Matt Kemp Is Going to Destroy Worlds
March 24, 2011 at 10:45 am | Posted in John Lindsey, Matt Kemp | 33 Comments
I’ve been relentlessly down on James Loney for a while now*, just like I was on Russell Martin. I’ve said that Casey Blake is cooked, Mike MacDougal isn’t to be counted on, left field is a mess, and Andre Ethier can’t hit lefties. I’m occasionally accused of being too negative, and while that might be true, there’s a lot to worry about regarding the 2011 Dodgers.
(*Regarding Loney, I’d like to note here that I’m in an NL-only draft with several of my Baseball Prospectus cohorts, in a league which requires full 40-man rosters. As you can imagine, the pickings in the lower rounds of this draft are beyond slim. We’re in the 35th round, so over 400 players are off the board. Loney remains available.)
All that being said, I do want to take this opportunity to reiterate something optimistic that I’ve been saying all winter: Matt Kemp is going to have a monster year.
This all goes back to last October, where I argued that while 2010 was definitely disappointing, particularly on defense and on the bases, as far as “disaster” years go, you can certainly do worse than a 107 OPS+ and a career-high 28 homers. That’s not excusing him, but it’s just recognizing that he wasn’t exactly Andruw Jones circa 2008, either. Remember, this is what I said about him on the final day of the season, October 3:
His clashes with the current coaching staff have been well-documented – though he seems to have a good relationship with Don Mattingly – and if there’s anyone who looks to benefit from the post-Torre era, it might just be Kemp, my early choice for the “No, Chad Billingsley’s career wasn’t dead after one bad year either, now was it?” award next year.
My positive feelings about him continued in his 2010 season in review piece later that month, where I noted that he had not only taken responsibility for his subpar year, he’d ended the season on a five-homers-in-five-games tear while ridding himself of the distractions that had derailed his season – Joe Torre, Larry Bowa, Bob Schaefer, and even Rhianna, if you believe in that sort of thing. (Rob Neyer had a great look at the shortcomings of the 2010 coaching staff, too.) Again, Kemp is not to be excused for being unable to work through all that, but nor should it be ignored that from all indications, he wasn’t getting a lot of support internally either.
My optimism increased when we learned more about how Mattingly was relating to the younger players, and particularly when his staff was finalized and it included both Tim Wallach and Davey Lopes, who’s renowned as one of – if not the best – baserunning coaches in baseball and who has seemingly made it his mission to turn Kemp around.
I bring this up today not just because Kemp has hit five homers with a .320 batting average this spring, though those are both great signs. It’s also because of Dylan Hernandez’ story on Kemp’s relationship with Lopes from today’s Los Angeles Times, which is full of Kemp and Lopes saying exactly the right things, with some real physical changes to back them up.
On Kemp’s improved relationship with Lopes as opposed to Bowa & Schaefer:
He says Lopes will help him steal more bases. The player who used to be extremely thin-skinned about his shortcomings sounds almost proud recalling how his new coach made him recognize the mistakes he used to make. He even goes out of his way to reveal that the dignified former Dodgers infielder has a sense of humor.
“We’re having fun and getting work done at the same time,” Kemp says.
Conversations with Kemp about coaches weren’t always like this. Asked last season about his coaches, Kemp often turned defensive. He said he had no problem with Bob Schaefer, the since-departed bench coach with whom he had an in-game blowup. He said the same about the also-exiled Larry Bowa, whom Stewart called out for making critical comments directed at his client.
But Kemp never said he liked Schaefer or Bowa, either.
On Lopes helping Kemp with his baserunning:
So, as soon as spring training opened, even while most position players were still at their off-season homes, Kemp and Lopes got to work on the back fields of the team’s Camelback Ranch training facility.
Standing near first base, Lopes asked Kemp to show him how he took leads and broke to second base, or how he retreated to first base on a pickoff attempt.
Lopes noticed something: wasted motion.
On Kemp being in shape…
Kemp, who lost 15 pounds while working out with professional sprinters over the winter, says he absorbed what Lopes taught him.
On Lopes improving Kemp’s defense:
Also in charge of preparing the Dodgers’ outfield, Lopes offered Kemp similar advice on playing defense.
Instead of leaning forward with hands on knees in center field, Lopes wants Kemp to stay a little more upright.
“When you set down and rise up, the ball’s already on you,” Lopes says.
I realize it’s spring, and that everyone has a nice, rosy outlook this time of the year. That’s fine, and it’ll take more than some spring dingers and saying the right things to prove Kemp right. But the signs are all there for a massive year – no one’s questioned his talent, but now he’s motivated to prove himself, with distractions gone and the right instruction in place.
Matt Kemp is still just 26. The two-year contract he signed after 2009 is up this year. He’s got a lot to prove – and mark my words, he’s going to do it.
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Depending on how the last week of camp shakes out, we might see as many as five spots on the 25-man roster given to players who most thought had no shot when players reported just a month ago: Aaron Miles, Hector Gimenez, Mike MacDougal, Tim Redding, and Ron Mahay. That means the team is going to have to come up with some 40-man roster spots, with the exception of Gimenez, who is already on. The roster currently sits at 39, since Ronald Belisario is on the restricted list.
Now while it’s possible all five make the squad, I doubt that’s really what’ll happen. Gimenez isn’t a lock, so his spot could open up, Mahay hasn’t been impressive, and they may choose to not keep Redding since Jon Garland and Vicente Padilla are each reportedly recovering quickly from injury. (Update: Dylan Hernandez reports that Gimenez replaced Dioner Navarro in today’s lineup, because Navarro felt something in his side while swinging today and is headed for an MRI.)
So rather than try to fit the pieces together, since there’s so much in flux, let’s look at the current 40-man and see who is most in jeopardy should more of these NRI’s make it than we think. There’s Xavier Paul, who we’ve talked about extensively, though I do think he’ll break camp on the team. There’s Jay Gibbons, whose spot may or may not really be in danger, despite my concerns. There’s even Jamie Hoffmann, who’s lost his spot before, though I think that’s unlikely.
Those outfielders are all possibilities, but I think it’s going to have to end up being old friend John Lindsey, who never really got going in camp thanks to a calf injury. There’s really no reason to keep him on the 40-man; he’s not going to make the team, and no one’s going to claim him. He’ll almost certainly be DFA’d, pass through, and end up back in Albuquerque.
Lindsey’s the obvious choice, but if more than one spot is needed, you might also look at 25-year-old Javy Guerra, a veteran of seven minor league seasons with the Dodgers. His 2.33 ERA in 28 AA games last year may look shiny, but the 7.3 BB/9 (and 5.3 career) don’t really back it up, nor does the 1.603 career WHIP. He suffered shoulder soreness last year and then had to deal with an infection caused by a cut while washing dishes this winter. Guerra reportedly has a plus fastball, and I’m sure the Dodgers would prefer to hold onto him, but at 25, he’s no longer a kid, and his struggles at AA could make him vulnerable if a spot is needed.
******
A quick heads-up from me: don’t expect much from me through the weekend. I’ll be headed to Florida to catch some spring games, in this case Astros @ Yankees on Friday, and Jays @ Phillies on Saturday. Before the inevitable response of “Florida’s not Arizona!”, don’t forget that I did go to Camelback last year.
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>> let’s look at the current 40-man and see who is most in jeopardy should more of these NRI’s make it than we think.
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Well, anyone who is out of options is either going to make the 25-man, or will be put on waivers. I believe Xavier Paul and Hector Gimenez are both out of options; I’m not sure whether there are others as well. There are also a few players whose contracts say they will become free agents if they don’t make the team (25-man), although I’m pretty sure at least some of those clauses don’t take effect till some time in June, so they can be stashed at ABQ temporarily.
Comment by nsxtasy— March 24, 2011 #
Yes, Paul & Gimenez are both out of options.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— March 24, 2011 #
I’m with you on Kemp.
I would say that Miles was on my initial Opening Day roster, back on 2/15, and that Mahay jumped on as soon as Beliario was AWOL.
Comment by Jon Weisman— March 24, 2011 #
I agree, I think Miles has a 100% chance. Mahay probably still makes it, though he hasn’t done much to distinguish himself.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— March 24, 2011 #
Agree with you Kemp. If he does have a great season, can the Dodgers’ MVP be Davey Lopes?
I just made my own 25-man prediction on my blog. I also singled out guys like Guerra and Hoffmann as guys who could be DFA’d to make room for the likes of Miles and MacDougal. I have Mahay over Elbert because of “veteran goodness,” despite Elbert’s recent resurgence.
I’m not sure Guerra would get snatched up, seeing as he can’t throw strikes. His arm is intriguing, though. Hoffmann has a little value because of his ability to play a quality outfield.
Comment by Dustin Nosler— March 24, 2011 #
Finally some Positivity!!!!….I always love your work, and agree with you more times than not. However, man it sure is refreshing to hear some GOOD news on the Dodgers a week away from Opening Day!
Comment by Tripp— March 24, 2011 #
If John Lindsey gets DFA’d it just goes to show that if you give it your all and persevere one day your dream might sort of come true, but ultimately be a huge letdown. Is this the message the Dodgers want to send to all the youngsters out there (as well as to all of the twentysomethings trying to find their way in this awful economy who live vicariously through the successes of people like John Lindsey)?
Comment by Justin— March 24, 2011 #
What? That seems a bit hyperbolic. John Lindsey’s a nice story, but he’s not really worth a 40-man spot and he’s not going to have much of a career. Sad for him, but it’s the truth.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— March 24, 2011 #
A bit? One can work as hard as he wants/can, but he still has to do a good job or be good at something to progress.
Lindsey has gotten farther than any of use ever have or will. I’m sure he wanted to be a HOF baseball player, but it just wasn’t in the cards. He has lived the dream, though. He can be proud of that.
Comment by Dustin Nosler— March 24, 2011 #
I was concerned that the cynical humor would go over everyone’s head. Fears confirmed. #losing
Comment by Justin— March 24, 2011 #
Still, in 2011, there is no way to clearly convey subtle sarcasm/cynicism over the Internet.
Comment by Dustin Nosler— March 25, 2011 #
Good piece Mike.
I am hopeful on Kemp, but until he shows me he has plugged the holes in his swing if I am pitching against him it’s still going to be high and tight low and away.
As for Lindsey and Paul, until the Dodgers admit it’s rebuilding time we are going to see the JaMarcus Gwybbons (love that) and “our best” for Blake and Dotel in our future. I am on record saying as long as McCourt is in the drivers seat I think it’s fourth and long and we should punt, but, maybe that is wrong attitude. It is L.A. and it doesn’t seem impossible to catch the three teams that were above us last year.
So….Go Blue! F the gints! Viva los Doyers…. and all that.
Comment by Rory— March 24, 2011 #
I like Elbert to make the team. They seemed to have fixed something as he hasn’t been walking guys which was his only issue. Ron Mahay? Bleh.
I was hoping Blake would be out longer because I think even if he’s healthy he is going to lay a big turd this year. He started to look really old last year. Uribe at 3B & De Jesus at 2B!
Oh, and Florida is not Arizona. ;)
Comment by Scott— March 24, 2011 #
I couldn’t agree more. Matt is going to have a huge season but until Vladdy teaches him how to hit those ones off his shoetops he has to show more plate discipline. Just imagine Matt with Loneys knowledge of the strike zone, it’d be like Albert who?
Does Kemp have one or two arb years before he is a FA? I think we had better buy them out plus about 3 more before he hits free agency.
Comment by Michael— March 24, 2011 #
The Dodgers are suddenly like the ’27 Yankees. 7 R in the bottom of the 9th vs the Rockies. Of course the pitchers for Colorado were Michael Marbry and Chris Malone, who pitched more like Sam “May Day” Malone! Unbelievable, DeJesus with 3 H and A.J. Ellis with a 3-R bomb. Gabe Kapler even contributed. When I first heard about Ivan DeJesus about 3 springs ago, I thought it was his father trying to make a comeback. The elder DeJesus was a marval at SS but not as much with the stick as his .254 BA in 4602 AB will attest. Let’s hope the son makes him proud. I wouldn’t mind seeing DeJesus in a little more than a subordinate role with the club. But, for that to happen, Aaron Miles will have to be dispatched to the nearest farm club. Kudos also to Hiroki Kuroda who didn’t have his best stuff but managed to hang in without injury. Because the way this spring is going around baseball, every time I look up, someone is getting dinged up. And I do have to make a decision on my $29 Brian Wilson in my expert $360-NL fantasy league. Help!
Comment by george hubschman— March 24, 2011 #
You hear about guys in the “best shape of their lives” are into yoga and meditation or just about any other story during the spring. But I believe it with Kemp. He looks focused both at the plate and in the field and could be poised for a big comeback season. The 5 HR in the last 5 games of ’10 may be a harbinger of things to come after he found out that Torre wasn’t coming back. Call it mental but as Yogi Berra once said, “90% of the game is half-mental!” Like you, George, not enough people listen to the “genius” of Yogi Berra.
Comment by Abner Clarke— March 25, 2011 #
Kemp didn’t say he was in the best shape of his life. He said he’s in the best shape he can be, which sets off my bullshit meter a little less than “best shape of my life.”
Also, when I was at Spring Training a few weeks ago, before the recent spat of articles about what great shape he’s in, it was immediately noticeable to my friends and I how much trimmer he was through the waist – not that he was ever fat, or too pudgy or anything like that.
Comment by Dave— March 25, 2011 #
Agreed, you can tell just by looking at Kemp that he slimmed down a bit and looks to be in good shape, doesn’t seem to be affecting his power at all so far (although just ST I know…)
Mike, I agree with your post as well, if the Dodgers don’t do anything this year, I doubt anyone will be able to rightly blame Kemp.
Comment by Jon#7#22— March 25, 2011 #
Remember, those last couple of roster slots go to the most marginal players on the team – the bullpen pitcher for “mop up” duty in blowouts, and the last bench guy who’s rarely used. And the roster WILL change once the season gets underway. Last year the Dodgers made NINE roster moves in April alone (and made at least that many in May, in June, in July, and in August).
Comment by nsxtasy— March 24, 2011 #
Yeah, 7 runs. That’s the good news. The bad news? How did our starters do against their starters?
Our back-ups took it to their minor league pitchers. I don’t know if you remember, but I believe Malone was a 24 year old in the Rookie League with the Dodgers a while back. Marbry is 25 and hasn’t played above A ball yet. I don’t think this game counts.
Comment by Rory— March 24, 2011 #
>> I don’t think this game counts.
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None of the spring training games count! :)
Comment by nsxtasy— March 24, 2011 #
Cannot for the life of me understand what happened last year. Guy comes under fire when he is still the best player on the team, yet guys like Loney can go under the radar for just being gritty, “playing the right way” a “good kid” or whatever nonsense.
I stopped watching the game in the 8th today :P
Comment by DodgersKings323— March 25, 2011 #
We don’t have complete insight into the clubhouse, so it’s impossible to know for sure but through all the criticism Kemp got last season, I don’t recall hearing the coaches mention anything about working with Kemp to try and remedy the things they complained about. Lopes right out of the gate is examining, diagnosing and working to correct the problems he sees. What a concept! Again, maybe we just didn’t hear much because the coaching staff was mum about their work last season, but they didn’t have any problems voicing their negativity. It’s good to see that Kemp is focused and ready to succeed. Maybe last season was a good experience for that reason if nothing else. I can’t believe how close we’re getting to the start of the season already.
Comment by Wil— March 25, 2011 #
“We don’t have complete insight into the clubhouse,”
sure we do Wil. It’s called “remote viewing” and Simers uses it all the time.
Yes it is good to see Kemp apparently focused again. Why was’t he focused last year? Doesn’t matter now does it. The coaches were of course right – we all saw Kemp make horrible plays on the bases and in center field. I can’t tell you how many times I saw him take strike one down the middle, swing at strike two around letters (that used to be a strike, now it’s a foot high) and then swing and miss at a curve at his ankles and 6″ outside. Maybe all of that ends this year.
If it does, then our clean-up spot is secure. With Ethier hitting third maybe that spot is secure too. Now, about the rest of that lineup………..
Comment by Rory— March 25, 2011 #
It’s well known that Kemp had very little experience at a young age with baseball because he was focused so much on basketball. He was rushed into the Majors with the hopes that his extreme athleticism and 5-tool potential would carry him early on and for the most part, it has. However, I think Lopes working on his jumps and body position and whatnot…fine tuning Kemp and getting him to maximize his potential is what has been needed to take him from good to great. It’s like putting shoes on a kid and telling ‘em to tie ‘em. Unfortunately, it’s a more painstaking process than that. As far as his hitting last season, Kensai over at MOKM and now TBLA has broken down that problem in great detail…
http://www.truebluela.com/2011/2/5/1947271/matt-kemps-2010-a-statistical-and-mechanical-analysis
http://www.memoriesofkevinmalone.com/2010/08/matt-kemps-struggles-statistical-and.html
As you will see, Kemp’s swing was more on par with his normal swing towards the end of the season when he was having success. So long as he stays on his game and doesn’t fall back into bad habits, we should see a resurgence with the bat I think. In my opinion, it’s the job of the coaches to analyze the players and make sure they’re keeping on track and not falling into those bad habits. The players obviously have to take that info and apply it to their game. That’s what I meant by focus…he now knows what his mechanical problems are and he can work to remedy them. I wasn’t referring to things like Rhianna and stuff like that, because unless they directly effect work ethic, then I don’t think it’s a factor. That’s just my 2 cents (although I’m basing my analysis of him off of info I gain from numerous articles & blogs of people who are much better versed on the subject than I am)
Comment by Wil— March 25, 2011 #
I can say this with absolute certainty…. one night with Rhianna would effect my work ethic.
Comment by Rory— March 25, 2011 #
Kemp hitting consistently, with some plate discipline, would be great to see. Ethier continuing his success and improvement would also be great (especially if he can crack the lefty barrier this year). Furcal remaining healthy enough is a huge factor. If those three things happen, that would give the Dodgers at least three good hitters, and a decent chance of scoring some runs.
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Good hitters, and good lineups, need more than just one guy raking. If Kemp is the only dangerous bat in the lineup, he’ll get pitched around (ala Bonds). He’s going to need support. If the Dodgers could get Uribe to be a little smarter, a little more selective at the plate (i.e., not try to jerk every single pitch out of the park), that could be a huge help. If Loney could finally discover the fountain of power, that would be wonderful. If Gwynn surprises, and becomes a reliable on-base threat, that would be great.
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Boy…this is a real season of “ifs” for the Dodgers…
Comment by Penguin's Pornstache— March 25, 2011 #
Amen to that ‘stache.
Comment by Rory— March 25, 2011 #
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