Who’s Going to Lose Their Job When Marcus Thames Returns?
May 31, 2011 at 11:19 am | Posted in Jay Gibbons, Jerry Sands, Marcus Thames, Tony Gwynn | 52 Comments
Over the weekend, the Dodgers got some good news as far as the continued recovery of their legions of injured, as both Vicente Padilla and Marcus Thames began their rehab stints in the minors. Padilla threw two scoreless innings for Rancho Cucamonga, striking out one and allowing a hit, and he was reportedly back at Dodger Stadium for Monday’s game. He’ll likely need another outing or two in the minors, but may not be far from returning. When he does, there’s no shortage of young relievers in the current bullpen who could be sent back down to the minors to clear up a spot. (My money’s on Ramon Troncoso.)
Thames homered in his Albuquerque debut on Sunday, then went 0-4 on Monday. He played left field both days, and considering he was able to play in the field on consecutive days to start his rehab, we can do a bit of speculation and infer that he’ll be ready to return soon. But unlike with Padilla, there’s no obvious answer to the question of how he gets put back on the roster. So the question must be asked: who is about to lose their job for Marcus Thames?
Let’s get the obvious right out of the way and say that as much as we might pray for it, I don’t think there’s any chance that Juan Castro goes. If he’s cut, the club will have only four active infielders for the three non-1B spots in Casey Blake, Jamey Carroll, Rafael Furcal, & Aaron Miles. All four are at least 33, and I don’t need to remind you of the various injury concerns there. It’s not a risk the club would – or should – take at this point, though we may finally get rid of Castro when Juan Uribe returns later in June.
That means – assuming that they won’t drop from 12 pitchers to 11, which is extremely unlikely – that when Thames returns, we’re saying goodbye to Tony Gwynn, Jay Gibbons… or Jerry Sands. Let’s look at how they’ve been used since May 3, the day that Gibbons returned from the DL to take Thames’ spot.
There’s no typo there – Gwynn has just two hits in May as we enter the last day of play, and has only 16 on the season. Though he’s gotten into more games than anyone, he’s started just three; he’s been all-but-exclusively a defensive replacement, and if not for the fact that he had to replace Matt Kemp against Florida last week after Kemp was ejected, he might not have even had the chance to get that second hit.
Gwynn’s lack of production and low-impact role would seem to make this a simple choice… except for one issue: he’s the only one capable of playing center field other than Kemp, and he’s the only plus glove in what is generally a below-average defensive group. Sands and Ethier are average fielders on their best days, and Gibbons and Thames are really designated hitters who have been handed gloves. If Gwynn is gone, what happens if Kemp needs a day off or suffers a minor injury? Do we really want Thames or Gibbons out there in the 9th inning of a tight game when defense is crucial? Were you that entertained by Sands’ emergency appearance in center recently that we should make it a more regular thing?
So that leaves us with Gibbons or Sands… and here’s the part I don’t think you’re going to like. I think it’s going to be Sands heading back to the minors.* I don’t like it any more than you do, but just look at how the pieces are falling into place. (My arguments here are just how I imagine the team might think, not necessarily how I’d look at it, of course.)
*unless, of course, another injury – real or imagined – pops up in the next few days.
- Thames is a righty power bat who can kind of sort of play left field & first base, as is Sands. If Gwynn is really just the defense guy, I can easily see Don Mattingly preferring a lefty/righty duo for this role in Gibbons and Thames, rather than two righties in Sands and Thames.
- Sands has been good – dig that .371 May OBP – but you can’t argue he’s been great. This isn’t Russell Martin coming up and wowing in 2006; this is a guy who is hitting .221 with two homers. (This is where you chime in and note that Sands has shown much improvement since arriving and is tied with Kemp for the highest May OPS, at .784. I get it, and I agree. Just playing devil’s advocate here.)
- Mattingly seems to like Gibbons, who has started nine of the last ten games (partially, I will admit, because Ethier’s injury opened up more playing time last weekend.) Gibbons hasn’t done much to repay that faith with indifferent offense and questionable defense.
- The Dodgers have a long-established history of wanting to keep as many players under control as possible. Unless a veteran has been so bad that he’s just impossible to hang on to (I’m looking at you, Lance Cormier), they’ll usually wait as long as possible before dropping the DFA hammer. Sands has options. Gibbons does not.
- With James Loney showing signs of life in recent days – the Dodgers having shown no inclination to dump him anyway – and Casey Blake now available to be a RH 1B on some days (along with Thames), there’s less of a need for Sands to be available to play first base.
I don’t like to think it either, but there’s plenty of reason to be worried that Gibbons sticks and Sands doesn’t when Thames returns, as crazy as it may sound to send down one of the team’s top offensive performers. To be honest, I don’t think the Dodgers really want to send out either, but they’re also not going to not activate Thames. So unless you think that they’ll really go down to 11 pitchers, risk cutting Castro and have just one backup infielder, or cut Gwynn and risk not having a backup center fielder, this is the choice you’re left with – unless you’re a true believer in the ‘phantom injury.’ (Hey, maybe Gibbons is still having eye issues?)
Let’s hear your opinion in the comments and the poll below.
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I agree with you Mike, I think its sands that gets sent down. no way they get rid of gwynn, they need his defense in the late innings. and with Gibbons showing some life the last few games at the plate. it wouldnt be a bad thing though. I really like Sands, his numbers are good this month, but he still hasnt shown consistency yet. I think maybe some more seasoning would be good for him, and they could call him back up again soon, because im sure someone will get hurt again, and another spot will open.
Comment by format— May 31, 2011 #
First of all, purely on merit and recent performance, I would send Elbert down instead of Troncoso.
As much as I hate to admit it, Thames is the basic direct replacement for Sands, although Jerry plays much better defense. Gibbons probably gets to stick just by virtue of being lefty, and Gwynn will probably stay, unfortunately, because he is our best defensive upgrade when Thames comes out in later innings. Loney’s recent revival probably cost Jerry a longer stay, because I don’t think anyone wants to consider the possibility of Thames playing first base. Also, Gibbons could spell Loney against a lefty, because Gibbons has shown the ability to hit lefties.
But, yes, if there were any way to get rid of Castro first, then I’d vote for that.
Comment by SamAdams— May 31, 2011 #
I know Elbert didn’t get either guy he faced out yesterday, but in 7 appearances he’s allowed 2 hits, 2 walks, 0 r, 5 K. That’s fine by me.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 31, 2011 #
yeah other than last night, Elbert has been very good. ive been very impressed with him.
Comment by format— May 31, 2011 #
And there’s always the possibility that Ned will package Sands and someone else for a sore-armed backup catcher or another retied — er, “veteran” infielder.
Comment by Bill Grabarkewitz— May 31, 2011 #
STOP!!!
I think of Sands and Konerko once a day as it is.
Comment by Bob Springer— May 31, 2011 #
What are the odds that they just DFA Thames?
Comment by Rich— May 31, 2011 #
Just about zero, I would think.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 31, 2011 #
Not that there isn’t merit to it.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— May 31, 2011 #
I think they’d rather have Thames platooning than Sands platooning. I think Sands would have kept the everyday job, but he has struggled at times. He’s our 3rd best OF easily, but the Dodgers just dont get it
Comment by Joey E.— May 31, 2011 #
This was Ned’s original design for LF at the start of the season, and it’s the first time we’ll see it this season. Sands going back to AAA isn’t the worst thing in the world. He isn’t forcing a DFA and could use some time working on pitch selection. Your point about Martin in ’06 is dead on. It’s kind of a “what ever” season anyway.
Comment by Rich— May 31, 2011 #
The fact that it’s a “whatever season” is all the more reason to let Sands learn against major leaguers.
Comment by Gregory Zakwin— May 31, 2011 #
this is such a joke we’re even talking about names like Marcus Thames, Jay Gibbons and Jr. I’m sorry, but this shite makes me sick.
In Ned We Trust
Comment by jaydavis— May 31, 2011 #
I’d send Castro down and play with 8 when Kemp needs a rest.
Comment by Scott— May 31, 2011 #
+ 1
Comment by Gregory Zakwin— May 31, 2011 #
this would probably give the Dodgers their best chance to win…which obviously means they wont do it.
Comment by crushinator— May 31, 2011 #
I think the most powerful point is #4. Ned has a history of not giving up players and Sands has options.
That being said for me this isn’t even a close call. In terms of Sands and Gibbons Sands wins in every offensive and defensive metric. And I’m not giving Gibbons bonus points for being a veteran from a horrible (Orioles) team. Sands is better now with plenty of upside. The Gibbons experiment has been nice but it’s time to cut bait. He’s had plenty of time to win the job outright and hasn’t.
If you prefer Gibbons of Thames then DFA Thames. I’m ok with that. But Sands gains nothing by going back to AAA and Gibbons is not the 5th best option for this team.
Comment by Warren— May 31, 2011 #
Who I want to get shipped out: Gwynn.
Who I think will get shipped out: Sands.
I actually wouldn’t mind seeing Castro get shipped out and play with only one backup infielder, but that just postpones the decision on which outfielder to cut until Uribe gets back.
Comment by nsxtasy— May 31, 2011 #
I think it will be Sands mostly because he has options, but it might also be a little because in his last 4 games, he’s 1 for 12 with 1 walk and 6 strikeouts.
Comment by Bip— May 31, 2011 #
Sending down Sands is a no lose proposition. The kid’s kept his head above water, and been very good from time to time. He’ll be better for the experience, and is not the ‘head case’ type that will have trouble with the demotion.
Thames/Gibbons being Ned and Donnie’s original plan *should* have a chance to see daylight. If they do well, great. If they play like 2 guys who should not have jobs in baseball, so much the better for Ned’s resume for the new owner[s].
Comment by Dale— May 31, 2011 #
okay so assuming sands does get sent down and tears up AAA again how long do they keep him down if everybody keeps performing the way they have?
Comment by matthew— May 31, 2011 #
For the rest of the year and Loney will play 1B for the rest of the year, that’s just the way it’s going down on this backwards team, watch.
Comment by DodgersKings323— May 31, 2011 #
“okay so assuming sands does get sent down and tears up AAA again how long do they keep him down if everybody keeps performing the way they have?”
Well if everybody keeps performing like they have—then he’ll be back real soon. Because everybody has been on the DL. So I expect Sand back within 2 weeks.
Comment by DAVID S— May 31, 2011 #
Sands is our 3rd best OF. The choice should be so simple…
Comment by Harold— May 31, 2011 #
I don’t think that it is a bad thing to send Sands back down. If you can’t commit to playing him 5 days a week (which I could), then he is better off in AAA for the full season. If he has a great season he will be back in September and have much expectations hanging on him next spring.
Comment by west coast ram— May 31, 2011 #
My opinion is sending sands down and teaching him 3rd base. He has a cannon of an arm, and we are going to need a 3rd baseman at yrs end. Easy cheap fix, but I don’t know if he is capable
Comment by chris s— May 31, 2011 #
They tried that already and didn’t like the results.
Comment by Gregory Zakwin— May 31, 2011 #
3b easy to learn just takes practice practice practice. This kid is a stud. Quick feet and reaction he has should not be a problem
Comment by Jaydavis— June 1, 2011 #
To learn, maybe it’s easy, but to man that position at the major league level? That’s asking a lot.
Comment by Blake— June 1, 2011 #
yeah, maybe in, like, little league. I mean if 3b was so easy to learn don’t you think the Dodgers would’ve already converted some other hard hitting position player into a 3b in anticipation of Blake’s last year…or even for this year? We already have an abundance of outfielders right? Lets just convert Kemp to 3b. Hes got a canon plus we already know he can hit. Maybe Thames should work on this 3b skills to increase his overall value.
Comment by crushinator— June 1, 2011 #
No, not little league, college. I picked up in college. Kemp playing 3b you don’t have to be a Dick.
Comment by Jaydavis— June 1, 2011 #
I’d like to see Gibbons go down to AAA, continue working on his power swing and his vision on a nightly basis, and forget the whole lefty/righty platoon idea. We already have two mainstay lefties in the lineup, and I don’t really see the point of overemphasizing the whole L/R split, especially since Sands can play first to spell Loney on a Lefty night, and Gibbons somehow hits lefties better than righties thus far in the season.
Comment by SFDodgerFan— May 31, 2011 #
who needs to get sent down of dfa’d….troncoso
enough said
Comment by GP— May 31, 2011 #
There are two problems with that idea. First, we need a seven-man bullpen, so sending down a reliever in order to keep an outfielder won’t work. Second, Troncoso has been virtually perfect in this, his second stint with the Dodgers this season. Yes, he was awful in his two games April 16-19 before he got sent down to Albuquerque, but in the four games since he was called up again (May 19-28) he has pitched six innings and allowed zero runs, four hits, and two walks.
Comment by nsxtasy— June 1, 2011 #
Tron was also fairly terrible in Albuquerque. (Chris Jackson, are you around? Can you back me up?) And Donnie seems to be comfortable leaving Rubby in for multiple innnings, and Padilla is about to come back and can also pitch multiple innings. A 6 man bullpen MIGHT be an option, but you would need to send out one more pitcher when Padilla is ready. I’d bet Lindblom.
Comment by Dave— June 1, 2011 #
Troncoso was not terrible, as long as you didn’t push him to do more than one inning. Then he’d be awful. Though amid the blur of bad relief pitching memories, I’m sure he had one or two outings where he had nothing from the get-go.
Comment by Chris Jackson— June 1, 2011 #
I hate that Gibbons and Thames haven’t been bad enough to clearly say one needs to be DFA’d, and Sands hasn’t been good enough that sending him down in unconscionable, but most of all that because of our front office we still are sending down the more valuable player to avoid losing the less valuable players.
Comment by Bip— May 31, 2011 #
Gibbons has most definitely been bad enough to clearly be a DFA….and Thames is arguably right there,
Comment by Mike G— June 1, 2011 #
Gibbons started out the season slow, but in his last ten games, he is hitting .313 (10 for 32) with a home run.
Comment by nsxtasy— June 1, 2011 #
Thames hasn’t had enough of a chance. For a washed up bench player on the Dodgers, Gibbons really hasn’t been that bad offensively. The main reason I DFA Gibbons is defense.
Comment by Bip— June 2, 2011 #
While looking for confirmation of the sad fact that Gibbons is not nearly the worst hitter on this team, I discovered the sadder fact that only 4 players on this team have an OPS above .700, including Blake and his 87 PA. (Sands has been flirting with the .700 mark.) So so sad…
Comment by Bip— June 2, 2011 #
Sands should be playing every day. I would DFA Gibbons in one heartbeat.
Comment by Bob Springer— May 31, 2011 #
Sands or not Gibbons should be DFA, and should have a long time ago…how big of a sample size do they need?
Comment by Mike G— June 1, 2011 #
Gibbons is the worst defensive outfielder I’ve ever seen. Worse than Aubrey Huff. My vote was that someone else would go on the disabled list. But what should really happen is a Gibbons DFA. Sands seems to be the type of talented and cerebral player who will make adjustments at every level and not get too down on himself when he struggles. He should stay with the big club and play every day.
Comment by The Dude Abides— June 1, 2011 #
It shouldn’t even be a question, Gibbons should be gone. The sooner the Dodgers get over whatever their infatuation is with the guy, the better. What value at all aside from being left-handed does Gibbons provide the team? Little to none. The feel-good couple of weeks from Gibbons last season are long gone, yet the Dodgers desperately cling to them.
The time to send down Sands was a month ago, when he looked uncomfortable at the plate…not now when he’s arguably the 3rd most productive guy in the lineup and one of the only run producers in an offense that struggles to score.
What would be the point in sticking with Sands so long only to send him down now? That ship has sailed, and there’s no reason to demoralize one of your top guys by sending him down for a player who’s clearly inferior to anyone with a set of 2 eyes.
I’d really like to see whatever photos of Colletti & Mattingly that Gibbons is using for blackmail.
Comment by Mike G— June 1, 2011 #
Do you REALLY want to see that foto?…
Comment by SFDodgerFan— June 1, 2011 #
good call. but you know he has one.
Comment by Mike G— June 1, 2011 #
As much as I hate to admit it Sands is the most likely candidate. There is a long history of Dodgers not playing young guys because veterans need a roster spot. Off the top of my head I can think of Tony Abreu, Blake Dewitt, and Xavier Paul. You could argue that they weren’t big league material, but they certainly could not have played any worse than the guys they all got sent down for.
Comment by PDXBlue— June 1, 2011 #
Blake Dewitt got the starting day 3rd base job straight from AA in 08 and played 117 games that year so he may not be the best example but I agree with you 100% and the veteran preference sadly seems to have been passed from Torre to Mattingly.
Comment by Mike G— June 1, 2011 #
…and it took injuries to a 15 year veteran (Nomar) and a busted prospect (LaRoach) to get the job. Let’s not make it out like DeWitt was a jewel noticed by the Dodger brass. It was an emergency fill that I’m sure Ned would have loved to replace with some schumk like Miles.
Comment by west coast ram— June 2, 2011 #
Gotta agree with the consensus. Sands needs regular playing time and going to Albuquerque makes more sense than getting 10-15 abs per week in LA. I would DFA Gwynn, but to only make room for Hoffman, who is a better all around player. Not exactly enamored of the idea of Gibbons and Thames in left, but it could be worse – just can’t imagine it.
I just hope that the wonks are right and we are sellers at the break. Both Kuroda and Garland have value and Ethier’s value will never be higher. As for the rest (Furcal, Blake, Broxton, Loney, etc….) get what we can and start bringing up the kids by August. I am sure Robinson, Ames, Tolleson, Webster and Miller will be ready and I would like to see what Oeltjen, IDJ and AJ can do with some extended playing time.
Comment by grabarkewitz— June 2, 2011 #
[...] May was so bad that by the end of of the month, when we were wondering who might get DFA’d to make room for a returning Thames, the only reason it seemed worthwhile to keep Gwynn around was the lack of another option to help [...]
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