Dodgers Beat Me to the Punch, Demote Jerry Sands
June 9, 2011 at 2:27 pm | Posted in Trent Oeltjen | 27 Comments
No one’s going to believe me on this, but I was just now halfway through writing a post about how the Dodgers should demote Jerry Sands to Albuquerque and recall Trent Oeltjen to take his place. Halfway is apparently as far as I’m ever going to get, because Dylan Hernandez reports that the Dodgers have done just that. Predicting an otherwise out-of-nowhere move? Sounds award-winning to me.
Anyway, I’ve been okay with the idea of Sands getting sent down for some time now, and I’d fully expected him to be shipped out for Marcus Thames last week rather than Jay Gibbons. In fact, at the time I wrote that I’d had to shelve a post explaining why Sands should go that I was never able to use. Here’s the remnants of that draft:
I’m sure that many of you will find this to be a horrendous miscarriage of justice. You’ll wonder why the Dodgers just sent down the player with their second best May OPS. You’ll use this as further evidence that the Dodgers value mediocre veterans over talented young players. And you’ll wonder why Thames is even worth a roster spot in the first place.
These are all valid concerns. Believe me, when I flip on the game, I’d much rather watch Sands than Thames, Jay Gibbons, or Tony Gwynn, in much the same way I’d rather see Ivan DeJesus get a shot instead of Aaron Miles, or a potted plant instead of Juan Castro. I’d rather see players who could be a big part of the future than players that have no future here and barely even have a present. But I’m also not sure I can get on board with this being such a terrible idea.
On May 22, Sands went 4-4 in Chicago in an 8-3 loss to the White Sox, which was the game that saw both Rod Barajas and Andre Ethier collect minor injuries. Since then, Sands has just three hits in 35 plate appearances, dragging his season line down to .200/.294/.328. That’s not entirely fair, as that line represents his entire year, and he definitely showed large improvement in May as opposed to April.
(I updated the numbers in that last paragraph to reflect the last few days.)
Numbers aren’t everything, of course. When Sands arrived, we heard a great deal about his maturity, ability to make adjustments, and command of the strike zone. From this vantage point, all of what we’ve heard has been true and then some. Before his recent slump, he’d shown an increased ability to pull the ball, rather than always going the other way, and even when the power wasn’t there he was seeing a lot of pitches and getting on base.
By sending him back down now, you hope that he goes down knowing he can play on this level, with a few adjustments. This is where the maturity comes into play; some rookies can’t handle a demotion well, but Sands sounds like the type who can. Ideally, he goes back down to ABQ, mashes Triple-A pitching for a while to get his confidence back up (also important, as you don’t want a string of oh-fers in the bigs to get him down), and then we’ll see back up later in the summer. I’d say “when rosters expand on Sept. 1″, but I think we all know that injuries will necessitate a recall sooner.
Besides, not saying goodbye to the minors for good after making your big league debut is hardly the sign that a player is unable to be a productive major leaguer. Matt Kemp came up at 21 in 2006 and in his first 50 plate appearances, he wowed with seven HR and a 1.287 OPS. Over his next 83 plate appearances, he struck out 30 times with no homers and a .539 OPS, as pitchers realized he couldn’t lay off breaking balls low and away. That got him a ticket back to the minors until rosters expanded, and I think it’s worked out pretty well for him. The same can be said for Clayton Kershaw, who got a three-week trip back to AA after eight starts of varying quality in 2008.
So go ahead and be disappointed, because the part of me that watches the team everyday is as well. Just keep in mind that this is almost certainly the right thing for Sands long-term, and that’s where the focus of this team ought to be right now.
That’s how I felt a week ago, and nothing has changed today. Sands is a big part of this team’s future, and it’s in his best interest to go back down and get his confidence back up. He’s not helping the team right now, and he’s not helping himself. He’ll be back, and he’ll be better for the experience.
As for Oeltjen, the Australian lefty appeared in 14 late-season games for the Dodgers last year, and has been terrorizing AAA pitching to the tune of .339/.429/.583 this year. It’s to be expected that we consider that an ABQ creation and while it’s true he’s been ridiculous at home (.382/.451/.607), he’s still been productive on the road (.297/.407/.560), with his eight homers split evenly. He’s not likely to see much playing time, but he can spot at all three outfield positions and is likely to be a Gibbons-esque lefty bench bat. To make room on the 40-man roster, pitcher Luis Vazquez was DFA’d.
MSTI Wins an Award
June 9, 2011 at 12:54 pm | Posted in Shameless Self-Promotion | 32 Comments
Oh, hey. How’s things? Nothing much going on here. Oh, well there’s this: LA Weekly named their “Los Angeles Web Award” winners today. Who’s that in the midst of bigshots like G4, LA Observed, Alyssa Milano, and yeah, even Perez Hilton?
How in the world this happened, I do not know, as the Dodger blogosphere is a collection of some of the brightest talents around, including but not limited to DodgerThoughts, TrueBlueLA, Sons of Steve Garvey, Vin Scully is my Homeboy, and many more – and that’s just baseball, because there’s also plenty of quality work for the Lakers, Kings, colleges, and so on. But I will take this as a sign that years of relentlessly bashing Juan Pierre, praising Matt Kemp, and working hard to kill off RBI & wins as relevant tools have actually been seen as useful, so I humbly accept. Thanks to Keith & crew at LA Weekly and anyone who’s taken the time to read or comment, good or bad, over the years, because you all keep me honest. My, how far we’ve come since the days of going against the tide to claim that Wilson Betemit should be starting at third base over Nomar Garciaparra, which is what I did in the 3rd MSTI post ever back in 2007. (Good lord, did I really use fielding percentage there? I suppose we all have to start somewhere.)
The 7th Inning As Microcosm Of the Season
June 8, 2011 at 6:53 pm | Posted in Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp | 53 CommentsHiroki Kuroda sailed through the first four innings on a hot night in Philadelphia, escaped some trouble in the 5th, and then was touched for a Ryan Howard solo homer in the 6th. That was the run that put the Dodgers down 1-0 entering the top of the 7th, and, well, just see the play-by-play.
Down one run, Andre Ethier & Matt Kemp set up the 5-6-7 hitters with two men in scoring position and no outs. To avoid scoring a run in that situation, you basically have to be actively trying to fail. To the surprise of absolutely no one, Juan Uribe, Marcus Thames, and Rod Barajas failed to get the job done. But that’s not news; Ethier and Kemp have been sabotaged by their underperforming teammates all season long. What really got me was the furor on Twitter as this was happening. In rough chronological order…
Tony Jackson (ESPNLA):
horrible AB by Uribe right there. Just horrible.
Boy am I glad we kept Thames
Dylan Hernandez (LA Times):
Thames, who batted 3rd Monday, comes up with men on the corners. “It doesn’t matter where you bat him,” someone said, “the game finds him.
Jayson Stark (ESPN):
The Rod Barajas Fan Club will be delighted to know that once that pop-up came down, he was 2 for 37 this year with men in scoring position.
@jaysonst and that .054 average is 54 points better than Thames, who is now 0 for 11 w/RISP
I have never seen a team come up with more creative ways to not score after getting a runner to third with less than two outs.
Kevin Modesti (LA Daily News):
@dodgerscribe It’s another example of we’ve talked about. Ethier & Kemp get on … Uribe, Thames & Barajas coming up — what do you expect?
That was one of those Dodgers offense moments you sorta knew was coming, but you still feel disgusted anyway watching it happen.
I could have replayed this entire thing again the 9th, when Kemp led off with a leadoff single against Ryan Madson and was immediately erased when Uribe grounded into a double play. On the night, Ethier & Kemp went 4-8 with a double. Everyone else? 3-24. Despite the excitement of the last few days, the tune remains the same: if Kemp and Ethier don’t get some help, and soon, they alone won’t be enough to carry this team.
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Jerry Sands has been awful lately, and I wouldn’t be against a minor league trip for him, so I can’t harp on this too badly. But I had to question Don Mattingly’s decision in the 8th inning, when he hit for Dee Gordon against lefty Cole Hamels, who was excellent tonight. Hitting for Gordon, who was 0-3 at that point, wasn’t a problem at all. What bothered me was that instead of bringing up the righty Sands, who at least has a prayer of going deep, or even Aaron Miles, who is somehow hitting .410 in 39 PA against LHP this year (scratch that, Miles had hit for the pitcher just before), he went with… James Loney. Loney can’t hit anyone this year, and he especially can’t hit lefties. Loney popped out on a 3-0 count. Bizarre choice, in my opinion.
Dee Gordon and the Redemption of #9
June 8, 2011 at 9:10 am | Posted in Dee Gordon | 20 Comments
When the Dodgers came up in the top of the first inning last night, leading off was a skinny left-handed African-American batter wearing #9. He was so slight that he looked more like the batboy than a real member of the team, and the #9 he was wearing on his jersey seemingly covered his entire back. He’s not expected to add any power whatsoever, but the hope is that his electricity on the basepaths and at the top of the order can really jumpstart a stagnant offense, along with the idea that his speed and athleticism can help make up for some glaring defensive shortcomings.
If, for just a second, seeing the #9 stride to the plate on that package gave you a terrifying flashback that you’d somehow returned to the Juan Pierre era, well, you’re not quite alone. Fortunately for the 9, Dee Gordon is a far better prospect than Pierre ever was (playing shortstop and not being handed a foolish $44m contract helps), and the three hits and a steal in his starting debut last night gave us all hope that we could be seeing the number in a positive light into the next decade.
This all comes none too soon for the 9. Despite never being a number which was historically identified with any particular Dodger like the 4, 32, or 42, over the last 80 years the 9 has seen more than its share of success. It’s been worn (briefly) by two Hall of Famers, by several short-term Dodgers who nonetheless were very productive in the blue, and it was there at a pivotal moment in baseball history. But over the last decade, the number has fallen into disrepair, worn by a variety of overpaid, underperforming players – most of whom I’d prefer to forget ever were Dodgers in the first place. Not to put too much pressure on the young Gordon after just one start, but he’s got a chance to change that.
As best I can tell, #9 was first worn by Danny Taylor in 1932 after he was purchased from the Cubs on May 6. Taylor had a 142 OPS+ in that first year, and finished his five year Dodger career with a solid line of .300/.378/.456. After a brief, unimportant stint with Tom Winsett in 1936, Babe Phelps picked it up from 1937-1941, seasons in which he made three All-Star teams and had a Dodger line of .315/.368/.477. After Phelps, the number suffered through a tough time during the war, being worn by a succession of short-timers not worth mentioning, along with Tommy Brown (at 16!) and Lloyd Waner (at the tail end of his Hall of Fame career). Hall of Famer Arky Vaughn then wore it for the final two seasons of his career in 1946 and ’47, years in which he combined for a .401 OBP.
After Vaughn, it was once again passed around – who can forget Dick Teed striking out in his lone MLB plate appearance in 1953? – before being picked up by Gino Cimoli in 1956. That’s notable because Cimoli, who passed away earlier this year, wore it when he was the first batter to step to the plate on the West Coast after the move from Brooklyn in 1958. Following the season, Cimoli was traded to St. 
Louis for the man who would take not only his roster spot but his number, Wally Moon. Moon pushed the number into the spotlight, wearing it for parts of seven seasons, winning two World Series rings and finishing 4th in the 1959 MVP balloting.
Moon and his terrifying unibrow were gone after 1965, and the 9 went for three years to Al Ferrara and his 119 Dodger OPS+. Next, Andy Kosco wore it for parts of two seasons, collecting 27 homers. After Kosco moved on, the number went unworn for much of the 1970s, save for a few sparse appearances here and there. In 1983, highly-touted prospect Greg Brock gave it a home for the next four seasons. Brock was coming off a 44 homer 1982 in Albuquerque, and he never quite reached the heights expected of him in Los Angeles, though he provided value with 71 homers and a 108 OPS+ before being traded to Milwaukee after the 1986 season. For the next four seasons, it lived on the back of Mickey Hatcher, who had returned from Minnesota early in 1987. Hatcher departed after 1990, and the number lay unused by active players until Todd Hundley wore it in 1999-2000, two years in which he combined for 48 homers and a 111 OPS+. Marquis Grissom picked it up for the next two seasons, one lousy (2001′s .654 OPS) and one excellent (2002′s .831).
But after Grissom’s nice 2002, everything started to go downhill for the 9. Hundley briefly wore it again in his short 2003 return, hitting just .182 to end his career. No one wore it on the 2004 playoff team, and then Jason Phillips and his .287 OBP wore it for one season on the dreadful 2005 club, driving him out of town. The next season, manager Grady Little picked it up. Grady Little doesn’t have an OPS. Grady Little did wear #9. It didn’t end well.
It would get worse. Juan Pierre was signed before 2007, and traded Little a motorcycle for the number. We will not relive the entire Pierre era here, because I care about you. Let’s just say, the most #9 was seen in those years was on the back of a jersey flying down to first in a futile effort to beat out a weak grounder to the right side. But even that wasn’t the bottom of the barrel. With Pierre off to Chicago in the winter of 2009, Garret Anderson came in, despite mountains of evidence displaying that he was past his prime. Though he wore #00 throughout the spring, an appropriate choice based on what our expectations were of him, he switched to #9 when he made the team. (A.J. Ellis had been wearing the number that spring, but never did in a regular game.)
Anderson, as you may remember, challenged historical records for futility before finally getting cut loose in August. After such a horrendous decade, you might think that they’d set the jersey aside out of compassion, but no: Russ Mitchell arrived to hit .143 in 43 plate appearances to finish out the season. Even to start this season, the curse hadn’t ended, as Hector Gimenez – who I must admit I had completely forgotten existed until just now – managed a single in seven plate appearances before heading off for knee surgery.
As you can see, the 9 has suffered through a pretty tough stretch of late, bad enough that even Grissom actually looks good right now. Amongst the many reasons to cheer for Gordon, bringing a positive connotation to the 9 after what it’s seen recently is just one more.
(All of this information came from the excellent baseball-reference, though they do not list coaches numbers, so it’s possible that the 9 was worn by non-players in the dormant period of the 70s and 90s.)
Rubby de la Rosa’s First Start One to Remember
June 7, 2011 at 7:20 pm | Posted in Dee Gordon, Rubby de la Rosa | 27 Comments
Rubby De La Rosa probably didn’t need any more pressure coming into tonight, his first major league start. Sure, he claims that he doesn’t feel pressure playing baseball because he grew up on the streets, but this wasn’t any ordinary game, or even an ordinary first career start, if there are such things. This was on the road in Philadelphia, home of the best team in baseball, and on a sweltering night, to boot. His opponent was Roy Oswalt, a veteran building a borderline Hall of Fame case. His leadoff hitter and shortstop, Dee Gordon, was also making his first start, and is regarded by most to be here before his time. (Uh, more on that one in a second). And he was backed by a lineup that seemed disinterested in being completely shut down the night before.
Under the circumstances, de la Rosa needed to be all but perfect. He wasn’t, not by a longshot. In fact, his first two innings toed the line of ‘total disaster’. And it didn’t matter. Thanks to some timely hitting from the top of the lineup, a less-than-dominant Oswalt, some hilariously bad defense from the Phillies, de la Rosa’s ability to survive a tough start, and some good old fashioned excellent luck, Rubby’s walking away with his first win as a starter.
The worries started early with de la Rosa, who missed the strike zone with each of his first six pitches, allowing Shane Victorino to walk and steal before he managed to finally find the plate with a pitch. Juan Uribe took some of the pressure off with a nice play to nab Victorino at third on a Placido Polanco bouncer that went off de la Rosa’s glove, but Rubby threw four more balls to Chase Utley to put two on. Ryan Howard foolishly came up hacking at the first two pitches, fouling both off, before sending another grounder to Uribe, who forced Utley at second. Raul Ibanez grounded out to the pitcher, and de la Rosa had escaped despite throwing 11 of his 19 pitches for balls.
The second didn’t start off much better. Carlos Ruiz walked on five pitches. Domonic Brown followed with the same, and after starting off Wilson Valdez with three balls, de la Rosa allowed him to single to center, loading the bases with none out. If you weren’t worried before, now was the time. The Phillies were going to blow this open right then and there. De la Rosa wouldn’t make it out of the second inning, and he’d look back on his first start as a disaster.
Except… for once, the fates smiled upon the Dodgers. Oswalt struck out, and Shane Victorino grounded back to the mound, with de la Rosa making a nice play to force Ruiz at the plate. He walked Polanco to force in a run – can’t live on the edge forever, you know – but ended the threat by getting Chase Utley to fly out to center. Of the 30 pitches in the second, 15 missed the plate. He’d walked five of the first eleven over the first two innings.
De la Rosa had managed to get through the first two innings while allowing just one run, but it’d hardly been smooth. In the third, he didn’t walk anyone – this is progress – but did allow three singles, avoiding damage only when Andre Ethier nailed Ibanez at the plate to end the inning. (It was a nice throw by Ethier, but Steve Lyons’ continued insistence that Ethier is one of the best defensive right fielders in the league made my brain want to melt out of my ears.) But progress is progress, and de la Rosa kept it up through his remaining two innings, retiring all six with little trouble. It was a stunning turnaround after walking five in the first two innings; of the 96 pitches he threw, 50 missed the plate.
On the offensive side, we have to start with Dee Gordon, but there were a lot of heroes tonight. Gordon singled in each of his first three at-bats, becoming the first Dodger to do so in his first start since Mike Piazza in 1992, according to KCAL, and easily stole second base on his only chance. He fielded his position without issue, and had the highest WPA of any of tonight’s participants.
I don’t want to shortchange Gordon – he was great tonight – but we have a lot to get to. Matt Kemp doubled and homered again, putting him on pace for approximately 129 this year. Uribe doubled and made several excellent defensive plays, prompting me to point out on Twitter that he’s underrated with the glove and to ask if he and Gordon have the largest weight differential of any double-play combo in history. Casey Blake reached based twice, but got caught stealing and foolishly sacrifice bunted Gordon from scoring position (2nd) and no outs into scoring position (3rd) and one out.
And then there were the Phillies, who were a circus unto themselves in the first few innings. I wish that I’d had time to grab animated .gifs of all of these and set them to “Yakety Sax”, because their mistakes combined with de la Rosa’s wildness made for an entertaining sequence. In the 2nd, Kemp doubled but was doubled off on Uribe’s liner to Utley… or should I say, would have been doubled off had Utley not thrown the ball away. But we’re just getting started, because in the 3rd, Oswalt tried to pick Blake off first, missing the minor detail that Ryan Howard was not holding Blake on. Gordon scored from second, Blake went to third, and I could hear Phillies fan cringing from here. That was followed two batters later by Kemp grounding into a sure double play, if not for Utley throwing it wide again.
Blake Hawksworth, Matt Guerrier, Scott Elbert, and Javy Guerra followed by allowing one run over four innings. Despite what you heard repeatedly from Lyons, Guerra is not the closer based on his finishing off tonight’s game in a non-save situation. Until the Padillas, Broxtons, Jansens, and Kuos of the world return, this is strictly a bullpen-by-committee situation. (Good news on that front, however, as both Kuo and Jansen are to begin rehab assignments on Thursday, and Broxton is throwing bullpen sessions.)
******
Hey, look – it’s Casey Blake in 2035.
Courtesy of twitter fan “Willers”, that’s former major leaguer Tom Gordon (Dee’s father, of course) sitting with Casey’s father. Eerie, isn’t it?
Rubby and Dee Hit the Big Time
June 7, 2011 at 11:23 am | Posted in Alex Santana, Dee Gordon, Jerry Sands, Pratt Maynard, Rubby de la Rosa | 21 Comments
Tonight in Philadelphia, Rubby De La Rosa will make his first MLB start. (As Joe Block notes, it’ll be just his 24th professional start since arriving in America.) Dee Gordon will likely make his first start at shortstop, though that’s not confirmed yet. (Update: now confirmed. He’s leading off, and Jerry Sands is in there too.)It’s a momentous day for both, and I’m trying to remember the last time we’ve looked forward to a Dodger game with such high anticipation. Ignoring Opening Day or other special events, when was the last otherwise nondescript regular season Dodger game that drew such interest? I suppose we have to mention Clayton Kershaw‘s debut in 2008 – “Like Christmas in May“, as I referred to it at the time. There’s also Manny Ramirez‘ Dodger debut later that year, or his return from suspension in May 2009. Other than that, though? Seeing Gordon and de la Rosa appear at the same time has to rank pretty high. This is all totally unscientific, of course, so tell me where this ranks for you.
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In Buster Olney’s ESPN column this morning, he noted that Jerry Sands had seen more pitches per plate appearance of anyone in Monday’s games, seeing 23 in 3 PA, an average of 7.7 per. Even when he’s not producing, it’s a clear sign that he’s also not helping the pitcher at all by getting himself out. For the season, he’s seeing 4.21 pitches per plate appearance. If he had enough PA to qualify, that would place him in a tie for 14th best in MLB. You might recognize some of the 13 names ahead of him, which include Jose Bautista, Adam Dunn, Jamey Carroll, Curtis Granderson, and Dustin Pedroia. Try not to look at the #1 name on that list, however. Trust me.
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The draft continues, as the Dodgers selected Florida high school third baseman Alex Santana (son of Rafael) in the second round, North Carolina State catcher Pratt Maynard in the third, and college RHPs Ryan O’Sullivan and Scott McGough in the fourth. (Jon Weisman also notes that the potential is there to see first round pick Chris Reed pitch for Stanford on Friday at 12pm on ESPN2.) The Santana pick is somewhat underwhelming – as Baseball America’s Jim Callis wrote, “Think Santana is the first guy who didn’t get full-writeup treatment in our state by state coverage” – but I’ve taken an unexpected shine to Maynard.
It helps that he’s a college catcher entering a system all but completely devoid of backstop talent, of course, and especially so because his speciality seems to be getting on base. But part of it is because his name sounds like a PCU fraternity brother of Carter Prescott III & Bantam Draper. Part of it is because moments after the selection, a woman claiming to be his aunt tweeted her excitement at me. Part of it is probably because I’ve always been infatuated with catchers who hit from the left side, and absolutely part of it is because when I did a Google image search for him, what you see at the right is what popped up.
I also came across a March post from Mariners blog MySeattleSports.com, outlining his virtues and hoping the Mariners would take him. It’s worth clicking through for the various reasons why.
Dodgers End Dynamic Day With Dull Defeat
June 6, 2011 at 7:21 pm | Posted in Cliff Lee, Dee Gordon, Ted Lilly | 5 Comments
What a day, right? The Dodgers kicked things off this afternoon by recalling Dee Gordon, and then finally rid us all of Juan Castro and Jay Gibbons. With the #16 pick in the draft, they selected Stanford’s Chris Reed in the first round.
Oh, right – they played a game, too.
The less said about that the better, however, because the Dodger lineup was completely dominated by Philadelphia starter Cliff Lee. Now you may have heard both that Lee is somewhat good at baseball and that the Dodger offense outside of Matt Kemp is something less than imposing, so this shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, particularly with a wide strike zone benefiting both pitchers. Still, Lee was masterful in striking out 10 over seven shutout innings. The Dodgers briefly threatened when Jamey Carroll & Aaron Miles (who combined for five of the nine Dodger hits, all singles) both hit bouncing singles to start the game, but Marcus Thames grounded into a double play, and only once more before the 9th did they manage to even get a runner to second.
Ted Lilly tossed out a decent enough start only to be victimized by the total lack of run support, holding the Phillies scoreless in five of six innings, though being touched for two runs in the third on three hits and a walk. Blake Hawksworth looked good in his return from the disabled list, tossing a perfect 7th, before Mike MacDougal began his inevitable regression to being Mike MacDougal, allowing two walks and a Carlos Ruiz double to put the third run on the board in the 8th.
Really, the first eight innings are barely worth noting, but we finally saw some action in the 9th, when Gordon made his debut running for Juan Uribe after the veteran infielder had singled. James Loney followed with a single to right-center, and Gordon easily ran to third.”Easily” probably isn’t strong enough there; Gordon barely looked like he was exerting himself in blazing around the bases. Whatever concerns we may have with his offense and defense, there is absolutely no question that his speed is as good as advertised.
Anyway, with Gordon on third and Loney on first with no outs and the Dodgers down two, it looked like the Dodgers might actually have something going against Phillies closer Ryan Madson. Andre Ethier, hitting for Jerry Sands, nailed a hard-hit grounder to shortstop Wilson Valdez. A better shortstop could have perhaps started a double play, but it was hit so hard that it was all Valdez could do to knock it down and force Ethier at second. Gordon scored to cut the lead to two, with a man still on first with one out, but with the bench emptied, they were forced to stick with catchers Rod Barajas and pinch-hitter Dioner Navarro. Each struck out – Navarro particularly looked bad while doing so – and the game was over.
But forget about the game. Gordon’s here, and likely to start tomorrow behind Rubby De La Rosa. Sure, they’ll have to face Roy Oswalt. But if you’re not optimistic about the present, this will at least be a good glimpse at the future.
Dodgers Select LHP Chris Reed
June 6, 2011 at 5:41 pm | Posted in Chris Reed | 11 Comments
With the 16th pick in the first round, the Dodgers have selected LHP Chris Reed from Stanford. I’m not a draft expert, and I don’t pretend to be. So here’s some pre-draft scouting reports, while we all try to learn a bit more about the newest Dodger first round pick.
Reed might be the best arm few knew about heading into this year. The Stanford lefty hadn’t pitched that much prior to this season and was serving as the school’s closer. He’s got the pure stuff for the role, with a fastball that he can get up to 96 mph, sitting typically anywhere from 91 to 95 mph, with good arm-side run. He complements the plus fastball (mainly a four-seamer) with an outstanding slider, giving him enough right there to excel in short relief. But while his command is average at best, he does have the stuff — his changeup could be a plus pitch in the future as well — along with a strong, durable frame. He’s still a bit of an unknown quality, but the stuff is there, and that kind of power from the left side doesn’t often exist. At worst, the team taking him has a lefty setup man who could move quickly. But there might be more there.
ESPN:
The genius of college coaches: Chris Reed, a 6-foot-4 left-hander who sits 92-94 as a reliever with two off-speed pitches that will at least flash above-average, has made exactly one start this year for Stanford, instead working out of the pen where he’s been successful but wasted.
Reed adds a sharp, short slider in the 82-84 mph range to that fastball and will show a very hard-fading changeup in the upper 70s, throwing strikes with all three pitches but not yet showing the fastball command he’ll need to start in the big leagues. He comes from a slot just under three-quarters and repeats his delivery well enough to start, although he could stay upright longer and get more downhill plane on the fastball. Many scouts like Reed as a potential starter, and we know he can pitch in the bullpen if that doesn’t work out, but I like his chances to end up a No. 2 or 3 starter once he’s stretched out.
Jim Callis, Baseball America:
LHP Chris Reed had late helium, goes to #Dodgers here. Signability had to count, but is a LHP who shows three plus pitches.
16. LAD – Chris Reed, lhp, Stanford – Athletic lefthander will get a shot to start as a pro thanks to a mid-90s fastball and 3-pitch mix
Jim Bowden at ESPN live chat:
Dodgers took Chris Reed…..was Stanfords closer…like Drew Storen, great make-up, intelligent…signable, quick to major leagues…..wipe out slider….Big physical power lefty 92-94 good change-up…nasty nasty movement….will become a starter for them…..this was a great reach down and take my guy draft by Logan White who’s history includes the drafting of Clayton Kershaw…..I love this pick here
Kevin Goldstein at ESPN live chat:
Reed is a long-armed lefty with average velocity, average breaker and good changeup. Still needs a lot of refinement, as he didn’t pitch that much until this year. Seen by many as a supplemental or 2nd round talent.
Some higher-level pitchers had fallen, and no one really thinks that Reed was the best player still available. However, we all know that the Dodgers were constricted financially here, and Reed sounds like an easy sign. Still, that doesn’t mean that’s the only reason he was selected; clearly, some of the experts like this pick, and he’s coming off an excellent spring. More later.
Dee Gordon Arrives, But Is the Timing Right?
June 6, 2011 at 1:52 pm | Posted in Dee Gordon, Jay Gibbons | 40 Comments
I dipped out of a slow day at work early today to enjoy the weather and run some errands, keeping one eye on Twitter for the inevitable roster move news. We’d all expected that when Blake Hawksworth, Marcus Thames, & Juan Uribe were activated, John Ely, Ivan DeJesus, and probably Jerry Sands would be shipped off to take their places. Yesterday, I had prepared a post about how Sands heading down wouldn’t be a bad thing, despite the negative response I expected from fans, planning to hit publish while out and about today. In it, I noted that Matt Kemp & Clayton Kershaw had each returned to the minors after making their debuts, and how doing the same for the slumping Sands might not be the worst thing in the world – and I got to compare Juan Castro to a potted plant. It would have been great.
Well, that’s a post that will never see the light of day, because the Dodgers threw us a series of curveballs by making four roster moves today. Yes, Hawksworth, Thames, and Uribe are all back. Yes, Ely and DeJesus got shipped out. But so did veterans Juan Castro and Jay Gibbons. And joining the club, most surprisingly of all, is young shortstop Dee Gordon. As I write this draft on a crowded subway train home, I am, quite frankly, stunned.
Let’s start with the small fish first. Hawksworth for Ely was expected, particularly after Ely threw over 50 pitches yesterday, and so was Uribe for DeJesus. Each move represents an upgrade. Gibbons getting a DFA for Thames is far more surprising, though not entirely unwelcome. I’ve been pretty clear for a while in saying that Gibbons provides little value on either offense or defense, though I didn’t think they’d send out the lefty bat, and I wasn’t against Sands getting a minor league breather. Gibbons is almost certain to pass through waivers and report to ABQ anyway, so we might not have seen the last of him. This decision to stick with the young Sands over the veteran Gibbons is really one that deserves more attention, but it’ll be brushed under the rug because of the Gordon move.
I really can’t say enough how surprised I am that Gordon is coming to replace Castro. First and foremost, credit is due the Dodgers for finally deciding to stop wasting a roster spot on the completely useless Castro, though I suppose it’s not like he is any more useless now than when they chose to sign him in the first place. (Or the time before that, or the time before that…) Like Gibbons, he won’t be claimed so we may yet see stint #5 from the ageless, hitless, gloveless wonder.
All of this takes us to Gordon, and I must admit that I am torn. He’s the most exciting player the Dodgers have in their system, and a roster spot used on him rather than Castro pushes the team light-years ahead as far as watchability and interest. Yet, the speed of his promotion is difficult to wrap my head around. Many observers, myself included, expected him to start 2011 in AA, and were somewhat surprised that he was pushed to ABQ to start the year. In an offense-heavy environment, he has a good-but-not-stellar line of .315/.361/.370. (Lest you think I’m being too harsh, remember that this is the team on which career nothing JD Closser is hitting .298/.389/.529.) Not a single reputable analyst expected him here this quickly, and when I interviewed Christopher Jackson, who covers the ‘topes daily, he joked that if Gordon were put in the majors right now, he’d break Jose Offerman‘s errors record. As we’ve all heard so many times, Gordon, who didn’t play baseball seriously until high school, is an extremely raw prospect, and not the type likely to be rushed.
I bring this up not to be the wet blanket. I’m excited to see Dee Gordon play. I’m really excited to not see Juan Castro play. I’m just curious about the timing of all this, and how the Dodgers see themselves in the 2011 season. If you bring him up, you have to play him every day. It does no good for his development to be sitting on the bench. But if he plays every day, he’s likely to commit a ton of errors and may or may not be able to hit major league pitching. As I said in the tabled Sands piece, Kemp and Kershaw each had early struggles and were sent back down, and both were more highly touted than Gordon. If the Dodgers see themselves as a team that can win in 2011, will they suffer through the inevitable growing pains? Will they be okay with the fact that he’s almost certain to cost them a game or more with a defensive miscue? Will they really bench Juan Uribe and/or Jamey Carroll on a regular basis to let Gordon play?
We’ll have to see how this plays out to get the answers to those questions. I’ll say this about the Dodgers, however; though much of this is because of all of the injuries they’re fighting through, the 2011 edition has committed to youngsters like we haven’t seen in years. We’ll see that in full display this week against one of the NL’s top teams in Philadelphia, where Sands is starting tonight, Rubby De La Rosa goes tomorrow, and Gordon is likely to make his debut.
Welcome aboard, Dee. Can’t wait to see what you can do.
******
Not to be lost in all the furor today – as I joked on Twitter, “based on my Twitter feed of the last 2 hours, Anthony Weiner tweeted a Dee Gordon dong shot to Paul Revere” – is the creative lineup that Don Mattingly has put together tonight:
Tonight’s #Dodgers lineup: Carroll SS, Miles 2B, Thames LF, Kemp CF, Uribe 3B, Blake 1B, Sands RF, Barajas C, Lilly P
Okay, I suppose I’m not a huge fan of Thames hitting third, but look at what he’s done against one of the toughest lefties in the game, Cliff Lee. Andre Ethier, benched. James Loney, benched. Three righties in the outfield! Casey Blake at first! Whether this works or not – and don’t bet on it, since Lee has held current Dodgers to a .088/.099/.113 line in 81 PA – it’s what we’ve been calling for forever, and I love Mattingly for it. Actually, maybe that’s the answer to the “will the Dodgers play Gordon over Uribe or Carroll” question above. Put one of them at 3B, play Blake at 1B, and now you’ve got Gordon over Loney. Now we’re getting somewhere.
Chad Billingsley Does it Backwards
June 5, 2011 at 11:02 am | Posted in Chad Billingsley | 31 Comments
Chad Billingsley, on the mound, struggled through a hot day in Cincinnati, needing 106 pitches to get through five innings. The Reds got to him almost immediately when Drew Stubbs homered on the second pitch of the game, and he allowed four more baserunners and two runs in the second. Billingsley was unable to get through any of his five innings without allowing a man to reach, and only once did he have an inning where at least two didn’t reach. (It should be noted that he essentially made it through the 4th inning cleanly, but an atrocious safe call at first on Stubbs’ bunt helped put the fourth run on the board.)
Usually, that’s a recipe for disaster, because I hardly need to remind you of all the times that Billingsley or other Dodger starters have gone deep into games, allowing zero or one runs, yet have nothing better to show for it than a loss or a no-decision. But not today, because the Dodger offense exploded, led by none other than… Chad Billingsley. Billingsley homered, doubled, and walked, driving in three. He’s now got four RBI on the season, which is one less than Jamey Carroll; I bring this up to illustrate how loony it is that anyone still bothers using RBI as any sort of indicator, when a pitcher can have almost as many as an infielder with over 200 plate appearances who we all regard as valuable. He could have had more; the Dodgers loaded the bases in the bottom of the fifth when James Loney, hitting 8th, drew his third walk of the day. It seemed clear at the time that Billingsley was done on the mound, but rather than allow him to hit, Don Mattingly chose to send up Ivan DeJesus, who grounded out to end the threat. Personally, I would have probably let Billingsley hit, even if you knew he wasn’t going to stay in to pitch, and saved DeJesus in case you needed him later.
John Ely followed with three-plus innings, allowing two runs while generally living on the edge, but was pulled in the ninth after he walked the leadoff man. Unfortunately, he couldn’t finish it off himself, because despite the score he would have recorded a save thanks to the length of his outing. Ely would have been the seventh Dodger to record a save this year; the team (and NL) record is 11, set in 1941 and tied in 1946 & 1979. Josh Lindblom then walked & hit the first two batters he saw, loading the bases with no outs and allowing both the Reds to bring the tying run to the plate and me to reach for a defibrillator. With Dodger fans nationwide panicking after seeing how the Dodgers had come back in this very park the day before, he got Paul Janish to pop out and Chris Heisey to hit a sacrifice fly, scoring one. Drew Stubbs came to the plate with two hits under his belt, but Lindblom held the door with his first major league strikeout.
Oh, and Matt Kemp homered – again – and reached base five times. I’m already going to need to revise his march on the Dodger record books that I had earlier today, aren’t I?
******
Expect as many as three roster moves before tomorrow’s series opener in Philadelphia, with Blake Hawksworth, Juan Uribe, and Marcus Thames all ready to return. My money is on Ely, DeJesus, and Jerry Sands heading out.
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