James Loney’s Total Eclipse of the Bat
May 7, 2011 at 4:25 pm | Posted in James Loney | 39 Comments
I could talk about another punchless Dodger loss, or how the team left the bases loaded three times – including in each of the first two innings against emergency starter Dillon Gee – or that Don Mattingly basically punted the game by putting two guys with sub-.300 OBPs (Aaron Miles & James Loney) at the top of the lineup, or that the bullpen faltered once again, or how Andre Ethier‘s hitting streak ended, but there’s only so much you can say about all that. This was a game we’ve seen so many times before, where a decent-or-better starting pitching performance was wasted by atrocious offense that is not becoming of a major league team.
So let’s ignore the game and focus on just how unintimidating Loney has been on this, his 27th birthday, more than five years since his major league debut. This isn’t the first time I’ve talked about this, nor do I mean to pick on him specifically. It’s just that even though he got two hits tonight, making for six over his last four games, and was actually hitting .343 in the eleven games leading up to tonight, his lack of power is bordering on the historic. I’m not even talking about the lack of homers, which we’ve been lamenting for years. I’m talking about the lack of extra-base hits, because seemingly a huge majority of the hits he has managed lately have been lucky or well-placed singles through the infield.
It turns out, it’s not just my perception. Loney’s 2011 is on pace to be the weakest of any first baseman in the last 60 years:
| Rk | Player | XBH | PA | Year | Age | H | 2B | HR | BB | SO | Pos | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dwain Anderson | 0 | 144 | 1973 | 25 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 33 | .121 | .232 | .121 | .353 | *6/58 |
| 2 | Pat Corrales | 0 | 135 | 1972 | 31 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 26 | .192 | .276 | .192 | .468 | *2 |
| 3 | Dave Nelson | 0 | 137 | 1969 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 26 | .203 | .259 | .203 | .463 | *4/79 |
| 4 | Larry Lintz | 1 | 183 | 1975 | 25 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 20 | .207 | .324 | .213 | .537 | *4/6 |
| 5 | Glenn Beckert | 1 | 184 | 1974 | 33 | 44 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 8 | .256 | .301 | .262 | .562 | *4/5 |
| 6 | Luis Gomez | 1 | 186 | 1974 | 22 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 16 | .208 | .261 | .214 | .475 | *6/4 |
| 7 | Larry Lintz | 1 | 141 | 1973 | 23 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 18 | .250 | .351 | .259 | .609 | *46 |
| 8 | Rich Morales | 1 | 132 | 1969 | 25 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 18 | .215 | .269 | .231 | .501 | *46/5 |
| 9 | Elio Chacon | 1 | 135 | 1960 | 23 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 23 | .181 | .271 | .190 | .460 | *4/9 |
| 10 | Merl Combs | 1 | 128 | 1950 | 30 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 16 | .245 | .384 | .255 | .639 | *6 |
| 11 | Al Lopez | 1 | 136 | 1947 | 38 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 | .262 | .311 | .270 | .581 | *2 |
| 12 | John Sullivan | 1 | 157 | 1947 | 26 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 14 | .256 | .361 | .271 | .632 | *6/4 |
| 13 | James Loney | 2 | 128 | 2011 | 27 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 17 | .217 | .250 | .250 | .500 | *3 |
The list you’re seeing there is of all non-pitchers since the 1947 integration who have had as many plate appearances as Loney did entering tonight, sorted by fewest extra-base hits. Loney had two hits in five plate appearances tonight that aren’t reflected here, but they were each singles, so it doesn’t really change the results.
What’s really enlightening here is to look at the position column, all the way to the right. Almost all of these hitless wonders were middle infielders from decades ago, at a position and time where a lack of power was accepted, with a few catchers thrown in for good measure. Worse, this is a list comprised almost entirely of players who never really had careers to speak of. You haven’t heard of Dwain Anderson, Elio Chacon, or Larry Lintz, right? The only one here who is notable in any way is Al Lopez, a fine catcher who made the Hall of Fame via the Veterans Committee, but whose entry on this list was the final season of his 19-year career, at age 38.
It gets worse. I didn’t include the full list above, but it actually goes out to 55 names, as there are dozens of others tied with Loney at two extra-base hits. You might think that by stretching it out that far, you’d end up with at least a few other first basemen. You’d be wrong. It’s almost entirely comprised of catchers, second basemen and shortstops, with the odd center fielder (like 39-year-old Brett Butler’s 1993, or 22-year-old Juan Pierre‘s 2000). In fact, the only other player on the list who even played a single inning at first base was Mike Fiore in 1970, split between the Red Sox and Royals. Fiore played his final MLB game at 27 two years later, which is exactly the age Loney turned today.
Let’s not stop there, though. We all know that this isn’t just six weeks of underwhelming production, but that he’s coming off a tough second half of 2010, too. From the start of last year’s second half on July 15 through the start of play today, Loney had 405 plate appearances and a line of .213/.274/.305, an OPS of .579. Using the same timeframe of 1947-present, here’s the list of seasons of at least 405 plate appearances by players who saw at least half of their time at first base, sorted by lowest OPS.
| Rk | Player | PA | Year | Age | Tm | G | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ed Kranepool | .566 | 405 | 1968 | 23 | NYM | 127 | 86 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 39 | .231 | .271 | .295 |
| 2 | Howie Schultz | .582 | 430 | 1947 | 24 | TOT | 116 | 90 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 70 | .223 | .263 | .319 |
| 3 | Dan Meyer | .591 | 477 | 1978 | 25 | SEA | 123 | 101 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 39 | .227 | .264 | .327 |
| 4 | Enos Cabell | .600 | 413 | 1981 | 31 | SFG | 96 | 101 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 47 | .255 | .274 | .326 |
| 5 | Pete Rose | .602 | 555 | 1983 | 42 | PHI | 151 | 121 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 52 | 28 | .245 | .316 | .286 |
| 6 | Enos Cabell | .608 | 484 | 1982 | 32 | DET | 125 | 121 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 48 | .261 | .284 | .323 |
| 7 | Pete Runnels | .608 | 536 | 1957 | 29 | WSH | 134 | 109 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 55 | 51 | .230 | .310 | .298 |
| 8 | Casey Kotchman | .616 | 457 | 2010 | 27 | SEA | 125 | 90 | 20 | 1 | 9 | 35 | 57 | .217 | .280 | .336 |
| 9 | Tommy McCraw | .617 | 437 | 1966 | 25 | CHW | 151 | 89 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 40 | .229 | .288 | .329 |
| 10 | Lee Thomas | .617 | 594 | 1963 | 27 | LAA | 149 | 116 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 53 | 82 | .220 | .301 | .316 |
Loney’s not listed there because his streak is over two seasons, but you’ll see that he’d slot nicely into the second-lowest OPS of the last 64 years by a first baseman. If I’d waited until baseball-reference had refreshed with tonight’s results, Loney would be first on this because the threshold would have been higher than 405 PA, and Kranepool wouldn’t appear. It’s sort of splitting hairs at that point, anyway.
Now, I get that the Dodgers don’t have a ton of other great options. I get that the numbers haven’t really been there from Jerry Sands, though I do think he’s looked better than the stats show. But this is a lack of production that hasn’t been seen from first base in decades, and it’s on the heels of several mediocre seasons, at least from the point of view of those who understand that RBI are useless. How much longer can the Dodgers really go without rectifying the situation? I’m not sure if that means recalling Trayvon Robinson to play left field with Sands at first, letting Tony Gwynn play left every day, giving Jamie Hoffmann or Trent Oeltjen a shot at left, or letting Sands and Jay Gibbons platoon at first, perhaps with a touch of Casey Blake when he’s healthy. None of the solutions are perfect. They can’t be. But they also simply can’t be worse than what we’re witnessing, and with a team that’s seeing its entire season be endangered by atrocious offense, something must be done. Something drastic, perhaps, because no team should have to have a first baseman this underpowered. Maybe they could let him use metal bats, like in college? Perhaps one of these BBCOR baseball bats would give him the boost he’s sorely lacking.
Happy birthday, James. I’m sorry it hasn’t worked out, I really am; but your present needs to be an all-expenses paid trip to one of the 59 beautiful MLB and AAA destinations that aren’t Dodger Stadium.
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they suck, they truly truly suck balls.
Comment by format— May 7, 2011 #
It’s all heartbreaking.
Comment by stacey— May 7, 2011 #
It has become laughable. Almost not worth getting upset when they lose.
Comment by Tripp— May 7, 2011 #
Wow I had no idea he was that bad. That’s almost sad. Very well done on the research. Let’s hope we don’t have to suffer Jerry Sands sitting on the bench in favor of Jay Gibbons EVER again!
Comment by Lasorda's Lair— May 7, 2011 #
The only thing really saving Loney’s job at this point is that Sands isn’t doing much better. Though Sands has more XBH’s and his approach at the plate looks better. To me the choice is clear, play Gwynn in left and move Sands to first. I’m a little concerned about how the defense at first will play out but I’m sure it will be a net gain with Gwynn in left.
Comment by Aaron— May 7, 2011 #
My off season desires to sign Beltre, Berkman, and Martin would have looked good about now.
S Furcal
L Ethier
R Beltre
L Berkman
R Kemp
L Paul/Hoffman
R Martin
Pitcher
R Carroll
boss apple sauce
Comment by Table— May 7, 2011 #
Just Berkman alone for $8Mil with Dre and Bison…………*cries*
Comment by DodgersKings323— May 7, 2011 #
Having Beltre, Berkman, and Martin would’ve been nice… but there’s no empirical proof that they would’ve been as effective as they’ve been had they signed with the Dodgers. They would be facing different pitchers, in different situations, also batting in a different spot in the batting order
Comment by dpwtv— May 8, 2011 #
This. Also, Martin has cooled off since his hot start, and somehow I doubt Berkman is keeping up his .400 BABIP all year.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 8, 2011 #
Right on.
I think its safe to say that Russell Martin probably only puts up those numbers playing for the Yankees, in that lineup/ballpark combo.
Berkman is a great story but you can’t tell me the guy who could barely move at the end of last season isn’t an injury or fatigue away from showing up again.
Comment by Mike G— May 9, 2011 #
Furcal is injured.
Comment by Steve— May 11, 2011 #
Yup, i was just thinking today “put your best players on the field!” Remember GA last year? Prospects not getting any chance, guys like Reed Johnson? Thames and Gwynn have shown more, find a way to get them in, wanted to look up stats on Loney too but i wanted to spare myself the horror and funny enough MSTI just did it for me :P
Like the LFP said, for throwback nights they should be wearing “Dukes” jerseys.
Even funnier to hear Lyons praising him, along with all the buffoonish things he says.
Comment by DodgersKings323— May 7, 2011 #
Lyons: “Jonathan Niese is a great pitcher that you’ve got to watch out for. He’ll get you on any given day.” (Something to this effect before Friday night’s game.
Niese career ERA you ask?
4.43 – of course it’s lower now that he pitched against these pathetic Dodgers.
Comment by Andrew— May 8, 2011 #
I don’t think the Dodgers can put together a title contender this year. They should trade Ethier, Furcal, and probably Kuroda (unless they can arrange for his 2012 return behind the scenes). Then play Dejesus, Sands, Robinson, Mitchell, Hoffman, Oeltjen, De La Rosa, Ely, and whomever they get via trade (3rd base hopefully).
Comment by Table— May 7, 2011 #
dude, great title
Comment by cp— May 7, 2011 #
Look what i find on TBLA
“Dodgers are tied with Houston (-34) for worst run differential in the NL.
They are on pace for a XWL of 62-100.
Potential is certainly there for 90 losses.
Kemp/Ethier will eventually cool off and you have to wonder just how better Loney/Uribe will get to compensate.
“
Comment by DodgersKings323— May 7, 2011 #
Can we just fast forward to 2012?
Comment by Wil— May 7, 2011 #
His BAbip is still by far lower than his career. Maybe it’s just the fact that he’s not hitting as hard, but I wouldn’t want to get rid of him until that goes up and he’s at least a little more valuable. Because we know once he gets traded he instantly gets better due to his home/road splits.
Comment by Tony Fernandez— May 7, 2011 #
Regarding his BABIP, I think we are starting to see it even out for him, because a lot of the weak grounders have found holes in the infield lately. But that’s not going to bring more power.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 8, 2011 #
Which is why I think his BAbip, while low, is not going to get up very high either. I know people like to use it as a stat purely indicative of luck, but we know that how hard you hit the ball has a lot to do with it. I’m not defending him, I’m just looking to get the best trade value for him.
Comment by Tony Fernandez— May 8, 2011 #
His BB% and ISO are extremely low too. Not just a BABIP issue.
Comment by Table— May 8, 2011 #
Yes I know. It’s definitely not all luck, but we should expect to see some improvement (as we have been seeing). Is it enough improvement to keep him around? Maybe not, but at least he would be worth more in a trade.
Comment by Tony Fernandez— May 9, 2011 #
Why am I NOT surprised that Enos Cabell is on that list TWICE? And Loney is worse. Bring up Robinson on June 1 and let Sands or Ethier move to first base. In the meantime, let Sands play every day regardless. I think he will bust out soon.
Comment by Bob Springer— May 7, 2011 #
Agree. I want Dre at first. Sands in left and Tray in center or right.
Comment by @BrocNessMonster— May 8, 2011 #
I think all that really has to be said is this:
Andruw Jones, 2008: .158/.256/.249 (238 PA)
James Loney, 2011: .226/.263/.258 (133 PA)
And that was after Loney went 2 for 4 with a walk tonight.
Comment by StolenMonkey86— May 7, 2011 #
That was a nice read really enjoyed it. I want to see Ethier play first. He is getting kinda old being 30 and all. It drives me crazy to see Aaron Miles name in the line up every f$ck&$@ Day. What gives, send the kid back to trip-A if he’s not going to start.(Ivan)
I love the dodgers but I hope we are done by July. Btw are first base coach does not look to happy. This is not the dodger way! Playing old never has-beens
Comment by Jaydavis— May 8, 2011 #
To everyone, if they post a video clip from Saturday night’s Isotopes game of how the Topes won, you must watch. Dee Gordon is the fastest baseball player alive. Still working on the defense and plate discipline, but oh my, it is an ending you have to see.
The text-only version:
http://www.examiner.com/baseball-in-albuquerque/gordon-races-home-to-give-isotopes-walkoff-win
I almost wanted to include “Dee Gordon went to plaid,” but I felt the reference would be lost on any youngsters reading.
Comment by Chris Jackson— May 8, 2011 #
Spaceballs? I’m 21, by the way.
Comment by Bip— May 8, 2011 #
But when will then be now?
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 8, 2011 #
Soon
Comment by Boys of Blue— May 8, 2011 #
Here’s some highlights from that game, including Dee scoring. Ho. Ly. Crap. That boy has a motor. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29eHAjDD2bU&feature=related
Comment by Dave— May 9, 2011 #
all you focus on are stats, stats, stats.
and you *do* choose to pick on him. constantly.
Comment by i hate you— May 8, 2011 #
Look James I know it kinda hurts to read this but..it is true. You are kind of a gangsta with the glove but your bat…you have to hit noticeably better than Aaron Miles to keep your spot at first, and you haven’t.
Corey Smith where art thou?
Comment by crushinator— May 8, 2011 #
Please elaborate and tell us what exactly value Loney provides that is beyond statistics.
How else do you suggest we measure his worth?
Comment by Mike G— May 9, 2011 #
[...] check out how he scored the winning run from first base in a 6-6 tie on Saturday night. (video link h/t commenter [...]
Pingback by Who Wants To See Dee Gordon Score The Winning Run From First On a Bunt? « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 9, 2011 #
Dude, did you steal this post topic from the Times’ blog or …. oh wait, they stole it from you. Are you flattered?
Comment by ngross— May 10, 2011 #
[...] to my meltdown, but since Loney still hasn’t had an extra-base hit since, I encourage you to take a look at this article from MSTI. Loney just turned 27 years old, typically that is the year that most players experience a breakout [...]
Pingback by For One Night Dodgers are Very Offensive & Rubby and Trayvon Stay Hot | Lasorda's Lair— May 11, 2011 #
[...] wouldn’t until a double in a 1-0 loss to Arizona on May 14 – but it was a start. Though by early May, I was pointing out that he was on pace to have a historically poor season for a first baseman, [...]
Pingback by The New & Improved James Loney « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 23, 2011 #
[...] was followed up by “James Loney’s Total Eclipse of the Bat” on May 7: The list you’re seeing there is of all non-pitchers since the 1947 integration who have had as [...]
Pingback by MSTI’s 2011 in Review: First Base « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— October 5, 2011 #