Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley Are Regressing (Updated)
May 4, 2011 at 6:46 am | Posted in Brad Penny, Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Jonathan Broxton | 32 Comments
One year ago today, Clayton Kershaw turned in the worst start of his young career, allowing seven earned runs while lasting only 1.1 innings against the Brewers. After a string of good starts to start the season (not allowing more than 3 ER in any, though with an admittedly troubling walk rate), the Milwaukee debacle alone pushed his ERA from 3.07 to 4.99, showing just how unreliable such stats can be early in the season. As I said at the time, I felt any worry was much ado about nothing, based on Kershaw’s history – at 21 in 2009, he’d compiled 4.2 bWAR, right in between C.C. Sabathia and Josh Beckett. Even the best starters have a rough game from time to time, and the decimated state of the Dodger rotation (at the time featuring Charlie Haeger, Carlos Monasterios, and a pre-mania John Ely) contributed more to the panic over Kershaw’s bad start than anything.
At the same time, Chad Billingsley was doing his best to shake off the worry over the poor end to his 2009 season. He gave up six earned runs in his second start and didn’t make it out of the fourth in his third, leading me to jokingly ask what to do with him, though his next two starts were much better, going six innings with two earned runs each time. (See “And That’s Why You Stick With Chad Billingsley” to relive it all.) There was absolutely concern after the second half of 2009, though he’d ended that year with two promising starts, and his 2007-09 added up to the 35th most pitching bWAR, even despite the lousy conclusion to 2009.
Meanwhile in St. Louis, 32-year-old Brad Penny was off to a surprisingly decent start, this after getting cut loose by the Dodgers after an awful and injury-plagued 2008 and getting released by the Red Sox in August of 2009. Having pitched three of his five games against the noted offensive powerhouses of Houston, Arizona, and San Francisco, Penny’s ERA was a sparkling 1.56, a number which everyone knew couldn’t last as he’d struck out just 18 in 34.2 innings. It didn’t; Penny allowed 14 earned runs over 21 innings in just four more starts before missing the remainder of the season due to injury. The ERA which had looked so good weeks earlier ended up being 6.11.
This is where we stood one year ago today, on May 4, 2010, when Sports Illustrated‘s Jon Heyman dropped a tweet which will surely haunt him forever:
kershaw may be regressing faster than billingsley. not sure. close competition. #howcanbradpennybebetterthanboth?
At the time, it seemed comical. A national baseball writer for a respected publication was claiming that two former first round picks, each in their early-to-mid twenties with a track record of success, were each worse than an overweight 32-year-old on his fourth team in three years? I’ll admit that we all had some worries about Billingsley, though I was confident he’d work through them – he has – but to question Kershaw at the time based on one lousy start was crazy. It’s now gone from comical to ludicrous, if you look at what the threesome have done since then.
Clayton Kershaw, May 5, 2010 – May 5, 2011
GS: 33 IP: 219.0 Line against: .216/.282/.317 K/9: 9.9 BB/9: 3.3 K/BB: 3.1
Chad Billingsley, May 5, 2010 – May 5, 2011
GS: 32 IP: 201.0 Line against: .234/.306/.332 K/9: 9.1 BB/9: 3.5 K/BB: 2.6
Brad Penny, May 5, 2010 – May 5, 2011
GS: 11 IP: 62.1 Line against: .286/.344/.457 K/9: 6.0 BB/9: 2.9 K/BB: 2.0
Yeah, I think I’m pretty okay with the regressing Kershaw and Billingsley, wouldn’t you say?
******
No, I’m not ignoring another Jonathan Broxton breakdown last night. (To be honest, I only saw the first four innings of the game.) But from what I’m reading, this only seems to validate the point I’ve been making all along: whether he’s willing to admit it or not, there’s something physically wrong with him, particularly if he really was only throwing 89-93 last night. Whether that’s an arm injury, bad mechanics, or poor conditioning (a point I’ll entertain while reminding that he’s always been a large guy), I can’t say. But it does point to a real, tangible issue, not the assaults on his manhood or emotional state some amateur psychiatrists like to call out. That’s really the only point I’ve ever tried to make, because I’ve never been blind to the fact that he’s not the same guy; just that 3+ years of excellent work doesn’t disappear so easily without a reason. And on the topic of “reasons”, why isn’t Joe Torre’s abusive usage included in every story mentioning Broxton’s troubles?
Update: Per Ken Gurnick, Broxton has been shut down with elbow pain. It’s very odd to consider this as being good news, but it is.
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Most don’t mention Torre because they see him as a great manager who couldn’t possibly be to blame for a fatty’s problems. Basically, being blessed with great teams and thus having rings makes you immune to criticism.
Comment by Gregory Zakwin— May 4, 2011 #
I agree, I always hated torre, I thought he was a terrible manager. I agree anyone could have won championships with the talen those yankee teams had.
Comment by format— May 4, 2011 #
Regardless of what Broxton’s actual problem(s) is(are) — we don’t know, and could argue about it endlessly — the results aren’t good. Can somebody please get Mattingly on the Courtesy White Phone and ask him to stop giving games away by repeatedly trotting Troubled Jonathan as “closer.” These days, I’d rather see the Crazy Aztec, Padilla, coming out in the ninth. Let Broxton work it out somewhere else.
Comment by Penguin's Pornstache— May 4, 2011 #
I agree that he shouldn’t be in the 9th. But man, the other options aren’t appealing. Kuo can’t be counted on. Padilla hasn’t shown much and is just off surgery. Jansen’s in the minors. Cormier’s useless. Guerrier and MacDougal aren’t really closer types. Yikes.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 4, 2011 #
Outside of a few notable exceptions, this team is full of “yikes” this year. As far as the bullpen goes, I would just like to see Mattingly go to a more committee approach, until somebody rises to the role of closer.
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I must say that, for the most part, I’ve been fairly pleased with the Dodgers’ new manager. He was dealt a difficult hand.
Comment by Penguin's Pornstache— May 4, 2011 #
Penguin, I couldn’t agree more. I feel like Donnie Ballgame is doing everything right that frustrated the hell out of us about Torre the last few years. He’s substituting for defense late and winning games (Gwynn’s catch the other night for one example), he’s not doing too much tinkering with the lineup, he’s giving Sands a chance to learn at the Big League level (as opposed to calling him up to pinch hit for two weeks before shipping him back to the ABQ) and my favorite Mags moment of the year so far — watching him walk out to the mound in the ninth a few weeks ago when Kershaw was trying to finish off a complete game, then slapping CK on the ass and walking back to the dugout. Even though Kershaw couldn’t get it done (they did win the game in extras) that was the moment where I knew, without a doubt, Mags was the right guy for the job.
Comment by Vegas Blue— May 4, 2011 #
You’re right, but my question is, why is Jansen in the minors? As I believe you pointed out a few days ago, Jansen had dramatically improved from his couple of disasters at the beginning of the season. Seems to me that he would be way better on the big league roster than a guy whose only stated purpose is “mop up duty”.
Comment by Steve— May 4, 2011 #
Sad thing is, I actually really like this team. Minus Aaron Miles and James Loney, the offense is promising. The starting pitching has been and will be great all season. We need some bullpen rescue….and fast.
Comment by Tripp— May 4, 2011 #
Johnny Brox is… broken. It was brutally obvious last night that even he knew something was wrong. I picked up on at least one unusual hitch in his windup where he appeared to pound the baseball into his glove in a “double clutch” move while in his windup motion on the 4th pitch during the eight straight balls he threw. By the second walk, the expression on his face had changed from confident to… embarrassed. It didn’t help that every single player on the Dodgers was trying to kill time so Hawksworth could warm up.
You can’t help but think Torre broke him last year — we all know he’s been a totally different pitcher since that Yankees series. I think for starters, Mags needs to stop bringing Brox in on back-to-back nights. Secondly, he ONLY comes in during the 9th if the Dodgers are ahead. Third, I think maybe letting another pitcher start the 9th, and get one out or maybe two, and then bring in Broxton to finish – like, baby steps until he’s back to form. That is, if he doesn’t end up on the disabled list after this last outing.
The bottom line is, collectively, the bullpen is going to cost this team 20-25 games this season, if not more. And right now, the offense isn’t helping either. Ugh.
Comment by Vegas Blue— May 4, 2011 #
20-25 games? No way. Seriously, not a chance. Our bullpen has been the worst in the bigs and we’re not on pace for that.
Comment by Bip— May 4, 2011 #
i was listening to the game last night and both monday and the other guy (i forgot his name) said broxton was acting like something was wrong, like he flat out knew he was in a lot of trouble.
Comment by Omer— May 4, 2011 #
I love how casually it’s mentioned how Guerrier is not an option to close – and I agree. It’s just another reminder of how stupid that 3 yr contract is. Thanks again, Ned.
Comment by Dale— May 4, 2011 #
Broxton needs an MRI on every inch of his body, starting from the neck and finishing at the toes. Maybe then they’ll discover some sort of injury.
Comment by The Dude Abides— May 4, 2011 #
I honestly believe Broxton is finished as a pitcher with the Dodgers. I think its possible he could regian his form with another team. I think he needs to find it with another team in another city. they need to just release him. the entire bullpen is just god awful.
Comment by format— May 4, 2011 #
I think it’s a little premature to say he’s “finished” as a Dodger. Clearly he’s not himself, and the stakes are a little too high to let him tinker around in the closer role. But I think he definitely still has a place on this club, and I don’t think his problems are beyond repair. We’ve seen what he can do; it would be a shame to just give up on him.
Comment by Paul— May 4, 2011 #
sorry but its just not working out for him here. did you hear the boos last night for him? everyone knows or suspects, his time with the team is running out.
Comment by format— May 4, 2011 #
Mostly boos from fans that don’t know a thing about the game or were drunk off the ass. If he is relieved of his “closer” role he maybe more forthcoming about a physical problem. I don’t see any reporting on a video analysis of his delivery comparing early 2010 to early 2011. If it is not physical or mechanical I don’t know how you explain loss of velocity with a psychological spin.
Comment by west coast ram— May 4, 2011 #
not psychological. he just sucks. he is finished with the dodgers. mark my words, he will be gone by next year.
Comment by format— May 4, 2011 #
format, I agree he’ll be gone next year. But “shredded elbow” (if that’s what it is) is a pretty good excuse for sucking, right?
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 4, 2011 #
Yeah, I heard the boos, and I don’t blame the crowd for getting on him (although, I don’t really understand what they’re hoping to accomplish through it; then again I don’t understand a lot of the things Dodger fans do.). I just don’t see that as a good enough reason to all out give up on him. It’s not exactly a perfect comparison, but Sandy Koufax had had thrown his glove and cleats in the trash at the end of the 1960 season. You know how that story ends.
Comment by Paul— May 4, 2011 #
If they can’t find anything wrong with him physically, then it could be psychological/emotional. While I agree that it’s not helpful for “amateur psychologists” to jump to conclusions, it also seems bizarre to dismiss the possibility, as though an emotional issue is simply too outrageous or silly to consider. People have emotional issues in the workplace all the time. But for some reason that fact carries a stigma among manly men as though it’s a shameful insult to even suggest. This attitude only serves to complicate the issue further. Sorry, but I find the anxiety and condescending dismissal around a potential emotional issue odd.
Comment by winnicott— May 4, 2011 #
One of his biggest problems is loss of velocity, how do you explain that as emotional distress? We are not talking about loss of focus or just inability to throw strikes, he has lost 4-8 mph off the fastball.
Comment by west coast ram— May 4, 2011 #
Just in: Broxton has been shut down with elbow pain.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 4, 2011 #
they need to give him a complete medical examination to rule out injuries. do you think he was hiding an unjury from the team?
Comment by format— May 4, 2011 #
He’s done it before, so why not do it again?
I have to say though, it was pretty embarrassing to see the cheering last night when Broxton was taken out. Not very classy, Los Angeles.
Comment by Tony Fernandez— May 4, 2011 #
How many times have seen a player hide an injury that was obvious to anyone with better vision that Helen Keller? Time after time after time they think they can play through it, and each time out it becomes more and more obvious. I’d bet cash money we’re going to find out it was something minor that he let fester into something far more serious.
I blame Broxton, management, and the ever-incompetent Conte for letting it get this far.
Comment by Bill Grabarkewitz— May 4, 2011 #
@ Bill, have you ever played sports at a level higher than HS? I’m not trying to put you down but almost every player has some physical issue that they try to play through. A guy that make it to the professional level has had so much wear and tear on their body that it is hard to determine what is just regular pain and what is an injury. That is why some guys are labeled as fragile because they complain about every body ache they have.
Comment by west coast ram— May 4, 2011 #
I’m guessing a minor injury lead to a mechanical change as he tried to pitch through the injury, and that mechanical change made the minor injury worse. So, IF they can fix the injury, he’ll ALSO have to regain his mechanics.
Comment by Dave— May 4, 2011 #
I’m waiting for the scores of premature diagnoses by amateur physicians: real or fake?
Comment by Tony Fernandez— May 4, 2011 #
[...] misinformed anecdote from Jon Heyman? Of course you are! Mike goes back one year to revisit Heyman’s ill fated tweet where he opined that Kershaw and Billingsley were quickly regressing. [...]
Pingback by Weekend Round-Up – 5/8/2011 | Fire Brand of the American League— May 8, 2011 #
An article written by a person who did no research. It’s funny Kershaw last year had an era of almost 5.00 in April and May. Currently his ERA through April and May is now 2.76. That is regressing how? His whip in April and May last year was over 1.50 and it currently is at 1.19 this year. Where is this so called regression? Please do more research before writing more articles, it will prevent you from looking stupid.
Comment by Matt— May 13, 2011 #
best comment ever.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 14, 2011 #