On James Loney’s Value and Future
April 20, 2011 at 6:51 am | Posted in James Loney | 66 Comments
I realize that the topic du jour around Dodgertown today is going to be the continued failure of the back end of the bullpen (and imagine my surprise when I checked the final score this morning after falling asleep last night in the 8th inning, down 2-1), but there will be plenty of time another day to look at what appears to be an ongoing problem. (Feel free to discuss it in the comments though.)
Today, however, the spotlight falls upon James Loney, who now has the second-lowest OPS+ of any big leaguer who has at least 65 plate appearances in 2011. If I’d bumped the floor up to 70, Carl Crawford would no longer qualify and Loney would stand by himself at the top. Or bottom. Whichever.
Anyway, today is Loney day in no small part because running today at Baseball Prospectus is my first feature article outside the usual weekly fantasy look at relievers. I won’t repost the entire thing here; the introduction focuses on how the failures of Loney, Juan Uribe, Rod Barajas, and Aaron Miles are dragging down the great work of Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and the starting rotation, which is nothing new to most of you, and then mentions how the promotion of Jerry Sands and progress of Trayvon Robinson makes it almost certain that Loney is not long for Los Angeles.
Here’s the money shot, however:
Now, it does seem clear that Loney’s tenure with the Dodgers is drawing to an end one way or another. But what is less clear to me is that he has no future, despite his recent past. That is because he has one massive home/road split, largely unseen aside from players who call Colorado, Texas, or San Diego home.
Loney
PA
Line
HR
Road OPS improvement
Home
1244
.265/.329/.371
18
–
Road
1259
.303/.357/.488
38
+144
In a nearly identical amount of plate appearances over six seasons, Loney has proven to be two completely different players based on whether he is wearing the home whites or the road grays. It’s not the result of one big year either, because we’ve seen this kind of split in every year of his career, to varying degrees. In Dodger Stadium, Loney is essentially David Eckstein or Brendan Harris, players with career 701 OPS marks that mirror Loney’s home performance—that kind of offense is barely acceptable from a middle infielder, and even less so from a first baseman.
Yet, on the road, Loney’s 845 mark puts him in far better company, including Brian McCann, Luis Gonzalez, Jayson Werth, and Hideki Matsui. The use of raw OPS data is imperfect, I will admit, but the point remains: James Loney will not be successful as long as he his forced to play half of his games at Dodger Stadium.
That means the opportunity is there for an enterprising team to buy low (extremely low) on Loney in the hopes that rescuing him from Los Angeles would help bring out the “good” Loney more often. They would do well to keep him away from lefty pitching as well, where he has another large platoon split of 105 points of OPS. This combination makes letting him hit in Dodger Stadium against a southpaw seem like basically a no-win proposition, and indeed he is hitting just .208/.274/.284 lifetime in such situations–a far cry from his “road against righties” mark of .302/.357/.496.
All of this suggests that there may yet be a useful player in there, if he were to land in the right situation and be used carefully. Which teams, then, might be in the market for such a player, either through trade this year or in the offseason assuming the Dodgers let him walk? There are a few places which stand out, starting in the American League with Baltimore, which has an old and aching Derrek Lee on a one-year deal with no obvious replacement (unless you’re still on board the Brandon Snyder train). The argument could also be made for Cleveland, with Matt LaPorta not yet proven and still able to switch to left field if needed, and Tampa, where the umpteenth Dan Johnson experiment has not started well.
In the National League, Adam LaRoche is signed through 2012 in Washington, but never seems to stay anywhere longer than a year at a time and should never be seen as a roadblock for anyone–the same could be said for Lyle Overbay in Pittsburgh. Staying in the Central, Chicago, St. Louis, and Milwaukee could all see their incumbent first basemen move on after the season, and there’s the less-likely but non-zero possibility that Houston could sour on Brett Wallace and choose to bring Loney back to his hometown.
Regardless of where he may land, Loney is an interesting case study simply because no one seems to get his value correctly. The “traditional” community, taken in by a sweet swing and solid RBI totals, continues to overvalue him and considers him to be a vital part of the young Dodger core, along with Kemp, Ethier, Chad Billingsley, and Clayton Kershaw. Conversely, the advanced stats community tends to despise him, generally considering that his lack of production from a power position and defensive metrics that don’t quite match his reputation to equal a very subpar package. (If only to illustrate that last point, I took part in an NL-only draft with several members of this site and other well-known sites just before the season; Loney lasted until the 344th pick. At any given time, there are only 400 players on the sixteen twenty-five man rosters in the league.)
The truth is likely somewhere in between, and though I will shed no tears as a Dodger fan when he finally leaves, let’s not be surprised at all if he immediately turns it around in a new home next year.
That’s right; after all the moaning I’ve done about Loney, particularly on Twitter during games, I still see hope for him – just not as a Dodger. I can just imagine what’ll happen if and when he goes to another team and does well; the shitstorm among Dodger fans will be immense, despite 98% of them having no clue about his home/road splits. (For the record, I’ve been talking about Loney’s home/road split issues for a while; I believe I mentioned them back in late 2009 for the 2010 Maple Street Press Dodger Annual.)
But I’m not the only one talking about Loney today, because Eric Seidman of Brotherly Glove has taken the topic on at Fangraphs as well. Though we agree that Loney isn’t helping the Dodgers at all, his outlook is a bit more dour than mine:
I’m not advocating an outright release of Loney, but the Dodgers should make a serious push to trade him.
If it took them three years to realize he isn’t the player they saw in 2006-07, it stands to reason that a few other teams might be equally slow in coming to this realization.
If nobody bites, they should look to split playing time between several players to extract the most value out of the position, instead of slavishly sticking to a below average player. If they fail to trade him then the team should certainly non-tender him after the season. Either way, this should be Loney’s final season on the Dodgers, and a big key to their potential playoff contention will involve drastically reducing his playing time.
Loney has perked up a bit with three hits in his last two games, though one was merely a well-placed grounder to the vacated shortstop hole on a hit-and-run. Either way, I tend to think it’s too little, too late. But the point about value stands – plenty of people, and presumably a few teams, greatly overvalue Loney because of his former top prospect status and pretty RBI totals. If the Dodgers can take advantage of that to move him for just about anything useful, I think they need to do it. And if that means Loney goes elsewhere, succeeds, and makes the Dodgers look foolish to some, then all the better for him – because it’s just not working out here.
66 Comments »
RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI
Leave a Reply
How Many McCourt Sins?
MSTI on the web
MSTI Library
Blog at WordPress.com. | Theme: Pool by Borja Fernandez.
Entries and comments feeds.
Let’s not keep getting rid of our good Dodger players. I say get rid of management and
keep our Dodger players like James Loney. Do you know a better defensive player at 1st base?
We need to develop pitching in our farm system as in days of old.
Thursday should bring back memories with the Dodgers in Brooklyn Dodger uniforms.
Comment by Bruce— April 20, 2011 #
Bruce, what exactly makes you consider Loney a “good” player? He’s one of the worst hitters in baseball right now.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— April 20, 2011 #
Not to pile on, but do you really lump Loney in with Dodgers “good” players?
Comment by Eephus Blue— April 20, 2011 #
Loney is hitting around .200 since last yrs break. For the money he makes and will make, its time to say goodbye.
Comment by TC— April 20, 2011 #
Maybe we can trade Loney for Octavio Dotel. :)
Comment by nsxtasy— April 20, 2011 #
Nice work
Comment by Jaydavis— April 20, 2011 #
Loney’s home road splits are well known by now. some people are just in denial that he is done as a ML hitter. yes good fielder but terrible hitter. whats even more aggravating is the entire Dodger inefield has hit 1 home run 1! oddly enough the 1 homer is from Loney. they need to bench him and only use him as a late inning defensive replacement. what aggravates even more, Donnie continuoulsy game after game, forfieting by bringing in one those three bum relievers. its the same as last year. no offense and a lousy bullpen.
Comment by format— April 20, 2011 #
Loney like Martin needs a change of scene, i think Pittsburgh is on the phone Ned…
Comment by Go_Blue_2011— April 20, 2011 #
Martin?
Comment by nsxtasy— April 20, 2011 #
Yeah, ol’ Russ is making good on his move to the Yankees, to the tune of .292/.346/.604. Remains to be seen if he can keep it up over the full season, not to mention future seasons, but so far so good. He looks like 2 time All-Star Russell Martin, hitting home runs and stealing a few bases, not 2009-2010 Russell Martin, flailing away and falling to a knee in the batter’s box.
Comment by Dave— April 20, 2011 #
he is at yankee stadium where it is much easier to get jacks out of there but again he has played more innings than any other catcher this year, remains to be seen.
Comment by Go_Blue_2011— April 20, 2011 #
I want to comment more. But I gotta chew on this a bit
Comment by Eephus Blue— April 20, 2011 #
Thinking on it a bit more, I gotta say I agree with you Mike. This is something I have been dreading for a while now given his whackadoo splits between home and road games. I know that as soon as he is in another setting he may become what we always hoped he would. Its a real bummer as I have always been high on Loney since he came up. Is it just Los Angeles that doesn’t agree with him or is it Dodger stadium? I know he kills in Coors but so do a lot of players. How does Loney fair in pitcher’s parks such as Petco or even AT&T? (I dont have the numbers but from what I can recall, he hasn’t exactly crushed). That said, I don’t know what we could get in return for him that is of any value. Im afraid we are stuck with him. I just hope Donnie considers what Seidman discussed, and minimizes the impact of Loney’s sucktitude by platooning him. Yeesh. That’s alotta platoon going on. (LF 1B, and probably 3rd if Chavez signed)
Comment by Eephus Blue— April 20, 2011 #
He hits .237/.305/.390 at Petco, similar to Dodger stadium, .235/.319/.420 at the phone booth in SF. His BA and OBP at Dodger Stadium are right in the middle range of what he does at other parks, he just loses all of his power at Dodger Stadium.
Comment by Dave— April 20, 2011 #
James just don’t like LA.
Comment by Eephus Blue— April 20, 2011 #
Oh my, there just isn’t much to say after the latest colapse. That’s 42 runs allowed in 6 home games! The pitching and managing are horrible as well as most of the everyday players on this team. This season is going to be one of the worst in Doyer history and then they’ll lose Either to Fa, why would he want to stay? THis team needs an complete overhaul starting from the owner on down!
Comment by Bruised and Blue— April 20, 2011 #
Ethier’s not a free agent after this season. He’s under control through 2012.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— April 20, 2011 #
Mike, incredible work deciphering that mess; I had no idea what the hell that read.
Comment by Scott— April 20, 2011 #
Can you really say management was so awful? I cant really think of an instance where I thought “we totally would have won that game had Donnie done something different”. Its been the players not producing. and to be clear I am specifically referring to in game decisions, not line ups.
Comment by Eephus Blue— April 20, 2011 #
I agree. Overall, I’ve been very happy with Mattingly, all things considered. He’s in a tough spot as far as the talent on hand goes.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— April 20, 2011 #
Loney to Tampa for Sean Rodriguez.
Comment by Travis— April 20, 2011 #
Not a bad idea, but it’d never happen because James is expensive and the Rays are poor.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— April 20, 2011 #
Did I miss something here, or are we talking about the same Sean Rodriguez who struck out 28% of the time in half a season’s worth of at-bats and only walked 5.6% of the time, hitting a paltry .251/.308/.397? So we’d have another middle infielder with a plus glove at 2B/SS who doesn’t walk and has decent power?
Comment by Jorge— April 20, 2011 #
Mike, have you looked into possible trade options? It would be nice to have Loney turned into a position player that we may be short of. A leauge average second basemen would be great, or a Juan Uribe type without the inflated salary. Wait I got it… Loney for Santana! C’mon Cleveland were
pals right?
Comment by Aaron— April 20, 2011 #
I’d prefer a bullpen arm. We’re not going to get much for Loney, but a decent middle reliever seems reasonable, and we certainly have the need.
Comment by Dave— April 20, 2011 #
Loney’s BABIP is still quite low on the season. Once that perks up his stats will go up and that will be a better time to trade him.
As for Trayvon Robinson, do you think he could learn to play an infield position? Because his numbers don’t look great for the outfield, especially an already crowded one here in LA. As a middle infielder, those numbers look pretty good if he had the glove to go with it. I see he’s played some 2B and 3B, so it is a possibility?
Comment by Tony Fernandez— April 20, 2011 #
His BABIP is low, but in this case I don’t think it’s bad luck. It’s just him hitting weak grounders all the time.
I don’t believe Robinson has ever played the IF. His numbers would be fine for a CF, which is where he’d likely be.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— April 20, 2011 #
I fell asleep at the same time, was awoken by a text alert almost an hour later saying 10-1 and I just thought “I don’t even want to know” and went back to sleep.
Comment by Mike G— April 20, 2011 #
Wow I suppose Vinny’s voice was hypnotic in the 8th inning, because I fell asleep at the exact same time. Woke up when it was 8-1, watched it become 10-1 in a dazed stupor, and said to myself “I wonder if Troncoso gave up all 8 of those?”
Comment by Danny— April 20, 2011 #
It’s those home/road splits that have kept Loney around for so long, despite having amongst the very worst offensive numbers for a first baseman… We all see that he CAN hit, just not here. So management assumes he’ll figure it out, or is just unlucky at home, or whatever other justifications they might come up with.
Comment by Dave— April 20, 2011 #
Not sure what’s happened to Loney, but he can’t seem to find his swing. The last half of last year and this don’t even look like the slightly disappointing Loney from 08-09. Where is first half Loney from last year? I think we’d be satisfied with that.
Part of the problem in my opinion is that we’ve tried to make him a power hitter and thus made him try to change the hitter he was into something else and now he can’t seem to hit at all.
Loney was on track to be a great hitter with just gap power but still a solid hitter but everyone wanted him to hit home runs so maybe all that focus has caused him to lose the value he has which is to hit like he did the first part of last year or 2007.?? Just a thought.
Maybe though it’s just the stadiums….
Comment by Jon#7#22— April 20, 2011 #
I don’t think Loney has been reading these posts. If he has I don’t think he’d change his swing based on our statistical analysis. Loney isn’t very good, in fact you could say he sucks. The Dodgers need to replace him. Sands and Blake should get some starts at first. I’d also like to add that although Loney is the worst first baseman in baseball, this team has a ton of holes and replacing him is just the beginning.
Comment by Max— April 20, 2011 #
When I say we, I’m not talking about blogs or online stuff…I know James isn’t trolling this site or any good dodger blog
“we” would refer to the Dodgers in general as managers, general managers, etc of course have been talking about lack of power for awhile, media would be second…
One of my favorite players so I hope he turns it around while in Dodger blue, if not I agree with Mike he probably will but with new scenery.
Comment by Jon#7#22— April 20, 2011 #
I got a hundred push-ups that says Loney has better numbers than Blake by the end of the year.
Comment by Rory— April 20, 2011 #
Are these the fruity frozen treat? or u doing said push ups?
Comment by Eephus Blue— April 20, 2011 #
there is a certain first basemen in St. Louis that is going to be an FA at the end of this season. i know, i know there’s no chance in hell but just let me dream. in this dream scenario the mccourts sell the team to a Steinbrenner type who is willing to spend the kind of money necessary to win. and as a side note, why isn’t this possible. Los Angeles is a huge sports market. where is our Steinbrenner?
Comment by nicolas t— April 20, 2011 #
It’s weird to me that as Dodger fans it seems inconceivable that we could sign Pujols. Didn’t we draw the highest attendance in 2009 and the third highest in 2010 despite a terribly disappointing season? We’re the definition of a big market team. No signing should be impossible. But this one is. He’ll probably go to Boston and platoon with Adrian Gonzalez.
Comment by Bip— April 20, 2011 #
Folks, no need to trade for middle IF. Dee Gordon and De Jesus will be playing SS/2B when the team is 15 games out in June. But what about 3B? Is there anyone in the minors in line? Brandon Wood just got DFA’d, lol. Maybe a change of scenery for him too? Hopefully Uribe and Lilly will get traded midseason to some playoff bound suckers.
Comment by Scott— April 20, 2011 #
Dejesus needs to put in a ton of work to earn the spot.
Comment by Max— April 20, 2011 #
You’re right, but if the Dodgers continue to score 1 run a game, they will be out the playoff picture early and it would make sense to get the rookies playing time at the big league level. Or if you’re myopic like Ned Colletti, you can trade them for Dotel…
Comment by Scott— April 20, 2011 #
Id look into giving brandon wood a shot. Can’t fare much worse than aaron miles and IDJ. But as for Loney the only way I see him having trade value is to a team who values defense (washington, tampa bay). If troy glaus decides to play I wouldn’t even mind him over loney at this point.
Comment by alex— April 20, 2011 #
One thing I’ve realized about loney is his stride is inconsistent. This will make it difficult on any major league hitter. At times he floats his front leg too long and gets it down way too late. Other times he will take little to no stride. Most balls he hits with authority are hanging off speed pitches and fastballs he flails to the left side.
Comment by alex— April 20, 2011 #
Yeah, it often looks to me like Loney doesn’t get his his hips/back leg properly involved in generating power. It’s almost like he has planted already and is relying only on his upper body (which results in being able to, at best, slap the ball or hit weak fly balls).
Watching the first 7 inning of last night’s game, I was somewhat amazed that the Dodger hitters were not able to get to Breachy. At times he was locating well, but he also threw a significant number of STRAIGHT (we’re talking no lateral movement) 92 mph fastballs right down the middle, and the Dodgers could not hit them. My eyes were telling me that we have a bunch of position players who look overmatched by average MLB stuff.
We can still make some noise if our pitching gets really hot and the slumping players play at just a mediocre level (instead of epically bad/Andruw Jones type performances), but I am girding myself for a long season and will try to enjoy the individual things (like Sands and what I hope is a full season of the Bison (my nickname too!!) doing his thing).
Comment by bisonjones— April 20, 2011 #
How about reconverting Loney back into a pitcher? Has to be better than Troncoso or Kenley out there on the mound.
Comment by Go_Blue_2011— April 20, 2011 #
A guy that hasn’t pitched in well over 6 years is going to be better than Troncoso or Jansen? Really?
Comment by Eephus Blue— April 20, 2011 #
He’ll be well rested, that’s for sure. :P
Comment by Jorge— April 20, 2011 #
Jansen maybe. What’s better, a guy who hasn’t pitched in six years or one who has only pitched for two?
Comment by Bip— April 20, 2011 #
I think Loney for Sean Rodriguez is an interesting thought. He is used all around the field in Tampa and could be good as a 3B (which he is playing now, with Longoria on the DL). Sean seems to have power and good fileding. I think Sean would thrive with a change of scenery and some consistent playing time. His production has seemed to pick up with the playing time he has received since Longoria went to the DL.
Comment by Juan— April 20, 2011 #
I think the worst thing about the loss last night was that I thought “neither Kemp nor Ethier is coming up in the ninth, so it doesn’t matter that we’re now down by nine, we wouldn’t have scored anyway.” I don’t exactly expect something good out of Sands every time he comes to the plate, but I am excited to see what he can do each at bat.
Comment by Bip— April 20, 2011 #
It looks like loney is hurt his knee is not 100%!wow does uribe suck, how great would the riot look in l.a for 1yr instead of uribe?and finally its a great thing that they have jansen if brox keeps getting roughed up…………
Comment by Pete guerrero— April 20, 2011 #
The only thing Theriot would look great doing in LA for a year would be serving a prison term.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— April 20, 2011 #
Convicted of: First Degree Aggravated TOOTBLAN! Repeat offenses!
Comment by thestratcat— April 20, 2011 #
Agree on the knee. Maybe there’s a more serious issue.
Disagree on Theriot. Uribe has been bad but I think he’ll come around to his average hitting with some pop.
Comment by Jon#7#22— April 20, 2011 #
My other theory on Loney is that he got slightly injured right after the break last year and it caused him to change his swing, then he never got it back.
If you remember after the break he had a game in STL where he was 3 for 5 with a double/1 rbi. Next game he got hurt in the 8th on some kind of bad leg cramp, he was on the ground pretty badly hurt it looked like. He missed one game and came back and has never been the same since. At that point he was hitting: .309/.360/.441.
Since then it’s been terrible, maybe??
Wish Chad Moriyama would do an analysis from Loney maybe last year early and 2007 and compare it to 2nd half and this year to see if there is a simply explanation??? Who knows.
Comment by Jon#7#22— April 20, 2011 #
Forgot about the knee in ST as well. Maybe that’s it.
Comment by Jon#7#22— April 20, 2011 #
The only thing wrong with Loney is he is thinking too much!
It’s like Yogi said “you gotta go up there with an empty head”
Comment by Michael— April 20, 2011 #
Nice job MSTI. Spot on with stat analysis on the h/r splits for Loney. I had noticed that too, but you got into the deep numbers and explained it well.
BTW, anyone else notice that the starters 1 through 5 all have posted at least one terrific outing in this young season–4 in a row with Garland tonight…and Kershaw and Bills are looking real good? IMO that’s a good sign. Bats will wake up ( even Loney’s, I think) but the bullpen… Yikes so far. Trying to be Lasorda optimistic here, and see a trend in the good starting pitching…
Comment by thestratcat— April 20, 2011 #
[...] Scioscia’s Tragic Illness – Mike explains James Loney’s value both now and in the [...]
Pingback by Weekend Round-Up – 4/24/2011 | Fire Brand of the American League— April 24, 2011 #
[...] On James Loney's Value and Future « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness [...]
Pingback by [WATCH]: Kings of Xtreme— June 19, 2011 #
I don’t think james loney should be traded he should retire a dodger…look at the stats he contributed more than kemp and ethier at the begining of ther careers james last 3 seasons had over 85 rbi’s he had a good hitting not great but then again a lot of dodgers havnt had great hitting untill kemp this year…loney is a great firstbaseman on defense and a good firstbaseman on offense he still has a good swing and he’s showing that right now he’s not that far from ethiers numbers should he be traded to? I didn’t think so…the dodgers need to get rid of uribe he clearly sucks…I’m a furcal fan but he’s always injured he’s getting paid to much for watching games. Gordan needs to stay at ss carrol needs to play a lot more keep him at 2b blake and miles can share 3b for now then they can both leave the team…a good 3baseman and a really good hitting catcher would be good the pitchings fine let the young releivers play we got some good young pitchers
Comment by john— June 21, 2011 #
Re: Loney. No, no, no, and no.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 21, 2011 #
then let them get someone thats going to make a ton of errors then you idiot
Comment by chad— June 21, 2011 #
loney another game another hit…good job dodgers
think blue
Comment by jim— June 21, 2011 #
another 3 hits for loney
Comment by jim— June 22, 2011 #
[...] half helped to set off a barrage of criticism, both in these pages and elsewhere. On April 20, I argued at Baseball Prospectus that he would need to move on from Los Angeles in order to revive his career. [...]
Pingback by The New & Improved James Loney « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 23, 2011 #
[...] of the internet,” and by April 20 he was getting entire posts dedicated to how awful he was, not only here, but at Baseball Prospectus, where I pointed out that his home/road and lefty/right splits were so [...]
Pingback by MSTI’s 2011 in Review: First Base « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— October 5, 2011 #