Monthly Archives: May 2011

Who’s Going to Lose Their Job When Marcus Thames Returns?

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Over the weekend, the Dodgers got some good news as far as the continued recovery of their legions of injured, as both Vicente Padilla and Marcus Thames began their rehab stints in the minors. Padilla threw two scoreless innings for Rancho Cucamonga, striking out one and allowing a hit, and he was reportedly back at Dodger Stadium for Monday’s game. He’ll likely need another outing or two in the minors, but may not be far from returning. When he does, there’s no shortage of young relievers in the current bullpen who could be sent back down to the minors to clear up a spot. (My money’s on Ramon Troncoso.)

Thames homered in his Albuquerque debut on Sunday, then went 0-4 on Monday. He played left field both days, and considering he was able to play in the field on consecutive days to start his rehab, we can do a bit of speculation and infer that he’ll be ready to return soon. But unlike with Padilla, there’s no obvious answer to the question of how he gets put back on the roster. So the question must be asked: who is about to lose their job for Marcus Thames?

Let’s get the obvious right out of the way and say that as much as we might pray for it, I don’t think there’s any chance that Juan Castro goes. If he’s cut, the club will have only four active infielders for the three non-1B spots in Casey Blake, Jamey Carroll, Rafael Furcal, & Aaron Miles. All four are at least 33, and I don’t need to remind you of the various injury concerns there. It’s not a risk the club would – or should – take at this point, though we may finally get rid of Castro when Juan Uribe returns later in June.

That means – assuming that they won’t drop from 12 pitchers to 11, which is extremely unlikely – that when Thames returns, we’re saying goodbye to Tony Gwynn, Jay Gibbons… or Jerry Sands. Let’s look at how they’ve been used since May 3, the day that Gibbons returned from the DL to take Thames’ spot.

There’s no typo there – Gwynn has just two hits in May as we enter the last day of play, and has only 16 on the season. Though he’s gotten into more games than anyone, he’s started just three; he’s been all-but-exclusively a defensive replacement, and if not for the fact that he had to replace Matt Kemp against Florida last week after Kemp was ejected, he might not have even had the chance to get that second hit.

Gwynn’s lack of production and low-impact role would seem to make this a simple choice… except for one issue: he’s the only one capable of playing center field other than Kemp, and he’s the only plus glove in what is generally a below-average defensive group. Sands and Ethier are average fielders on their best days, and Gibbons and Thames are really designated hitters who have been handed gloves. If Gwynn is gone, what happens if Kemp needs a day off or suffers a minor injury? Do we really want Thames or Gibbons out there in the 9th inning of a tight game when defense is crucial? Were you that entertained by Sands’ emergency appearance in center recently that we should make it a more regular thing?

So that leaves us with Gibbons or Sands… and here’s the part I don’t think you’re going to like. I think it’s going to be Sands heading back to the minors.* I don’t like it any more than you do, but just look at how the pieces are falling into place. (My arguments here are just how I imagine the team might think, not necessarily how I’d look at it, of course.)

*unless, of course, another injury – real or imagined – pops up in the next few days.

  1. Thames is a righty power bat who can kind of sort of play left field & first base, as is Sands. If Gwynn is really just the defense guy, I can easily see Don Mattingly preferring a lefty/righty duo for this role in Gibbons and Thames, rather than two righties in Sands and Thames.
  2. Sands has been good – dig that .371 May OBP – but you can’t argue he’s been great. This isn’t Russell Martin coming up and wowing in 2006; this is a guy who is hitting .221 with two homers. (This is where you chime in and note that Sands has shown much improvement since arriving and is tied with Kemp for the highest May OPS, at .784. I get it, and I agree. Just playing devil’s advocate here.)
  3. Mattingly seems to like Gibbons, who has started nine of the last ten games (partially, I will admit, because Ethier’s injury opened up more playing time last weekend.) Gibbons hasn’t done much to repay that faith with indifferent offense and questionable defense.
  4. The Dodgers have a long-established history of wanting to keep as many players under control as possible. Unless a veteran has been so bad that he’s just impossible to hang on to (I’m looking at you, Lance Cormier), they’ll usually wait as long as possible before dropping the DFA hammer. Sands has options. Gibbons does not.
  5. With James Loney showing signs of life in recent days – the Dodgers having shown no inclination to dump him anyway – and Casey Blake now available to be a RH 1B on some days (along with Thames), there’s less of a need for Sands to be available to play first base.

I don’t like to think it either, but there’s plenty of reason to be worried that Gibbons sticks and Sands doesn’t when Thames returns, as crazy as it may sound to send down one of the team’s top offensive performers. To be honest, I don’t think the Dodgers really want to send out either, but they’re also not going to not activate Thames. So unless you think that they’ll really go down to 11 pitchers, risk cutting Castro and have just one backup infielder, or cut Gwynn and risk not having a backup center fielder, this is the choice you’re left with – unless you’re a true believer in the ‘phantom injury.’ (Hey, maybe Gibbons is still having eye issues?)

Let’s hear your opinion in the comments and the poll below.

[polldaddy poll=5100277]

Loney & Billingsley Lead Another Laugher

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James Loney hadn’t thrilled the home crowd with a homer since August 31, 2010, when he took Philadelphia’s Kyle Kendrick deep. He’s now done it twice in four days, tonight leading the Dodgers with three hits as they battered Colorado’s Jason Hammel and the reeling Rockies on their way to a 7-1 win. Loney’s certainly playing like a man who wants to keep his job, and a .295/.354/.420 in May is certainly a good start. It’ll certainly take more than that to overcome everything else, but it’s a step in the right direction, and for all the heat he’s taken here and elsewhere over the last year, it’s fantastic to see any bit of a spark from him. I’ll take it – and I’ll also take six hits from the top third of the lineup, as Rafael Furcal, Jamey Carroll, and Andre Ethier each chipped in two. Considering all three of these guys were struggling just a few days ago, having them all click at the same time is a welcome sight.

Chad Billingsley allowed just one run over seven innings, striking out eight, which sounds great on the surface but doesn’t quite illustrate how much of a tight line he was walking. Billingsley allowed eleven hits, which is a new career high, and allowed the first man to reach in each of his last six innings. (Scott Elbert let his first man reach too, so make that seven consecutive innings.) Despite that, the only Colorado damage came on a Ty Wigginton blast in the 4th, which somehow came without anyone on base, as Todd Helton‘s leadoff walk was erased by Seth Smith‘s ensuing double play. Hardly the most dominating we’ve seen Billingsley, though I suppose he deserves the W tonight based simply on all the times he was dominant and received no support from the subpar offense. Still, he managed to string most of those hits across different innings without allowing Colorado to put up the one big inning you’d think that sort of baserunner total would lead to, and that’s a performance worth noting (with credit due to Matt Kemp for unleashing a laser throw to the plate to end the first inning, the only time Colorado could string some hits together) . But don’t forget, kids, Billingsley can’t pitch with a lead, right?

Keeping this one short and sweet tonight, since it’s the end of a gorgeous holiday weekend. Plenty of fun to come this week, though.

Clayton Kershaw’s Best Start Ever Leads Group Effort

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Earlier this afternoon, I attended the Phillies/Mets game at CitiField, where Philadelphia starter Vance Worley lasted just three innings, allowing twelve hits and eight runs (five earned) in that time. In person, it was even worse than that; even the outs he was getting were hit hard. Who knew that it wouldn’t be close to being the worst starting pitching performance I’d see today?

The Dodgers saw to that by finally breaking out of their long offensive slump and pounding Florida starter Ricky Nolasco for fifteen hits and eight runs in five innings of work. The fifteen hits were the most by the Dodgers against any starting pitcher since 1982, and are the most allowed by a starting pitcher in Marlins history. Overall, they collected seventeen hits, their most since doing the same last May against Arizona.

In my mind, far more impressive than the group output – though that was badly, badly needed – is the fact that much of it came from names we haven’t seen contribute much this year. Rafael Furcal, Andre Ethier, and Jay Gibbons all had three hits, with Furcal starting off the scoring by hitting his first homer of the year in the bottom of the third. The value of Furcal at the top of this lineup can’t be understated – I don’t have the exact numbers in front of me, but the team scores approximately 47 more runs per game with him in than without him since he’s arrived – and his day is all the more welcome considering what a slow start he’d been off to since returning from injury. Gibbons, who had contributed barely anything all year, finally made some sort of case with his roster spot with his three hits, though he did misplay a flyout to left into a double on Clayton Kershaw‘s ledger. The breakout from Ethier counts as a new contribution as well, since he was hitting just .228/.315/.316 in May coming into today’s game. With Matt Kemp getting ejected (along with Don Mattingly) for arguing balls and strikes in the 4th inning and early-season star Jamey Carroll‘s last hit now a week in his rear-view mirror, the offense from some unexpected sources was absolutely vital.

But it didn’t stop there. Casey Blake had two hits, Dioner Navarro had two… and so did Kershaw, whose pitching performance absolutely should not get lost in the offensive outburst, though it probably will. It figures that on a day where the Dodgers finally break out the bats, they almost didn’t need to, because Kershaw was dominant. The line says he allowed two hits and issued a walk, which combined with ten strikeouts over nine shutout innings is fantastic enough, but even that’s not enough praise; Logan Morrison‘s double should have been a simple out, but dropped thanks to swirling winds in left field that Gibbons couldn’t handle.

Of Kershaw’s eight innings, he set down the Marlins 1-2-3 in five of them. Not once did the Marlins bring more than four men to the plate in an inning, and the only inning they even put more than one batter on base – the 7th – it was hardly Kershaw’s fault, as that was when Gibbons and Furcal each misplayed balls caught in the wind to left field.

This was Kershaw’s second career shutout, and as far as Game Score goes, it was his most dominating performance yet. His score for today was 92, and as you can see from his list heading into today, that puts this squarely at the top. It’s also the second time this season that Kershaw has rewritten his “top five greatest hits” list:

Rk Date Opp Rslt App,Dec IP H ER BB SO HR Pit GSc 2B 3B
1 2010-05-09 COL W 2-0 GS-8 ,W 8.0 2 0 3 9 0 117 84 0 0
2 2010-09-14 SFG W 1-0 SHO9 ,W 9.0 4 0 0 4 0 111 83 1 0
3 2009-04-15 SFG W 5-4 GS-7 7.0 1 1 1 13 1 105 83 0 0
4 2009-08-08 ATL L 1-2 GS-7 7.0 2 0 1 10 0 103 82 1 0
5 2011-05-13 ARI W 4-3 GS-7 ,W 7.0 3 0 2 11 0 106 80 2 0
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/29/2011.

Earlier today, Kershaw was tied for fifth on the baseball-reference pitcher NL WAR scoreboard with Jair Jurrjens and Ian Kennedy, just behind the injured Josh Johnson. This game ought to be enough to push him at least into third and possibly into second when b-r refreshes their standings overnight. With Kemp tied for the lead with Ryan Braun and Joey Votto on the batting side, that gives the Dodgers one of the most valuable duos in baseball leading their club.

All season long, we’ve worried that their production would be wasted by a supporting cast that just wasn’t up to the job. For one day, at least, this was a team-wide effort, and a great way to spend a holiday weekend.

******

The big news of the day, of course, was that Josh Lindblom was finally called up to the big club, with Kenley Jansen placed on the DL with shoulder inflammation. I say “finally”, because Lindblom was seemingly on the verge of making his debut as far back as spring of 2009. He just missed the cut, and when the club tried to turn him into a starter in the minors, it backfired terribly, leading to last year’s troubling AAA campaign where he allowed 13.5 hits per nine and ended with a 6.54 ERA in 40 games (10 starts). Back in AA this year and strictly as a reliever, he’s been striking out 12.2/9 and cutting down on the hits. Though it’s nice to see Lindblom finally make it, this is another blow to the bullpen, as Jansen had put together ten scoreless consecutive outings (and an 18/5 K/BB) before being touched in each of his last two.

It seems clear that the Dodgers are massively unimpressed by both the talent and environment in Albuquerque, at least when it comes to pitching prospects. Lindblom is now the third consecutive call-up to come from Chattanooga, following Javy Guerra and Rubby De La Rosa, and that’s where Jansen was sent when he was briefly demoted earlier this year as well.

Initially I was mildly bothered that Schlichting was DFA’d, since he’d shown flashes in his brief times up, but after checking the 40-man roster, it’s really a move that was unavoidable. Since the Dodgers have six players on the 15-man DL, and no obvious candidates to be moved to the 60-day DL, the 40-man roster is in a tight squeeze. Schlichting had been brutal in AAA this year anyway, walking more than he’d struck out with a high HR/9 rate. It’s probably likely that he doesn’t get claimed on waivers regardless, and it’s the right choice.

Shocking, Breaking News

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Sports Illustrated‘s Jon Heyman lays some knowledge on us:

Executives say Dodgers first baseman James Loney is a likely non-tender candidate as his power has not yet developed as hoped.

Shockingly, the first baseman who is already making $4.875m this year, has another year of arbitration left, and has declined in each year of his career while hitting .238/.286/.287  this season might not be offered a contract next year. I know! It’s almost like every statisticial metric available doesn’t rate him as being at or near the worst first baseman in the game, right?

Seriously though, I’ve barely even mentioned the idea of Loney being non-tendered because it seemed like such a foregone conclusion at this point. Remember, there was serious consideration given in some corners of the internet to non-tendering him after last year (I proposed trading him for LHP Tom Gorzelanny, and using the money spent on Jon Garland elsewhere), and now that he’s more expensive and less productive, his non-tender seems absolute, particularly since any hope of suckering a team into trading for him seems impossible now that they don’t even have shiny RBI totals to dream on.

Heyman’s wrong about one thing, though: it’s not just that his power isn’t there. That may have been the issue in years past, but clearly it’s far more serious than just that in 2011. I had wanted to end this post with some” to Loney’s credit, even though the power isn’t there, he has been better in recent weeks” positivity, but looking at the numbers, that’s barely true: in May, he’s hitting .276/.345/.342 (.687). Better than April’s .489 OPS? Sure. Good? Ah, not really. Not unless he keeps up that trend and somehow has an OPS of .888 in June, which is probably about as likely as me having an .888 OPS in June.

Still, there continues to be no obvious alternative to playing him, at least not until Trayvon Robinson is ready – and he just ended an 0-25 streak in ABQ. So play him they will, in hopes that he can find even a tiny bit of his lost value.  But as Heyman has just figured out, non-tender-ville awaits.

******

One year ago today, I made two posts on this site. One was very happy, where I was able to share the news that Ramon Ortiz had finally been dumped in favor of Justin Miller, whom I never thought got enough credit for striking out 3.75 times as many as he walked while a Dodger.

The second post? It was about John Ely picking up the loss despite making it into the 8th inning allowing just one run. That’s the one that haunts me a little bit, because if you remember, the 2010 season started off with ridiculous amounts of offense that the patchwork pitching staff couldn’t support. Ely’s game and one by Clayton Kershaw just before it was the start of the current “good pitching, no offense” era we’re currently in, and at the time, I said I liked that problem a whole lot better:

Yet as depressing as it is to see such great pitching performances going to waste, I feel a whole lot better about these losses than the ones we saw in April. Remember early in the season, when the Dodger offense was kicking ass and taking names – yet it didn’t really matter, since the pitching was so terrible?

And what did all of that fantastic offense get us? A 9-14 April record. At the time, you knew that the offense would eventually come back to earth a bit, but you couldn’t be equally sure that the pitching would turn it around.

Now, we’re seeing pitching that’s not only improved, but seems to be a good bet to keep it going. Chad Billingsley and Kershaw have found their grooves, Ely’s been a revelation, and both Ortizes are gone. Meanwhile, the offensive failure of the last few days can be seen as a bump in the road for a still-dangerous group – especially when Andre Ethier‘s return is imminent.

Of course, Ethier wasn’t the same, Manny Ramirez got hurt, Loney cratered, Matt Kemp couldn’t keep up his tremendous April, and the front office answers to those concerns consisted of Ryan Theriot and Scott Podsednik. And we’ve been living with the same conundrum ever since. If only I could go back in time and warn myself.

******

The Rockies finally DFA’d Jose Lopez earlier today, in addition to sending Felipe Paulino to Kansas City for cash. Hmm, a middle infielder from a division rival with horrendous on-base skills and some mild pop, while playing decentish defense at multiple positions? Sounds like he deserves a three-year, $21m contract, no?

****** 

Javier Vazquez starts for Florida against Garland tonight, and that’s interesting for one reason. Vazquez has been awful this year (5.30 xFIP and basically as many walks as strikeouts), and he was was even worse with the Yankees last year. But he’s never had a day as bad as April 19, 2003, when he became part of the sad select fraternity of “pitchers who have allowed a home run to Juan Castro“. In the last five years, Castro has six homers, and not a single one has come in over two years. Tonight could be the night!