What to Watch For the Rest of the Season
August 3, 2011 at 7:09 am | Posted in Clayton Kershaw, Matt Kemp | 74 Comments
With the excitement of the trading deadline fading in the rear-view mirror and Rubby De La Rosa‘s immediate future going along with it, we’re left with the realization that we still have 1/3 of the season left. While it may seem like an interminable slog to the finish line for a team that is going nowhere… well, I don’t quite know how to end that sentence.
Nonetheless, there’s still reasons to pay attention to this team during the dog days of August and September.
How will the Dodgers finish the season?
I’ve often said that if the club isn’t challenging for the playoffs, then whether they lose 87, 91, or 95 games really doesn’t make a whole hell of a lot of difference to me. Still, it’ll be interesting to see just how this team responds over the final two months.
Currently, their 50-59 record is good for a .459 winning percentage. Over the course of a full season, that comes out to 74-88, which seems about right. You could argue that maybe they improve by a bit, since they had their hottest streak of the season in July and have won their first two in August, or you could also see them slipping somewhat as there’s some uncertainty in the rotation now that de la Rosa is gone. Either way, they’ll likely end up between 72-76 wins, which is almost something of an achievement for rookie manager Don Mattingly.
Also included in this is how high of a draft pick they’ll have in 2012; currently, they’re tied for 8th.
Can Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw challenge for the MVP and Cy Young Awards?
Awards are not won by WAR alone, but it’s hard not to notice that Kemp is atop the NL WAR batting leaderboard, while Kershaw is third on the pitching list. The Dodgers haven’t won both awards in a single season since Kirk Gibson and Orel Hershisher had the honor in 1988, and while it’s unlikely to happen again this year, each should likely get at least a few first-place votes. The road is probably more difficult for Kershaw, who has to contend with Roy Halladay having arguably the best year of his stellar career while playing on the best team in the league, in addition to quality seasons from Cole Hamels, Jair Jurrjens, Cliff Lee, and others. If I had a vote, I’d probably cast it for Halladay right now, though finishing second to Doc is hardly an insult.
Kemp’s path is easier; he’s far outclassing Andrew McCutchen, Ryan Braun, and Jose Reyes, though there’s some who will probably prefer Reyes since he plays well at a tougher position. Much of this probably depends on whether the Dodgers stay semi-competitive or completely fall apart down the stretch; the idea of national recognition alone gives the rest of the season an added bit of interest.
Who might get moved in August waiver deals?
Remember, July 31 was just “a” deadline, not “the” deadline, so we could still see some minor moves. If Casey Blake proves his health, he could be a nice bench piece for a contender, and guys like Rod Barajas, Dioner Navarro, Tony Gwynn, Aaron Miles, and Mike MacDougal might also draw some small interest.
Don’t expect anything above a C-prospect for those guys, of course.
Who could we see get recalled in September?
Here’s where the Trayvon Robinson trade really hurts, because he was the prospect we were most looking forward to. At the moment, there’s only six healthy members of the 40-man roster not currently in the bigs, and we’ve all seen them at various times this season: Ramon Troncoso, A.J. Ellis, Ivan DeJesus, Russ Mitchell, Jerry Sands, and Jamie Hoffmann.That’s probably it as far as hitters, though that could change based on injuries or trades. For pitchers, we could also see Dana Eveland or Jon Link come up from ABQ; less likely, though immensely more interesting, is the idea that AA standouts Nathan Eovaldi, Allen Webster, Shawn Tolleson, or Steven Ames could get a cup of coffee in the bigs. (Though if Tony Jackson is to be believed, we might see Eovaldi as soon as next week.)
That would require them to be added to the 40-man roster, but spots there are no problem whatsoever, since de la Rosa, Jon Garland, and Vicente Padilla are all still on the 15-day DL and could be moved to the 60-day list. If Jonathan Broxton‘s latest attempt at a comeback doesn’t work, add him to that list too.
Is this the end of (name a player) as a Dodger?
For a few long-time Dodgers, yes. We’ve already seen Rafael Furcal move on, and this is almost certainly the end of the line for Blake, who won’t have his 2012 option picked up. I don’t think it’s a guarantee yet, but I’d put it at 80/20 that James Loney is non-tendered, particularly as he’s fallen back off (.176/.225/.230 in July) after a promising June (.337/.381/.404). I also can’t imagine Barajas is invited back, since he’s been awful this year and Ellis is out of options for next season. Then there’s Jamey Carroll, who has been excellent, but will be a 38-year-old free agent in February.
On the pitching side, Hiroki Kuroda has yet to commit to whether he will return for another year or head back to Japan. My guess is that he wouldn’t have bothered rejecting a trade if he was just going to leave anyway, and he’s certainly still pitching well enough for another year, so I’ll say 60/40 that he returns. Broxton is still working towards returning this year; whether or not he does, he’s almost certainly gone. Padilla’s injuries have probably ended his tenure with the Dodgers, if not in baseball entirely. And who the hell knows what’s happening with Hong-Chih Kuo these days?
Who’s playing for a job in 2012?
Barring a completely unexpected offseason move, the only two hitters with starting jobs locked down for 2012 are Kemp and Andre Ethier. Juan Uribe will get his share of time as well if only because of his contract, though he’s been so awful that it’s hard to simply hand him a starting job.
The obvious answer here is Dee Gordon, who will play every day at shortstop for the rest of the season to see if he’s ready to handle the job full-time next year. I imagine Sands will get another good look in September as well, in hopes he can be part of the 1B/LF mix next year, and keep an eye on the two low-cost veterans who have been performing surprisingly well, Miles and Gwynn, as they shoot for starting jobs on next year’s team. If Eovaldi or any other prospects turn some heads in September, they could force their way onto the roster too.
Is this it for Vin Scully?
Yeah, it’s that time of the year again: wondering if we’ll see Vin back for another season. I have absolutely no inside info on this, and my guess is that Vin doesn’t either. If he doesn’t want to travel any longer, I’ve long felt a good compromise would be to have him call only home games, plus the short trips to Anaheim and San Diego, if he likes. If nothing else, he’s a reason to keep watching, because you never know how much longer we’ll have him.
Besides, he’s Vin. If he chooses to call games via cell phone from his bathroom, I think we’d all be happy to have it.
What’ll happen with the ownership situation?
Oh, wait, I know the answer to this one: it’ll continue to be long, painful, and make us hate ourselves. That was easy.
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Really hope Vin comes back. His departure will more than cap this season from hell.
Comment by Julio— August 3, 2011 #
I think Kershaw has a better chance to win the Cy Young than Kemp has to win MVP, for two reasons: 1. In recent years, the Cy Young has been less tied to team performance than MVP. Neither SHOULD be tied to team performance, but that’s the way the MVP has gone. 2. I think the fact that three of the top 5 competitors for the Cy pitch for the Phillies will affect the voting. Homer-ish writers (of which there are MANY) for the Phillies will split that vote up.
That said, my Cy ballot would go 1. Hallady 2. Kershaw 3. Lee. All have been ridiculous this year, as has Hamels. Jurrjens I think has been good, but rather lucky as compared to the other guys. My MVP ballot would be 1. Kemp 2. Berkman 3. Reyes.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— August 3, 2011 #
I don’t see a problem with MVP being tied to team performance because the award isn’t called the “best player” award. While it’s true that Jose Bautista is more valuable than Adrian Gonzalez in a vacuum, it’s certainly understandable if one asks “what is Bautista valuable for if it still doesn’t get his team to the playoffs?” My issue is that if the MVP is for the most valuable player for a team where it mattered, then there should ALSO be an overall best player award to reward players like Bautista.
Comment by Bip— August 3, 2011 #
I know it’s a little more complex than this, but Kemp’s value is going to be like 8 wins this year. Whether that gets a team from an 82 win season to a 90 win season and the playoffs or from a 62 win season to a 70 win season and still the bottom of the barrel, the VALUE is exactly the same. It’s not fair to keep him from an individual award because Juan Uribe is worth -8 wins.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— August 3, 2011 #
That’s the thing though, isn’t the point of the MVP to reward contribution to a contending team? It’s like complaining that Matt Kemp isn’t in the running for World Series MVP. I don’t see why rewarding the biggest contribution to a contending team is a bad thing, the only problem I see isn’t that there isn’t another award that awards players regardless of team performance.
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I guess the point is that yes, an 8 win player deserves to be rewarded, but MVP isn’t the award to do it with. It’s apples to oranges.
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The argument I’m NOT making, and the argument that I can’t stand is “well he couldn’t have been THAT valuable or his team wouldn’t be in last place.” It’s people that assert that MVP should go to the best player no matter what and then disregard players on bad teams that are diluting the award.
Comment by Bip— August 3, 2011 #
Someone else makes a point further down that a $100 bill in an expensive Louis Vuitton wallet is worth exactly the same as a $100 bill crumpled up in a pocket. Only in real estate do surroundings determine value.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— August 3, 2011 #
If you need $200 to buy something and you have $50, adding that $100 alone won’t make a difference. Either way you’re still short. However, if you have $150, then adding $100 will make a difference. Ultimately though, I don’t see the point of complaining that the MVP doesn’t always go to the best player when that’s not the purpose of the award in the first place.
Comment by Bip— August 4, 2011 #
It IS the purpose of the award to me. The best player has more value than any other player.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— August 4, 2011 #
My worry about guys like Miles and Gwynn is that they will catch Belliard/Marlon Anderson disease. Reasonably productive for one year, then terrible the next and kept on the roster until July when the are so bad they are finally DFA’d. Lets hope we don’t see Navarro/Barajas next year. But we all know that a 2 week hot stretch in September will bring them back again. I agree with Dave P’s rationale about why Kershaw would normally have a better chance than Kemp. For kemp to be MVP I think he will have to be MORE than just the overall BEST. Like 1 or 2 in BA, HR and RBI’s and 40 steals wouldn’t hurt either. But 1/3 of a season is a long time so lets see if he will stay motivated. I believe he will. Finally good luck to Loney. perhaps he can turn it around on a new team and hit like he did when he first came up.
Comment by DAVID S— August 3, 2011 #
MVP seems like it also rewards intangibles, with fan perception of how valuable a player is playing a huge role. This could benefit Kemp because I think people know that he single handedly carries the Dodger offense (as Vinny reminds us every night) but it could also hurt him because some may still have this perception of him as not having his head in the game.
Comment by Bip— August 3, 2011 #
That disease is loosen referred to as reality. These are guys who aren’t good at baseball who are on a little hit streak. It happens. Marlon and Ronny are great examples.
Comment by @BrocNessMonster— August 3, 2011 #
Loosely* hot* streaks*
Wow. My apologies for not proof reading.
Comment by @BrocNessMonster— August 3, 2011 #
Webster’s defines valuable as: 1. having monetary value or 2. having desirable or esteemed characteristics or qualities. How did the talking heads and or writers come up with the addendum-on a contending team? A stat like WAR is able to assign value apart from the context of your team. To say something like, “I’d vote for Kemp if the Dodgers weren’t a bad team,” shows you don’t understand the definition. Is a dollar more valuable if it’s in a nice wallet as opposed to stuffed in an old jacket pocket? Is Matt Kemp a better hitter, baserunner, or fielder if he plays for the Phillies? Value is not dependent or your surroundings, it’s apart from that. I guess you could argue that Lance Berkman or Prince Fielder are better players this year than Matt Kemp, but you’d be wrong.
Comment by Deuce— August 3, 2011 #
I agree with you, Deuce, but you’re arguing “what SHOULD happen”, as opposed to “what WILL happen”. Whether or not we agree, there are baseball writers who will take into account a team’s place in the standings.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— August 3, 2011 #
No doubt. But it’s frustrating to see Kershaw and Kemp’s accomplishments minimized because of the situation they find themselves in. Neither will likely win the awards, but that doesn’t mean a great case can’t be made for them.
Comment by Deuce— August 3, 2011 #
Unfortunately the award is called Most VALUABLE, not best. And that’s the excuse for not picking the best player when he plays for a team in last place. Valuable can also mean ‘of great importance’. And as the owner of the Pittsburgh Pirates said when he didn’t give Ralph Kiner a raise when he led the league in HRs, ‘We came in last place with him, we can come in last place without him’
Comment by DAVID S— August 3, 2011 #
Point taken, David. However, I still think it’s a poor argument. If the MVP on a division winning team has a WAR of 6, but the team wins the division by 8 games, does the owner say “No raise, we would have won the division without you?”
Comment by Deuce— August 3, 2011 #
guys have won MVP’s on bad teams before, look at Andre Dawson in 87 with the cubs. I think Kemp is the favortie. Berkman and Fielder are having great seasons and they have the power numbers, but there not hitting as high for average as kemp is, and they dont have the steals. reyes is really good, but he doesnt have the power. Kemp has the average power and speed. he really should win it. a team’s place in the standings really should have little to do with it. dont forget Steve Carlton winning a cy young for a last place Phillie team.
Comment by format— August 3, 2011 #
Look, Barajas has like 13 kids (that I could count from that father’s day commercial) and he’s from L.A. and he loves it here so he should definitely stay here.
Comment by BMcD— August 3, 2011 #
Sure he should stay in LA. Just not as the starting catcher for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— August 3, 2011 #
Yeah. Bullpen catcher? Sure. I’d hate to make.home move all those kids.
Comment by @BrocNessMonster— August 3, 2011 #
If Kemp goes 40/40 and the blue can play a little competitive baseball in September (as in, this team can finish in third place, and could play a role in who wins the division & wild card by potentially knocking AZ or SF out of the race) — I think he’s got a great shot at MVP. He’s clearly been the best player in the league and it’s been a down year for Pujols – who would split votes with Berkman anyway. Braun and Prince could also spilt — unless one or the other has a huge September. But, Matty has gotta reach 40-40 for a shot. That will make writers stand up and recognize the performance.
Kershaw, on the other hand, is probably going to finish second. Even with the logjam in Philly between Doc, Lee and Hamels… its pretty clear Halladay is the best Ace among them. That said, If Kershaw reaches 20 wins (I know, MSTI, wins don’t mean much to you, but 20 Ws on this Dodger team would be a significant acheivement since Kershaw is completing games now) and leads the league in K’s and is top 3 in ERA… he’s going to collect a lot of CY votes — and Halladay has a stockpile of those awards already.
Comment by Vegas Blue— August 3, 2011 #
Awards or not, if Kemp gets to 40/40 and Kershaw wins 20 it will put a nice bow on a season filled with crap.
Comment by west coast ram— August 3, 2011 #
I have to say, even though you all know how little I care about pitcher wins, having a “20″ in front of Kershaw would really be nice to see.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— August 3, 2011 #
For me, 20 wins just means we won’t need to listen to Erik Karros or those other dipshits refer to him as a solid #2/ace in training anymore.
Comment by @BrocNessMonster— August 3, 2011 #
But then the only reason they’ll point to when saying he’s good is “he won 20 games”, haha.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— August 3, 2011 #
but they don’t. Everyone has been gushing over Kershaw this year
Comment by Juan Pierre— August 3, 2011 #
Yeah it’s nice to see Kershaw get some real respect. It seems like some in the old fashioned baseball have been the slowest to catch up. Chris Singleton on ESPN claims that Kershaw has become a Matt Cain type guy, and then saying “not your filthy stuff like Lincecum” as if it’s a given. I wanted to write him a long letter showing how Kershaw is in every way better now than Matt Cain has ever been, and has had a batter 2010 and 2011 than Lincecum.
Comment by Bip— August 3, 2011 #
@Bip
Either you’re misremembering or Erik.Karros just happened to say the exact same thing. Unbelievable. Matt Cain is good, Kershaw is way better.
Comment by @BrocNessMonster— August 3, 2011 #
I don’t doubt Karros said it too. Here’s the video of Singleton saying it: http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=6788660
I wish more than anything I was on that show so I could set that guy straight.
Comment by Bip— August 4, 2011 #
I agree, 100%. It’s just too annoying anymore.
Comment by @BrocNessMonster— August 4, 2011 #
Wins as a pitching stat are worthless unless you win 20 games on one of the lowest scoring teams in the league.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— August 3, 2011 #
If you take a closer look at key stats, a VERY strong argument can be made that Kershaw is having a better year than Halladay. Yeah, Halladay has a lower ERA and only walked 19 batters. They’ve both got 13 wins and almost exactly the same innings pitched. But Kershaw has 25 more strikeouts (#1 in NL), higher K/9 (#1 in NL), a much lower BAA, a lower BABIP, & given up 21 fewer hits than Halladay. Their WHIPs are almost identical. Halladay has 6 CG but no shutouts while Kershaw has 4 CG and 2 shutouts. Halladay has struck out 10+ batters twice this year while Kershaw has done it 6 times. And the fact that Kershaw has done everything on a team with NO offense makes it all the more impressive. At this point, it seems to me that, overall, Kershaw has been more dominant so far. But i think it’s Halladay’s insanely low walk total, his reputation, and the success of his team that drives his value up.
Comment by MaxPower— August 3, 2011 #
Don’t forget about innings. Halladay has more despite making one fewer start. Also, while Kershaw’s K rate is a good deal higher than Halladay’s, Halladay’s walk rate is less than half Kershaw’s, which is more significant. I agree that Kershaw is Halladay’s toughest competition, but I think Halladay still has the edge.
Comment by Bip— August 3, 2011 #
I gotta disagree about walk rate being more important than K rate. Missing bats is the most important thing a pitcher can do. (Not walking guys is the second most important)
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— August 3, 2011 #
Missing bats is quickly neutralized if you give up a lot of walks though. Look at Brandon Morrow and Jonathan Sanchez as examples. And also, my point is that while Kershaw has more strikeouts than Halladay, Halladay has WAY fewer walks. The difference between Kershaw and Halladay in strikeouts is less dramatic than the difference between them in walks.
Comment by Bip— August 3, 2011 #
I’d agree if Kershaw was still walking like 4.5/9 like he did till about halfway through last year, but he’s not. And Kershaw neutralizes it further by allowing fewer hits. Halladay’s WHIP is 1.01, Kershaw’s is 1.03. If they both pitch 220 innings, that’s 4 baserunners over the course of the year. Kershaw also allows fewer extra base hits – he’s allowing a .300 slg percentage to Halladay’s .315. There’s definitely a VERY strong argument for Kershaw over Halladay.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— August 3, 2011 #
Also, surprisingly, Kershaw has gotten good run support. For whatever reason the Dodgers offense manages to look like a big league offense when he’s on the mound. They save all their terrible games for Kuroda’s starts.
Comment by Bip— August 3, 2011 #
Ned should be use to looking at other club’s C prospects as that is all he ever asks for in trades. There is a funny bit in the most recent article on Grantland about what the conversation might have sounded like between the Ms, RedSox and Dodgers just prior to the trade deadline. It’s so comforting to know that almost everyone thinks our GM is mentally challenged.
Sorry to those mentally challenged that were offended by the comparison.
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/6826808/part-1-vanquished
Comment by west coast ram— August 3, 2011 #
Ned just wants to thank you for the compliment!
Comment by dodgers66— August 3, 2011 #
Who is playing for a job in 2012? I’m thinking haven’t you seen the play of Juan Rivera? He is going to be a FA and I think a 3 year, $24 million offer will keep him right here.
Comment by Ned Colletti— August 3, 2011 #
I’d take him over offering that same deal to Loney!
Comment by west coast ram— August 3, 2011 #
Yeah, if Juan keeps playing like an actual major leaguer, I have a feeling that Bernie will sign him for at least 2012. I will also be watching the players Bernie traded away. I want to see J-Mac, Raffy, Tray, Xavier, and Josh Bell do well. I’m even following Pimentel, who has started to mow batters down in High A this season (he’s the guy who Bernie traded for the execrable Scotty Pods).
Comment by The Dude Abides— August 3, 2011 #
Well… To start it off, Raffy provided about as much production today for the Cards as he did all year for the Dodgers.
Comment by @BrocNessMonster— August 3, 2011 #
I can’t wait for Furcal to have a killer stretch run for St. Louis – which I fully believe he’ll do, since as he got healthy he was starting to be productive in his last week or two as a Dodger – and then have a ton of LA fans complaining “why did we trade him?!”
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— August 3, 2011 #
If Furcal has a great stretch run, Ned will re-sign him 3/$30mil
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— August 3, 2011 #
Ha, Dave I cringed! I wonder if Needy tries to throw 1yr / $8MM at him to come play 2nd, and (of course) hand the 3rd base job to Uribe.
Comment by @BrocNessMonster— August 4, 2011 #
I wouldn’t mind Raffy to play 2B (or 3B – he has a CANNON) on a 1 year, low base, incentive laden contract. We don’t have any other internal options, and I think the only decent free agent is Brandon Phillips.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— August 4, 2011 #
Part of Ned’s master plan when getting rid of Trayvon, 3 year deal for Juan Rivera Ned loves his veterans one less prospect in the mix
Comment by dodgers66— August 3, 2011 #
Great article mike, even the dreary truth seems better after you put it into your own words
Comment by Andy— August 3, 2011 #
thanks!
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— August 3, 2011 #
Kemp, Kershaw, and Vin. The only bright lights in the remainder of an absolutely dismal season.
Comment by Justin— August 3, 2011 #
Deuce,
I know it is a bad argument, but I think many voters are voting for who they think is the ‘most valuable’, and that guy need not be the best. Weren’t we reading a while back that Jamie Carroll was the Dodger MVP? And for WAR, I don’t know if these guys are giving that much consideration.
Comment by DAVID S— August 3, 2011 #
So true, David. It’s funny how perception can change and then become reality. Like the LA sportswriters believing that Ned is a good GM because the Dodgers made the playoffs. Guess that’s why we need blogs like MSTI.
Comment by Deuce— August 3, 2011 #
Sure, if it wasn’t for Blogs we would have to rely on Plashke and Simers for our Dodger info.
Comment by DAVID S— August 3, 2011 #
True, the Dodgers won’t sniff the playoffs this year, but w/o Kemp’s play they would be dwelling in a sub-basement of hell unknown to even the Astros. Surely some writers have got to take that into account. And he’s doing it with NO protection! Oh, well…
Comment by Casey— August 3, 2011 #
in 1988, Gibson may not have been the best player, but he was the MVP.
Given that the Snakes are playing Cody Ransom, who is not the worst player in the NL only as long as Eugenio Vélez remains with the Dodgers, Casey Blake would be a terrific acquisition for them. Of course, after today the Gnats may have priority over them.
Comment by WBB— August 3, 2011 #
I wonder if Velez is SO bad that it’s actually worth rooting for the return of Juan Uribe. If Casey Blake hasn’t hurt himself again by the time Uribe is back, it has to be a Velez DFA to open up a spot, right?
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— August 3, 2011 #
OK , hear you. However, Mattingly doesn’t feel he has to play Velez everyday to “get him going.” I’d rather have 3 bad AB’s a week as opposed to 4 bad ones every night.
Comment by Deuce— August 3, 2011 #
If Vélez had the same opportunities as Uribe, he’d do a lot more damage (to the Dodgers).
Comment by WBB— August 3, 2011 #
Regardless of how the individual awards play out, Dodger fans can feel very positive about the progression of Kemp and Kershaw. Kemp, from the depths of last year, and Kershaw, just showing an amazing upward career trajectory. Kemp probably won’t get MVP: as has been pointed out, it isn’t for the best player, but for the most valuable. That’s why you usually see it going to guys on playoff teams, who arguably got their team there. Plus, as has also been pointed out, a lot of voters may not relate that well to WAR. No matter. Kemp has arrived and we can only hope the Dodgers don’t screw up and lose him. He’s a potential HOFer.
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Kershaw probably won’t get the Cy, but who cares? He’s 23-years-old. Halladay is 34. Hamels is 27. Kershaw will get his awards. The challenge is going to be to keep him. The Cy isn’t as team-dependent as the MVP, but the team performance does matter. To get the Cy on this crappy team, Kershaw would have to come across to the voters like Steve Carlton did back in ’72 with an even crappier team. But all Carlton did was have a Koufax-like year. I know you guys don’t like wins-losses and ERA, but for Kershaw to even sniff the Cy, he’d have to win 20, have a very low ERA and lead the league in strikeouts. Wins, ERA and strikeouts are the traditional pitchers’ triple crown. Carlton did it in ’72 with a last-place team. His WAR was 12.2 on a team that won 59 games.
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I’d keep an eye on Billingsley and Ethier. Billingsley seems to be regressing and doesn’t show any signs of truly improving at his craft. Same with Ethier. I think an astute general manager—not that the Dodgers have one, you understand—would be really thinking about these two guys at the winter meetings, particularly when you consider that they’re starting to make some serious $$. Billy Beane might know how to play it to get some serious talent for these two guys, but it’s anybody’s guess how Colletti might play it. Poorly, would be my bet. No matter how it plays out, I’m not real excited about seeing either of these two, especially Billingsley, staying with the Dodgers.
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As for the rest of ‘em, you bet, entice Kuroda back. He is still a good pitcher. Look at his rating. Far higher than Billingsley. The rest of the pitching staff is down there is no-mans land, as are the position players. Get rid of Blake, get rid of many others. Keep Carroll. He’s better than many of the younger guys. Blow up this team. Not many of them are good enough to feel secure in having a major league job. Fans shouldn’t have to pay good money to go see the likes of Barrajas and Uribe, among others. Play the young guys.
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The Dodgers have become the Kansas City Royals. Or the Pittsburgh Pirates. Wait, they’re both better than the Dodgers!
Comment by SC Dodger— August 3, 2011 #
Great article MSTI. I’m so glad for Matt Kemp. He caught 9 kinds of Hell after last season (which I still blame on Colletti for calling him out in the press).
This organization has something to build on with Matty and the kid. If we could just get rid of the nightmare that is Frank McCourt and our dimwitted GM…
Comment by fmcourtistheantichrist— August 3, 2011 #
Talked to Trayvon today as he returned to ABQ with the Tacoma Rainiers. He was not the same upbeat guy as before:
http://www.examiner.com/baseball-in-albuquerque/robinson-makes-emotional-return-to-albuquerque
Tim Federowicz struck out swinging in his first at-bat here.
Comment by Chris Jackson— August 3, 2011 #
I hate you so much Ned…. so much. Not only do you make stupid trades, you crushed the dreams of a player, despite the shit sandwich with piss flavored mustard that is the Dodgers organization right now, who actually wanted to be here…. who spent his whole life wanting to play for the Dodgers.
I hope you get fired Ned Corky from Life Goes On
Comment by dpwtv— August 3, 2011 #
seriously, i dont know if ill ever stop being straight up angry about that deal. to me, that’s the lowest low point, rock bottom if will.
Comment by doug noves— August 3, 2011 #
Don’t forget King Felix won the Cy Young with a bad team last year he wasn’t going against Halladay though.
Comment by jeff— August 3, 2011 #
Nice article, Mike. BTW…
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>> That would require them to be added to the 40-man roster, but spots there are no problem whatsoever, since de la Rosa, Jon Garland, and Vicente Padilla are all still on the 15-day DL and could be moved to the 60-day list.
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So what’s the roster status on Monasterios, who seems to often get overlooked? I mean, I know he’s shown as being on the 40-man. Does someone need to be on the major-league roster in order to move them to the 60-day? If not, I assume they could move him to the 60-day too, no?
Comment by nsxtasy— August 3, 2011 #
Yes, Monasterios would need to be called up to be put on the 60 day DL, I believe. That would give him MLB service time throughout his injury, which I’m sure they don’t want to do. So what I bet they will do is let him stay as is for as long as they can, and then DFA him when the roster becomes an issue, because he’d probably get through unclaimed.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— August 4, 2011 #
Thanks for the confirmation. And I’m not sure he would get through unclaimed. If they thought he would get through, it would make more sense to DFA him now, when he is still facing a recovery period of 10-12 months, than when he’s closer to recovery.
Comment by nsxtasy— August 4, 2011 #
Oh, and of course there’s plenty of room on the 40-man now. It remains to be seen how things will shake out after this winter. I know several of the guys we just picked up before the deadline are Rule 5 eligible, which means we will need to put them on the 40-man if we want to keep them from getting waived by another team. Although any team doing so under Rule 5 would then need to keep them on their 25-man big-league roster for an entire season, and I’m not sure any of them are worth it, at least not at this point.
Comment by nsxtasy— August 4, 2011 #
I don’t have a full list of the minor leaguers who will need 40-man spots in front of me, but off the top of my head this club is going to open up a ton of space. Some of these guys may get retained, but initially all of these dudes are off the roster after the year: Kuroda, Garland, Padilla, MacDougal, Broxton, Barajas, Navarro, Loney, Miles, Blake, Carroll, Gwynn, Oeltjen, Velez, Rivera. Obviously, they won’t ALL be gone, but most will, so that’s a lot of room to play with.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— August 4, 2011 #
Yes, there’s a lot of room to play with. But we will also need to replace the players who are leaving, to build a new 25-man roster with a rotation, bullpen, catchers, infield, and outfield. Very few of those spots will be filled by those currently on the 40-man and not the 25-man – probably only Sands and Ellis – so we’re going to have to be adding players, either by acquisition (free agents or trades) or by promotion from the minors. So that “room to play with” will be needed by all the new players we bring in. And we’ll need the 40-man slots for all of our Rule 5 players that we don’t want to risk losing.
Comment by nsxtasy— August 4, 2011 #
Mike,
You always provide great analysis on the Dodgers. I agree with you that Kemp will have an easier time than Kershaw gaining some hardware this season. Here is a visual of the top NL MVP contenders: http://experiencesap.wordpress.com/2011/08/04/nl-mvp-race/
SAP has developed some new Baseball analytics that can easily generate graphics. Please feel free to use our tools to further enhance your future Dodgers analysis: http://experience.sap.com/baseball/index.htm
Cheers,
Comment by Experience SAP— August 4, 2011 #
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