2011 October « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness

MSTI’s 2011 in Review: First Base

October 5, 2011 at 8:57 am | Posted in James Loney | 38 Comments

Man, I barely know where to start with this one…

James Loney (Grade: ¿ or ¡ maybe? Or æ. Ooh, let’s go with þ.)
.288/.339/.416 .755 12hr 1.1 WAR

When I first started putting these 1991 Topps cards together, it was early August, and Loney’s was one of the first ones I did. The original photo was of him with his head down, walking slowly back to the dugout after yet another failed at-bat. He looked sad, which is exactly how he made us feel.

You’ll notice that this image of sadness is no longer included in his card. Now, the picture is of him focusing on another hapless pitcher, helplessly attempting to figure out what he can do to fool the Unstoppable Force That Is James Loney. If you think that sounds weird now, just imagine what the July version of you would have said.

Other than Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw, I’m pretty sure that there was no player discussed on this site in 2011 more than Loney, simply because he was so damn confounding. Since he’s the only first baseman we’re talking about today, we’re going to take a nice leisurely ride through the good, bad, and downright bizarre of Loney’s season. No, really, be warned: I wrote a lot about Loney this season.

Hell, the season hadn’t even started when I first really bagged on him back on March 24:

(*Regarding Loney, I’d like to note here that I’m in an NL-only draft with several of my Baseball Prospectus cohorts, in a league which requires full 40-man rosters. As you can imagine, the pickings in the lower rounds of this draft are beyond slim. We’re in the 35th round, so over 400 players are off the board. Loney remains available.)

At the time, that seemed in no way unreasonable, and things didn’t look any better on April 14, when I noted that he was “sucking in a fashion not generally seen outside of the darkest corners of the internet,” and by April 20 he was getting entire posts dedicated to how awful he was, not only here, but at Baseball Prospectus, where I pointed out that his home/road and lefty/right splits were so severe, his only hope of success might be as a platoon player outside of Dodger Stadium.

That was followed up by “James Loney’s Total Eclipse of the Bat” on May 7:

The list you’re seeing there is of all non-pitchers since the 1947 integration who have had as many plate appearances as Loney did entering tonight, sorted by fewest extra-base hits. Loney had two hits in five plate appearances tonight that aren’t reflected here, but they were each singles, so it doesn’t really change the results.

What’s really enlightening here is to look at the position column, all the way to the right. Almost all of these hitless wonders were middle infielders from decades ago, at a position and time where a lack of power was accepted, with a few catchers thrown in for good measure. Worse, this is a list comprised almost entirely of players who never really had careers to speak of. You haven’t heard of Dwain Anderson, Elio Chacon, or Larry Lintz, right? The only one here who is notable in any way is Al Lopez, a fine catcher who made the Hall of Fame via the Veterans Committee, but whose entry on this list was the final season of his 19-year career, at age 38.

It gets worse. I didn’t include the full list above, but it actually goes out to 55 names, as there are dozens of others tied with Loney at two extra-base hits. You might think that by stretching it out that far, you’d end up with at least a few other first basemen. You’d be wrong. It’s almost entirely comprised of catchers, second basemen and shortstops, with the odd center fielder (like 39-year-old Brett Butler’s 1993, or 22-year-old Juan Pierre‘s 2000). In fact, the only other player on the list who even played a single inning at first base was Mike Fiore in 1970, split between the Red Sox and Royals. Fiore played his final MLB game at 27 two years later, which is exactly the age Loney turned today.

Let’s not stop there, though. We all know that this isn’t just six weeks of underwhelming production, but that he’s coming off a tough second half of 2010, too. From the start of last year’s second half on July 15 through the start of play today, Loney had 405 plate appearances and a line of .213/.274/.305, an OPS of .579. Using the same timeframe of 1947-present, here’s the list of seasons of at least 405 plate appearances by players who saw at least half of their time at first base, sorted by lowest OPS.

James Loney, at that point, was historically awful, and as the season slipped away, most of us wondered how long it was worthwhile to stick with him, particularly as he went nearly six weeks without an extra-base hit. Here’s the thing, though: I feel like a lot of people are under the misconception that Loney was garbage for over four months and then suddenly turned it on in August. That’s not exactly true; while he didn’t become James Loney, Superhero, until late summer, there were already signs in May that he was starting to pick it up:

As I joked on Twitter, James Loney is slowly moving into “not our biggest problem” territory, after reaching base three times today. That doesn’t mean that he’s suddenly become all that good or that I’ve changed my overall opinion on him, but he has doubled in three straight games and hit in 8 of 9 & 15 of 18, raising his line from an unbelievably bad .167/.191/.211 on April 23 to a more realistically poor line of .240/.283/.292 after today. With the rest of the injury and production issues mounting, and Loney still contributing his usual solid defense, he’s no longer the biggest concern.

And again, on May 30:

James Loney hadn’t thrilled the home crowd with a homer since August 31, 2010, when he took Philadelphia’s Kyle Kendrick deep. He’s now done it twice in four days, tonight leading the Dodgers with three hits as they battered Colorado’s Jason Hammel and the reeling Rockies on their way to a 7-1 win. Loney’s certainly playing like a man who wants to keep his job, and a .295/.354/.420 in May is certainly a good start. It’ll take more than that to overcome everything else, but it’s a step in the right direction, and for all the heat he’s taken here and elsewhere over the last year, it’s fantastic to see any bit of a spark from him.

…and again, on June 23:

Since that four-hit game on April 26, Loney has turned his season around, hitting .331/.388/.432 in 188 plate appearances, good for an .820 OPS with a nice 14/16 K/BB ratio. That OPS still isn’t great – it’d put him at 13th among qualified 1B if he’d had it for the full season - but it’s immensely better than his “among the worst in history” start to the season.

To even be able to say that Loney has value with a straight face, after months of wondering when he’d be benched, is a testament to just how good he’s been lately.

All of which was reflected in his midseason grade in early July:

James Loney (C-) (.268/.311/.342 4hr -0.5 WAR)

I feel weird giving Loney a C-, because his line and a grade in that range suggest that he was his normal mediocre self all season. Far from it; by early May, he was the most hated man in LA since OJ and we were all writing articles about how bad his season was going to be on a historical level. Since then, he’s basically been the best non-Kemp hitter on the team. That doesn’t mean he’s good – hooray, a .751 OPS from a 1B since April 26! – and again, that says a lot about the rest of the players on this team, but nothing tells you more about the plight of the 2011 Dodgers than the fact that their punchless overpaid first baseman is no longer even close to being the biggest issue here.

So to say that Loney finally started showing some life in August isn’t exactly true, as he’d been on a slow incline all season. This would all make for a nice and tight narrative… if not for July. Holy good lord, July:

Split	G	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
April/March	28	112	22	1	1	5	16	.210	.241	.248	.489
May	28	100	27	5	2	7	5	.293	.350	.413	.763
June	25	97	30	3	1	7	12	.337	.381	.404	.786
July	25	81	13	4	0	5	10	.176	.225	.230	.455
August	27	90	29	6	5	10	12	.367	.433	.633	1.066
Sept/Oct	25	102	32	11	3	8	12	.348	.400	.587	.987

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original TableGenerated 10/1/2011.

July was so bad that it was even worse than his April, and April was putrid. It was so bad that on August 3, all three Dodger beat writers wrote about how bad things were, as he’d been dropped into something of a platoon with Juan Rivera at first base. For my part, my patience had run out:

The total there is good enough for the 10th-worst OPS in MLB, and other than the inexplicable collapse of Adam Dunn, every single one of the guys performing worse than Loney are up the middle players, either 2B, SS, or CF. We could cite any number of stats pointing out his ineptitude – among players with as many PA as Loney has, he’s the 6th worst player by TAv – but in this case it’s not really necessary, because the eye test is clearly good enough.

Getting pinch-hit for in the late innings of a close game or not, it’s clear that Loney’s tenure as a Dodger is coming to an end. To his credit, his quotes in the above stories reflect a player who understands that he hasn’t been performing, and I’d also praise Mattingly for not slavishly continuing to play him every day when the production isn’t there. Loney’s an all-but-guaranteed non-tender following the season, though it should be noted there’s no obvious replacement for him in 2012, either.

And that was the end, it seemed, of James Loney, member of the Los Angeles Dodgers. But beginning with the ridiculous 24-hour span in which he threw a bullpen session in case he was needed to help support an overworked bullpen and then went 4-4 with a homer and a double the next day, Loney became a new man. That was August 21, and it all started happening from there.

August 27:

But back to Loney. I’ve been making jokes about his performance against the Rockies for some time now, chalking most of it up to the Coors Field effect. Clearly, that doesn’t hold water anymore; the last two have come at home. He’s now hit just two homers in the last 362 days that didn’t come against Colorado. The Dodgers finish off the series against the Rockies with Nathan Eovaldi against Jhoulys Chacin tomorrow, before welcoming San Diego into town. Has Loney really turned some kind of corner? Or will he turn back into a pumpkin as soon as Jim Tracy and crew leave town? More importantly, is this going to convince Ned Colletti to tender him a contract after the season? I still think it’s unlikely at the price he’d get in arbitration, but the last week or two has thrown some doubt into the conversation…

August 30:

As hot as Loney as been lately – and make no mistake, he’s been excellent – it’s also been eight games and 35 at-bats. In his previous 37 at-bats, leading back to the beginning of the month, he’d hit .243/.341/.351 with two extra-base hits. In all of July, he hit .176/.225/.230 with four extra-base hits, all doubles. So as much as I’m enjoying the new and improved James Loney, this level of production is going to need to last for at least another week or two (if not the rest of the season) before I’m able to chalk it up to anything more than a very welcome hot streak.

That’s what brings me back to perception. Streaks happen in baseball. Anyone can have one, in either direction. Just as Loney is absolutely not as good as he’s been over the last week, he’s also not really as bad as he showed in April when we were all calling for his head. It won’t take too much more for this hot streak to basically counteract his frigid start; as Jon Weisman rightly mentioned at Dodger Thoughts, since Loney’s low point on April 24, he’s essentially been standard-issue Loney, with an OPS similar to his career marks.

—-

The point is, absent further information or the unlikely probability that Loney hits like this through the end of the season, he’s probably going to be the same James Loney that he’s always been. He’ll end up with 10-12 homers and a line somewhere in the neighborhood of .280/.335/.395, just like every year. He was never as bad as we poked fun at him for being early in the season when he struggled to get the average above .200, nor is he as good as he’s seemed in the last week. He’s still going to be a likely non-tender following the season, simply because the Dodgers can’t afford to pay ~$6m to a non-star first baseman (though it’s possible they still attempt to bring him back after that for a lesser price.)

The thing is… he kept it up. If his September wasn’t quite as good as his August, it was still excellent with a .987 OPS. The longer his tear went on, the clearer it became that he was going to be sticking around.

September 18:

Back to Loney, with only nine games left, I’ve begun to change my tune. No, I don’t necessarily think he’s “for real”, and there’s still a very good argument to be made that he should be non-tendered, but I think we’ve reached the point where the conversation is mostly going to be for the sake of argument: whether any of us like it or not, he’s going to get tendered a contract for 2012.

That holds true today – I strongly believe Loney gets tendered. And maybe, just maybe, that’s not as bad of an idea as we think it is. If you’re not getting Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder – which, spoiler alert, you’re not – the remaining first base alternatives aren’t all that enticing, particularly if Jerry Sands is filling an outfield spot. If, somehow, he’s figured it out, then one year at ~$6m isn’t that terrible. If he hasn’t? Well, with Dee Gordon and his erratic arm at shortstop, you’re going to need a first baseman who can pick it. Still not necessarily saying I’d do it, but I can understand the reasons why the Dodgers might. Without question, the Loney choice is going to be the highest risk / highest reward issue of the winter.

******

Next! Aaron Miles grits his way to glory! Ivan DeJesus disappoints! Juan Castro can’t be killed! And oh holy good lord, Eugenio Velez! It’s second base!

Well, That’s One Way to Fix The Dodgers

October 4, 2011 at 6:45 pm | Posted in Jim Bowden | 34 Comments

I’m still trying to put together my 2012 plan, traditionally the longest and most difficult post of the year. It’s unbelievably difficult this year, and not just because of the McCourt-based financial difficulties; other than Albert Pujols & Prince Fielder, who few expect to come to Los Angeles, there’s just really not a whole lot of offense out there.

Over at ESPN, Jim Bowden, former GM in Cincinnati and Washington, has his own ideas on what the Dodgers should do. I’ll be upfront here and say that I’ve often found Bowden’s ideas foolish, both during his GM career and after; that said, he was a GM for fifteen years, so it could be interesting look at how someone in the game might attack the Dodger situation. Or, you know, not, considering some of these whoppers.

Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder: Everyone associated with the Dodgers, from the front office to the media to the players and fans, all want them to sign either Pujols or Fielder to put an impact bat in between Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. I’m hearing Frank McCourt has even given General Manager Ned Colletti the go-ahead to pursue them with the impression the Dodgers could fit either one of them into their budgets going forward. However, it is difficult to believe that the bankruptcy court and/or Major League Baseball would approve such a transaction until the team’s ownership and television deal are resolved. Even if the deal were approved, it would be more than likely Pujols would end up re-signing with the St. Louis Cardinals while Fielder takes the largest offer on the table — and that probably won’t be from the Dodgers.

Agreed. It’s unlikely the Dodgers have the money for either, and as we looked at a few weeks ago, it’s not necessarily the best idea anyway.

Getting younger: If the Dodgers can’t sign for Pujols or Fielder, they should look to get younger and continue to build around Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw. Perhaps a blockbuster deal with the Cincinnati Reds that would send right fielder Andre Ethier and pitcher Chad Billingsley to the Queen City in exchange for a package that included Yonder Alonso, Devin Mesoraco or Yasmani Grandal, Juan Francisco, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake. Such a deal would give the Dodgers two young starters to go behind Kershaw while solving catcher, first base and one of the corner outfield positions for a long time. The deal might be unpopular for the short term but all of these players will be able to contribute in 2012. This would also free up enough money to get Kemp and Kershaw signed long-term, which should be the team’s top priority anyway.

Now we’re talking. Bowden’s not wrong that a lot of Dodger fans would hate this, but I would not be among them. Five of Cincinnati’s better young players – well, four and Juan Francisco – with Alonso and Mesoraco sporting drool-worthy on-base skills, all under team control, for Ethier (coming off an injury, headed into his free agent year, and clearly unhappy in Los Angeles) and Billingsley (coming off a frustrating season), who are owed something like $21m next season? Where are the Reds going to be spenders like that? It’d probably involve forcing the Dodgers to take the ~$13.5m or so left on Bronson Arroyo‘s contract too, but the problem with that is that it starts getting into realistic situations, and there is nothing realistic about this. Pretty sure the only outcome of this would be to expedite Walt Jocketty’s dismissal as Reds GM. Unless that’s Bowden’s ultimate goal, of course – to get his old job back. Long story short, this is totally unrealistic, but yes please!

Hiroki Kuroda: He turned away the opportunity to be traded to a contending team in July because he wanted to stay in Los Angeles with a team that was not going to the postseason. Perhaps he could be persuaded to take less than market value to re-sign with the Dodgers. If they don’t jump on him before he enters free agency they could lose him to the Los Angeles Angels or a Japanese team.

Probably. Though I’m guessing that since he had arguably his best season, he won’t be too amenable to much of a pay cut.

James Loney: The Dodgers should trade James Loney to the Cleveland Indians, who are unhappy with Matt LaPorta at first base and want to keep Carlos Santana behind the plate. The Dodgers should attempt to acquire either Vinnie Pestano, Nick Hagadone, Rafael Perez or Tony Sipp to add yet another good arm to their improving bullpen.

I actually kind of like this, though similar to the problem with the Reds, I’m not sure I see an Ohio team wanting to take on a sizable contract for a questionable player with one year left before free agency. I’ve long coveted SoCal native Pestano and his massive strikeout rates (92 in 67 MLB IP), however. Putting him alongside Kenley Jansen would be just unfair, and it would help Ned Colletti not try to go out and buy an overpriced arm on the market. Again, though – this is a thing that isn’t happening.

Another big get: If the Dodgers were able to clear enough payroll space with the deals with the Reds and Indians, they could delve into free agency and try to sign Carlos Beltran to a two-year $26-$28 million dollar deal to play right field. This would allow Beltran and Alonso to sandwich Kemp in the middle of the Dodgers’ lineup. The Rays are expected to listen to offers for B.J. Upton and the Twins on Denard Span. The Dodgers should try to trade for either one of them to combine with Dee Gordon at the top of the lineup and improve their outfield range.

Don’t also forget that Beltran is a Type A free agent, ~~which would mean that the Dodgers would have to surrender their first-round pick to the Giants, a prospect so distasteful that I imagine it’s exactly the sort of thing Colletti would do.~~ (As Scott points out in the comments, Beltran is a Type A, but his contract states he cannot be offered arbitration, so no draft pick compensation would be necessary.)

So if Bowden’s plans all went through, this is the team you’d be looking at (ignoring the Upton/Span comment since he didn’t propose an actual deal):

SS Gordon / 1B Alonso / CF Kemp / RF Beltran / LF Sands / C Mesoraco / 3B Francisco / 2B Uribe

SP Kershaw / SP Kuroda / SP Lilly / SP Leake / SP Bailey

CL Guerra / RP Jansen / RP Pestano / RP Guerrier / RP Lindblom / RP Elbert

Which comes out to something like $75m (+~$20m in dead money), and when you look at it like that, well, hey, that’s not a bad club at all, save for some possibly brutal defense on the left side of the infield. Of course, it requires two trades which would never happen, and signing the best outfielder on the market. But if you can squint hard enough to get past all that? Well, it’s clever, at least.

Dodgers Decline Options on Casey Blake & Jon Garland

October 4, 2011 at 12:23 pm | Posted in Casey Blake, Eugenio Velez, Jon Garland | 17 Comments

This isn’t so much “news” as it is an “absolute inevitability, but the offseason doesn’t really start for another month, so we might as well note it anyway” piece of interest, but the Dodgers did make some roster moves today:

Today, the #Dodgers declined the 2012 club options on both Jon Garland and Casey Blake and also outrighted Eugenio Velez to Triple-A

That costs $1.25m to buy out Blake, and $500k for Garland. It may seem annoying to pay players $1.75m to go away, but remember that the alternatives were $6m for Blake and $8m for Garland, numbers which never made sense on any level. So this was a given.

I don’t expect either back, though it’s not completely out of the question. Ken Gurnick of Dodgers.com noted that Blake “could figure for a bench job if he heals from neck surgery”, while Garland is “ahead of schedule in his return from shoulder surgery”. On the other hand, ESPN/LA’s Tony Jackson said there is “no chance Dodgers try to re-sign” Garland. So there’s that.

As for Velez, it’s merely a procedural move. He’s out of options and would seem to be more likely to be outrighted to a Siberian labor camp than a professional baseball team, so don’t worry too hard about seeing him back next season.

MSTI’s 2011 in Review: Catcher

October 3, 2011 at 9:01 am | Posted in 2011 in Review, A.J. Ellis, Dioner Navarro, Hector Gimenez, Rod Barajas, Tim Federowicz | 69 Comments

As promised yesterday, we’re kicking off the fifth year of MSTI Season Reviews today with the catchers. I’ll probably run 2-3 of these a week through October, working in looks at arbitration choices and other stories as events warrant.

The Dodgers used five catchers this year, the most since using six in 1976, and tied with many seasons for seventh-most in club history. (The team record, eight, was set by the 1938 Brooklyn club. And who doesn’t remember Greek George, Paul Chervinko, and Gilly Campbell from that ’38 crew?) Going from the lows of Rod Barajas and Dioner Navarro early in the season to the even further lows of Barajas and Navarro in the middle of the year, finally rebounding with solid finishes by Barajas and A.J. Ellis, the composite Dodger catching crew finished 17th in catcher OPS, .698. That says a whole lot more about the state of catching in the majors right now than it does about the Dodgers.

Rod Barajas (C+)
.230/.287/.430 .717 16hr 1.4 WAR

Remember how we felt when the Dodgers signed Barajas last winter, or as I called it at the time, “Rod Barajas Turned One Good Week Into $3.25m“? No? Bask in it with me again:

Barajas signed for $500k with the Mets last year, waiting until just before camp opened in February to even get that. He was then so bad that the woeful Mets, you know, let him go to the Dodgers on waivers for absolutely nothing. Granted, he had a great first week or so in Dodger blue – 4 homers, 1.458 OPS in his first 8 games. Yet in his remaining 17 games, he had just 1 homer and a .612 OPS, also known as “Rod Barajas being Rod Barajas“. On the season, he had a .284 OBP, which exactly matches his career mark, because he’s not very good.

Look at it this way – Barajas had never made more than $3.2m, which is what he got from Texas in 2006. He’s now five years older, coming off several lousy seasons bouncing from team to team – making less than $1m in two of them – yet somehow, coming off a year in which he was dumped on waivers and will be 35, he’s all of a sudden worth $~~3.8m~~ 3.25m. Seriously? In my 2011 plan, when I said he could come back I said that I thought he could be had for $800k. Is this all because of his one good week as a Dodger? I’ve had to deal with a lot of casual fans who got taken in by that, but I never expected the front office to do so.

That have been just a bit harsh, for reasons we’ll get to in a second, and Barajas ended up doing exactly what Rod Barajas does. Batting average between .225-.255, just like it’s been every year since 2004? Check. Terrible OBP, close to his lousy career mark of .284? You better believe it. Solid amount of pop, resulting in 11-19 homers for the fifth time in six years? Natch. Missing about a month with a lower body injury (this time an ankle sprain) for the fourth time in five years? Mmm-hmm. One ridiculously red-hot stretch (1.153 August OPS) surrounded by a season of ineptitude (no other month above .664), just like last year? Damn straight.

He’s like clockwork. Mediocre, uninspiring clockwork.

Here’s the thing, though: the state of catching is so poor that even with all those warts, Barajas was able to provide some amount of value. Only ~~two~~ three NL catchers had more homers than Barajas’ 16, and they all had well 150 or more plate appearances than he did to get there; add that to roughly average defense, and he’s slightly above replacement level, 14th of 23 MLB catchers with at least 300 PA in rWAR. That said, the flaws in his game mean that even with the power, he was tied for 11th in wOBA of the 13 NL catchers who had at least 300 PA. Much like the potassium benzoate in the frogurt… that’s bad.

Barajas is a free agent, and he turned 36 in September. For his part, he wants to return, and if you’re not convinced that Tim Federowicz is ready to start the season in the bigs as Ellis’ partner, you could perhaps make an argument for it simply on the basis of his pop and the lack of viable alternatives. But if he really wants to be a Dodger that bad, toss him an $1m contract offer and say “take it or leave it”. Otherwise, it’s easy enough to move on.

On the other hand… he did do this, which is the greatest thing ever.

Dioner Navarro (F)
.193/.276/.324 .600 5hr -0.3 WAR

AKA, “the guy who always seemed to come up in the ninth inning with the game on the line, always.”

It’s not like we shouldn’t have seen this coming, of course. When the Dodgers signed Navarro on December 8 of last year, I shared this quote from respected Tampa blog DRaysBay:

I think I speak for the entire Tampa Bay community when I say, “Thank goodness that’s over.” Dioner Navarro seemed like he had so much promise when the Rays acquired him from the Dodgers back in 2006, and four and a half seasons later, he hasn’t lived up to any of it. His plate discipline all but disappeared (he used to clock in around a 10% walk rate), his power never developed, his defense never improved, and his attitude got surly when the Rays demoted him to the minors this season. Especially with the unexpected emergence of John Jaso this season, I’m very, very glad to see Navarro head out the door.

While I liked the idea of signing a former top prospect with one solid year under his belt to a “what the hell, let’s take a chance” contract, giving him a guaranteed major-league deal – all but assuring that A.J. Ellis would not have a legitimate chance to beat him out – seemed very foolish at the time, as I asked on February 20:

Put another way, he’s basically been on a downward trend ever since he got to Tampa, except for that one fluke year. There’s no better way to illustrate that than by doing so graphically, so here’s his BABIP and wOBA charts, courtesy of FanGraphs.

Well, look at that. Both metrics are on a pretty consistent downward path, with that one fluke year sticking out like a sore thumb. It makes me wonder what his career line, currently sitting at .249/.309/.356, would look like if his 2008 had followed the rest of his career path. His career batting average would likely be in the .230s, and his OBP would certainly be under .300. So basically, he’d be Rod Barajas (career BA/OBP of .239/.284), but without the power – i.e., the only thing which makes Barajas even slightly palatable. Obviously, you can’t ignore the fact that he did put up that 2008, but you also can’t ignore that he’s been underwhelming at best in every other year of his career and downright awful the last two seasons, which of course carry the most weight.

So tell me, why is it that Navarro has a $1m contract for 2011, while Ellis has bus rides around the PCL to look forward to? Because of that one good year? That fluke year also isn’t fooling the latest iteration of Baseball Prospectus‘ PECOTA projections, pegging Navarro for .243/.304/.336 and Ellis at .256/.364/.321. The numbers just don’t support it, and that’s without even questioning the off-field issues brought up by Navarro refusing to remain with the Rays in the playoffs last year after not making the roster. It’s also without bringing defense into the equation, as that’s notoriously hard to evaluate for catchers, though it should be noted that Ellis has a very good repuation, and the DRaysBay quote above wasn’t exactly glowing towards Navarro. (Update: after this went up, BP colleague and DockOfTheRays blogger Jason Collette added, “enjoy that hot mess behind the plate.” So there’s that.)

And, well, that’s exactly what happened, at least after he missed the first month of the season thanks to an oblique strain. Navarro’s batting average was south of .200 for basically the entire season, and that combined with indifferent defense had us calling for him to be gone by early June, when Navarro’s OPS had sunk to a lowly .483, with no indication he deserved a spot on the team. Even when he was good – two of his homers were the margin of victory in 1-0 wins – he was bad, as he had two throwing errors in the first three innings in the second of those games.

By August, the Dodgers agreed with what we’d all known for nearly a year and finally cut him loose, but even that wasn’t the end of it; as if lousy performance, a poor track record, and a previous clubhouse issue weren’t enough, the last straw was reportedly his lack of a sufficient work ethic, which is why the Dodgers took the highly unusual step of cutting him just a week before rosters expanded. Navarro still doesn’t turn 28 until next year, so he’s undoubtedly going to get another chance somewhere. This is now two strikes for him, however, without the on-field performance that can buy you a ‘get out of jail free’ card.

Good riddance, Dioner. I think it’s telling that no one bothered picking you up after you got cut. See you never.

A.J. Ellis (B)
.271/.392/.376 .769 2hr 0.5 WAR

I hate to say I told you so, but, well, just look at the February 20 quote from the Navarro section above. (Not that I was alone in such an assessment, of course.) Navarro ended up straining an oblique in March, so Ellis broke camp with the club, but got just four starts before being sent down when Navarro returned near the end of April – though don’t forget that we nearly saw him make his season debut as a pitcher when he began to warm in the bullpen as the Dodgers were getting smashed 10-0 by the Giants on April 2.

We were able to put up with the ensuing Barajas / Navarro pairing for about six weeks, until I could finally take no more on June 11:

I hardly need to link you to all of the posts I wrote over the winter saying that a catching duo of Rod Barajas and Dioner Navarro wasn’t going to work, right? Shockingly… it hasn’t worked. Over the last few weeks, they’ve been largely sharing the role, and they’ve combined to put up remarkably similar lines.

Last 30 days
Barajas: 61 PA .172/.200/.259 (.459) 2 doubles 1 homer 14/2 K/BB
Navarro: 60 PA .161/.203/.196 (.400) 2 doubles 0 homer 11/3 K/BB

Eerie, isn’t it? The only thing that’s giving Barajas any sort of boost in the SLG department is that one dinger, but if I’d waited a few more days then even that would have been outside the 30-day window; it came way back on May 13. What should really stand out there is not that the two catchers have been putting up the same numbers, but that each set of numbers is atrocious. It’s hardly just over the last month, because the season stats tell the same tale. The 35-year-old Barajas is hitting just .213/.251/.372, unable to match even his modest career line of .237/.282/.410. Navarro has been even worse, at .176/.233/.250, continuing his total career flameout since a quality 2008 in Tampa. Neither one ranks within the top 30 catchers by OPS (min. 70 PA); Navarro slots at 42nd of 44. By just about every offensive statistic other than home runs, the Dodgers have the worst hitting catchers in the National League, and their combined OBP of .264 is worse than every team in the majors except for the Twins, who have been without the injured Joe Mauer for much of the season.

Neither one has worked out, and it’s time to make a move. The answer is clear: DFA Navarro and recall A.J. Ellis. Ellis is no more likely to add power than Dee Gordon is, but he’s an absolute on-base machine. In parts of nine minor league seasons, his career OBP is .402; it’s been .400 or better for four seasons in a row and it hasn’t been below .380 since 2005. In 119 AAA PA this year, it’s at .470, and that’s what happens when you have a 8/23 K/BB ratio. That’s a number which would be insane, if not for the fact that he’s on the plus side of that ledger over his entire career (268/309). He’s seen bits of bit-league time over the last two years with injuries to Martin, Brad Ausmus, and Navarro, and in small sample sizes he’s managed to retain that skill – .371 OBP, 20/18 K/BB, in 147 2010-11 PA. Don’t forget, he was also the hottest Dodger hitter in Sept/Oct last year, hitting .417/.533/.500. There’s no question at all that Ellis is the superior option right now.

Eight days later, Ellis did return, but only because Barajas sprained his ankle; he received another 37 scattered plate appearances before sent down again upon Barajas’ recovery. As Navarro continued to struggle, we wondered yet again why Ellis was being kept down in August:

I’ve tried to stay away from the “why is guy X playing over guy Y”, since the day-to-day machinations in a lost season don’t really matter too much, particularly when there’s not a ton of great alternatives. But seriously, Dioner Navarro, after another 0-4 today (along with a throwing error), is now at .193/.276/.324. He’s had his chance to prove that his terrible last few years were the fluke, as opposed to his solid 2008. It hasn’t happened. Why exactly are we not seeing A.J. Ellis play every day for the last six weeks?

Two days later, Navarro was DFA’d, a cause for celebration, and Ellis joined the club for his third stint of the season, which paid off immediately when Ellis hit his first big-league home run (and first professional homer anywhere since 2008) as the Dodgers swept the Cardinals. (He would add his second on September 4.)

Sharing time with Barajas and Tim Federowicz over the last six weeks, Ellis hit .325/.426/.550 with roundly praised defense and pitch handling. That’s in addition to a .467 OBP in AAA this year, and since he’s now out of options, he’s all but cemented his place on the 2012 roster… until Ned Colletti signs Jason Varitek, that is.

Hector Gimenez (inc.)
(.143/.143/.143 .286 0hr -0.1 WAR)

“That picture of Hector seems odd,” you might be saying. “He’s wearing #79, not the #9 he had with the Dodgers, and they’re wearing their home whites, yet that photo was clearly not taken in Dodger Stadium.”

All true: this is a shot of Gimenez hitting during spring training in Arizona, i.e., the only time anyone ever gave a crap about Hector Gimenez. Or as I said during our midseason recap:

I would like to say something witty or insightful about Hector Gimenez, but that infers that I have absolutely any recollection of him as a Dodger whatsoever. Pass.

So pretend you have any memory of Gimenez’ seven glorious plate appearances as a Dodger (including one start!) before hurting his knee in April, and know that you are lying, because you do not. Shockingly, the camp darling who spent 2010 as a 27-year-old in AA didn’t work out, and while he had a decently okay season with Chattanooga after returning from injury, you’ll never hear of him again, because if you can’t make it in an organization that has as little catching depth as the Dodgers, well, you can’t make it period. Mark it.

Tim Federowicz (inc.)
(.154/.313/.154 .466 0hr 0.0 WAR)

You hated the Trayvon Robinson deal that brought Federowicz and two minor league pitchers to Los Angeles at the trading deadline, and so did I. That sentence, right there, is the burden that Tim Federowicz has to deal with. It’s not enough for him to be a quality major leaguer, as though that isn’t difficult enough. He also has to outshine what Robinson does in Seattle, and with Trayvon filling up highlight reels with diving catches in his short time in the bigs, Federowicz starts at a disadvantage. It might not be fair, but it is the truth.

He received only 16 plate appearances in a September cameo, so we learned little about him there, but I’ve seen a lot of people making a big deal of the fact that after he hit .277/.338/.407 for Boston’s AA club, he kicked that up to .325/.431/.627 for the Dodgers in AAA, and the fact that I apparently still need to issue the standard disclaimer is disappointing. But since I do: five of his six AAA homers and a .409/.519/.841 line came in 13 home games, and one homer and a .231/.333/.385 line came in 12 road games. Neither of those are particularly large sample sizes, but again, he’s hardly the first to show ridiculous splits in New Mexico, so take the overall AAA line with a grain of salt approximately the size of Juan Uribe.

So despite the glowing reports about his defense, we’ll expect to see Federowicz starting 2012 back in AAA, with Ellis and [insert Rod Barajas or vaguely-Rod-Barajas-esque-veteran-catcher #X82 here] manning the dish for the big club. Federowicz will hit something like .320/.430/.500 for the Isotopes, because that’s practically league-average in the PCL, and everyone will get excited. Once again, the disclaimer will come out.

******

Next! James Loney‘s wild ride! It’s first base!

Season Reviews Start Tomorrow

October 2, 2011 at 3:05 pm | Posted in 2011 in Review | 13 Comments

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but tomorrow, we’re starting Year Five of the annual season reviews. This has been going on for long enough that the first one I did, 2007 catchers, featured Russell Martin, Mike Lieberthal, and Chad Moeller – and I couldn’t even find a picture of Moeller as a Dodger.

Anyway, it’s always a fun look back not only on how a player performed, but on what our perception was of them at the time, which I why I always try to quote liberally from previous posts. It’s often amazing to remember what you thought of a player in May as opposed to the end of the season – or in some cases, how you feel exactly the same. (It’s also an absolutely fantastic way to fill time while the playoffs are going on, since arbitration decisions don’t even need to be made until December 12, more than two months from now.) I’ll review every player, a decision I’ll regret just about immediately when I have to come up with something to say about Hector Gimenez.

As always, a word up front about the grading scale. The letter grades I hand out are entirely subjective, and most importantly, they’re based on what our preseason expectations were of the player, not based on comparing him to his peers. For example, Aaron Miles is going to get a higher grade than Andre Ethier, simply because Miles outperformed his subterranean expectations while Ethier’s season was something of a disappointment. Does the higher grade mean I think Miles is a better player than Ethier? Absolutely not, but that’s something I hear every year.

Also, a fun part of this every year, at least for me, is taking old Topps cards from my youth and creating one for each player reviewed, examples of which you can see below. (Thanks again to M.Brown of the LFP for help with the 1989 template, and be sure to check out and participate in his blog charity softball game.) What year will we be using this time around? Be sure to come back and find out.

Maybe Don’t Get Your Hopes Up For Matt Kemp Winning the MVP

October 1, 2011 at 9:06 am | Posted in Matt Kemp | 43 Comments

…at least if the majority of voters are thinking like Buster Olney of ESPN, Jon Heyman & Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated, and others…

Olney:

For his work, and for his importance to the Brewers’ success, Braun should be the NL MVP; Matt Kemp had a spectacular season for the Dodgers, but Los Angeles — hampered by ownership issues and the team’s inability to spend on needed improvements last offseason — never contended this year.

Heyman, making a great case for Kemp:

3. Matt Kemp, Dodgers. He came close to the Triple Crown, leading the league with 39 home runs and 126 RBIs while falling 13 points short with his .324 batting average despite playing in a pitchers’ park with virtually no lineup protection (he was intentionally walked 24 times). Throw in 40 stolen bases in 51 attempts plus above average defense in centerfield and it’s fair to say he was the league’s best player. But the question will be: How much better was he than Braun and Fielder?

Verducci:

Kemp has put up a monster season with MVP numbers, leading the league in WAR, runs, total bases, home runs and RBIs. But his team, the Dodgers, didn’t play a meaningful game for the last two-thirds of the season. Los Angeles was nine games out by the middle of June.

And this business that Kemp had no help in the lineup? Baloney. Kemp batted with 87 more runners on base than did Braun. Kemp had 24 more plate appearances with runners in scoring position — and Braun was the better hitter in those spots (.347-.327). The seasons of Kemp and Braun are too close not to give it to the guy who delivered the most value in terms of context.

Dave Sheinin, Washington Post (who didn’t even pick Kemp in the top three on 9/22):

Matt Kemp is to the NL what Jose Bautista was to the AL — the undisputed best everyday player in the league. But while Kemp still has a shot at the Triple Crown, his Dodgers didn’t play a single meaningful game in the second half. And I’m sorry, but that speaks to a player’s relative value — as long as we understand winning championships to be the ultimate goal. And so, in an otherwise wide-open field, it is Braun who stands out, putting up what must be one of the quietest 30-30 seasons (home runs and stolen bases) in history. As of this writing, he was also second behind Kemp in WAR and first in slugging percentage, OPS and runs scored. Upton, meantime, wins the narrative prize: He has almost singlehandedly carried the surprising D’backs to the NL West title. He has a 145 OPS+; no one else in Arizona’s lineup goes higher than 122.

Jayson Stark, ESPN:

So that brings me to Braun. He could wind up leading the league in hitting, slugging, OPS and extra-base hits. He’s going to land in the top five in runs, total bases, on-base percentage, RBIs, doubles and average with men in scoring position. And he’s tossed in 30-30 club bonus points for our voting enjoyment. When you add it all together, what do you get? An incredible offensive season. That’s what. How many guys hit .335, slug .601, and go 30-30 in the same season? The only two players who have done it are Larry Walker and Ellis Burks, both of whom pulled it off for the pre-humidor Rockies. So don’t try to tell us Braun’s year pales against Kemp’s, OK?

FanGraphs tells us he’s hit better than Kemp, been a more productive baserunner than Kemp and actually compiled a better ultimate zone rating in the outfield than Kemp. So a big chunk of the reason Kemp leads him in wins above replacement is an adjustment for the importance of the positions they play. I understand that thinking. And I understand that Braun has Prince Fielder hitting behind him. But I also understand this: Kemp’s team basically got eliminated from any kind of contention by Father’s Day. So if I’m looking at two players who have had very, very, very similar seasons — and one of them has done what he’s done in an atmosphere where every single game mattered — that’s a difference-making ingredient for me. That’s how I define “valuable.” So that’s how I’ll vote. But I finally did figure out why that beam of light never arrived with the right answer. Because in this debate, there’s no wrong answer. Just different opinions.

Tracy Ringolsby, Fox Sports:

3. Matt Kemp, center fielder, Los Angeles. His Triple Crown bid was intriguing, but the Dodgers were never a factor in the NL West, and it is the Most Valuable Player, not the Player of the Year. Ted Williams actually won two Triple Crowns and didn’t win an MVP either time.

Now, we know the “Dodgers didn’t play any meaningful games” is a complete fallacy; looking at it from the other direction, we also know that the Brewers were up by as much as 10.5 games in early September and probably still win the division without Braun simply based on Fielder, the strength of their starting rotation, and the weak NL Central. It’s hard to say that makes him the “most valuable”, particularly, as someone asked me on Twitter, when Fielder is in the top three conversation as well, because how can Braun be so valuable if Fielder is also that valuable too?

To be fair, I have cherry-picked the above quotes, because Keith Law of ESPN, Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com, Anthony Witrado of The Sporting News, Tyler Kepner of the New York Times, and even Pirates pitcher Paul Maholm – among many others – have come out in support of Kemp. And like I’ve said before, Braun did have a fantastic season, so there’s no shame in coming in second to him, which is what I believe will happen. It’d just be nice if the voters could focus on what happened between the lines – if you honestly believe Braun was better, fine – and not on the things that the players have no control over, like having Fielder, Rickie Weeks, & Corey Hart helping your team win rather than James Loney, Aaron Miles, and Tony Gwynn.