Monthly Archives: April 2011

So What Does Aaron Miles Have on Don Mattingly?

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A quick thought for you on this holiday morning, and while it’s not one that’s particularly new – we’ve been complaining about this both here on the blog and on Twitter for some time now – it is one that gets more relevant as the days go on.

What, exactly, is Don Mattingly’s fascination with Aaron Miles, who is atop the lineup yet again for today’s game in Chicago? That’s the third time in the last seven games that Miles is leading off, and it will be his tenth start of the year. Miles, as just about everyone on the planet could have predicted, has been awful, hitting .214/.233/.278 for a 31 OPS+.

The issue here is that there’s two issues here, because ignoring the batting order for a moment, there is no godly reason to have Miles in the lineup at all. Yes, I understand that Rafael Furcal is on the disabled list and that Juan Uribe has missed a few days with a tight left thigh, thus requiring more time from the backups than we’d like. But why Miles, who is atrocious with no prayer of improvement, over Ivan DeJesus, who I’m not even a huge fan of but who satisfies the simple requirement of “not being Aaron Miles”? As Jon Weisman writes at Dodger Thoughts today, DeJesus has received just five plate appearances without a start since getting called up on April 12, while Miles has seen six starts in that time. Is DeJesus any sort of guarantee to perform? Of course not. But it wasn’t that long ago that he was a highly thought of prospect, and there’s at least potential for a spark there. You can’t say that about Miles.

Even beyond the impact it has on the field, the decision to continually play Miles over DeJesus goes directly against what Mattingly said on April 6, when DeJesus was initially sent down to make room for Casey Blake:

“He had a great spring. But the way we’re set up, his at-bats are not enough to dwarf his development,” manager Don Mattingly said of the decision to send De Jesus down. “I’m sure he’s disappointed — and I know he wants to be in the big leagues — but his best interest is for him to still be playing every day.”

“We know he’s going to handle the bat,” manager Don Mattingly said of De Jesus after announcing he’d been optioned. “Defensively, he just needs to keep working and keep putting polish on his game at second base. I look at Ivan as a kid that can play every day, and the way we’re set up, he’s not going to get the at-bats that’s really fair to him or to his development, or what we’re trying to do. To sit here and get two at-bats a week is not going to do him any good, and it’s not going to do us any good. He’s young, he can play. To me he’s an everyday guy.”

Yet that’s exactly what they’re doing, by sitting him in favor of an option that’s in no way obviously better. This is exactly the issue that worried me just after DeJesus was called up to fill Furcal’s spot:

I know I haven’t exactly been the biggest supporter of Ivan DeJesus, but can we please get him more time at second base instead of Aaron Miles? Maybe DeJesus is a big league player, and maybe he’s not, but at least there’s hope there. Miles (0-2 tonight, hitting .214) is just execrable, and that’s not likely to change. DeJesus at least got his first big league hit tonight, and there’s no reason to not be playing him.

Unfortunately, that’s exactly what we’re seeing. Yet compounding the playing time issue is that Mattingly insists on batting him leadoff, an insult aggravated more by the fact that the superior Jamey Carroll and his .372 OBP (working towards his fourth straight year of .355 or better) continues to hit 8th. Because when you want guys on base for Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp to drive in, why wouldn’t you put your worst hitter (okay, James Loney is still challenging for that crown) ahead of them?

Back when the Dodgers signed Miles in February, I noted that among players who have received as many plate appearances as he’s had since 2003, only three players in baseball have generated less value for their teams. In another two weeks or so he’ll have enough PA to knock Juan Encarnacion off the list and become the third least valuable player in that time. Ladies and gentlemen, your leadoff hitter.

We knew signing Miles was a terrible idea when it happened, and what we’ve seen of him so far hasn’t done anything to change that impression. So please, Don, spare us from having to see him play so much – and if you absolutely can’t resist that temptation, then at least hit him as low in the lineup as you can.

******

It’s still incredibly unlikely that this happens and even if it did, it would take months, years or more. Still, I wrote about a scenario in which Brewers owner and LA native Mark Attanasio could end up with control of the Dodgers the other day, and today I see this tidbit in Buster Olney’s piece:

Heard this: In the highest offices of a handful of other teams, the heavy speculation is that Brewers owner Mark Attanasio would be the most likely candidate to move from one team to the Dodgers — if Major League Baseball fends off the expected legal challenges of Frank McCourt, and if MLB decides to have an established owner take over the Dodgers — and if Attanasio actually were to take the opportunity, if presented. But it will take months for all of this to play out.

Don’t hold your breath, or get your hopes up. Just be happy that there’s people in the know who think that there’s even a sliver of a chance there.

Dodgers Start Off Road Trip on the Right Foot

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Apparently all it took was the coldest day of the year for the Dodger offense to get hot, because they finally busted out for twelve runs – six in the third inning – on a raw, blustery day at Wrigley. Well, cold weather and a completely ineffective Casey Coleman, making his 11th career start, that is. Coleman walked four, allowed six hits, and was gone before the third inning was over.

The Dodgers were more than happy to take advantage of the generosity of Coleman and the other Cub pitchers, as every starter got a hit except for Jerry Sands, who still managed to chip in by walking with the bases loaded. That includes Chad Billingsley, who walked and had an RBI single when he wasn’t throwing 6.1 innings, allowing just one earned run. Juan Uribe is finally starting to contribute with two hits, including a homer; after starting the season oh-for-his-first-twelve-thousand, he’s on a six game hitting streak, with multiple hits in half of those. He’s always been a streaky hitter, and this year appears to be no different. Marcus Thames chipped in his second homer in 23 at-bats to add the icing on the cake in the 9th inning.

Also of note: Kenley Jansen, off to a very rough start, struck out four of the five men he faced. His ability to get back on track can’t be understated as the back of the Dodger bullpen tries to get back on track. And A.J. Ellis had a walk and two hits, pushing his OBP up to .389 (in just seven games, I know) and making me continue to wonder why he’s almost certain to lose his job when Dioner Navarro is healthy next week.

******

In years past, we’ve referred to the wonderfully bearded Casey Blake as the Most Interesting Man in the World. The Wall Street Journal begs to differ:

We began by taking every hitter who had made at least 1,000 major-league plate appearances since 2007—a pool of 252. Players were then eliminated for doing virtually anything that would’ve ever made them stand out, including hitting .300 in a season (sorry, Lyle Overbay), being a former pitcher (there goes Rick Ankiel) or hitting for a cycle (nice try, Fred Lewis). Catchers and middle infielders were also disqualified since those defensive-oriented positions tend to yield weaker hitters. But we weren’t looking for subpar hitters, so we set a minimum requirement of a .700 career on-base plus slugging percentage.

Blake ended up “beating” out the other finalists, Ben Francisco, Kevin Kouzmanoff, and Chase Headley, for the title of “baseball’s most anonymous player”. If he’s playing in LA and he’s the most anonymous, what if he was still in Cleveland? I guess then he’d be so unknown he wouldn’t even be thought of, to be not thought of.

******

You’d think, with this ongoing McCourt mess, that it couldn’t possibly get worse, right? Well, you’d be wrong. One of the most confounding questions about the recent developments was why FOX would be so willing to keep floating McCourt loans, when McCourt had no obvious way to repay the debt.

Here’s why:

The $30-million personal loan that Fox gave Dodgers owner Frank McCourt last week was not only to help him meet payroll and pay for increased security after the shocking beating of a San Francisco Giants fan, but also to stay in McCourt’s favor after learning he had approached rival Time Warner Cable for a similar loan.

McCourt told Fox representatives that Time Warner was ready and willing to assist him with his financial problems, according to two people with knowledge of the situation but not authorized to speak publicly. Time Warner also was ready to offer a full sponsorship package that included naming rights for Dodger Stadium.

Time Warner Stadium? Oh, that’s lovely. Perhaps Time Warner Field at DodgerWorld, Inc.? Why stop there? McCourt Park, brought to you by Time Warner Cable?

******

How’s this for an ownership solution based on absolutely nothing but my own speculation? Let Brewers owner Mark Attanasio, who lives in LA and has been by all accounts a superb owner for Milwaukee, buy the Dodgers. That’s hardly me coming up with a unique idea: Attanasio has long been rumored to be a good fit for the job, to the point where he publicly denied any interest this week.

Here’s how it could work, though. First of all, forget Attanasio’s public denials. Of course he has to say that, because no sale of the Dodgers is imminent, and he’s obviously not going to firebomb his own club when it’s no guarantee that he’d get the Dodgers any time soon. That’s not to say he does or doesn’t have any interest in reality, just that he can’t possibly say anything different right now either way. With the Dodgers coming off of two consecutive scuzzball owners, Selig’s top priority for the future is going to be someone he can trust – which is why you can forget about Mark Cuban – and Attanasio has proven himself to be a quality owner. Besides, Selig’s on record as preferring local ownership, and Attanasio would satisfy that requirement with the Dodgers.

What, then, of the Brewers? Neither Attanasio or Selig would be likely to go through that process and scuttle all of the goodwill that’s been built up in Wisconsin over the last few years. Here’s where the timeframe works out, though – Selig, who bought the Seattle Pilots and moved them to Milwaukee in 1970 – is expected to retire after the 2012 season. What better role for him than to stay in the game and take back control of his beloved Brewers? I can’t speak to his personal wealth, though it was enough to run the team for nearly 30 years and he certainly made a large profit off the sale of the team, but even if he can’t afford it himself he could certainly put together a team of investors. Attanasio gets the Dodgers, Selig gets the Brewers, and two teams end up under solid local ownership.

Again, this is just a fantasy, and it’s very unlikely that it comes to pass. It’s my best-case scenario, however, for those worried about an unknown future owner not being an upgrade on McCourt.

Matt Kemp Continues To Impress

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If you follow me on Twitter at all, you know that I largely blew off work today to hang out in German beer gardens and sports bars to drink giant beers. Fun as that was, if you’re looking for in-depth analysis of today’s game, I’m afraid that for today, you’re looking in the wrong place.

So let’s just say this: Matt Kemp is a golden GOD. No, really, because his 0-2 walkoff dinger was his second in a week. We’ll have more on how awesome Kemp is when I’m more, you know, coherent, but still: good LORD, Matt. Let’s also not forget that Clayton Kershaw was one strike away from a complete game, and that Juan Uribe and Casey Blake each homered (with Blake having three hits), of course. But for the moment? Kemp is making all of my offseason predictions look good.

Smell You Later, Frank McCourt

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Bill Shaikin, God Of All That is Journalism, reports that it’s apocalypse now for Frank McCourt – that Bud Selig will announce today that MLB will be taking over the financial operations of the club. It’s not quite MLB owning the Montreal Expos, but the Dodgers are now one step closer to being a ward of the state. The Dodgers. Unreal. Tommy Lasorda’s probably rolling over in his grave.

So what does this mean? It’s too soon to say, but my initial feeling is it’s bad news short term, but great news long term. If anything, it’s a step towards getting the criminal’s name off the letterhead. And an excuse for me to re-use the “McCourt gets a message” photoshop I did a few months ago.

Much, much, more to come. Have at it in the comments.

On James Loney’s Value and Future

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I realize that the topic du jour around Dodgertown today is going to be the continued failure of the back end of the bullpen (and imagine my surprise when I checked the final score this morning after falling asleep last night in the 8th inning, down 2-1), but there will be plenty of time another day to look at what appears to be an ongoing problem. (Feel free to discuss it in the comments though.)

Today, however, the spotlight falls upon James Loney, who now has the second-lowest OPS+ of any big leaguer who has at least 65 plate appearances in 2011. If I’d bumped the floor up to 70, Carl Crawford would no longer qualify and Loney would stand by himself at the top. Or bottom. Whichever.

Anyway, today is Loney day in no small part because running today at Baseball Prospectus is my first feature article outside the usual weekly fantasy look at relievers. I won’t repost the entire thing here; the introduction focuses on how the failures of Loney, Juan Uribe, Rod Barajas, and Aaron Miles are dragging down the great work of Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and the starting rotation, which is nothing new to most of you, and then mentions how the promotion of Jerry Sands and progress of Trayvon Robinson makes it almost certain that Loney is not long for Los Angeles.

Here’s the money shot, however:

Now, it does seem clear that Loney’s tenure with the Dodgers is drawing to an end one way or another. But what is less clear to me is that he has no future, despite his recent past. That is because he has one massive home/road split, largely unseen aside from players who call Colorado, Texas, or San Diego home.

Loney

PA

Line

HR

Road OPS improvement

Home

1244

.265/.329/.371

18

–

Road

1259

.303/.357/.488

38

+144

In a nearly identical amount of plate appearances over six seasons, Loney has proven to be two completely different players based on whether he is wearing the home whites or the road grays. It’s not the result of one big year either, because we’ve seen this kind of split in every year of his career, to varying degrees. In Dodger Stadium, Loney is essentially David Eckstein or Brendan Harris, players with career 701 OPS marks that mirror Loney’s home performance—that kind of offense is barely acceptable from a middle infielder, and even less so from a first baseman.

Yet, on the road, Loney’s 845 mark puts him in far better company, including Brian McCann, Luis Gonzalez, Jayson Werth, and Hideki Matsui. The use of raw OPS data is imperfect, I will admit, but the point remains: James Loney will not be successful as long as he his forced to play half of his games at Dodger Stadium.

That means the opportunity is there for an enterprising team to buy low (extremely low) on Loney in the hopes that rescuing him from Los Angeles would help bring out the “good” Loney more often. They would do well to keep him away from lefty pitching as well, where he has another large platoon split of 105 points of OPS. This combination makes letting him hit in Dodger Stadium against a southpaw seem like basically a no-win proposition, and indeed he is hitting just .208/.274/.284 lifetime in such situations–a far cry from his “road against righties” mark of .302/.357/.496.

All of this suggests that there may yet be a useful player in there, if he were to land in the right situation and be used carefully. Which teams, then, might be in the market for such a player, either through trade this year or in the offseason assuming the Dodgers let him walk? There are a few places which stand out, starting in the American League with Baltimore, which has an old and aching Derrek Lee on a one-year deal with no obvious replacement (unless you’re still on board the Brandon Snyder train). The argument could also be made for Cleveland, with Matt LaPorta not yet proven and still able to switch to left field if needed, and Tampa, where the umpteenth Dan Johnson experiment has not started well.

In the National League, Adam LaRoche is signed through 2012 in Washington, but never seems to stay anywhere longer than a year at a time and should never be seen as a roadblock for anyone–the same could be said for Lyle Overbay in Pittsburgh. Staying in the Central, Chicago, St. Louis, and Milwaukee could all see their incumbent first basemen move on after the season, and there’s the less-likely but non-zero possibility that Houston could sour on Brett Wallace and choose to bring Loney back to his hometown.

Regardless of where he may land, Loney is an interesting case study simply because no one seems to get his value correctly. The “traditional” community, taken in by a sweet swing and solid RBI totals, continues to overvalue him and considers him to be a vital part of the young Dodger core, along with Kemp, Ethier, Chad Billingsley, and Clayton Kershaw. Conversely, the advanced stats community tends to despise him, generally considering that his lack of production from a power position and defensive metrics that don’t quite match his reputation to equal a very subpar package. (If only to illustrate that last point, I took part in an NL-only draft with several members of this site and other well-known sites just before the season; Loney lasted until the 344th pick. At any given time, there are only 400 players on the sixteen twenty-five man rosters in the league.)

The truth is likely somewhere in between, and though I will shed no tears as a Dodger fan when he finally leaves, let’s not be surprised at all if he immediately turns it around in a new home next year.

That’s right; after all the moaning I’ve done about Loney, particularly on Twitter during games, I still see hope for him – just not as a Dodger. I can just imagine what’ll happen if and when he goes to another team and does well; the shitstorm among Dodger fans will be immense, despite 98% of them having no clue about his home/road splits. (For the record, I’ve been talking about Loney’s home/road split issues for a while; I believe I mentioned them back in late 2009 for the 2010 Maple Street Press Dodger Annual.)

But I’m not the only one talking about Loney today, because Eric Seidman of Brotherly Glove has taken the topic on at Fangraphs as well. Though we agree that Loney isn’t helping the Dodgers at all, his outlook is a bit more dour than mine:

I’m not advocating an outright release of Loney, but the Dodgers should make a serious push to trade him.

If it took them three years to realize he isn’t the player they saw in 2006-07, it stands to reason that a few other teams might be equally slow in coming to this realization.

If nobody bites, they should look to split playing time between several players to extract the most value out of the position, instead of slavishly sticking to a below average player. If they fail to trade him then the team should certainly non-tender him after the season. Either way, this should be Loney’s final season on the Dodgers, and a big key to their potential playoff contention will involve drastically reducing his playing time.

Loney has perked up a bit with three hits in his last two games, though one was merely a well-placed grounder to the vacated shortstop hole on a hit-and-run. Either way, I tend to think it’s too little, too late. But the point about value stands – plenty of people, and presumably a few teams, greatly overvalue Loney because of his former top prospect status and pretty RBI totals. If the Dodgers can take advantage of that to move him for just about anything useful, I think they need to do it. And if that means Loney goes elsewhere, succeeds, and makes the Dodgers look foolish to some, then all the better for him – because it’s just not working out here.