Dodgers Shock Baseball by Trading Trayvon Robinson For Organizational Depth
July 31, 2011 at 2:13 pm | Posted in Juan Rodriguez, Stephen Fife, Tim Federowicz, Trayvon Robinson | 110 Comments
I… am… speechless.
About 30 seconds after the deadline passed, I tried to hit publish on a post titled “Trade Deadline Passes Quietly for Dodgers”. WordPress blew up as I did, and the post never made it live. It included the line that I’m pretty sure I’m glad WP ate, “But let’s look at this in a positive light: being mildly disappointed at the lack of deals is far better than freaking out over the idea that Scott Podsednik, Ryan Theriot, and Octavio Dotel are improvements, right?”
Yeah… about that.
Shortly after the deadline, word broke that the Red Sox had traded for Erik Bedard. Okay, nothing unexpected there. Then Twitter blew up – I mean, literally exploded in a firey hellscape of “WAIT, WHAT?!” – when the news started to filter that the deal was actually a three-team move, and that the Dodgers had included Trayvon Robinson.
Before we all freak out, here’s the facts: Robinson goes off to the Mariners (via Boston) in exchange for catcher Tim Federowicz, RHP Stephen Fife and RHP Juan Rodriguez. I copied that from someone on Twitter, and I have so many browser tabs open right now that I can’t even pretend to know who it’s from at this point, so deal.
On the players coming in – none of whom I’ve heard of before – here’s the bad news: none of the three made Kevin Goldstein’s preseason list of top 20 Sox prospects at Baseball Prospectus before the season. (Robinson, for what it’s worth, was #4 on the Dodger list; it’s not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison, because the Red Sox system is probably deeper overall, but still.)
Over at SoxProspects.com, none of the three are on that top 20 list either. Federowicz is rated #22 (up from 27 in April), Fife is #32 (up from 39), and Rodriguez is 44 (up from 45). From the same site, quick scouting reports on the three:
Federowicz: (24 next week)
Intelligent catcher with ideal frame and strong core. Line drive hitter. Average power potential as swing is on the flat side. Profiles as a gap-to-gap doubles hitter. Makes best contact on balls down and out over the plate. At times struggles to get his hands above the baseball on higher velocity elevated fastballs. Good pitch recognition skills, but can chase hard breaking balls off the plate. Improving plate discipline. Behind the dish, Federowicz presently is above-average defensively. Plus, accurate arm with a fluid release. Can struggle with his grip when throwing, which causes ball to tail into runners during stretches. Outstanding instincts and reflexes. Excels at staying square to the ball with both his body and glove. Fluid footwork, especially when blocking pitches in the dirt. Improving with game management skills and taking charge of the pitching staff. Below-average speed, but heady on the base paths. Projects as a major league backup catcher, with potential as a second division starter. (emphasis mine - MSTI)
Fife: (25 in October)
Great pitcher’s frame. At Utah, Fife worked middle relief in 2007 and earned a rotation spot for 2008.Two-seam fastball sits between 88-91 mph. Has a four-seamer with more velocity, but doesn’t feature it. Great movement on his two-seamer, tailing down and in on righties. Also works in a biting 76-79 mph curveball and an improving 79-81 mph changeup. Relies mostly on his fastball, but has gone to his curveball as his out pitch on occasion. Working on improving the command of his curve, but has outstanding control overall. Really pounds the strike zone. Fife also has a slider in his arsenal that has been put on the shelf while he works on his curveball. Extreme groundball pitcher. Fares better against righties. Workhorse, went deep into games in college, maintaining velocity well. Ultimately, Fife has a high potential to become a major league pitcher, and whether or not he’s able to become a starter in the bigs depends on how well he hones his secondary stuff. Somewhat jerky delivery with a lot of torque – snaps the ball as it comes out of his hand. Really came on as a draft prospect late in the 2008 NCAA season. Fife missed the first few months of the 2009 season with weakness in his throwing shoulder.
Rodriguez: (23 in December)
Large-framed righty dominated DSL competition in 2009, but was slightly old for the league. Mechanics can use some tuning-up, but he demonstrates a live arm. Attacks hitters. Fastball sits 92-95 mph and shows more life (96-97 mph) in short blasts. Also throws a 79-81 mph slurve, that has some potential if he can sharpen it and get it up in the mid-80s. Lots of projection, but he’s behind the age scale because he signed at 19, unlike many other Latin prospects who sign at 16. Needs to develop his curveball to be starter material. Has accumulated impressive strikeout numbers at every level so far with the Red Sox.
Those reports were all from before the season. Here’s what they’ve done so far in 2011:
Federowicz: .275/.337/.397 at AA (is reportedly considered a “plus defender“, says Yahoo’s Tim Brown. BP’s Marc Normandin concurs, saying “above-average defender, better blocking than throwing, possible doubles power. probably a second division starter, more likely solid backup”)
Fife: 11-4, 3.66 ERA, 6.1 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 at AA (known for “pitchability”, whatever that means)
Rodriguez: 2-4, 5.19 ERA, 13.4 K/9, 4.8 BB/9 at A
Mike Andrew of SoxProspects commented on this on Twitter:
My take: #Red Sox traded 3 Rule 5 eligible B-prospects, each w/ a chance to be MLB role players, & a C-Level prospect w/ marginal MLB future
FWIW, each of Chiang, Fife, & Federowicz are Rule 5 eligible this winter. Rodriguez is the 4th chip – predicted that earlier this week.
Meanwhile, Robinson was tearing it up in AAA: 26 homers, and a .293/.375/.563 line. Lest you think that’s merely a product of ABQ, he’s hitting .306/.394/.585 at home, and .280/.354/.537 on the road. That’s in a hitter-friendly league overall, so take it with the requisite grain of salt, but by all indications he’s on the path to being a solid regular, though maybe something less than a star. Meanwhile, the three prospects coming in return all look to be something less than that.
Obviously, this all came out of nowhere, and we’ll need time to digest it. My initial impression, though? Pretty disappointed, and not just because we’ve all grown to love Robinson and the idea of him coming back to play in his hometown.
If anything, this summary of Ned Colleti’s post-trade interview from Eric Stephen of TrueBlueLA sums it up best:
Synopsis from Ned Colletti: “We need catching…it’s easier to find an OF [on FA market] than it is a catcher.
He then went on to claim that you can create an outfielder, but not a catcher, though his comments were drowned out by Russell Martin and Carlos Santana (among others) laughing. In theory, that idea sounds fine. But in practice? Robinson is a solid outfield prospect with a chance to be much more. Federowicz sounds like a placeholder, and the pitchers are intriguing but little more. Position isn’t everything, otherwise you’d see the Jays trading Jose Bautista for, well, Dioner Navarro. (Actually, you wouldn’t, because the Jays have a real general manager.) I like the idea of Ned trying to address the catching issue (you know, the one he created), but in no way is this the way to do it.
Besides, what in the hell is a team deep in pitching, desperate for offense and with a gaping hole in the outfield doing trading an MLB-ready outfield prospect for a catcher who may or may not be able to hit and two mildly interesting pitchers?
The more I read about this trade, the less I like it. It hurts the Dodgers short term, since Robinson was by all accounts coming up in the next month or so. It probably hurts them long term, if Robinson develops as we hope he will. And I can’t imagine how it must feel for Robinson, expecting a call to LA any day, and instead being told to pack his bags for Seattle.
More to come. I guess.
Update: added Keith Law’s thoughts…
The Dodgers get … I’m not really sure what they get. Tim Federowicz is a catch-and-throw specialist who isn’t likely to produce enough at the plate to be an average regular, but is plus across the board behind the plate (including a career 34-percent caught-stealing rate) and is no worse than a good backup in the majors. Stephen Fife probably profiles as a right-handed reliever rather than a starter because he lacks the out pitch to start; he’ll touch 95 as a starter with a fringe-average curveball. Juan Rodriguez has a plus fastball, no average second pitch, and below-average command and control — a nice arm to add to your system but a reliever at best and not a high-probability guy either. Unless Robinson was somehow burning a hole in their pockets, this doesn’t make a ton of sense to me, as they didn’t get any prospect as good as he is in the exchange.
******
Not that anyone cares about this anymore, but the canceled post had info on Alex Castellanos, so
I might as well include it here. Los Angeles did send several million to the Cardinals along with Furcal, though they send up saving $1.4m overall, which was as much the point as it was getting Castellanos, who turns 25 next week.
Castellanos, a 10th-round pick in 2008 out of a small North Carolina college, played second and third base in his first two years with the Cardinals, but is now strictly a right fielder. He was a Texas League All-Star this year with a line of .319/.379/.562, and 19 HR. That sounds nice, though I’ve yet to see a scouting report that says he’s more than a fourth outfielder; he wasn’t even mentioned in Kevin Goldstein’s preseason Top 20 Cardinals prospects list at Baseball Prospectus. Of course, since Furcal is old, incredibly injury-prone, and having a terrible season, anyone who thought he was bringing back a top prospect was fooling themselves.
Since I admittedly hadn’t heard of Castellanos prior to yesterday, let’s let people who know a lot more about him than me fill in the blanks on what to expect.
Jim Callis of Baseball America:
Castellanos was having a career year in Double-A (he ranks eighth in the Texas League in hitting, fifth in homers and fourth in runs scored), but he’ll turn 25 on Thursday and his tools don’t live up to his performance. He has some pop but he has a long swing and chases too many pitches out of the strike zone. His speed and defensive tools are fringy, and the former Belmont Abbey (N.C.) second baseman fits best in right field. Despite his 2011 numbers, he doesn’t have the bat to profile as a big league regular there. He signed for $70,000 as a 10th-round pick in 2008.
The 24-year-old right-handed hitter was the Cardinals’ 10th-round draft pick in 2008. Castellanos set a new Palm Beach record with 35 doubles last season and his seven triples led the Cardinals system. Though he received votes, he did not crack The Cardinal Nation Top 40 Prospect List during the off-season.
In 2011, Castellanos was The Cardinal Nation Player of the Month for April and has twice been named the Texas League Player of the Week. He has a .319 average, 19 home runs and 62 RBI in 93 games. Castellanos has been especially hot recently, batting .419 with ten RBI in his last ten games.
Castellanos, a 10th-round draft pick in 2008 from NCAA D-II Belmont Abbey (N.C.), owned the Texas League’s eighth-best batting average, its fifth-most home runs (19), fifth-most total bases (119). His 62 RBIs are second on the Cardinals behind Matt Adams’ 81.
A right-handed batter, Castellanos, 24, emerged as a potential prospect last season in the high Class A Florida State League, batting .270 but hitting 35 doubles, 13 home runs and owning a .462 slugging percentage in what is widely considered a pitcher’s circuit.
In Springfield, Castellanos still tends to chase too many off-speed pitches he couldn’t handle anyway (off-speed out of the zone). But when on base, he showed good speed and instincts, stealing 10 bases in 11 attempts.
Defensively, he played right field and showed a strong arm, though he tended to get too aggressive with runners on base and would go for the out, rather than hit the cut-off man.
Castellanos said he is being assigned to Chattanooga, Tenn., of the Double-A Southern League.
Future Redbirds (from April 2011)
Looking at the stats, it is pretty clear what type of player Castellanos is so far in his career. He will swing for the fences and is happy to go down swinging while trying. He will not try to work a walk and his OBP will not be much more than his AVG. But when he hits the ball it will go very far and he has the ability to stretch a single into a double and double into a triple which helps his slugging numbers. Once on base, he also has dangerous speed to steal bases at will. Castellanos is an intriguing prospect based on his power and speed numbers, but will need to cut down on the strikeouts and add some walks to really push his prospect status to the next level.
So it seems pretty clear that Castellanos is a 4th outfielder prospect, at best, with a small possibility of more if his sudden burst this year has something behind it. There’s value in that, I suppose, since Furcal had almost no value on the market, but this isn’t someone who is suddenly a building block for the future.
I’m More Disappointed In Hiroki Kuroda Than I Thought I’d Be
July 30, 2011 at 5:53 pm | Posted in Hiroki Kuroda | 83 Comments
As you’ve no doubt heard, Hiroki Kuroda has informed the Dodgers he will not be waiving his no-trade clause, and thus will be staying with the club for the rest of the season. I have to say, I’m pretty disappointed in that. Don’t get me wrong; I’m a big fan of Kuroda’s. Choosing to exercise his option to stay is well within his rights, and I certainly understand and respect the view of those like Jon Weisman (and, I must say, a surprising amount of Dodger fans, at least among those who post on message boards) who see Kuroda’s decision to stay amongst the turmoil as a refreshing change of pace. I get all of that, and from a human interest point of view, it’s commendable.
Unfortunately, I look at it from more of a “wanting my team to win” point of view, and from that standpoint, it’s hard not to think that Kuroda has hurt the chances to do that, even if only in a small way. A few weeks ago, I noted that I would be more than okay with keeping Kuroda to soak up some innings over the last few months if the deal was just going to be a salary dump, with little in the way of talent coming back. Yet as dominoes have begun to fall over the last few days, we’ve seen that this particular trade season is shaping up as a clear seller’s market. Look at what Toronto was able to do in exchange for some relievers and eating a bad contract. Look how much the Orioles got for 36-year-old Koji Uehara, or the Mets for two months of Carlos Beltran, or the reported return for Ubaldo Jimenez if that goes through. With Detroit, St. Louis, and Cleveland (maybe) all having picked up starters, that left the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rangers to fight over Kuroda, the clear top remaining starter. That’s an enviable position to be in.
I know rumors are just that, but when the Dodgers reportedly asked the Yankees for starter Ivan Nova and one of their three quality catching prospects, several baseball writers I respect greatly tweeted that they didn’t think that was enough of a return, even if the Yankees balked at it. The Dodgers were reportedly even scouting Tiger 3B prospect Nick Castellanos, who they almost certainly weren’t going to get, but at least they were shooting high. As the market took shape, my initial misgivings that the prospects may not be worth the effort turned into a feeling that the Dodgers could really get someone who would make a difference for the future. Not a superstar, of course, but at least a solid starter and perhaps a lottery ticket at one of the positions where the Dodgers have little depth.
Instead, we have 8-10 more starts of Kuroda to look forward to, and that might be it if he decides to go back to Japan after the season. I know some will be happy with that, saying that it proves he’s “true blue” or makes the club better for the last two months, but I don’t really see what that accomplishes. At the end of the season, his current 6-13 record will be something like 8-17, and the team will still be several games under .500 and double-digit games out of a playoff spot. Having Kuroda around, or not, was not going to change the fortunes of the 2011 club. Trading him might have helped future versions of the club, teams he’ll have been long retired from, and while I’m glad he enjoys being a Dodger enough to invoke his no-trade clause, he could have also gone on a two-month road trip somewhere and re-signed in Los Angeles the day after the season ended, if he chose. His gain, short-term, is probably our loss, long-term, and it’ll be a bit hard for me to watch his next start without that thought in the back of my mind.
Hiroki Kuroda Will Agree to a Trade, Unless He Won’t
July 30, 2011 at 2:04 pm | Posted in Hiroki Kuroda | 7 CommentsI usually don’t make posts for quick, small items – the dawn of Twitter killed that, because I used to – but these back-to-back tweets by SI‘s Jon Heyman and the Boston Globe‘s Gordon Edes are too good to pass up.
Heyman, 1:49pm PT:
friend of kuroda says hed be surprised i hiroki consented to a trade out of LA. #tradedeadline
Edes, 1:50pm PT:
Kuroda has indicated to Dodgers that he is open to deals w/Texas, Bos, and NYY. Texas has been pushing hard#trades
The lesson, as always? Don’t believe everything you hear, especially when it’s 23 hours before the trading deadline, and especially especially if it was delivered in 140 characters or less.
Report: Dodgers Agree to Trade Rafael Furcal to Cardinals
July 30, 2011 at 11:50 am | Posted in Rafael Furcal | 17 Comments
First reported by Craig Calcaterra at NBC Sports, and since picked up by several other outlets:
A source tells our own Craig Calcaterra that the Cardinals and Dodgers have agreed to the particulars in a Furcal deal and that Furcal is leaning toward waiving his no-trade protection to go to St. Louis.
This does not mean a deal is done, because as a player with 10/5 rights, Furcal could refuse the trade (or, possibly, Calcaterra’s source could be wrong, though it’s not like this is a story that’s coming out of the blue). But there’s just about no chance he does that; why, in his walk year (since there’s no way that option gets picked up), would he want to play the next few weeks on a losing team before likely getting shoved aside for Dee Gordon in September? He’ll go. Bet on it, and it’s the right move for both sides.
I’ll update this post when we hear who is coming back from St. Louis, but let’s set expectations here. Furcal’s value is far, far less than Hiroki Kuroda‘s, so don’t start dreaming about any Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez, or Zack Cox types. Much depends on who picks up the majority of the remaining $4m or so on Furcal’s contract, of course.
More to come.
Matt Kemp’s Homer Tops Ted Lilly’s Homers
July 29, 2011 at 10:45 pm | Posted in Hiroki Kuroda, Matt Kemp, Rafael Furcal | 18 Comments
So much for that mini-slump Matt Kemp was supposedly stuck in during the early-to-mid part of July, right? Kemp entered tonight having reached base ten times over his previous five games, including three doubles, and then outdid himself in the 9-5 win over Arizona by driving in the first five runs on a single and a three-run homer – in addition to a nice diving catch in the top of the 7th. How ridiculous is Kemp right now? After the catch, Sports Illustrated‘s Jon Heyman actually tweeted that as far as he’s concerned, the best player in baseball right now is either Kemp or Toronto’s Jose Bautista, who’s sporting a line of something like .682/.951/2.933. High praise indeed, even if it’s probably not accurate, almost enough to not make you want to cry when reading Ramona Shelburne’s account of how Ned Colletti’s hands are tied by the McCourt mess in signing Kemp to the long-term deal he so clearly deserves. (Speaking of which, the latest report is that those two idiots could spend nearly $35m in legal fees alone settling their divorce case. That’s a completely appropriate use for that kind of cash, isn’t it?)
While Kemp will get the accolades, and rightfully so, it’s important to note that even he can’t drive in five runs on two hits without a little bit of help, and for once, he wasn’t the only Dodger contributing. Six other Dodgers had hits with Juan Rivera and Aaron Miles each chipping in two (Rivera’s were both doubles), and Andre Ethier with three plus a hit-by-pitch.
Of course, all that offense was needed since Ted Lilly gave up two more homers (including one to Willie Bloomquist, which really should be a felony, right?), plus another from Matt Guerrier. Mike MacDougal, terrifyingly the new setup man with Kenley Jansen on the disabled list with an irregular heartbeat, managed to get through the 8th without trouble (as I joked on Twitter, one benefit of his new status is that he won’t have to come in with men on base), and Javy Guerra finished up in the 9th.
The win puts them to 12-11 in July with one game yet to go; they haven’t had a winning month so far in 2011, unless you count March’s 1-0. They’ve also won 11 of 17, which is quite an encouraging streak, and a credit to Don Mattingly, I believe. They’re also still 12.5 games back in the NL West and 13 back in the wild card, so let’s not get too carried away. Still, this team could have easily rolled over and died, and instead they’re showing us some life. We can take some solace in that, at least.
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Roster notes: Josh Lindblom was recalled to take Jansen’s spot on the roster. Jansen is actually feeling well enough that he threw a bullpen session today, but due to the blood thinners he’s on, he’s not allowed to be in a position where he could get hit in the head. Casey Blake went 3-4 with a double in a rehab game tonight, and could take the spot of Juan Uribe, who may go on the DL thanks to a strained groin. Finally, because several of you asked last week, the reason Carlos Monasterios isn’t pitching in the minors is because he hurt his elbow so badly that he underwent Tommy John surgery this week. Don’t expect to see him in the bigs until 2013 at the earliest.
And when, oh when, will we be free of Eugenio Velez?
******
Fun as it was to see the offense show some life, let’s not pretend that tonight’s game is in any way more important or interesting than the rapidly-developing trade market, and all of the focus is shining squarely on Hiroki Kuroda, Jamey Carroll, and Rafael Furcal.
The other day, I said that I thought it was 70/30 that Kuroda would stay in Los Angeles, but I’m beginning to soften on that stance. As Ken Gurnick notes at dodgers.com, Kuroda could easily end the speculation by simply saying he’s not going to accept any trades. He hasn’t done that, which sounds like there is at least the possibility that he’ll take a deal that he likes. That plus the fact that Kuroda’s standing as the best starting pitcher available (I’m assuming Ubaldo Jimenez isn’t going anywhere) was enhanced by his nice start the other night allows for the chance that the Dodgers could get a decent prospect in return. It certainly doesn’t hurt that the Yankees saw A.J. Burnett lose to Baltimore (despite 10 strikeouts) tonight and have a doubleheader to deal with tomorrow, either.
As for the infielders, a few days ago I thought it was all but certain that Carroll was gone, particularly when Milwaukee lost Rickie Weeks, but now I think that’s less likely. The Dodgers reportedly would consider trading either Carroll or Furcal, but not both. You can make the argument that that’s foolish – hint: it is – yet if it’s going to be one or the other, you’d have to think it’s Furcal. He’s the one who isn’t going to have a place to play when Dee Gordon returns in September. He’s the one who still has $4m on his contract, and he’s the one who is now drawing interest from several teams, including the Diamondbacks and the Cardinals. (And let’s not miss this opportunity to laugh at the Cardinals for needing to replace the woeful Ryan Theriot, because, ha.) For all the talk of how awful Furcal’s season has been, he does have eight hits in his last six games, including a double tonight, and when he’s healthy he’s certainly a contributor. So I do think he goes, and Carroll stays.
Of course, if it were up to me, they’d both go; Carroll certainly has value in this market. What’s the harm of playing Gordon every day at shortstop, and Miles splitting time at second and third with Blake and Ivan DeJesus until Uribe is healthy? That’ll get you through the season, and while I like Carroll, if you can get something for a guy who’s about to be 38, you do it.
Finally, the end of Gurnick’s trade report is worth reprinting, if only because he presented it with no additional comment:
There also have been inquiries about catchers Rod Barajas and Dioner Navarro.
I can think of a few inquiries there. None of them have anything to do with trades, though.
Hiroki Kuroda, L (6-13)
July 28, 2011 at 6:40 am | Posted in Hiroki Kuroda | 35 Comments
If Wednesday night’s loss to Colorado was indeed the final start as a Dodger for Hiroki Kuroda, it came in the most appropriate fashion possible: six innings of one-run ball, twice as many strikeouts (six) as walks (three)… and yet another loss, since the inept Dodger offense couldn’t be bothered to put a run on the board until Rod Barajas‘ solo homer with one out in the ninth. (On a side note, another strike for pitcher W/L records; Kuroda, Blake Hawksworth, and Mike MacDougal all allowed the same damage of one earned run. Kuroda allowed that much over six innings, while Hawksworth did it in one and MacDougal in one and a third. Yet Kuroda is the one with the blemish on his record. Uh, okay.)
That inspired Jon Weisman to pass along this astonishing note:
Since May 22, Kuroda is 1-10 with a 3.38 ERA.
Unbelievable. Let’s take a look at that stretch of games…
| Gm | Date | Opp | Rslt | Inngs | Dec | IP | H | ER | BB | SO | HR | 2B | 3B |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | May 22 | CHW | L,3-8 | GS-6 | L(5-4) | 5.2 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | May 28 | FLA | L,1-6 | GS-6 | L(5-5) | 5.1 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 | Jun 3 | CIN | L,1-2 | GS-6 | L(5-6) | 6.0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Jun 8 | PHI | L,0-2 | GS-6 | L(5-7) | 5.1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Jun 13 | CIN | L,4-6 | GS-7 | L(5-8) | 6.1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Jun 19 | HOU | W,1-0 | GS-7 | 7.0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 16 | Jun 25 | LAA | L,1-6 | GS-5 | L(5-9) | 5.0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Jul 1 | LAA | W,5-0 | GS-7 | W(6-9) | 7.0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | Jul 6 | NYM | L,3-5 | GS-6 | L(6-10) | 6.0 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 19 | Jul 16 | ARI | L,2-3 | GS-6 | L(6-11) | 6.0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 | Jul 22 | WSN | L,2-7 | GS-7 | L(6-12) | 6.1 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 | Jul 27 | COL | L,1-3 | GS-6 | L(6-13) | 6.0 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 133.0 | 128 | 46 | 36 | 103 | 14 |
Five times he allowed fewer than two earned runs, and still came away with the loss. In fact, the only two times in that entire stretch where he didn’t come down with an L were the two games in which he was essentially perfect – seven scoreless innings on June 19 against Houston (which didn’t even get him a win), and seven more scoreless innings on July 1 against the Angels.
And yet, from all we’ve heard, Kuroda has little interest in being freed from this trap, despite rumors that interest from the Red Sox and Yankees (in addition to the Rangers, Brewers, Indians, and Tigers) is growing. Kuroda’s comments to MLB.com show little inclination of a man preparing to leave town:
“My honest feeling is that I can’t fathom wearing another uniform than the Dodgers uniform right now,” Kuroda said through a translator. “I never thought about it, and it’s really hard to think.”
That may be, but Kuroda holds all the power in a potential deal, meaning he could have come out weeks ago and said he flat-out didn’t want to be traded.
“I haven’t really decided on anything, so I can’t really give you an answer,” Kuroda said. “Today I was wearing a Dodgers uniform, and I was playing here, to win, for this team. I have a few days before the Trade Deadline, so I’m going to think about it, I’m going to talk to my agent about it, and we’ll go on from there.”
Of course, Kuroda is a notoriously private person in the public eye, so it’s not in his personality to say anything that would take his focus away from the next start or even the next pitch. As the deadline nears, it’s becoming clear that the best thing for the Dodgers is to see him elsewhere. Whenever the Yankees and Red Sox are in on the same player, that can only mean good things for the seller, particularly since the Yankee rotation behind CC Sabathia continues to be a mess as Phil Hughes struggles to regain his form, and the injury concerns for Boston’s Clay Buchholz are growing.
Besides the big two, Milwaukee’s interest in working with the Dodgers may have only grown since second baseman Rickie Weeks injured his ankle last night. That, plus the death knells of Craig Counsell‘s career (0 for his last 43 [!!!]), the struggles of Casey McGehee, and Yuniesky Betancourt being Yuniesky Betancourt means that the Brewers ought to be in hard on Jamey Carroll, or even Rafael Furcal – or both. And Detroit and Cleveland are both rumored to still be extremely interested in adding Kuroda.
Clearly, it’s best for the Dodgers that Kuroda move on; depending on who they get back, it would help for the future, and in the short term, it’s not like Dana Eveland or John Ely couldn’t lose games as regularly as Kuroda has been. Professionally, it’s certainly best for Kuroda, who would go to a team that isn’t a total embarrassment and offer him a chance to play in October. It’s the personal issue that is the sticking block, though one would think that going on a two-month road trip before being free to choose whether to return to Los Angeles or even Japan wouldn’t be so much as to scuttle the entire idea.
With 3 days left before the deadline, I’m putting the odds at 70/30 that Kuroda stays in Los Angeles. Prove me wrong, Hiroki (and Ned). Prove me wrong.
Trading Season Heats Up, But Maybe Not For the Dodgers
July 27, 2011 at 12:36 pm | Posted in Andre Ethier, Hiroki Kuroda | 19 Comments
A few days ago, I wondered if there was any chance of prying outfielder Colby Rasmus away from St. Louis, saying that I would gladly trade Hiroki Kuroda, a bullpen arm or two, and a mid-level prospect for him. Today, Toronto did just that, acquiring the outfielder and three other pitchers in a complicated three-team deal that ultimately ended up with St. Louis receiving Edwin Jackson, Marc Rzepczynski, Octavio Dotel, Corey Patterson, and some players to be named. To get Jackson from the White Sox, Toronto first had to give up reliever Jason Frasor and decent prospect Zach Stewart, in addition to eating the $7.2m left owed to the disappointing Mark Teahen.
All of which got me thinking, could the Dodgers have done that? Forget the deal with the White Sox, because they wouldn’t have needed to first acquire Jackson, as Kuroda is the obvious fit there and is possibly a superior pitcher to Jackson anyway. (They’re both free agents at the end of the year, as well.) What’s the equivalent to Rzepczynski, Dotel, and Patterson? Javy Guerra, Mike MacDougal, and Tony Gwynn? Matt Guerrier or Scott Elbert instead, or in addition? I think we’d all have done that, right? But it’s not that simple. Perhaps the Cards did prefer Jackson to Kuroda. Perhaps Kuroda would have refused to waive his no-trade clause, as is sounding more and more likely. And that’s not even taking into account that Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos is a secret ninja who is awesome at his job, while Ned Colletti is Ned Colletti.
So no, we probably shouldn’t be that disappointed that Rasmus is headed north of the border, because he almost certainly was never in play for the Dodgers anyway. In fact, the closer we get to the deadline, the less likely I think it is that the Dodgers will make any kind of move, selling or buying. The team has won four in a row and 10 of 15, and while no one in their right mind can think that puts them in any sort of situation to contend (hooray, just 0.5 games back of Colorado for third place!), we’ve mostly known Colletti as the type to refuse to sell unless it is literally his only option. (Maybe that’s good, since Colletti’s mentor Brian Sabean is reportedly on the verge of selling his top pitching prospect, Zach Wheeler, to get two months of Carlos Beltran.)
It is something of an ill-timed winning streak, at least for those of us hoping to see some veterans moved, but as we’ve known for a while, this is also a club that doesn’t have a ton of valuable trading chips. With Kuroda sounding unlikely to agree to a trade anywhere, perhaps what we’ll see is the team standing pat, other than maybe some smaller deals for guys like Jamey Carroll or Rod Barajas that probably won’t bring back much. It may not be exciting, but as I suggested a few weeks ago, that might always have been the best option.
******
Speaking of players who aren’t going anywhere (even if they should be), I have to admit I enjoyed the brief – extremely brief – Twitter freakout when Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports teased a link to an article about the chances of Andre Ethier being moved. Turns out, it was much ado about nothing:
A trade of Andre Ethier by the Dodgers – while unlikely – isn’t completely out of the question.
Sources close to the Dodgers’ thinking said the odds of an Ethier trade are “very slim” and that general manager Ned Colletti “would need to be blown away” by an offer to move his right fielder.
The Red Sox have been looking for an outfield bat, and Ethier is a close friend of Boston second baseman Dustin Pedroia, but sources say the teams haven’t had any serious discussions about an Ethier deal.
In general, though, Ethier fits the description of players who are typically discussed in July trades: His team is out of contention, and he will become a free agent after next season.
Ethier, a fan favorite in L.A., has an .815 OPS this year and made his second career All-Star appearance.
Wow! Thanks for the breaking news, guys.
*****
Two more additions to the McCourt sin list: we’re now at 55.
Kershaw, Kemp & Kenley Lead the Way
July 26, 2011 at 10:28 pm | Posted in Clayton Kershaw, Jamey Carroll, Kenley Jansen | 23 Comments
Clayton Kershaw went 6.2 solid innings while setting a career high in pitches, and the Dodger offense finally touched Jhoulys Chacin thanks in part to some shoddy Colorado defense, but that’s not what I’m interested in tonight.
A few days ago, I tweeted that I wasn’t quite sure why Kenley Jansen was setting up for Javy Guerra, rather than vice-versa. It was sort of an off-hand remark more than anything serious, because to be honest it doesn’t really matter at this point, and Jon Weisman accurately captured the feeling that Guerra’s success has been welcome, but not totally convincing.
It was less about Guerra than Jansen, of course, because the level of domination we’ve seen from Jansen since his return from the disabled list in June has been a severely under-reported positive note of the Dodger season; if I’d had a few extra minutes today, I’d planned to write about him before the game. I wish I’d had, because with Guerra sidelined after having pitched three days in a row, Jansen was the fill-in closer tonight; seven pitches and two strikeouts later, his legend is starting to grow.
Quickly, the facts: since returning from injury, Jansen has pitched 16 scoreless innings spanning 14 games. In that time, he’s whiffed 26 against 7 walks and 3 singles. Think about that; he’s striking out nearly half the batters he’s seeing, he’s cutting down on the walks, and he’s been all but unhittable. Remember how great we thought his K/9 rate was last season? Yeah, it’s better this year; if he keeps it up, he’ll have one of the five or six best seasons in history by that metric.
Yet he seemingly hasn’t earned the respect he deserves, and I think I know why. In his first appearance of the season, he gave up four earned runs in a game the Dodgers would lose to San Francisco 10-0. Later in April, he gave up five earned runs to Atlanta, as the Dodgers lost 10-1. Despite ripping off ten consecutive scoreless innings after that, his ERA was still north of 5 through the end of May, when he was hit hard again just before being shelved with shoulder inflammation. Even now, 16 scoreless innings later, his ERA is still just 3.65, which is hardly eye-catching. The point, as you’ve surely gleaned by now, is not just that ERA for relievers is wildly unreliable due to the small sample sizes, but that people tend to gravitate to the shiny numbers they see on their TV screen – and that first impressions are far too important. If Jansen had the exact same season numbers he does now, but had been great early and hit hard more recently, I guarantee you the perception of him would be a little different.
For now, the situation is fine. Often, we know that it’s better to have your best relievers available for tougher situations before the 9th. If Guerra continues to get the job done, even when it’s not pretty, there’s really no reason to rock the boat this season to make a switch. It’s not Guerra who’s the closer of the future, though. It’s Jansen.
******
So here’s a thing, and while this is going to come off as being negative towards Jamey Carroll, it’s not intended to be. I like Jamey Carroll; I’ll be sad when he’s gone, whether that’s in three days or three months, and I need not remind you that Carroll’s job is not to drive in runs and that RBI are generally incredibly meaningless.
That said, when I stumble upon a statistical oddity like this, how can I not share it? Carroll is on pace to be one of the most ineffective hitters at driving in runs, well, ever.
| Rk | Player | RBI | PA | Year | Age | Tm | H | 2B | 3B | HR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dick Howser | 6 | 377 | 1965 | 29 | CLE | 72 | 8 | 2 | 1 | .235 | .354 | .283 | .638 |
| 2 | Jamey Carroll | 8 | 337 | 2011 | 37 | LAD | 86 | 12 | 4 | 0 | .288 | .360 | .355 | .715 |
| 3 | Wayne Tolleson | 9 | 378 | 1984 | 28 | TEX | 72 | 9 | 2 | 0 | .213 | .276 | .251 | .528 |
| 4 | Elliott Maddox | 10 | 349 | 1972 | 24 | TEX | 74 | 7 | 2 | 0 | .252 | .361 | .289 | .650 |
| 5 | Don Mason | 11 | 377 | 1971 | 26 | SDP | 73 | 12 | 1 | 2 | .212 | .270 | .270 | .540 |
| 6 | Danny Murtaugh | 11 | 375 | 1941 | 23 | PHI | 76 | 8 | 1 | 0 | .219 | .275 | .248 | .523 |
| 7 | Charlie Jamieson | 11 | 473 | 1918 | 25 | PHA | 84 | 11 | 2 | 0 | .202 | .297 | .238 | .535 |
| 8 | Roy Thomas | 11 | 339 | 1909 | 35 | BSN | 74 | 9 | 1 | 0 | .263 | .369 | .302 | .671 |
| 9 | Al Burch | 11 | 381 | 1906 | 22 | STL | 89 | 5 | 1 | 0 | .266 | .339 | .287 | .625 |
| 10 | John Shelby | 12 | 371 | 1989 | 31 | LAD | 63 | 11 | 1 | 1 | .183 | .237 | .229 | .466 |
That’s a list of the fewest RBI by players with at least 337 PA (which is what Carroll had entering tonight’s game) since 1901, which is essentially the beginning of time in baseball terms. What’s most interesting here is the “OPS” category on the far right, because – as would be expected – we’re looking at some dreadful years, none more so than our own John Shelby‘s nearly unfathomable 1989. But Carroll doesn’t fall into that category; after tonight’s 2-3, his line now stands at a .291/.363/.358, which is more than acceptable.
For Carroll, his lack of runs driven in looks to be something of a perfect storm. Part of it is batting position, as he’s often hit leadoff (meaning there’s no one on to start the game, or behind the pitcher otherwise) or 8th (behind the generally execrable Juan Uribe, Dioner Navarro, or Rod Barajas). He simply doesn’t get a ton of opportunities with men in scoring position. Of course, he’s not doing much with the chances he does get: just .160/.323/.160 in 63 plate appearances with RISP this year.
Anyway, most of us expect Carroll to be elsewhere by the end of the week, so this is neither here nor there, and certainly not a knock on his performance. But in a season that was lost long ago, might as well root for this record right up alongside the chase for “most left fielders”, right?
Hiroki Kuroda’s Trade Possibilities
July 25, 2011 at 9:47 am | Posted in Colby Rasmus, Hiroki Kuroda | 72 Comments
I’m back from a fun weekend away (no thanks to Delta and their six-hour delays, of course), and fortunately for us all, none of the trade possibilities we jokingly brought up last week came to fruition. Yet with each passing day, it seems more and more likely that Hiroki Kuroda will be on the move this week, possibly making his Wednesday start against the Rockies his final outing as a Dodger.
Of course, that’s all dependent on Kuroda waiving his no-trade clause, which is far from certain, though rumors that he would not go to the East Coast appear to have been overblown. He reportedly refused Ned Colletti’s request to provide a list of teams he’d be willing to go to, instead preferring to choose on a case-by-case basis, and ESPNLA’s Tony Jackson reports that even if Kuroda is willing to go somewhere, the Dodgers might not really want to trade him. I agreed with that stance about ten days ago, when I said that if trading Kuroda would only bring back some financial savings that could end up in the pockets of some bankruptcy lawyer or far-flung McCourt subsidiary, then it isn’t worth it – you might as well keep him to protect rotation depth (particularly Rubby De La Rosa) and improve your chances of re-signing Kuroda for 2012.
Still, the market for starting pitching is weak, particularly when you consider that the top names we’ve heard – Ubaldo Jimenez, James Shields, and Wandy Rodriguez – are very unlikely to be moved. It’s not that hard to consider Kuroda as the top available starting pitcher, and with more and more teams reportedly showing interest in the 36-year-old righty, the odds of getting something decent in return for him are improving. Let’s be careful to set expectations: I’m not talking about a top prospect superstud type. Kuroda’s a quality arm, but he’s not this year’s C.C. Sabathia or Cliff Lee. Two months of Kuroda probably won’t get you a franchise cornerstone, yet it should be enough to land you a quality prospect or two, and there’s value in that. (Particularly if the idea that Kuroda would go somewhere else and then come back to Los Angeles next year anyway has any merit to it, though if that means his acquiring team offered him arbitration that required the Dodgers to give up a draft pick to get him, then pass.)
So far, the teams that have popped up most often in rumors are the Tigers, Indians, Red Sox, Rangers and Yankees, with Ken Rosenthal specifically commenting on the Yanks earlier today. Let’s spitball some potential players of interest from each of those systems, shall we? Keeping in mind, of course, that I’m familiar with the top 5-10 prospects from most teams; often, these deals will also include lower-level guys that many of us haven’t heard of. As we all know, the Dodgers have absolutely zero depth at third base or behind the plate, so teams with players there have to be priority, though I don’t think it makes sense to turn down a solid pitching or outfield prospect if that’s the best deal.
Let’s also pretend for the moment that this won’t be a straight salary dump, in which case you can forget about just about anyone noted here.
Tigers. No, don’t even think about Jacob Turner, and also count out third baseman Nick Castellanos, who received a $3.45m bonus as a first round pick in 2010. Tigers blog Bless You Boys suggests that Detroit might be willing to part with 23-year-old power lefty Andy Oliver, who has struggled in brief MLB stints (23/21 K/BB, 25 ER in 31.2 IP) but entered the year as Baseball Prospectus‘ #3 prospect. Oliver looks to have solid strikeout stuff with some control issues; I can’t say he really excites me all that much, though for what Kuroda’s value really is, that’s probably a pretty good return.
Yankees. I don’t really have to tell you that Jesus Montero isn’t in play, right? That’s the case for pitchers Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances, too. If there’s one thing the Yankees have in spades (besides, you know, ungodly sums of cash), it’s catching prospects, as Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine are both coming up behind Montero. Sanchez is almost certainly too much for Kuroda, though I would consider getting Romine to be a huge win. I follow a ton of smart Yankee writers and fans on Twitter; many of them would not be happy with giving up Romine and instead suggested Huntington Beach native Kyle Higashioka behind the plate and 2B/3B Corban Joseph. Neither made BP’s Top 20 list, though that’s no surprise; like all of us, Yankee fans are overrating their own players just a bit. There’s also 23-year-old 3B/OF prospect Brandon Laird, who has 75 homers in parts of five MiLB seasons and just made his major league debut.
Red Sox. I’ve always liked catcher Ryan Lavarnway, hitting .372/.449/.752 in 36 AAA games, though his recent hot streak after being promoted probably means Kuroda alone won’t get him. There’s also the concern that Lavarnaway, a native of Burbank, doesn’t have the defensive chops to stay behind the plate, though it’s not like the Dodgers don’t have a big hole at 1B too. There’s also perhaps Yamaico Navarro, who has shown decent on-base skills in the minors while playing all over the infield. He’s done little in brief big-league stints, though he’s also quite blocked in Boston by Dustin Pedroia, Jed Lowrie, Kevin Youkilis, and Jose Iglesias (and for the moment, Marco Scutaro). Speaking of being blocked the Sox also have 22-year-old 3B Will Middlebrooks, Boston’s #11 prospect entering the season, who is having a big year in AA. I’d be thrilled to get either Lavarnway or Middlebrooks in a Kuroda deal.
Indians. I would be surprised if the Tribe took their surprising success this season seriously enough to trade for Kuroda, while their top two prospects – 2B Jason Kipnis and 3B Lonnie Chisenhall – would both be fantastic fits, they’ve each been promoted to Cleveland recently and aren’t being moved for Kuroda. (No, not even if you toss in Jamey Carroll, who Cleveland has reportedly been interested in re-acquiring.) The Indians aren’t in much better shape behind the plate than the Dodgers are – their top catcher, Alex Lavisky, has just a .251 OBP in A-ball this year – and I’m going to just stop talking about Cleveland right now, because it’s just not going to happen. (I don’t know, Cord Phelps, maybe.)
Rangers. My affinity for taking a lottery ticket on Chris Davis is well-known, though I would hope that isn’t the best the Dodgers can do. The Rangers have a ton of top prospects who we shouldn’t even dream on – Jurickson Profar, Martin Perez, etc – so we’ll have to keep this reasonable. I would live to get 3B Mike Olt, who has a solid glove and has shown good life with the bat, though it might be a bit much to ask Texas to trade a 2010 first rounder. Catcher Jorge Alfaro is probably too far away – he’s only 18 – as is Kellin Deglan, another 2010 first rounder.
Seems to me that the best outcome for the Dodgers is for Boston to step up to the plate. Their system has the best fit for the Dodger needs, they have a good history with accommodating Asian players, and whenever the Sox and Yankees bid for the same player, good things always happen for the seller. The main concern there is Theo Epstein convincing Ned Colletti that taking John Lackey in return is a great idea.
So there’s your most likely destinations… and then there’s Colby Rasmus, who I shouldn’t be wasting time thinking about, yet whom I can’t seem to get out of my mind. Reports that Rasmus and Tony LaRussa cannot coexist have been surfacing for nearly a year now, and it seems that the conflict is coming to a head. Twice a Baseball America top-10 prospect, Rasmus’ .366 wOBA was second only to Carlos Gonzalez among NL CF in 2010, when he was just 23. The numbers this year haven’t quite been to that level as he’s struggled with a stomach injury and clashed with LaRussa, but a player with that talent at that age would be a nice get for any team, with rumors heating up that he may be headed to the White Sox.
It may seem that outfield is the least of the Dodger worries, with Jerry Sands and Trayvon Robinson on their way up to join with Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. Yet as we saw with Sands, there’s no guarantee that any prospect will immediately come up and contribute, and while Rasmus is under team control through 2014, Kemp and Ethier are both free agents after 2012. At the very least, he’d improve the offense while filling the left field black hole (no matter who ends up there, likely Ethier), but he’d also allow you to explore trading Ethier and/or protect you if one or both left as free agents. Sands could keep his first base glove handy, as well.
It’s almost certain not to happen, of course, but indulge me for a moment. The White Sox have reportedly made starting pitcher Edwin Jackson (a free agent after the season) or lefty reliever Matt Thornton available, along with prospects. Couldn’t the Dodgers beat that? Kuroda would be a given, of course. In the bullpen, perhaps the Cards would take a shot on Hong-Chih Kuo – when he’s right, no one is better – but hell, other than preferring to hang on to Kenley Jansen, give the Cards their pick. You want Kuo, Mike MacDougal, and Javy Guerra? Sure, why the hell not. Then for a prospect, perhaps one of the highly-touted pitchers who clearly have talent but have struggled to pull it together, like Chris Withrow or Ethan Martin. Kuroda, a reliever or two, and a prospect for Rasmus? You’re damned right I’d do that.
Oh, and finally, this: Rosenthal reports that the Pirates are nearing a crisis in the outfield now that Alex Presley is joining Jose Tabata on the injured list, and KABC’s Joe Block has a suggestion: Tony Gwynn. Gwynn has played well of late for the Dodgers, though his time as a starter may be growing short since Don Mattingly confirmed we’d be seeing Trayvon Robinson at some point this season (plus we expect Sands to return, too.) Gwynn’s trade value can’t be much, but turning a player who came in with zero value and has little future into anything of use would be outstanding.
These Are the Trades the Dodgers Will Make This Weekend
July 22, 2011 at 4:59 am | Posted in trades | 52 CommentsOnce again, I’m taking off for the weekend – this time to New Orleans – and with my history of having things happen when I’m gone in addition to the proximity to the trading deadline, you can be sure that something is going down in the next few days. It always happens. I just know it will. So keep an eye out for these moves on the transaction wire…
Dee Gordon to the Reds for Miguel Cairo.
What? Everyone keeps saying how much the Reds need a shortstop and that the Dodgers have one to spare, right? On the other hand, the Reds aren’t the only NL Central team needing some infield help…
Dee Gordon to the Brewers for Mark Kotsay.
Yeah, that feels about right.
(Actually, if it included Mark Attanasio, I absolutely would do that deal.)
Alfredo Silverio and Nathan Eovaldi to the Blue Jays for Octavio Dotel.
I mean, trading decent outfield and pitching prospects for Dotel worked out last year, didn’t it? I don’t know about you, but being able to get 27-year-old low minors outfielder Anthony Jackson in the system was completely worth it.
Trayvon Robinson to the Nationals for Jason Marquis.
Because some blogger had the brilliant idea of not overworking Rubby De La Rosa.
Jonathan Broxton to the Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, Brewers, or Cardinals for anything of any value whatsoever.
Wait, even for a joke article, that idea sounds ridiculous. Who would really suggest that there’s any trade market for Broxton, on the shelf for months with an elbow injury without any set return date?
Oh, that’s right: the geniuses at Bleacher Report. Of course.
Hiroki Kuroda to the Red Sox for Ryan Lavarnway.
Wait, that’s a trade I do want to see happen. How did that sneak in there?
Aaron Miles to the Cardinals for Trever Miller.
Because someone in the comments of a recent post, and I forget who so my apologies, wanted to see what would happen if St. Louis tried to play Miles, Nick Punto, and Ryan Theriot in the infield all at the same time.
Mike MacDougal signs a three-year, $16m extension.
Not a trade, exactly, but just as terrifying.
Vin Scully to FOX for another loan to cover payroll.
Gasp in horror if you like, but would you really put anything past Frank McCourt at this point?
Jamey Carroll to the Pirates for James McDonald.
That sounds okay, what’s the catch?
James McDonald to the Tigers for Brandon Inge.
Oh, for the love of…
How Many McCourt Sins?
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