The MSTI 15-Step Plan for 2012
October 31, 2011 at 9:00 am | Posted in Erik Bedard, Jamey Carroll, Javy Guerra, Logan Morrison, Pedro Baez, Prince Fielder, Rich Harden, Vicente Padilla, Wilson Betemit | 103 CommentsIt’s time for another edition of the yearly plan, in which I put on my GM hat and try to piece together a competitive 2012 club using realistic payroll and player restrictions. Before we start, I have to be honest: this was so much harder to do than it’s ever been. In previous years, I’ve looked forward to putting on the GM hat and thinking up interesting and realistic ideas to improve the next year’s team, but doing it this time was a struggle. Though the uncertain budget thanks to the McCourt mess is part of it, an even bigger problem is that there’s just not much out there. The free agent list is sparse, and while there’s values to be had in the trade market, the Dodgers have little of interest that they can move without opening up a new hole.
I thought about all kinds of possibilities. Perhaps the #5 starter hole could be filled by buying low (extremely low) on previously-successful veterans who have fallen out of favor and would be heavily subsidized, like Derek Lowe or John Lackey (before it was announced he’d miss 2012). Maybe there was some way to get the Red Sox to give up Jed Lowrie or Will Middlebrooks to help stabilize second or third base. Perhaps a package including Chad Billingsley could be sent to Kansas City for Alex Gordon, though the Royals are unlikely to be interested in such a deal and that would just open up another rotation hole anyway. Maybe 2005 Jeff Kent could rise from the dead and return to the Dodgers, because the second base market is a total mess. Is it worth believing that Aaron Hill or Kelly Johnson can come back from down years to reclaim past glory at the keystone? Or maybe you could go cheap elsewhere and pray that Aramis Ramirez, nearing his mid-30s, is worth the ~$40m he’s likely to get to play third base?
In the end, little of it made sense, at least in any way that would be realistic for the other team, because I like to think this blog isn’t the home of “I’ll trade you Mike MacDougal for Ian Kinsler!” type solutions. The Dodgers are boxed in by criminal ownership, too much dead money owed to long-departed players, ballooning payments to poor investments like Juan Uribe & Matt Guerrier, and outside alternatives that are less than ideal. Perhaps Ned Colletti wasn’t that far off when he suggested that he was generally okay with the current roster, because he had done this work already and knew that there was unlikely to be much movement.
Then again, perhaps he’s just not being creative.
******
The first question, of course, is how much do the Dodgers have to spend on payroll in 2012? It’s a question that’s almost impossible to answer right now, a problem Colletti has as much admitted to. In 2011, they spent about $98m on players, plus about $17m in “dead” money, for a total of ~$115m. Without revealing how much, this Tony Jackson interview with Ned Colletti claims that “all indications are it will be higher than the roughly $98 million it was this year.” Let’s guess that means an extra $5m, so that’ll put us to a $120m cap including the dead money. I’ve seen the arguments that the longer the ownership dispute drags on, the more likely it is that the payroll decreases by tens of millions of dollars, but I’m not buying it; it’s in no one’s best interest for the value of the Dodgers to go down any further than it already has, and MLB has been consistent about claiming it will be “business as usual” for the Dodgers this winter – whatever that means.
Of course, that doesn’t really mean there’s $120m available to spend. The Dodgers still have about $21m in deferred money committed to the dearly departed, including Manny Ramirez ($8m), Juan Pierre ($3m), Andruw Jones ($3.375m), Rafael Furcal ($3m), and Hiroki Kuroda ($2m), and also including the already-exercised buyouts of Casey Blake ($1.25m) and Jon Garland ($1.5m). So that $120m figure is already down to $99m.
Dead money: $120m – $21m = $99m
Then there’s the money already committed to members of the 2012 club, and here’s where the back-loaded contracts of Juan Uribe ($8m) & Matt Guerrier ($4.75m) really come back to bite us in the ass, making them look even more brutal than the day they were signed. While Ted Lilly at least finished 2011 strong, his salary increases from $7.5m to $12m in 2012, a whole more than I really want to pay him. That, plus the $9m owed to Chad Billingsley, eats up $33.7m of the $99m, leaving us with $65.3m to play with.
Committed money: $99m – $33.7m = $65.3m
But we’re not done yet, because several key members of the core are without contracts yet under team control in 2012. It’s sometimes difficult to guess what will come out of arbitration hearings, so for now we’ll go with Eric Stephen of TrueBlueLA‘s guesses that Clayton Kershaw will get $8m, Andre Ethier will get $12m, and Matt Kemp will get $13m. (The TBLA payroll sheet is an invaluable resource not just for this piece, but all year long.) I hate the idea of giving Ethier that much, but now, when his value is at a low, is no time to trade him. We’ll see about changing those numbers later, and there are definitely other arbitration decisions to be made, but the $33m we just said goodbye to means that with just seven spots on the roster set, we’ve already got $87.7m spoken for, leaving $32.3m to fill out 18 other spots. See how quickly $100m can go?
Arbitration money: $65.3m – $33m = $32.3m
Finally, let’s dedicate about $3m in minimum salary contracts to team-controlled 0-3 players who are almost certain to be on the roster next year – A.J. Ellis, Dee Gordon, Jerry Sands, Javy Guerra, Kenley Jansen, Josh Lindblom, Blake Hawksworth and Scott Elbert. Now we have fifteen spots at a cost of $90.9m, leaving us with $29.3m.
Controlled money: $32.3m – $3m = $29.3m
$29.3m, ten holes. What do you do? Here’s one man’s blueprint…
******
1) Sign OF Matt Kemp to a long-term deal.
This should be obvious and in no way arguable. It’s the absolute #1 priority of the winter, no matter what else happens. You can argue how much and over how many years – that’s a conversation for another time - but don’t forget that he’s still under team control for 2012, so the Dodgers retain some leverage. We’ll assume that whatever deal he gets is somewhat backloaded and settle on $12m for next year, more than he made in 2011 but less than he’d probably get in arbitration, which should be fine considering he’ll have the security of a long-term deal.
$29.3m +$1m = $30.3m (since I already accounted for him as $13m above)
2) Sign 1B Prince Fielder to a six-year, $140m deal.
I went back and forth on this one – a lot. I even wrote about the likelihood of Fielder or Albert Pujols arriving a few weeks ago and concluded that it was neither likely or advisable, simply because I don’t like the idea of tying up so much money into one player, especially when that’s going to need to happen for Kemp and Kershaw as well. Even just theoretically talking about it makes me a bit uncomfortable, because it’s so risky. If you want to make the argument that this money is best spent elsewhere, I’m more than open to it.
In the end, I settled on going for it in this exercise because the other options were simply so unattractive. Believe me, I had a whole lot of iterations of this article where I was trying to believe in James Loney and then working on other ways to upgrade. Since it’s hard to see any way to improve at 2B or 3B, your hopes for the infield were to either have to count on Loney to repeat the last six weeks of his season after four years of mediocrity, or overpay for a veteran like Derrek Lee or Lyle Overbay who is unlikely to be much better. There’s a big argument to be made that one year of Loney at $6m is a steal if he hits like he did to finish the season; there’s an even bigger argument to be made that if he doesn’t, you’re once again saddled with an infield that has almost no power whatsoever. If you’re going to try to contend in 2012, and I would argue that having Kemp & Kershaw means you are, then you need to make a move – in addition to the desperately needed positive PR that such a signing would bring.
Besides, it’s the perfect time to go after a Fielder because the traditional big spenders likely won’t be around to drive up the price. The Yankees and Red Sox are each heavily invested at first base and have bigger needs, especially in pitching. The Phillies are about to start a (hilarious) $125m extension with Ryan Howard; even though he’s hurt, their replacement there would be short-term, and the Cardinals will likely just retain Pujols. The Angels probably won’t jump in considering they already have both Mark Trumbo and Kendrys Morales on hand; the Rangers could be a fit but probably need to focus on pitching. You could definitely see the Cubs being interested, though it’s hard to know what their winter of transition will bring; the Braves definitely need a bat but seem happy with Freddie Freeman at first base. The best possibilities are probably Washington and Baltimore, but the Nats already have Michael Morse and Adam LaRoche under contract for first base and have been burned by the first year of Jayson Werth‘s massive deal; the O’s don’t even have a GM yet and probably have bigger concerns than first base. That’s not to say that Prince won’t get paid, because he will, just that it’s not likely to be the $200m+ figure I’ve seen thrown around.
In addition, Fielder’s relative youth (he’ll still be just 27 on Opening Day of 2012) means that the back-end of a six-year deal would be his age 32-33 seasons, not 35-36. That’s still young enough that you’ll be purchasing most of his prime, not most of his decline, and that’s a big deal considering the concerns about his body type. While I’m admittedly loathe to give up first round picks for free agents, Fielder at least has the potential to be the kind of franchise changer that could make it worth it (and yes, I’m looking at you, Orlando Hudson). Whether the 6/$140m is close or not – I really just made it up without an overwhelming amount of research, so it could be something like 7/$160m instead - it’ll clearly be backloaded, so we’ll start with $13.5m in 2012 as we wait a year or two for other obligations and the ownership crisis to clear. While there’s certainly a very good argument to be made that adding another huge long-term contract to a team that will need to pay Kemp and Kershaw is dangerous, there’s a lot of money coming off the books after 2013, when Lilly, Uribe, and Guerrier (combining to make about ~$25m that year) all figure to be gone, in addition to being free of further payments to Manny. That’s on top of the money you get back assuming that Ethier is no longer with the team after 2012.
$30.3m - $13.5m = $16.8m
3) Trade RP Javy Guerra, SP Chris Withrow, and 2B Ivan DeJesus to Florida for LF/1B Logan Morrison.
This is another one I went back and forth on a lot, initially considering Morrison for first base rather than left field. Then, after getting Fielder, I figured, what the hell – why not try for both? Morrison’s spat with Marlins management is well-known, leading to a brief demotion this summer, and with reports that ownership is ready to take more control over player decisions, it’s not hard to see them wanting to be rid of the outspoken Twitter hero as soon as they can. That makes him an appealing buy-low target, since as he enters his age-24 season, he’s coming off a 2010 in which he had a .390 OBP and a 2011 in which he hit 23 homers. (The obvious comeback there is, “well, he hasn’t done both at the same time, since he hit just 2 homers in 2010 and had a .330 OBP in 2011.” Both true, however his age and his minor league track record suggest otherwise, especially considering that much of his power loss in 2010 can be put on a broken wrist, an injury notorious for sapping power for at least a year, and his 2011 BABIP was quite low before ending the year with a fantastic September.)
Of course, “buy low” does not mean “trade garbage or expensive contracts to Florida”, because he’s low-priced and productive, and so that’s why I’m taking the possibly unpopular route of trading last season’s surprise rookie closer, Guerra. It’s not that I don’t like Guerra, because he was an out of nowhere success story, but if you’re making a trade, you need to deal from depth – and nowhere do the Dodgers have more depth than in young, righty relievers. Besides, Guerra’s high on my list for regression in 2012; his .261 BABIP was on the low side this year, his 4.07 xFIP was a lot less impressive than his 2.31 ERA, and his minor league history doesn’t shout superstar. That’s not to say that he can’t succeed or that I’m desperate to be rid of him, because that’s not true – just that saves are almost always overrated in the marketplace and it might be the best use of Guerra’s value to trade him at the peak of his perceived attractiveness, especially when the Dodgers have Kenley Jansen able to step in and several other young relievers ready to come up.
On the Florida side, they have a big hole in the bullpen thanks to the identity fraud scandal of Leo Nunez (or Juan Carlos Oviedo, Armen Tanzarian, Theodore Donald Karabotsos, or whatever he’s calling himself these days), and the Fish have never been big players in the market, so five more cost-controlled years of Guerra should be appealing. They also get a lottery ticket in Withrow, showing signs of life with 9.1 K/9 in AA last year, though still struggling with his control, and DeJesus, who seems to have little future in Los Angeles but shouldn’t be written off completely since he’s still only 24 and shows good on-base skills in the minors. (As always, the prospects could be replaced by anyone of similar value – it doesn’t have to be exactly these guys – but you get the idea. If they prefer Brian Cavazos-Galvez or Ethan Martin or Kyle Russell or someone instead, fine.)
$16.8m – $0m = $16.8m (Morrison would take Guerra’s 0-3 slot for a similar salary)
4) Don’t try to trade Andre Ethier – at least not now.
Believe me, there’s plenty of good reasons to move Ethier. He’s a bit overrated. He’s cranky. He’s coming off surgery. He can’t hit lefties. He’s not a great defender. When he’s a free agent after 2012, he’s a lower priority than Kemp and Kershaw, and not someone I want to sign to an expensive long-term deal as he enters his decline phase. I totally agree with all of this. However, now’s not the right time to do it. For all of those reasons plus the ~$12m cost for one year before losing him to free agency, I really don’t think the return is out there that we’d want. Even if teams would take the one year of Ethier for that price with all of the issues, it’s unlikely that anyone would give a top prospect in return.
Besides, I expect big things from Ethier in 2012. He’ll be healthy for the first time in a while, and headed into a contract year he should be especially motivated – and Ethier is exactly the type of “chip on my shoulder” player who really responds to that sort of thing. If he’s playing well and the Dodgers are out of it in July, you might be able to get a good prospect in return then (like the Mets getting Zack Wheeler for Carlos Beltran). If the Dodgers are still in it, you ride it out, try to win, and then collect two draft picks when he leaves.
$16.8m – $0m = $16.8m
5) Sign 3B/UT Wilson Betemit to a one-year, $1.5m deal.
Unfortunately, Uribe is going to be the starting third baseman in 2012. There’s just no way around it. Even if we didn’t have Fielder eating up a huge part of the hypothetical payroll, third base is just a black hole on the market, unless you want to overpay Ramirez or risk a ton of prospects on David Wright. Since Uribe’s going to get paid, he’s going to be the man, but you also can’t risk not having an alternative in case he repeats his 2011.
That’s a tough spot to fill. No one who thinks he’s a full-time starter is going to come to LA for a small contract and the possibility of riding the bench, but most of the available bench types are like Aaron Miles, stopgaps who provide little value. That brings us to Betemit, who I advocated acquiring in the 2011 plan. All he ended up doing was hit .285/.343/.452 for Kansas City and Detroit, albeit with subpar defense. But that’s kind of a perfect fit, isn’t it? Uribe may or may not be able to hit, but even in his lost 2011 he was a solid defender, and Betemit provides the yin to that yang. Besides, the switch-hitting Betemit has a massive platoon split (vs RHP, .865 OPS in 2011, .817 career; vs LHP, .607 OPS in 2011, .684 career) which makes him an intriguing bench piece and/or part-time replacement for Uribe. In emergencies, he can play first and second as well, nice flexibility even if it’s hopefully not needed. Betemit made $1m last year, so let’s give him a slight raise. (An alternative here is Eric Chavez, who I liked last season, if he chooses to play in 2012.)
$16.8m – $1.5m = $15.3m
6) Bring back C Rod Barajas on a one-year, $1.5m deal.
Let’s start with this: you absolutely cannot enter the season with A.J. Ellis & Tim Federowicz as your backstop duo, no matter what Ned Colletti says. Federowicz isn’t ready now (if he will be at all) and needs to play regularly at AAA. Even if you’re a bigger fan of him than I am, you still can’t get by with only two catchers who have combined for less than a full season of MLB play.
Now, I thought about Ramon Hernandez here, though I eventually decided against him because he’s a Type A free agent and may get a two-year deal. I thought about Ryan Doumit to add some switch-hitting pop, but was turned off by his atrocious defense and possible salary demands since he made over $6m last year. In the end, there’s no available difference maker who is really likely to matter, so even though I don’t really want to, we’ll take advantage of Barajas’ stated preference to remain a Dodger and let him do so at a discounted rate. It’s not sexy, and he’s not all that good, but he’s at least got power and the state of catching is so poor that a Barajas/Ellis duo could actually be slightly above average. On this team, Ellis starts 4-5 days a week, not Barajas.
$15.3m – $1.5m = $13.8m
7) Bring back 2B Jamey Carroll for two years and $4m.
This actually scares the hell out of me, and I don’t really like doing it, much as I like Carroll. He’s got absolutely zero power and he’ll be 38 in February; to be honest, I hate everything about this. That said, the second base market is absolutely god awful. My version of the Dodgers can neither afford nor count on Hill or Johnson, and Carroll at least offers on-base skills and decent enough defense. Along with Sellers, he’s also a fallback position in case Gordon flails or is injured; I don’t want to give Carroll two years, yet that’s probably what the market will demand. Ideally, he could get through one more year as a solid OBP guy, and then a better 2B option emerges for 2013, allowing Carroll to spend the second year as the utility guy he really ought to be.
$13.8m – $2m = $11.8m
8) Hedge your bets with Jerry Sands.
You’ve probably noticed that I’ve acquired a first baseman and a left fielder, which doesn’t leave a spot for Sands, who finished 2011 so well. In reality, when the Dodgers don’t get a player at either position, I’m more than fine with Sands getting first crack at left field. That said, he’s not enough of a slam-dunk prospect that you simply hand him the job with no backup plan better than a Tony Gwynn, so in this scenario he’ll be able to get playing time in both outfield corners, since Morrison and Ethier are both lefties (even moreso if Morrison is needed to fill in at first base from time to time), and as the main bat off the bench. If he continues to prove himself worthy, you let him step in for Ethier in right field when Andre is traded in July or moves on after 2012. Or, if that makes you uncomfortable, you let him play every day in AAA until injuries pile up.
$11.8m – $0m = $11.8m
9) Round out the bench with minimum-salary deals for IF Justin Sellers and OF Jamie Hoffmann.
Here’s where the big deal for Fielder bites you a little bit, because you no longer have the flexibility to carry much more than minimum salary types on the bottom of the roster. I would really have liked to have gone out and found some intriguing buy-low types like David DeJesus here; unfortunately, it’s just not feasible now. I’ve been pessimistic of Sellers’ ability to hit at the big league level, but he has a solid glove at both middle infield positions, and entering his age-26 season, he’s not enough of a prospect to worry about needing to play every day. Hoffmann is someone I’d like to do better than, yet he’ll be useful because this roster would desperately need a plus defender, and I’d prefer Hoffmann over Gwynn because he hits righty, which is preferable when you’ve got two starting lefty corner outfielders.
$11.8m – $0.8m = $11m
10) Bring back SP Hiroki Kuroda for one year and $9m ($2m deferred).
This is a bit risky, because Kuroda will be 37 years old in February and was slowed by neck pain for the last few weeks of the season. But he’s also coming off the best year of his career, and the Dodgers have a special gift here in that he’s almost certain to favor them over any other team (assuming he chooses to come back, of course). There’s also no one on the market likely to give the type of production we’ve seen from Kuroda for just a one-year deal, either, so if he’s willing to return, we should be happy to have him for one more season.
$11m – $7m = $4m
11) Sign SP Erik Bedard to a one-year, $2m deal, with the opportunity to add a good deal of incentives.
Bedard is almost never healthy for a full season (missed 2010, hasn’t thrown more than 129 innings since 2007), yet is almost always effective when he is. We saw that again this year, where he missed 45 days with two separate injuries (both to his knee, rather than his arm) but put up a 3.62 ERA that was matched by the advanced stats and a 125/48 K/BB for Seattle and Boston, making $1m while doing so.
As he reaches his age-33 season, and with his history, it’s unlikely that anyone is offering him big guaranteed money this winter, so he could be available for a low base price plus incentives. (It’s also possible that I’m completely low-balling this.)
If we accept the fact that he absolutely will miss some time and don’t get disappointent when it happens, I’d rather spend $2m guaranteed to get ~15 good starts from him and ~10 starts from fill-ins rather than ~30 mediocre starts from the 6th-8th starters.
$4m – $2m = $2m
12) Sign SP Rich Harden to a one-year, $1m deal.
I can hear the hesitation now. “Harden is constantly hurt, to the point where a proposed deal that would have sent him to Boston this summer fell apart over concerns about his medicals. He threw just 174.2 innings over the last two seasons combined, and his ERAs the last two years have been 5.58 and 5.12. Why in the hell would you want him?”
Well, I always like a lottery ticket, and as Harden enters his age-30 season, he seems like a perfect candidate to fill the relief ace/spot starter role that Vicente Padilla was supposed to have in 2011. Despite Harden’s ugly ERA last year, his xFIP was merely 3.68, with a 91/31 K/BB in 82.2 innings. His home run rate is admittedly troubling, but hey, we’re talking about a guy on a $1m deal here. If Bedard & Harden can combine for 25-30 decent starts for $3m plus incentives at the back of your rotation, that’s value even if they combine for 100 days on the disabled list. And if they both blow up? Well, at least you took the chance on talent over assured mediocrity, and it’s only $3m.
$2m – $1m = $1m
13) Buy a coach-class ticket to non-tender city for Loney and Hong-Chih Kuo.
Loney made this a pretty tough call with his hot end to 2011, and let me say that in the real world, the one in which the Dodgers aren’t really going to get Prince Fielder, I think he’s going to be tendered a contract to give him one more chance to prove his worth. Though I’d be positive that he’d succeed if he landed somewhere else, there’s no room for a $6m pinch-hitter on this club. (Obviously, trading him would be preferable to non-tendering, though I’m not sure any other club is taking that $6m gamble either.)
Kuo is the longest-tenured Dodger and I’d hate to see him go, but his 2011 struggles, long injury history, and yet another elbow surgery last week mean that risking a raise on his $2.73m salary in arbitration is foolish. If he does want to play and doesn’t want to risk turning his arm over to a new training staff who doesn’t know him well, he might be willing to come back on a reduced contract; you could argue that he should get Harden’s $1m allotted above, or you might even get lucky and get him back on a non-guaranteed deal.
14) Say goodbye to 2011 free agents Juan Rivera, Casey Blake, Tony Gwynn, Jay Gibbons, Aaron Miles, Eugenio Velez, Jon Garland, Dana Eveland, Vicente Padilla, Mike MacDougal, and Jonathan Broxton.
Let’s caveat that by saying that if you can get any of these guys back (except Velez, who should be extradited from the country) on a minor-league deal to fight for a job in camp, then by all means do so – particularly Padilla, who has always been surprisingly effective as a Dodger when healthy. I’m guessing that’s unlikely to happen for most of them, who will merit at least a small major-league deal. In reality, I expect that Rivera, MacDougal, and Miles will all return, but there’s just no room for them on my hypothetical team.
15) Turn Pedro Baez into a pitcher. Come on already.
Yeah, I said this last season too, arguing that Baez’ rocket arm wasn’t going to be enough to get him to the bigs as a third baseman, especially considering that despite being old for the competition in the offensively-oriented California League, he managed just a .306 OBP and six homers in 2010. So what did he do this year to follow it up? He played in just 32 AA games, hitting .210/.278/.381, and missed the entire season after May with an injury. (Which, to be honest, I have not been able to identify.) I’m not saying it’s any sort of guarantee that such a conversion works out like it did for Jansen, but it basically is a guarantee that Baez never becomes a big leaguer as a third baseman. It’s worth a shot for both sides.
******
So what does this leave us with? A lineup that could look like this…
2B Carroll-R
LF Morrison-L
CF Kemp-R
1B Fielder-L
RF Ethier-L
3B Uribe-R
C Ellis-R
SS Gordon-S
BN: Barajas-R, Betemit-S, Sellers-R, Sands-R, Hoffmann-R
Though I know the real team would never actually let Carroll lead off and put Gordon 8th, that’s where I’m putting them due to their respective OBP skills. It’s amazing how much Fielder and Morrison lengthen that lineup, isn’t it, and how much better does that look than last year when we were forced to depend on Uribe, Dioner Navarro, Casey Blake, Marcus Thames, and Jay Gibbons? While the bench is less than sexy, that’s what you have to live with if you dedicate so much payroll to one or two expensive players. However, Sellers and Hoffmann are each excellent defenders, and could really come in handy replacing Gordon/Carroll and Morrison/Ethier for defensive purposes in the late innings. Betemit & Barajas would provide offense, if used correctly, and protection. At AAA, you’d still likely have Federowicz, Russ Mitchell, Trent Oeltjen, Alex Castellanos, Scott Van Slyke and whatever NRIs you pick up (Andy LaRoche, anyone?) along with others for depth.
Then your pitching staff would look like this…
1) Kershaw
2) Kuroda
3) Billingsley
4) Lilly
5) Bedard
CL Jansen
R Lindblom
R Guerrier
R Hawksworth
R Harden
L Elbert
NRI / Kuo / Padilla / Troncoso
I’d be a whole lot more comfortable with another ace in that rotation, but I guess that’s what happens when you give $33m to Ted Lilly. If and when Bedard breaks down, you could either move up Harden or bring up Nathan Eovaldi, John Ely, or your yearly veteran non-roster guy like Dana Eveland – if not Eveland himself. (I kind of like Dontrelle Willis as an NRI; look past his W/L record for Cincinnati and he actually had a decent year.) Later in the year, a younger starter like Allen Webster could be a factor, or even Rubby De La Rosa depending on the progress of his recovery. The bullpen could look forward to possibilities like Shawn Tolleson, Cole St. Clair, Steve Ames, and whatever random veteran NRI shows up in camp.
******
So that’s it. I’ve been staring at this for weeks and I’m still not sure I’m happy with it. Is it foolish to think that signing Fielder is even possible? Perhaps. Am I unintentionally low-balling what Bedard or Betemit might actually get, because I don’t want to give them more? Maybe so, and I didn’t get Kershaw signed long-term (though I suppose you could also do that and structure it so that it doesn’t affect 2012 that much). Either way, this is a team that could be built, in theory, for something close to what the Dodgers can spend, and it’d likely be a lot more competitive and interesting than what they have now. Compare this to some of the fantastic plans you all thought up over the weekend, and then let’s not try to be too disappointed when the big moves in reality are to bring back Rivera and sign Yuniesky Betancourt.
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Well done, sir. Not much I really would argue with. I do wonder, though, what kind of moves you might make if you passed on Fielder and still traded for LoMo. That would leave the possibility of using one of LoMo/Sands at 1B and the other in LF. In that scenario, what would you do with the savings? As you mentioned, the free agent market is pretty barren.
Comment by TravisB— October 31, 2011 #
Good question. Put more money towards Kemp / Kershaw maybe, try to do better than Sellers / Hoffmann on the bench perhaps?
Comment by Mike— October 31, 2011 #
I like it. It’s pretty well aligned with what others were discussing here the last few days.
I still think you should see what Ethier might fetch in the trade market. He could have another down season and we might not even be able to offer him arb. Especially if we’re adding LoMo AND Fielder.
I might also entertain Betemit at 3B and Uribe at 2B to save Jamey Carroll money.
Comment by Doppel— October 31, 2011 #
Yeah, I just worry about Betemit as an everyday 3B because his defense is so atrocious.
Comment by Mike— October 31, 2011 #
You get an A for effort Mike, but I wish your plan was actually tangible in the bleak reality know as the Dodgers.
Comment by juan pierre— October 31, 2011 #
Great job, Mike. I know it’s tough to maintain good stuff on a blog for so long, so let me just go ahead and express how much we appreciate your work and dedication.
The plan looks great. I’d argue that Withrow and DeJesus’ stocks are so low now that them coupled with Guerra wouldn’t be enough for Morrison (especially compared to what Anthoupolous might offer for him), but other than that, your plan is once again the gold standard by which we’ll compare Ned’s shit performance.
Comment by Robert Montenegro (@TrueMontenegro)— October 31, 2011 #
Agreed. Others might not be drinking the Guerra Kool-Aid. Then again, they did trade Dan Uggla for a utility player and left-handed reliever, so who knows?
Question to anyone who cares to answer: Would you trade Kenley Jansen in a similar package to get Morrison?
Comment by Dustin Nosler— October 31, 2011 #
I wouldn’t trade Jansen. He just looks like one of those rare gems that you wouldn’t want to give up without finding out how rare and valuable they are. i’m with Mike and would part with Guerra or whomever else they think is valuable, but giving up Jansen is too much IMO unless we’re getting something really, really great (not sure who that is but thats my opinion).
Comment by Jon#7#22— October 31, 2011 #
I’d never trade Jansen. He’s too good. I’m kinda wary of trading Guerra as I like having the flexibility of having Jansen as the setup man, but if we can get something good for Guerra while his stock is relatively high, I would be fine with it…
Comment by g— November 1, 2011 #
I’m as big a Jansen supporter as anyone (hell, I sponsor his B-R.com page). But if it means landing a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat, which Morrison is, it’d be tough to pass on that.
Comment by Dustin Nosler— November 1, 2011 #
Derek Lowe traded to Cleveland
Comment by game6ers— October 31, 2011 #
Boy that’s why I like following this blog, a lot of good ideas to think about. Good job and a lot of thought put into this.
Comment by Ned Colletti— October 31, 2011 #
There’s a few things I don’t like here. I think trades for Ethier should be explored – I think a decent prospect or 2 could be found. That would also open up an every day spot for Sands. I don’t like the idea of sitting him most days, and I don’t think he’ll get any better hitting bombs in Albuquerque every day either. I don’t like Jamey Carroll, every day 2B. He’s too old to play every day, and he’s not a great defender. I’d start Sellers and his great glove over Jamey. And I’m very unsure of a big contract for Fielder.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— October 31, 2011 #
Instead of committing all that money to a fat first baseman with no range, I’d put that money into long-term deals for Kemp and eventually Kershaw. I also think Loney is going to finally deliver on his potential over the next couple of years. Of course, whatever Colletti does is doomed to failure. He’s just got the knack of signing the wrong players to ridiculous contracts. Sometimes he overvalues them (Pierre), sometimes he doesn’t see the obvious trends (Andruw), and sometimes he looks past apparent injury issues (Schmidt). So, whatever he does will bite him in the butt. Since I like Loney, maybe a Ned non-tender is in James’ best personal interests.
A poster over at BBWC (Vinsandlosses) listed some alarming home/road splits for Aramis Ramirez. Over his career in the friendly confines, ARam has an OBP differential each year ranging from .070 to .120 higher each year at home. That does not portend well for his numbers at Dodger Stadium.
Comment by SamAdams— October 31, 2011 #
Looks good, I especially LOVE the rotation. I actually think that Bedard will sign for more than 2 mil, but maybe not if you really load his contract with achievable incentives.
The only think i don’t like is the idea of Sands and Sellers starting out the season riding the pine. I’m not sure how much I like Carroll as the starting 2b, but I guess the ability to draw a walk doesn’t really go away with age (also you can still get Jed Lowrie once you trade Ethier at the deadline).
Lastly, why the heck would you want to rely on Hoffman as a backup outfielder when you could have Gwynn for marginally more? Better speed, better defense, arguably the same offensive ceiling (with admittedly less power), and a left-handed bat (which the bench doesn’t really have except for the switch-hitting betemit).
Comment by Ben— October 31, 2011 #
I figured that since LoMo and Ethier were both lefties, it made more sense to have a righty bat. Also, I think Gwynn could actually make like 1.5m in arbitration. It probably doesn’t make a big difference either way though. If you get Fielder, you’re probably retaining Gwynn just to make him happy anyway.
Comment by Mike— October 31, 2011 #
Mike – you left off step #16 – hiring a couple of leftover Soprano hitmen to whack Ned Colletti and get yourself hired as the new GM.
Overall, there is brilliance in your plan along with the sweat and grunt work in piecing it together. Like Ben above I too think squeezing Gwynn back onto the bench is necessary. He has more flexibility in his usefulness for pinch running, defensive replacement, double and triple switches etc. He is also Fielder’s closest buddy, former roommate and Gwynn is godfather to Fielder’s kids and might be one of the few reasons Fielder comes to LA. Even Vinnie says they stay at each others houses when their teams are in town and vacation together in the off season.That should not be a concern when million dollar salaries are in play, but you never know.
Comment by Kirk Davenport— October 31, 2011 #
Good point Kirk about Gwynn. If you get Fielder, in the contract it probably says “and you make sure and sign my friend Tony Gwynn Jr.”
Comment by Jon#7#22— October 31, 2011 #
Mike, I like getting LoMo, Bedard, Harden, but I am frightened by Fielder’s lack of conditioning over a six year deal. Hey, I could be wrong and I would be happy in that instance, but I would hope for an out in there just in case. Now, I think we can do better than Carroll as an everyday player. Don’t get me wrong, I would love to keep him because he offers depth at second and short, but I don’t like him as an everyday player. I am just wondering if we could sweeten the deal with Florida for someone like Omar Infante. Infante is only scheduled to make $2.5 million in 2012 and he has options for the next two seasons, but there are buyouts. Maybe add Hawksworth or Federowicz to the deal because I think Erickson is a better option behind the plate and I am much more impressed by Tolleson at this point.
I tend to disagree on Ethier and think he could be moved in the right deal. Ned did miss the boat by not moving him on July 31, but that is Ned in a nutshell. I still think we could get something valuable for him if either from an AL team because of his potential value as a DH/left fielder. My pipe dream is moving him to the Red Sox for Will Middlebrooks, but with all the talk of moving Youkilis, I have to think that is a non-starter. I guess we can live with Barajas, as long as he is relegated to no more than 50 starts and as long as we keep Sellers around for defensive purposes, but I hope he is backing up Middlebrooks and Infante over Betemit and Carroll.
Comment by grabarkewitz— October 31, 2011 #
I like the moves you suggested, however, I wonder if the following could be a possible scenerio:
Trade Uribe/K. Russell to C. White Soxs for Adam Dunn
Trade A. Either/D. Eveland to Cinncy for Mesacoco/J. Francisco/B. Arroyo
finally the trade that was suggested to Florida to finish things off, giving us this lineup:
1B- Dunn
2B- Carroll
3B- J. Francisco
SS- Gordon
LF- Morrison
CF- Kemp
RF- Rivera or Sands
C- Mesaroco
bnch: Ellis, Sellers, Miles, Rivera or Sands, Gwynn
Kershaw
Billingsley
Lilly
Arroyo
(Sabathia)- use any free money to bring him to the NL where he wants to be
Jansen- Closer
Comment by DJ— October 31, 2011 #
>> Trade Uribe/K. Russell to C. White Soxs for Adam Dunn
.
I *hope* the assumption is that the Sox absorb most of the $44 million Dunn will be paid the next three years. Otherwise, no way in hell.
Comment by nsxtasy— October 31, 2011 #
It all makes sense to me, although I think the part that is most questionable is the acquisition of both Fielder and Morrison. I’d skip the LoMo part… but then again, I’m very confident in Jerry Sands as an everyday starter, and that might (or might not) turn out to be misplaced.
.
BTW, when you say:
.
>> Or maybe you could go cheap elsewhere and pray that Aramis Ramirez, nearing his mid-30s, is worth the ~$40m he’s likely to get to play third base?
.
How many years would that $40MM cover? At 33 at the start of 2012, I’d consider him an attractive option for 2012-2013, not so much if you have to commit to 2015 (or later).
Comment by nsxtasy— October 31, 2011 #
I think that 40 mill would be spread out over 3 years (12-14, 13.3 mill per)
Comment by Table— October 31, 2011 #
Good Work MSTI.
I would be thrilled if LoMo could be had with Guerra as the headliner, but I just can’t see them being as fooled by the shiny save stat as say, Ned.
If your scenario plays out, I wonder if the Dodgers might try Sands at 3rd. I know Logan is on record as being against it, but some team scouts thought he could handle it and it’d be a way for him to get in there every day.
Comment by saeldway— October 31, 2011 #
They already did try Sands at 3B, he was so bad it’s never been brought up again….
Comment by Jon#7#22— October 31, 2011 #
I like it. However you are indeed low balling Bedard and Betemit. Betemit gets closer to 3-4 mill if not more. Bedard health aside is one of the better free agents, he could get over 5 mill.
Comment by Table— October 31, 2011 #
I LOVE the idea of trading Guerra while his stock is high. Too bad that’ll never happen. I’d do the LoMo trade and non-tender Loney, let Sands start at first. Then use the extra money to throw at either the CJ Wilson or Aramis Ramirez situation I proposed in my plan…
Also, why the freak does everyone keep saying crap about Carroll not being an everyday player? He’s better than the alternatives at second, and his WAR for the past two years puts him firmly in starter territory. And in spite of his age, he doesn’t have an injury history that makes me all that concerned about his durability.
Comment by Alex Cora— October 31, 2011 #
Fielder, Sabathia, and Dunn? Crap! We’ll need an extra bus.
Comment by SamAdams— October 31, 2011 #
Mike,
great thoughts. But as you said you don’t believe a lot of it is going to get done. I think the chances of NOT signing Loney is about the same as McCourt giving back the 189 Mil he stole. So now, lets see you post about the team that you think we will see next year.
Comment by DaveS— October 31, 2011 #
Absolutely – we’ll be spending all winter on that, and it should be fun. (I hope.)
Comment by Mike— October 31, 2011 #
I really like the Bedard/Harden looks. And just remain hopeful that they get injured at different times in the season. While I like the idea of getting Fielder, I hate that guy. I really hope he never wears Dodger blue. The shadow boxing, the bowling pins … no place for that at Chavez Ravine. I’d almost rather try to make some trades and see what can be drummed up. But, I do enjoy this lineup.
Comment by Jeff— October 31, 2011 #
….so, you couldn’t find a way to work JW in there, eh? That boy’d make a fine 1B, or convert him to catcher, which was his original position. Or, assume I have nothing serious to add to your plan. :)
Comment by jWerthFan— October 31, 2011 #
I simply can’t abide the idea of giving Prince Fielder superstar money, especially if it’s a back-loaded “win now” type move. His homerun totals are Milwaukee inflated. He’s a poor defender. His body type has “decline” written allover it, and his attitude annoys me to no end. Not that attitude problems would prevent me from taking a chance on someone, but that’s the point. This isn’t just “take a chance on him.” It’s “wager the entire financial future of the club on him.” I’d rather use that 100+ mil to lock down Clayton Kershaw.
Comment by Paul— October 31, 2011 #
For his career he has 123 HR at home and 107 Away from Milwaukee. A little split but nothing to worry about. I think the least of our worries with Fielder would be whether or not he hits HR, you might be more correct on the body type thing.
Although I’m not sure why everyone thinks just cuz the guy is big that he is out of shape or not conditioned?? I think it’s an unfair assumption and a stereotype. Is there any real proof that Fielder is not in good shape and is not just naturally a big guy? (I’m a skinny guy by the way….)
Comment by Jon#7#22— October 31, 2011 #
So homers are the only thing that matter?
Comment by Table— October 31, 2011 #
Not the only thing, but if the whole idea is to get a power threat, don’t be surprised if his stats seem a bit empty compared to expectations.
Comment by Paul— October 31, 2011 #
I’m agreeing with you, in that his home/road ISO is more meaningful than merely comparing his homer totals
Comment by Table— October 31, 2011 #
I’m not suggesting that he’s lazy or out of shape, or that you have to be <10% body fat to be good at baseball. (I'm about 130 lbs and was usually picked last in gym) It's just that big guys tend to not age very well since carrying around all that weight puts a lot of stress on knees/joints, etc. Plus if we're counting on Dee Gordon to play SS, we probably want a plus defender at first to handle his erratic throws.
If we sign Fielder and fail to contend next year (which I still think is a likely scenario given our holes at 2b, 3b, LF, C, and in our rotation), we're going to live with the ramifications of a back-loaded contract to a guy whose production probably isn't going to justify it. We're still dealing with the ramifications of the signing Pierre, Schmidt, Ramirez, Jones, Guerrier, and Uribe. (That's not to compare Fielder to any of those players, just saying that we're pretty much wagering the future on him.)
Comment by Paul— October 31, 2011 #
His gut when he swings for the fences.
Comment by DodgersKings323— November 1, 2011 #
From what I know, Baez’s injury is to his shoulder, which might make him a bad choice to be converted to pitcher.
* * *
Just as a programming note, I have been hired as a temporary full-time worker by the local paper here in ABQ. I might be permanent in January if they can find it in the budget. If that’s the case, I will likely be part of the 2-3 person rotation on the Topes, but I hope to continue posting (free!) stories on a blog somewhere. I’ll see what I work out with the team. If no F-T in 2012, then I’ll be churning away again on Examiner.com so you all can learn comedy stylings of Kyle Russell while solving the mystery of Scott Van Slyke (prospect or flash-in-the-pan?). As well as charting the 8,000 annual pitching moves to replace the shell-shocked arms…
Comment by Chris Jackson— October 31, 2011 #
Looking forward to it!
Comment by Table— October 31, 2011 #
Well, that would do it. Congrats Chris – and good luck.
Comment by Mike— October 31, 2011 #
I don’t know if Fielder is worth that much. I know that’s what it will take to get him, but I don’t like it. If Prince is worth ~23 mil a year the Pujols is worth well over 30 million a year.
Comment by Bip— October 31, 2011 #
I agree. Nothing wrong with Fielder really, it’s just that he’s set to be paid like Pujols/Teixiera/Cabrera/Gonzalez when he’s probably the worst of that group. Maybe not though..
Comment by Table— October 31, 2011 #
The plan is great, but it won’t stop Ned from bringing back Theriot, Dotel, Furcal, and Jackson now that they’ve got rings and “veteran creamy goodness.”
Comment by ThtsaPaddlin— October 31, 2011 #
I strongly believe that whoever signs Fielder to a long term contract will be making a mistake. To begin with, he clearly benefits from playing in Miller Park. His career home/away splits on ISO are close to 60 points different according to fangraphs. His home/away splits on ISO for this last year was a 100 point difference. He’ll still be a steady source of production, but if Fielder does not go somewhere that has a stadium similar to Miller, then he will not be a threat to crack 40 bombs.
Secondly, his body type. Players with 3.5 Lbs of weight per inch of height have a significantly different career arc than players with a more normal weight profile. They tend to peak earlier @24, and begin a slight decline through their late 20′s, almost universally falling off the map once they push past 30.
If Fielder comes to Dodger Stadium, it’s possible he will flourish. However, I believe it is far more likely that his offensive production dips thanks to the stadium, and we get three pretty good years (instead of three outstanding ones) before he goes into the tank. A six year contract has the potential to give us three backloaded years of awful. That’s just too much of a risk IMO.
I firmly agree with you that we need to sign a big stick to get this team going. Kemp cannot do it himself. I hope you are right about Ethier being likely to bounce back next year (I think you are, I also agree trading him now would be foolish. I’ve never seen so many fans so eager to get rid of their second best offensive player before!), but even if he does we need some juice. I just think Fielder is an almost guaranteed backloaded liability, and while I think it’s possible we can compete next year, I am really hoping we make our signings with an eye to being a perennial contender come 2013-2014 seasons.
Aramis Ramirez is no guarantee to perform at a high level, but he is also not the long term risk that Fielder is. He can likely be had for a three year deal, and allows Uribe’s awful production to come from our 2B slot where it is much more palatable. It obviates the need to start Carroll everyday, and it opens up another path to more playing time for Sands by not blocking out 1B completely (allowing for platoons with a tendered Loney). All this, and most importantly, it will absolutely not lock us into a bunch of potentially regretfully years past the point where other dead money comes off our books, Lilly and Guerriers contracts run out, Gordon and Sands hopefully mature into studs, RDLR comes back 100%, and we maybe see the debut of Zach Lee.
Comment by Joshua Maxson— October 31, 2011 #
Josh, I can’t argue with any of this, very well thought out. The fact that Prince is so much younger than your usual FA does help alleviate some of that in my opinion. That’s part of why I don’t want to sign Ethier to a big deal, because he’s older.
Comment by Mike— October 31, 2011 #
Absolutely. I have little hope that Ethier will remain with the team into 2013, but getting rid of him now is foolish. We NEED him. As you said in the blog post, I would rather get a strong contract year from him and compensatory picks if we are competing, or whatever prospects the market will allow for come July next year if we are not than whatever we could get now while his value is at a low point.
Comment by Joshua Maxson— October 31, 2011 #
When you put it that way i guess Aramis makes more sense…
Comment by DodgersKings323— November 1, 2011 #
Mike, this might not be an answerable question given the club’s uncertainty, but if you had to guess, what are the odds that Colletti loses his job within the next couple seasons?
Comment by Paul— October 31, 2011 #
I would say its 100% based on ownership. McCourt won’t fire him. A new owner would probably want his own people.
Comment by Mike— October 31, 2011 #
Love it. Hope to god we can get Prince, that’d be a dream. Still like this trade idea:
Dodgers Get: Matt Garza, Josh Vitters, Jeff Baker
Cubs Get: Andre Ethier
Comment by Tripp— October 31, 2011 #
I would do that in absolute heartbeat. Not sure why the Cubs would though.
Comment by Mike— October 31, 2011 #
Maybe the old Cubs would have.
Comment by Bip— October 31, 2011 #
Mike, by the way great plan. Just like all our attempts there’s always different ways to go, but you’ve put in the time to make a realistic plan and one that could be very competitive and have at least a shot of winning. Thanks for your hard work and I enjoy reading the blog!
Comment by Jon#7#22— October 31, 2011 #
Thanks!
Comment by Mike— October 31, 2011 #
mike i like your ideas, but couldn’t you also add edwin jackson to the mix of bedard and harden. and why don’t the dodgers try to convert ethan martin into a closer since he can’t repeat his delivery that well.
Comment by GP— October 31, 2011 #
I think Jackson gets a 3- or 4-year deal, no? I could get behind the Martin idea.
Comment by Mike— October 31, 2011 #
Anybody look at the Gold Glove finalists? First off, it’s hilarious that they are announcing finalists this year (3 for each position, and OF is divided up by position finally).
Secondly, HOW IN THE HELL DID ALL THOSE DODGERS GET NOMINATED?
Kershaw, Kuroda, Loney, Ethier and Kemp have all been named Gold Glove Finalists. Weird. YAY for uninformed players and coaches! Maybe our team can win EVERY award in a year that they went bankrupt. That would be impressive.
Comment by Real Tom— October 31, 2011 #
Kershaw might deserve it I think. Loney’s probably in the upper third of first basemen too.
Comment by Bip— October 31, 2011 #
Kersh and Kemp will probably win due to their superstar reputations. Loney has an outside shot. I think Ethier is just an also-ran.
Comment by Brandon— October 31, 2011 #
Kershaw is great with the glove so he should be up there. Loney as well is solid (not as much range as some but he digs, fields and throws pretty darn good). Kuroda? who knows. Kemp, yeah not this year and Ethier not sure how he got his name there.
The GG has been kind of ridiculous for years now. It seems to usually go to the guy who has a great offensive year and then that somehow makes him a good fielder. Not always, as there are exceptions, but it’s certainly one of the less serious awards in terms of actual players deserving.
Comment by Jon#7#22— October 31, 2011 #
And yes, that means the Dodgers have 66% chance of winning the pitching Gold Glove.
Comment by Real Tom— October 31, 2011 #
I would be very surprised if somebody other than Kershaw won the Gold Glove. I watched almost every Dodger game and he gets to a lot of little rollers, and never seems to be in close foot races when covering 1st.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— October 31, 2011 #
I’ve seen him make some utterly spectacular plays. I remember one against Atlanta and one against the Angels.
Comment by Bip— October 31, 2011 #
You won’t have old Fast, Black Abe Lincoln to pick on anymore.
Just know that one day, late in 2012, you’ll be in a must-win game, the winning run will be on second in Prince Fielder… THEN you’ll be sorry you let me go!
I’ll take my heart and soul somewhere where it’ll be recognized a couple times a season.
You’ll all pay for this.
Comment by Eugenio Velez— October 31, 2011 #
Take a hike, Baron Pickoff Von Ironglove
.
I have this weird feeling that this might actually be Eugeni0-for the season. I hope it is.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— October 31, 2011 #
Good plan, I like the offense capability and the staff would be good. I think the cubs will make a big push for prince. So, he may be harder or higher to get. Overall, very creative way to make a team I think could compete. At least be fun to watch.
Comment by Gillbert— October 31, 2011 #
Very possible about the Cubs – Theo Epstein may have to go all out to get a player like Fielder to start making his impression on the team. I think with the MYSTI plan the Dodgers will compete but as far as the fun aspect, as long as McCourt is in there, having the 1927 Yankees on the field might not satisfy me or get me to the stadium, but with I new owner, I would go to Dodger stadium to watch a AAA replcement squad in Dodger blue.
Comment by Kirk Davenport— October 31, 2011 #
+1 with further reduced prices of course.
Comment by DodgersKings323— November 1, 2011 #
Overall a great plan – if only Ned had a clue about any of it.
Going back to the discussions about wasting AB’s on terrible players… I think your proposed team will have 5 position players fully capable of contributing over 2.0 WAR (Kemp, Morrison. Ethier, Gordon and Fielder) That puts the team in pretty good stead with possibly only Uribe wasting many at bats. Carroll and the catchers probably will not contribute a lot, but will not waste much either. One move that could put the team up to 6 players with 2+ WAR and therefore pretty much a lock for the playoffs would be the move I proposed before. Daniel Murphy should be sought instead of Betemit. He could be had for a similar package as Morrisson or maybe a few more expendable minor leaguers thrown in. Start Murphy, bump Carroll back to the bench and have Uribe and Murphy split up 2b and 3B where ever they play best. Murphy is a better hitter and much better fielder than Betemit and would cost less in salary. Murphy is a proven hitter and fielder would be the third best hitter on the team. He is capable of playing most positions at a plus level.( Ideally, Uribe gets hurt, Murphy plays third and Carroll at second and the team is cruising on all cylinders). That trade would give you a lineup of:
Gordon
Morrison
Kemp
Fielder
Murphy
Ethier
Uribe
Ellis
with a bench of : Carroll, Barajas, Sands, Gwynn of Hoffmann and Sellers
There would be at least 6 players who should be above 2.0 WAR, a versatile bench of mostly plus defenders and with only weak fielders starting at RF, SS and 1B. it improves the bench with Carroll’s versatility over Betemit
*Either that or bring Loney back as a super utility player – he could pinch hit, be a late inning defensive replacement for Fielder and also come in to pitch relief (LOL) – costing a bit more, but by playing two roles or more, he would free up an extra roster spot for Fedex- how about that for out of the box thinking
Comment by Kirk Davenport— October 31, 2011 #
I thought people could tell I was totally kidding about bringing back Loney in the post above. In case you cannot – I WAS ONLY KIDDING ABOUT LONEY
I thought his defense was necessary, but the team would be much better off with Fielder instead.
Comment by Kirk Davenport— October 31, 2011 #
i’d be ok with just Lomo for the offense. easy upgrade over Loney
Comment by Joey E.— October 31, 2011 #
Normally I would not believe in Loney suddenly becoming a different player, and I still mostly do not. However late career transformations by Jose Bautista and Michael Morse make me more hopeful that Loney’s supposed changes have indeed occurred.
Comment by Table— October 31, 2011 #
Bill Shakin reporting on LA Times. McCourt may be close to agreeing to sell the Dodgers.
http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-1101-dodgers-sale-20111101,0,3218015.story
Comment by Tommy Blackjack— October 31, 2011 #
If you read closely, nothing has happened and McCourt has not made any statements or indications he will sell. The article only mentions that “in the opinion of people close to the negotiations” McCourt is likely to be closer to coming to the idea he will have to sell.. It would be nice if these people were speaking with real authority.
The latest talk is that he will have to sell the stadium and parking lot also. Not being discussed is all the rest of the surrounding land. Could McCourt be holding on to that to develop it into condos, offices and malls in order to spoil the view of the people in the stadium?
Comment by Kirk Davenport— October 31, 2011 #
With how much he’s hated and the way the people who live in the surrounding area don’t want anything built in Chavez Ravine. there is no way he gets the LA Zoning board to go along w/ that.
O’Malley had to fight tooth and nail to get a football stadium only to have Mayor Reardon torpedo it by siding w/ the coliseum commission, And Ol’ Frankie doesn’t have any goodwill built up to get any type of condos, offices and malls
Comment by sundaysilence89— November 1, 2011 #
According to MLBtraderumors.com mmccourt and mlb are close to an agreement to sell the team. Only A rumor. But Waht a sweet rumor!!!!
Comment by Since84— October 31, 2011 #
Mike like lots of your ideas but am not sold on Morrison and would like to see Sands take that spot. If you can’t get Fielder, I am nervous about Ramirez, and since I believe we can contend next year, would love to try and work out a trade for David Wright.
I use the same players and probably have to add one pitching prospect, not Jansen to get Wright. My reasoning is that since Wright has said if traded he would probably not pick-up the second year option of his contract, he would be motivated to have a great contract year.
Comment by Louis— October 31, 2011 #
Did we miss an opportunity to take a chance on Derek Lowe?
$5M and a low-level ML’r for a guy that could have very well flourished in a return to Dodger Stadium.
Comment by Garrett— November 1, 2011 #
Cool, though i would make extending Kershaw #2 ahead of Fielder. With a new owner hopefully a signing like Fielder wouldn’t be a big deal so i guess i’m ok with it. If you have to sign one of these big guys at least make it the youngest one. Love to see LoMo in a Dodger uniform, will be amusing at least.If you have to bring back Carroll try to make it 1 year, but whatever that’s small potatoes compared to the bigger blunders we’ve seen. Those last two guys i actually wanted as lotto tickets in the past, so hey if the Giants can fluke themselves to a title then maybe anyone can. At least they’re younger than Lilly.
Comment by DodgersKings323— November 1, 2011 #
I noticed you’ve left Broxton on the list of free agents to let go, unless they agree to a minor league contract. With the dominance he showed in the past and the fact that he’s been playing through an injury, do you think it’d be worth the risk to sign him to a small, guaranteed contract? Seems like it’d be a big enough reward, if Brox came back strong. Personally, I just hate letting good, home grown players go when you don’t have a clear view of what their future is yet. And, if for no other reason, I’d like to see him back so that all the bloggers have to listen to fans complain about his lack of testicular fortitude, lol. Kidding.
Comment by Wil— November 1, 2011 #
A lot of thought went into your plan, great job.
Love the LoMo trade. Hate signing Fielder unless you think the NL is going to adopt a rule that instead of extra innings, games will be decided by Sumo wrestling.
I don’t want Ethier around. I am not willing to do a “Ned trade” (we are talking about a man who traded for Lance Carter) but if I could get Middlebrooks or Grandal or the trade proposed above with the Cubs, he is gone.
No Ethier, no Fielder allows me to get Kelly Johnson, Rivera, Gwynn, Carroll, old friend Andy LaRoche, David DeJesus. Some of them, not all.
Comment by oldfan60— November 1, 2011 #
MTSI:
I’ll be a passenger on your Prince Fielder train if you want, ’cause it would be great, but there’s no way in the world he’s leaving a solid, contending team for a team where the ownership is a much of a wreck as it is here when the money wouldn’t be hugely different even in a perfect world. And anyway, we all know that if Frankie is still around, which he will be for a minimum of a few months even in the best case scenario, he’s never going to sign up for a 6 year/$140M contract. You’ve said so yourself several tims this season. Why tease us? We should all just accept that Loney and his inconsistencies will be back next year. This season may very well be another Vlad situation where our ownership mess costs us a premium player.
Great job as always, though. You leave me every year wishing that we could move you into Ned’s office.
Comment by Steve— November 1, 2011 #
mike, what do you think about trying to get angel pagan. i think he’s a non-tender candidate
Comment by GP— November 1, 2011 #
I’d take him over Gwynn. He’ll probably get a few mil somewhere though.
Comment by Mike— November 1, 2011 #
Mike,
What about adding a Japanese pitcher or 2? Especially ones are that younger than the aging Kuroda? I know the Dodgers have been looking at a few of them.
Comment by Shane— November 1, 2011 #
Well, Darvish would be great but if he comes to America, he’s the most coveted pitcher on the market so he’ll get top $$$. Wada is okay, I’d take him cheaply, can’t say he excites me too much. I don’t know much about the other guy. Iwakuma I think?
Comment by Mike— November 1, 2011 #
Mike,
I wanted to say thank you as I like this type of rambling off-season possibilities post.
Could feel the love, excitement, and pride while reading it.
Comment by Dusty Baker's Toothpick— November 1, 2011 #
Spent far too much time on it, too. Thanks!
Comment by Mike— November 1, 2011 #
a post on the various potential markets for ethier would probably be rich if done by yourself
Comment by Dusty Baker's Toothpick— November 1, 2011 #
oh….it looks like the dodgers are nearing a deal w/ juan rivera (via MLBTR)
Comment by GP— November 1, 2011 #
Mike what about including monasterios or troncoso, or perhaps even both in the LoMo trade rather than javy guerra. Troncoso and Monasterios seem like easier options to part with
Comment by Andy— November 1, 2011 #
Why would the Marlins want to do that though? Monasterios is out with Tommy John surgery, and Troncoso was awful.
Comment by Mike— November 1, 2011 #
Mike, very nice work. IMO I just dont see Prince Fielder signing with LA, although there is a chance. I also don’t believe Logan Morrison is available, not yet anyway. I hope the Dodgers keep Chris Withrow to see how he continues to develop in Chattanooga; he could become a MLB SP. Ethan Martin seems destined to at best become a MLB reliever, and possibly a good one. Both of the
Ps need better command of the strike zone, obviously. Go Blue!
Comment by dodgerccp— November 2, 2011 #
I think the Dodgers will resign Tony Gwynn Jr. as well, as he provides an above-average defensive replacement, and possibly the best pinch-running option in MLB. He should not get above 1.25M though. Go Blue!
Comment by dodgerccp— November 2, 2011 #
(Full disclaimer: I’m a nearly-unapologetic Loney fan. They seem to be hard to find these days.)
Mike, I thing your long-time skepticism (to put it nicely) of Loney is hindering your assessment of what he’d be worth to some GMs. Loney has been penalized by many for playing in a platinum era of first baseman, but for all the most favorable comparisons of him to Mark Grace, consider that he had an even better year than Grace during HIS fourth full season (also when he was Loney’s age). Even if you’re right and we’re not, the fact that people out there still see him for what he still may become ALONE shows he’s worth something. Beyond the Mark Grace thing, I won’t go into any specifics as to why he could still be a surprisingly good ballplayer from this point forward, but I will say that in a world where the Angels trade for Vernon Wells and take on his entire contract, in a world where Jayson Werth can, somehow, get nine figures, there will be a team out there that will take a chance at Loney for a measley $6 mil. So as far as I’m concerned, the MINIMUM acceptable thing to do would tender him a contract, and trade him for something of value.
Comment by Scott— November 2, 2011 #
One other thing worth mentioning. It is interesting- not unsurprising, but interesting- how differently people measure Ethier and Loney’s value going forward. In spite of the fact that Ethier and Loney basically had the same kind of year in 2011 overall, and Ethier is older, will be twice as expensive AT LEAST, and has an injury history, more than a few want to non-tender Loney, while signing Ethier to a long term contract. I’m not saying Loney is going to be better than Ethier- he certainly hasn’t been so far- but the risk/reward ratio is equally skewed in opposite directions for those two, IMO.
Comment by Scott— November 2, 2011 #
Did you mention signing Kershaw? At least as big a priority as Matt Kemp.
Comment by harvey980— November 3, 2011 #
I would love this team, but I would not go through the trouble of trading for Morrison. I like him, but I think Sands will be ok, and Rivera is not awful. Plus, I suspect Florida would want more for LoMo.
Comment by Lexo— November 3, 2011 #
[...] MSTI: Mike Petriello puts together an off-season plan for the 2012 Dodgers. [...]
Pingback by Chad Moriyama – Around The Web: Off-season Plan, Frank McCourt & Awards— November 4, 2011 #
[...] seem to be room in the budget for that. Granted, I managed to find room for Prince Fielder in my 2012 plan, but that assumed Loney and his ~$6m would be non-tendered – unlikely to really happen [...]
Pingback by Let’s Just Stop With the David Wright Talk Right Now « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— November 7, 2011 #
[...] So it’s fair to ask – after the recent spending spree, how much is left? When I did my 2012 plan a few weeks ago (one which looks more outdated by the day), I noted that the 2011 club had spent [...]
Pingback by What Do the Dodgers Have Left? « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— November 15, 2011 #