2011 June « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness

Brett Myers Dominates Dodgers

June 17, 2011 at 9:51 pm | Posted in Ted Lilly | 18 Comments

The problem tonight was not that the Dodgers lost to the Houston Astros, the worst team in baseball by both record and run differential. Even a lousy team like this year’s Astros will win something like 65 games. It happens.

It’s not even that they got completely overwhelmed by by Brett Myers, who set down 17 in a row at one point despite entering the game with a 5.03 ERA and a league-leading 18 homers allowed. It’s also not just that Ted Lilly‘s final line (five earned runs on eight hits) was ugly, because he was doing fine until allowing five hits in the sixth inning.

The problem is that they were boring. This was almost an utterly unwatchable game from the beginning to nearly the end, not that there were a lot of people in the park to witness it anyway, judging by the empty seats masquerading as the announced 35,000+ in attendance. After scoring in the first inning on a Dee Gordon walk (his first) and hits by Aaron Miles & James Loney, the Dodgers… well, that was it, really. Loney singled again in the seventh, and was immediately wiped out by a Juan Uribe double play. Gordon reached again in the ninth on a Brett Wallace error, and came home on an Andre Ethier homer (his first in 19 games) to make the final 7-3. Myers finished his complete game on 97 pitches, which as Eric Stephen reports, is the first time the Dodgers have suffered a complete game loss at home on less than 100 pitches since the immortal Jason Marquis did it in 2009.

After four losses in a row, the Dodgers are now nine games under .500, the most they’ve been since ending the 2005 season at 71-91. At right: the 2011 season.

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I didn’t really weigh in on the McCourt case much today, but I think it’s largely much ado about nothing. The settlement explicitly says that it only takes effect if Bud Selig approves the FOX contract, which he’s almost certainly not going to do, so this “settlement” could mean little. All that business about an August 4th court date to decide if the team is Frank’s or split 50/50? It’s almost certainly not going to take place. If anything, this just unites the McCourts in what’s an almost inevitable lawsuit against MLB; Frank McCourt, by all accounts, cannot make the June 30th payroll without the cash influx from the contract, and with the issue of Jamie objecting to the deal no longer a concern, Frank will contend that Selig is actively hurting the team. Then he’ll sue MLB, and this will be tied up in the courts for decades to come.

For more, Bill Shaikin has a great Q&A, and don’t miss Steve Dilbeck pointing out that Frank’s assertion that none of the FOX money would go towards his divorce is basically a blatant lie.

How Much Money Is Matt Kemp Earning Himself?

June 17, 2011 at 8:22 am | Posted in Matt Kemp | 84 Comments

Before 2010, Matt Kemp avoided arbitration by signing a two-year deal worth about $11 million. That deal expires at the end of this season, and Kemp will be arbitration-eligible for a final time in 2012 before reaching free agency at the end of next year. Kemp, of course, is putting up a season that looks more and more like it’ll be one of the best in Dodger history, as he’s on pace to hit 46 homers and steal 37 bases to go along with his .335/.420/.638 line. As the season goes on and the pennant race becomes a more and more distant dream, his contract situation is going to become a hot conversation piece. You can bet that he won’t be settling for two years and $11m again, but just how much money has he made himself with his performance this year?

Any conversation like this must immediately be prefaced with the usual disclaimer about deadbeat owner Frank McCourt and the uncertain financial situation in which the Dodgers find themselves. McCourt’s holding on to the ownership of this club on a bi-weekly basis as he scrambles to make each payroll, so it’s impossible to know what the situation will be when the season ends four months from now. Perhaps McCourt has managed to hang on until then. Maybe MLB will have taken over. It’s unlikely, but possible, that a sale could be in motion by then – or it could be some other scenario we can’t even dream about yet. None of that is going to change the fact that Matt Kemp is an extremely valuable asset who is going to get his money, so let’s pretend for the moment that we’re fans of a real team with responsible owners, and not the disaster we find ourselves in. (Additionally: minutes before I was to post this, I saw that Bill Shaikin is reporting that the McCourts have come to a settlement. We know none of the details yet, but Shaikin, Molly Knight, and Josh Fisher are usually nails on this story, so I won’t let the unknown there delay this post.)

Jon Heyman recently reported that Ned Colletti had initial conversations with Kemp’s agent, Dave Stewart, about a long-term deal, though clearly nothing has come of it yet. Despite Stewart’s well-publicized criticism of the Dodgers last season, that clearly seems to have blown over with the new on-field regime, and he and Colletti did just work together to sign Chad Billingsley to a deal earlier this year. I think every Dodger fan would like to see a long-term deal worked out, but let’s start small first.

What if Kemp goes to arbitration?

The record award for a position player in his third year of arbitration was the $15.5m that Prince Fielder got from the Brewers this past winter. Like Kemp, Fielder was coming off of a two-year deal and had not previously been to arbitration, though his deal had been for $18m, more than Kemp’s $11m. Arbitration panels are notorious for relying upon “old school” stats rather than more advanced methods, so we’ll stick with that here. In 2010, Fielder hit .261 with 32 homers and 83 RBI, scoring 94 runs. Kemp is on pace to top all of those marks this year. As if those numbers didn’t give him enough of an advantage over Fielder, he’s also on pace to steal the 37 bases, while playing a much more valuable defensive position. While Kemp is certainly going to be headed into the process with a better season in his pocket than Fielder, he’s also coming off a smaller contract and an uneven 2010. Those two factors mean that he may not break Fielder’s record, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see him come close. I could see Kemp getting anywhere from $13m-$15m in arbitration.

What if Kemp signs a long-term deal?

This assumes that Kemp wants to sign such a deal with the Dodgers. Outwardly he’s said all the right things, but we can’t really know for sure how frustrated he is with the current mess at the top and lack of talent around him, whether he’s enjoyed hitting on the road so much that he’d rather be away from Dodger Stadium more often, or whether he’d just prefer to be nearer to his Oklahoma roots. For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll figure he’ll want to stay. But at what cost? Let’s compare him to the two outfielders who signed $100m deals last winter, Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford. Like Kemp, each can kind-of sort-of play center field, but are much better situated in an outfield corner. (Age and stats for Werth and Crawford are through 2010, Kemp is to-date.)

Kemp compares favorably to both, and don’t forget that he still has the remainder of this season to complete; at his current pace he’ll overake Werth in WAR and lead all three in home runs. He’s the youngest of the three, and will likely be coming off the best season of any of them. On the surface, your initial thought might be, “he’s going to get seven years and $130m”.

But while it’s fun to compare him to Werth and Crawford, it’s not entirely accurate. Each were free agents, able to play multiple teams off each other for the highest offer, and Kemp will not have that luxury until after 2012. His negotiating ability is somewhat limited by the fact that he’s still under Dodger control for another year and can’t go out to speak with other teams. So a more accurate comparison would be to players who have signed extensions with their teams that bought out a year or two of arbitration… and that’s where we run into problems.

After doing some research, I’ve found that it’s incredibly difficult to find a good comparison to Kemp. Players of his youth and talent rarely reach the open market, and often don’t even get as close to it as he will. (Crawford made it because everyone knew the cash-strapped Rays couldn’t afford the extension; the Phillies have so many other big-ticket deals that they couldn’t squeeze Werth in as well. Fielder and possibly Albert Pujols are likely to be good case studies this winter.) When I put the question to Twitter last night, looking for extensions that had been signed at a similar point in a player’s career, I got a lot of good suggestions, but none that were close enough. Evan Longoria signed his extension about a week into his MLB career. Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, Dustin Pedroia, Carlos Gonzalez and Justin Upton each signed after roughly two full seasons. Jay Bruce, Nick Markakis and Ryan Zimmerman signed before their first trips to arbitration. Ryan Braun signed an eight-year deal in his second season, then had a bizarre 5/$105m extension added which doesn’t even kick in until 2016. Kemp will have over five years of service time when this season ends – just one more of team control - and that makes these calculations difficult.

The closest comparables I was able to find were Troy Tulowitzki and Ryan Howard, who each recently signed $100m+ deals to stay with their current clubs. Neither comp is perfect, for reasons I’ll state in a second, but for the moment let’s compare Kemp’s numbers to theirs. (Age and stats for Tulowitzki and Howard are through 2010, Kemp is to-date.)

Tulowitzki, like Kemp, made his debut in the summer of 2006. But he’s also a quality defensive shortstop, and hadn’t gone year-to-year like Kemp; after just over one full season, he signed a 6/$31m contract following 2007. When he signed his mammoth 10/$157.5m deal after 2010, it replaced the final three years of that deal. Howard’s situation is even more complicated (and controversial). He’s older than both and plays a less valuable position, and won a $10m contract in his first year of arbitration in 2008, then signed a 3/$54m deal to avoid going to arbitration a second time in 2009. That deal would have bought out his arbitration years and made him a free agent after this season… except that in April of 2010, the Phillies tacked on a ludicrous 5/$125m extension that doesn’t even kick in until 2012. If Kemp keeps up his current pace, he’ll top Tulo’s WAR and would come close to matching Howard’s.

All of which is a long way of saying, there hasn’t been a recent example like Kemp to point to. If he decides to play out his last year and hit the market, and has another good year in 2012, he’s likely looking at a massive $100m+ contract somewhere. If he signs a deal with the Dodgers, he’ll still get a hefty fee, but without the open market at play he’d probably have to leave some money on the table in exchange for avoiding the risk that would come with an injury or poor performance next season.

So let’s spitball this. It seems clear that if he finishes this season the way he started it, Kemp’s value on the open market could be between $15m-$20m a year. (I’m doing my best to avoid the fact that Howard got $25m a year well into his 30s, which is so insane I can’t even talk about it.) If he signed with the Dodgers (again, acting like we follow a real team) following 2011, he’d probably get on the lower end of that because he’s not a free agent and would pass up the 2012 risk. He’s also young enough that he might not want a 7-8 year deal like we’ve seen here, figuring that he could sign another big deal at around 31. So let’s start the bidding at… 5 years, $80m. Would you do that? Would he?

Listless Dodgers Fall Further Behind

June 15, 2011 at 3:25 pm | Posted in Chad Billingsley | 22 Comments

This should be a picture of sad Billingsley, but I'd prefer to look at acrobatic Dee right now.

For the fourth time in five starts, Chad Billingsley allowed more than four earned runs, and the Dodgers were unable to avoid a sweep at the hands of Cincinnati. Jon Weisman over at DodgerThoughts (before the game was even over, no less!) summed up Billingsley’s troubles succinctly:

Chad Billingsley through the end of May: 75 1/3 innings, 71 strikeouts, 100 baserunners, 3.46 ERA.

Chad Billingsley in June, including today’s game: 13 2/3 innings, nine strikeouts, 43 baserunners, 11.19 ERA.

This is an issue that requires an in-depth look. Unfortunately, you’re not getting that today, because who really wants to think more about this team right now? I can’t be the only one looking forward to a 48-hour break from Dodger baseball, right?

As usual, any semblance of offense came from the top half, as Dee Gordon, Jamey Carroll, Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp combined for six of the eight Dodger hits, with another – also, seemingly, as usual – coming from the pitcher, Billingsley. (Aaron Miles collected the final hit as a pinch-hitter in the 8th.)

At 31-39 after the sweep, the Dodgers are eight games under .500 and 8.5 games out of first, pending San Francisco’s date with Arizona tonight. As I noted last night, by losing today they’re further under .500 than they’ve been since July 26, 2006. How long ago was that? The infield that day was Olmedo Saenz (1B), Willy Aybar (2B), Rafael Furcal (SS), and Cesar Izturis (3B). That’s right – it was so long ago that Rafael Furcal was actually playing in games. It should, of course, be noted that the 2006 club did rebound to make the playoffs.

See Dee Run

June 14, 2011 at 10:13 pm | Posted in Dee Gordon | 42 Comments

(Will all of this crash your browser? Uh, possibly. Apologies if so. If it does, then add “your computer” to the long list of things that cannot keep up with Dee Gordon.)

See Dee score the first Dodger run:

See Dee start a double play with a backhand stab:

See Dee put down a lousy bunt but use his speed to essentially create a double:

See Dee steal third:

Sure, all of that masks the fact that the Dodgers lost again, with a solid one-run effort from Clayton Kershaw obscured by the usual lack of offense. (That’s now 35 times in which they’ve scored three runs or fewer.) Yes, the bullpen again did no favors, allowing two runs which proved to be the difference, though at least Mike MacDougal finally allowed a run that counts against his own ledger. And it’s true that the loss drops them to seven games under .500, just a game out of last place, and if they lose tomorrow’s matinee, it’ll be the first time they fall more than seven games underwater since July of 2006 – nearly five years.

All of the above is true, but who wants to talk about that? Dee Gordon‘s electricity is providing us with a reason to tune in each night. There’s plenty of time to talk about all the rest of it; for the moment, that’s good enough.

Dee Gordon Is Never Boring

June 14, 2011 at 8:41 am | Posted in Chad Billingsley, Dee Gordon, Hiroki Kuroda, Matt Guerrier | 28 Comments

Dee Gordon may be a lot of things, but boring will never be one of them. When he was recalled last week, I noted that he’d electrify us all with his game-changing speed and highlight-reel plays in the field, but that he was extremely raw and with those assets would come miscues, particularly on defense. That’s exactly what happened last night; as Jon Weisman at DodgerThoughts and Tony Jackson at ESPNLA describe more fully, Gordon was speeding around the bases for a triple, beating a perfect throw home on a sacrifice fly, effortlessly making outstanding defensive plays… and booting a relatively simple grounder to start the 7th inning, an inning in which the Reds scored four to put the game away. That came after a play in the second inning in which Gordon mistimed his approach to the bag on a sure double play ball, and only got one out; with the runner safe on second, the Reds ended up getting their first run of the game later in the inning. This loss isn’t just on Gordon, as the bullpen faltered, Aaron Miles also made an error, and the collective offensive output of Gordon’s teammates was five singles. Still, if we’re going to appreciate his energy, we’re going to have to accept these mistakes as they come.

Getting back to the relief corps, as if the Dodgers needed more bullpen concerns (particularly with the news that Vicente Padilla requires neck surgery and is likely lost for the season), Matt Guerrier has been struggling terribly of late. It’s no secret that I disliked the three-year deal he was given (multiyear deals to non-elite middle relievers almost never work out), but I accepted that he’d be a decent addition to the pen, and over the first two months he was relatively reliable as the group around him changed almost daily. But over his last four games, Guerrier’s been quite ineffective each time out:

Rk	Date	Opp	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	3B
30	Jun 7	PHI	0.2	0	1	1	1	0	0	3	0
31	Jun 8	PHI	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	0	5	1
32	Jun 11	COL	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	0	6	0
33	Jun 13	CIN	0.2	1	2	2	2	0	1	5	0
			33.0	32	17	16	15	24	1	144

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/14/2011.

Kenley Jansen is eligible to come off the disabled list and may or may not need one more rehab assignment, making him likely to return to the club this week. Guerrier could use the help, as he’s appeared in 33 games, 7th most in baseball, and the last few have been ugly. The bullpen has been held together with duct tape and string so far, and the club really can’t afford another issue right now.

The failure of the bullpen and the inability of the offense to overcome it really has to make you feel for Hiroki Kuroda, as Steve Dilbeck points out at the LA Times blog. Kuroda was once 5-3, but has now been hung with five consecutive losses to push him down to 5-8. On the surface, it sounds like he’s struggled, but we know better; the Dodgers have scored eight total runs for him in those five games. While he deserves his share of the blame for the first two, games in which he allowed four and five earned runs, he’s allowed a grand total of five earned over his last three starts. All of them go in the books as losses, despite his season xFIP of 3.50.

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Over at the Dingers blog, Seth was lucky enough to sit down with Chad Billingsley for a great look at pitch sequencing. Billingsley was already one of our favorite pitchers, but it appears he has at least some familiarity with sabermetric principles. Well worth the click and the read.

Monday Roundup: The Law Firm of Miles, Wade, Loney & Gould

June 13, 2011 at 10:22 am | Posted in Aaron Miles, Cory Wade, Garret Gould, James Loney, Manny Ramirez, Trayvon Robinson | 51 Comments

I was a little off the grid this weekend thanks to a wedding and other family commitments, and there’s so much going on right now that I could probably write six different posts about it. In the interest of expediency, let’s try to hit as much as of it as I can right here.

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ESPN’s Molly Knight brings us news that’s relevant to the only thing more important than winning baseball games: being rid of Frank McCourt. But this isn’t the usual business about Frank’s court fight with Jamie, or even about his fight with Bud Selig and MLB. This story has a quite unexpected hero: Manny Ramirez.

We’ve long known that the Dodgers owe Manny a nice chunk of deferred salary both this year and in years to come, but what’s noteworthy here is the amount and the timing: the Dodgers owe Manny a full payment of $8.33m by June 30.

Here’s how Knight lays out the June responsibilities:

$9ish million for June 15, $9ish for June 30, $8.33 for Manny.

Remember, every two weeks we’ve been wondering if McCourt would make payroll. He had to borrow from sponsors to meet the May 30 payroll, and while he’s reportedly ready to make the June 15 bill, that’s yet to be confirmed. Manny’s bill is essentially a third payroll responsibility for June, and it’s anyone’s guess where McCourt thinks he’s going to come up with that kind of money.

Imagine if, after all of the garbage spewed at Manny (much of it deserved, but certainly not all) by the media and some fans, that he was the one who finally sank Frank McCourt? I’d start measuring him for a statue, if that’s the case.

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The Rays have released ex-Dodger Cory Wade from their AAA affiliate in Durham, NC. (They also added ex-Dodger Lance Cormier to Durham, which, ha.) Wade was released not because of his performance, which has been excellent in Durham, but because of a logjam in the Tampa bullpen – and because Wade had a June 15th opt-out.

You probably remember that Wade was a surprisingly effective reliever for the 2008 Dodgers, before spending most of the next two years being injured and ineffective. (You can probably search the archives here and find reference to me pinning that blame on his overuse by Joe Torre in 2008.) After shoulder surgery last season, he was quietly signed to a minor-league deal by Tampa this winter… and he’s been very good. In 36.2 AAA innings, he’s allowed just five earned runs with a 34/6 K/BB, and Rays fans aren’t happy that he was let go.

Wade is a 28-year-old relief pitcher and while he’s no longer a “prospect”, he looked like a player that could help in the Rays’ bullpen this season. After having shoulder surgery last season, Wade was doing very well in Triple-A this year, striking out 8.4 batters per nine, while walking a miniscule 1.5 batters per nine. He’d allowed four homeruns over his 36 innings pitched, but still, he had a 1.23 ERA and 3.34 FIP — he was darn good. Not only that, but Wade had frequently worked two innings at a time, making him a prime candidate to serve as a long man for the Rays.

I’m beginning to wonder what sort of compromising pictures Andy Sonnanstine must have in his possession in order to stick on the roster instead of Wade. Sonnanstine is getting lit up every time he takes the mound, posting a 6.06 ERA and 7.52 FIP, and he simply doesn’t look like a major-league caliber pitcher anymore.

Why, Friedman, why? Do you enjoy subjecting your fans to the horrors of watching Sonny pitch? Are you afraid of those pictures from the playoff celebration last year getting out? Because man, I would have liked to see Cory Wade get a shot.

Other than Sonnanstine, the Rays bullpen has been effective, so the fact that he couldn’t get a shot isn’t a black mark against Wade. (As for Sonnanstine, Tampa has been overly devoted to him for some time, and Rays fans and bloggers have been bemoaning his roster spot for months.)

So getting to the obvious question – why shouldn’t the Dodgers go and try to give him a shot? I’m sure that he won’t be unemployed for long, so I’m sure he’ll end up in the big leagues soon for someone, and why not the Dodgers? It’s not like it’d be hard to make room in the bullpen. Matt Guerrier and Blake Hawksworth aren’t going anywhere, but Ramon Troncoso, Josh Lindblom, Scott Elbert and Javy Guerra all have minor-league options, and Elbert & Troncoso just got lit up in Colorado. There’s also Mike MacDougal, who would have to be DFA’d, but who has done nothing to live up to his shiny 2.01 ERA.

(Update: Wade signed with the Yankees. Of course he did. Oh well.)

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James Loney‘s grand slam over the weekend in Colorado was his second career salami, with the previous one… also coming in Colorado. This isn’t the first time I’ve noted his brutal home/road splits (or the second… or the third…), but the success he’s found in Denver is particularly noteworthy.

I	Split	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
	LAD-Dodger Stad	1316	119	313	55	6	20	171	112	167	.265	.327	.372	.699
	COL-Coors Fld	178	26	53	12	1	8	49	14	18	.325	.376	.558	.935

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/13/2011.

I’ll be the first to tell you hitting is about more than just home runs, but of all the numbers there, that’s what stands out to me the most. Loney has more than seven times as many plate appearances in Dodger Stadium than he does in Coors Field… and just barely more than twice as many homers. Dating back to last season, three of Loney’s last five homers have come in Colorado, and even one of the others, against Jason Hammel on May 30, came against the Rockies, though at home. (The fifth came against Florida’s Javier Vazquez, possibly the worst starting pitcher in baseball right now.) When Loney gets non-tendered, as we all believe he will, just wait for the Rockies to snap him up. It’s not a perfect fit, since Todd Helton is also a lefty and having a great season, but Helton’s going to be 38 next year – and the Rockies have found a way to squeeze lefty first baseman Jason Giambi onto the roster this year anyway. I look forward to the day when Loney is both not a Dodger and tormenting us from afar.

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In the comments yesterday, I made an off-hand remark that Aaron Miles has the emptiest .300 average in team history, and it’s true. He never walks, and he hits for no power whatsoever. That’s why his OPS is a subpar .658. I didn’t say that meaning to bash Miles, but that upset a lot of people who felt I wasn’t giving Miles enough credit. So let me clear that up by saying Miles has been far more than I’d ever expected. His .300 may not be indicative of much by itself, but it’s about 150 points higher than I thought he’d give us. When I give out midseason grades next month, he’s almost certainly going to get a B+ or higher. As a multipositional, switch-hitting backup, he’s been something of a pleasant surprise. You’ll notice that I haven’t been making calls to have him DFA’d or replaced.

The problem here, which is not on Miles, is that he’s not serving as the 5th or 6th infielder. Due to the rash of injuries, he’s been an everyday starter. His 190 PA is fifth most on the team, behind Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Loney, and Jamey Carroll. An empty .300 from a bench player is great, but it’s a problem from a starter. Again, that’s not on Miles; he didn’t create the injury situation, and all he’s done is help fill the holes while playing better than expected. That also doesn’t mean he’s someone we should want to see every night.

Tony Jackson of ESPNLA looked at the infield situation recently, and his takeaway was while Don Mattingly seemingly prefers Juan Uribe and Casey Blake to play every day at 2B and 3B around Loney and Dee Gordon, that Carroll and Miles have outplayed the two enough that they should be playing everyday at 2B and 3B. Jackson’s argument is that Blake & Uribe get preferred treatment because of their salaries, and he’s probably not far off there.

I understand where he’s coming from – after all, I’ve been saying for two years that counting on Blake to be an everyday player this year was a mistake and that the Uribe contract was a terrible idea – but I can’t say I totally agree, and that’s partly because I’m more focused on the future than the present.

Here’s my optimal infield, with the pieces around right now. At first base, Loney and Blake split time. Blake sees all lefties and half of all home starts; Loney gets to bat in all nine positions the next time the Dodgers go to Colorado. At second base, Carroll needs to be the nearly full-time starter if only for his on-base skills, with Miles starting twice a week to get him time and keep Carroll fresh. Gordon is certainly going to play most days at short, though Uribe or Carroll can spot there now and then, and Uribe should play most days at third, with Blake or Miles getting a start or two a week there. I say this because even though I have little faith in Uribe being worth the value of his contract, the fact is that he’s here for 2.5 more years and it’s too soon to give up on that. Besides, he can’t always be this bad. Right?

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News on two Dodger prospects from Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus:

Garrett Gould, RHP, Dodgers (Low-A Great Lakes)
A second-round pick in 2009, Gould had a so-so 4.09 ERA in the Pioneer League last year. When scouts saw him, all they could really talk about was projection, as while the skinny 6-foot-4 righty oozed it, his right-now stuff left plenty to be desired. That projection is starting to come through; what was once an upper-80s fastball is now in the lower 90s, and he is maintaining his good control and a very good curveball. He’s looking like one of the best arms in the Midwest League after reeling off back-to-back starts without allowing an earned run. Consistency is a word rarely used in Low-A, but with a 1.55 ERA in 12 starts, in which he has never allowed more than two earned runs, Gould has been just that and maturing.

Trayvon Robinson, OF, Dodgers (Triple-A Albuquerque)
Over the past six weeks, we learned that hitting in Chavez Ravine is very different from hitting in Albuquerque. Just ask Jerry Sands. Still, is it time for Robinson to get the next chance? With a home run on Friday, a double and two walks on Saturday, and five hits on Sunday, he’s now batting .299/.357/.543 in 58 games, and while he might not have Sands’ pure bat, he his speed and ability to play all three outfield slots offers more lineup flexibility. Robinson still struggles against lefties (which is all Sands could hit), so there would be a different dynamic in play, but when Tony Gwynn Jr. is on pace for nearly 300 plate appearances, there has to be a better way.

Gould is someone we’ve never heard all that much about, obscured as he’s been by the Zach Lee / Chris Withrow / Allen Webster types, so it’s good to see some positive news there. We’ve heard plenty about Robinson and I’ve contemplated making a “when will he arrive?” post for a few weeks now. If the Dodgers have surprised at all this year, it’s in that they’ve promoted prospects like Jerry Sands, Rubby De La Rosa, and Dee Gordon far sooner than we’d expected. Robinson’s probably not completely ready yet – a 67/19 K/BB mark at AAA isn’t something I’m dying to add to the lineup – but as Goldstein notes, the production is there and Gwynn (and Trent Oeltjen, and Marcus Thames) are clearly not the answer in left. I’ll say Robinson doesn’t get the call in June, but I could see it any time after Independence Day.

Tony Gwynn Saves the Day

June 12, 2011 at 7:30 am | Posted in Tony Gwynn | 33 Comments

I missed most of last night’s game because I was at a wedding, but from what I’ve seen it was a crazy affair. (The game, not the wedding.)

Still, when a game ends like this, and especially when it ends on a great play by someone who has received little praise around here because he’s contributed next to nothing all season, it’s something I can’t let go by. After Scott Elbert and especially Matt Guerrier did their best to choke away a six-run lead in the 8th, and Javy Guerra allowed five baserunners in the 9th, Charlie Blackmon came up as the tying run with the bases loaded and two outs. He sliced a ball to left. It looked for all the world that it would land and possibly skip to the wall, scoring at least two.

Ladies and gentlemen, for the second time this season, Tony Gwynn. (click to animate.)

It’s Time To Give A.J. Ellis a Chance

June 11, 2011 at 10:24 am | Posted in A.J. Ellis, Dioner Navarro, Rod Barajas | 30 Comments

I hardly need to link you to all of the posts I wrote over the winter saying that a catching duo of Rod Barajas and Dioner Navarro wasn’t going to work, right? Shockingly… it hasn’t worked. Over the last few weeks, they’ve been largely sharing the role, and they’ve combined to put up remarkably similar lines.

Last 30 days
Barajas: 61 PA .172/.200/.259 (.459) 2 doubles 1 homer 14/2 K/BB
Navarro: 60 PA .161/.203/.196 (.400) 2 doubles 0 homer 11/3 K/BB

Eerie, isn’t it? The only thing that’s giving Barajas any sort of boost in the SLG department is that one dinger, but if I’d waited a few more days then even that would have been outside the 30-day window; it came way back on May 13. What should really stand out there is not that the two catchers have been putting up the same numbers, but that each set of numbers is atrocious. It’s hardly just over the last month, because the season stats tell the same tale. The 35-year-old Barajas is hitting just .213/.251/.372, unable to match even his modest career line of .237/.282/.410. Navarro has been even worse, at .176/.233/.250, continuing his total career flameout since a quality 2008 in Tampa. Neither one ranks within the top 30 catchers by OPS (min. 70 PA); Navarro slots at 42nd of 44. By just about every offensive statistic other than home runs, the Dodgers have the worst hitting catchers in the National League, and their combined OBP of .264 is worse than every team in the majors except for the Twins, who have been without the injured Joe Mauer for much of the season.

And we knew this wouldn’t work. We were aghast that Barajas got over $3m based on one good week after over a decade of mediocrity. I liked the idea of signing Navarro as a low-cost lottery ticket in hopes that the former top prospect could rebound – that’s just smart – but hated the idea that he was given a major league deal for $1m rather than the non-roster invite he deserved. (Let’s pause here for a moment and stop anyone who wants to start the “should have kept Russell Martin!” bandwagon; though he got off to a good start, he’s hitting .196 since April 27 and has missed most of the last week with a back injury.)

Neither one has worked out, and it’s time to make a move. The answer is clear: DFA Navarro and recall A.J. Ellis. Ellis is no more likely to add power than Dee Gordon is, but he’s an absolute on-base machine. In parts of nine minor league seasons, his career OBP is .402; it’s been .400 or better for four seasons in a row and it hasn’t been below .380 since 2005. In 119 AAA PA this year, it’s at .470, and that’s what happens when you have a 8/23 K/BB ratio. That’s a number which would be insane, if not for the fact that he’s on the plus side of that ledger over his entire career (268/309). He’s seen bits of bit-league time over the last two years with injuries to Martin, Brad Ausmus, and Navarro, and in small sample sizes he’s managed to retain that skill – .371 OBP, 20/18 K/BB, in 147 2010-11 PA. Don’t forget, he was also the hottest Dodger hitter in Sept/Oct last year, hitting .417/.533/.500. There’s no question at all that Ellis is the superior option right now.

If this all sounds familiar, it’s because I raised a similar concern in February, asking if Navarro really should be guaranteed a job:

So tell me, why is it that Navarro has a $1m contract for 2011, while Ellis has bus rides around the PCL to look forward to? Because of that one good year? That fluke year also isn’t fooling the latest iteration of Baseball Prospectus‘ PECOTA projections, pegging Navarro for .243/.304/.336 and Ellis at .256/.364/.321. The numbers just don’t support it, and that’s without even questioning the off-field issues brought up by Navarro refusing to remain with the Rays in the playoffs last year after not making the roster. It’s also without bringing defense into the equation, as that’s notoriously hard to evaluate for catchers, though it should be noted that Ellis has a very good repuation, and the DRaysBay quote above wasn’t exactly glowing towards Navarro. (Update: after this went up, BP colleague and DockOfTheRays blogger Jason Collette added, “enjoy that hot mess behind the plate.” So there’s that.)

Ellis would be an improvement over Navarro right now, but let’s be clear that this is more than about making an incremental change to win ballgames today. The 30-year-old Ellis is hardly a savior, and he alone isn’t going to make the difference between last place and the playoffs. However, since this is his last option year and the other two are here on one-year deals, he’s also the only one likely to be a part of the 2012 club.

So what are the reasons to not do it? Ellis is a righty while Navarro is a switch-hitter, and having a switch-hitting catcher can indeed be a valuable piece. Of course, since Navarro can’t hit, it hardly matters what side of the plate he’s standing on when he whiffs or weakly grounds out. There’s also the issue of depth, because if Barajas or Ellis were to then get hurt, you’re down to JD Closser. That’s a valid concern, but I’m not as worried about it as you’d think; Closser would hardly be worse than Navarro, and as we’ve seen with Jay Gibbons and Juan Castro lately, terrible players get DFA’d for a reason. It’s more than likely Navarro would just end up in ABQ anyway.

Ellis has earned the chance to play in the big leagues. Having him here would improve the team right now, even if it’s only ever so slightly, and it would help identify what kind of role he can play in years to come. Navarro has earned the right to lose his job. Let’s make a move.

The Legend of Matt Kemp Grows

June 10, 2011 at 8:50 pm | Posted in Chad Billingsley, Matt Kemp | 18 Comments

About an hour before the first pitch, Matt Kemp was scratched with a sore left hamstring. For 8 1/3 innings, we watched along with him as the Dodger offense, robbed of their main threat, snoozed through another game. After Andre Ethier struck out to start the ninth, the Dodgers had made 25 outs and managed just three hits, two by Dee Gordon. Not that this impending loss was on the offense alone, of course; Chad Billingsley gave up thirteen hits, including seven singles and five runs in the sixth inning alone, and the Dodger defense was generously charged with only two errors.

With none on and one out in the ninth, down six runs, Don Mattingly sent Kemp to the plate. I’ll admit that at the time, I scoffed at the idea of risking Kemp’s health in a lost game, seemingly for the sake of maintaining his MLB-best consecutive games streak. If Kemp is lost for any period of time, a season that’s already in serious trouble – the Dodgers did enter the day in last place, after all – would be all but finished.

Kemp stepped to the plate, an otherwise meaningless at-bat in a long, trying season… and absolutely murdered a baseball. No, really; Kemp crushed this one beyond the left field bleachers. I’ve included a picture of Coors Field at the right here to illustrate just how massive of a blast it takes to do that, and he did it with a sore leg, coming off the bench cold, down six runs. When we look back upon Kemp’s 2011, quickly growing into a season for the ages, we’re going to remember a lot of moments. This is going to be near the top of the list.

Still, with no one on, that merely made the game 6-1, and since Kemp can’t bat in every spot in the order like Bugs Bunny, it seemed clear that his blast would be more of a fun footnote than the start of a great comeback, particularly when Juan Uribe followed James Loney‘s single with a flyout. That put the Dodgers down to their last out, which Dioner Navarro happily squandered by grounding out to third… except that Jim Tracy, looking to rest Todd Helton for the ninth, had rearranged his infield and moved second baseman Chris Nelson to the hot corner. Nelson bounced the throw, new first baseman Ty Wigginton couldn’t handle it, and the Dodgers were still alive.

One by one, the subpar members of the lineup finally woke up, enough to actually allow you to dream. Tony Gwynn doubled, scoring Loney. 6-2. Aaron Miles singled, scoring Navarro and Gwynn. 6-4. Rod Barajas singled, scoring Miles. 6-5. Trent Oeltjen came to the plate as the winning run… and struck out on four pitches, ending the game. The Dodgers remain in last place, but the rally at least forces me to hold off using my Photoshopped “Dodger car hurtling off a cliff” image for one more day.

******

Appearance alert: tomorrow morning at 11am ET, I’ll be making another appearance on the Baseball Digest radio show on Sirius 210 / XM 87, talking Dodgers. Last time we were able to take some calls – give a ring and get your frustration with the team off your chest.

Even Matt Kemp Can’t Save This Mess

June 9, 2011 at 9:15 pm | Posted in Clayton Kershaw, Matt Kemp | 61 Comments

With the Dodgers up 4-0 five innings into the game, I started thinking about what I might want to write about tonight. Initially, this post was going to be titled “Matt Kemp Is A Shiny Golden God”, as he’d homered and tripled to drive in three of the four runs. (He’d later add a double, too.) I didn’t want to shortchange Clayton Kershaw, however, who’d allowed just two singles in five shutout innings.

Good thing I didn’t actually start writing that post, because the wheels fell off in a hurry. Kershaw ran into trouble in the sixth inning, allowing three runs to come in on three hits and a walk, but he helped get them back by leading off the seventh with a hit, one of his two on the day. The Dodgers would get those three back on four hits and some kind Colorado defense, restoring the four run lead headed into the bottom of the seventh.

That frame – bottom seven – ended up being one of the uglier ones we’ve seen in years. I’ve seen some arguments that Kershaw should have been lifted to start the inning after his struggles in the sixth, but I can’t really fault Don Mattingly here. His pitch count was low, he’d retired the last two in the sixth, and he’s Clayton Kershaw with a four-run lead. I get it. But the first two batters singled, the third walked, and Kershaw left with the bases loaded and no outs. Scott Elbert and Mike MacDougal combined to retire one of the next six batters, and after a half-inning that lasted over 40 minutes, the Rockies had put up five runs to take the lead. Poor Elbert; though he didn’t get the job done, he allowed a single and a walk against a strikeout in his three batters, and he gets pinned with the loss.

(I’d like to take this opportunity to once again point out how silly ERA can be. Kershaw left the bases loaded, and while starting that mess is definitely on him, once he left the game he had absolutely no control over whether those runners score. If Elbert wiggles out of that mess, Kershaw allows three earned runs, which doesn’t look so bad. Elbert (and MacDougal) couldn’t, and so Kershaw’s line looks like a disaster. MacDougal, by the way, faced three batters without retiring a single one. He wasn’t charged with any earned runs. Remember that when someone looks at MacDougal’s 2.14 ERA and tries to tell you he’s any good. Hooray, ERA!)

Though the Dodgers were only down by one run with six outs remaining in the Coors Field funhouse, the game was all but over at that point. (It didn’t help that Josh Lindblom allowed another run to cross in the eighth.) The Dodgers went down meekly in the eighth, and Kemp (needing a single for the cycle) and Rod Barajas failed to cash in on Andre Ethier‘s one-out double in the ninth.

Oh, and in what’s becoming a regular feature here… Kemp & Ethier, 6-9. Kershaw, 2-3. Everyone else, 4-26.