Sell, Buy, or Other? Two Weeks Until the Deadline
July 15, 2011 at 7:47 am | Posted in A.J. Ellis, Dioner Navarro, Frank McCourt, Hiroki Kuroda, Ian Snell, Rod Barajas | 53 Comments
As we head into the second half of the season, the Dodgers stand at 41-51, 11.5 games behind San Francisco in the NL West and 13 games behind Atlanta for the wild card. Their run differential of -33 is the sixth-worst in baseball, with the pitching slightly above average (13th in runs allowed) and the offense near the bottom (26th in runs scored). With the on-field product underwhelming and the off-field battle raging, the chances of them even getting back to .500, much less back into the race, appear slim, and that could potentially set us up for a dreary death march for the rest of the season.
All that being said, there have been some signs of life lately. Entering the All-Star break, the Dodgers had completed their first sweep of the season and are currently riding a season-best four-game winning streak. The starting pitching has generally been good, the patchwork bullpen has largely held together, and the offense… well, Matt Kemp is pretty awesome.
Still, the date to keep in mind here isn’t September 28, the end of the season. It’s July 31, 16 days from today. Depending on what happens in the next two-plus weeks, the Dodgers could go one of three ways. (Sidenote: I’ve seen people reporting what Ned Colletti says in the papers and on the radio about his plans, and I keep having to remind people that it’s irrelevant. Of course he’s going to say they’re still in it. What good does it do him to to say, “nah, we’re F’d”? Worry more about his actions than his comments, for now.)
They become buyers.
AKA, “the absolutely terrifying option.” Let’s say the recent hot streak holds. Maybe Rod Barajas returns (more on him below) to have one of his patented “I’ll be awesome for eight days before being horrible for eight weeks” tears. Maybe newcomer Juan Rivera is so happy to be back in Southern California (and, for that matter, America) that he destroys baseballs with glee. With five of the next six series against NL West opponents, now is the time to make up some ground, and even gaining 2-3 games in that time could convince Colletti that the team is finally getting healthy and coming around. That’s just on-the-field motivation; it’s not hard to think that Colletti and Frank McCourt see the very uncertain future that they may not be around for and want to go “all-in”, no matter what.
Of course, this scares the hell out of us, and rightfully so. With 92 games in the books and 70 left, the Dodgers would need to go 49-21 to win 90 games this year. That’s a .700 winning percentage, which no team in baseball is even close to (the Phillies are nearest at .626), and even then 90 wins is hardly a playoff guarantee. This team is not making the playoffs in 2011; Baseball Prospectus currently gives them an 0.8% chance of making it, and even that feels generous.
Yet you can see it, can’t you? Trayvon Robinson, gone for a 30+ middle reliever. Allen Webster, shipped out for a veteran bench bat. Reports are that Colletti has about $2m to play with at the deadline, and since that’s not enough for anyone worthwhile, any trades for veterans would mean needing to send quality prospects to cover the cost.
Remember how horrified we were last July by the trades that brought in Scott Podsednik, Octavio Dotel, Ryan Theriot, and Ted Lilly? That team, while still unlikely to make the playoffs, had a much better shot than this one. Buying this year could be even more disastrous than you think.
They become sellers.
This is the outcome that an overwhelming majority of us would like to see, and for good reason: why try to reinforce a team that has almost no shot of winning this year by trading prospects for short-term veterans? Might as well take advantage of the veterans you have now to try and build for the future.
But there are problems with this approach too, namely, “who do you trade?” Obviously, Kemp, Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley are off-limits. You can make a good case to trade Andre Ethier, but that seems unlikely at best. Otherwise, injury (Casey Blake [who would have made a very nice corner bench piece for a contender], Rafael Furcal, Jon Garland) and total lack of value (Tony Gwynn, Dioner Navarro, Mike MacDougal) make this a team full of guys who aren’t worth a lot on the market – unless you’re still holding on to the dim hope that you can really sucker someone into giving up anything for Barajas or Aaron Miles.
Really, that leaves you with just Hiroki Kuroda and Jamey Carroll as trade bait with any sort of value. We’ve heard rumors of teams being interested in each, with the most recent being Detroit sniffing around Kuroda. Yet while either one could be a valuable piece for a contender needing to fill a hole or two, neither should be expected to bring back a large return. Kuroda is 36 with a full no-trade clause and a few million left on his deal. He’ll likely need to be compensated to waive his no-trade, in addition to the remaining salary, and while he’s a solid starter, he’s certainly not this year’s Cliff Lee or CC Sabathia. Carroll is 37, and his OBP and versatility would be an excellent fit for any club, though that’s not enough to trade a top prospect for.
All of which raises the question: if the likelihood of getting talent in return is small, should the Dodgers bother selling just to save money? In years past, that may have made sense; if you can save a few million at the deadline, then in theory that money can be saved for other uses, perhaps the offseason free agent market. But this year? Lord knows where that money would go. I’m more than okay with trading Kuroda to get prospects, yet I would not be happy doing it merely to hang on to dollars that will just end up in the pockets of bankruptcy lawyers.
And that’s all without even touching on whether you can trust Colletti to make the right deals at this time of the year.
They stand pat.
This is the most boring option, and it might also be the correct one. If they accept that buying isn’t the right way to go, and there’s no worthwhile deals worth selling for, doing nothing is an acceptable option. It at least allows you to pay lip service to the idea that you haven’t raised the white flag on the season. That won’t thrill the Plaschke types, but who cares about that. If you’re not getting a decent player in return, there’s value in retaining Kuroda if only to maintain rotation depth and maximize your chance of getting him back on another one-year deal for 2012.
Basically, it comes down to this: you do nothing, this team probably goes something like 72-90. I’d rather that than trading away prospects to go 77-85, and I’d also rather that than saving more money for McCourt while going 67-95.
Man, none of those are good options. Is it football season yet? What? Oh, right.
******
As expected, A.J. Ellis was sent back to AAA to make room for Barajas. That the most valuable of the three Dodger catchers is gone is annoying, but in no way a surprise. It’s not just that Ellis is the only one who can get on base; just look at Chad Billingsley’s game logs and see if you can spot the one thing that changed between his early June slump and his recent excellence. If there’s news here, it’s in how Don Mattingly sees the playing time split between Barajas and Dioner Navarro:
Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said he envisions splitting the catching duties more equally now between Barajas and Dioner Navarro than he did before Barajas got hurt, when Barajas got the bulk of the starts. Barajas is 35 and might benefit from more frequent rest, and Navarro has gone a respectable 4-for-15 at the plate so far in July. He is hitting .183 for the season.
Hooray! More Navarro!
******
More good info from Christopher Jackson of the Albuquerque Baseball Examiner: Ian Snell, who ended his short retirement to sign with the Isotopes back in May, has been placed on the suspended list, though the reasons why are unclear. That further weakens the rotation depth, though he wasn’t coming to the bigs any time soon: his AAA stats (11.05 ERA, 11 HR and 17 BB in 22 IP) are mindblowingly atrocious.
******
There’s not enough information to add it yet, but Bill Shaikin’s latest points to another impending addition to the McCourt sin list:
Frank McCourt (pictured above) wants the Bankruptcy Court to approve a loan in which the Dodgers owner has “a substantial personal financial stake,” attorneys for Major League Baseball wrote in a court filing late Thursday.
The league has offered its own loan to finance the Dodgers through the bankruptcy process. By approving the loan arranged by McCourt, the league argues, the Dodgers would be subject to “almost $15 million more in financing costs” while the Dodgers owner “personally benefitted” from the deal. The amount by which the league alleges McCourt would benefit is redacted from the filing.
“Clearly, Mr. McCourt has not allowed these bankruptcy cases to change the practice of using the [Dodgers] as his personal piggy bank,” the filing read.
The language immediately preceding that sentence alluded to another action by McCourt “at the very same time” he was negotiating the loan in question. The language describing that action also is redacted.
The filing also blacks out the exact amount the league claims McCourt has taken “in direct and indirect payments to him, his family, and affiliated entities from the Dodgers.” That amount is close to $200 million, according to a person familiar with the matter but not authorized to discuss it publicly. The league also said McCourt had failed to disclose or seek approval of several financial transactions, as required by league rules.
Okay, go: what did McCourt do that has been redacted from public knowledge? I’ll say he tried to get a loan from an illegal South American cockfighting ring.
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Accusations of guilt by association are unbecoming. You should avoid slandering cockfighting rings.
Comment by WBB— July 15, 2011 #
I cannot find it in me to wish for the Dodgers to go on a losing streak but if it keeps McCourt/Colletti from burning the minor league furniture in a desperate attempt to prolong their miserable Dodger lives, then LOSE BABY LOSE. I agree that standing pat is the best option unless a delirious buyer wants to overpay; we can always hope.
My guess is the redacted language was around some feature of the McCourt financing that channeled fees/incentives through another door in the McCourt spaghetti-bowl legal structure, at the expense of the Dodgers. I think it is an amendment to #49 on the McCourt list; something is clearly there if it shows up in the BK filing.
Speaking of the list, someone had nominated the marketing blasphemies of the McCourt boys, including the infamous “Lou Campanella” baseball card. I think that belongs on the list – Sons of Steve Garvey do a good job of calling those out at:
http://www.sonsofstevegarvey.com/2007/03/drew-mccourt-continues-to-slight-dodger.html
http://www.sonsofstevegarvey.com/2006/12/drew-mccourt-is-at-it-again.html
http://www.sonsofstevegarvey.com/2007/11/your-sosg-thanksgiving-turkey-drew.html
Comment by Luke— July 15, 2011 #
Ha! I didn’t know about those. Amazing. I might just include them.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— July 15, 2011 #
Mike, you really need to include their opposition to Jayson Werth getting a second opinion on his poorly healed wrist from the Mayo Clinic, and suggesting he see Vladimir Shpunt instead. Just IMO ;-)
Comment by The Dude Abides— July 15, 2011 #
Is there evidence of that? Link to a story?
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— July 15, 2011 #
Perhaps a slight exaggeration about the refusal to pay part, but Werth did go to the Mayo Clinic on his own after the team doctors misdiagnosed his injury, and he did see Shpunt at the McCourts’ suggestion prior to going to the Mayo Clinic. Shaikin:
http://articles.latimes.com/2010/jun/10/sports/la-sp-dodgers-psychic-20100610/2
And the team cut him after the 2006 season, despite his successful surgery at the Mayo Clinic.
Comment by The Dude Abides— July 15, 2011 #
Here’s another marketing gaffe with the Dodger blanket giveaway that reminisced about those wonderful Dodger World Champion years of 1962 and 1966:
http://www.dodgerblues.com/content/newsarchives/news_apr05.html
This goes back a few years and I guess we should have spotted the irony in getting Fleece Blankets from the McCourts…
Comment by Luke— July 15, 2011 #
Woah when did Ian Snell sign with the ‘topes?!?! I totally missed that.
Comment by Eephus Blue— July 15, 2011 #
If what’s left of my memory serves me right, it seems that there’s been a lot more August waver wire deals over the last few years then trade deadline blockbusters. My hope is that some of these guys start to look like veteran bats off the bench with a little more desperate value for a contender. It’s also another 30 days for someone to get hurt and need, say, a veteran Catcher who can give you a good 8 days; or maybe a veteran lead off hitter with something to prove going into free agency. In a nut shell, the August waver deadline is the baseball equivalent to beer goggles.
Comment by Rich— July 15, 2011 #
Good point, I think Furcal and possibly someone like Blake or Barajas would be more likely to go in an August deal than July. Still probably won’t get much though, like you said when someone’s desperate (see Carlos Santana) then you never know…
Comment by Jon#7#22— July 15, 2011 #
I still advocate a trade of Ethier. If two years of a troubled Milton Bradley were worth up to seven years of a young Andre Ethier then the remaining year and a half of Ethier has to be worth more. Plus trading him now makes it more likely that you can invest in Kemp and Kershaw.
Comment by Warren— July 15, 2011 #
Completely disagree. Even if you legitimately believe it is a good baseball move, it will be widely construed as tossing more overboard off of a sinking ship. We don’t need more stink of death floating over the Dodgers. We need to hold onto optimism, hold onto the few solid assets that we have, with the belief that the McCourt situation will run its course in a short enough timeframe that allows us to see a return to the capability and pride of the Dodgers as we have historically known them.
Comment by Luke— July 15, 2011 #
I think you’re both right. Depends on the value in return. Trading him for the sake of dumping salary isn’t wise, but trading him and getting a solid return would be worth it. I’d really love to see what he’s worth in trade. That being said, I’d like to see what Kemp’s worth as well. Trust me, I just threw up in my mouth while typing that, but morbid curiosity wants to know.
Comment by Rich— July 15, 2011 #
I hear you. I doubt there’s ANY deal out there I’d trade Kemp for, but it sure would be fun to hear the prospect names floated for him.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— July 15, 2011 #
Just spitballing, as I love Kemp more than life itself, but what about say, Bryce Harper and Jordan Zimmerman? Maybe get them to throw in Espinosa if the Dodgers send back Loney. No, forget the Loney part, that would kill the deal.
Comment by Travis— July 15, 2011 #
Harper is probably the most untouchable player in baseball right now. Even Kemp wouldn’t be enough to get him back.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— July 15, 2011 #
Exactly everyone is trade able, depends on the return. Also we probably won’t even build a team in time for Ethier to be a big part of it.
Comment by DodgersKings323— July 15, 2011 #
First, it can’t get any worse. Second, are the Dodgers going to contend this year? No. Next year? Not likely. So we are at the end of 2012 with Kemp and Ethier as free agents. I’d put the chances of signing both (regardless of who owns this team) at about 1%. So you want Ethier over Kemp? You want two compensation picks (assuming they still exist) instead of your choice in prospects?
Comment by Warren— July 15, 2011 #
“First, it can’t get any worse.”
Seriously? Why would you say that? Do you walk under ladders, follow black cats around, and dance in graveyards?
Comment by Jeff— July 15, 2011 #
I’d take the right baseball move over the right morale move 100% of the time, especially considering winning is the best morale booster.
Comment by Bip— July 16, 2011 #
i think we should stan pat , i would hate to see any of our prospects go away for a cheap veteran. agree with u there mike and i know ita higly unlikely we make the playoffa i jus try not to think of it lol. and the best thing u said is ” is it football season yet “? been hearing good news bout the lockout gettin lifted soon and i cant wait to see my niners under new coach harbaugh. gonna win the divisiom this year !
Comment by scullyfan24— July 15, 2011 #
That’s what they say every year and then they still have no QB :P
Comment by DodgersKings323— July 15, 2011 #
Snell update, via the good folks at the ABQ Journal: he was suspended for a violation of team rules, which is about what I expected. Me thinks he simply did not come back from the All-Star break. To which I say thank the baseball gods, because he has been AWFUL. Hopefully the Dodgers will promote a decent prospect from Chattanooga, but I’m starting to wonder if they’re going to pull a Florida and keep all the young guns (Webster, Eovaldi, Withrow, etc.) away from here to save their precious confidence. Otherwise the Topes’ rotation is Ely, Eveland, Keisler (all of whom have been decent, with Ely the most erratic), plus Tim Sexton (smoke and mirrors) and now Joey Newby (fine in relief, not so much stretched out). I fear for the coming of the 4-hour games as the pitchers around the PCL wear out in the summer heat…
Comment by Chris Jackson— July 15, 2011 #
Perhaps a team rule was “don’t give up a homer every other inning”?
I’m also not afraid to admit that I have absolutely no idea what a “Joey Newby” is. To the internets!
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— July 15, 2011 #
Haha that has to be a placeholder name; for some Australian pitcher that Jackson couldn’t recall the actual name of. Right?
Comment by crushinator— July 15, 2011 #
He’s a real person: http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=t342&t=p_pbp&pid=459011
Best name on the team, hands down. His MiLB mugshot looks like mine did on my first college ID. Albeit hopefully with less of a hangover…
Sadly, the Topes are Aussie-less right now, which has come as a huge disappointment to the five drunk guys who sit near home plate and chanted relentlessly (out of love) for Oeltjen while he was here.
Comment by Chris Jackson— July 15, 2011 #
But would you trade Kemp for Harper?
Comment by Travis— July 15, 2011 #
As someone that has seen Harper play about 50 times over the last several years, I wouldn’t trade Kemp for Harper. Harp is very immature and “only personal opinion” I don’t think he will grow out of that persona.
Comment by west coast ram— July 15, 2011 #
If “don’t give up a homer every other inning” was a Dodgers organization rule, Ted Lilly would be LOOOONG gone.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— July 15, 2011 #
I don’t think you understand. Snell gave up LITERALLY a homer every other inning. His HR/9 is three times higher than Lilly’s.
Comment by Taylor Maricle— July 16, 2011 #
You know…I am saddened by Ian Snell. He had so much promise.
Comment by Ned Colletti— July 15, 2011 #
Do us a favor Ned, and don’t try to trade for Dotel at the deadline. You already got Guerrier to be your expensive middle reliever who gets lit up in the late innings. You don’t need a duplicate.
Comment by The Dude Abides— July 15, 2011 #
Wouldn’t it seem logical for Frank to want Ned to sell off some of the more expensive guys on our roster so that he has a better chance of making payroll for the entire season? If that was the case, I still couldn’t see someone like Kemp or Kershaw or even Billingsley/Ethier get dealt (all those guys are fan favorites and the PR backlash would be devastating), but the Kuroda/Carroll ideas are decent. And it’s worth pointing out that, yeah, we all know that our “best” relievers (McDougal, Guerra, Hawksworth, Kenley J) aren’t all they’re cracked up to be, but considering that EVERY contender needs relief pitching down the stretch, isn’t it possible that some “traditionalist” GM would look at their ERAs (1.74, 2.33, 3.00, and 4.40, respectively) and contract situations (all dirt-cheap, all except McDougal under team control for 2012 and beyond) and throw us something of potential value for one or more of them?
Comment by SamL— July 15, 2011 #
I’d like to keep Hawksworth and especially Jansen, but I could see the others being moved. We all know MacDougal’s ERA is a mirage, and Guerra is about as replaceable as they come. Won’t bring back much, but maybe a longshot young guy or something.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— July 15, 2011 #
There is an upside to Navarro starting more often: he won’t be able to pinch hit in the ninth.
Comment by Bill Grabarkewitz— July 15, 2011 #
Comment by Jeff— July 15, 2011 #
(snicker)
Comment by Jeff— July 15, 2011 #
If they’re going to sell I would like to see Loney and Link go to Washington for Jesus Flores (c). Send Kuroda and Kuo to Boston for Ryan Lavarnway (c) and Wil Middlebrooks (3b). Not sure if either team would make those deals but it would provide young catching and a near ready 3b prospect. I hope we do not become buyers as there is no good scenario of trading our prospects with Ned in charge.
Comment by jeff— July 15, 2011 #
Dude, I think you’re dreaming. Why would Washington and Boston want the players you mentioned?
Comment by Jeff— July 16, 2011 #
[...] Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness runs through buy, sell, and “other” scenarios for the Dodgers. [...]
Pingback by Baseball Blogs Weigh In: K-Rod, Holland, Shields | Forex News— July 15, 2011 #
Why is Chad Shelledagain-ingsley “obviously” off limits? Trade “his never gonna be anything more than a mediocre fourth starter” rear end to any team foolish enough to offer more than a marginal prospect for him.
Comment by Ron— July 15, 2011 #
I see, I see. And replace him with who, exactly?
Comment by Jeff— July 15, 2011 #
Bills never going to be more than a fourth starter, and a mediocre one at that? He hasn’t been great by his own standards this year, and he’s been one of the better second starters. Seriously, look at the stats. He’s around 35th-45th in the MLB in every important category, so if we say that top 30 is a #1 starter, that makes Bills a very solid #2 during a down year. This is out of 112 qualifying pitchers, by the way.
Comment by Bip— July 16, 2011 #
Bills would only be a #4 on the Phillies, and Clayton Kershaw would arguably be the #4 on the Phillies.
Comment by Bip— July 16, 2011 #
Being sixth worst in baseball in any stat is pretty bad, bring sixth worst in a stat the usually is a pretty good indicator of how good you team is is even worse. I’m not saying, I’m just saying. ,
Comment by @BrocNessMonster— July 16, 2011 #
Well articulated, good sir!
Comment by Jeff— July 16, 2011 #
[...] Allowed merchandise/advertisements to be produced which celebrated both the 1962 and 1966 World Series championship seasons and the career of former catcher Lou Campanella, who wore #42 with the Dodgers. (added 7/18/11 – thanks, Luke) [...]
Pingback by The Collected Sins of the Frank & Jamie McCourt Era « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— July 18, 2011 #
Forbes gives Kershaw some love. http://blogs.forbes.com/tomvanriper/2011/07/18/baseballs-best-pitchers-for-the-buck/
Comment by Pramod Patel— July 18, 2011 #
[...] that even if Kuroda is willing to go somewhere, the Dodgers might not really want to trade him. I agreed with that stance about ten days ago, when I said that if trading Kuroda would only bring back some [...]
Pingback by Hiroki Kuroda’s Trade Possibilities « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— July 25, 2011 #
[...] Carroll or Rod Barajas that probably won’t bring back much. It may not be exciting, but as I suggested a few weeks ago, that might always have been the best [...]
Pingback by Trading Season Heats Up, But Maybe Not For the Dodgers « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— July 27, 2011 #
[...] hard not to think that Kuroda has hurt the chances to do that, even if only in a small way. A few weeks ago, I noted that I would be more than okay with keeping Kuroda to soak up some innings over the last [...]
Pingback by I’m More Disappointed In Hiroki Kuroda Than I Thought I’d Be « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— July 30, 2011 #
[...] only because Barajas sprained his ankle; he received another 37 scattered plate appearances before sent down again upon Barajas’ recovery. As Navarro continued to struggle, we wondered yet again why Ellis was [...]
Pingback by MSTI’s 2011 in Review: Catcher « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— October 3, 2011 #
[...] it’s hard not to think that Kuroda has hurt the chances to do that, even if only in a small way. A few weeks ago, I noted that I would be more than okay with keeping Kuroda to soak up some innings over the last [...]
Pingback by MSTI’s 2011 in Review: Starting Pitchers, Part 3 « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— November 4, 2011 #