So It Turns Out That Clayton Kershaw Is Pretty Good
March 31, 2011 at 8:24 pm | Posted in Clayton Kershaw, Jonathan Broxton, Matt Kemp | 58 Comments
Earlier today, I noted that I had picked Clayton Kershaw to finish 1st in the NL Cy Young Award voting over at Baseball Prospectus. I’m now concerned that I didn’t pick him quite high enough, because Kershaw was absolutely sublime in tonight’s season opener, to the point where San Francisco starter Tim Lincecum allowed just one unearned run over seven innings himself, yet there was still no question about who was the most dominant starter on the mound tonight.
Kershaw scattered just four hits over seven scoreless innings, but even that doesn’t tell the true tale. One of those hits should have been an error on a botched toss from James Loney to Kershaw, and one was a bloop that fell just out of Loney’s reach. But while Kershaw was outstanding all around, it’s not just the few hits he allowed that impressed me most, and it’s not the nine strikeouts he put up. It’s not even how bad he made a handful of Giants look, particularly when he offered his curve. It’s the fact that he walked just one and made it through seven innings with fewer than 100 pitches. In years past, it might have taken him 120 pitches to get that far; in starts that aren’t his first of the season, you’d expect to see him continue into the 8th and 9th.
Need more proof of Kershaw’s progression? This was the 11th time in his career that he pitched at least seven innings without allowing more than one walk. Though he’s been in the bigs since mid-2008, seven of the previous ten came after June 27, 2010 – i.e., in the last half a season. We’ve long known that Kershaw had all the talent in the world, but there’s now a clear pattern of him harnessing the wildness and becoming one of the most dominant pitchers in the bigs. Mark my words, this is the year he gets the respect from the general public he deserves. Oh, and he turned 23 two weeks ago.
Kershaw’s game score of 77 is good for the 8th best in Los Angeles Dodger Opening Day history, though it’s sort of hard to compare to the 1960 club allowing Don Drysdale to throw 11 innings and 164 pitches in his first outing. It also tied for the 7th most effective start in his young career. No matter what else happens in 2011, watching Kershaw blossom is going to be a treat.
Coming in a close second to Kershaw on the list of heroes is Matt Kemp, who walked three times (getting on base four times overall), scored the first run, and stole 2nd in the 8th inning, putting himself in position to score on Loney’s double. Basically, the only thing he didn’t do was extend the five-game home run streak he’d carried over from the end of last season, and in terms of realizing the expectations we’ve placed on him, it was a great start.
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And then there was Jonathan Broxton, who jogged in to close out a two-run lead in the 9th with a world’s worth of weight on his back. (Seriously, if you could have only seen my Twitter feed at the time…) Getting the first out on a grounder to Loney was a good start, but when Burrell took him deep to left field, you thought for sure the wheels were going to fall off. He managed to get the second out on a tapper in front of the plate, and after a hard-fought battle with rookie Brandon Belt, making his big league debut, ended the game on a soft liner to third.
I’m sure the story tomorrow will be more about the homer than the save, and I won’t begin to pretend that my heart didn’t start to sink when I saw the Burrell ball go out. But there’s positives to be taken from this. The velocity was there, he was aggressive around the plate, he mixed in sliders rather than foolishly pounding in fastball after fastball, and most importantly, he got the job done.
Still, though I like the approach, until the results are consistently there, we’re going to keep hearing the questions.
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How about this game for a microcosm of the season we expect? We saw outstanding Dodger pitching, allowing just one run on five hits. We saw mediocre offense, with only one of the two runs being earned and only one extra base hit. And we saw several errors, both mental and physical. Rafael Furcal threw high on a groundball in the first inning, leading to an error, Loney threw high to Kershaw on Belt’s hit, and then we saw Juan Uribe sliding past second base and getting tagged out.
Of course, say what you will about the Dodgers, at least they’re not starting the corpse of Miguel Tejada at shortstop with Burrell and Aubrey Huff in the corner outfield spots. That’s without mentioning whatever the hell it was that caused Buster Posey to try to pick off Kemp at 3rd, leading to the first Dodger run.
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All in all? Couldn’t have asked for a better opener. Kershaw vs. Lincecum surpassed the hype, and we come away with a win. 1 down, 161 to go.
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Yeah…. I still stand by this tweet from earlier
“@MikeSciosciasTI: Clayton Kershaw is better at throwing curveballs than I will be at anything, ever.” you’re a really good blogger
Great first post Mike. I agree… there are a lot of positives to take from this. I always thought this was going to be the most difficult game of the four we play. Lincecum is really good and we hung in there
Comment by dpwtv— March 31, 2011 #
Brox was getting squeezed. I’ll chalk that homer up to being behind in a count he should have been ahead in. He was throwing 97+ with a nasty slider and was right around the plate the whole time. That’s a solid outing in my book. Though I certainly breathed a sigh of relief when the Dodgers got run #2; I had a feeling they’d need it.
Comment by hotblack desiato— March 31, 2011 #
Yeah, i was coming on to comment the same thing. I’d say there were at least three balls called over Broxton’s first two batters that were pretty much straight down the middle of the plate. you could tell he was getting frustrated. And a frustrated pitcher who feels like he can’t paint the corners is inevitably going to get hit. I was pretty damn nervous the entire 9th inning, but all in all, like everyone said, he looked good.
Comment by Ben— April 1, 2011 #
Great read!! I watched the game & was biting my nails the whole time! I was really impressed with Kemp & Kershaw was amazing. Great game. & I’m excited for the season, ownership issues and all :) Great post!
Comment by Joanna Blue— March 31, 2011 #
Felt like Kersh, Kuo and Brox got squeezed the whole game. Great news is they battled through it and got the W. Great Opening Day for the Dodgers. Kemp walking 3 times, Kershaw dominating, Kuo and Brox doing their jobs and Big game James looking to earn his name back. Great win!
Comment by Tripp— March 31, 2011 #
I felt like some of the Giants pitchers got squeezed, too. Just terrible officiating. And yet, still a lot better than some of the other games yesterday.
Comment by Dave— April 1, 2011 #
It looked to me like the calls that were blown were consistently on one edge of the plate – the outside corner for right-handed batters, the inside corner for left-handed batters. And yes, it looked like it on some of the pitches by the ‘ants, too.
Comment by nsxtasy— April 1, 2011 #
Team is going to interesting for sure. Kemp looked like a man today. Very, very excited.
Comment by Juan Pierre— March 31, 2011 #
I didn’t see the whole game, but I watched Broxton’s ninth. I agree with others that it seemed like Broxton’s strike zone was narrow. He had two specific fastballs that dusted the corner, and I was surprised to see them called balls. I felt like that forced him to throw down the freeway, and that’s why Burrell hit the liner out.
Not a perfect outing, but I’m pleased. I thought it was important that they came out on Opening Night against the World Champs and beat them. All I can say is that I hope my pregnant wife delivers a boy, because that kid’s name is Clayton.
Comment by B Smith— March 31, 2011 #
If you watched the game on ESPN, Orel was critical of the pitch selection when Broxton was in the game. The only way the Dodgers are going to be in the hunt this year is to manufacture the run that Uribe didn’t in the 8th inning. With Loney on second and no outs, it is important for Uribe to have a productive out. With so many poor hitters on this team there is no way we can win consistantly without doing the little things.
Comment by west coast ram— March 31, 2011 #
Orel has forgotten more about pitching than I’ll ever know, but I’ll always be suspicious over him calling a Dodger game. His bitterness can’t help but come out every so often.
Better him than Miller and Morgan, though. (Valentine needs to just go away.)
Comment by Bill Grabarkewitz— March 31, 2011 #
I thought that he was very complementary most of the night. He lives in Vegas now and I see him many times at HS baseball games in town and he always speaks highly of the Dodgers. I don’t know why you would think he has bitterness about his time with the Dodgers.
Comment by west coast ram— April 1, 2011 #
>> Better him than Miller and Morgan, though. (Valentine needs to just go away.)
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Actually, I was impressed with Valentine. I liked the way he drew on personal experience. And I thought he provided some unique perspectives at times. One example of the latter was his comment about how the small-market teams have a vested interest in the market value of the large-market teams, because it affects their own valuation.
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Miller never bothered me, but I sure won’t miss Morgan.
Comment by nsxtasy— April 1, 2011 #
>> If you watched the game on ESPN, Orel was critical of the pitch selection when Broxton was in the game.
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I didn’t think he was critical. I thought he was weighing the pluses and minuses of different pitches at different points in the at-bat based on the game situation. He wasn’t criticizing at all.
Comment by nsxtasy— April 1, 2011 #
Awesome game, and great to get the win. Mostly, great to have baseball back. Good job to kemp and kershaw. I’m not too worried about Broxton giving up a homer. So all around good start
Comment by Gillbert— March 31, 2011 #
What an awesome game! Kershaw is awesome, Broxton did his job, and we beat the Giants. Now if only Belisario was here. . .
Comment by Jeff M.— March 31, 2011 #
Broxton’s ERA is 9. He must be traded.
Comment by Brandon— March 31, 2011 #
“he mixed in sliders rather than foolishly pounding in fastball after fastball”
Actually, I don’t think he threw a slider until after the home run. Overall, he didn’t do bad. One mistake pitch, but he was throwing nothing but heat until after the home run.
Comment by Jim— March 31, 2011 #
That makes two outings in a row form Broxton that look really bad but that, all things considered, actually were good.
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And the only way I can describe what I was feeling after Kershaw had struck out eight through four innings was MSTI’s trademark “OMGWTFBBQ!” The Giants had maybe one or two well hit balls off him all day, and, not coincidentally, he was getting that slider over for strikes very consistently. I thought it was really funny to see the Giants taking pitches the first time through the lineup, thinking he was still that kid from 2009 who had trouble throwing strikes. How far did that get them? 1 hit, 6 Ks. And this is a Giants lineup that is, hate to say, solid through and through. The announcers spent a little too much time talking about how Panda was slimmer and fitter, how wonderful Brandon Belt is (granted, he did have a good game today) how mature and professional Buster Posey is, yada yada. Kershaw utterly spanks a solid lineup with the added pressure of facing the world champs on opening day with the whole country watching. I can’t wait for the next 161.
Comment by Bip— March 31, 2011 #
First of all its allways nice to see the boys start the season with a win.kerhaw looked great i really think he hasn’t peaked yet which is kind of scary!@west coast ram is right uribe has to at least try to get loney to 3b in a thight game like tonite.brox to me didnt look right i think he hasnt been right since he gave up a hr to stairs a few yrs ago.finally its only just 1gm so who knows their is still 161 to go.
Comment by Pete guerrero— March 31, 2011 #
People always associate the Stairs home run with the collapse of Broxton, but the date that I believe will truly live in infamy is July 27, 2010, when Joe Torre unforgivably left Broxton in to throw 48 pitches versus the Yankees in a non-save situation and blow the lead. To this day I believe that Torre left Broxton in there for no other reason than to try to prove a point to Colletti that he had no one else in the bullpen he trusted. Prior to that Broxton was basically bulletproof in the first half of 2010. Consider this: Charlie Manual chose Broxton as his closer in the All-Star game over Brian Wilson despite being the manager on the winning end of that Broxton/Stairs battle.
Comment by Justin— April 1, 2011 #
Exactly what I was about to say. I don’t even think he looked bad last night, despite giving up the homer. It really looked like he was getting squeezed by the ump and had to throw something that Burrell could hit. Unfortunately for him Burrell hit it well. Otherwise, Brox had his velocity and it looked like his slider had good motion.
Comment by Alex— April 1, 2011 #
I think the velocity was the key. I don’t remember too many games last year when he was sitting 97-99, even when he was dominant in the first half. I blame Torre overusing him last year. We’ll see what happens with Mattingly this year. At least he has a couple extra 9th inning arms, in Kuo and Jansen.
Comment by Dave— April 1, 2011 #
Excellent point(s). Kuo actually made me more nervous than Broxton last night. He couldn’t get anything over the plate until after a couple foul balls. Then he settled into his usual dominance and was able to throw pitches that were in the strike zone rather than getting help from an impatient hitter.
Comment by crushinator— April 1, 2011 #
Agreed on the Broxton/Yankees match-up of 2010 ruining his performance and confidence. He lost to Stairs two years in a row in an important spot while closing the playoff game but he still made it to the All-Star game in 2010 and pitched successfully in the 9th inning. You can also argue the fact that the 48 pitch Yankees game was before the All-Star break, but if memory serves me correctly he didn’t pitch a dominant 9th in the All-Star game even though he didn’t allow any runs. I just really hope he pitches like the Broxton of old because we need that power back in the bullpen.
Comment by joeyc138— April 13, 2011 #
say what you will about Loney, but it was his clutch hit in the 8th that sealed the win. complain about him all you want, but he comes through in the clutch sometimes. Kemp had a great game too, great plate discipline. and what more can you say about Kershaw, other than that he is very very very very good. Brox made one bad pitch, but otherwise looked fine. great win! lets go blue!
Comment by format— March 31, 2011 #
So getting a hit with no outs and a man on second and a one run lead is “clutch”? How about his two groundouts with runners in scoring position in a tie game and two outs. I’m ready for the Dodgers to let Loney walk or trade him before the deadline and get a real power 1st baseman.
Comment by west coast ram— April 1, 2011 #
That real power first baseman is waiting in the wings, in Jerry Sands. Just needs a little more seasoning… I see him getting called up during the summer.
Oh yeah, Corey Smith is at Albuquerque, too. His spring slash line of .583/.688/1.500 proves he’s the best first baseman in the game, way better than that bum in St. Louis who created 8 outs in 5 ABs yesterday. Small sample bias is fun.
Comment by Dave— April 1, 2011 #
there more than likly to put sands in left field than first base.
can you guys be a little more optimistic here? we see the dodgers win a great game. Kershaw dominates, Kemp has a great game, and Loney delivers a big hit, and you guys are complaining? stop drinking the haterade guys
Comment by format— April 1, 2011 #
Wow… you’re right. I’m in automatic critcize mode with Loney, because of past results, but it’s a new season, and we got a big win with his help. Not to mention, on that ball he tossed to Broxton in the 9th, not too many first basemen get to that.
I apologize for my negativity.
Comment by Dave— April 1, 2011 #
yes it is, when no one else came through
Comment by format— April 1, 2011 #
“complain about him all you want, but he comes through in the clutch sometimes”
Can’t you say this about everybody. “SOMETIMES”
Comment by Oz— April 1, 2011 #
Everybody comes through in the clutch ‘SOMETIMES’. Really, that is your defense for Loney? As said in the other reply to you, what of the two weak groundouts earlier in the game with runners on and in scoring position? No, Loney is what he is, and in terms of offensive run production, what he is just isn’t very good.
Comment by hunteralan— April 1, 2011 #
If Loney played a more challenging defensive position, his bat would play just fine. But you need a lot more at 1B.
Comment by Dave— April 1, 2011 #
One game does not constitute a career. The Loney from the first half of 2010 was actually pretty good, hitting a lot of doubles and driving in a lot of runs (he was among the league leaders in both categories at mid-season). He collapsed along with the batters around him in the second half.
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We’ll see how he does the rest of the season, and that will be used, along with his performance the last few years, to see whether or not he gets offered arbitration this winter.
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My personal hope is that he gets traded to the Cardinals mid-season for you-know-who with a big contract extension (yeah, I know, not likely), in which case Sands becomes a starting outfielder. But I think Sands will be starting at first on Opening Day 2012.
Comment by nsxtasy— April 1, 2011 #
geez you guys are such Loney haters, even though he had the game winning hit, and a terrific play in the 9th.
so what he grounded out twice earlier? when we needed a big hit it was him who got it. ethier didnt get it, furcal didnt, no one else did. maybe if that ball he hit had traveled like a foot farther and was a home run, maybe then you guys would give him some credit? keep hating guys and keep being negative. maybe you guys can try and be a little more possitive here? this team may suprise you.
Comment by format— April 1, 2011 #
I’m open to the idea that Loney could get better, but it’s not unfair to be down on him after the last 2 years. Yes, he did get a big hit last night and he’s to be commended for that. He also did leave a ton of men on in the ABs before that. Either way, one game is not enough to change anyone’s opinion. Let’s see what he does as the season goes on.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— April 1, 2011 #
Loney owns the only extra-base hit and the only RBI on our team this game, and people are complaining. The fact alone that he had more total bases than anyone on the team means that you’re applying quite a big double standard. Also, how can you expect a guy to deliver every time he comes up with RISP? Point me to the guys that hit .500 or more with RISP, against Lincecum, no less. Loney has given no one any reason to complain tonight.
Comment by Bip— April 1, 2011 #
Uribe should bat 5th, Loney choked 3 times before getting bailed out by an errant throw.
Comment by DodgersKings323— April 1, 2011 #
I don’t care what anyone says, I love James Loney. He is what he is and I’m cool with that until a better option comes along.
Its game 1. 161 games from now if you look at the boxscore from this game, all you’re going to remember is that Broxton picked up the save. Which means he did his job.
If you’re going to spend your time focusing on the HR then I just feel bad for you, because you probably have a hard time enjoying anything.
Comment by Mike G— April 1, 2011 #
“He is what he is and I’m cool with that until a better option comes along.”
That’s the point, there are a lot of better options.
Comment by Oz— April 1, 2011 #
There really weren’t any good 1st base options this off season, unless you think the Padres would be crazy enough to trade Gonzalez within the division. But then again, I saw the lineup the Padres trotted out on opening day. They just might be that crazy. Next year, there’s a few great but very high priced options. But next year, Sands should be ready.
Comment by Dave— April 1, 2011 #
I agree. We might just put Sands there next year and trade Loney.
But, in my opinion Loney isn’t really a problem. Though it would be nice to have a Gonzalez on the team, power upgrades at third and in left field would dramatically improve this team and Loney can do what he really is built for – hit .300 with 15 homers and 90 ribbies.
Comment by Rory— April 1, 2011 #
Not really, at least within the organization, until Sands is ready (if he even ends up at 1B). And they were never going to trade for one of the big names, so I’m gonna need some examples of those better options.
I’d love an upgrade, we all would, but he really is the only option right now, and I’m O.K. with 90 rbi until I see a viable replacement.
Comment by Mike G— April 1, 2011 #
I’ve been a little remiss in posting as I’ve had 4 fantasy baseball drafts in the last 7 days and one more tonight, a $360-NL. I tried to get Kershaw in my $260-NL, but he went for $40 and may well be worth it given his performance against the World Champs last night. Broxton tried to lose it, giving up the solo HR to Burrell but got the job done, unlike John Axford earlier in the day. Just in case of any adversity, I kept Hong-Chih Kuo in that $360 league for 10 bucks. It may turn out to be fortuitous or a waste of money, I’ll bet on the former. That being said, the Dodgers will have to win a lot of games like last nights with good starting pitching and are on pace for a 162-0 mark on the season. I think that would be a record!
Comment by george hubschman— April 1, 2011 #
Sloppy game, good result.
It went very much like I thought it would. Neither Kershaw nor Lincecum gave up an earned run and ultimately it was lost by the bullpen – theirs not ours. Yeah, I know, Lincecum got the loss. Casilla deserved it.
I know LaRussa doesn’t care much for Cederstrom, but he ranks ok. I agree that he squeezed the corners in the 9th inning. Maybe even he had an Opening Day pucker factor.
Dodgers 6 for 30 but got a win. Good start hey? We may see a lot more games like this one.
Comment by Rory— April 1, 2011 #
Posey deserved the loss.
Comment by Dave— April 1, 2011 #
Good point.
Comment by Rory— April 1, 2011 #
It’s still pretty unclear who’s “regressing faster”, what with Kershaw dominating and Billingsly signing that big extension.
Comment by Mike G— April 1, 2011 #
Imagine how many problems it would solve if Loney could play third. That frees up first base for Jerry Sands, Uribe can move back to second, Loney would be a decent hitting third baseman, it solves the problem of having no good 3B prospects in the system, and if we really wanted to, we could platoon him with Casey Blake. I know, I know, you can’t just move players around to any position you want, and it’s not called the hot corner for nothing, but you’d think that after considering all the things I’ve said here, someone would bring up to him that he might try to learn third (If I was his agent, I would certainly make the point that he’ll be more valuable as a free agent if he can play third.) I would think his plus defense at first would translate well. Does anyone think this is plausible? I’m not asking if it’s going to happen (it won’t) but if it’s possible for a guy like Loney to learn a totally new position.
Comment by Bip— April 1, 2011 #
Considering that Loney is left-handed… I don’t see that happening any time soon.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— April 1, 2011 #
Well, wasn’t Don the last lefty to play a little 3B? Would be an interesting experiment
Comment by Alireza— April 1, 2011 #
As I said in my post, I don’t either. I was commenting on A) how nicely it would work if it was possible and B) asking if it was possible. I considered that Loney was left handed, but I didn’t know if that would prevent him from fielding third base, which is why I asked. So left-handed batters that play third like Eric Chavez usually throw with their right?
Comment by Bip— April 1, 2011 #
Didn’t Loney start off as a pitcher? Why don’t they just take him to the pen and see how he can throw instead of giving him wasted at bats? His defense at 1st is decent but nothing that can’t be replaced and his bat is almost 100% dead this year. I don’t even know if I agree with myself about trying Loney as a pitcher again but anything is better then watching him take strike 3 every game.
Comment by joeyc138— April 13, 2011 #
I feel like even if Loney learned how to throw across the diamond with his right hand, his offense still wouldn’t really support a move to 3b.
Comment by crushinator— April 1, 2011 #
This entire thread is quickly devolving into Dodger Talk.
Comment by Justin— April 1, 2011 #
[...] and after a relatively quiet spring Kershaw proved Mattingly right by dominating Tim Lincecum on March 31: Earlier today, I noted that I had picked Clayton Kershaw to finish 1st in the NL Cy Young Award [...]
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[...] March 31: Earlier today, I noted that I had picked Clayton Kershaw to finish 1st in the NL Cy Young Award [...]
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