Dee Gordon Makes His Case
September 8, 2011 at 7:12 pm | Posted in Dee Gordon, Kenley Jansen | 47 Comments
When Dee Gordon was recalled in June, most of us were torn between “wow, Dee Gordon! This will be exciting!” and “this is far too soon, right?” In 30 games (26 starts) over the next two months sandwiched around a demotion and an injury , Gordon didn’t do much to change that impression, hitting just .234/.248/.270, yet providing a season’s worth of highlight-reel plays.
When Gordon returned on September 1 in the Pittsburgh makeup game, he had two hits, including a double. He had three the next day in Atlanta, a double the next night despite not getting into the game until the eighth inning, and three more in the final game against the Braves. After an ugly 0-5 on Monday in Washington, Gordon had three more hits on Tuesday – including a double against Stephen Strasburg that almost no one else in baseball could have stretched to two – and then a career-high four on Thursday afternoon. Since his return from the disabled list, Gordon is 16-31 with four doubles, and showing the usual combo of fantastic plays and botched easy plays on defense.
It’s not all gravy, of course; Gordon has drawn just two walks in 145 plate appearances. (Sidebar: let’s assume Gordon gets something like 200 plate appearances this season; only seven players since MLB integrated had that many PA without drawing more than two unintentional walks.) It’s pretty hard to have an acceptable slash line when you’re not drawing any walks, and his BABIP of 8.123 (may be slightly exaggerated) over that span isn’t likely to keep up.
All of which is a long way of saying that A) Gordon’s success has been really fun to watch this week, B) clearly he’s not going to keep it up, and C) most importantly, I think that as long as he stays healthy, there’s little chance the Dodgers won’t hand him the fulltime shortstop job headed into 2012. Why wouldn’t they? They’re not going to play Justin Sellers every day, and they already have at least two – possibly three – infield question marks.
On Twitter, realizing this, I offhandedly said, with little thought or research, to Eric Stephen of TrueBlueLA that given 500 plate appearances in 2012, Gordon’s line might look something like .275/.310/.340 with 38 steals and 31 errors. In retrospect, the steals might be too low, but considering that I saw replies from people both calling me far too optimistic and insisting he’d hit .300, I think that’s about in the sweet spot. Too high? Too low? Let’s hear your guesses.
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Kenley Jansen, since returning from shoulder inflammation on June 18: 40 strikeouts, 10 walks, one earned run allowed, and five hits allowed (all singles) in 86 batters faced. Uh, yes please. The lack of attention he’s receiving is bordering on criminal.
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Have fun this weekend, particularly with Clayton Kershaw looking to continue his run of domination against the Giants on Friday. (Remember what happened when he faced them in May? We bagged on Don Mattingly for choosing Juan Castro over Jerry Sands, Russ Mitchell, and Tony Gwynn to pinch-hit for Kershaw with the bases loaded, thus leading to Lance Cormier being asked to blow a tie game. Which he did. Ahhh, good times.) I’m off on a boat to an island. Chew on that for a while. See you Monday.
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By tomorrow night, Lincecum could be a sub-.500 pitcher.
Comment by WBB— September 8, 2011 #
Mike, I think you’re forgetting that the last time he faced the Giants, he went 8 scoreless and K’d 12 in a winning effort.
Comment by Paul— September 8, 2011 #
Yeah, I don’t know why I said “the last time”, it wasn’t what I meant.
Comment by Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— September 8, 2011 #
Any guesses for the lines Ellis and Sands could post, if playing every day?
Comment by Eugenio Velez— September 8, 2011 #
I don’t know, but who would have guessed that they would both have the same number of HR this year, with Sands having twice as many AB to get there?
Comment by nsxtasy— September 9, 2011 #
Ellis: .270/.365/.350
Sands: .255/.330/.480
Just guesses. Also, I’d expect Ellis to start about 70 games, with Barajas resigning and starting most of the rest.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— September 9, 2011 #
.480 slugging is a little optimistic I think. On the other hand, I think he could exceed .330 OBP considering how well he can take a walk. When he was batting only .200 he still had an OBP around .300, so I think .250/.350/.390 is a reasonable thing to expect.
Comment by Bip— September 9, 2011 #
or me?
Comment by Eugenio Velez— September 8, 2011 #
Mike – the fact that you and Eric are tweeting and posting on identical subjects the past few days is downright eerie.
Comment by The Dude Abides— September 8, 2011 #
Now that Ethier is out, why not continue moving down the line and bring in Alex Castellanos? Maybe get a chance to see if the Double-A outfielder can hit a 95mph fastball? Not like he’s playing ball right now anyways, right?
Comment by SFDodgerFan— September 8, 2011 #
He is playing, in the Southern league playoffs.
Comment by WBB— September 8, 2011 #
Ok now I feel like a know-nothing jerk. But lets see what he can do after all that eh? My bad on the ignorance piece…
Comment by SFDodgerFan— September 8, 2011 #
Their current outfield of Gwynn, Rivera, Oeltjen, and Sands are all possibilities for 2012. So there is no obvious place for Castellanos. Which player’s spot would he be taking? Sands? Not bloody likely.
Comment by Table— September 8, 2011 #
Did you know that Castellanos started out playing 2B/3B, and was converted to the outfield? Just sayin’.
It seems like our system is overflowing with outfielders. In addition to these, and aside from Hoffmann and Gibbons, there’s Silverio, Van Slyke, Cavazos-Galvez, Songco…
Comment by nsxtasy— September 9, 2011 #
I don’t think Oeltjen is a possibility as more than a 4th outfielder next year.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— September 9, 2011 #
Maybe Castellanos was a bad infielder.
Comment by WBB— September 9, 2011 #
I would like to think so Dave, it’s just that all he does is pinch hit. Even during the double header he failed to get a start.
Comment by Table— September 9, 2011 #
It really comes down to their being three outfield spots to be had alongside Kemp/Ethier. With 5 candidates.
Lefties
Gwynn
Oeltjen
Righties
Rivera
Sands
Hoffman
Of the group Rivera is the only free agent, and by that token would be the highest paid. If the Dodgers think Sands is ready, he would take Rivera’s spot. That’s why the Dodgers want to play Sands everyday this September.
I think Hoffman’s defense could make him as good a right handed option as Rivera/Sands, but the Dodgers seem to disagree, as he has not been called up to the big club. He’s going to be out of options next year, so unless he makes the team out of spring training as the 5th outfielder over Oeltjen, his time in the Dodger org figures to be at an end.
The Dodgers are clearly a fan of Gwynn’s defense, as he has received the bulk of the leftfield playing time this year. His return in 2012 would appear to be a no brainer, he is arb eligible, but he won’t be expensive.
The lack of production out of left has been overrated this year. Combining Gwynn and Rivera’s WAR of a full season of playing time you end up with over 3. That’s better than Ethier. Overall the Dodger outfield has combined for 10.8 war which is as high as the 06 and 08 playoff teams and just short of the 12.4 of 09, though with a month to go. It’s also a huge improvement over the 2010 squad, whose terrible OF production sank the team with its 2.3 WAR…2.3!!!
As much as Mike liked to make fun of JaMarcus Gwybbons Jr allot, but Jonny Grivera Jr has been pretty good. The Dodgers 2011 has been a failure due to the infield. The great 2009 infield that had Martin, Loney, Hudson, Blake, and Furcal combine for 17.3 WAR is gone. So far this year the infield has combined for 6.3 WAR. It’s not going to be easy to pick up the pieces.
Comment by Table— September 8, 2011 #
One of those guys (maybe Sands, maybe Rivera) could be our starting first baseman, so there’s another slot available for them.
Don’t rule out Van Slyke, either…
Comment by nsxtasy— September 9, 2011 #
I really hope Rivera is not the best the Dodgers can do at first base
Comment by Table— September 9, 2011 #
As long as the team is in dire financial straits, there’s a difference between “can do” (Pujols, Fielder) and “will do” (Rivera, Sands).
Comment by nsxtasy— September 9, 2011 #
Please not Van Slyke.
Comment by SFDodgerFan— September 9, 2011 #
Signing Carlos Pena or Derek Lee, or trading for Yonder Alonso would be preferable.
Comment by Table— September 9, 2011 #
Unless Van Slyke comes up this year to play I don’t see any way he breaks in for 2012 until far later in the year.
I honestly think Loney is going to play himself into a contract for one more year at least.
Comment by Jon#7#22— September 9, 2011 #
Hey Miguel Tejada & Aaron Rowand are in the process of being released from the Giants. As Giants I know they are good players. We need an infielder and left fielder for next year. I like their experience and the professionalism they could bring to this ball club.
Comment by Ned Colletti— September 9, 2011 #
You are my favorite GM that posts on this site.
Comment by SV Narine— September 9, 2011 #
That is the funniest thing I’ve read in the last 10 minutes. Ned, thank you for all you’ve not done for us! Go Dodgers!
Comment by John Tiner (@RawhideBlue)— September 9, 2011 #
I’m afraid Gordon’s line is going to be closer to 245/295/350. His steals could be double his walks in a full season. I still feel that he needs another year in AAA to improve his glove and get stronger.
Comment by west coast ram— September 9, 2011 #
I don’t think Gordon is an .100 ISO player. If Gordon is batting .245 with his current skill set, then that is going to result in a very ugly OPS.
Comment by Bip— September 9, 2011 #
lots of triples?
Comment by Jon#7#22— September 9, 2011 #
“I’m off on a boat to an island. Chew on that for a while. See you Monday.”
Have fun on Staten Island!
Comment by bobtimmermann— September 9, 2011 #
Dee’s lack of OBP skills are the only thing that is making me apprehensive about giving him a full time job. He’s basically Juan Pierre that plays a premium position (premature labeling I know). I hope the staff works with him over the off season to control the strike zone better and get on base at a higher clip.
Comment by SV Narine— September 9, 2011 #
I think a full time job is acceptable, as long as he’s not batting leadoff without improving his OBP.
Comment by Bip— September 9, 2011 #
Juan PIerre was actually damn good for a while. He hit over .300 5 times, and has scored over 96 runs 6 times. I am fine with Gordon doing that for the Dodgers – just don’t pay him $10 million a year to do it.
Comment by Rory— September 10, 2011 #
>> Gordon’s line might look something like .275/.310/.340 with 38 steals and 31 errors.
.
Just for comparison…
.
Gordon OPS 2011 .658
Sellers OPS 2011 .638
Median OPS for MLB SS 2011 .704
Median OPS for MLB 2B 2011 .704
Comment by nsxtasy— September 9, 2011 #
Mike, regarding Dee, I have to think until he can prove he can hit any pitcher, he is going to get fed strikes and likely his walk total will be low. The minute the league figures out he can hit – still early on that estimation – he will see more pitches off of the plate to judge whether he has an eye or not. If he can get to that point and not be Aaron Miles or Rod Barajas, I will be happy. As for the errors, I am of the opinion his defense will be better than most shortstops in the league, but we will have to deal with his making errors on “easy” plays for a few years.
Comment by grabarkewitz— September 9, 2011 #
from MLB Trade Runors….
“Miguel Tejada Plans To Play In 2012
By Ben Nicholson-Smith [September 9 at 3:40pm CST]”
Of course he is planning to play. Uncle Ned is probably printing out the invitation to spring training and a sweetheart contract right now.
Tejada could probably outhit Uribe and Velez and it might not be too bad if it meant he was replacing one or both, but more than likely, Ned might go with all three. At least Ned did not try to trade for him before the July 31st deadline – he might have given up Sellers and Guerra to get Tejada
Comment by Kirk Davenport— September 9, 2011 #
I am glad you agree with me. As I stated earlier I also have interest in Aaron Rowand for left field truely a good player to mentor our younger players.
Comment by Ned Colletti— September 9, 2011 #
Forget Tejada. Juan Castro could outhit Eugenio Velez. Ted Lilly could outhit Eugenio Velez. Maury Wills could outhit Eugenio Velez, and he turns 79 next month.
BTW, with the line Mike suggested for Gordon, I’d expect 50-60 steals out of his 150 plus times on base.
Comment by NickM— September 10, 2011 #
i was just kickout for the first time at a@tt park. and it was first time. some old man out his hands old me said he had enough
Comment by jaydavis— September 9, 2011 #
from the way you’re typing I’m guessing you were hammered.
Comment by Brandon— September 9, 2011 #
LMAO! Clearly.
Comment by Justin— September 10, 2011 #
From your above story: “his BABIP of 8.123 (may be slightly exaggerated)”
this figure is more than slightly exaggerated
Comment by a— September 9, 2011 #
That sarcasm was more than slightly missed.
Comment by Bip— September 10, 2011 #
I would like to see Dee as an outfielder believe it or not. Slide Kemp over to left and utilize Dee’s speed. When he finds his niche in the league, he will become a leading base stealer.
Comment by FromThisSeat.com— September 10, 2011 #
Does anyone know the Dodgers’ pitching schedule for the next week? I want to take my cousin and go when Kershaw pitches
Comment by crowemeister— September 11, 2011 #
[...] the next day. After an 0-5 on September 6, he picked up seven more hits over his next two games, on his way to a .372/.398/.451 September (buoyed by an unsustainable .404 BABIP) that pushed his season average over [...]
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