Daily Archives: June 28, 2011

Believe It Or Not, Ted Lilly’s Problem Isn’t Homers

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Warning: you may want to take small children and the elderly out of the room before viewing the logs of Ted Lilly‘s last three starts.

Date Opp Rslt IP H R BB SO HR GSc SB CS 2B
Jun 17 HOU L,3-7 5.1 8 6 2 4 0 32 2 0 3
Jun 22 DET L,5-7 4.2 6 6 1 8 3 35 0 0 1
Jun 28 MIN L,4-6 4.2 9 6 0 0 1 35 4 0 2
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Wow, it’s almost like his completely unsustainable run after joining the Dodgers last year… was completely unsustainable. Here’s the thing, though; though I was against his three-year deal in the offseason and am even more so now, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that he’s not soley to blame here. (Except for the stolen bases, that is, which are getting embarrassing.) Heading into tonight, his 1.5 HR/9 was exactly the same as it was last year, and is essentially the same as his career 1.4/9 mark. Though he didn’t record a walk or a whiff tonight, the first time in his career he’s gone at least four innings without doing either, his 3.78 K/BB entering the game was identical to 2010 (3.77) and a good deal better than his career average (2.57). His velocity (a tick under 87) is the same as last year, as is his percentage of fastballs thrown (56%).

So what’s going on? Well, it appears to be two issues. First, despite the fact that I mentioned his K/BB hasn’t changed, he’s definitely missing fewer bats. He’s striking out more than a man less per nine innings, and his swinging strike percentage has sunk from 9.5% in 2009 to 8.9% in 2010 to 7.5% this year – and that last number is sure to fall further when tonight’s game is factored in. He’s walking fewer than he ever has as well, so that’s how the K/BB stays lower.

If you’re striking out fewer, you’re relying more on your defense, and that’s where we run into our second problem. According to Baseball Prospectus‘ “Defensive Efficiency”, the Dodgers currently rank 28th in MLB as far as turning balls into outs. So you’re seeing exactly what you’d expect to see when you have a pitcher who isn’t striking people out, and isn’t getting support from his defense. The problem is that I’m not sure how we see either of those items changing any time soon, particularly since Lilly is still signed up for his age-36 and age-37 seasons the next two years.

Otherwise, the offense was generally quiet outside of a brief burst in the 5th inning. It probably didn’t affect the outcome of the game, but I have to question Don Mattingly’s pinch-hitting decisions in the final inning, with Aaron Miles (who had hit his first homer since 2008 earlier), A.J. Ellis, and Jamey Carroll coming up. Ellis had a hit and as we all know, has excellent on-base skills, but Mattingly sent up Trent Oeltjen in his place. Fine, I suppose; Oeltjen is a lefty with more power and had a great game yesterday. The Aussie drew a walk, and with one out Carroll stepped to the plate… except, not.

Instead of the guy with the .372 OBP who had already gotten on base twice tonight, the guy who just this afternoon GM Ned Colletti touted as a deserving All-Star, Mattingly chose to send up Dioner Navarro, presumably because there’s some sort of federal law that requires Navarro to bat in the 9th with the game on the line. (I’m joking, but only partially.) I get that Navarro could hit lefty against Matt Capps, but you’re not going to sell me on him as a power threat (three dingers over last two years) or any kind of offensive force (he is hitting .168, remember). Navarro, predictably, topped a ball that went all of about 50 feet and was thrown out. Carroll was skipped for that. Without Carroll, Tony Gwynn walked, but Casey Blake grounded out to end the game.

I’ve generally been a big fan of Don Mattingly, but I will never understand his fascination with Dioner Navarro.

Frank McCourt Gets a Stay of Execution (Updated)

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Bill Shaikin explains:

Dodgers owner Frank McCourt can use the financing he obtained this week to pay the team’s immediate bills, attorneys for the Dodgers and Major League Baseball agreed Tuesday.

The U.S. bankruptcy court scheduled a July 20 hearing at which MLB can ask to replace McCourt’s financing with money furnished by the league.

When the Dodgers filed for bankruptcy on Monday, McCourt said he had obtained a $150-million loan to cover the team’s expenses during the proceedings and remain in control of the team for now. That loan carried an interest rate of at least 10% and a $4.5-million fee.

On Tuesday, MLB proposed its own financing, with an interest rate of 7% and no fee.

The parties agreed to postpone consideration of the MLB financing until July 20. If the MLB financing is approved, the $4.5-million fee tied to McCourt’s financing would be cut to $250,000. In the meantime, McCourt can use his financing to pay the Dodgers’ bills.

The parties also agreed to permanently delete language in McCourt’s financing agreement stipulating the auction of the Dodgers’ cable television rights by a certain date. However, McCourt’s long-term plan for recapitalizing the Dodgers still depends upon the bankruptcy court approving a rights deal over MLB objections.

This may not be the analysis you’re coming here looking for, but I readily admit that I have no idea what this means in the big picture. (For the record, neither does Dan Kaplan of the SportsBusinessJournal, which makes me feel a little better.) Short term, it means that the fun speculation over whether McCourt would make payroll on June 30 is no longer an issue, now that both sides have agreed to let McCourt take the $150m loan – you know, the one that Hardball Talk’s Craig Calcaterra referred to as ”a crappy loan” with “bad terms”. 

This is good news because… well, that’s the part I’m unclear about. It keeps McCourt in power for at least another several weeks or more, which is bad. It allows him to take yet another loan that trades long-term health for short-term gain (pending, of course, MLB’s July 20th application to replace it with their own loan), which is definitely bad. It buys him time to continue trying to secure long-term financing, which is extremely bad.

I suppose if there’s a benefit for MLB here, it’s that the money supposedly can only be used for Dodger finances, not personal expenses, and it avoids, for now, the  further lawsuits which would certainly occur if they had to step in and actively take control due to a missed payroll. Perhaps not standing in the way of this loan allows them some leverage for the next time McCourt accuses them of having a pre-determined agenda to push him out of power, and that may come in handy when McCourt attempts to get the court to overturn MLB’s rejection and approve the Fox deal.

So the takeaway here, at least from my completely non-expert view… is that we’re all on ice for another three weeks, at the very least. McCourt will make payroll, both sides will dig in against each other, and we’ll be in the middle again, cringing daily with each veiled (or not-so-veiled) legal threat from a highly-paid attorney.

 Uh, great?

I think Gary at 7thinningsketch has the right idea…

Update: Tim Brown at Yahoo, in a series of tweets, provides some more detail…

MLB will move within days to have its monitors — Schieffer and Allen — re-installed at Dodger Stadium. Also, will request a trustee…

Sources: MLB very happy with events today in Delaware. Most important thing to delete media rights auction. Figure out rest in 3 weeks.

Short term, McCourt gets $60 million to run franchise thru July 20. MLB not unhappy that’s not its money.

Now I understand this better. McCourt can’t auction off the TV rights, which was a big possibility for him, and is therefore dependent on the court to rule in his favor. Who knew that in order to be a baseball writer I’d need to forget about the OPS and focus on the JD?