Dodger Offense Bails Out Another Poor Billingsley Start
September 2, 2011 at 8:37 pm | Posted in Chad Billingsley | 37 Comments
I don’t usually include WPA (Win Percentage Added) charts from FanGraphs in these posts, but, yeah, tonight’s an exception:
You can chalk up the fact that the Braves were at something like a 95% chance of winning through three innings to Chad Billingsley, who continued his disconcerting second-half slide by allowing twelve baserunners and five runs (three earned, thanks to a Dee Gordon fielding error) while completing just four innings, getting yanked after letting Chipper Jones single to lead off the fifth. I would really like to see A.J. Ellis start the next time Billingsley goes; I hardly need to tell you that Catcher’s ERA is among the most useless stats around – yes, even worse than pitcher wins or RBI – yet the difference in Billingsley’s performance this year with Ellis back there as opposed to Rod Barajas or Dioner Navarro is striking. That’s not an excuse, of course; Billingsley has been lousy for over a month and it’s his responsibility to perform regardless who he’s pitching to. But if there is something there, it’s worth looking into.
Anyway, for an overwhelming majority of this season, the storyline on a night like this would be “starting pitcher gets hit, team rolls over with a whimper, nothing to see here.” But not the new Dodgers, who apparently hated Navarro even more than we did – this is their 9th win in ten games since he was cut (10 of 11 overall), scoring 71 times in the ten-game span. Tonight’s heroes in coming back from the 5-0 deficit were the same two who have been helping Matt Kemp carry the offense for a month, as Juan Rivera and James Loney combined to reach base five times and drive in six. Gordon also attempted to atone for the error by setting a career high with three hits and stealing two. Not to be forgotten is the bullpen, which came through with five innings spoiled only by Dan Uggla‘s solo homer against Javy Guerra in the 9th. The performance of the bullpen over the course of the season, coming back as it has from the decimating injuries, is a sorely overlooked bright spot of the year so far.
With the win, the Dodgers pull to 67-70, and a .500 season is now well within reach, though it’s too little too late for any sort of playoff run. It almost makes you wonder what could have been if the generally solid pitching had received any sort of similar support for the first four months of the season.
37 Comments »
RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI
Leave a Reply
How Many McCourt Sins?
MSTI on the web
MSTI Library
Blog at WordPress.com. | Theme: Pool by Borja Fernandez.
Entries and comments feeds.
An odd game notable for Kuo’s four pitch inning (his ERA now under 10) and Barajas accounting for all 3 outs in the 7th inning by strikeout to start and dp to end it
Comment by DAVID S— September 2, 2011 #
With the win, the Dodgers pull to 67-70, and a .500 season is now well within reach, though it’s too little too late for any sort of playoff run. It almost makes you wonder what could have been if the generally solid pitching had received any sort of similar support for the first four months of the season.
Yup. What he said.
Comment by StratCat— September 2, 2011 #
A big part of Billingsley’s problems was the strike zone the ump was giving him. He wouldn’t call the bottom THIRD of the zone, so Billingsley pitched up and got rocked. He pitched better than the box score for sure.
http://i229.photobucket.com/albums/ee76/solo8260/sighump3.jpg
http://i229.photobucket.com/albums/ee76/solo8260/sighump2.jpg
http://i229.photobucket.com/albums/ee76/solo8260/sighump1.jpg
Comment by Taylor Maricle— September 2, 2011 #
Taylor, your 1.jpg image is a Page Not Found.
Comment by The Dude Abides— September 2, 2011 #
Yep. Interesting stuff though, thanks for the links. That didn’t help, but I’m not sure it fully explains his struggles. I don’t think the umps are against him every time out.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— September 2, 2011 #
But it does explain his subsequent run of strikes down the middle of the plate after walking several batters.
Comment by Taylor Maricle— September 2, 2011 #
Sorry, it’s http://i229.photobucket.com/albums/ee76/solo8260/sighump.jpg
Instead of copying them all individually i just copied one three times and edited the link, forgot the first pic didn’t have a number
Comment by Taylor Maricle— September 2, 2011 #
Yeah, I think that Gonzalez at-bat was the one you and I were venting about over at TBLA. Pretty sure that all of those egregiously bad ball/strike calls happened in that third inning.
Comment by The Dude Abides— September 2, 2011 #
Everybody needs to know that the gameday locations are not to be trusted. I’ve watched a game while following along on gameday. Those are just estimates. Sometimes they are very bad estimates.
Comment by Bip— September 3, 2011 #
I would back up the Gameday locations in this case. The center field camera for last night’s game aligned perfectly with the pitching rubber and home plate. It wasn’t slightly offset as it is in most ballparks. Gameday depicted those pitches accurately, IMO.
Comment by The Dude Abides— September 3, 2011 #
Also notable as one of the few times this team has been able to spot anyone (never mind a quality team) a 5-spot and still come back to win
Comment by PJ— September 2, 2011 #
Bills didn’t look good. I do remember Ellis catching the majority of his good games earlier in the year, so you do have a point about that Mike.
he made way too many pitches. sometimes it seems like he nibbles too much. wheres that awesome four seamer he normally uses? normally he’s a power pitcher.
great job tonight by the offense. there really firing on all cylinders offensivley. and I’m loving the new Loney. actually they do have a slim outside shot at the division, but they would need a lot of help. the Giants beating Arizona would help. they would have to go something like 9-2 on this road trip, and Arizona would have to have a bad month of september for that to even happen, but you never know.
go blue
Comment by format— September 2, 2011 #
im kinda excited in seeing what else dee gordon and justin sellers could do in a full season if they got that chance
Comment by GP— September 2, 2011 #
Bills is slowing regressing..I wonder if the pressure of that new contract is getting to him?
Comment by Shane— September 2, 2011 #
ever since he had his “breakout season” in 2007 and was to supposed to be the “ace” of the staff in 2008, he hasn’t been the same
Comment by GP— September 2, 2011 #
According to FIP, xFIP, and SIERA, this year is still better than 2009.
And 2010 proved that he’s not dead.
Billingsley will be fine, the only problem is that he won’t perform at a 3.50 ERA level and get 3.00 ERA results again like in 2008.
Comment by Taylor Maricle— September 2, 2011 #
Bllingsley is not the same power pitcher he once was. His velocity hasn’t been above 93 this year while in previous years he was hitting 95 on the gun. Not a big difference but it could be the reason he has thrown more breaking balls and working his pitch count up.
Comment by Tyler— September 2, 2011 #
Average FB Velocity
2008: 91.5
2009: 91.8
2010: 91.5
2011: 91.5
’08, ’10, and ’11 have the EXACT same average velocity.
Comment by Taylor Maricle— September 2, 2011 #
Oh how i love Stats
Comment by DodgersKings323— September 3, 2011 #
Tyler didn’t say Billingley’s average velocity had gone down, he said his maximum velocity had.
Comment by a— September 3, 2011 #
that’s kinda reflected in the average. if his maximum went down then his minimum had to have gone up to keep the same average, and that would make zero sense.
Comment by sumdumfu— September 4, 2011 #
though it’s too little too late for any sort of playoff run. It almost makes you wonder what could have been if the generally solid pitching had received any sort of similar support for the first four months of the season.
Almost as ridiculous a comment as Jon Weisman saying that this was a meaningless game played on court #12.
Comment by Anthony Forkush— September 2, 2011 #
Yeah, I agree. Sometimes the winner of a match on Court 12 ends up winning the tournament, so last night’s game is way less relevant by comparison.
Comment by The Dude Abides— September 3, 2011 #
What the hell are you talking about, Anthony?
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— September 3, 2011 #
I don’t get it either, i don’t watch tennis…………………..
Comment by DodgersKings323— September 3, 2011 #
Not a tennis fan either, but matches on court 12 are between the weakest players and generally have little or no consequence.
Comment by john m— September 3, 2011 #
Comment by John Young— September 3, 2011 #
I agree with Kemp, playoffs here we come
Comment by Burton— September 3, 2011 #
Yes, it would be incredibly nice to reach .500 in this terrible season. But I am choosing to dream bigger. We are just 5.5 games back from winning the We Suck Less Than The Champs Pennant.
In a year in which the Giants traded their best prospect for Carlos Beltran, with a very real shot of getting to the Series again, they could possibly finish worse than the Dodgers. Long shot, yes. But still.
Of course I would rather watch my team in the playoffs, but laughing in the face of Giants fans would be a surprisingly adequate consolation. It’s all we got, and I’ll gladly take it. Just 5.5 games back!!
Comment by Real Tom— September 3, 2011 #
Let me jump on board that bandwagon.
Comment by DodgersKings323— September 3, 2011 #
Finishing ahead of the Gnats is not a long shot.
Comment by WBB— September 3, 2011 #
i’m with you!
Comment by brandon— September 3, 2011 #
If we can finish just a half a game ahead of the Giants after the season we’ve had, then I’ll be happy.
But you know what, why not hope for the playoffs? Who cares if it’s a lost cause or if we don’t deserve to be there or that we’ll get eliminated faster than it takes Eugenio Velez to ground out to second, I’m thinking big, baby!
Comment by Clay— September 3, 2011 #
I want to create “We Suck Less Than The Champs” T-Shirts. The picture on the back would be Carlos Beltran clutching his injured wrist.
Comment by Real Tom— September 3, 2011 #
I would buy
Comment by Tyler— September 3, 2011 #
haha I approve of the above. all is right in the universe as long as the dodgers are better than the giants.
Comment by sumdumfu— September 3, 2011 #
4.5 games back, in the only race that matters.
Comment by Real Tom— September 4, 2011 #