How Much Money Is Matt Kemp Earning Himself?
June 17, 2011 at 8:22 am | Posted in Matt Kemp | 84 Comments
Before 2010, Matt Kemp avoided arbitration by signing a two-year deal worth about $11 million. That deal expires at the end of this season, and Kemp will be arbitration-eligible for a final time in 2012 before reaching free agency at the end of next year. Kemp, of course, is putting up a season that looks more and more like it’ll be one of the best in Dodger history, as he’s on pace to hit 46 homers and steal 37 bases to go along with his .335/.420/.638 line. As the season goes on and the pennant race becomes a more and more distant dream, his contract situation is going to become a hot conversation piece. You can bet that he won’t be settling for two years and $11m again, but just how much money has he made himself with his performance this year?
Any conversation like this must immediately be prefaced with the usual disclaimer about deadbeat owner Frank McCourt and the uncertain financial situation in which the Dodgers find themselves. McCourt’s holding on to the ownership of this club on a bi-weekly basis as he scrambles to make each payroll, so it’s impossible to know what the situation will be when the season ends four months from now. Perhaps McCourt has managed to hang on until then. Maybe MLB will have taken over. It’s unlikely, but possible, that a sale could be in motion by then – or it could be some other scenario we can’t even dream about yet. None of that is going to change the fact that Matt Kemp is an extremely valuable asset who is going to get his money, so let’s pretend for the moment that we’re fans of a real team with responsible owners, and not the disaster we find ourselves in. (Additionally: minutes before I was to post this, I saw that Bill Shaikin is reporting that the McCourts have come to a settlement. We know none of the details yet, but Shaikin, Molly Knight, and Josh Fisher are usually nails on this story, so I won’t let the unknown there delay this post.)
Jon Heyman recently reported that Ned Colletti had initial conversations with Kemp’s agent, Dave Stewart, about a long-term deal, though clearly nothing has come of it yet. Despite Stewart’s well-publicized criticism of the Dodgers last season, that clearly seems to have blown over with the new on-field regime, and he and Colletti did just work together to sign Chad Billingsley to a deal earlier this year. I think every Dodger fan would like to see a long-term deal worked out, but let’s start small first.
What if Kemp goes to arbitration?
The record award for a position player in his third year of arbitration was the $15.5m that Prince Fielder got from the Brewers this past winter. Like Kemp, Fielder was coming off of a two-year deal and had not previously been to arbitration, though his deal had been for $18m, more than Kemp’s $11m. Arbitration panels are notorious for relying upon “old school” stats rather than more advanced methods, so we’ll stick with that here. In 2010, Fielder hit .261 with 32 homers and 83 RBI, scoring 94 runs. Kemp is on pace to top all of those marks this year. As if those numbers didn’t give him enough of an advantage over Fielder, he’s also on pace to steal the 37 bases, while playing a much more valuable defensive position. While Kemp is certainly going to be headed into the process with a better season in his pocket than Fielder, he’s also coming off a smaller contract and an uneven 2010. Those two factors mean that he may not break Fielder’s record, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see him come close. I could see Kemp getting anywhere from $13m-$15m in arbitration.
What if Kemp signs a long-term deal?
This assumes that Kemp wants to sign such a deal with the Dodgers. Outwardly he’s said all the right things, but we can’t really know for sure how frustrated he is with the current mess at the top and lack of talent around him, whether he’s enjoyed hitting on the road so much that he’d rather be away from Dodger Stadium more often, or whether he’d just prefer to be nearer to his Oklahoma roots. For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll figure he’ll want to stay. But at what cost? Let’s compare him to the two outfielders who signed $100m deals last winter, Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford. Like Kemp, each can kind-of sort-of play center field, but are much better situated in an outfield corner. (Age and stats for Werth and Crawford are through 2010, Kemp is to-date.)
Kemp compares favorably to both, and don’t forget that he still has the remainder of this season to complete; at his current pace he’ll overake Werth in WAR and lead all three in home runs. He’s the youngest of the three, and will likely be coming off the best season of any of them. On the surface, your initial thought might be, “he’s going to get seven years and $130m”.
But while it’s fun to compare him to Werth and Crawford, it’s not entirely accurate. Each were free agents, able to play multiple teams off each other for the highest offer, and Kemp will not have that luxury until after 2012. His negotiating ability is somewhat limited by the fact that he’s still under Dodger control for another year and can’t go out to speak with other teams. So a more accurate comparison would be to players who have signed extensions with their teams that bought out a year or two of arbitration… and that’s where we run into problems.
After doing some research, I’ve found that it’s incredibly difficult to find a good comparison to Kemp. Players of his youth and talent rarely reach the open market, and often don’t even get as close to it as he will. (Crawford made it because everyone knew the cash-strapped Rays couldn’t afford the extension; the Phillies have so many other big-ticket deals that they couldn’t squeeze Werth in as well. Fielder and possibly Albert Pujols are likely to be good case studies this winter.) When I put the question to Twitter last night, looking for extensions that had been signed at a similar point in a player’s career, I got a lot of good suggestions, but none that were close enough. Evan Longoria signed his extension about a week into his MLB career. Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, Dustin Pedroia, Carlos Gonzalez and Justin Upton each signed after roughly two full seasons. Jay Bruce, Nick Markakis and Ryan Zimmerman signed before their first trips to arbitration. Ryan Braun signed an eight-year deal in his second season, then had a bizarre 5/$105m extension added which doesn’t even kick in until 2016. Kemp will have over five years of service time when this season ends – just one more of team control - and that makes these calculations difficult.
The closest comparables I was able to find were Troy Tulowitzki and Ryan Howard, who each recently signed $100m+ deals to stay with their current clubs. Neither comp is perfect, for reasons I’ll state in a second, but for the moment let’s compare Kemp’s numbers to theirs. (Age and stats for Tulowitzki and Howard are through 2010, Kemp is to-date.)
Tulowitzki, like Kemp, made his debut in the summer of 2006. But he’s also a quality defensive shortstop, and hadn’t gone year-to-year like Kemp; after just over one full season, he signed a 6/$31m contract following 2007. When he signed his mammoth 10/$157.5m deal after 2010, it replaced the final three years of that deal. Howard’s situation is even more complicated (and controversial). He’s older than both and plays a less valuable position, and won a $10m contract in his first year of arbitration in 2008, then signed a 3/$54m deal to avoid going to arbitration a second time in 2009. That deal would have bought out his arbitration years and made him a free agent after this season… except that in April of 2010, the Phillies tacked on a ludicrous 5/$125m extension that doesn’t even kick in until 2012. If Kemp keeps up his current pace, he’ll top Tulo’s WAR and would come close to matching Howard’s.
All of which is a long way of saying, there hasn’t been a recent example like Kemp to point to. If he decides to play out his last year and hit the market, and has another good year in 2012, he’s likely looking at a massive $100m+ contract somewhere. If he signs a deal with the Dodgers, he’ll still get a hefty fee, but without the open market at play he’d probably have to leave some money on the table in exchange for avoiding the risk that would come with an injury or poor performance next season.
So let’s spitball this. It seems clear that if he finishes this season the way he started it, Kemp’s value on the open market could be between $15m-$20m a year. (I’m doing my best to avoid the fact that Howard got $25m a year well into his 30s, which is so insane I can’t even talk about it.) If he signed with the Dodgers (again, acting like we follow a real team) following 2011, he’d probably get on the lower end of that because he’s not a free agent and would pass up the 2012 risk. He’s also young enough that he might not want a 7-8 year deal like we’ve seen here, figuring that he could sign another big deal at around 31. So let’s start the bidding at… 5 years, $80m. Would you do that? Would he?
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The 5/80 seems about right to me. I can’t see him keeping this pace up all year. Without putting too much effort into it I picked the date range of 4/18 to 6/1. That’s 41 games. During that time he went .243/.320/.480 with 6 steals and 45 strike outs. My guess is we have one more stretch like that coming at some point this season. I would trade Ethier at the deadline (assuming a miracle doesn’t happen), move Kemp to right, try Gwynn in center for the rest of the season, and use Ethier’s money to attempt the 5/80. I wouldn’t go much more than that. If he won’t bite take a one year arb deal and see how his first half of 2012 looks. Maybe the ownership situation is in better shape by then. Also I’d love to see him stay off the DL for another 12 months before going too long on a deal.
Comment by Warren— June 17, 2011 #
If ownership had money, a sense of doing the right thing or ethics, I would bet on a six year deal in the $110-$120 million range. That takes Kemp to the age of 32/33. By then, if he desires, he could still have some marketable seasons if he wanted to try free agency. But, given the state of the Dodgers’ ownership and the fact that the league may be running the team in two weeks, I am feeling pretty sure Kemp will go to arbitration and get something around $14-$15 million. I just hope this whole mess doesn’t put Bison off on the Dodgers.
Comment by grabarkewitz— June 17, 2011 #
Given the state of things, I would do almost anything to keep Kemp. We’re already losing a lot (in more ways than one), I can’t imagine adding Kemp to that list. As much as I love some of the other guys and consider them valuable, I would let them go if it meant keeping Kemp.
Comment by Jessica— June 17, 2011 #
I agree. Most fans won’t find it popular but I’m definitely in favor of trading Ethier this winter if it brings back a quality return.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 17, 2011 #
Wait a second. Didn’t you write a post earlier this year complaining that Ethier was crazy to speak of the uncertainty he felt regarding his future with the team?
Comment by Clay— June 17, 2011 #
I wrote that he was crazy to suggest he’d really be non-tendered this winter. Not traded.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 17, 2011 #
I don’t remember Ethier talking about being non-tendered, just that (probably due to the situation with Martin) he was unsure about his future with the team, and then everybody jumped on him for saying that. And now I’ve noticed in the comments in quite a few stories people talking about trading Ethier which totally shows that his uncertainty was warranted.
Comment by Clay— June 17, 2011 #
They should trade him before 7/31 so they can maximize the return.
Comment by Dustin Nosler— June 17, 2011 #
no we wouldnt. whats with your dislike of Ethier Mike? whats your definition of a quality return?
Comment by format— June 17, 2011 #
I don’t dislike Ethier at all, I like him quite a bit. He’s just going to be looking for a very big contract in free agency, and I’m not sure that I want to do that for a guy who can’t hit lefties, isn’t a great fielder, and is a good but not great hitter – especially when Kemp and Kershaw need to be taken care of at the same time.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 17, 2011 #
dont agree here. hes been in the league’s top ten in avg and OBP all year long. were alot better off with him than without him. they should sign all three long term. imagine how awful our lineup would be without Dre hitting ahead of Kemp.
Comment by format— June 17, 2011 #
But how likely is it that they can really sign all three to big deals? I’m not confident that they can even sign ONE… Ethier’s definitely behind Kemp and Kershaw on my list. He’s very good, but older and less productive than both.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 17, 2011 #
Also, Ethier is 2 1/2years older than Kemp. Best would be to keep all 3, but I think most here would agree that if only 2 are in the budget, it’s gotta be Kemp and Kershaw. And a quality return would be a young, nearly-major league ready hitter with huge upside. Basically, a guy like what we got for Milton Bradley :). I’d prefer a corner infielder or a catcher.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— June 17, 2011 #
I think you might also consider waiting until the 2012 deadline to trade Ethier. I’m with Mike, even though I know Ethier is good, I’m not sure he’s as good as what he’s going to make in free agency. Let someone else overpay and trade him at the 2012 deadline. I think you get something like Dave said, but basically you get the #1 prospect at 3B, C or OF from the team, with a solid arm type pitcher with upside and maybe a B prospect at another position we are short at in the farm.
Comment by Jon#7#22— June 17, 2011 #
Also keep in mind that if he were signed long term, say a 5 year deal, his age 30-35 year seasons are not likely to be as good as his age 25-30 seasons. At a high free agent market price, there is simply too much risk there.
Jerry Sands, Trayvon Robinson, Trent Oeltjen, Jamie Hoffman, and Kyle Russell present near term internal options as replacements. If the Dodgers wait until the 12 deadline to trade him, Angelo Songco, Blake Smith, and Brian Cavasoz Galvez might be ready to join the fray. Those are just the internal options! Plenty of ways the Dodgers can replace Ethier. Though it would be best to add a Fielder at first to replace his offense.
If McCourt does keep the team, it will take long term contracts to Kemp, Kershaw, and a free agent like Fielder for me to get on board a McCourt ownership.
Comment by Table— June 17, 2011 #
^this
Comment by @BrocNessMonster— June 18, 2011 #
Think about this. Ethier has actually become an overrated player because of his 6 walk-offs in 2009 and his 30 game hitting streak this year. Both of those things are things that give a player a lot of notoriety but aren’t signs of sustainable performance. So, given that this team simply can’t sign enough players to be good now, we have to think about how we can be good in 2-3 years, and I guarantee that someone will overpay for Ethier with players that will be way more valuable in 2014 than a 32 year old Ethier will be.
Comment by Bip— June 17, 2011 #
The only guy I wouldn’t let go to keep Kemp is Kershaw. Anybody else is fair game.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— June 17, 2011 #
I would think that Gordon is bulletproof, but that has never stopped Ned from doing something asinine. Re: Carlos Santana.
Comment by grabarkewitz— June 17, 2011 #
I think the original post was related to not signing or trading expensive guys (like Ethier) in order to keep Kemp. Clayton is gonna get a ton of money in his first arb trip this offseason. Gordon (and Sands and Robinson) are still gonna be cheap for a few years.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— June 17, 2011 #
One thing that could skew the numbers here, especially the arb estimates… Kemp looks very much like he’ll be heavily in the MVP discusssion. If he wins it, his value skyrockets. Hardware brings dollars.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— June 17, 2011 #
Very good point!
Comment by Jon#7#22— June 17, 2011 #
If Kemp finishes the season with a .900+ OPS and 35+ HRs, I’m not sure he’d take 5/80. I wouldn’t have any problem if the Dodgers made him a $100 million player. He’s playing that well and is that important to the franchise.
Comment by Dustin Nosler— June 17, 2011 #
5 years 80 million is way low Mike.
He could earn another big contract after his age 32 or 33 season, I think the value of adding another 20 million dollar season or two on to his contract is worth more than the ability to become a free agent and earn that next contract.
16 mill annually is way low as well sure the deal could be structured to pay him 16 mill some of the years, but it would escalate closer to 20 as it went along. I don’t think he would take lower than an 18 mill average for the free agent years. Accounting for the arb year, say he gets 15 mill. Thats 1 year 15 mill 5 years 18 mill.
So 6-7 years 105-123 mill. If he finishes this season at something like his current pace, this seems like a reasonable if not slightly conservative estimate.
If somehow Kemp is not signed long term this offseason and he repeated this production through the 2012 season, then the numbers change drastically.
He would still be looking at 6-7 years, 8 if he wanted that many. He would easily demand a 20 million annual salary plus incentives depending on performance, awards, milestones etc, that could push the annual values to 23 mill.
How does 7 years 161 mill sound to you?
That’s what I thought……time to lock up Kemp this offseason……Of course it should have been done way earlier.
Comment by Table— June 17, 2011 #
Andre Ethier is going to be an interesting case too. He might get way overpayed. Considering his age, I’m not sure the Dodgers should want a part of it. I’d probably start shopping him this year. Try to sign Fielder this offseason to pair with Kemp long term. Keep Ethier and Fielder for 2012, then let Ethier go. Long term I would rather be paying a younger albeit fatter Fielder 20 mill than an older less powerful Ethier 17 mill
Comment by Table— June 17, 2011 #
Unless the team gets sold, Prince is a pipe dream. So… let’s all pray to whatever God we choose for Frank McCourt to fail miserably in everything he does between now and August 5th.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— June 17, 2011 #
I don’t think that’s entirely true. If it takes 20 mill per year to get Fielder, the Dodgers could afford that. Furcal (12 mill) Kuroda (12 mill) a traded Ethier (9.25 mill) Broxton (7 mill) Blake (5.25 mill) Loney (4.87 mill) Garland (5 mill) Barajas (3.25 mill) Carroll (3.85 mill) Padilla, Navarro, Thames, Gwynn Jr, other vets ( over 8 mill) could all be off the books next year. McCourt could lower payroll, sign Kemp long term, and still be able to sign Fielder. After that you would just have to fill the remaining spots with as many cheap internal options as possible, and then use your remaining funds on any remaining priorities.
Comment by Table— June 17, 2011 #
You might be right. I’m not sure I want to commit that much cash to Fielder though.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 17, 2011 #
Pujols then (I don’t really think Fielder’s body is going to cause him to collapse before his age 35 season anyhow, look at Big Papi)
Comment by Table— June 17, 2011 #
I just don’t see any better ways of investing the money. Dodgers missed out on Beltre at 3rd. They aren’t going to go in heavy for a 2ndbaseman or catcher. The pitching staff is fine as is. In the OF there’s Ethier…but I would rather pay a bit more for Fielder.
If you don’t spend the money on a superstar type player, then it just gets divided up between mediocre catchers infielders and relief pitchers……..meh.
Comment by Table— June 17, 2011 #
I hear you. We’re a long way away from having that kind of money to spend, though, especially when we’re expecting payroll to be missed in less than two weeks.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 17, 2011 #
True dat….how in the world did this nonsense happen……..
Comment by Table— June 17, 2011 #
As I said to Eric of TBLA on twitter this morning, “remember when we used to just be baseball fans?”
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 17, 2011 #
I guess I also have to keep in mind that I wanted Carlos Lee and Daisuke Matsuzaka back in 06……(still better than Schmidt and Pierre)
Comment by Table— June 17, 2011 #
I would give him whatever he wAnts can’t afford to lose him or kershaw that’s our foundation. I remember when he came into the league I thought he had potential for an MVP award, sure looks like he’s on his way now if we can start winning some games.
Comment by scullyfan24— June 17, 2011 #
Because it’s fun to do and because you’ve done it before…who would you trade Ethier to?
Comment by Lex— June 17, 2011 #
Good question not sure who’s out there and what teams would be interested in Ethier offhand except for that weird rumor about the Red Sox (which I think was really nothing)…
Comment by Jon#7#22— June 17, 2011 #
I don’t know if the Reds want him, but the Reds have guys I want
Devin Mesoraco would solve our catching problem
Yonder Alsonso would be what we always hoped Loney would be.
Juan Fransisco/Todd Frazier present better 3rd base options than you will find on the free agent market or in the Dodger’s minor league system.
Comment by Table— June 17, 2011 #
Love the idea of getting Mesoraco and Alonso from the Reds. It solves two huge problems. I have a blog post ready to go with five teams (including the Reds) I would like to see Ethier traded to and what I’d like in return. I’ll probably fire it off early next week.
The Dodgers probably won’t deal him, but they really should.
Comment by Dustin Nosler— June 17, 2011 #
How about to the Mariners for Michael Pineda?
Comment by matt.— June 20, 2011 #
Hey Mike have you thought of updating the sidebar from Belisario to say McCourt gone countdown or something else???
Comment by Jon#7#22— June 17, 2011 #
I should, probably. I keep trying to finish the design for the new blog but never quite get around to it.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 17, 2011 #
No prob, enjoy the great write ups more than how it looks!
Comment by Jon#7#22— June 17, 2011 #
Thank you. It’s less about looks than functionality – I’m on the free version of WP and you’re very limited as far as what you can include. An excellent example would be a live McCourt countdown.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 17, 2011 #
I’ll try to keep this short but I’ve got 3 points. 1) Given the settlement this morning, it now appears much more likely that our long Los Angeles nightmare is not over and…hang on, I’m trying to muster the courage here…and, it looks probable that Selig is backed into a corner and will not be able to oust our the knucklehead we have masquerading as an owner. 2) Dave Stewart has gone on record (or at least on VSIMH’s website) as saying that Kemp will not be resigning with this ownership group (could be posturing I guess.) 3) I’m a little fuzzy on this part but, didn’t Kemp buy out that final year of eligiblity by signing that 2 year extension? I other words, I believe he might be a free agent at the end of this season! If so, the apocalyse is upon us Dodger fans…
Comment by Doug Harris— June 17, 2011 #
1. Not exactly. Frank could still miss payroll on June 30 and throw everything into disarray again.
2. If the money’s there, they’ll take it. It was an offhand comment to Roberto at VSIMH, not really ‘on record’.
3. Nope, he’s a free agent after 2012.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 17, 2011 #
1) Hope you’re right. That might be the last chance to get him. And he will definitely prusue legal means if MLB takes the franchise after today’s developements.
2) Keep in mind Dave Stewart’s rep. He’s very bullheaded. Hopefully, the Billingsly deal is a step in the right direction for Kemp.
3) Thank God!!! Don’t know where I heard that but glad to know it’s not the case.
Comment by Doug Harris— June 17, 2011 #
“So let’s start the bidding at… 5 years, $80m. Would you do that? Would he?”
Hell yes, and god I hope so.
Comment by Gregory Zakwin— June 17, 2011 #
Dare to dream. 2012 dodgers starting lineup in a perfect world.
Dee Gordon SS
Trayvon Robinson CF
Matt Kemp LF
Prince Fielder 1B
Andre Ethier RF
Brandon Phillips 2B
Jerry Sands 3B
David Ross C
Comment by johnmano12— June 17, 2011 #
That offense would be rad, but the infield might be the worst defensive group in big league history.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 17, 2011 #
Phillips is a gold glover, and Gordon has gold glove potential.
Comment by johnmano12— June 17, 2011 #
Gold Gloves are useless. Remember, Kemp won one too, and Jeter’s still winning them.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 17, 2011 #
While I agree with you can’t even make a statistical case for Kemp (although his UZR in 09 wasn’t nearly as bad as 10-11) and Jeter to deserve gold gloves Phillips actually is a good fielder. While a lot of people who win gold gloves don’t deserve them some actually do. He is consistently in the top 5 in the majors in UZR among 2nd basemen.
Comment by johnmano12— June 17, 2011 #
It’d be terrible defense at the corners, but could be solid up the middle.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— June 17, 2011 #
In a very reasonable world they could trade Ethier for a 3rd baseman and end up with
Gordon
Oeltjen/Hoffman
Kemp
Fielder
Sands
3rdbaseman (Ethier loot)
Uribe
Ellis
Using Ellis at catcher saves money
Oeltjen and Hoffman hold down an OF spot until Robinson is ready.
I guess the Dodgers could hang onto Ethier for 2012 but they would be in contention and wouldn’t trade him at the deadline, meaning they would simply offer him arb and get picks at the end of the year. That doesn’t help the team during 2013-2016 while Kemp and Fielder are in their primes. I would rather trade Ethier for help at 3rd or catcher for this reason.
Comment by Table— June 17, 2011 #
I would give Robinson the nod right off the bat in CF. He is killing the ball in Triple A (not just at home on the road as well) and there is no doubt in my mind he will start in the OF next year. He is already expected to come up in July and get some time then to see how he does.
Comment by johnmano12— June 17, 2011 #
I would like to see his BB% get back up to it’s 2010 levels. A few other things as well. It’s not much of a sticking point in any case.
Comment by Table— June 17, 2011 #
Who’s the loot? Who’s out there ready to start and contribute next year at 3B?
Comment by Jon#7#22— June 17, 2011 #
Yeah…I’m not entirely sure, I would also have to first limit my search to teams who would be a fit for Ethier. I’ll look into it.
Comment by Table— June 17, 2011 #
The most humorous and ludicrous thing about this lineup is that you think Ethier is a better defender than Kemp, and Kemp should be relegated to LF.
Comment by Gregory Zakwin— June 17, 2011 #
I just did a through roster analysis for 2012 which I will probably make into a fan post at TBLA, I came up with a roster for the Dodgers including Fielder that came in at 98-110 mill not counting deferred payments to the Manny,Jones, Pierre group. So it’s doable.
Comment by Table— June 17, 2011 #
Thorough
Comment by Table— June 17, 2011 #
But we’re at 110 this year counting deferred payments. How do we know there will be more $ next year when we don’t even know who the owner will be?
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 17, 2011 #
The 110 figure could be brought down to the 98 figure without much problem. I just don’t know how much the Dodgers plan on spending on a closer, so I estimated between 4-8 mill. Stuff like that. If they do it reasonably the 98 figure could be met. Or they could just deffer a bit of money on Kemp and Fielder’s contracts. I didn’t deffer any of it long term, I just scaled it progressively from year 1 to year 6, they could backload it further than I did.
Comment by Table— June 17, 2011 #
Any new owner would not want to be cheap during there first year, and If McCourt remained owner and did the Fox deal he could afford this, and would need to make a splash in order to regain some pr. It really just depends on having ownership resolution. That’s probably unlikely, but I’m hopefull. If the Dodgers are not players in 2012 free agency, they will have to wait a few years before they get another chance. The 2013 crop is very weak (except for Matt Kemp..dohhhh)
Comment by Table— June 17, 2011 #
Table, I don’t get over to TBLA as much as I should… could you link this when you post it? I’d like to see it….
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— June 17, 2011 #
I think that the only way Kemp signs with the Dodgers and one that makes sense for them is to sign a short term contract that is heavy on the per year $$$. I think the best shot would be something like 3/$55M. That allows Kemp one more big contract while still in his 20′s and the ability to leave if the team doesn’t improve. It also protects the club if the numbers are a one year spike in an otherwise solid player that isn’t a superstar.
I love watching Kemp now but I hated watching when he would always chase that outside slider.
Comment by west coast ram— June 17, 2011 #
Lol he doesn’t chase it much anymore though.
Comment by johnmano12— June 17, 2011 #
With dodgers current and future financial uncertainty the most probable dodgers pitching staff.
Clayton Kershaw LHP Closer: Kenley Jansen RHP
Chad Billingsley RHP Setup: Javy Guerra RHP
Rubby de la Rosa RHP Lefties: Hong Chih Kuo
Ted Lily LHP Scott Elbert
Allen Webster RHP The Rest: Josh Lindblom
Steven Ames
Matt Guerrier (sigh)
Comment by johnmano12— June 17, 2011 #
I think this depends greatly on if he continues this pace or if he settles down into level kind of like 2009. If the latter, I think Jason Werth is probably a good comparison contract. However, if he keeps this up for the rest of this season and into 2012, assuming we haven’t signed him yet, then we have to ask ourselves “What do you pay the most valuable hitter in the National League?” Sadly, that is a discussion that the Dodgers have not participated in for a while.
Comment by Bip— June 17, 2011 #
[...] How Much Money Is Matt Kemp Earning Himself?: Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness takes a look at the kind of payday Kemp is going to get if he keeps up his monster pace so far in 2011. [...]
Pingback by Baseball: How Much Money Is Matt Kemp Earning Himself? » Stathead » Blog Archive— June 17, 2011 #
What other notable free agents besides Fielder and Pujols?
Comment by DodgersKings323— June 17, 2011 #
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/03/2012-mlb-free-agents.html
Comment by Table— June 17, 2011 #
Mike,
Wasn’t it you who had Ethiers stats posted on your site and his triple crown numbers early last year.? I still think we have seen some GREAT stretches from him when Healthy. And pinkie and elbow injuries keeping him down. Maybe we should be more patient and not ‘make him Werth #2.?
Comment by DAVID S— June 17, 2011 #
Werth got cut loose for nothing. I’m certainly not trying to dump Ethier, but if a good enough package was offered I wouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 17, 2011 #
I don’t know why MSTI has to keep defending the idea of trading Ethier. It’s a no-brainer. The priorities are clearly locking up Kemp and Kershaw long-term. There are so many other holes to fill, you can’t spend 12+ million/year for 4-5 years (which is what Ethier will demand and get on the open market) on a RF who can’t hit lefties and plays mediocre defense. Ethier is a tad overvalued by people who don’t see him play every day and who don’t take a deeper look at his stats and defense. Obviously, the Dodgers shouldn’t just dump Ethier, but they should take advantage of the mis-perception and try to get something valuable in return. On a team largely devoid of tradeable assets, he’s the best opportunity. It’s not like the Dodgers don’t have promising young OF options in Sands and Robinson on deck who will be MUCH cheaper.
Comment by MaxPower— June 17, 2011 #
This is truly an awful team. Plus the fans aren’t turning out. Attendance is down 18%. Sure, much of it is due to management, but don’t fool yourselves: a lot of people just won’t pay the money to watch such a bad team. And the vaunted pitching staff? Thirteenth in the NL in ERA. According to the Sports Illustrated baseball guy, that’s never happened, not in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. So, yeah, the pitching staff sucks, too, right along with the rest of the team. And don’t give me this crap about how great they are. No they’re not. I watched Koufax, Drysdale, Osteen, Perranowski, Sutton, et al, keep weak hitting teams in the hunt. Some years. Other years, they failed, because a pitching staff can only do so much. Today’s Dodger pitchers can’t even approach those oldtimers. This is an awful team across-the-board.
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So what’s an awful team to do? Analyze the problem. The team stinks. So, if you want to improve, why would there be any untouchables? Why would you want to invest your limited funds for the future in just a couple of players? Your team stinks with ‘em, and if you throw a bunch of $$ at them, it’ll limit your ability to sign other high quality players. You need lots of good players, not just a couple of potential superstars. They won’t get you there. This isn’t basketball.
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Why would a team that’s arguably the worst in the league have any untouchables, any must-sign players? I’m thinking that Kemp’s value is at its peak and that the team could pick up some serious major league talent for him. Not prospects, real players. Same with Kershaw. Ethier. Billingsley. Why wouldn’t you think about this? The team is seriously bad with all of those guys making less than market wages, which means there is more money available for other talent. We’ve seen how that worked out, thanks to master talent scout Ned Colletti. How can the team ever improve if you burn up most of the payroll on the few high-end guys?
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This team has been cursed by the baseball gods. First, because some miserable parking lot tycoon from Boston was somehow allowed in the door. Further, because the team has been run for the past several years by a guy who will always be Brian Sabean’s favorite punch.
Comment by SC Dodger— June 17, 2011 #
Kemp and Kershaw not untouchable? Trade them for talent? Kemp and Kershaw are the players that you desperately hope you can end up with through some trade, the kinds of players we’ve been lacking for a long time. Kemp and Kershaw are our future; what’s the point of getting rid of our future? I’m utterly baffled by this comment. You think holding onto the two of them will prevent us from signing other players? How many good teams don’t have a big name player with a huge contract? And has that prevented them from getting other decent players? You know what is holding us back? 21 mil to Uribe, 33 mil to Lilly, 12 to Guerrier, 7 to Broxton, 12 to Kuroda, and however much we’re still paying Manny, Jones, and Pierre. How much value have we gotten out of those players this year?
Comment by Bip— June 18, 2011 #
This is a REALLY insightful post. I can’t say I agree with everything, but it did get me thinking about this in a different way.
Comment by Jeff— June 18, 2011 #
[...] Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness tries to figure out how much money Matt Kemp is making himself this season. [...]
Pingback by Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Kemp, Hanley, Francis, Soto | Forex News— June 24, 2011 #
He’s going to want 8yrs $250 mil and the Yankees will pay up.
Comment by Lenny Harris— June 24, 2011 #
Curiously, why does anyone think he wouldn’t go to the Yankees? Swisher is gone after this season and they will be saving his spot for Kemp. As a diehard Dodger fan it saddens me to say that we don’t have a chance in hell at signing him unless he gets injured next year
Comment by Lenny Harris— June 24, 2011 #
Wow, the only one out of nearly 100 comments to see the light. FACT is, the Yankees hold a 10.2 Million option on SWISH for 2012 which they will certainly execute if nothing better comes up (Impact Player) They will keep Swish, if he produces this year as he has the last two years (29 HR OPS .870 RBIs 85), He had a terrible (BABIP F-ed) start this year but has been picking it up the last few weeks. A 1 year deal for that kind of $$ with that production is a bargin for them while they plan for the future. Don’t be surprised to see KEMP go through ARB this winter when the Red Sox and Yankees have a spot open in RF unless LA offers him (at min) Crawford type $$. McCourt is in PANIC mode, unless MLB steps in, he will try selling his assets off to the highest bidders. Highly doubt they will keep both Kershaw and Kemp when there are so many holes and limited funds. My heart goes out to Dodger Fans.
Comment by Carl Joseph— June 25, 2011 #
[...] A week later, I looked at how much it might cost to sign Kemp to a long-term deal. I settled on starting with 5/$80m, a number which I admit seems quite low now, but remember that at the time he’d had just two good months after his disappointing 2010, and 1.5 years of team control remaining. I think it’s clear that it’s $100m+ at this point. [...]
Pingback by MSTI’s 2011 in Review: Center Field « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— October 20, 2011 #