Brett Myers Dominates Dodgers

The problem tonight was not that the Dodgers lost to the Houston Astros, the worst team in baseball by both record and run differential. Even a lousy team like this year’s Astros will win something like 65 games. It happens.

It’s not even that they got completely overwhelmed by by Brett Myers, who set down 17 in a row at one point despite entering the game with a 5.03 ERA and a league-leading 18 homers allowed. It’s also not just that Ted Lilly‘s final line (five earned runs on eight hits) was ugly, because he was doing fine until allowing five hits in the sixth inning.

The problem is that they were boring. This was almost an utterly unwatchable game from the beginning to nearly the end, not that there were a lot of people in the park to witness it anyway, judging by the empty seats masquerading as the announced 35,000+ in attendance. After scoring in the first inning on a Dee Gordon walk (his first) and hits by Aaron Miles & James Loney, the Dodgers… well, that was it, really. Loney singled again in the seventh, and was immediately wiped out by a Juan Uribe double play. Gordon reached again in the ninth on a Brett Wallace error, and came home on an Andre Ethier homer (his first in 19 games) to make the final 7-3. Myers finished his complete game on 97 pitches, which as Eric Stephen reports, is the first time the Dodgers have suffered a complete game loss at home on less than 100 pitches since the immortal Jason Marquis did it in 2009.

After four losses in a row, the Dodgers are now nine games under .500, the most they’ve been since ending the 2005 season at 71-91. At right: the 2011 season.

******

I didn’t really weigh in on the McCourt case much today, but I think it’s largely much ado about nothing. The settlement explicitly says that it only takes effect if Bud Selig approves the FOX contract, which he’s almost certainly not going to do, so this “settlement” could mean little. All that business about an August 4th court date to decide if the team is Frank’s or split 50/50? It’s almost certainly not going to take place. If anything, this just unites the McCourts in what’s an almost inevitable lawsuit against MLB; Frank McCourt, by all accounts, cannot make the June 30th payroll without the cash influx from the contract, and with the issue of Jamie objecting to the deal no longer a concern, Frank will contend that Selig is actively hurting the team. Then he’ll sue MLB, and this will be tied up in the courts for decades to come.

For more, Bill Shaikin has a great Q&A, and don’t miss Steve Dilbeck pointing out that Frank’s assertion that none of the FOX money would go towards his divorce is basically a blatant lie.

How Much Money Is Matt Kemp Earning Himself?


Before 2010, Matt Kemp avoided arbitration by signing a two-year deal worth about $11 million. That deal expires at the end of this season, and Kemp will be arbitration-eligible for a final time in 2012 before reaching free agency at the end of next year. Kemp, of course, is putting up a season that looks more and more like it’ll be one of the best in Dodger history, as he’s on pace to hit 46 homers and steal 37 bases to go along with his .335/.420/.638 line. As the season goes on and the pennant race becomes a more and more distant dream, his contract situation is going to become a hot conversation piece. You can bet that he won’t be settling for two years and $11m again, but just how much money has he made himself with his performance this year?

Any conversation like this must immediately be prefaced with the usual disclaimer about deadbeat owner Frank McCourt and the uncertain financial situation in which the Dodgers find themselves. McCourt’s holding on to the ownership of this club on a bi-weekly basis as he scrambles to make each payroll, so it’s impossible to know what the situation will be when the season ends four months from now. Perhaps McCourt has managed to hang on until then. Maybe MLB will have taken over. It’s unlikely, but possible, that a sale could be in motion by then – or it could be some other scenario we can’t even dream about yet. None of that is going to change the fact that Matt Kemp is an extremely valuable asset who is going to get his money, so let’s pretend for the moment that we’re fans of a real team with responsible owners, and not the disaster we find ourselves in. (Additionally: minutes before I was to post this, I saw that Bill Shaikin is reporting that the McCourts have come to a settlement. We know none of the details yet, but Shaikin, Molly Knight, and Josh Fisher are usually nails on this story, so I won’t let the unknown there delay this post.)

Jon Heyman recently reported that Ned Colletti had initial conversations with Kemp’s agent, Dave Stewart, about a long-term deal, though clearly nothing has come of it yet. Despite Stewart’s well-publicized criticism of the Dodgers last season, that clearly seems to have blown over with the new on-field regime, and he and Colletti did just work together to sign Chad Billingsley to a deal earlier this year. I think every Dodger fan would like to see a long-term deal worked out, but let’s start small first.

What if Kemp goes to arbitration?

The record award for a position player in his third year of arbitration was the $15.5m that Prince Fielder got from the Brewers this past winter. Like Kemp, Fielder was coming off of a two-year deal and had not previously been to arbitration, though his deal had been for $18m, more than Kemp’s $11m. Arbitration panels are notorious for relying upon “old school” stats rather than more advanced methods, so we’ll stick with that here. In 2010, Fielder hit .261 with 32 homers and 83 RBI, scoring 94 runs. Kemp is on pace to top all of those marks this year. As if those numbers didn’t give him enough of an advantage over Fielder, he’s also on pace to steal the 37 bases, while playing a much more valuable defensive position. While Kemp is certainly going to be headed into the process with a better season in his pocket than Fielder, he’s also coming off a smaller contract and an uneven 2010. Those two factors mean that he may not break Fielder’s record, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see him come close. I could see Kemp getting anywhere from $13m-$15m in arbitration.

What if Kemp signs a long-term deal?

This assumes that Kemp wants to sign such a deal with the Dodgers. Outwardly he’s said all the right things, but we can’t really know for sure how frustrated he is with the current mess at the top and lack of talent around him, whether he’s enjoyed hitting on the road so much that he’d rather be away from Dodger Stadium more often, or whether he’d just prefer to be nearer to his Oklahoma roots. For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll figure he’ll want to stay. But at what cost? Let’s compare him to the two outfielders who signed $100m deals last winter, Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford. Like Kemp, each can kind-of sort-of play center field, but are much better situated in an outfield corner. (Age and stats for Werth and Crawford are through 2010, Kemp is to-date.)

Kemp compares favorably to both, and don’t forget that he still has the remainder of this season to complete; at his current pace he’ll overake Werth in WAR and lead all three in home runs. He’s the youngest of the three, and will likely be coming off the best season of any of them.  On the surface, your initial thought might be, “he’s going to get seven years and $130m”.

But while it’s fun to compare him to Werth and Crawford, it’s not entirely accurate. Each were free agents, able to play multiple teams off each other for the highest offer, and Kemp will not have that luxury until after 2012. His negotiating ability is somewhat limited by the fact that he’s still under Dodger control for another year and can’t go out to speak with other teams. So a more accurate comparison would be to players who have signed extensions with their teams that bought out a year or two of arbitration… and that’s where we run into problems.

After doing some research, I’ve found that it’s incredibly difficult to find a good comparison to Kemp. Players of his youth and talent rarely reach the open market, and often don’t even get as close to it as he will. (Crawford made it because everyone knew the cash-strapped Rays couldn’t afford the extension; the Phillies have so many other big-ticket deals that they couldn’t squeeze Werth in as well. Fielder and possibly Albert Pujols are likely to be good case studies this winter.) When I put the question to Twitter last night, looking for extensions that had been signed at a similar point in a player’s career, I got a lot of good suggestions, but none that were close enough. Evan Longoria signed his extension about a week into his MLB career. Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, Dustin Pedroia, Carlos Gonzalez and Justin Upton each signed after roughly two full seasons. Jay Bruce, Nick Markakis and Ryan Zimmerman signed before their first trips to arbitration. Ryan Braun signed an eight-year deal in his second season, then had a bizarre 5/$105m extension added which doesn’t even kick in until 2016. Kemp will have over five years of service time when this season ends – just one more of team control -  and that makes these calculations difficult.

The closest comparables I was able to find were Troy Tulowitzki and Ryan Howard, who each recently signed $100m+ deals to stay with their current clubs. Neither comp is perfect, for reasons I’ll state in a second, but for the moment let’s compare Kemp’s numbers to theirs. (Age and stats for Tulowitzki and Howard are through 2010, Kemp is to-date.)

Tulowitzki, like Kemp, made his debut in the summer of 2006. But he’s also a quality defensive shortstop, and hadn’t gone year-to-year like Kemp; after just over one full season, he signed a 6/$31m contract following 2007. When he signed his mammoth 10/$157.5m deal after 2010, it replaced the final three years of that deal. Howard’s situation is even more complicated (and controversial). He’s older than both and plays a less valuable position, and won a $10m contract in his first year of arbitration in 2008, then signed a 3/$54m deal to avoid going to arbitration a second time in 2009. That deal would have bought out his arbitration years and made him a free agent after this season… except that in April of 2010, the Phillies tacked on a ludicrous 5/$125m extension that doesn’t even kick in until 2012. If Kemp keeps up his current pace, he’ll top Tulo’s WAR and would come close to matching Howard’s.

All of which is a long way of saying, there hasn’t been a recent example like Kemp to point to. If he decides to play out his last year and hit the market, and has another good year in 2012, he’s likely looking at a massive $100m+ contract somewhere. If he signs a deal with the Dodgers, he’ll still get a hefty fee, but without the open market at play he’d probably have to leave some money on the table in exchange for avoiding the risk that would come with an injury or poor performance next season.

So let’s spitball this. It seems clear that if he finishes this season the way he started it, Kemp’s value on the open market could be between $15m-$20m a year. (I’m doing my best to avoid the fact that Howard got $25m a year well into his 30s, which is so insane I can’t even talk about it.) If he signed with the Dodgers (again, acting like we follow a real team) following 2011, he’d probably get on the lower end of that because he’s not a free agent and would pass up the 2012 risk. He’s also young enough that he might not want a 7-8 year deal like we’ve seen here, figuring that he could sign another big deal at around 31. So let’s start the bidding at… 5 years, $80m. Would you do that? Would he?

Listless Dodgers Fall Further Behind

This should be a picture of sad Billingsley, but I'd prefer to look at acrobatic Dee right now.

For the fourth time in five starts, Chad Billingsley allowed more than four earned runs, and the Dodgers were unable to avoid a sweep at the hands of Cincinnati. Jon Weisman over at DodgerThoughts (before the game was even over, no less!) summed up Billingsley’s troubles succinctly:

Chad Billingsley through the end of May: 75 1/3 innings, 71 strikeouts, 100 baserunners, 3.46 ERA.

Chad Billingsley in June, including today’s game: 13 2/3 innings, nine strikeouts, 43 baserunners, 11.19 ERA.

This is an issue that requires an in-depth look. Unfortunately, you’re not getting that today, because who really wants to think more about this team right now? I can’t be the only one looking forward to a 48-hour break from Dodger baseball, right?

As usual, any semblance of offense came from the top half, as Dee Gordon, Jamey Carroll, Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp combined for six of the eight Dodger hits, with another – also, seemingly, as usual – coming from the pitcher, Billingsley. (Aaron Miles collected the final hit as a pinch-hitter in the 8th.)

At 31-39 after the sweep, the Dodgers are eight games under .500 and 8.5 games out of first, pending San Francisco’s date with Arizona tonight. As I noted last night, by losing today they’re further under .500 than they’ve been since July 26, 2006. How long ago was that? The infield that day was Olmedo Saenz (1B), Willy Aybar (2B), Rafael Furcal (SS), and Cesar Izturis (3B). That’s right – it was so long ago that Rafael Furcal was actually playing in games. It should, of course, be noted that the 2006 club did rebound to make the playoffs.

See Dee Run

(Will all of this crash your browser? Uh, possibly. Apologies if so. If it does, then add “your computer” to the long list of things that cannot keep up with Dee Gordon.)

See Dee score the first Dodger run:

See Dee start a double play with a backhand stab:


See Dee put down a lousy bunt but use his speed to essentially create a double:


See Dee steal third:

Sure, all of that masks the fact that the Dodgers lost again, with a solid one-run effort from Clayton Kershaw obscured by the usual lack of offense. (That’s now 35 times in which they’ve scored three runs or fewer.) Yes, the bullpen again did no favors, allowing two runs which proved to be the difference, though at least Mike MacDougal finally allowed a run that counts against his own ledger. And it’s true that the loss drops them to seven games under .500, just a game out of last place, and if they lose tomorrow’s matinee, it’ll be the first time they fall more than seven games underwater since July of 2006 – nearly five years.

All of the above is true, but who wants to talk about that? Dee Gordon‘s electricity is providing us with a reason to tune in each night. There’s plenty of time to talk about all the rest of it; for the moment, that’s good enough.

Dee Gordon Is Never Boring

Dee Gordon may be a lot of things, but boring will never be one of them. When he was recalled last week, I noted that he’d electrify us all with his game-changing speed and highlight-reel plays in the field, but that he was extremely raw and with those assets would come miscues, particularly on defense. That’s exactly what happened last night; as Jon Weisman at DodgerThoughts and Tony Jackson at ESPNLA describe more fully, Gordon was speeding around the bases for a triple, beating a perfect throw home on a sacrifice fly, effortlessly making outstanding defensive plays… and booting a relatively simple grounder to start the 7th inning, an inning in which the Reds scored four to put the game away. That came after a play in the second inning in which Gordon mistimed his approach to the bag on a sure double play ball, and only got one out; with the runner safe on second, the Reds ended up getting their first run of the game later in the inning. This loss isn’t just on Gordon, as the bullpen faltered, Aaron Miles also made an error, and the collective offensive output of Gordon’s teammates was five singles. Still, if we’re going to appreciate his energy, we’re going to have to accept these mistakes as they come.

Getting back to the relief corps, as if the Dodgers needed more bullpen concerns (particularly with the news that Vicente Padilla requires neck surgery and is likely lost for the season), Matt Guerrier has been struggling terribly of late. It’s no secret that I disliked the three-year deal he was given (multiyear deals to non-elite middle relievers almost never work out), but I accepted that he’d be a decent addition to the pen, and over the first two months he was relatively reliable as the group around him changed almost daily. But over his last four games, Guerrier’s been quite ineffective each time out:

Rk Date Opp IP H R ER BB SO HR BF 3B
30 Jun 7 PHI 0.2 0 1 1 1 0 0 3 0
31 Jun 8 PHI 1.0 1 1 1 0 1 0 5 1
32 Jun 11 COL 1.0 3 2 2 0 1 0 6 0
33 Jun 13 CIN 0.2 1 2 2 2 0 1 5 0
33.0 32 17 16 15 24 1 144
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/14/2011.

Kenley Jansen is eligible to come off the disabled list and may or may not need one more rehab assignment, making him likely to return to the club this week. Guerrier could use the help, as he’s appeared in 33 games, 7th most in baseball, and the last few have been ugly. The bullpen has been held together with duct tape and string so far, and the club really can’t afford another issue right now.

The failure of the bullpen and the inability of the offense to overcome it really has to make you feel for Hiroki Kuroda, as Steve Dilbeck points out at the LA Times blog. Kuroda was once 5-3, but has now been hung with five consecutive losses to push him down to 5-8. On the surface, it sounds like he’s struggled, but we know better; the Dodgers have scored eight total runs for him in those five games. While he deserves his share of the blame for the first two, games in which he allowed four and five earned runs, he’s allowed a grand total of five earned over his last three starts. All of them go in the books as losses, despite his season xFIP of 3.50.

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Over at the Dingers blog, Seth was lucky enough to sit down with Chad Billingsley for a great look at pitch sequencing. Billingsley was already one of our favorite pitchers, but it appears he has at least some familiarity with sabermetric principles. Well worth the click and the read.