Happy Holidays
December 24, 2010 at 8:40 am | Posted in Orel Hershiser, Scott Podsednik | 35 Comments
…and all I want under my tree is for the Reds or Angels to do us a solid and turn their supposed interest in Scott Podsednik into a real signing, thus taking the never-ending temptation away from Ned Colletti.
******
We all like to act as though our favorite team doesn’t get the respect it deserves, I know. Yet Buster Olney’s poll of baseball executives about the top starting rotations in the game seems a bit off, no?
The Phillies got all 16 first-place votes, and the San Francisco Giants — with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Barry Zito and Madison Bumgarner — were an overwhelming pick as the second-best rotation. The results (a first-place vote was worth five points, a second-place vote was worth four points, etc.):
1. Philadelphia Phillies — 80 points (16 first place votes)
2. San Francisco Giants — 61 points (14 second-place votes, one third-place vote, one fourth-place vote)
3. Tampa Bay Rays — 24 points (including five third-place votes)
3. Boston Red Sox — 24 points (including two second-place votes).
5. Oakland Athletics — 14 points
6. St. Louis Cardinals — 12 points
7. Milwaukee Brewers — 10 points
8. Chicago White Sox — 6 points
9. Atlanta Braves — 5 points
10. Detroit Tigers — 2 points
You’ll get no argument here that the Phillies are the top of the class. Yet shouldn’t the Dodgers, with arguably the deepest rotation in the NL, at least place in the top 1/3 of the sport?
Last week, in the aftermath of the Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum deals, Milwaukee blog The Brewers Bar tried to rank where the new-and-improved Brewer rotation would rank in the league by 2010 WAR (which is admittedly not perfect, as 2011 performances won’t be identical, but close enough). They actually omitted the Dodgers at first as well, until it was pointed out that the 16.7 WAR of the expected LA top five is actually superior to everyone except for the Phillies. That’s right, higher than St. Louis’ 16.0 and San Francisco’s 15.7. You know why? Because while Clayton Kershaw & Chad Billingsley may not be Tim Lincecum & Matt Cain or Chris Carpenter & Adam Wainwright (though you could certainly argue they’re not far off), it takes five men to have a rotation, not two or three.
I mean, Detroit? Sure, I’d love to have Justin Verlander fronting my rotation, and Max Scherzer‘s a quality young arm. Beyond that they have… Rick Porcello, a talented prospect who had nearly a 5.00 ERA last year? Converted reliever Phil Coke?
There’s plenty of reasons to bag on the Dodgers – believe me, I know. Let’s at least give credit where credit is due, and from 1-5 (and even 6), the Dodgers look to have one of the most solid rotations in the big leagues.
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Totally unrelated: we all loved Orel Hershiser, right? The 1988 season that still ranks among the greatest of all time, the scoreless inning streak, the ’88 playoff performance, the 19-3 1985, several quality seasons and postseasons with Cleveland after leaving the Dodgers; put it all together, and it adds up to 51.5 WAR, good for 58th all time among pitchers.
Orel Hershiser’s one of the best pitchers in Dodger history. But he’s not a Hall of Famer, I think we can all agree. That WAR total looks a lot less impressive when you realize that some of the comparable totals around him belong to guys like David Wells, Kevin Appier, Dave Steib, and Andy Pettitte. Those are pitchers who were very successful over a very long period – at times amongst the best in the game – yet fall just short of immortality. The Hall of Fame agreed; Hershiser received 11.2% of the vote in his first year of eligibility in 2006, and that fell to 4.4% in 2007, after which he was removed from the ballot.
The only reason I bring this up is because someone on Twitter – and I completely cannot remember who, so apologies – pointed out that Hershiser is a very similar, and in many ways superior, pitcher to Jack Morris. They each pitched in parts of 18 seasons, and they each are known for superlative playoff performances (Hershiser in 1988 and 1995-97, Morris in 1991). They had identical winning percentages and K/9 rates, and while Morris had more wins, Hershiser beats him in WHIP, ERA+, BB/9, and postseason stats (Morris had quite a few stinkers in October). Despite pitching 700 more innings, Morris gets destroyed in career WAR, at only 39.3 to Hershiser’s 51.5. That puts him in the range of Al Leiter, Tom Candiotti, and Brad Radke.
Orel Hershiser, a superior pitcher, fell off the ballot after just two years. Yet Jack Morris, a lesser performer, made it up to 44% last year in his 10th year, and seems likely to get even closer to induction – if not all the way in – this year. Just remember that when the results are announced.
Hershiser was a very good pitcher who falls short of the Hall of Fame standard. If Morris makes it in, what do you say to Orel?
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I want Podsednik to go to the Reds because I want the Sh**ville Angels to suffer and have another losing season. Hopefully, Podsednik signing to the Reds or someone else will make him try to trade for Carlos Quentin.
Comment by Eduardo— December 24, 2010 #
If you want the Angels to lose, wouldn’t you *want* them to sign Podsednik?
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— December 24, 2010 #
The Angels signing Scotty Pods would be great after missing out on Crawford.
Comment by Juan Pierre— December 24, 2010 #
My thoughts exactly, lol
Comment by Wil— December 24, 2010 #
Well guys, if you look at Scotty’s stats over the years, he is better as an American League player. For example, in 2008 as a Colorado Rocky, Scotty had a .253 batting average after playing 93 games. However, he would return to the White Sox in 2009 and had a .304 batting average after playing 132 games. This is why I don’t want him to be an Angel.
Comment by Eduardo— December 25, 2010 #
That’s not really enough to go on though, Eduardo.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— December 25, 2010 #
His .300 BA is deceiving, he hits nothing but singles and his OBP is about the same.
Comment by DodgersKings323— December 26, 2010 #
Alright, let’s see what would happen if Scotty’s an Angel.
Comment by Eduardo— December 26, 2010 #
Good comp on the Hershiser thing, I love it.
I just wanna add how goddamn arbitrary it is that the writers of the BBWAA convinced themselves that Morris is deserving. The best reason why Morris (that I’ve seen) was “we’re never gonna see another 300-game winner b/c of the 5-man rotation, so 250 is about the best we’re gonna see again.”
Comment by dingers— December 24, 2010 #
Ah, found it:
http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/yankees/e-boland-and-the-bombers-1.812003/hall-of-fame-voting-for-2011-1.2510734
Comment by dingers— December 24, 2010 #
Ugh.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— December 24, 2010 #
If Morris makes it in what do you say to Orel?
I think the line starts behind Blyleven.
Comment by Mike— December 24, 2010 #
Sure, but I think Blyleven does make it in this year.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— December 24, 2010 #
Jon Heyman wrote one of the most ridiculous columns I’ve ever seen, with the subject being why he voted for Morris and didn’t vote for Blyleven. Some of the lines were classic. His primary justification for keeping Blyleven out and putting Morris in was because the writers constantly underrated Blyleven during his career, he didn’t have enough wins, and he didn’t have any signature postseason performances. Even though Blyleven has two World Series rings and pitched better in both the playoffs and World Series than Morris. Even though Blyleven has 33 more wins than Morris and a much better career ERA. Here’s the link if you want to laugh or just gape in astonishment at the stupidity:
http://tinyurl.com/23txcaf
Comment by The Dude Abides— December 24, 2010 #
My favorite excerpt:
“Morris has a high lifetime ERA, 3.90. But some of that is due to the 6.19 and 5.60 marks he put up in his final two seasons. And part of it is due to him pitching to the scoreboard, which the very best pitchers could do.”
Blyleven had the third-most 1-0 victories of any pitcher in major league history, and the most in the past 75 years or so.
Comment by The Dude Abides— December 24, 2010 #
I agree that it’s a sin that Blyleven hasn’t received the honor yet. Like Ronnie Santo, maybe they do wait until you’re dead because there’s no excuse for one of the best 3B of all history not garnering enough support. Of course, there are a few others who played at an exemplary level who have to buy a ticket like you and me, D. Abides.
Comment by Pete Sweeney— December 24, 2010 #
Blyleven is the best pitcher ever born in Zeist, the Netherlands, one of those areas of the world that seems sketchy. What countries, for example, comprise the Netherlands? And just why are they in the “nether” part of the world? Aren’t the nether regions someplace down THERE (and I don’t mean down under). Do the kids leave out wooden shoes for Kris Kringle to fill with candy? Or are they cashing in on legalized pot? As with the Native Americans, the Netherlander is fraught with stereotypes that obviously don’t apply, but people still seem to hold. Is Bert Blyleven someone who fits that mold or breaks it? You know 13 more wins in a 22 win career and we wouldn’t even be having this conversation. He would have been enshrined, and rightfully so, a decade ago. The negatives of course are only 2 All-Stars, only 4 top-10 Cy Young finishes, and one 20 win season. His 3.31/1.20 ERA/WHIP over that long career speaks volumes for his greatness, mostly done in the AL. For some reason, the court of public opinion never realized the greatness of Blyleven. Hey, all the pitchers, Wells, Pettitte, Stieb, Hershiser, Morris listed upstairs had their own greatness but numbers speak louder specifically for Hall enrollment. Once you’re in they can’t take it away from you. The tough part is getting in but we should be seeing Mr. Blyleven at that podium in the next few months in Cooperstown.
Comment by george hubschman— December 25, 2010 #
Blyleven should have been in the Hall of Fame a while back and not waiting by the phone in what should be his final try. Blyleven’s 60 shut outs, I believe, are more then Morris and Hershiser put together and, when he retired, he had 3700 K’s, which put him in the top 3 of all-time. His 287 wins speak for themselves. And, he wasn’t blessed with pitching on great teams! My feeling is that Morris is more deserving then Hershiser just on the 50 more career wins alone. Morris didn’t have the talent of Orel but he gutted out a fine career in his own right much the way David Wells did. I just feel that Morris should be enshrined or close to it. The funny thing is when all is said and done, Jon Garland may have as many wins as Hershiser so, I know, wins don’t mean a damn thing. Just how I feel. And, you know what, Hershiser would be the first guy to call and congratulate Morris on the honor of standing with the greatest of all-time.
Comment by Abner Clarke— December 24, 2010 #
I have no problem with Jack Morris getting in the Hall. I am surprised though that Hershiser was dissed by the voting crowd with a 4.4%. That’s almost David Segui like. Yes, Hershiser was a very good major league pitcher and didn’t deserve the ignominy of having the floor open up from under him and swallowing him up like that. Morris had 254 wins and didn’t always pitch for great teams either. But I have a feeling he was just a little above Hershiser. You say something interesting, and you’re right, that Orel Hershiser would be the first to congratulate Morris on his induction. Blyleven, as with guys like Gil Hodges and Ron Santo, are guys that have benn mysteriously overlooked over the years. The voters should make it right by Blyleven this season. He did win 287 games after all and was as durable a pitcher as they come!
Comment by Pete Sweeney— December 24, 2010 #
I remember reading commentary where someone was comparing Drysdale to some other pitcher and saying that if Drysdale was HOF then this other guy certainly should be also. These choices are subjective, and rightly or wrongly depend on things other than just statistics. Drysdale was a colorful personality and player and a good story. What more could a sports writer want?
If memory serves me, I think the extent of Kevin Brown’s contract with the Dodgers was largely dependent on one game where he was matched with Randy Johnson, and beat him. All of a sudden many people concluded that Brown was the better pitcher. It was an impression without necessarily being true.
Comment by Ray— December 24, 2010 #
Outstanding point about Hershiser/Morris. And kudos to the person who brought it up. By those numbers, neither are Hall of Famers. Orel’s WAR ranking that high is awfully impressive, though.
Comment by Dustin Nosler— December 24, 2010 #
Mike,
Just wanted to say that I love the column. I have been reading every post for the last 2 years and I love it. I don’t comment much but I often read through them all. I look forward to reading you for another year to come…Merry Christmas
Tim
Comment by Tim— December 24, 2010 #
Tim, thanks – I appreciate that. Thanks for reading, and feel free to comment as often as you like.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— December 25, 2010 #
Hard to believe the Dodgers rotation didn’t crack that list. FWIW, I also think the Braves aren’t ranked high enough either. I see the Braves starting 5 as almost a dead heat with the Dodgers.
Comment by carolinabluedodger— December 24, 2010 #
I think the Dodgers rotation actually tied for 10th. I can see it. And that must be the reason early Power Rankings have the Dodgers at 15th. I can see that too. This team has mediocre written all over it.
Having said that, bounceback years from Ethier, Loney, Kemp and Broxton would change those rankings quickly.
Comment by Rory— December 25, 2010 #
What is taking colletti so long to sign milledge?msti can l.a some how sneak in and get beltre or is he waiting for a bigger deal that he wont get?
Comment by Pete guerrro— December 24, 2010 #
No question that the classic WS game where Morris went extra innings to beat Smoltz and the Braves is what’s behind the distorted view of Morris overall. Odd, that Hershiser’s superlative 88 doesn’t carry the same weight.
Comment by jWerthfan— December 24, 2010 #
It’s unbelievable to me that the Rays are so high, and Boston too. David Price, while very good, was overrated by the 19 wins, and Matt Garza is just overrated. And who do they have besides those two? Despite being in the AL East, Tropicana is considered more of a pitcher’s park than the Dodger Stadium. The AL East is a tough hitting division, but come on, I think those two teams are up there for that reason alone. Besides Lester and Bucholz, Boston doesn’t look great either. Lester, though very good, is overrated, (he should not have been in the talks for the cy young last year, being as his numbers were almost identical to Kershaw’s and not even close to Hernandez’s) and I don’t see Bucholz putting up another 2.33 ERA season. I think the Dodgers rotation is better than the Brewers, though of course with their big singings, it would be a faux pas to rate them too low. I expect as much out of Kershaw in 2011 as I do out of Greinke, Billingsley is comparable to Marcum, Kuroda to Gallardo (Gallardo is also overrated, he has only put up average to above average seasons so far), I think Lilly > Wolf, and Garland + Padilla is definitely better than whatever the Brewers’ fifth spot is.
Comment by Bip— December 24, 2010 #
Lol, singings, I meant signings.
Comment by Bip— December 24, 2010 #
Happy Holidays and a Merry New Year MSTI! I didn’t put anything Dodger on the tree, but it is silver, white and blue :D When i’m done with my Dodger custom PC and remodeled living room i will post some pics.
Comment by DodgersKings323— December 26, 2010 #
The Hershiser/Morris comparison is like the Maury Wills/Phil Rizutto or Bill Mazeroski analogy. That’s why I’ve always said if those two guys belong in the HOF, so does Maury. Of course, they weren’t black guys dating Hollywood stars like Doris Day and if they had any addictions, they weren’t so well chronicled as Maury’s was.
Blyleven and his knee buckling curve ball belongs.
Comment by SamAdams— December 26, 2010 #
Mazeroski is likely another guy most known for a moment, rather than a stellar career. Then why not Bernie Carbo…Kirk Gibson…Don Larsen?
Comment by jWerthfan— December 27, 2010 #
The Gnats’ rotation is greatly overrated because of an improbable 2010 that is unlikely to be repeated, to say the least, while the Dodgers’ rotation is underrated because of the team’s almost equally improbable shortcomings. Only the Phillies are arguably better.
Comment by WBB— December 27, 2010 #
Lincecum did a lot worse than normal in 2010, and Matt Cain did pretty average based on past performance. Barry Zito was mediocre, as he has been in San Francisco, so he will probably be about the same. I have no idea what to expect out of Sanchez, but last year was his career year, so if anyone declines, it’s him. Bumgarner is a complete wildcard, but I think he’s going to be great. He performed in the minors, performed in the Majors, and performed in the playoffs, and he’s going to be 21. If he was on our team he’d be the second Kershaw.
Comment by Bip— December 27, 2010 #
[...] than pointing out that Jack Morris wasn’t really any better than Orel Hershiser the other day, I’ve tried to steer clear of the Hall of Fame debate around here. Part of that is because [...]
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