The New & Improved James Loney
June 23, 2011 at 12:30 pm | Posted in James Loney | 39 Comments
On April 25 in Florida, James Loney went 1-4, with Jonathan Broxton blowing the lead in large part due to Jamey Carroll‘s ninth-inning fielding error. Loney’s line following the game fell to a putrid .170/.194/.213. While 24 games into the season may not seem like enough of a sample size to make judgements, Loney’s generally mediocre career and in particular his terrible 2010 second half helped to set off a barrage of criticism, both in these pages and elsewhere. On April 20, I argued at Baseball Prospectus that he would need to move on from Los Angeles in order to revive his career. If he was going to hit .170 all season, the thinking went, the question of whether he’d be non-tendered after the season would become moot, because we’d be wondering if he’d get DFA’d first. Though he’s remained the starting first baseman, as the season has progressed, he’s begun to lose playing time against lefties to Jerry Sands and Casey Blake.
The next day, Loney went 4-4 in a 4-2 loss to the Marlins. All of the hits were singles, of course – he hadn’t had an extra base hit in 20 days, and wouldn’t until a double in a 1-0 loss to Arizona on May 14 – but it was a start. Though by early May, I was pointing out that he was on pace to have a historically poor season for a first baseman, what we couldn’t have known at that point was that his turnaround had already begun.
Since that four-hit game on April 26, Loney has turned his season around, hitting .331/.388/.432 in 188 plate appearances, good for an .820 OPS with a nice 14/16 K/BB ratio. That OPS still isn’t great – it’d put him at 13th among qualified 1B if he’d had it for the full season - but it’s immensely better than his “among the worst in history” start to the season.
His improvement over the course of the season is even more clear when you break it down by month:
| Split | G | PA | H | 2B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April/March | 28 | 112 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 16 | .210 | .241 | .248 | .489 | .233 |
| May | 28 | 100 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 | .293 | .350 | .413 | .763 | .294 |
| June | 19 | 74 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 8 | .348 | .405 | .439 | .845 | .379 |
As I mentioned yesterday, he’s now got more hits in June than he did in March & April, despite there still being more than a week left in the month. So what caused this turnaround? I wish I could say. Could it have been a recovery from the sore left knee which bothered him in the spring? Sure, I suppose, though that doesn’t explain his second-half slide from last year. What about mechanics? I’m hardly a swing expert, but I compared video from this week and earlier in the season and couldn’t identify a specific change. That doesn’t mean there hasn’t been a subtle difference - this Jim Peltz LA Times story from last week notes that Loney had decided to stop messing with his approach.
After acknowledging recently that he frequently tinkered with his swing in search of improvement, the left-handed hitter said he was “settling into an approach” at the plate “and just trusting it.”
“You’re going to make outs here and there but hopefully I’ll have some consistent swings,” he said.
That was welcome news to Manager Don Mattingly, who said Loney “promised me the other day he was not going to change” his swing again.
He also appears to have become more selective at the plate, a fact which is reflected in his great K/BB mark since his resurgence began. On May 11, Jeff Sullivan at SBNation took a look at which hitters had changed their approach most since last season, and at the time he noted that no one had changed more than Loney, who had been swinging at 9.1% more pitches than he had in 2010. Where is he at now? Just 4.7% ahead of last year’s pace, so he’s been selective enough since May 11 to slice that number in half. There’s a lot that goes into being a successful big league hitter, but not swinging at bad pitches is a pretty good start.
So where do we go from here? We can’t expect his monthly production to continue trending upward as it has been, otherwise he’ll have an OPS of about 1.300 in August, which isn’t going to happen. I’m sure I’ll get a lot of disagreement here, but I look at Loney’s turnaround less in the sense of how it helps the Dodgers win in 2011, and more in the sense that he might actually be viable trade bait for someone at the deadline. You can argue with that all you want, but in order to even be in the playoff hunt, the Dodgers will need to go something like 56-30 over the remaining 86 games, and that’s a winning percentage which no team in baseball is even close to. This team isn’t going to the playoffs, and Loney isn’t someone I want to invest a large arbitration award to for 2012 if we can avoid it.
To even be able to say that Loney has value with a straight face, after months of wondering when he’d be benched, is a testament to just how good he’s been lately. So where might be some viable destinations for him, particularly keeping in mind the well-known facts that he’s far more effective away from Dodger Stadium? It’d have to be a team that’s both in the hunt and has a need for a platoon first baseman with a good glove, since he can’t hit lefties. While he’s under contract for next year, we’ll assume that teams who are out of the hunt won’t want to invest the 2012 money for a player with such a questionable track record.
Let’s limit our search to teams who are at least within two games of .500, so in the American League that eliminates the Blue Jays, Orioles, Twins, Royals, and Athletics. (Too bad, too, since the Twins, Orioles, and A’s could all badly use upgrades at the position.) The Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, and White Sox have little need for him, and the Rangers have Mitch Moreland, a lefty who is outperforming Loney.
That leaves four teams, each with easy-to-spot hinderances in a trade:
Rays. Tampa Bay has given most of their playing time at first base to Casey Kotchman, of all people, who was basically left for dead and is now on his fourth team since leaving the Angels in a 2008 trade. Kotchman, believe it or not, has been very good – .337/.395/.455 – and while it’s anyone’s guess if that can keep up, Loney isn’t an obvious upgrade right now. They’re both lefties, so there’s no obvious platoon, either, and Tampa is unlikely to take on salary. However, there’s been talk of Loney being connected with Tampa for some time, and their DH spot hasn’t been so productive it couldn’t be upgraded upon. Unlikely, but possible.
Mariners. Like Tampa, they don’t have an obvious need at first, since switch-hitting Justin Smoak is having a breakout season, and it’s anyone’s guess as to whether they’ll be able to stick around in the division a month from now when the trade season really heats up. However, they’re absolutely desperate for offense, since Smoak is the only even league-average bat they have. Loney could theoretically slot in as a DH/part-time 1B, but how hilarious would it be to have him in one of the more severe pitcher’s parks in baseball?
Indians. Cleveland is surprisingly leading the AL Central, and doing so despite less-than-adequate production from Matt LaPorta at first. In his three seasons in Ohio, his OBP marks have been .308, .306, .309, without enough of the power that would make that acceptable. Like the Mariners, I’m not sure I see them sticking around long enough to need to buy.
Angels. Right off the bat, the interleague rivals rarely trade with each other, so keep that in mind. With Kendrys Morales down for the count, they’ve been using Mark Trumbo at first base. Trumbo has just a .305 OBP, but he’s also the only Angel with double-digit homers, and he also doesn’t have much of a platoon split. Probably not going to happen.
In the National League, the Marlins, Cubs, Astros, and Padres are too far out to think they’ll be buyers. The Pirates are at .500, but few expect them to be buyers either. The Brewers, Reds, Rockies, and Phillies don’t need to upgrade at first base. The Giants and Diamondbacks could look for help at the position, but a trade within the division is unlikely. That also leaves four clubs:
Nationals. The Nationals have somehow snuck their way into a .500 record, and while I doubt they’ll be buyers, they’ve been known to surprise – and they’ve been linked to Loney before. Ever since Adam LaRoche was lost for the season, they have been playing Mike Morse – you know, the guy I badly wanted the Dodgers to go after last winter - at first base, and he’s only been one of the best hitters in baseball for the last month. That may not seem like a situation which would scream for Loney, but Morse could also be pushed back into an outfield corner, where the Nats have recieved inconsistent production. I’ll consider them a dark horse.
Mets. On a purely baseball level, this could make sense, since Ike Davis‘ productive season was cut short in May by an ankle injury which he may not retun at all from this year. In the meantime, they’ve been trying to get by with Dan Murphy and Lucas Duda, so Loney could represent an upgrade. Of course, the Mets have an ownership situation which is in nearly as rough shape as the Dodgers do, and at 36-38 they’re just as likely to be sellers themselves and say goodbye to Carlos Beltran & Francisco Rodriguez.
Cardinals. Normally, the thought of St. Louis going after a first baseman would be blasphemy, but that was before Albert Pujols injured his wrist, knocking him out until August. Wrist injuries have been known to slow down even the best hitters after their return, and then who knows where he signs in the winter? Loney could be a solid backup plan for the Cards, just half a game out in the Central.
Braves. I’m compelled to include them here just because I haven’t explicitly counted them out yet, but, nah. Freddie Freeman hasn’t been great, but nor has he been so poor that he’s a must-replace, and this club has larger concerns in the outfield and at second base.
As you can see, there’s no obvious option that stands out, though that could certainly change between now and July 31 – if the Dodgers even decide to move him. Let’s hear it in the comments – if Loney can keep up his value, where do you see him going?
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Loney seems like a good guy, so I’d like to see him go to a team in the playoff hunt…like Albuquerque.
Comment by jWerthfan1— June 23, 2011 #
Mike, you tweeted the other day saying that you were glad that he was playing well lately since he was turning himself from a definite non-tender into trade bait. But aren’t you afraid that Colletti will use this improvement as a reason to keep him for next year? I don’t think any of us can really trust Colletti. Also, is there any amount of improvement that Loney could have where you’d consider keeping him next year?
Comment by Brian R— June 23, 2011 #
You make a good point, and yes, I do think that Colletti could talk himself into it.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 23, 2011 #
He’s going to stay in a LA uniform and yes the blue one
Comment by john— June 23, 2011 #
I wouldn’t expect Loney to yield much of anything in return. But then again if two months of Casey Blake is worth five years of Carlos Santana maybe I’m wrong. Oh wait.. Ned can’t trade with himself and Steve Phillips isn’t a GM anymore.
Comment by Warren— June 23, 2011 #
Can Loney play outfield? Would starting him in left with Blake at 1st and Uribe at 3rd help his cause on the trade market? I doubt that, but I was just wondering. I don’t see anybody giving anything up for Loney. And if they non-tender him next year, big deal? What pieces could the Dodgers get from any contender for him other than some mediocre AA or AAA types?
I’m with you on Morse. He’d sure look good at either 1B or LF for the Dodgers.
Comment by game6ers— June 23, 2011 #
Loney’s not going to play the outfield. He almost killed himself playing there a few years ago, and besides, he’s a good defensive 1B.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 23, 2011 #
Too bad intra-division trades are so unlikely because the Giants could use Loney to platoon at 1B. Aubrey Huff has been hideous vs RHP, hitting .203, .269, .360. Hell, the Giants could use Furcal and Barajas too but the DL stints may have just destroyed their value. But who knows, with Ned’s SF connection, anything’s possible….just not likely since, after all, it makes sense and he’s, after all, Ned Colletti.
Comment by MaxPower— June 23, 2011 #
ugh, looking at his 07 season is so depressing. 15HR, 18 doubles, .331/.381/.538/.919 in 96 games
Comment by Joey E.— June 23, 2011 #
Mike, please tell me you’re working on a possible Broxton trade destination post. Assuming of course that he shows something from now until the deadline. I would like to read your take on the situation.
Comment by Justin— June 23, 2011 #
Yankees, Cards or Rangers for Brox
Comment by Joey E.— June 23, 2011 #
I would love to see Brox go to the Yankees for one of their 3 catching prospects.
Comment by Justin— June 23, 2011 #
There is just no way the Yankees would give up Montero for Broxton. I’d doubt the other two as well, unless Broxton is at his peak, and even then maybe not.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 23, 2011 #
True, I guess we’ll just have to sweeten the deal and include MacDougal. LOL!
Comment by Justin— June 23, 2011 #
I’d like get Chris Davis from the Rangers. He can play third or first.
Comment by Tommy Blackjack— June 23, 2011 #
Nah. Not yet, anyway. He’s got no value until he comes back strong and healthy, and that’s not a guarantee.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 23, 2011 #
I don’t see what’s so improbable about an Indians trade. It’s true that they’re getting great performances out of players you wouldn’t expect, but it’s not like they’re barely holding off hard-charging powerhouses; the Tigers have the second-best run differential in the division and they’re at +11, with everyone else in the red. And if the Indians do make a deal, it likely won’t be one that sells off a bunch of their best prospects for a big star, because as a small-market team they’ll need those prospects for future success. So I think they’d definitely be in the market for Loney, particularly if LaPorta’s injured ankle still bothers him.
Comment by SamL— June 23, 2011 #
I think one situation could develop that would include the Brewers. If they believe that Fielder is gone at the end of the season they may make a trade to get something of value for him now instead of waiting for draft picks. If that happened they would need a player like Loney to fill the gap. On a team line the Brewers Loney’s lack of power is not as crippling.
Comment by west coast ram— June 23, 2011 #
I could see the brewers as a good possibility. To me I think Loney will be traded (if he is) in the winter rather than mid season. I think this because as MSTI pointed out there is no team he really helps out a lot mid year. but after the prince and albert dust settles he may have value.
Comment by Gillbert— June 24, 2011 #
The Cardinals are probably out of the mix, with Lance Berkman filling in for Pujols. With Holliday, Rasmus, and Jay, they are probably happy with Berkman at first base.
Comment by SamAdams— June 23, 2011 #
Hey msti what do you think it would take for the Dodgers to aquire Cervelli or Nova?
Kuroda? Broxton? Caey Blake?
Comment by Juan— June 23, 2011 #
Why would you want either??
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 23, 2011 #
If McCourt and Colletti are still in place at the trade deadline, are we better off hoping they hold onto the current players? Do we even have any examples of Ned making moves selling off players in the past? Pierre for Ely/Link & TOOTBLAN for Hawksworth is all I can think of at the moment. Both of those were moves that were a result of his poor judgment as a buyer and I can’t bring myself to forget that. But would it be better to get the draft picks for White rather than let Colletti mess with the team? Especially with the players we have to trade and their lack of value right now due to injuries. Kuroda seems like the only guy who the Dodgers may get true value for…assuming we had a fairly savvy GM/owner in place, which we don’t. If the Dodgers are in fact seized, who then decides these types of things? Would it be a temporarily appointed exec and Colletti? If so, his involvement still worries me.
Comment by Wil— June 23, 2011 #
BTW, I realize Loney doesn’t fall into this group seeing as he still has another year of arbitration left, but I was just wondering Mike’s and everyone’s thoughts on this topic.
Comment by Wil— June 23, 2011 #
I’m with you, until Ned is out of the driver’s seat, I’m not comfortable making any moves. I imagine other GMs licking their chops when Colletti comes to the table.
Comment by BeGone McColletti— June 24, 2011 #
Does Milton Bradley for Ethier count as selling off? It wasn’t a re-building move, it was a removing the clubhouse cancer move, but it was still selling an established veteran for a top prospect. It was also the best move of Colletti’s tenure here.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— June 24, 2011 #
Well I’m not that high on Cervelli but he had a decent year’ last year. .359 OBP, he’s about 26 and he’s thought of highly defensively.His OPS of .694 last year is about the same as Barajas’ career OPS. Plus, he was injured, probably still rusty and hardly plays. Nova is a guy I like out of the pen throwing 96MPH, allowing less than 1hr/9 and the fact we can send him down if he struggles also helps.
Comment by Juan— June 23, 2011 #
A .694 OPS is hardly something that makes a guy a trade target. If you look at his 2010, he was great for three weeks or so and godawful for the rest of the year. I know far too many Yankee fans who absolutely despise him.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 23, 2011 #
How about Nova?
Comment by Juan— June 23, 2011 #
Nova’s fine, I’d take him, I just don’t see him as someone who should be specifically targeted.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— June 24, 2011 #
I can see Nats and Mets in on Loney. Cards and Rays may be a stretch.
Comment by Tommy Blackjack— June 23, 2011 #
With Brandon Belt and Aubrey Huff, the Giants aren’t going to be looking for help at first. They’ve consistently said that Huff is their starting 1B, and they’re patient with him in spite of his season-long struggles (though he seems to be gradually turning his season around). So yeah, they definitely aren’t going to trade for a 1B, especially Loney (considering that, as you mentioned, he’s in the same division).
Comment by Splashing Pumpkins— June 23, 2011 #
T twins 1st base just opened up due to neck injury. he is out at least till August.
Comment by Gillbert— June 24, 2011 #
[...] James Loney’s value to the team is being discussed here, there and everywhere, the Dodgers who would bring the most value in trade are these: Jonathan [...]
Pingback by The importance of Ned Colletti - Dodger Blue Baseball Blog - The Orange County Register— June 24, 2011 #
For me, the most surprising thing about Loney’s hitting resurgence has been that he has done a lot of it at home where he is a career .267 hitter. In May and June, he has hit .337 at home (28 for 83) with 2 HRs, 4 doubles, and only 9 Ks.
On the season, he is hitting lefties at a .190 clip (12 for 63) and righties at .300 (60 for 200). Thus, we should platoon him with Sands the rest of the season. It would get sabds some ABs and help him transition to 1B next year. Trayvon will take over in LF eventually (and maybe switch with Kemp at some point), so Sands can go to 1B.
As to which team might trade for him, I’m thinking Houston or Texas since he’s from there, and he could probably do some damage in those parks.
Comment by Gregory Russell— June 24, 2011 #
Yeah but Texas and Houston both have young 1st base guys who are up and coming and hitting better than Loney…..
Comment by Jon#7#22— June 25, 2011 #
Although division trades are usually not common, there have been deals in the past with Arizona and so I could see Arizona, if they stay in the hunt, possibly having some interest in Loney. He’s always hit well at Chase Field and the d-backs seem to have a need, although I’m not familiar with their farm system.
Comment by Jon#7#22— June 25, 2011 #
[...] how bad his season would be on a historical scale? Yeah, after a dead cat bounce in June – which I dutifully praised him for – his July was worse than [...]
Pingback by Apparently, Yesterday Was a Turning Point for James Loney… « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— August 4, 2011 #
[...] again, on June 23: Since that four-hit game on April 26, Loney has turned his season around, hitting .331/.388/.432 [...]
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