On What To Expect From Mike MacDougal
March 18, 2011 at 12:58 pm | Posted in Mike MacDougal | 33 Comments
Hey, I like Mike MacDougal just fine. He’s carved himself out a nice little career, pitching in parts of ten seasons and being paid roughly $8m to do so. With heat in the mid-90s, he’s had a few seasons that were pretty good (2003, 2006), and a few seasons that were slightly less-than-good (uh, all of the rest). He even made himself an All-Star team in that 2003 season, thus earning him the legal right to forever be known as “All-Star Mike MacDougal“, assuming that no one takes the time to see that the ’03 Royals rotation was led by luminaries like Darrell May, Chris George, and Runelvys Hernandez.
Since he left the Royals midway through 2006 via trade, he’s bounced around from team to team, spending time in Chicago, Charlotte, Jupiter (that’d be Marlins spring camp), Harrisburg, Syracuse, Washington, Memphis, and St. Louis. He carries around the usual tale of spring redemption - though I have to admit, “I used a neti pot to clear up a sinus infection that left me weak” is a new one on me – and he’ll be 34 this year. According to his baseball-reference similarity score, the list of relievers who he most resembles through age 33 reads like a who’s who of “hey, that guy existed!” – Doug Henry, Rudy Seanez, and Scott Proctor among them.
This is all fine, though. He’s still a live arm, and this is exactly the type of guy you bring in to camp on a non-roster invite, hoping to strike gold - if by “gold” you mean, “I hope one of those 20 jokers can give me a few league-average innings.” Thanks to the injury to Vicente Padilla, the less-than-impressive springs by Scott Elbert & Ron Mahay, and the stop-me-if-you’ve-heard-this-before disappearance of Ronald Belisario, MacDougal stands a pretty fair chance of breaking camp with the big club.
That’s fine too, because every team has one of those guys at the bottom of the pen, and those spots are so fungible that the likelihood of MacDougal lasting past May is probably pretty slim, anyway. Here’s what worries me, though, and while I’m picking on Jon Heyman here, he’s not the only one:
#dodgers think theyve fixed the talented but perpetually underachieving Mike MacDougal (0.00 ERA so far this spring)
If you’re a regular reader of the blog, you know how I feel about ERA as an indicator of pitching value. You probably also know that I think it’s even more useless for relievers, because of small samples, and because it often depends so much on inherited runners. Take those two factors and mash them in a blender with “he’s pitched just five spring training innings, generally late in games against minor leaguers at that” and you’ll have a pretty good idea of how meaningful his 0.00 ERA really is.
Remember, this is a guy who over the last four seasons has pitched in 144 major league games, and has a K/BB rate of 99/95, while allowing more than a hit per inning, and his minor league numbers haven’t been much better. I’m not immune to the idea that guys can get healthy or fix a mechanical issue that brings improved results, but rarely does that happen at 34, and in this case, the nice ERA isn’t really justified. I’ll let my Twitter friends, all three of whom are BP writers, explain:
5.1 IP, 4 BB, 2 K #stillbroke
Trusting ERA for RP is already dumb as it is. Spring, in 5 IP is downright criminal.
the Zombie Ortiz Brothers say hi
Jay nails it there, because don’t forget that it was just one year ago that Ramon and Russ Ortiz weaseled their way onto the roster because they had nice spring ERAs of 0.96 and 2.50, despite years of mediocrity. How’d that work out?
Hey, I’d like nothing more than for MacDougal to come out and succeed. It’d be great for him and for the team. Let’s just not act as though five relatively meaningless spring innings are more important than four sustained years of poor performance, okay?
******
Casey Blake may need to start the season on the disabled list, claims Don Mattingly. If so, that’d slide Juan Uribe to 3B, and open up the possibility that my worst-case scenario of Aaron Miles starting at 2B on Opening Day (remember, he’s a switch-hitter, and the Giants will start righty Tim Lincecum) is one step closer towards coming true. Not that I think it will – Jamey Carroll is the more likely choice, handedness aside. But Carroll is battling a sore finger that has cost him some time, so…
33 Comments »
RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI
Leave a Reply
How Many McCourt Sins?
MSTI on the web
MSTI Library
Blog at WordPress.com. | Theme: Pool by Borja Fernandez.
Entries and comments feeds.
McDougal’s stuff is good enough to be a very good pitcher, if he just found control. Yep, 4 BB against 5.1 innings worth of suspects and prospects won’t change that big IF.
Comment by SamAdams— March 18, 2011 #
But Sam, you don’t get it. He has a 0.00 ERA! Zero!!1!
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— March 18, 2011 #
did you see his walkapalooza the other day in the 9th against arizona? two walks and a hit batter. only a line drive double play bailed him out of that one.
Comment by format— March 18, 2011 #
I’m not sure I care if Blake starts on the DL or not. Is he really better then anyone else at this point? I know spring stats don’t mean much, but .077? Why at age 37 does he assume he’s the starter no matter what? I had a dog named McDougal once. HE was fat and lazy, but he had a good K/BB…
Comment by Scott— March 18, 2011 #
I don’t have much to say about MacDougal, but I have to ask if Marcus Thames really just tried to steal home. Really? Also four no-hit innings from Rubby De La Rosa.
Comment by Bip— March 18, 2011 #
I also noticed the four no-hit innings, itd be nice to let him have a shot at the fifth starter spot, if only for a few cycles thru the rotation to see what he can do….. We are already gambling that garlands arm won’t fly off with a pitch, might as well see what an up and coming young gun could do for us
Comment by Andy— March 18, 2011 #
And this year was supposed to be the year where we didn’t have to resort to starting someone who has never pitched above double A, ha ha.
Comment by Bip— March 19, 2011 #
Anyone can pitch this time of year in front of only 6,000 fans.
Comment by Ken— March 18, 2011 #
Anyone except Ron Mahay.
Comment by Dave— March 21, 2011 #
Everyone is using that quote, but i take it as sarcasm as “Oh yah the Dodgers think they struck gold with this guy but his ERA is misleading and he stinks”………
Comment by DodgersKings323— March 18, 2011 #
I tend to agree…don’t think it was serious statement by Weisman….
Comment by Jon#7#22— March 19, 2011 #
You mean Heyman, right? I think he was being serious.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— March 19, 2011 #
My bad I read Weisman for some reason…You’re right then!
Comment by Jon#7#22— March 19, 2011 #
Msti should l.a take a look at luis castillo or is he better suited for the tv show the walking dead?
Comment by Pete guerrero— March 19, 2011 #
Ugh, no. He can only play one position – not well – and can’t really hit. Pass.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— March 19, 2011 #
Thankfully the Phillies picked him up.
Comment by Wil— March 20, 2011 #
One of my wishes at the start of ST was for IDJ to push Uribe to third. Looks like that may be a possibility. DeJesus can hit in the two hole. I think. I hope. The other wish was for Gwynn to win a starting outfield spot. If he can hit, I would like to see him do it from the two hole. If I get both my wishes, we have two two hole hitters, which is two less eight hole hitters, of which we currently have five. Make sense? Does to me.
MacDougal? Why? Hopefully, we won’t need him.
Comment by Rory— March 19, 2011 #
2 more hits, an RBI and a run scored, as well as a stellar diving play at third where he showed off his arm to get the guy on a bang bang play at 1st base. The dream that is “Aaron Miles your opening day 2nd baseman” all but seems a reality now. Seriously he could go hitless the rest of camp and probably make the squad. Also 2 hits (1 a high chopper over a drawn in 3rd baseman the other a blooper) and 2 runs scored for Juan Castro. Is it really possible that the Dodgers bench to start the season (If Blake is on the DL) could be Miles, Castro, Gibbons, Thames and Navarro? Excuse me while I go throw up now.
Comment by Pasty Rasta— March 19, 2011 #
A day to watch a lot of back-ups play.
Great play by Miles, I had the runner safe. A couple of unearned runs and the Dogs get the draw.
Eugenio Velez. Why?
Good crowd.
Comment by Rory— March 19, 2011 #
As long as we’re only looking at 2011 Spring numbers, our answer for the last infield spot should be Corey Smith. The former 1st round pick is sporting a spring slash line of .750/.833/2.500 (for those counting at home, that’s an OPS of 3.333). He’s hit two bombs, can play 1st and 3rd.
Don’t worry, I didn’t know who he was either until last week, when my buddies and I watched the Dodgers play the Royals, and we had to ask around to find out who the massive dude playing first in the last few innings was. Then we saw him hit a 420 ft absolute rope line drive. I think it was still rising when it hit the outfield berm. He’s now my favorite player.
Comment by Dave— March 21, 2011 #
FREE IVAN DE JESUS JR!
Comment by Eephus Blue— March 20, 2011 #
“my worst-case scenario of Aaron Miles” etc. blah, blah, blah.
What’s it going to take for you to get the boll weevil out of your derriere concerning Miles? The eye surgery he had has clearly made him a better player than he has been, he’s hitting well over .300 this Spring, yet somehow you refuse to see the obvious and continue to see him as he used to be. Perhaps you too should consider some eye surgery, or at least a visit to a proctologist.
Comment by Logan— March 20, 2011 #
Yeah, Mike is such a whiner. Heck, I don’t understand why they don’t use Miles as a closer. I mean, check out what he did in this one inning of work…
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=12560945
Screw Broxton and Kuo, get Miles out there with the game on the line!! LMAO
Comment by Wil— March 20, 2011 #
Pil, hows come you aren’t writing for, Saturday Night Live? They appreciate unfunny funny.
Comment by Logan— March 21, 2011 #
“The eye surgery he had has clearly made him a better player than he has been, he’s hitting well over .300 this Spring,”
If 35 spring at-bats is enough to prove this, then I bet I could prove Albert Pujols is the worst hitter in the league and Juan Castro (who’s hitting .333) is one of the best.
Comment by Bip— March 21, 2011 #
All joking aside, check out the latest from Tony Jackson…
http://sports.espn.go.com/los-angeles/mlb/news/story?id=6238234
Some interesting tidbits. Elbert using an adjustment in game and having success with it while Honeycutt says De La Rosa could be ready to pitch this season. Would nice to see some ML success out of the young arms, especially Elbert.
Comment by Wil— March 20, 2011 #
A lot of guys with linemen numbers and no names on their backs getting some serious looks. I would hope that, depending on how the real team comes out of the starting gate, the guys we are seeing will play, one way or another, in deadline moves. If the team stalls, and the turnstiles reflect a negative fan opinion, this organization could finally punt in July.
Having said that, McCourt is known to be stubborn. We could get another brilliant Jed move in July no matter what the record.
Yeah, Miles. Sure, why not. We got back-ups all over the place so, Jamey Carroll’s always come in handy.
Comment by Rory— March 21, 2011 #
re: macdougal. (it’s now more like 8 innings of 0.00). everything said is fine & good. opinions…..not gonna argue. but some facts are wrong.
“four sustained years of poor performance”, incorrect. saved 20 of 21 games for nats in 2009. highest successful close percentage in NL. lifetime 70 saves, 20 blown, broxton 77/32. opinion alert: not saying he’s rivera, but the guy can close.
Comment by b. dover— March 22, 2011 #
Come on, do I really need to explain why that argument is ridiculous?
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— March 22, 2011 #
bottom line….he’s had a great spring. he makes the squad. wanna bet?
Comment by b. dover— March 22, 2011 #
Oh, I totally agree he’ll make the squad. Never said otherwise. I just said not to hold out high hopes for him.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— March 22, 2011 #
WALKAPALOOZA 2011!!! the Ravine tour!
Comment by format— March 22, 2011 #
[...] people were putting far too much importance on five scoreless spring innings (to that point), I looked at what was realistic to expect from him: Remember, this is a guy who over the last four seasons has pitched in 144 major league games, and [...]
Pingback by MSTI’s 2011 in Review: Relievers, Part 3 « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— November 13, 2011 #