2011 June « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness

Matt Kemp In Position To Set Dodger Records

June 5, 2011 at 8:09 am | Posted in Matt Kemp | 16 Comments

After yesterday‘s two homer, six RBI outburst, Matt Kemp is currently on pace for an absolutely ridiculous season. No, really; he’d end the year with a .318/.395/.576 line, 41 homers, 38 steals (8 times caught), and a 151/74 K/BB ratio. While it’s still early and there’s hardly any sort of guarantee that he reaches those totals, we’re beyond the silly season of two homers on Opening Day setting a pace of 324 for the year, and we have enough data to know that what we’re seeing from him is for real. (It’s at this point that I’ll happily remind that I spent most of last fall and winter predicting a huge breakout year from him, though I’ll admit this is even beyond what I’d hoped for.)

If Kemp continues this tear, these team records are within his reach:

* Best offensive season by a Dodger center fielder. For a team with the heritage of the Dodgers, they really haven’t had a ton of memorable center fielders. Other than Duke Snider, who has 7 of the top 14 seasons by OPS+, you have a few good years from Jimmy Wynn or an occasional standout year from a Pete Reiser or a Brett Butler. Kemp, playing in a tougher hitter’s park than Snider had in Ebbets Field, is just a hair out of the all-time lead.

Rk	Player	OPS+	Year	Age	G	PA	R	H	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Duke Snider	171	1954	27	149	679	120	199	40	130	84	96	.341	.423	.647	1.071
2	Matt Kemp	170	2011	26	59	248	36	69	15	46	27	55	.318	.395	.576	.971
3	Duke Snider	169	1955	28	148	653	126	166	42	136	104	87	.309	.418	.628	1.046
4	Duke Snider	165	1953	26	153	680	132	198	42	126	82	90	.336	.419	.627	1.046
5	Pete Reiser	163	1941	22	137	601	117	184	14	76	46	71	.343	.406	.558	.964

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/5/2011.

You know what stands out the most to me in that list? The numbers in bold are stats that led the league, and Snider struck out more than anyone in 1954… with just 96. How times have changed.

* Most homers in a season, non-crazy-offensive-environment-of-early-2000s division. This is cheating just a bit, I admit, and Kemp isn’t going to reach Shawn Green‘s club record of 49. But take a look at the top five homer seasons in Dodger history, won’t you?

Rk	Player	HR	Year	Age	PA	R	H	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Shawn Green	49	2001	28	701	121	184	125	72	107	.297	.372	.598	.970
2	Adrian Beltre	48	2004	25	657	104	200	121	53	87	.334	.388	.629	1.017
3	Gary Sheffield	43	2000	31	612	105	163	109	101	71	.325	.438	.643	1.081
4	Duke Snider	43	1956	29	652	112	158	101	99	101	.292	.399	.598	.997
5	Shawn Green	42	2002	29	685	110	166	114	93	112	.285	.385	.558	.944

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/5/2011.

Call it a league diluted by expansion, call it PEDs, call it a juiced baseball, call it whatever you want, but it’s hard to ignore that in a franchise that’s been in existence for well over a century, four of the top five power years came in a five-season stretch in one of the most notorious offensive eras in baseball history. Besides, Beltre’s a fine player, but has only once ever even reached even 28 homers in any other season. That’s not to set those accomplishments aside – neither Green nor Beltre was ever really at the forefront of any real enhancing worries – but they were clearly playing a different game than Kemp is now, even though it was less than a decade ago. Besides them, Snider’s record of 43, which stood for 44 years, is within Kemp’s reach.

* Top five most valuable season in team history. Kemp’s bWAR is at 2.9 right now, and we’ve played 36.4% of the season. Extrapolate that over 162 games, and he’d be at ~7.9. That’d put him behind only Beltre’s 2004, Mike Piazza‘s 1997, and Wynn’s 1974.

Rk	Player	WAR/pos	Year	Age	PA	H	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Adrian Beltre	10.1	2004	25	657	200	48	121	53	87	7	2	.334	.388	.629	1.017
2	Mike Piazza	9.3	1997	28	633	201	40	124	69	77	5	1	.362	.431	.638	1.070
3	Jim Wynn	8.6	1974	32	656	145	32	108	108	104	18	15	.271	.387	.497	.884
4	Pedro Guerrero	7.8	1985	29	581	156	33	87	83	68	12	4	.320	.422	.577	.999
5	Willie Davis	7.6	1964	24	652	180	12	77	22	59	42	13	.294	.316	.413	.729

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/5/2011.

Good lord, look at Wynn’s K/BB rate that year. 104/108? Unreal.

* RBI by a Los Angeles Dodger, non-Tommy Davis-unreal-fluke-year-division. In 1962, 23-year-old Tommy Davis, playing mostly left field and third base, drove in 153 runs. Davis had a quality career in parts of 18 seasons, yet never once drove in 90 runs in any other season. How’d that happen? Davis’ career-high 230 hits certainly helped, though I’m guessing hitting behind Maury Wills (104 SB) and Jim Gilliam (.372 OBP) didn’t hurt his cause either. Fluke? Fluke. Kemp, on pace for 126, would have the second-highest mark of any LA Dodger.

Rk	Player	RBI	Year	Age	Tm	PA	R	H	HR	BB	IBB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
1	Tommy Davis	153	1962	23	LAD	711	120	230	27	33	6	65	.346	.374	.535	.910	*758/9
2	Shawn Green	125	2001	28	LAD	701	121	184	49	72	10	107	.297	.372	.598	.970	*9/83
3	Mike Piazza	124	1997	28	LAD	633	104	201	40	69	11	77	.362	.431	.638	1.070	*2/D
4	Adrian Beltre	121	2004	25	LAD	657	104	200	48	53	9	87	.334	.388	.629	1.017	*5/6
5	Frank Howard	119	1962	25	LAD	538	80	146	31	39	10	108	.296	.346	.560	.906	*9/7

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/5/2011.

(Yes, RBI are stupid. But don’t think that the media and a majority of fans wouldn’t make a big deal over a large RBI total.)

*****

Clearly, Kemp’s having a season for the ages, but it might be even better than that. One thing I couldn’t really check for was “best season by a guy surrounded by minor leaguers.” Beltre had Green, Jayson Werth, Milton Bradley, and Paul LoDuca around him in 2004. Snider had the classic “Boys of Summer” lineup on his side. Other than Andre Ethier and possibly Jamey Carroll, who does Kemp have? Not nearly enough, but in a season that is quickly slipping away, at least we have Matt Kemp.

The Injury Merry-go-round Keeps On Spinning

June 4, 2011 at 9:50 am | Posted in Ivan DeJesus, John Ely, Jon Garland, Rafael Furcal | 20 Comments

Per the official Dodgers Twitter feed, Rafael Furcal and Jon Garland have each been placed on the disabled list, as the team will go with a 23-man roster going forward. I suppose that’s only half true – Ivan DeJesus and John Ely are headed to join the team for the third and second time this season, respectively – but based on how little we saw DeJesus in his previous stints, there’s little reason to believe he’ll get any more of a shot now, particularly with Juan Uribe expected to return in the next 24-48 hours. Actually, I’m not even sure why DeJesus is bothering to get on the plane; when Uribe is activated, is there really any chance they’re not just going to send him right back down so they can keep Juan Castro?

As for Ely, he’s had a very bizarre season in Albuquerque. He dazzled Reno, one of the top hitting clubs in the PCL, with a three-hit shutout on May 22. But in his two starts since, he’s been crushed, allowing 11 baserunners in three innings to New Orleans on May 29, and then nine hits (including two homers) to Memphis on Wednesday. What makes all that so weird is that for all we’ve heard about the high-offense environment of Albuquerque, the Reno shutout was at home, while the last two disasters have been on the road. While there’s some argument to be made that he should get Garland’s start in order to protect Rubby De La Rosa, the team has made it pretty clear that de la Rosa will get the ball, and Ely’s poor last two times out makes it hard to dispute that. That said, he’ll probably be used in tandem, as de la Rosa’s unlikely to go deep into that game.

We’re still awaiting an official report on Furcal, but all indications are that he’s pulled his oblique muscle, an injury that can take weeks to heal even in the best of conditions. Furcal’s hardly wowed us with his durability, so I wouldn’t expect to see him until at least mid-July. That doesn’t leave a whole lot of time for him to get healthy and productive to impress any potential suitors before the deadline, which, as you can tell, is my main priority right now. I sure hope Hiroki Kuroda enjoys pinstripes, though.

Dodger Injuries Outnumber Dodger Runs

June 3, 2011 at 7:19 pm | Posted in Hiroki Kuroda, Rafael Furcal | 9 Comments

You’d think that’s a title which would represent a complete and utter rarity, but the way this season has gone… not so much. On the same day we found out that Jon Garland was headed to the disabled list with right shoulder soreness (though the move was not officially made, because Vicente Padilla was apparently not ready), shortstop Rafael Furcal injured himself for approximately the 59th time in his Dodger career. This time, he hurt his side on a throw to third during a rundown play, not that the details really matter. He’s officially listed as “day to day”, which means we can expect him back sometime in late August. While we await news on the severity of his injury, if he does end up heading back to the DL, I’ll place full blame on Juan Castro, who was almost certain to lose his job this weekend when Juan Uribe gets activated.

As for the game, Hiroki Kuroda struggled through six innings, needing 114 pitches to get that far and ended up walking more than he struck out for the first time in well over a year. Despite that – and allowing four baserunners in the second inning – he still managed to hold the Reds scoreless through four innings, before allowing two in the fifth on two walks and two singles. While his ability to keep the Reds off the board on a night when he clearly didn’t have his best stuff was admirable, it’s basically irrelevant in the end, as the Dodger offense once again failed to do any damage.

Bronson Arroyo breezed through six innings, running into trouble only in the fourth, when the Dodgers loaded the bases with none out on hits by Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp and a pitch that hit Jay Gibbons. Unfortunately for the Dodgers, Ethier and Kemp can’t let Tony Gwynn and crew come take their spots on the bases and then head back to the plate, because as usual, they received no support from their supporting cast. James Loney heroically drove in Ethier with a sacrifice fly, proving his clutchness, but Kemp got caught in a rundown and was tagged out. Dioner Navarro grounded out, and that was the end of that threat – and basically the game. The Dodgers had just two hits in the ensuing five innings against Arroyo, Logan Ondrusek, Nick Masset, and Francisco Cordero, and they both came from – wait for it – Ethier and Kemp. Shocking, I know; of the six Dodger hits, four came from the dynamic duo. The rest of the team combined to go 2-29, and stop me if you’ve heard that one before.

If there was one bright sign from tonight’s game, it was Scott Elbert, who was called in to a tough situation in the 7th, with a man on second and one out. He faced Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, two of the the hottest hitters on the planet right now, and retired them easily, striking out Votto and inducing Bruce into a popup.

It’s great to see Elbert finally having some major league success, for a variety of different reasons. It’s also kind of a problem when the highlight of the game is a middle reliever getting some outs. Well, at least we have the starting debut of Rubby De La Rosa to look forward to. Right?

Remember The Last Time Hiroki Kuroda Pitched in Cincinnati?

June 3, 2011 at 12:58 pm | Posted in Hiroki Kuroda, Jon Garland | 22 Comments

June 15, 2010 – “A Weird, Wet, Worrisome Win”. After pointing out how awesome it was that the team won 12-0 and that Rafael Furcal had five hits and two great defensive plays, we get into Hiroki Kuroda and Joe Torre:

Yet, all I can think about are the beyond perplexing and downright disturbing decisions by Joe Torre. Not to focus on the negative in what was otherwise a fun game, but his choices here could have a far-reaching impact on the future.

Remember, Billingsley’s been on the DL for about six hours, long enough for me to write a post discussing how close the Dodgers are to a full-blown rotation emergency. That means it should be fresh in your mind that above all else, you protect your remaining starters, because if anything happens to any of them, this club is in enormous trouble. So while it was disappointing that Hiroki Kuroda‘s outstanding start was interrupted by the rain on a night you’d hoped he could give you innings, you happily take your 6-0 lead and you toss out a Justin Miller, or a George Sherrill, or a Jeff Weaver, and you run them out there until their arms fall off, knowing that you’ll need your important arms later this week and that Travis Schlichting is on his way to Ohio tomorrow.

What you absolutely do not do, under any circumstances, is run your 35-year-old starter with a history of injuries back to the mound after he’d been down for well over 2.5 hours (the delay was 2:24, but the Dodgers were batting before and after).

So Kuroda went back out for the fifth, and predictably loaded the bases on two hits and a walk. He managed to get out of it without allowing a run, but not before needing 27 pitches to do so and nearly letting the Reds back into the game.

Letting Kuroda go back out, at an enormous risk, bought the Dodgers… well, what, exactly? He pitched just one inning after the delay, so the argument that Torre wanted to save the bullpen for this week’s gauntlet doesn’t fly. No, the most likely scenario is also the most terrifying one: Torre wanted Kuroda to qualify for the win. You know, a “win”, an utterly meaningless statistic, but even less meaningful to a manager whose only responsibility here should be to get his team out of this game without any major injuries.

It’s almost unspeakably reckless.

Kuroda, to his credit, held up fine after the game, but it doesn’t change the decision-making. I’ll say this: Don Mattingly hasn’t been perfect, but when you consider the ridiculous amount of injuries he’s had to deal with, I like him approximately 100000x times more than Torre. If not more.

******

Today over at Reds blog Reds Reporter, I answered some Dodger questions. Fun comment section over there.

******

Update: …and then there’s this from Ken Gurnick.

The Dodgers are expected to activate reliever Vicente Padilla from the disabled list Friday, but a corresponding move is not yet clear.

One possibility involves starter Jon Garland, who was not on the team flight out of Los Angeles on Thursday. If Garland is the one, it could mean a start for rookie Rubby De La Rosa, who has been used exclusively in relief since he was promoted, but has been and is considered a starting pitcher.

Earlier this week, we thought for sure it would be Ramon Troncoso, Javy Guerra, or Josh Lindblom going down for Padilla, but this is certainly news. Garland has been dealing with a blister problem, though I can’t say for sure if that’s the injury that would disable him here. Or, it could be nothing at all: Garland isn’t scheduled to pitch until Tuesday in Philadelphia. Not being on the flight could be little more than a personal issue that delays him for a day or two, with him meeting the team over the weekend or in Philadelphia on Monday.

Update 2: Okay, maybe Garland is going on the DL. About 50 seconds into this radio hit today, Ned Colletti says that “someone else is going on in the next 24 hours.”

Update 3: Tony Jackson all but confirms it. Garland to DL.

Dodgers Face Steep Historical Odds

June 2, 2011 at 8:32 am | Posted in history | 48 Comments

Kemp and the Dodgers are looking up at 3 teams in the division

Over at SI.com, Tom Verducci lays some harsh truth on us, looking at the historical precedent for teams who entered June at least five games under .500 and five games out of first place.

I looked at where every team stood in the standings through May 31 in the 15 full seasons with the wild card format (1996-2010). I checked the closest they were to any playoff spot, whether it was the division title or the wild card. Here are the facts:

• Of the 143 teams that began June at least five games under .500, 136 didn’t make the playoffs — a 95.1 percent failure rate.

• Of the 184 teams at least five games out of any playoff spot, 174 didn’t make the playoffs — a 94.6 percent failure rate.

• Of the 126 teams both at least five games under and five games out, 121 didn’t make the playoffs, a 96.0 failure rate.

After last night’s loss to Ubaldo Jimenez and the Rockies, the Dodgers now stand six games under .500 and 5.5 games out of first. It’s tough to think that this team, one that we knew was severely flawed even before the season started and the massive injuries occurred, is going to be the one that bucks history. That’s particularly true when you look at the other members of Verducci’s “five out and five under” club, some of whom came back with either a historic hot streak (17 wins in 18 games for the 2009 Rockies) or overwhelming offense (968 runs for the 2007 Yankees). It’s not like those teams had to deal with the crippling off-the-field issues this crew is facing, either.

This all seems pretty bleak, but I’m not completely ready to give up hope just yet, because the Dodgers do have a few things in their favor. First, there’s no runaway favorite in the NL West. Who really thinks that Arizona is going to stick in first place all season? While I do think the Giants and Rockies are each more talented clubs than the Dodgers, neither have been able to put the pieces together just yet – and the Giants could really be in trouble now that Buster Posey is gone and last year’s collection of mediocre veterans having perfectly-timed career years have predictably turned back into pumpkins. Being in a weak division is how one other member of Verducci’s group made it back – the 2007 Cubs, who won the Central with just 85 wins.

Second, the Dodgers are slowly getting healthy. Rafael Furcal and Casey Blake have each returned, and Vicente Padilla, Marcus Thames, and Juan Uribe all should be back within the next week. Those three might not be the most appealing names, I grant, but the more we have of them, the less we need to suffer through names like Lance Cormier, Juan Castro, and Russ Mitchell. Plus, as Jon Weisman points out at Dodger Thoughts, the bullpen vacuum has led to some unexpected contributions from younger members of the system. If this team ever gets to full strength, it’s not too hard to see them playing better than they have been.

In addition, I think the numbers Verducci uses are just a bit skewed. Sure, it sounds bad to say that 96 percent of the teams who were down and out at the end of May never made it back – but how many of those were never expected to do anything in the first place? Just to pick out a random example, it’s hardly relevant here that the 2009 Nationals, who were 15 games out and 18 games under at the end of May, finished 59-103. This Dodger team isn’t necessarily a good one, but they still have hope at this point, and so many of those other clubs never did.

For a team that’s faced all sorts of adversity this year, having the historical odds stacked against them like this seems like just another hurdle among many. And to be honest, I don’t think they’ll do it, and I do think we’ll be sitting here in July pointing to this post as we pull out our hair watching young players get traded for mediocre veterans in a futile attempt to remain relevant. But history aside, it’s not over quite yet – and it’s too soon to act as though it is.