Let’s Go Dumpster Diving
May 23, 2011 at 11:51 am | Posted in Felipe Paulino, Jerry Blevins, Russell Branyan | 46 CommentsThe Dodgers find themselves in a tough spot today, as we kick off the last full week of May. The team is being completely crushed by injuries, to the point where seven of the thirteen active position players have seen some minor league time this year, either via rehab or assignment. That’s a number which could rise if any of the current injuries to Andre Ethier, Rod Barajas, or Aaron Miles require another move before the game today.
Yet while the injuries have been so many in number that the club has had trouble even filling out the bench in recent days, this is also a team that’s not necessarily in a position to go out and make a big deal to fill those holes externally. You can point to a variety of reasons for that, whether it’s payroll issues caused by the ownership mess, the totally valid point made by Ned Colletti that there’s just no good deals to be made this early in the season, or my clubhouse leader, “this isn’t a team that’s really good enough to bother trading quality prospects for immediate help anyway”.
Still, while I would love to avoid the prospect of another “James McDonald & Andrew Lambo for 18.2 innings of Octavio Dotel” debacle, things are becoming so dire that it’s not out of the question for the team to look into some low-visibility additions from amongst a few recently DFA’d veterans. Yes, that’s right – I’m suggesting dumpster diving. It’s not sexy, and it wouldn’t be a massive upgrade. But it wouldn’t cost much – a low-level non-prospect or perhaps even less – and for a team that badly needs to round out the bottom of the roster even before considering that they’re still carrying Lance Cormier and Juan Castro, it might be a good temporary solution. You might even luck out and back into the upside these guys once showed, as opposed to some of the “never-wases” we’re looking at now.
Here’s the three recent DFA’s that caught my eye…
Russell Branyan, 1B. Despite the protestations of DodgerTalk announcer Joe Block, whom I generally like, Branyan is without question a superior bat to James Loney. Between 2008-11, Loney has had 2134 plate appearances, with which he’s produced a line of .276/.336/.399 (.735 OPS) and 37 homers. In that same timeframe, Branyan has had 1154 plate appearances, just under half as many, and has put up .243/.334/.504 (.839 OPS) and 69 homers. Look past the batting average, which we know isn’t super important, and Branyan has the same on-base skills and is far more powerful. I believe Block has been taken in by the “RBI” narrative, which we know isn’t an accurate portrayal of skill.
But I wouldn’t be bringing Branyan in as the everyday first baseman, or even to replace Loney on the active roster. Branyan is 35 and a poor defender, and only three times has he received 400 plate appearances in a season. He’d be here because he can murder a baseball, and on a team with the weakest bench in baseball – remember, this is the club that had to throw Castro up with the bases loaded last week – that’s an incredibly valuable skill. Branyan’s role would be as a bench power bat who gets a start at first base once a week or so. We could easily make room by DFA-ing the failed current lefty bench power bat who gets a start once a week or so, Jay Gibbons. Any flexibility lost by not having Gibbons to play in the outfield some would be minimal as Tony Gwynn is barely playing right now anyway, and both Casey Blake and Russ Mitchell can spot out there as needed. Ideally, Trayvon Robinson comes up later in the season to push Jerry Sands to first base and Loney off the team, and then Sands and Branyan can be a nice lefty/righty duo.
Felipe Paulino, RHP. In just 19 games (14 starts) for Houston last year, Paulino generated 1.7 WAR at age 26, a decent enough season that just about everyone laughed when the Astros traded him to Colorado for Clint Barmes. Here’s one take from FanGraphs:
Houston will be mocked for this trade to various degrees. Not because they gave up a high-upside arm like Paulino, but because they did so to acquire a mediocre talent that might have been available at a lesser cost in a matter of weeks. As it stands, Colorado did well to get something in return for Barmes, and particularly well for the return to have upside.
Strictly a reliever this year, Paulino’s time in Colorado did not go well, even though he struck out slightly more and walked slightly less than he did in Houston the year before. That said, his stats are partially inflated by one horrendous outing in April in which he allowed the Cubs to score five times in one-third of an inning; his ERA without that game comes down to a far more palatable 4.46. His xFIP is actually just 3.36, as he got a little unlucky with homers in the early going. He’s still throwing 95 MPH heat, and his starting experience could make him an ideal longman out of the pen, a role this team desperately needs right now. Remember, the idea here isn’t “is this guy going to propel me to a championship?”, because Paulino certainly will not. It’s “is this guy better than the guy I currently have?” and a 27-year-old power arm with strikeout stuff who had trouble in Coors Field is absolutely a better bet than Lance Cormier, particularly when Paulino can go multiple innings if needed. The corresponding move would be obvious: DFA Cormier, then when he clears, you can send him to ABQ if you really care that much.
Jerry Blevins, LHP. When the news broke today that Oakland had DFA’d Blevins, half my Twitter feed lit up with calls of “ooh, I want that guy”. That’s not because he was so good this year – he wasn’t – but because he’s been good in previous years, and getting cut loose from a stacked Oakland bullpen isn’t exactly the death of your career. For most of the last three years, Blevins was a solid American League lefty-killer, holding opposing southpaws to OPS scores of .482, .719, and .598, and striking out just under a man per inning overall. This year, he’s been horrendous, as his walks are way up and he’s generating fewer swing-and-misses as he had before. I suppose now that I’ve looked into him a little more closely, I’m less interested in him than I would be in Branyan and Paulino, because there’s less of an obvious fit – Scott Elbert has gotten off to a very good start as the lone lefty in the bullpen. Still, with no return date for Hong-Chih Kuo, you could make the argument that it’s worth a look at Blevins to see if a move to the National League might cure some of what’s ailed him, hoping that the decent work of the last three years can return. To make room, Ramon Troncoso could be shipped back to ABQ, which is where he probably belongs right now.
The beauty here is, the cost would (presumably) be so low that if it doesn’t work out with these guys or others like them, there’s no harm in cutting them loose. The bottom of the roster looks to churn all year, and so you might as well make a low-risk play for some upside where you can. It’s not like there’s much danger of losing guys like Gibbons or Cormier through waivers, so they could still be available to return later if you wanted, though hopefully the return of injured players would make that less of an issue.
The Dodgers can’t, and shouldn’t, make big upgrades right now. They can look into minor upside plays, if the cost and situation are right. In these cases, they might just be.
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I’m not even really sure what the point of dumpster diving is at this point. A .500 season? It really seems to me 81-81 is out of reach given the realities of injuries times ability.
Comment by Rob McMillin— May 23, 2011 #
That’s exactly the conundrum. I do NOT want to see them giving up good prospects for veterans at the deadline, but some consideration must be paid to trying to at least be competitive for the paying customers this year. If you can get some boost for no cost, why not?
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 23, 2011 #
For me, there’s also some psychic benefit in the team floundering, even if it isn’t directly caused by McCourt ownership, and that is it is yet another factor suppressing attendance. I was happy to see the Dodgers win while the McCourts owned the team, but the divorce put a klieg light on their financial malfeasance. The proposed Fox TV deal made it very clear that they’re treating the team like a real estate asset, something to be leveraged for all it can be, for their personal extravagances. Also, the fact that Frank needs TV monies from a contract that starts in — what, 2013? 2014? — tells me he will not make good decisions going forward. Combined with the team’s notorious penuriousness when handing out signing bonuses in both the amateur draft and to foreign talent, and you have a sudden and vast dearth of young, good players coming from the minors. Frank must be evicted for the good of the team, and if it means some short-term pain in the win-loss record, so be it.
Comment by Rob McMillin— May 23, 2011 #
Yes, this season should be treated with the attitude of “if we make the playoffs its because the Rockies and Giants are also mediocre” and not “hey were good, we have a shot”. I like that Sands has been given a real look (something Colletti didn’t even do with Kemp and Ethier until it was painfully obvious). The lower level prospects in the organization are for the most part impressing and could make for a stacked farm system in a year or two, while Trayvon and Dee Gordon still have a lot of percieved (and hopefully real) value and should not under any circumstances be moved for a stopgap vet. If there ever was a year for dumpster diving, this is it, and if Ned leaves the prospects alone, the team goes into next season with a multi-layered and very interesting farm system.
Comment by Lex— May 23, 2011 #
good post Mike, I like this idea. lets scour the waiver wire, and see who we can pick up. im sure we could part with some low level prospects or something. im so desperate I say we do it. Branyan would be a decent bat off the bench with some pop. I think Paulino might be a better fit then Blevin though, since Elbert has looked pretty good.
Comment by format— May 23, 2011 #
I think we should sign Manny again. His suspension would be over for the final 15 games of the season. It would give the press something interesting to report on. He would be well rested. Then he could propel us into the playoffs. Well rested Furcal and Blake would be ready to contribute and we could probably go all the way.
Comment by DAVID S— May 23, 2011 #
Manny has retired.
Comment by Rob McMillin— May 23, 2011 #
Branyan and Paulino – Yes.
Why not call up Tray Robinson, like, yesterday?!?
Comment by phil_c— May 23, 2011 #
I don’t think Robinson is quite ready yet, and he’s better off playing every day in ABQ rather than playing occasionally as part of a platoon for the Dodgers.
Comment by nsxtasy— May 23, 2011 #
Right on about getting Robinson ABs in ABQ. For this move to make sense, Sands would have to take over at 1B for Loney. So I don’t see this happening until the All-Star break or so, and that’s provided Loney continues being Loney.
Still, isn’t this what should happen anyway? Loney is just about guaranteed to be a non-tender this offseason, and if the Dodgers are still mediocre through June, why not see what Robinson can do? His last 2+ years, per fangraphs:
2009 Dodgers (A+) (529pa) 306/375/500
2009 Dodgers (AA) (70pa) 246/358/439
2010 Desert Dogs (R) (92pa) 250/389/347
2010 Dodgers (AA) (523pa) 297/401/434
2011 Dodgers (AAA) (165pa) 287/352/527
It just might help sparse Dodger Stadium attendance a wee bit to have a Crenshaw HS product manning the outfield every night, right?
Comment by phil_c— May 23, 2011 #
Tray still needs to work on pitch recognition. He’s in the midst of a slump, got yesterday off. He’s 0-for-15 in his last four games. Tray said he’s usually a slow starter, with the walks (as well as the hits) picking up in the second half. So far he has looked good since moving to LF. This also provides Topes fans with the fun of watching Hoffmann play center. Nobody makes better catches on the hill.
Comment by Chris Jackson— May 23, 2011 #
Good post, Mike!
Comment by nsxtasy— May 23, 2011 #
One question – isn’t the power bat off the bench, the role that Thames was expected to fill? Just asking…
Comment by nsxtasy— May 23, 2011 #
Yes, but even if he was healthy and productive – which he hasn’t been – he’s a righty. You could still use Branyan as the lefty power bat to pair with him. And with Sands around, the idea of needing a Gibbons/Thames platoon in LF is no longer needed.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 23, 2011 #
Exactly the point, Branyan is simply a better version of what we wanted out of Gibbons.
I won’t get into another rant about why Gibbons is even on the team, but clearly there’s still remnants of last year’s “feel good story” stuck in management’s brain.
If we’re going to essentially waste roster spots with guys like Gibbons, Castro & Cormier, why not see if dumpster diving yields better results. The bar isn’t set too high.
Comment by Mike G— May 24, 2011 #
Not going to lie… this post makes me sad a bit. Not because it is not good. I love the post. I just hate to think of what has become of the Dodgers lately.
Comment by Goober— May 23, 2011 #
Two words: Milton Bradley.
Talk about full circle.
Comment by Omer— May 23, 2011 #
eric byrnes I’m sure is somewhere in that dumpster. Bring up every prospect and let them sink or swim and work on next year
Comment by Jaydavis— May 23, 2011 #
I tend to agree. This team is so boring and not really worth rooting for. Why not let some young kids that you want to see anyways get some playing time? The only issue would be it would get them that much closer to arbitration/free agency, but that is for the next owner and GM to worry about.
Comment by Hatcher— May 23, 2011 #
In the immortal words of Randolph Duke in “Trading Places”…”get back in there and SELL, SELL, SELL”
I fully endorse moves like getting Branyan, Blevins, Paulino and others like Crede, Milledge or players on the dung heaps of other teams.
However, Ned keeps saying he is hesitant to get in the market now because you overpay for what you get. Obviously, the Dodgers cannot afford to OVERPAY for minimal talent. Would Ned get in the market and give up a Dee Gordon to get a .629 OPS Russell Branyzn, a Rubby for Paulino? If Ned is pressured to go and get some players, he might go for some of the Mets players like Reyes, Beltran or Wright and OVERPAY with Trayvon, Rubby and Dee for a short term rental of any one or two of them
How about becoming sellers and letting some other team OVERPAY for the Dodger players. Since the team will go nowhere this year even if Ned got two or three great players (who are obviously not out there or affordable), sell off players any and all the players you can except Kemp, Kershaw, Billingsly and Sands – they have a valuable future with this team.
Players like Barajas, Carroll, Ethier, Blake, Furcal are nice players, but are replaceable players who may have more value in getting players or prospects who have an upside and may be attractive enough to another team to get them to OVERPAY.
Obviously, if Ned can unload some of the Dodger dreck in the process like Loney, Uribe, Gibbons for anything north of a bag of baseballs – go for it
Comment by Kirk Davenport— May 23, 2011 #
1000% agree that we should be sellers. Everyone on the active roster other than Kemp, Billingsley, Kershaw, and Jansen should be available. Obviously some (Ethier) would require much higher returns than others (Carroll, Loney, Blake, etc.)
But there’s just no chance it’ll happen. McCourt and Colletti know that they can’t afford to be seen as raising the white flag to the casual fan and losing the 2nd half ticket sales. They’ll stubbornly stick with it through the end, even if it means making awful prospect-for-veteran deals that we all despise.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 23, 2011 #
I read a interesting article a while back arguing that all GMs really care about is keeping their jobs which means they always have to appear to be making moves to help the team win, even if some of those moves sacrifice possible long-term success for potential short-term results. Such a mindset would obviously explain many of Colletti’s moves and which is why all of us are scared to our cores about what he’s going to do with the rest of this season. But it could backfire on him in this time. Whether McChode wants to admit it or not, the team is going to be sold, most likely later this year. Whether MLB seizes it and sells it, or ex-Mrs McChode forces it, the team is going to be sold (thank god). The money is gone and he has no other options (unless he declares bankruptcy but McChode would probably see that as a “cowardly” way out). So if Colletti is REALLY concerned about his job security, he may want to refrain from making any stupid moves that further decimate the farm system. Such actions would likely piss off the new owner and get Ned axed first thing.
Comment by MaxPower— May 23, 2011 #
Put me down as another vote for a fire sale. And frankly, I wouldn’t mind seeing Kemp on the block if the team can get good return for him. If I squint hard enough, that goes for Kershaw and Billingsley, too.
Comment by Rob McMillin— May 23, 2011 #
you want to keep jansen? really
Comment by GP— May 23, 2011 #
Jansen, the guy with a career mark of 14.2 K/9? Yeah, I want to keep that guy.
Comment by Dave— May 24, 2011 #
When you say that I think Jerry Sands will be another Konerko. We trade Sands and we say goodbye to 300-400 home runs. I’m not saying that is what will happen, but I know that is what will happen if we trade him.
Comment by Bob Springer— May 23, 2011 #
Is McCourt going to be involved with roster decisions come the trade deadline period? I mean who the hell is going to be in charge of these crucial decisions after MLB seizes countrol next week?
Comment by Steve— May 23, 2011 #
If MLB seizes the team, McChode is done. Once MLB starts paying your bills, you don’t have a say anymore. Colletti will still be GM and can make moves but MLB will ultimately be calling all the shots–just like with the Rangers recently.
Comment by MaxPower— May 23, 2011 #
@ MSTI,
I think one critical move that could put the Dodgers back on the right track is the trading of Ethier for either a 3B or CA prospect. Both positions are hard to fill at the major league level and I don’t think there is one in our immediate pipeline. Can you name a few top prospects from other organizations that are either blocked by current MLB players or that could be had for Ethier. With Ethier’s bad R/L splits I just don’t think that he will ever be the right guy to hit 3rd the the line-up but he will expect to be paid like one. With Robinson’s arrival next year and Sands looking okay for the future, if we could deal Ethier for that major league ready prospect we would be a high quality FA first baseman away from being division winners.
Comment by west coast ram— May 23, 2011 #
*…hit 3rd in the line up…
Comment by west coast ram— May 23, 2011 #
i could think of one….but it think it would be impossible to get him..yonder alonso of the reds…he plays left field right now because of a road block at first which is joey votto
Comment by GP— May 23, 2011 #
>> the trading of Ethier for either a 3B or CA prospect.
.
I give up. What’s “CA”?
Comment by nsxtasy— May 24, 2011 #
CA – catcher.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 24, 2011 #
Canadian. We’re looking for the next Russell Martin or Eric Gagne.
Comment by Dave— May 24, 2011 #
While we are all happy about the falling attendance at Dodger stadium, I’ve been watching attendance figures around the league and the numbers reported are about the same as ours. While we are dropping off from prior year numbers, it appears that the “through the gate” estimates at Dodger Stadium are about the same as the “tickets purchased” figures at other parks. We need more people that have already purchased tickets to trash them instead of giving them away and for a real effort by Angelenos to stay away.
Comment by west coast ram— May 23, 2011 #
This is not true. For one thing, the Dodgers average daily attendance is 36,361, good for ninth in MLB. For some reason Baseball-Reference doesn’t have this data for 2010, but for 2009 the Dodgers led baseball with an average game attendance of 46,440. Furthermore, Tom Verducci calculated that the Dodgers by themselves represented 63% of MLB’s attendance decline. So unless you expand on how you’re calculating attendance drops for everyone else, I don’t see how you get to an equivalence between “asses in seats at Dodger Stadium” vs. “tickets bought for non-Dodgers teams”.
Comment by Rob McMillin— May 23, 2011 #
I can tell you that, based on attending Dodger away games at three different parks this season, that I’ve observed a high number of no-shows (higher than years past). Even on nice-weather days/nights, there are a lot of empty seats (which is good news for those who want to sit in seats other than the ones they originally bought). It’s not just a Dodger Stadium phenomenon. And it hurts the bottom line of the home team, through losses in concession, parking, and other revenue.
.
You can find up-to-date figures for MLB paid attendance for 2010 and 2011 at http://espn.go.com/mlb/attendance However, I don’t know of anywhere that reports actual attendance through the gate, as distinguished from tickets paid.
Comment by nsxtasy— May 24, 2011 #
Just from watching games on TV and reading game stories they often quote the tickets sold figure and quickly indicate their guess at the amount in the house. I appears that the team is averaging about 25,000 in the stadium based solely at looking at all the empty seats. I don’t think that during the CWS series they ever announced more that 28,000 tickets sold. My only point was that even though attendance is way down for the Dodgers I think that we are just coming down to the level of most of the other teams.
Comment by west coast ram— May 24, 2011 #
The Most Interesting Baseball Player in the World is in ABQ to start his rehab assignment:
http://www.examiner.com/baseball-in-albuquerque/blake-ready-to-hit-ground-running-with-isotopes
None of the 40-man roster guys has an emergency bag packed in case of a call-up, so it appears there are no plans for Barajas/Ethier to get shelved.
Comment by Chris Jackson— May 23, 2011 #
I don’t get the trade-Ethier vibe as strongly as others. He’s one of the few players in this organization who can actually hit, and, his peak may still be ahead. I get that he has trouble against lefties, but most players have trouble against pitchers from both sides, so the fact that he can hit righties is a plus. And since you’re gonna see two to three times as many righties during the course of a season, the odds are in his favor. I also get that he is not the best right fielder in the game — so move him to left, or see if he can play first. Anyway, being one of the few hitters on this team, I’d be inclined to keep him for a few more years. The more mashers, the better.
Comment by Your 2011 McTurnips— May 23, 2011 #
He’s 29 years old, he’s most likely just on the wrong side of his peak (which means he still has very productive years ahead of him, but not as many as we’d hope), and it will cost a fortune to sign him past 2012. If I were GM, I’d let other teams know I’m listening, but it would take a massive return to pry him loose this year. Next year… It’d be a little easier.
Comment by Dave— May 24, 2011 #
wasn’t the reason they traded lambo was because he got caught using steroids
Comment by GP— May 23, 2011 #
Only if steroids smell like marijuana when you smoke ‘em.
Comment by Wil— May 23, 2011 #
I was all for Branyan in that role in the off-season, and I’d love to see the move now. It doesn’t take a whole lot to see you’d rather have him pinch hit with the bases loaded than Castro.
Comment by Mike G— May 24, 2011 #
[...] I said at the time (05/23/11): But I wouldn’t be bringing Branyan in as the everyday first baseman, or even to replace [...]
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[...] I said at the time (05/23/11): But I wouldn’t be bringing Branyan in as the everyday first baseman, or even to replace [...]
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