2011 May « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness

Dodgers Suffer Four Losses In One Day

May 4, 2011 at 2:50 pm | Posted in Andre Ethier, Jonathan Broxton, Juan Uribe | 20 Comments

Yes, the Dodgers lost 5-1 to the Cubs today in what was basically an absolute snoozefest of a day game. That’s not too much of a surprise, because this was a getaway day lineup that featured Aaron Miles, Russ Mitchell, Dioner Navarro, Jay Gibbons, Tony Gwynn, and half of Juan Uribe. Ted Lilly gave up three homers – and the man always gives up homers, as this was the 40th time in his career he allowed more than one in a game – and the offense was predictably punchless, getting just six hits. (Two of which came off the bat of Miles, who’s now hitting a respectable .260 but continues to be the definition of an “empty” average.) If there’s any bright side, it’s that the embattled bullpen managed to get through the final third of the game without allowing any further damage in their low-pressure innings; Hong-Chih Kuo, Mike MacDougal, and Vicente Padilla all contributed one scoreless inning.

But no one really cares about the AAA squad dropping a day game the day before a day off, right? Of course not. Everyone’s going to be talking about the other three losses the Dodgers suffered today:

Early this afternoon, Jonathan Broxton was shut down with elbow pain. As I joked on Twitter, it’s a very odd feeling to hope that your All-Star closer has a shredded elbow. We’ve all noted before that finding something physically wrong would actually be a very good thing, as it would at least allow

Just before the game, and after he was included in the originally announced lineup, Andre Ethier was removed with – you guessed it – elbow pain. By all indications, this isn’t serious, and if it’s bothering him it’s great to allow him two consecutive days off, paired with tomorrow’s off-day. But by removing Ethier and including Gwynn in his place, it really underscored the well-known issue that this is a team that revolves around Ethier and Matt Kemp. Half of the time, it’s not even enough to have them both in an producing while the rest of the team flounders. Without one in the lineup, the offense seems doomed before the first pitch.

But that wasn’t all – in the fourth inning, Juan Uribe was hit in the hand by a pitch. He stayed in the game for another inning, but then left in favor of Jamey Carroll, who originally had the day off. That’s the third injury for Uribe in just over a month, and his absense left an infield better seen on Arizona fields in March. No word yet on his severity.

Tomorrow’s an off day, but I’ve got something interesting to share with you. Be here.

Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley Are Regressing (Updated)

May 4, 2011 at 6:46 am | Posted in Brad Penny, Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Jonathan Broxton | 32 Comments

One year ago today, Clayton Kershaw turned in the worst start of his young career, allowing seven earned runs while lasting only 1.1 innings against the Brewers. After a string of good starts to start the season (not allowing more than 3 ER in any, though with an admittedly troubling walk rate), the Milwaukee debacle alone pushed his ERA from 3.07 to 4.99, showing just how unreliable such stats can be early in the season. As I said at the time, I felt any worry was much ado about nothing, based on Kershaw’s history – at 21 in 2009, he’d compiled 4.2 bWAR, right in between C.C. Sabathia and Josh Beckett. Even the best starters have a rough game from time to time, and the decimated state of the Dodger rotation (at the time featuring Charlie Haeger, Carlos Monasterios, and a pre-mania John Ely) contributed more to the panic over Kershaw’s bad start than anything.

At the same time, Chad Billingsley was doing his best to shake off the worry over the poor end to his 2009 season. He gave up six earned runs in his second start and didn’t make it out of the fourth in his third, leading me to jokingly ask what to do with him, though his next two starts were much better, going six innings with two earned runs each time. (See “And That’s Why You Stick With Chad Billingsley” to relive it all.) There was absolutely concern after the second half of 2009, though he’d ended that year with two promising starts, and his 2007-09 added up to the 35th most pitching bWAR, even despite the lousy conclusion to 2009.

Meanwhile in St. Louis, 32-year-old Brad Penny was off to a surprisingly decent start, this after getting cut loose by the Dodgers after an awful and injury-plagued 2008 and getting released by the Red Sox in August of 2009. Having pitched three of his five games against the noted offensive powerhouses of Houston, Arizona, and San Francisco, Penny’s ERA was a sparkling 1.56, a number which everyone knew couldn’t last as he’d struck out just 18 in 34.2 innings. It didn’t; Penny allowed 14 earned runs over 21 innings in just four more starts before missing the remainder of the season due to injury. The ERA which had looked so good weeks earlier ended up being 6.11.

This is where we stood one year ago today, on May 4, 2010, when Sports Illustrated‘s Jon Heyman dropped a tweet which will surely haunt him forever:

kershaw may be regressing faster than billingsley. not sure. close competition. #howcanbradpennybebetterthanboth?

At the time, it seemed comical. A national baseball writer for a respected publication was claiming that two former first round picks, each in their early-to-mid twenties with a track record of success, were each worse than an overweight 32-year-old on his fourth team in three years? I’ll admit that we all had some worries about Billingsley, though I was confident he’d work through them – he has – but to question Kershaw at the time based on one lousy start was crazy. It’s now gone from comical to ludicrous, if you look at what the threesome have done since then.

Clayton Kershaw, May 5, 2010 – May 5, 2011
GS: 33 IP: 219.0 Line against: .216/.282/.317 K/9: 9.9 BB/9: 3.3 K/BB: 3.1

Chad Billingsley, May 5, 2010 – May 5, 2011
GS: 32 IP: 201.0 Line against: .234/.306/.332 K/9: 9.1 BB/9: 3.5 K/BB: 2.6

Brad Penny, May 5, 2010 – May 5, 2011
GS: 11 IP: 62.1 Line against: .286/.344/.457 K/9: 6.0 BB/9: 2.9 K/BB: 2.0

Yeah, I think I’m pretty okay with the regressing Kershaw and Billingsley, wouldn’t you say?

******

No, I’m not ignoring another Jonathan Broxton breakdown last night. (To be honest, I only saw the first four innings of the game.) But from what I’m reading, this only seems to validate the point I’ve been making all along: whether he’s willing to admit it or not, there’s something physically wrong with him, particularly if he really was only throwing 89-93 last night. Whether that’s an arm injury, bad mechanics, or poor conditioning (a point I’ll entertain while reminding that he’s always been a large guy), I can’t say. But it does point to a real, tangible issue, not the assaults on his manhood or emotional state some amateur psychiatrists like to call out. That’s really the only point I’ve ever tried to make, because I’ve never been blind to the fact that he’s not the same guy; just that 3+ years of excellent work doesn’t disappear so easily without a reason. And on the topic of “reasons”, why isn’t Joe Torre’s abusive usage included in every story mentioning Broxton’s troubles?

Update: Per Ken Gurnick, Broxton has been shut down with elbow pain. It’s very odd to consider this as being good news, but it is.

Sad Juan Uribe is Sad

May 3, 2011 at 2:05 pm | Posted in Aaron Miles, Felipe Lopez, Juan Uribe, Marcus Thames | 18 Comments

This is too good not to share – thanks to the magic of Twitter, I present to you my new favorite Tumblr, “Emo Juan Uribe“. A few choice selections:

Thank you, Internet. Thank you.

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In about an hour (3pm PT) over at Dodger Divorce, Josh Fisher and Molly Knight will be chatting as Frank McCourt appears live on 710, including taking phone calls from fans. Join them in the chat, but mostly be sure to call McCourt and try to ensure he doesn’t get all softball questions.

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Swapping out old, injured outfielders: the Dodgers today placed Marcus Thames on the DL with a right quad strain and recalled Jay Gibbons from ABQ. Thames has been dealing with that issue for a while now and has just six hits this season. Clearly, if he’s not hitting, he has zero value, so this makes sense.

******

Just a quick thought, as I attempt to avoid the work piling up on my desk. Today, the Tampa Bay rays DFA’d infielder Felipe Lopez to make room for Evan Longoria‘s return from the disabled list. You may remember Lopez as “the guy I wanted the Dodgers to sign in the offseason of 2009-10 instead of Jamey Carroll.” I freely admit that was a mistake on my part, though in my defense, Lopez was a switch hitter over six years younger, who was coming off an excellent 2009 of .310/.383/.427 split between Arizona and Milwaukee.

Clearly, I’ll eat crow on that one, and Lopez has had a tough two years since, putting up just a .649 OPS and getting DFA’d by St. Louis last year for reportedly being late to a game. That said, Lopez is 31 and was once a quality player, hitting 23 homers with an .818 OPS in 2005 along with that 2009, and overall has contributed 7.3 WAR in 11 seasons. He got off to a good start this year – even hitting cleanup several times for Tampa – while Longoria was out. Meanwhile, Aaron Miles is 34, has just a .602 OPS this year (less than what Lopez had in the tougher AL East), and has contributed 0.2 WAR in 9 seasons.

Lopez isn’t great, but he once was good, and he’s younger than Miles. Worth a shot?

Dodgers 5, Cubs 2

May 2, 2011 at 1:21 pm | Posted in Clayton Kershaw, Jonathan Broxton, Juan Uribe | 34 Comments

If this post comes out looking weird, and with a boring title, you can thank my internet for dipping out halfway through it, thus requiring me to finish it on my phone and denying you an animated gif of Jerry Sands‘ awesome grandpa. Thanks, Time Warner!

Tonight was something of an odd outing for Clayton Kershaw. He didn’t walk a single batter in his seven innings, which is excellent, and just the fifth time he’s managed that. (All, it should be noted, having come in the last ten months). But he also struck out four, an abnormally low amount for him, and gave up eight hits, tied for the third most he’s ever given up.

I suppose there’s a positive to be taken from that, in that while Kershaw was far from the most dominating we’ve seen him, he kept the damage to a minimum, because no one’s complaining about two earned runs in seven innings, right? Three of the eight hits came in the first, with the run scoring on a Geovany Soto double, and the other came on a ball that Alfonso Soriano crushed to left field in the 7th.

I knew Kershaw giving up a blast to Soriano sounded familiar, and indeed, this is what I wrote last July, just after Kershaw made it through another game without a walk:

while he did give up a homer to Alfonso Soriano, that ball was hit so hard that it was almost enjoyable to watch.

Besides Kershaw, we certainly shouldn’t minimize Ivan DeJesus, who drove in his first run on what should have been a double, Jerry Sands, who barely missed his first homer but still doubled in two, or Andre Ethier, who kept his streak going. But tonight we really should focus on two players who got nothing but garbage from us all during April, Juan Uribe and Jonathan Broxton.

Uribe had two hits, including a double, but just as importantly wowed the crowd (and Vin) with several excellent plays at third base. When he was signed, we never could reconcile why the fielding metrics liked a guy who really didn’t seem like much of an athlete, but he’s looked stellar with the glove, and his bat is picking up too.

Broxton, of course mowed down three Cubs on eight pitches in the 9th. It was his first clean inning since the Nixon administration. If only for one night, he let us breathe easily, and for that, we thank him.

Today’s Game as a Microcosm of the Season

May 1, 2011 at 4:16 pm | Posted in Hong-Chih Kuo | 22 Comments

Contributions from the “big three”, nothing at all from the rest of the lineup, a decent starting pitching performance, and issues in the bullpen? Yeah, we’ve got that, just like every other day.

Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Jamey Carroll, the aforementioned “big three”, all got hits, going 4-10 between then with Ethier also reaching on a walk.

As usual, just about no one else did, as the rest of the lineup went 1-19 with just a 9th inning Aaron Miles single and a Tony Gwynn walk. Remember, that’s against Dustin Moseley, whose sparkling 1.99 ERA entering the game belies the fact that he’d struck out just ten men in 31.2 innings, hence the 4.05 xFIP. Moseley, of course, struck out six Dodgers in seven innings.

That’s how you spoil a perfectly acceptable six inning, three run outing from your fifth starter, with Jon Garland pitching five scoreless around a difficult second inning. Though Blake Hawksworth was solid in contributing two scoreless innings, much more disturbing was Hong-Chih Kuo‘s seemingly premature return from the disabled list.

Kuo threw 25 pitches, but just 14 for strikes while allowing four men to reach in a 9th inning he couldn’t complete. His velocity was in the low 90s, but his control was all over the place; he was finally yanked after hitting Will Venable with a big, looping curveball, one of several breaking pitches he had no command of. Mike MacDougal followed by allowing a run to score on a sacrifice fly, and two more on a Chase Headley double. As Tony Jackson tweeted, if you’re really keeping Lance Cormier around to be a mop up guy, you’d think that’s when he’d make an appearance, especially not having pitched in nine days. Cormier eventually came in as the third pitcher of the inning after MacDougal ran the score to 7-0.

With the loss, the Dodgers fall back to one game under .500.

Dodgers Swap Out Jansen for Kuo

May 1, 2011 at 11:15 am | Posted in Hong-Chih Kuo, Kenley Jansen | 24 Comments

Dylan Hernandez with some unexpected news:

The #Dodgers have reinstated LHP Hong-Chih Kuo and optioned RHP Kenley Jansen to Triple-A Albuquerque.

It’s great to have Kuo back, of course, assuming that he’s healthy and ready to go, which remains to be seen. It’s the demotion of Jansen that’s somewhat confusing. Obviously, his ERA of 7.43 is pretty ugly, though 9 of the 11 earned runs he’s allowed came in just two games – one of which was his season debut.

Since allowing four earned runs to the Giants on April 2, Jansen’s pitched in 12.1 innings over 10 games. In that time, he’s struck out 20 against 6 walks, allowing a line of .196/.288/.391. He did have a meltdown on April 19 against the Braves, giving up five earned runs in the 9th inning of a game that the Dodgers were already losing, but has been excellent in the three games since: 9 strikeouts and 2 walks in 4.2 innings, without a hit.

Yet Lance Cormier, who’s pitched just once in the last two weeks, and only once has made it through an appearance without giving up a run, remains. I assume that this falls under Ned Colletti’s usual m.o. of keeping control over as many players as possible, and I guess it’s not the worst thing in the world for Jansen to get more experience in a lower-pressure environment, but with the bullpen struggling as much as it has been, it certainly seems like an odd choice to send down the guy who’s striking out 14.85 men per nine innings. That’s the highest rate of anyone in baseball this year with at least 13 innings pitched, and it’s the 8th best seasonal rate in major league history (obviously, in a tiny sample size).

Jansen will be back soon, and Cormier, most likely, won’t be. So this isn’t a fatal, crushing mistake. It’s just an unexpected choice to look at your bullpen full of guys who don’t miss bats – like Matt Guerrier, Cormier, and lately Jonathan Broxton – and send down the one guy who really does.