Matt Kemp In Position To Set Dodger Records
June 5, 2011 at 8:09 am | Posted in Matt Kemp | 16 Comments
After yesterday‘s two homer, six RBI outburst, Matt Kemp is currently on pace for an absolutely ridiculous season. No, really; he’d end the year with a .318/.395/.576 line, 41 homers, 38 steals (8 times caught), and a 151/74 K/BB ratio. While it’s still early and there’s hardly any sort of guarantee that he reaches those totals, we’re beyond the silly season of two homers on Opening Day setting a pace of 324 for the year, and we have enough data to know that what we’re seeing from him is for real. (It’s at this point that I’ll happily remind that I spent most of last fall and winter predicting a huge breakout year from him, though I’ll admit this is even beyond what I’d hoped for.)
If Kemp continues this tear, these team records are within his reach:
* Best offensive season by a Dodger center fielder. For a team with the heritage of the Dodgers, they really haven’t had a ton of memorable center fielders. Other than Duke Snider, who has 7 of the top 14 seasons by OPS+, you have a few good years from Jimmy Wynn or an occasional standout year from a Pete Reiser or a Brett Butler. Kemp, playing in a tougher hitter’s park than Snider had in Ebbets Field, is just a hair out of the all-time lead.
| Rk | Player | Year | Age | G | PA | R | H | HR | RBI | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke Snider | 171 | 1954 | 27 | 149 | 679 | 120 | 199 | 40 | 130 | 84 | 96 | .341 | .423 | .647 | 1.071 |
| 2 | Matt Kemp | 170 | 2011 | 26 | 59 | 248 | 36 | 69 | 15 | 46 | 27 | 55 | .318 | .395 | .576 | .971 |
| 3 | Duke Snider | 169 | 1955 | 28 | 148 | 653 | 126 | 166 | 42 | 136 | 104 | 87 | .309 | .418 | .628 | 1.046 |
| 4 | Duke Snider | 165 | 1953 | 26 | 153 | 680 | 132 | 198 | 42 | 126 | 82 | 90 | .336 | .419 | .627 | 1.046 |
| 5 | Pete Reiser | 163 | 1941 | 22 | 137 | 601 | 117 | 184 | 14 | 76 | 46 | 71 | .343 | .406 | .558 | .964 |
You know what stands out the most to me in that list? The numbers in bold are stats that led the league, and Snider struck out more than anyone in 1954… with just 96. How times have changed.
* Most homers in a season, non-crazy-offensive-environment-of-early-2000s division. This is cheating just a bit, I admit, and Kemp isn’t going to reach Shawn Green‘s club record of 49. But take a look at the top five homer seasons in Dodger history, won’t you?
| Rk | Player | HR | Year | Age | PA | R | H | RBI | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shawn Green | 49 | 2001 | 28 | 701 | 121 | 184 | 125 | 72 | 107 | .297 | .372 | .598 | .970 |
| 2 | Adrian Beltre | 48 | 2004 | 25 | 657 | 104 | 200 | 121 | 53 | 87 | .334 | .388 | .629 | 1.017 |
| 3 | Gary Sheffield | 43 | 2000 | 31 | 612 | 105 | 163 | 109 | 101 | 71 | .325 | .438 | .643 | 1.081 |
| 4 | Duke Snider | 43 | 1956 | 29 | 652 | 112 | 158 | 101 | 99 | 101 | .292 | .399 | .598 | .997 |
| 5 | Shawn Green | 42 | 2002 | 29 | 685 | 110 | 166 | 114 | 93 | 112 | .285 | .385 | .558 | .944 |
Call it a league diluted by expansion, call it PEDs, call it a juiced baseball, call it whatever you want, but it’s hard to ignore that in a franchise that’s been in existence for well over a century, four of the top five power years came in a five-season stretch in one of the most notorious offensive eras in baseball history. Besides, Beltre’s a fine player, but has only once ever even reached even 28 homers in any other season. That’s not to set those accomplishments aside – neither Green nor Beltre was ever really at the forefront of any real enhancing worries – but they were clearly playing a different game than Kemp is now, even though it was less than a decade ago. Besides them, Snider’s record of 43, which stood for 44 years, is within Kemp’s reach.
* Top five most valuable season in team history. Kemp’s bWAR is at 2.9 right now, and we’ve played 36.4% of the season. Extrapolate that over 162 games, and he’d be at ~7.9. That’d put him behind only Beltre’s 2004, Mike Piazza‘s 1997, and Wynn’s 1974.
| Rk | Player | WAR/pos | Year | Age | PA | H | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adrian Beltre | 10.1 | 2004 | 25 | 657 | 200 | 48 | 121 | 53 | 87 | 7 | 2 | .334 | .388 | .629 | 1.017 |
| 2 | Mike Piazza | 9.3 | 1997 | 28 | 633 | 201 | 40 | 124 | 69 | 77 | 5 | 1 | .362 | .431 | .638 | 1.070 |
| 3 | Jim Wynn | 8.6 | 1974 | 32 | 656 | 145 | 32 | 108 | 108 | 104 | 18 | 15 | .271 | .387 | .497 | .884 |
| 4 | Pedro Guerrero | 7.8 | 1985 | 29 | 581 | 156 | 33 | 87 | 83 | 68 | 12 | 4 | .320 | .422 | .577 | .999 |
| 5 | Willie Davis | 7.6 | 1964 | 24 | 652 | 180 | 12 | 77 | 22 | 59 | 42 | 13 | .294 | .316 | .413 | .729 |
Good lord, look at Wynn’s K/BB rate that year. 104/108? Unreal.
* RBI by a Los Angeles Dodger, non-Tommy Davis-unreal-fluke-year-division. In 1962, 23-year-old Tommy Davis, playing mostly left field and third base, drove in 153 runs. Davis had a quality career in parts of 18 seasons, yet never once drove in 90 runs in any other season. How’d that happen? Davis’ career-high 230 hits certainly helped, though I’m guessing hitting behind Maury Wills (104 SB) and Jim Gilliam (.372 OBP) didn’t hurt his cause either. Fluke? Fluke. Kemp, on pace for 126, would have the second-highest mark of any LA Dodger.
| Rk | Player | RBI | Year | Age | Tm | PA | R | H | HR | BB | IBB | SO | Pos | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tommy Davis | 153 | 1962 | 23 | LAD | 711 | 120 | 230 | 27 | 33 | 6 | 65 | .346 | .374 | .535 | .910 | *758/9 |
| 2 | Shawn Green | 125 | 2001 | 28 | LAD | 701 | 121 | 184 | 49 | 72 | 10 | 107 | .297 | .372 | .598 | .970 | *9/83 |
| 3 | Mike Piazza | 124 | 1997 | 28 | LAD | 633 | 104 | 201 | 40 | 69 | 11 | 77 | .362 | .431 | .638 | 1.070 | *2/D |
| 4 | Adrian Beltre | 121 | 2004 | 25 | LAD | 657 | 104 | 200 | 48 | 53 | 9 | 87 | .334 | .388 | .629 | 1.017 | *5/6 |
| 5 | Frank Howard | 119 | 1962 | 25 | LAD | 538 | 80 | 146 | 31 | 39 | 10 | 108 | .296 | .346 | .560 | .906 | *9/7 |
(Yes, RBI are stupid. But don’t think that the media and a majority of fans wouldn’t make a big deal over a large RBI total.)
*****
Clearly, Kemp’s having a season for the ages, but it might be even better than that. One thing I couldn’t really check for was “best season by a guy surrounded by minor leaguers.” Beltre had Green, Jayson Werth, Milton Bradley, and Paul LoDuca around him in 2004. Snider had the classic “Boys of Summer” lineup on his side. Other than Andre Ethier and possibly Jamey Carroll, who does Kemp have? Not nearly enough, but in a season that is quickly slipping away, at least we have Matt Kemp.
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Why would any team in the NL allow this to happen?
The game plan against the Dodgers will be to nibble the corners on this guy, make him fish if he wants break any records. There is nobody hitting behind him, so, why let him hurt you?
I would not bet on any Dodger records being broken. Kemp will have a good year, but until the Dodgers find someone to protect him, he will not have a monster year.
Comment by Rory— June 5, 2011 #
Tommy Davis might have driven in 100 runs again, but we will never know how good he could have been after he broke his ankle. He could never really play a full season again and his speed was taken away from him. He was the best everyday player on that 1965 team and was just showing signs of heating up when he hideously broke that ankle. It is still a wonder to me how they won that season. 1965 was the most fun season I ever experienced. 1966 was pretty similar. If only we could have scored 2 runs per game in that series.
Comment by Bob Springer— June 5, 2011 #
I agree about Tommy D, but it’s worth adding that his 153 RBI came in an expansion year.
Comment by WBB— June 5, 2011 #
jamey carrol is still the team MVP
Comment by steve lyons— June 5, 2011 #
That is both inspiring and sad.
Comment by Rory— June 5, 2011 #
No he’s not. Sheesh.
Comment by Bob Springer— June 5, 2011 #
How about some records for Billingsley? He looked like a real batter on that homerun.
Comment by Tony Fernandez— June 5, 2011 #
“The pitchers took the ball every fifth day. That’s not Dusty’s fault.” – Steve Lyons, in reply to a question from Eric Collins about whether or not Dusty Baker’s reputation for ruining the arms of his pitchers was deserved.
Comment by The Dude Abides— June 5, 2011 #
As much as I dislike Lyons, I think he is correct about pitch counts and needing to throw more. Dusty doesn’t know anything about pitching and pitchers in general. He doesn’t monitor effectiveness and whether a pitcher is actually tired. He doesn’t know how.
Pitch counts though are a crutch. And I think they are hurting the game.
Comment by Bob Springer— June 5, 2011 #
[...] – again – and reached base five times. I’m already going to need to revise his march on the Dodger record books that I had earlier today, aren’t [...]
Pingback by Chad Billingsley Does it Backwards « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 5, 2011 #
Excellent take.
With a season of hitting like this we should overlook the occasional base running gaffe or outfield misplay – he has improved on those things though. I think due to his athleticism and lack of early baseball training and experience, it has taken him longer to pick up some of the nuances of fielding and base-running – thank goodness for Davey Lopes.
I would have to endorse him for NL MVP at this point and it would be a sin if he is not voted in by the fans for the All Star Game.
I would like to have some stats about his participation in what percentage of team runs scored. It may not be a record like some of Barry Bonds’ years, but it should be up there.
Kemp is getting a fair amount of intentional base on balls and probably many semi-intentional base on balls where they just do not give him a good pitch to hit. What would he be doing if he had a quality hitter behind him? What would he be hitting or producing if the Dodgers had any kind of competent line up. At least Ethier and Carroll have been on base often ahead of him.
I really see more focus from him this year – is that due to Lopes being there or the absence of Rhianna?
Comment by Kirk Davenport— June 5, 2011 #
Great post. I guess I undestand where you are coming from as regards the year that TD had, but describing something that transpires over the course of a 162-game season as a fluke doesn’t sit well with me.
Comment by Bob Hendley— June 5, 2011 #
Ok, Lyons is inanae.
Comment by Bob Hendley— June 5, 2011 #
Boy, that will teach me to call someone a name.
Comment by Bob Hendley— June 5, 2011 #
[...] That got him a ticket back to the minors until rosters expanded, and I think it’s worked out pretty well for him. The same can be said for Clayton Kershaw, who got a three-week trip back to AA after eight starts [...]
Pingback by Dodgers Beat Me to the Punch, Demote Jerry Sands « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 9, 2011 #
[...] the rest of the team stagnated around them. That wasn’t Kemp’s problem, though, and by early June we were already thinking about what kind of team records he might be in position to attack: After [...]
Pingback by MSTI’s 2011 in Review: Center Field « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— October 20, 2011 #