2011 May « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness

Who’s Going to Lose Their Job When Marcus Thames Returns?

May 31, 2011 at 11:19 am | Posted in Jay Gibbons, Jerry Sands, Marcus Thames, Tony Gwynn | 52 Comments

Over the weekend, the Dodgers got some good news as far as the continued recovery of their legions of injured, as both Vicente Padilla and Marcus Thames began their rehab stints in the minors. Padilla threw two scoreless innings for Rancho Cucamonga, striking out one and allowing a hit, and he was reportedly back at Dodger Stadium for Monday’s game. He’ll likely need another outing or two in the minors, but may not be far from returning. When he does, there’s no shortage of young relievers in the current bullpen who could be sent back down to the minors to clear up a spot. (My money’s on Ramon Troncoso.)

Thames homered in his Albuquerque debut on Sunday, then went 0-4 on Monday. He played left field both days, and considering he was able to play in the field on consecutive days to start his rehab, we can do a bit of speculation and infer that he’ll be ready to return soon. But unlike with Padilla, there’s no obvious answer to the question of how he gets put back on the roster. So the question must be asked: who is about to lose their job for Marcus Thames?

Let’s get the obvious right out of the way and say that as much as we might pray for it, I don’t think there’s any chance that Juan Castro goes. If he’s cut, the club will have only four active infielders for the three non-1B spots in Casey Blake, Jamey Carroll, Rafael Furcal, & Aaron Miles. All four are at least 33, and I don’t need to remind you of the various injury concerns there. It’s not a risk the club would – or should – take at this point, though we may finally get rid of Castro when Juan Uribe returns later in June.

That means – assuming that they won’t drop from 12 pitchers to 11, which is extremely unlikely – that when Thames returns, we’re saying goodbye to Tony Gwynn, Jay Gibbons… or Jerry Sands. Let’s look at how they’ve been used since May 3, the day that Gibbons returned from the DL to take Thames’ spot.

There’s no typo there – Gwynn has just two hits in May as we enter the last day of play, and has only 16 on the season. Though he’s gotten into more games than anyone, he’s started just three; he’s been all-but-exclusively a defensive replacement, and if not for the fact that he had to replace Matt Kemp against Florida last week after Kemp was ejected, he might not have even had the chance to get that second hit.

Gwynn’s lack of production and low-impact role would seem to make this a simple choice… except for one issue: he’s the only one capable of playing center field other than Kemp, and he’s the only plus glove in what is generally a below-average defensive group. Sands and Ethier are average fielders on their best days, and Gibbons and Thames are really designated hitters who have been handed gloves. If Gwynn is gone, what happens if Kemp needs a day off or suffers a minor injury? Do we really want Thames or Gibbons out there in the 9th inning of a tight game when defense is crucial? Were you that entertained by Sands’ emergency appearance in center recently that we should make it a more regular thing?

So that leaves us with Gibbons or Sands… and here’s the part I don’t think you’re going to like. I think it’s going to be Sands heading back to the minors.* I don’t like it any more than you do, but just look at how the pieces are falling into place. (My arguments here are just how I imagine the team might think, not necessarily how I’d look at it, of course.)

*unless, of course, another injury – real or imagined – pops up in the next few days.

Thames is a righty power bat who can kind of sort of play left field & first base, as is Sands. If Gwynn is really just the defense guy, I can easily see Don Mattingly preferring a lefty/righty duo for this role in Gibbons and Thames, rather than two righties in Sands and Thames.
Sands has been good – dig that .371 May OBP – but you can’t argue he’s been great. This isn’t Russell Martin coming up and wowing in 2006; this is a guy who is hitting .221 with two homers. (This is where you chime in and note that Sands has shown much improvement since arriving and is tied with Kemp for the highest May OPS, at .784. I get it, and I agree. Just playing devil’s advocate here.)
Mattingly seems to like Gibbons, who has started nine of the last ten games (partially, I will admit, because Ethier’s injury opened up more playing time last weekend.) Gibbons hasn’t done much to repay that faith with indifferent offense and questionable defense.
The Dodgers have a long-established history of wanting to keep as many players under control as possible. Unless a veteran has been so bad that he’s just impossible to hang on to (I’m looking at you, Lance Cormier), they’ll usually wait as long as possible before dropping the DFA hammer. Sands has options. Gibbons does not.
With James Loney showing signs of life in recent days – the Dodgers having shown no inclination to dump him anyway – and Casey Blake now available to be a RH 1B on some days (along with Thames), there’s less of a need for Sands to be available to play first base.

I don’t like to think it either, but there’s plenty of reason to be worried that Gibbons sticks and Sands doesn’t when Thames returns, as crazy as it may sound to send down one of the team’s top offensive performers. To be honest, I don’t think the Dodgers really want to send out either, but they’re also not going to not activate Thames. So unless you think that they’ll really go down to 11 pitchers, risk cutting Castro and have just one backup infielder, or cut Gwynn and risk not having a backup center fielder, this is the choice you’re left with – unless you’re a true believer in the ‘phantom injury.’ (Hey, maybe Gibbons is still having eye issues?)

Let’s hear your opinion in the comments and the poll below.

Loney & Billingsley Lead Another Laugher

May 30, 2011 at 5:31 pm | Posted in Chad Billingsley, James Loney | 27 Comments

James Loney hadn’t thrilled the home crowd with a homer since August 31, 2010, when he took Philadelphia’s Kyle Kendrick deep. He’s now done it twice in four days, tonight leading the Dodgers with three hits as they battered Colorado’s Jason Hammel and the reeling Rockies on their way to a 7-1 win. Loney’s certainly playing like a man who wants to keep his job, and a .295/.354/.420 in May is certainly a good start. It’ll certainly take more than that to overcome everything else, but it’s a step in the right direction, and for all the heat he’s taken here and elsewhere over the last year, it’s fantastic to see any bit of a spark from him. I’ll take it – and I’ll also take six hits from the top third of the lineup, as Rafael Furcal, Jamey Carroll, and Andre Ethier each chipped in two. Considering all three of these guys were struggling just a few days ago, having them all click at the same time is a welcome sight.

Chad Billingsley allowed just one run over seven innings, striking out eight, which sounds great on the surface but doesn’t quite illustrate how much of a tight line he was walking. Billingsley allowed eleven hits, which is a new career high, and allowed the first man to reach in each of his last six innings. (Scott Elbert let his first man reach too, so make that seven consecutive innings.) Despite that, the only Colorado damage came on a Ty Wigginton blast in the 4th, which somehow came without anyone on base, as Todd Helton‘s leadoff walk was erased by Seth Smith‘s ensuing double play. Hardly the most dominating we’ve seen Billingsley, though I suppose he deserves the W tonight based simply on all the times he was dominant and received no support from the subpar offense. Still, he managed to string most of those hits across different innings without allowing Colorado to put up the one big inning you’d think that sort of baserunner total would lead to, and that’s a performance worth noting (with credit due to Matt Kemp for unleashing a laser throw to the plate to end the first inning, the only time Colorado could string some hits together) . But don’t forget, kids, Billingsley can’t pitch with a lead, right?

Keeping this one short and sweet tonight, since it’s the end of a gorgeous holiday weekend. Plenty of fun to come this week, though.

Clayton Kershaw’s Best Start Ever Leads Group Effort

May 29, 2011 at 12:48 pm | Posted in Clayton Kershaw, Josh Lindblom, Kenley Jansen, Travis Schlichting | 30 Comments

Earlier this afternoon, I attended the Phillies/Mets game at CitiField, where Philadelphia starter Vance Worley lasted just three innings, allowing twelve hits and eight runs (five earned) in that time. In person, it was even worse than that; even the outs he was getting were hit hard. Who knew that it wouldn’t be close to being the worst starting pitching performance I’d see today?

The Dodgers saw to that by finally breaking out of their long offensive slump and pounding Florida starter Ricky Nolasco for fifteen hits and eight runs in five innings of work. The fifteen hits were the most by the Dodgers against any starting pitcher since 1982, and are the most allowed by a starting pitcher in Marlins history. Overall, they collected seventeen hits, their most since doing the same last May against Arizona.

In my mind, far more impressive than the group output – though that was badly, badly needed – is the fact that much of it came from names we haven’t seen contribute much this year. Rafael Furcal, Andre Ethier, and Jay Gibbons all had three hits, with Furcal starting off the scoring by hitting his first homer of the year in the bottom of the third. The value of Furcal at the top of this lineup can’t be understated – I don’t have the exact numbers in front of me, but the team scores approximately 47 more runs per game with him in than without him since he’s arrived – and his day is all the more welcome considering what a slow start he’d been off to since returning from injury. Gibbons, who had contributed barely anything all year, finally made some sort of case with his roster spot with his three hits, though he did misplay a flyout to left into a double on Clayton Kershaw‘s ledger. The breakout from Ethier counts as a new contribution as well, since he was hitting just .228/.315/.316 in May coming into today’s game. With Matt Kemp getting ejected (along with Don Mattingly) for arguing balls and strikes in the 4th inning and early-season star Jamey Carroll‘s last hit now a week in his rear-view mirror, the offense from some unexpected sources was absolutely vital.

But it didn’t stop there. Casey Blake had two hits, Dioner Navarro had two… and so did Kershaw, whose pitching performance absolutely should not get lost in the offensive outburst, though it probably will. It figures that on a day where the Dodgers finally break out the bats, they almost didn’t need to, because Kershaw was dominant. The line says he allowed two hits and issued a walk, which combined with ten strikeouts over nine shutout innings is fantastic enough, but even that’s not enough praise; Logan Morrison‘s double should have been a simple out, but dropped thanks to swirling winds in left field that Gibbons couldn’t handle.

Of Kershaw’s eight innings, he set down the Marlins 1-2-3 in five of them. Not once did the Marlins bring more than four men to the plate in an inning, and the only inning they even put more than one batter on base – the 7th – it was hardly Kershaw’s fault, as that was when Gibbons and Furcal each misplayed balls caught in the wind to left field.

This was Kershaw’s second career shutout, and as far as Game Score goes, it was his most dominating performance yet. His score for today was 92, and as you can see from his list heading into today, that puts this squarely at the top. It’s also the second time this season that Kershaw has rewritten his “top five greatest hits” list:

Rk	Date	Opp	Rslt	App,Dec	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	HR	Pit	GSc	2B
1	2010-05-09	COL	W 2-0	GS-8 ,W	8.0	2	0	3	9	0	117	84	0
2	2010-09-14	SFG	W 1-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	4	0	0	4	0	111	83	1
3	2009-04-15	SFG	W 5-4	GS-7	7.0	1	1	1	13	1	105	83	0
4	2009-08-08	ATL	L 1-2	GS-7	7.0	2	0	1	10	0	103	82	1
5	2011-05-13	ARI	W 4-3	GS-7 ,W	7.0	3	0	2	11	0	106	80	2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/29/2011.

Earlier today, Kershaw was tied for fifth on the baseball-reference pitcher NL WAR scoreboard with Jair Jurrjens and Ian Kennedy, just behind the injured Josh Johnson. This game ought to be enough to push him at least into third and possibly into second when b-r refreshes their standings overnight. With Kemp tied for the lead with Ryan Braun and Joey Votto on the batting side, that gives the Dodgers one of the most valuable duos in baseball leading their club.

All season long, we’ve worried that their production would be wasted by a supporting cast that just wasn’t up to the job. For one day, at least, this was a team-wide effort, and a great way to spend a holiday weekend.

******

The big news of the day, of course, was that Josh Lindblom was finally called up to the big club, with Kenley Jansen placed on the DL with shoulder inflammation. I say “finally”, because Lindblom was seemingly on the verge of making his debut as far back as spring of 2009. He just missed the cut, and when the club tried to turn him into a starter in the minors, it backfired terribly, leading to last year’s troubling AAA campaign where he allowed 13.5 hits per nine and ended with a 6.54 ERA in 40 games (10 starts). Back in AA this year and strictly as a reliever, he’s been striking out 12.2/9 and cutting down on the hits. Though it’s nice to see Lindblom finally make it, this is another blow to the bullpen, as Jansen had put together ten scoreless consecutive outings (and an 18/5 K/BB) before being touched in each of his last two.

It seems clear that the Dodgers are massively unimpressed by both the talent and environment in Albuquerque, at least when it comes to pitching prospects. Lindblom is now the third consecutive call-up to come from Chattanooga, following Javy Guerra and Rubby De La Rosa, and that’s where Jansen was sent when he was briefly demoted earlier this year as well.

Initially I was mildly bothered that Schlichting was DFA’d, since he’d shown flashes in his brief times up, but after checking the 40-man roster, it’s really a move that was unavoidable. Since the Dodgers have six players on the 15-man DL, and no obvious candidates to be moved to the 60-day DL, the 40-man roster is in a tight squeeze. Schlichting had been brutal in AAA this year anyway, walking more than he’d struck out with a high HR/9 rate. It’s probably likely that he doesn’t get claimed on waivers regardless, and it’s the right choice.

Shocking, Breaking News

May 27, 2011 at 9:55 pm | Posted in Dioner Navarro, James Loney | 31 Comments

Of the three runs the Dodgers scored tonight, two came off the bats of regular whipping boys James Loney (a homer, no less!) and Dioner Navarro, who drove in Casey Blake with a pinch-hit single in the 9th. Shocking, breaking news, indeed.

Shocking, Breaking News

May 27, 2011 at 11:47 am | Posted in James Loney, Juan Castro | 21 Comments

Sports Illustrated‘s Jon Heyman lays some knowledge on us:

Executives say Dodgers first baseman James Loney is a likely non-tender candidate as his power has not yet developed as hoped.

Shockingly, the first baseman who is already making $4.875m this year, has another year of arbitration left, and has declined in each year of his career while hitting .238/.286/.287 this season might not be offered a contract next year. I know! It’s almost like every statisticial metric available doesn’t rate him as being at or near the worst first baseman in the game, right?

Seriously though, I’ve barely even mentioned the idea of Loney being non-tendered because it seemed like such a foregone conclusion at this point. Remember, there was serious consideration given in some corners of the internet to non-tendering him after last year (I proposed trading him for LHP Tom Gorzelanny, and using the money spent on Jon Garland elsewhere), and now that he’s more expensive and less productive, his non-tender seems absolute, particularly since any hope of suckering a team into trading for him seems impossible now that they don’t even have shiny RBI totals to dream on.

Heyman’s wrong about one thing, though: it’s not just that his power isn’t there. That may have been the issue in years past, but clearly it’s far more serious than just that in 2011. I had wanted to end this post with some” to Loney’s credit, even though the power isn’t there, he has been better in recent weeks” positivity, but looking at the numbers, that’s barely true: in May, he’s hitting .276/.345/.342 (.687). Better than April’s .489 OPS? Sure. Good? Ah, not really. Not unless he keeps up that trend and somehow has an OPS of .888 in June, which is probably about as likely as me having an .888 OPS in June.

Still, there continues to be no obvious alternative to playing him, at least not until Trayvon Robinson is ready – and he just ended an 0-25 streak in ABQ. So play him they will, in hopes that he can find even a tiny bit of his lost value. But as Heyman has just figured out, non-tender-ville awaits.

******

One year ago today, I made two posts on this site. One was very happy, where I was able to share the news that Ramon Ortiz had finally been dumped in favor of Justin Miller, whom I never thought got enough credit for striking out 3.75 times as many as he walked while a Dodger.

The second post? It was about John Ely picking up the loss despite making it into the 8th inning allowing just one run. That’s the one that haunts me a little bit, because if you remember, the 2010 season started off with ridiculous amounts of offense that the patchwork pitching staff couldn’t support. Ely’s game and one by Clayton Kershaw just before it was the start of the current “good pitching, no offense” era we’re currently in, and at the time, I said I liked that problem a whole lot better:

Yet as depressing as it is to see such great pitching performances going to waste, I feel a whole lot better about these losses than the ones we saw in April. Remember early in the season, when the Dodger offense was kicking ass and taking names – yet it didn’t really matter, since the pitching was so terrible?

And what did all of that fantastic offense get us? A 9-14 April record. At the time, you knew that the offense would eventually come back to earth a bit, but you couldn’t be equally sure that the pitching would turn it around.

Now, we’re seeing pitching that’s not only improved, but seems to be a good bet to keep it going. Chad Billingsley and Kershaw have found their grooves, Ely’s been a revelation, and both Ortizes are gone. Meanwhile, the offensive failure of the last few days can be seen as a bump in the road for a still-dangerous group – especially when Andre Ethier‘s return is imminent.

Of course, Ethier wasn’t the same, Manny Ramirez got hurt, Loney cratered, Matt Kemp couldn’t keep up his tremendous April, and the front office answers to those concerns consisted of Ryan Theriot and Scott Podsednik. And we’ve been living with the same conundrum ever since. If only I could go back in time and warn myself.

******

The Rockies finally DFA’d Jose Lopez earlier today, in addition to sending Felipe Paulino to Kansas City for cash. Hmm, a middle infielder from a division rival with horrendous on-base skills and some mild pop, while playing decentish defense at multiple positions? Sounds like he deserves a three-year, $21m contract, no?

******

Javier Vazquez starts for Florida against Garland tonight, and that’s interesting for one reason. Vazquez has been awful this year (5.30 xFIP and basically as many walks as strikeouts), and he was was even worse with the Yankees last year. But he’s never had a day as bad as April 19, 2003, when he became part of the sad select fraternity of “pitchers who have allowed a home run to Juan Castro“. In the last five years, Castro has six homers, and not a single one has come in over two years. Tonight could be the night!

Army of Oh-Fers & Curse of 9th Inning Doom Dodgers to Defeat

May 25, 2011 at 2:27 pm | Posted in Ian Snell, Matt Guerrier | 51 Comments

Rafael Furcal, 0-4 (with four left on base). Jamey Carroll, 0-4. James Loney, 0-3 with a walk. Jay Gibbons, 0-3 with a walk. Jerry Sands, 0-4 with three strikeouts. Other than Matt Kemp, who had a double and a homer among his three hits, the rest of the team went 3-29 (two of which came from Dioner Navarro) against something called an “Aneury Rodriguez” (a Rule 5 pick, like Carlos Monasterios was last year) and three Houston relievers. Once again, anemic Dodger offense wasted what was a generally solid pitching effort.

That it was even tied at one headed into the 9th was in large part due to Ted Lilly, who’s had his share of detractors around here. When the homer-prone Lilly allowed a leadoff dinger (on the first pitch, no less) to Michael Bourn, who has just two since the start of 2010 and 11 in parts of six MLB seasons, you’d have been well within your rights to cringe and wonder how bad this was going to get. (I know I did.) But to his credit, Lilly tossed six shutout innings afterwards, despite striking out only two, and Mike MacDougal & Javy Guerra each followed with scoreless frames.

Now I know Matt Guerrier picked up the loss here, as he gave up a double to Brett Wallace and a single to J.R. Towles to blow the game in the 9th. But for once, I don’t want to bag on Guerrier, who has really been the least of the concern in the beleaguered bullpen (ridiculous contract aside). It’s hardly his fault that the team couldn’t score more than one run, and that’s where the bulk of the blame lies here. Again.

However, the fact that yet another 9th-inning situation ended up sideways – even though this wasn’t a save situation – just goes to show how poorly the 9th has gone for the Dodgers this year. Check out their splits by innings, and keep in mind that this doesn’t even include today’s failure.

Split	IP	ERA	PA	R	H	2B	HR	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
1st inning	50.0	2.16	196	13	35	11	2	4.33	.194	.241	.300	.541	.232
2nd inning	50.0	4.86	210	28	51	14	7	3.00	.273	.320	.460	.780	.310
3rd inning	50.0	3.42	216	19	46	10	2	2.18	.254	.343	.354	.696	.328
4th inning	50.0	4.32	218	28	56	8	6	2.22	.289	.349	.423	.772	.333
5th inning	50.0	3.42	200	19	40	6	6	3.31	.217	.271	.359	.630	.250
6th inning	50.0	4.68	220	27	51	8	9	2.14	.263	.338	.454	.792	.300
7th inning	50.0	2.34	209	15	48	7	7	2.60	.249	.303	.404	.707	.279
8th inning	50.0	3.96	217	24	43	11	2	1.47	.239	.351	.344	.695	.306
9th inning	37.1	9.64	194	42	61	12	6	1.75	.359	.430	.547	.977	.423
Ext inning	7.0	1.29	27	1	5	0	0	2.50	.200	.259	.200	.459	.250

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/25/2011.

Does anything, which I may or may not have highlighted in bold red text, stand out to you there? Save situation or not, close game or a blowout, the Dodgers have seen the 9th inning become their teamwide house of horrors all season. Remember, that’s not including today, so the real number might be up around .990 or so. I don’t have the individual breakdowns handy so it’s hard to pinpoint the exact culprits, but let’s be honest about this: it’s been a team effort. I’m sure Jonathan Broxton leads that list, but he is by no means alone on it. Despite relatively good bullpen work over the last two weeks, this is a team that has just been unable to handle their 9th inning issues.

Combine that with a team that has sporadic – at best – offensive spurts, and that’s how you end up losing two of three to the worst team in the National League. With the day off tomorrow, I’m sure it’s going to be an uncomfortably long wait until they get a chance to try and set things right on Friday against the Marlins. The good news is, they might have Casey Blake back for that game. The bad news is, they’re seven games under .500 with the third worst run differential in baseball… and Casey Blake, of all people, could be seen as a monumental upgrade.

******

Via Baseball America‘s Matt Eddy, Ian Snell has ended his short retirement and has joined the Isotopes down in AAA. Snell struggled in the spring for St. Louis and walked away rather than report to the minors. Still just 29, Snell had his moments in Pittsburgh, making 95 starts between 2006-2008 with FIP scores between 4.01-4.58, peaking at 3.5 WAR in 2007. He got off to what looked like a terrible start in 2009 (2-8, 5.36), but was right in line with his previous work (4.61 FIP), before being sent to AAA Indianapolis to dominate (47/13 K/BB, 4 earned runs in 37.1 innings). He was then shipped off to Seattle as part of the Jack Wilson/Jeff Clement deal, where he was generally awful for parts of two seasons before being allowed to leave after 2010.

Still, this is the kind of zero-risk signing I like. Snell’s not 37 and15 years past a prime he never had (yes, I’m talking about, Juan Castro), he’s 29 and not that far away from having been a useful major league starter. For AAA depth, and to serve as something like the 8th starter for the Dodgers (still behind John Ely), that’s a move totally worth making.

Who Had a Better Night?

May 24, 2011 at 7:49 pm | Posted in Jerry Sands, Rubby de la Rosa | 25 Comments

Rubby De La Rosa, who not only was recalled to make his major league debut, but held a one run lead in the 8th by blowing away the heart of the Houston order in Hunter Pence, Carlos Lee, and Brett Wallace?

Jay Gibbons, who finally showed a pulse by hitting his first homer since 1972?

Javy Guerra, who notched his first major league save (the sixth Dodger this year with one) and helped avoid the total catastrophe that would have occurred had he blown another 9th inning lead the night after Kenley Jansen did?

Jerry Sands, who continued his ascent to stardom by hitting his first career grand slam, runs which were vital in a one run victory?

Chad Billingsley, who struck out nine and worked out of a bases loaded jam with only minor damage, and actually had the bullpen hang on to a lead for once?

Clearly, the answer is “none of the above”, and the winner of the night is actually us, for not having to suffer through Lance Cormier any more.

I’m joking (okay, only mostly), because after the events of this weekend and last night, this was a game the Dodgers absolutely had to have. I can’t remember ever feeling that a season was at a lower point than after Jansen coughed up the lead last night. The fact that tonight’s victory largely came on the back of the new wave of prospects – Sands, de la Rosa, and Guerra – only serves to make it sweeter, and though it’s just one game in a long season, it’s at least a positive step in the right direction.

Crushed. Again.

May 23, 2011 at 8:28 pm | Posted in Andre Ethier, Clayton Kershaw, Kenley Jansen, Matt Kemp | 45 Comments

I had written an entire post about how the “stars and scrubs” makeup of this team had really shone through tonight, as Clayton Kershaw, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Jerry Sands nearly singlehandedly won the game without much help from the subpar rest of the roster.

That was going to be the idea…and then Kenley Jansen set fire to the 9th inning, leading to yet another crushing loss in what’s shaping up to be a long season of them. I want to get all torn up about this, but I just can’t. This isn’t a team that’s going anywhere good, so what’s another loss at this point? If anything, this just illustrates the long-held point that Jonathan Broxton isn’t the only one who can run into troubles in the 9th inning. You can say that Jansen got squeezed by the ump, and maybe he did, but it wasn’t the ump who allowed three hits in addition to a hit batter, and it wasn’t the ump who ignored the baserunners. I still have a very high opinion of Jansen’s future, but I guess we can’t forget that he’s still only a 23-year-old pitcher who’s less than two years off his position change.

Or maybe this season is just cursed. Whichever.

The original post remains below, because it was true for 8.2 innings.

******

We’ve long known that the current edition of the Dodgers were a team comprised of a small amount of top players and a larger amount of sub-replacement players, with much of the middle class being wiped out by injury. Never was that more evident than in tonight’s game, where the two big hits were delivered by Matt Kemp & Andre Ethier, and Clayton Kershaw delivered six one-run innings, numbers that could have even been better for him on both sides.

Kemp started off the fun with a no-doubter solo homer off of Houston starter Bud Norris in the second, the 100th of his career, which makes him the 25th Dodger to reach the century mark. He later added his 13th steal, against just three times being caught. That was all the Dodgers would get until a two-out rally the 7th inning, though Houston had tied it in the third largely due to a Bill Hall double which Jay Gibbons, subbing for Ethier in right field, really should have come down with.

Norris retired Gibbons and Jerry Sands to start the seventh, then allowed Dioner Navarro to hit a ground-rule double. Though allowing Navarro to hit an any-rule anything should have been a pretty clear sign that Norris needed to be removed immediately, he stayed in to intentionally walk Russ Mitchell to bring up Kershaw with two on and two out.

At this point, Kershaw had thrown just 84 pitches and had cruised through three clean innings after allowing the run in the third, and Don Mattingly had a decision to make. If this sounds familiar to you at all, it’s because he had a very similar decision to make in Kershaw’s last start out, choosing to remove him in the 5th inning with the bases loaded. That choice backfired immediately when Juan Castro couldn’t get the run home and later came back to haunt him when Lance Cormier was forced into a tie game in the 9th inning, and we all remember how that ended.

This situation was slightly different, as Kershaw had already gone six innings rather than five and it was a tie game rather than a deficit, but Mattingly made the same choice – removing Kershaw early in favor of the pinch-hitter. Here’s where the difference comes in: it’s one thing to lift Kershaw earlier than you’d like so you can hit the worst hitter in baseball… and entirely another thing to lift Kershaw earlier than you’d like so you can bring in Andre Ethier.

Ethier swung and missed at each of the first two pitches he saw before slapping a base hit to center field, scoring Navarro with the go-ahead run. (Mitchell also came in when center fielder Michael Bourn had difficulty picking up the ball, being charged with an error). That put the Dodgers up 3-1, a lead they would not relinquish until, well.. you know.

As you can see from the chart at right, courtesy FanGraphs, only three Dodger hitters contributed positive WPA (Win Percentage Added) scores tonight. (Yes, I see that James Loney is ever so slightly above the zero mark at .002. His one hit was a 40-foot swinging bunt up the third base line. It came in the midst of three groundouts in the sixth inning. I’m making an executive decision to ignore it.) Those three names? Obvious Star Andre Ethier, Obvious Star Matt Kemp… and Emerging Star Jerry Sands, who may not have had a hit tonight but walked three times, part of a streak in which he reached base nine times in ten plate appearances. Sands’ May line now stands at .289/.396/.467. That’s quality production on any team. On this one? It makes him a coming star.

Let’s Go Dumpster Diving

May 23, 2011 at 11:51 am | Posted in Felipe Paulino, Jerry Blevins, Russell Branyan | 46 Comments

The Dodgers find themselves in a tough spot today, as we kick off the last full week of May. The team is being completely crushed by injuries, to the point where seven of the thirteen active position players have seen some minor league time this year, either via rehab or assignment. That’s a number which could rise if any of the current injuries to Andre Ethier, Rod Barajas, or Aaron Miles require another move before the game today.

Yet while the injuries have been so many in number that the club has had trouble even filling out the bench in recent days, this is also a team that’s not necessarily in a position to go out and make a big deal to fill those holes externally. You can point to a variety of reasons for that, whether it’s payroll issues caused by the ownership mess, the totally valid point made by Ned Colletti that there’s just no good deals to be made this early in the season, or my clubhouse leader, “this isn’t a team that’s really good enough to bother trading quality prospects for immediate help anyway”.

Still, while I would love to avoid the prospect of another “James McDonald & Andrew Lambo for 18.2 innings of Octavio Dotel” debacle, things are becoming so dire that it’s not out of the question for the team to look into some low-visibility additions from amongst a few recently DFA’d veterans. Yes, that’s right – I’m suggesting dumpster diving. It’s not sexy, and it wouldn’t be a massive upgrade. But it wouldn’t cost much – a low-level non-prospect or perhaps even less – and for a team that badly needs to round out the bottom of the roster even before considering that they’re still carrying Lance Cormier and Juan Castro, it might be a good temporary solution. You might even luck out and back into the upside these guys once showed, as opposed to some of the “never-wases” we’re looking at now.

Here’s the three recent DFA’s that caught my eye…

Russell Branyan, 1B. Despite the protestations of DodgerTalk announcer Joe Block, whom I generally like, Branyan is without question a superior bat to James Loney. Between 2008-11, Loney has had 2134 plate appearances, with which he’s produced a line of .276/.336/.399 (.735 OPS) and 37 homers. In that same timeframe, Branyan has had 1154 plate appearances, just under half as many, and has put up .243/.334/.504 (.839 OPS) and 69 homers. Look past the batting average, which we know isn’t super important, and Branyan has the same on-base skills and is far more powerful. I believe Block has been taken in by the “RBI” narrative, which we know isn’t an accurate portrayal of skill.

But I wouldn’t be bringing Branyan in as the everyday first baseman, or even to replace Loney on the active roster. Branyan is 35 and a poor defender, and only three times has he received 400 plate appearances in a season. He’d be here because he can murder a baseball, and on a team with the weakest bench in baseball – remember, this is the club that had to throw Castro up with the bases loaded last week – that’s an incredibly valuable skill. Branyan’s role would be as a bench power bat who gets a start at first base once a week or so. We could easily make room by DFA-ing the failed current lefty bench power bat who gets a start once a week or so, Jay Gibbons. Any flexibility lost by not having Gibbons to play in the outfield some would be minimal as Tony Gwynn is barely playing right now anyway, and both Casey Blake and Russ Mitchell can spot out there as needed. Ideally, Trayvon Robinson comes up later in the season to push Jerry Sands to first base and Loney off the team, and then Sands and Branyan can be a nice lefty/righty duo.

Felipe Paulino, RHP. In just 19 games (14 starts) for Houston last year, Paulino generated 1.7 WAR at age 26, a decent enough season that just about everyone laughed when the Astros traded him to Colorado for Clint Barmes. Here’s one take from FanGraphs:

Houston will be mocked for this trade to various degrees. Not because they gave up a high-upside arm like Paulino, but because they did so to acquire a mediocre talent that might have been available at a lesser cost in a matter of weeks. As it stands, Colorado did well to get something in return for Barmes, and particularly well for the return to have upside.

Strictly a reliever this year, Paulino’s time in Colorado did not go well, even though he struck out slightly more and walked slightly less than he did in Houston the year before. That said, his stats are partially inflated by one horrendous outing in April in which he allowed the Cubs to score five times in one-third of an inning; his ERA without that game comes down to a far more palatable 4.46. His xFIP is actually just 3.36, as he got a little unlucky with homers in the early going. He’s still throwing 95 MPH heat, and his starting experience could make him an ideal longman out of the pen, a role this team desperately needs right now. Remember, the idea here isn’t “is this guy going to propel me to a championship?”, because Paulino certainly will not. It’s “is this guy better than the guy I currently have?” and a 27-year-old power arm with strikeout stuff who had trouble in Coors Field is absolutely a better bet than Lance Cormier, particularly when Paulino can go multiple innings if needed. The corresponding move would be obvious: DFA Cormier, then when he clears, you can send him to ABQ if you really care that much.

Jerry Blevins, LHP. When the news broke today that Oakland had DFA’d Blevins, half my Twitter feed lit up with calls of “ooh, I want that guy”. That’s not because he was so good this year – he wasn’t – but because he’s been good in previous years, and getting cut loose from a stacked Oakland bullpen isn’t exactly the death of your career. For most of the last three years, Blevins was a solid American League lefty-killer, holding opposing southpaws to OPS scores of .482, .719, and .598, and striking out just under a man per inning overall. This year, he’s been horrendous, as his walks are way up and he’s generating fewer swing-and-misses as he had before. I suppose now that I’ve looked into him a little more closely, I’m less interested in him than I would be in Branyan and Paulino, because there’s less of an obvious fit – Scott Elbert has gotten off to a very good start as the lone lefty in the bullpen. Still, with no return date for Hong-Chih Kuo, you could make the argument that it’s worth a look at Blevins to see if a move to the National League might cure some of what’s ailed him, hoping that the decent work of the last three years can return. To make room, Ramon Troncoso could be shipped back to ABQ, which is where he probably belongs right now.

The beauty here is, the cost would (presumably) be so low that if it doesn’t work out with these guys or others like them, there’s no harm in cutting them loose. The bottom of the roster looks to churn all year, and so you might as well make a low-risk play for some upside where you can. It’s not like there’s much danger of losing guys like Gibbons or Cormier through waivers, so they could still be available to return later if you wanted, though hopefully the return of injured players would make that less of an issue.

The Dodgers can’t, and shouldn’t, make big upgrades right now. They can look into minor upside plays, if the cost and situation are right. In these cases, they might just be.

Hiroki Kuroda Was Awful, and That’s The Least Of Our Problems

May 22, 2011 at 2:32 pm | Posted in Andre Ethier, Hiroki Kuroda, Jerry Sands, John Ely, Rafael Furcal, Rod Barajas | 49 Comments

At this point, if it weren’t so sad, it’d be funny.

Through three and a half innings, this was just another nondescript game in what’s quickly turning into a very forgettable season. The Dodgers were down 4-0, thanks to Hiroki Kuroda allowing first-inning homers to Alexei Ramirez and A.J. Pierzynski on his way to giving up nine hits and six runs (four earned) in 5.2 innings. (It should be noted that most of the last two innings fall under the category of “taking one for the team”, as mopup guys Lance Cormier and Ramon Troncoso each threw multiple innings yesterday.) With one out, the White Sox were threatening to add to the lead, having Gordon Beckham on first thanks to a Rafael Furcal error.

Pierre came up, and took a Kuroda meatball deep to right field. (The simple fact that Pierre was able to do that should tell you all you need to know about how ineffective Kuroda was today.) Andre Ethier went hard to the wall trying to come up with the ball, but was unable to, allowing Pierre to reach second. It was immediate from the moment it happened that Ether had injured himself, though while it initially appeared he’d hurt his shoulder, we later learned that it was a “right elbow contusion, lower right back contusion and sprained left big toe”. That’s three injuries for the price of one, apparently. Ethier stayed in for one more batter, a run-scoring single to right by Ramirez that Ethier clearly was hindered in getting to, before being replaced mid-inning by Tony Gwynn.

Pierre wasn’t done yet, however, apparently having decided he hadn’t caused enough damage to the Dodgers in his three years with the team. Having advanced to third on the Ramirez hit and standing firm while Adam Dunn walked, he took off for home on a Paul Konerko sacrifice fly to center. 95% of the time, Pierre scores on that ball without breaking a sweat, but Matt Kemp‘s laser throw made it a tight play. Kemp’s throw was just ever so slightly to the first base side, so Rod Barajas shifted to grab the ball and dove back to the plate to try and tag Pierre. He was unable to do so in time, but came away with a fun parting gift – Pierre’s spikes in his right wrist. Barajas stayed in for Pierzynski to strike out, and was hit for by Dioner Navarro in the next inning; while x-rays came back negative, he has a sprained right wrist and is “day to day”.

This was a day that had actually started with some optimism, as Furcal had returned and Casey Blake & Blake Hawksworth are each expected to within the next week. The Dodgers were one game away from finally winning a series in an AL park. Now? Now, they were just a Russ Mitchell last-second homer away from being swept, and have to quickly make some roster decisions. They’ve been playing shorthanded all weekend, with the combination of the extra hitter in the lineup at DH and the “active but unavailable” status of Aaron Miles & Juan Uribe before today meaning that the team had only two healthy bench players for the first two games of the series. That became three today when Furcal took Uribe’s spot, but while you can get away with that when you’re in the AL and not hitting for your pitchers, that’s not going to fly when they head back to the NL with a series in Houston tomorrow.

Uribe’s trip to the DL was the 15th disabling injury the Dodgers have had this season in less than two months, and it’s hard to believe that we won’t see at least one more in the next 24 hours, between the uncertain statuses of Miles, Ethier, and Barajas. Since the 40-man roster is pretty sparse at this point, the AAA call-ups would seem pretty straight forward: Ivan DeJesus for Miles, Jamie Hoffmann for Ethier, and A.J. Ellis for Barajas. My total speculative guess? Ethier and Barajas go to the DL, Miles does not. Barajas probably gets less leeway than Ethier does, because if he is unavailable for even a few days, you either have to call up Ellis or be comfortable with Mitchell as your backup catcher.

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Let’s not totally ignore some bright spots: As I joked on Twitter, James Loney is slowly moving into “not our biggest problem” territory, after reaching base three times today. That doesn’t mean that he’s suddenly become all that good or that I’ve changed my overall opinion on him, but he has doubled in three straight games and hit in 8 of 9 & 15 of 18, raising his line from an unbelievably bad .167/.191/.211 on April 23 to a more realistically poor line of .240/.283/.292 after today. With the rest of the injury and production issues mounting, and Loney still contributing his usual solid defense, he’s no longer the biggest concern. That said, he can’t afford any mental mistakes, like the one he made today by being doubled off of first on a Barajas pop-up caught by the second baseman in short right field.

In addition, Jerry Sands followed up his first career homer on Saturday with his first career four-hit game today. His OBP is now up to .330, which is far from great, yet still miles better than anyone on this team not named Kemp, Ethier, or Carroll. In May alone, his line is .289/.407/.467, which is a great sign. Like the Saturday homer, the first three hits were pulled to left field, which could be a sign that he’s becoming more comfortable. It’s also a good sign that the first two of those hits came against righty Edwin Jackson, as recent comments from Don Mattingly had me worried that Sands would be in a strict lefty/righty platoon with Jay Gibbons.

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Yes, Furcal went 0-5 with three strikeouts and an error, far from the spark we’d all hoped for. Still, it reminded me that we’ve seen this before. Last season, he missed nearly a month starting in April due to injury, returning in late May. In his first game back on May 25, the Dodgers went into Chicago and lost 3-0 to the Cubs. Furcal went 0-4 with two strikeouts and two errors that day in his return to the lineup.

Sound familiar at all? The good news is that after that day, Furcal hit .319/.381/.518 through May, June, and July, before being injured again in early August. He’ll need to have another run like that if this team is going to stay afloat.

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Bullet dodged: Ken Rosenthal reminds us that it could still be worse, passing along the news that Scott Podsednik signed a minor-league deal with the Phillies today. Frankly, I was shocked that Ned Colletti didn’t jump on him as soon as he was cut by Toronto a few weeks ago, and the timing here is key, particularly if Ethier is out for any significant period of time. Hey, remember when Podsednik turned down his half of a team option this winter? Yeah, me neither.

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(Update) I meant to add this originally, but there was good news from Albuquerque today as well. John Ely throw a complete game three-hitter today, needing 107 pitches to beat Reno. He struck out seven and walked just one. Christopher Jackson has the full story.