2011 August « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness

Apparently, Yesterday Was a Turning Point for James Loney…

August 4, 2011 at 6:49 am | Posted in James Loney | 49 Comments

….since all three major Dodger beat writers – Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times, Tony Jackson of ESPNLA, and Ken Gurnick of dodgers.com - have written stories in the last 12 hours about Loney’s disappointing season and tenuous future in Los Angeles.

Hernandez:

Mattingly said he doesn’t know which player is the real Loney.

But as far out of first place as the Dodgers might be, Mattingly said he hasn’t reached the point at which he would play Loney every day for the sake of finding out the answer to that question.

While Mattingly maintained that Loney could still be the player he was at the end of last season, he appears to be ready to concede that he might not ever become a home-run threat.

Loney hit 15 home runs in 96 games as a rookie in 2007 but only 36 over the next three seasons. He has four home runs this year.

“It hasn’t to this point and it’s been a while,” Mattingly said.

Jackson:

James Loney is making $4.875 million this year, and he has one more winter of arbitration eligibility. Simple logic would suggest that the Dodgers won’t go there with him this year, that if he doesn’t agree to a salary for 2012 far below the roughly $5.5 million he would stand to make through arbitration, they will simply bid him adieu.

The Dodgers need to add power to their punchless lineup. Even if Andre Ethier gets back to his normal home run production next year to complement Kemp, they still need a third big bat. It doesn’t appear as if Loney is ever going to be that guy, and given that he plays what traditionally is a power position, the Dodgers would have to add a power bat at a non-power position — perhaps a Jeff Kent-type player at second or a Cal Ripken type at short — to make up for that.

Gurnick:

James Loney is having his worst season after a bad second half last year, and he’s not even the everyday first baseman anymore, manager Don Mattingly saying Loney will continue to share time with Juan Rivera when Rivera isn’t playing left field.

All of that means Loney is at the top of the list of likely non-tender candidates come December, as the Dodgers are unlikely to pay him a raise from the $4.875 million he receives this year.

“It was a bad month for me last month [.176, five RBIs] and we’re trying to win baseball games,” Loney said, understanding of his reduced playing time. “They know I can play better than I have over this year.

The impetus for this sudden barrage, it seems, was Loney’s split-second appearance as a pinch-hitter in the 7th inning of Wednesday’s 3-0 loss to San Diego. With men on second and third and one out, Loney came up to hit for pitcher Ted Lilly. San Diego manager Bud Black removed starting pitcher Tim Stauffer in favor of rookie lefty reliever Josh Spence. Don Mattingly countered by immediately replacing Loney with Casey Blake, so while Loney’s name appears in the box score, he never actually played. On the surface, it seemed innocuous enough – Loney’s struggles against lefties are well-known, and Spence has allowed just five hits in 38 plate appearances against fellow southpaws this year, with a 15/0 K/BB, so there’s no reason Loney should have hit there. (Blake was intentionally walked, and Dee Gordon and Aaron Miles each failed to get anyone home, as you likely inferred by the fact that the Dodgers were shut out.)

But since Loney was once an “RBI threat” – whatever that means – apparently the fact that he wasn’t allowed to hit in a situation with men in scoring position late in the game is the clearest sign yet of his fall from grace. Perhaps it is, though Loney’s struggles have been well-documented here going back at least two years. Remember how bad he was in April, when we were all talking about how bad his season would be on a historical scale? Yeah, after a dead cat bounce in June – which I dutifully praised him for – his July was worse than ever:

Split	G	PA	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
April/March	28	112	22	1	1	12	5	16	.210	.241	.248	.489
May	28	100	27	5	2	6	7	5	.293	.350	.413	.763
June	25	97	30	3	1	10	7	12	.337	.381	.404	.786
July	25	81	13	4	0	5	5	10	.176	.225	.230	.455
August	3	7	0	0	0	1	0	2	.000	.000	.000	.000

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/4/2011.

The total there is good enough for the 10th-worst OPS in MLB, and other than the inexplicable collapse of Adam Dunn, every single one of the guys performing worse than Loney are up the middle players, either 2B, SS, or CF. We could cite any number of stats pointing out his ineptitude – among players with as many PA as Loney has, he’s the 6th worst player by TAv – but in this case it’s not really necessary, because the eye test is clearly good enough.

Getting pinch-hit for in the late innings of a close game or not, it’s clear that Loney’s tenure as a Dodger is coming to an end. To his credit, his quotes in the above stories reflect a player who understands that he hasn’t been performing, and I’d also praise Mattingly for not slavishly continuing to play him every day when the production isn’t there. Loney’s an all-but-guaranteed non-tender following the season, though it should be noted there’s no obvious replacement for him in 2012, either.

What to Watch For the Rest of the Season

August 3, 2011 at 7:09 am | Posted in Clayton Kershaw, Matt Kemp | 74 Comments

With the excitement of the trading deadline fading in the rear-view mirror and Rubby De La Rosa‘s immediate future going along with it, we’re left with the realization that we still have 1/3 of the season left. While it may seem like an interminable slog to the finish line for a team that is going nowhere… well, I don’t quite know how to end that sentence.

Nonetheless, there’s still reasons to pay attention to this team during the dog days of August and September.

How will the Dodgers finish the season?

I’ve often said that if the club isn’t challenging for the playoffs, then whether they lose 87, 91, or 95 games really doesn’t make a whole hell of a lot of difference to me. Still, it’ll be interesting to see just how this team responds over the final two months.

Currently, their 50-59 record is good for a .459 winning percentage. Over the course of a full season, that comes out to 74-88, which seems about right. You could argue that maybe they improve by a bit, since they had their hottest streak of the season in July and have won their first two in August, or you could also see them slipping somewhat as there’s some uncertainty in the rotation now that de la Rosa is gone. Either way, they’ll likely end up between 72-76 wins, which is almost something of an achievement for rookie manager Don Mattingly.

Also included in this is how high of a draft pick they’ll have in 2012; currently, they’re tied for 8th.

Can Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw challenge for the MVP and Cy Young Awards?

Awards are not won by WAR alone, but it’s hard not to notice that Kemp is atop the NL WAR batting leaderboard, while Kershaw is third on the pitching list. The Dodgers haven’t won both awards in a single season since Kirk Gibson and Orel Hershisher had the honor in 1988, and while it’s unlikely to happen again this year, each should likely get at least a few first-place votes. The road is probably more difficult for Kershaw, who has to contend with Roy Halladay having arguably the best year of his stellar career while playing on the best team in the league, in addition to quality seasons from Cole Hamels, Jair Jurrjens, Cliff Lee, and others. If I had a vote, I’d probably cast it for Halladay right now, though finishing second to Doc is hardly an insult.

Kemp’s path is easier; he’s far outclassing Andrew McCutchen, Ryan Braun, and Jose Reyes, though there’s some who will probably prefer Reyes since he plays well at a tougher position. Much of this probably depends on whether the Dodgers stay semi-competitive or completely fall apart down the stretch; the idea of national recognition alone gives the rest of the season an added bit of interest.

Who might get moved in August waiver deals?

Remember, July 31 was just “a” deadline, not “the” deadline, so we could still see some minor moves. If Casey Blake proves his health, he could be a nice bench piece for a contender, and guys like Rod Barajas, Dioner Navarro, Tony Gwynn, Aaron Miles, and Mike MacDougal might also draw some small interest.

Don’t expect anything above a C-prospect for those guys, of course.

Who could we see get recalled in September?

Here’s where the Trayvon Robinson trade really hurts, because he was the prospect we were most looking forward to. At the moment, there’s only six healthy members of the 40-man roster not currently in the bigs, and we’ve all seen them at various times this season: Ramon Troncoso, A.J. Ellis, Ivan DeJesus, Russ Mitchell, Jerry Sands, and Jamie Hoffmann.That’s probably it as far as hitters, though that could change based on injuries or trades. For pitchers, we could also see Dana Eveland or Jon Link come up from ABQ; less likely, though immensely more interesting, is the idea that AA standouts Nathan Eovaldi, Allen Webster, Shawn Tolleson, or Steven Ames could get a cup of coffee in the bigs. (Though if Tony Jackson is to be believed, we might see Eovaldi as soon as next week.)

That would require them to be added to the 40-man roster, but spots there are no problem whatsoever, since de la Rosa, Jon Garland, and Vicente Padilla are all still on the 15-day DL and could be moved to the 60-day list. If Jonathan Broxton‘s latest attempt at a comeback doesn’t work, add him to that list too.

Is this the end of (name a player) as a Dodger?

For a few long-time Dodgers, yes. We’ve already seen Rafael Furcal move on, and this is almost certainly the end of the line for Blake, who won’t have his 2012 option picked up. I don’t think it’s a guarantee yet, but I’d put it at 80/20 that James Loney is non-tendered, particularly as he’s fallen back off (.176/.225/.230 in July) after a promising June (.337/.381/.404). I also can’t imagine Barajas is invited back, since he’s been awful this year and Ellis is out of options for next season. Then there’s Jamey Carroll, who has been excellent, but will be a 38-year-old free agent in February.

On the pitching side, Hiroki Kuroda has yet to commit to whether he will return for another year or head back to Japan. My guess is that he wouldn’t have bothered rejecting a trade if he was just going to leave anyway, and he’s certainly still pitching well enough for another year, so I’ll say 60/40 that he returns. Broxton is still working towards returning this year; whether or not he does, he’s almost certainly gone. Padilla’s injuries have probably ended his tenure with the Dodgers, if not in baseball entirely. And who the hell knows what’s happening with Hong-Chih Kuo these days?

Who’s playing for a job in 2012?

Barring a completely unexpected offseason move, the only two hitters with starting jobs locked down for 2012 are Kemp and Andre Ethier. Juan Uribe will get his share of time as well if only because of his contract, though he’s been so awful that it’s hard to simply hand him a starting job.

The obvious answer here is Dee Gordon, who will play every day at shortstop for the rest of the season to see if he’s ready to handle the job full-time next year. I imagine Sands will get another good look in September as well, in hopes he can be part of the 1B/LF mix next year, and keep an eye on the two low-cost veterans who have been performing surprisingly well, Miles and Gwynn, as they shoot for starting jobs on next year’s team. If Eovaldi or any other prospects turn some heads in September, they could force their way onto the roster too.

Is this it for Vin Scully?

Yeah, it’s that time of the year again: wondering if we’ll see Vin back for another season. I have absolutely no inside info on this, and my guess is that Vin doesn’t either. If he doesn’t want to travel any longer, I’ve long felt a good compromise would be to have him call only home games, plus the short trips to Anaheim and San Diego, if he likes. If nothing else, he’s a reason to keep watching, because you never know how much longer we’ll have him.

Besides, he’s Vin. If he chooses to call games via cell phone from his bathroom, I think we’d all be happy to have it.

What’ll happen with the ownership situation?

Oh, wait, I know the answer to this one: it’ll continue to be long, painful, and make us hate ourselves. That was easy.

Let’s Get to Know Nathan Eovaldi

August 2, 2011 at 7:24 pm | Posted in Andre Ethier, Nathan Eovaldi | 16 Comments

I’m halfway through writing a “reasons to watch the rest of the season” post, and included in it is a look at what prospects we might see recalled when rosters expand on September 1. There’s the usual assortment of A.J. Ellises and Jamie Hoffmanns, but I also mentioned the slight possibility that some of the outstanding arms currently residing at AA Chattanooga could get a quick look.

Well, that “slight possibility” may have just gotten a little larger, based on this tweet from ESPNLA’s Tony Jackson, who generally knows what he’s talking about:

Educated guess on my part, but I’m predicting Nate Eovaldi will start next Tuesday night against Phillies.

Maybe Jackson’s right about Tuesday, and maybe he’s not, but it’s as good an excuse as any to take a closer look at Eovaldi, who is enjoying something of a breakout season in AA and is expected to challenge for a spot on the 2012 Dodgers.

First, Eovaldi’s superficial line:

Year	Age	Tm	Lev	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	HR	BB	SO	WHIP	H/9	BB/9	SO/9
2008	18	2 Teams	Rk	0.84	7	0	10.2	7	1	0	3	11	0.938	5.9	2.5	9.3
2009	19	Great Lakes	A	3.27	26	16	96.1	95	48	2	41	71	1.412	8.9	3.8	6.6
2010	20	3 Teams	A+-Rk	4.30	20	18	98.1	108	52	3	37	72	1.475	9.9	3.4	6.6
2011	21	Chattanooga	AA	2.62	20	19	103.0	76	41	3	46	99	1.184	6.6	4.0	8.7
4 Seasons				3.30	73	53	308.1	286	142	8	127	253	1.339	8.3	3.7	7.4
Rk (2 seasons)			Rk	2.25	11	4	24.0	16	7	0	7	25	0.958	6.0	2.6	9.4
A (1 season)			A	3.27	26	16	96.1	95	48	2	41	71	1.412	8.9	3.8	6.6
AA (1 season)			AA	2.62	20	19	103.0	76	41	3	46	99	1.184	6.6	4.0	8.7
A+ (1 season)			A+	4.45	16	14	85.0	99	46	3	33	58	1.553	10.5	3.5	6.1

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/2/2011.

If there’s one thing that stands out there to me, it’s his apparently impressive ability to keep the ball in the park, having allowed just 8 homers in over 300 innings. That doesn’t necessarily mean it translates to the bigs – I don’t have to remind you the varying level of competition he faces in the lower leagues – but impressive nonetheless.

Eovaldi didn’t make Kevin Goldstein’s Top 20 Dodger list at Baseball Prospectus – in the comments, he referred to him as a “middle reliever” – though when I asked him if his 2011 had changed his opinion at all, Goldstein replied, “absolutely“. Eovaldi’s step forward this season has really turned heads, as Mike Newman of Scouting the Sally has been gushing about him all year. In June, he posted this scouting report from an April start:

Excellent size; Eovaldi looked closer to 210 lbs. than his listed weight of 195

Well-proportioned frame; Size through the quads and shoulders; Athletic pitcher’s frame

Fluid delivery with good pacing; Generates easy velocity

High 3/4 arm slot; Limits movement on his fastball

94-96 MPH 4-seam fastball

4-seamer lacked movement; Worked pitch in-and-out effectively

Maintained velocity throughout the start; Still touching 95 MPH in the 5th

91-92 MPH 2-seam fastball; Some arm side run

84 MPH slider; Best breaking ball; Used as out pitch

Pitch featured late cut; Depth improved throughout the course of the game

78 MPH curveball; Threw sparingly; One CB was thrown behind RHH to backstop; Below average offering

83-84 MPH Changeup; Threw sparingly; Slowed arm action

From a velocity standpoint, Eovaldi nearly matched Rubby De La Rosa pitch-for-pitch. As impressive as that statement is, Eovaldi’s fastball lacked the movement to make the offering elite. Add to this a plethora of breaking pitches in need of further refinement, and Eovaldi is on his way, but not ready for Los Angeles yet. As one of the youngest pitchers in the Southern League, he has plenty of time to improve and become more than a fastball/slider pitcher.

He followed that up with this report on July 19 at RotoHardball:

Since the pick, Eovaldi has admittedly had a couple of shaky starts, but I attended one of those starts in which he was clearly working on his secondary pitches which lag behind his potent four seam fastball. After a first inning which saw Eovaldi work 94-96 MPH, touching 97, he spent the rest of the game throwing 2-seam fastballs, sliders, and changeups, often throwing four or more of the same pitch consecutively. And although I prefer watching prospects work on mixing pitches effectively throughout a game as they would in the big leagues, I can also see the value in forcing a pitcher like Eovaldi to attack hitters with secondary pitches he may not have complete confidence in. Strike out a hitter like Diamondbacks Paul Goldschmidt (Eovaldi’s opponent in the outing) using a “baptism by fire” approach can do wonders for a pitcher’s confidence.

At minorleagueball, John Sickels ran an “Alternate Universe” draft in May, trying to see where high schoolers drafted in 2008 may have fit in the 2011 draft if they’d went to college:

Nate Eovaldi, RHP: 11^th round pick in 2008 by the Dodgers, bought away from Texas A&M for $250,000. Erratic track record but has a live arm, power sinker, and is pitching well in Double-A this year. I’d mark him as a third-round candidate in the 2011 class.

When neither Goldstein or Sickels included Eovaldi in their top 20 prospects before the season, it’s hard to think that Eovaldi has “star” written on him, though he may profile as a solid mid-rotation starter if his 2011 progression is for real. Sounds like we may see for ourselves sooner than later.

******

The lineup for tonight’s game in San Diego, which just started a few minutes ago, may pique your interest:

Gordon SS, Blake 3B, Miles 2B, Kemp CF, Rivera RF, Loney 1B, Navarro C, Gwynn LF, Kuroda P

That’s right; Andre Ethier is out, and Aaron Miles is hitting third. Joe Block reports that there’s nothing wrong with Ethier, saying:

Mattingly said Ethier getting routine day off, since he seemed frustrated last night and his poor numbers vs Latos

Ethier has three hits in 16 PA against Latos, which doesn’t seem like a large enough sample size to matter. While I don’t mind Ethier getting a breather now and then, it does seem very odd to do so against a righty, when Ethier’s struggles against lefties are so well chronicled.

Rubby de la Rosa Is Hurt, Because of Course He Is

August 2, 2011 at 7:08 am | Posted in Rubby de la Rosa | 37 Comments

Suddenly, trading Trayvon Robinson for filler might no longer be the worst thing that happened on Sunday afternoon.

Tony Jackson:

Rookie right-hander Rubby De La Rosa faces the possibility of season-ending elbow surgery after an MRI exam on Monday revealed a sprained ulnar-collateral ligament. A team spokesman said De La Rosa and the medical staff presently are considering a handful of treatment options, one of which would be surgery.

Dodgers medical-services director Stan Conte said De La Rosa reported tightness in his elbow immediately after leaving the game, but that he initially had felt it while throwing a pitch in the third inning. De La Rosa saw team physician Dr. Neal ElAttrache, who recommended he undergo an MRI exam.

Oh, you just knew throwing 103 pitches in four innings wasn’t going to end well, right? I wasn’t watching the game all that closely – as you might remember, I was trying to figure out what the hell a “Tim Federowicz” was at the time – but clearly the results weren’t there, with four walks, two homers, and a wild pitch, and Don Mattingly is later quoted in Jackson’s article as saying his body language “looked different”.

I’m no doctor, but I’m pretty sure we can count the number of guys with serious arm injuries who have “considered other treatment options” and didn’t end up with surgery on one hand. (If this sounds familiar, it’s because Carlos Monasterios just spent three months trying to rehab what was initially termed “elbow inflammation” before finally submitting to the knife last week.) And if you’re getting surgery on your ulnar collateral ligament, that is almost always Tommy John surgery, depending on the severity. Some will point out that de la Rosa reportedly has a “sprained” ligament and not a “torn” one, but that’s semantics: a sprain is a tear.

If de la Rosa does end up with Tommy John surgery – and again, that’s not confirmed, so I don’t want to get too far ahead of ourselves, but it sounds overwhelmingly likely – the timing means that we won’t see him back in Dodger blue until late 2012 at the earliest, or more likely not until 2013. Considering everything else we’ve had to put up with this season and on the heels of Kenley Jansen‘s cardiac concerns, that seems like an unnecessary punch in the gut, but I suppose we shouldn’t be surprised by anything at this point.

I also imagine some will feel this vindicates Hiroki Kuroda’s decision to stay, as the Dodgers would be looking at a rotation that included both John Ely and Dana Eveland right now if Kuroda had been traded and then de la Rosa was injured. It’s an easy fallback, though I don’t really agree: 2011 was cooked a long time ago anyway, so it doesn’t really make much of a difference to me if they’re losing 3-1 games with Kuroda, or 6-1 games with Ely.

A few weeks ago, I looked at how far the club would let de la Rosa go, considering he was nearing his career high for innings pitched. At 100.2 combined this year, he didn’t even match 2010′s 110.1, though there’s evidence that MLB innings are more stressful than MiLB frames. Either way, I find it hard to blame the Dodgers for their handling of the young pitcher. He threw 100 pitches or more just three times, and only once did he go above 113; even on Sunday, he was still hitting the upper 90s and got six of the twelve outs he managed via strikeouts. Though we probably will never know for sure, the injury likely happened during de la Rosa’s tough outing on Sunday, and there wasn’t really anything that anyone could have done about it. Young pitchers get hurt, unfortunately. It happens.

The silver lining, if there is one, is that Tommy John surgery is nearly routine at this point, with an overwhelming success rate. Just to cherry-pick two recent examples from Washington, Jordan Zimmermann had his procedure in early August of 2009, returned to the bigs in late August of 2010, and has been one of the club’s best starters this year; Stephen Strasburg went under the knife in late August of 2010, and has reportedly been hitting 95 in bullpen sessions with a small chance that he sees MLB time in September. Nothing is guaranteed, but it’s in no way the death of a career like it was for decades, or even the risky procedure it was up until the last 10 years or so.

Of course, it would have a huge impact on the 2012 Dodger rotation, which is already questionable at best behind Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley. But that’s a question for another day. For now, let’s hope for the best for young Rubby De La Rosa.

******

Unrelated, but all of the trade deadline craziness on Sunday pushed July just past June as the month with the highest traffic in blog history, which means that the top two have come in the last two months. Thanks for reading, even despite all of the off-field garbage and on-field disappointment.

The Aftermath of the Trayvon Robinson Trade

August 1, 2011 at 9:16 am | Posted in Hiroki Kuroda, Juan Rodriguez, Stephen Fife, Tim Federowicz, Trayvon Robinson | 84 Comments

A day after the unexpected Trayvon Robinson trade with Boston & Seattle, the dust has started to settle, but the shock is still there. 98% of Dodger fans, at least the ones I’ve heard from, are horrified, and rightfully so. However, I want to clear up one misconception, and this is the same one I heard often when the Dodgers traded Carlos Santana for Casey Blake and several prospects for Scott Podsednik, Octavio Dotel, Ryan Theriot, and Ted Lilly last year: trading away a prospect, no matter how good, does not automatically make it a bad trade.

With the rise of the internet and social media, fans have become far more aware of prospects than they’d ever been before. For decades, fans would only perhaps know their team’s best prospect, if even that. Whereas before, you might have only heard of Robinson when he hit 26 homers in little more than half an AAA season, now you have fans who have been following his career for 3-4 years already. That’s not necessarily a bad thing; it’s good that fans have more interest in the team’s fuller organization. However, it also means that people get invested and attached to a prospect, and it’s understandably difficult when someone you’ve been dreaming about as a Dodger for several years gets shipped out weeks before he’s likely to make his debut.

That means that fans – not just Dodger fans, this happens on all teams – tend to overvalue their own players, and even yesterday on Twitter I saw people groaning about losing Robinson before even knowing who was coming back. I think that’s short-sighted, because I have no problem with trading prospects. A solid farm system exists to provide value, and while the obvious outcome is “good young player comes up to join the big club”, value can also come from “good young player is traded for immediate impact veteran or another good young player”. Depending on the circumstances, trading a top prospect is not always a bad thing – as long as you get value back. If the Dodgers are deep in outfielders and short in catching, than the idea of trading Robinson for an impact catching prospect is not a terrible plan.

The problem here is that few think Tim Federowicz is an impact catcher, and many doubt he can hit enough to even be a viable major league starter. This isn’t a new theme, because so far in Ned Colletti’s tenure, he’s often spent prospects to get players who were not of equal value. I didn’t mind trading Santana when we all thought Russell Martin would be here for 5-7 more years; I hated trading him for two months of a good-but-not-great third baseman. (If Santana had been sent to Cleveland for CC Sabathia that year rather than Blake, I guarantee you there wouldn’t have been anywhere near the same outcry.) I didn’t mind the idea of trading James McDonald & Andrew Lambo, two players unlikely to be stars, but the problem was a team that had no business going for it in 2010 trading them for an elderly reliever who wasn’t going to make a difference. This is why the Robinson trade stinks so bad, because you’re trading a top-5 Dodger prospect for three guys who are barely top-25 Red Sox prospects. (Jon Weisman has more on the newcomers at Dodger Thoughts.)

Worse, there’s also the feeling that this goes back to Hiroki Kuroda‘s refusal to accept a trade. Boston writers Gordon Edes and Sean McAdam each reported that Federowicz and Juan Rodriguez were initially discussed in negotiations for Kuroda, an assertion backed up by Ned Colletti’s comments that Federowicz was someone he’d been eyeing for some time. (McAdam says that a third prospect likely would have been included, though he doesn’t state if that was Stephen Fife or not.) Kuroda was clearly higher on Boston’s starting pitching shopping list than Erik Bedard, so if he agrees to the deal, the Dodgers send two months of Kuroda to Boston for a package nearly identical to the one that ended up coming for Robinson. That’s a deal that I think most of us would have been pretty satisfied with – I know I’d have been – and Robinson would have remained in the system. Remember when I said I was disappointed in Kuroda’s choice? Yeah, that paid off a lot quicker than I thought it would.

******

It’s no question that most Dodger fans don’t like the trade, but we’re not a fair sample. We’re biased. We loved Robinson, none of us had heard of the three Boston guys before yesterday, and we don’t trust Colletti. What’s really informative is looking outside our little sphere of Dodger fandom, and seeing what the feeling is on the other side of the trade and from the national writers who don’t cheer for either team. If the trade is getting positive reviews from those groups, then maybe we need to shift our way of thinking.

Not today, however, because just about every smart person who writes about baseball is completely confused about what the Dodgers are trying to do. Red Sox & Mariner writers are thrilled. Prospect writers are blown away. Just about everyone is united in killing the Dodgers over this; in fact, the only person I could find who wasn’t 100% against it was Steve Dilbeck of the LA Times, and even he could only muster an “it ain’t so bad”. Read these assorted quotes on the deal at your own risk.

Mainstream media!

Jeff Passan, Yahoo:

Los Angeles Dodgers, who couldn’t convince Hiroki Kuroda(notes) to drop his no-trade clause and gave up their top hitting prospect, Trayvon Robinson, an outfielder with pop and plate discipline, to get into the Erik Bedard(notes) three-way deal and land catcher Tim Federowicz and two arms. As is the case with everything Dodger-related this year, they are losers.

Evan Brunell, CBS Sports:

There was only one trade made the entire week in which a team was instantly ridiculed for its move. The Cardinals were headed for the loser’s seat before the waning minutes of the deadline, but Los Angeles took it away with a staggering display of incompetence. To help Boston facilitate acquiring Erik Bedard, the Dodgers agreed to trade away Trayvon Robinson, one of the few bright spots in the high minors that could actually hit. Robinson, along with Jerry Sands, could have made a pretty decent first base-left field combo over the next few years. Instead, Robinson will take his .293/.375/.563 line with 26 home runs in Triple-A to Seattle while the Dodgers come away with three organizational pieces.

And really, that’s all they are. You’ve got catcher Tim Federowicz, who has a strong defensive reputation but whose hitting will be challenged enough that he best profiles as a long-term backup catcher. Those aren’t tough to find. Add in starter Stephen Fife, who has pitched to Federowicz all season for Double-A Portland, who profiles as a back of the rotation starter or solid middle reliever. Lastly, Juan Rodriguez, a reliever who throws smoke but is 22 years old and in Class A. Splendid. Oh, and all three will be Rule 5 eligible after the year, meaning they need to be added to the 40-man roster or risk being lost in the draft — and all three would be strong candidates to be taken. The Dodgers, in one fell swoop, traded away one of their few high-ceiling prospects for three organizational players who will all require 40-man spots, which are incredibly valuable.

Nationally respected prospect writers!

Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus:

I spent 15 minutes after this trade waiting to hear which players I’m missing while simultaneously trying to talk Jay Jaffe off a ledge via instant messenger. The Dodgers took a perfectly good Top-11 prospect, a player who is having a great year at Triple-A and easily projects as an everyday outfielder, and received three pieces of fringe in return. You’d almost think Frank McCourt was running the team.

Keith Law, ESPN:

The Dodgers get … I’m not really sure what they get. Tim Federowicz is a catch-and-throw specialist who isn’t likely to produce enough at the plate to be an average regular, but is plus across the board behind the plate (including a career 34-percent caught-stealing rate) and is no worse than a good backup in the majors. Stephen Fife probably profiles as a right-handed reliever rather than a starter because he lacks the out pitch to start; he’ll touch 95 as a starter with a fringe-average curveball. Juan Rodriguez has a plus fastball, no average second pitch, and below-average command and control — a nice arm to add to your system but a reliever at best and not a high-probability guy either. Unless Robinson was somehow burning a hole in their pockets, this doesn’t make a ton of sense to me, as they didn’t get any prospect as good as he is in the exchange.

Statistically-inclined sites!

Jay Jaffe, Baseball Prospectus:

What the… excuse me… whiskey tango foxtrot? A deal sending a good prospect such as Robinson in one direction and a possible stretch-run helper such as Bedard in the other is the stuff deadline deals are made of, but what business did the Dodgers have for throwing their good prospect into this deal in order to enable somebody else’s stretch run acquisition without something to make it especially worth their while? Is Colletti expecting a playoff share from the Red Sox? A future job with the Mariners? Is this being written off as a charitable donation? Is it a cry for help from a man about to jump out the window? Is there somebody out there who will post bail if I fly to Los Angeles myself and extract a few teeth in search of the real truth?

(later in the article – MSTI) Against this bleak backdrop, the GM managed to make the situation worse by trading down in a deal he had no business butting into, punting away a future everyday player. This wasn’t the Angels taking on Vernon Wells‘ bloated contract or the Cardinals punting the future of Colby Rasmus, but it ranks among the most shockingly inept deals of the year. In a five-and-a-half year tenure that’s seen its good moments—three playoff appearances, including back-to-back trips to the NLCS—and bad ones (the Jason Schmidt contract, the Andruw Jones contract, the Juan Pierre contract, the Blake trade…), Colletti may have set a new low. That’s saying something.

Jack Moore, Fangraphs:

It did take four warm bodies to acquire Bedard, but that’s about it. None of the players moved by Boston appear on Kevin Goldstein’s top 20 organizational prospect list, nor do they appear in our Top 100 Prospects list or top 10 organizational prospect list. This isn’t to say they’re doomed to complete non-productivity in the Major Leagues — the prospects will be covered in a separate post — but the Red Sox don’t lose much from a good farm system and improve their chances at a World Series. Hard to argue with that logic.

Other Dodger bloggers!

Jon Weisman, Dodger Thoughts:

For those three, the Dodgers gave up Robinson (24 in September), who has a .375 on-base percentage and .563 slugging percentage (26 homers) this year for Triple-A Albuquerque. Robinson, who has hit well on the road as well as at home this season, has had his fine year marred by striking out 122 times in 100 games. But it’s stunning to see him traded for such an offensively challenged catcher and two sketchy pitching prospects.

In 2007, A.J. Ellis had a .382 on-base percentage and .409 slugging percentage in Double-A – better than what Federowicz has – and Ned Colletti does all he can to keep Ellis from getting regular playing time.

The only rationale I can think of is that the Dodgers think they’ll do better in the offseason trying to find a proper left fielder than they would trying to find a proper catcher. Essentially, Robinson was not in their plans, and they decided to unload him to fill a positional need. But it’s still puzzling, because the trade feels less like a step forward behind the plate and more like a step backward in outfield depth.

Eric Stephen, TrueBlueLA:

There is a decent enough chance Trayvon Robinson may never be a major league regular. But at the very least, Robinson could have been a cheap fourth outfielder for three to six years, which seems like more of an upside than the Dodgers received in return. To me this trade is an overreaction to fill a need, a need Colletti himself was largely responsible in creating. I’m not even confident that need was anywhere close to being filled. Which leaves me empty.

Jared Massey, LADodgerTalk:

At least it appears that Ned tried to address an area of need with Federowicz, given the fact that their catching depth is suspect. The problem is they didn’t need another glove first backstop with questions about his hitting. They have that guy in Matt Wallach. They also have the aforementioned Griff Erickson, who’s batting .275 thru 19 Double A games, is younger and has more potential at the plate. Add to that the three catchers drafted this past June and Tim becomes even less valuable.

The two pitchers profile as relievers, which is another area in which the Dodgers don’t need help. With the young hurlers in the majors, as well as guys like Steve Ames and Shawn Tolleson in Double A, Fife and Rodriguez don’t fill areas of need.

I suppose it’s nice to have depth, but you don’t trade the best hitting prospect in the organization for warm bodies. Unless Tray had incriminating photos of members of the front office, I really don’t get this deal.

Jimmy Bramlett, LAist:

So fine. The Dodgers got a catcher. The other source of confusion was the Dodgers receiving two pitchers who project to be back-end of the rotation guys at best in the deal.

“We’ve got a lot of pitching,” Colletti told reporters on Saturday explaining his evaluation of the Dodgers’ farm system.

“You’ll never turn down good pitching, but a lot of our emphasis is on position players.”

Evidently good pitching can be expanded to mean mediocre pitching.

With all of this double-speak, it is hard to determine the direction of the Dodgers. It seems they acknowledge and want to remedy their offensive holes, but all of the actions they undertake are contrary to that goal. Perhaps Colletti is thinking two or three moves ahead of everyone and will pull off a genius move.

But here’s is a sobering thought for everyone. With both Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp eligible for free agency in 2013, what happens in the very likely possibility the Dodgers cannot re-sign them?

Federowicz might be the catcher of the future for the Dodgers, but what good will it do if the only power sources for the Dodgers jump ship?

Bloggers from the other teams involved!

Jeff Sullivan, Lookout Landing:

But the Mariners just gained two good talents without really making any kind of significant sacrifice at all, and that’s the sign of a hell of a trade. It is impossible to be disappointed by this.

Jay Yencich, U.S.S. Mariner:

All-in-all, I’d say this is a win for the M’s, far better than what was initially coming down the wire, which was some backup catcher coming our way. I wouldn’t say either of these guys is a guy that I’m going to pencil in as the anything of the future, though Robinson has good odds on seeing some time down the road. For what may end up as a rental for the Red Sox (and whatever it is that Fields is), this is a pretty darned good return.

Marc Normandin, Over the Monster:

Most importantly, Federowicz, Fife, and Chiang were all going to be Rule 5 eligible this upcoming winter, so Boston was moving pieces it was planning to lose anyway in exchange for help now.

All in all, this was a good trade for Boston, as they didn’t give up anything they weren’t planning on losing in the short-term anyway, and they received a high-risk, high-reward hurler in Bedard. If Buchholz ends up missing significant time the rest of the year, and Bedard can stay on the mound, the Red Sox and their fans will be very happy about a rare July 31 deal that has a major impact.

Chip Buck, Fire Brand of the American League:

The good news for the Red Sox is that none of the prospects they traded away were highly touted. According to Sox Prospects, Federowicz was ranked #22; Chiang #23; Fife #32; and Rodriguez #44 in the Red Sox farm system. Essentially, they traded depth, rather than premium talent. All-in-all, I’m pretty psyched they were able to obtain a pitcher while holding onto Will Middlebrooks, Ryan Kalish, Josh Reddick, Anthony Ranaudo, Ryan Kalish, Kyle Weiland, and Felix Doubront. You should be as well.