Dodgers Fail to Perfect “Win Without Offense” Strategy
August 16, 2011 at 8:14 pm | Posted in Chad Billingsley, Mike MacDougal | 51 Comments
With the game tied at one in the bottom of the ninth, Hong-Chih Kuo started the frame off by walking Prince Fielder on six pitches. Kuo didn’t look good doing it, and with righties Casey McGehee and Yuniesky Betancourt following, Don Mattingly strode to the mound and called to the bullpen for his righty, which was absolutely the correct move.
Unfortunately, coming in wasn’t Javy Guerra, who hadn’t pitched since Friday and has allowed just one earned run in the last two months. It was Mike MacDougal, who threw 2/3 of an inning last night and is, you know, Mike MacDougal. I’ve defended Mattingly a lot this season, but much of this loss lies on him, as he fell victim to the same mistake that managers have been making for decades, which is saving their closer for a lead in a tie game on the road.
Or as I put it on Twitter at the time,
Whenever you can bring Mike MacDougal in to a tied game with a man on in the bottom of the 9th, you have to do it.
Let’s be fair for a second, because Guerra is hardly a top-tier closer, and this isn’t as egregious as Clint Hurdle refusing to use Joel Hanrahan through 19 innings simply because he didn’t get the lead. But it’s still pretty bad. If you have a guy you’ve identified as “the closer”, and you use him to “save games”, well, sometimes there are other ways to save the game than to get the final outs with a lead. I’d think that making sure the home team doesn’t walk off with a win before you get a chance to hit again would count as saving the game, but there’s always the alternative of “letting one of your worst relievers lose the game while your better ones watch” is always an option too.
MacDougal immediately allowed a hard-hit single to McGehee, moving Fielder to second. Here’s the best part, though. The Brewers tried to help the Dodgers by giving them an out, as Betancourt attempted to sacrifice bunt. MacDougal refused the gift, walking him on four pitches. Now with the bases loaded, one of the few hitters in baseball more impotent than Betancourt came up, Mark Kotsay. One pitch later, Kotsay had lined the game-winning hit to center field, and the Brewers celebrated around Fielder at the plate. Few things in baseball are more reliable than Mike MacDougal blowing a game in the late innings, except perhaps the continued refusal of managers to deploy their bullpen assets at the right time. (Kuo came down with the loss, though, because this sport still keeps records the same way they did in 1891.)
Of course, this isn’t all on Mattingly and MacDougal, since the offense managed just one run on four singles against Milwaukee starter Yovani Gallardo and old friend Takashi Saito. That’s one run over the two games of this series, in case you haven’t been keeping track, and when that’s the kind of offense you’re putting up, it probably doesn’t matter if you’re throwing out Mike MacDougal or 1990-era Dennis Eckersley in the late innings.
But it’s cool, because the Brewers are only tossing out Zack Greinke tomorrow, so, good luck with that, Nathan Eovaldi.
All that being said, let’s not ignore the performance from Chad Billingsley, who got off to a rough start by allowing five baserunners in the first two innings (one, granted, on a Juan Rivera error), generally throwing a lot of pitches, and looking for all the world like he wouldn’t last beyond 3.2 innings. He then turned it around to retire nine in a row in the third, fourth, and fifth innings, ending up allowing just one run over seven innings. Coming off last week’s “99 pitches, no strikeouts, and unable to hold a 6-0 lead in 4.1 innings” disaster against the Phillies, being able to come back from an uneven start to keep the club in the game against a tough opponent was a pretty nice accomplishment.
On a side note, Trent Oeltjen pinch-hit for Billingsley in the top of the 8th, and not only did he draw a walk, he made me think, “hey! Trent Oeltjen is still on this team. Who knew?” Apparently, no one: Oeltjen hasn’t started since July 5, 35 Dodger games ago. Only twice in that time has he even managed to get in the field, and while I’m certainly not about to start any sort of “free Trent Oeltjen” campaign, you can imagine that a guy might get a little rusty sitting around like that.
******
So here’s something I’ve been looking forward to for a while: Christopher Jackson of the Albuquerque Baseball Examiner, who’s really becoming our go-to guy on the high minors, has a look at the Rule 5 eligible players the Dodgers will need to make decisions on this offseason. Most interesting there is the news that Tim Federowicz and Stephen Fife, both acquired in the Trayvon Robinson deal, will not need to be placed on the 40-man roster. That’s contrary to what we heard at the time, but since Jackson spoke with both DeJon Watson and MLB itself, I think we can trust his reporting.
According to Jackson, the Dodgers have eight players who will need to either be added to the 40-man roster or exposed to the draft:
Most of the notable Rule 5-eligibles are at Double-A Chattanooga. They include left-hander Michael Antonini, third baseman Pedro Baez, catcher Gorman “Griff” Erickson, infielder Elian Herrera, right-hander Will Savage, outfielder Alfredo Silverio, first baseman-outfielder Scott Van Slyke and catcher Matt Wallach.
Much can change between now and the December draft, though I think it’s safe to say that Erickson, Silverio, Van Slyke, and Wallach are likely to be added. Antonini, Herrera, and Savage are roster filler, and can we please finally turn Baez into a pitcher already? This is a topic we’ll delve into with more detail after the season ends, but there’s clearly no shortage of 40-man roster spots to add any youngsters they need: with Dee Gordon and Juan Uribe each on the DL, 11 of the 13 offensive players currently on the active roster are something less than locks to be on next year’s roster.
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Mattingly really is a terrible manager, or hes just inexperienced or both. he makes the same mistakes every game and never learns from his mistakes. thats my biggest problem with him, he refuses to learn from his mistakes. why have have Oeltjen hit for Bills when Bills was pitching so well. especially when theres no one on base and two outs, and the odds of Oeltjen getting a hit were almost nill. not having ELbert start the 9th was stupid. I knew as soon as Macdougal entered the game it was blown. another mattingly mistake he does almost every other game is he picsk one reliever to come in (usually the wrong one) and he leaves him in to either get out of the inning or lose it right there. no backup plan at all. its either all or nothing with him, and counting on Macdougal for an all or nothing outing isnt going to work. sometimes hell have someone throwing in the pen as backup, but usually its either too late, or he doesnt use them. he does this with the starters too. its called Meltdown prevention. he just cant prevent the meltdown. Dougie had another meltdown, he should have been pulled after the first hitter he faced, and Kuo should have never been brought in. they need to either fire Mattingly in the off year, or let him manage in the minors for a couple of years so he can get some experience. lousy managers cost teams games.
Comment by format— August 16, 2011 #
I like how you question whether a rookie manager is inexperienced.
Comment by Brandon— August 16, 2011 #
mattingly sucks. accept it. a better manager wins more games.
Comment by format— August 16, 2011 #
Convincing argument. You know a better pitcher than Kershaw wins more games, I guess Clayton sucks.
Comment by Brandon— August 16, 2011 #
thats a very poor rational. brandon.
Mattingly just sucks. he cant prevent meltdowns. he leaves pitchers in way too long that should clearly be taken out. he gives away outs by bunting almost every inning, and he puts better hitters at the bottom of the lineup.
look at Arizona, they have a very similar team from last year, yet there in first place. a big reason why is because they have a good manager. good managers can help teams win more games.
Comment by format— August 16, 2011 #
More rational than your thinking. Although I’ll agree it’s frustrating how he always on bats Barajas below Kemp.
Comment by Brandon— August 17, 2011 #
Arizona doesn’t have a similar team. 4 of their 5 starters have an ERA+ of over 100 (to the Dodgers 2). They’ve also scored 100 more runs than the Dodgers. That is the reason they are in first place. This has more to do with personnel than Mattingly.
I agree that he makes some poor decisions at times, but calling for his head after one year with a team this bad is a poor decision of Joe Torre proportions (who Mattingly is already light years better than).
And sorry for the reply fail
Comment by SV Narine— August 17, 2011 #
He just should never have been made manager in the first place. Managing is not royalty. You don’t get to be manager because you’re the “son” of the previous one. I don’t know who actually chooses the next manager, but it seemed like Torre wanted Mattingly and therefore Mattingly was chosen, which he really shouldn’t have had the power or influence to do.
Comment by Bip— August 17, 2011 #
I agree Bip. it seemed unfair, and now it seems like a big mistake since were going to finish 76-86. he had no qualifications or experience other than hes Don Mattingly and studied under Torre.
Comment by format— August 17, 2011 #
I don’t disagree with either of you that anointing Mattingly as manager just because he was “the guy” seemed unfair. If you go back through my posts at the time, you’ll see that I heavily stumped for Tim Wallach.
However – I completely don’t agree with the idea that having Wallach, Torre, Walter Alston, or any other manager who ever lived would have changed this team’s record by a meaningful amount. The team just isn’t that good.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— August 17, 2011 #
Scapegoat!!
Comment by Bip— August 18, 2011 #
exuse me not having Guerrier start the 9th. not Elbert
Comment by format— August 16, 2011 #
Good news about Fedex not being a Rule 5 guy, as it makes that trade less stupid, albeit more likely that Juan Rivera signs for 2 yrs/$7m. I was surprised that Kuo got the call to start the 9th against Fielder, instead of Elbert. Had Elbert already pitched two nights in a row?
Comment by The Dude Abides— August 16, 2011 #
Mike, you forgot to mention Kemp. Yes it would’ve been a long shot, but Big Fat Fielder was on 3rd and hesitated off the bat because it was close to being caught. If Matt had fielded it cleanly and throw home, they might’ve had a force play. Instead as soon as the ball hit the ground Kemp LET it roll by him.
Comment by Brandon— August 16, 2011 #
are you really blaming Kemp for that Brandon? come one. as soon as Macdougal entered the game it was blown. and I mean the instant he was brought in. everyone in the world knew he would blow the game.
Comment by format— August 16, 2011 #
Good grief, can you read?
Comment by Brandon— August 17, 2011 #
And Yes, I’m blaming Kemp for letting the ball roll by him. Unless you think Mattingly told him to do that.
Comment by Brandon— August 17, 2011 #
this makes no sense. So, there’s no point in trying to prevent a MacDougal meltdown because the fates have decreed it.
Comment by Bip— August 17, 2011 #
Nah. There was no prayer of getting the out at home. As soon as the ball dropped, the game was over.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— August 17, 2011 #
Not that 42 MiL PAs mean much of anything, but it’s good to see that Federowicz is on the right side of the hitting stats, as opposed to how he started off. Will be interesting to see if he gets a shot with the September call-ups and what he does with that chance, if so.
Comment by Wil— August 16, 2011 #
The next Pacific Coast League notebook on MiLB.com will be led with FedEx on Monday. Anything I don’t get in there will go into a separate story on Examiner.
* * *
Last Topes’ homestand starts on Saturday. If there are any stories the Dodger faithful would like to read, I am always open to suggestions.
Comment by Chris Jackson— August 16, 2011 #
Just seconding MSTI’s comment about Chris Jackson being the go-to guy in the high minors. Thanks for the information you provide on this site.
Comment by The Hatch— August 17, 2011 #
Thanks Chris! Personally, I’d be interested to hear your thoughts, Mike’s thoughts and others about the youngsters and where they may or may not fit on a 2012 Dodgers roster already filled with holes for next season. Seems like there will be more then enough spots that need a warm body and yet a lot of these guys seem like they will be just slightly premature to bring up. However, the Dodgers are getting some good returns on their young pitching callups thus far, so maybe it’s time to take a chance on some position players besides just Dee? So who fits best where and are they ready for the big leagues?
Comment by Wil— August 18, 2011 #
Trent Oeltjen is on the team, and is ignored in favor of Tony Gwynn and James Loney (essentially). This is a guy with a .429 OBP in the minors, and before you go saying inflated Albequerque stats, .407 OBP and .560 slg% on the road. I guess the Dodgers are just looking at his batting average (.382 at home and .297 on the road) and deciding that he just doesn’t have it. Give me a break.
Comment by Tony M. Fernández— August 17, 2011 #
I agree 100%, Tony. It’s been p#ssing me off ever since Oeltjen was called up that the Dodgers have buried him. He had a helluva game in Minnesota, I think in his first few days, then who the hell did he p#ss off? I heard he had to be promoted, or lost, according to his contract. Never fear, however, likely we’ll see Russ Mitchell get another 50 worthless ABs come September.
Comment by lWerthFan— August 17, 2011 #
Guys don’t get a shot, nothing new with this team.
Comment by DodgersKings323— August 17, 2011 #
From a bit by Tim Dierkes on MLB Trade Rumors
He speculates on some of the possible non-tender candidates.
Loney is of course there. Some other interesting players: Andes Torres – might Colletti pick him up as a SF Giant overrated player with a good year during the Giants WS run and with little to no value at an inflated price, ala Uribe? Ditto for Jonathan Sanchez
Luke Hochevar – spurned the Dodgers as a draftee and then went to KC and was a bust – would Ned like another shot at him?
I vote ignoring all, but we know Ned
Comment by Kirk Davenport— August 17, 2011 #
Ned’s great at finding market inefficiencies. It’s just that the inefficiencies he finds are caused by something being overvalued.
Comment by Bip— August 17, 2011 #
I just can’t stand that MacDougal blows another game and its once again not reflected in his ERA. I feel like Mattingly has such a short memory that he uses MacDougal as if he was effective because he has a great ERA, while not remembering why it’s good.
Comment by Bip— August 17, 2011 #
This team is awful ughhhhhhh
Comment by format— August 17, 2011 #
Brewers arent supposed to have good pitching. this isnt fair >.<
Comment by Joey E.— August 17, 2011 #
Love the title Mike!
I guess you can just repeat it after tonight’s game…
Comment by Jon#7#22— August 17, 2011 #
Tonight was a perfect example of how throwing out base stealers is only a small part of total catcher defense. One could arguably pin all three Brewer runs on Navarro.
Comment by The Dude Abides— August 17, 2011 #
Fife and Fed ARE rule 5 eligible this year actually.. where is that author getting his facts? Thats why the sox traded them… bc they didn’t have room and didn’t want to lose them for nothing!
Comment by Tom— August 17, 2011 #
Chris called the league office and specifically asked about those two.
Comment by The Dude Abides— August 18, 2011 #
So all the red sox articles saying that they are rule 5 eligible the past year have been wrong? I find it hard to believe that the Red Sox would mess something up like that.. interesting info
Comment by Tom— August 18, 2011 #
Actually, I think the Red Sox traded them because they got a Major League starter for organizational depth. None of those three were anywhere close to cracking the bigs in Boston – FedEx is well behind Lavarnway, and the other two are throw away pieces.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— August 18, 2011 #
You may be right about that, but I was just referring to the many articles in Boston stating otherwise.. here is just a few of huge bunch. I don’t understand how Theo messed their rule 5 years up.. that’s all.
http://soxblog.projo.com/2011/08/40-man-roster-l.html
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/12540/projecting-sox-decisions-on-40-man-roster
http://articles.boston.com/2011-08-01/sports/29839315_1_clay-buchholz-ryan-lavarnway-tim-federowicz
Comment by Tom— August 18, 2011 #
I don’t see any quotes directly from Theo in those articles saying that these guys were Rule 5 eligible, looks like it’s just the reporters.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— August 18, 2011 #
True.. well big opps by then b/c that means that the Red Sox entire list of ‘rule 5 eligible’ guys is wrong since they are including their first year signed in Low A short season. Big fail
Comment by Tom— August 18, 2011 #
Nathan Eovaldi didn’t do so bad against Greinke. Is Eovaldi a serviceable option as a full-time rotation member next year? Or will he be held back by inning limits/ineffectiveness?
Comment by Bip— August 18, 2011 #
Does it annoy anyone else how Lyons constantly is saying that Sellers could steal the SS position? He obviously is a candidate for 2B right? I don’t even understand why Steve Lyons could be so stupid. I think the Dodgers need to add to their shopping list “New Non-NL West Away Game Announcers.” Or am I the only one who thinks he’s awful and full of himself?
Comment by RedSoxNation3— August 18, 2011 #
He has made some pretty stupid comments in the past but I’m for eliminating the “color/analyst” position altogether. Most of them never shut up and act like the viewer is watching the game of baseball for the first time. Who wants a breakdown on every single pitch or play? I demand a one person booth!!!!!!!
Comment by west coast ram— August 18, 2011 #
cuz Dee Gordon’s black. Lyons is racist.
Comment by anonymous— August 18, 2011 #
Joel Hanrahan left LA as a minor league free agent. Did we just give up on him?
Comment by gprobins— August 18, 2011 #
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