Juan Rivera Turned One Good Month Into $4.5m
November 3, 2011 at 6:48 am | Posted in Juan Rivera | 98 Comments
Not to break up all the fun over the search for a new Dodger owner, but that’s unlikely to be resolved for months and there’s still baseball business at hand. Remember the other day when word came out that Juan Rivera was likely to sign a $4m contract for 2012 with a club option for 2013, and we were all a bit less than thrilled with that?
The Los Angeles Dodgers have agreed to a one-year, $4.5 million contract with outfielder Juan Rivera, major-league sources told FOXSports.com.
The deal, which is pending a physical exam, will pay Rivera a $4 million base salary during the 2012 season. It includes a $4 million club option for 2013 (with a $500,000 buyout) and $500,000 in performance bonuses each year, one source said.
Oh, good. As though just giving him $4m wasn’t enough of an overpay, now it’s $4.5m guaranteed (including the option buyout) and the potential for $5m with performance incentives. Let’s not forget that Rivera made $5.25m with Toronto last year and was so bad that they flat out DFA’d him in July; I wish I knew of some sort of database that would allow me to query for “most money made in the season following a DFA”, because this has to be up there.
While I’ve said that I’m okay with Rivera on this club as a OF/1B platoon bat against lefties, no one pays that much for someone to be a backup. That means that Rivera is almost certainly going to be your starting left fielder, and that pushes Jerry Sands to AAA unless there’s an unlikely Andre Ethier trade in the works. That’s a guy who didn’t even make Keith Law’s top 50 free agents list and who had a total 2011 OPS of .701, worse than Jamey Carroll and Casey Blake‘s marks last year. While it’s true that he was far better with the Dodgers than he was in Toronto, that’s hardly a high barrier to clear, and it appears that once again, the Dodgers have been sucked in by a favorable first impression that the new aquisition was unable to maintain. (Yes, I’m looking at you, Rod Barajas.)
Rivera’s first 31 games with Dodgers
115 PA .327/.365/.481 .846 OPS .364 BABIP
Rivera’s second 31 games with Dodgers
131 PA .226/.305/.339 .664 OPS .240 BABIP
His true talent level is probably somewhere in between, but unfortunately that’s not what you want from a starting corner outfielder or someone you’re paying nearly $5m to. Did anyone really think that you absolutely had to lock up Rivera during the exclusive negotiating period before a line of other teams drove dump trucks full of cash to his house? There’s this narrative going around that Rivera was some sort of “savior” or “RBI machine”, and while his contributions were welcomed, the facts just don’t fit that story.
As Eric Stephen rightly points out, Rivera’s 2011 profiles very similarly to Marcus Thames‘ 2010 – after which Thames was signed for only $1m – and we can see how well that turned out. Perhaps if Roch Kubatko’s completely unsubstantiated and never going to happen report that the Orioles would have interest in Ned Colletti is true, we can make them take Rivera (…and Matt Guerrier, and Juan Uribe) as compensation?
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Manny Ramirez, Ted Lilly, Rod Barajas, and now Juan Rivera. All turned impressive showings after being traded to the Dodgers into over-valued contracts. That’s my biggest problem with Colletti – he doesn’t LEARN from his mistakes. He just keeps making them over and over again.
Comment by Doppel— November 3, 2011 #
Yes, those were all mistakes, but Andruw, Schmidt, Pierre, Uribe, Guerrier,et al were bigger ones on the ever growing list of Colletti head scratchers.
Comment by SamAdams— November 3, 2011 #
I thought the idea was to make the Dodgers more inviting for prospective buyers.
Comment by Rory— November 3, 2011 #
My point was that Colletti has a history of rewarding late-season acquisitions that perform well over a short period of time with over-valued contracts! It’s a mistake he repeats on a nearly ANNUAL basis. True, Pierre, Schmidt, Jones, etc. all were worse deals and hamstrung the team more, but I’m just illustrating the point that Colletti doesn’t LEARN from his mistakes. He just keeps making them! We all make mistakes, but if we don’t learn from them, we don’t make progress. Colletti started out as a moron and is destined to remain one.
Comment by Doppel— November 3, 2011 #
Both lists are examples of Colletti not learning from his mistakes. You can also make a 3rd list of players with obvious medical concerns (Schmidt makes 2 lists!) signed as if they were fully healthy – Schmidt, Garland, Padilla, Nomar. Ned just keeps plugging away, while the guys he had little to do with keep carrying the team.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— November 3, 2011 #
Im not defending him, he sucks as our GM, but I dont think Jason Schmidt was on Ned.
Comment by TC— November 3, 2011 #
How is Jason Schmidt NOT on Ned? Ned knew before he signed him that he had a tear in his shoulder and that his velocity was WAY down the previous year, and he gave him a contract for nearly $50million.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— November 3, 2011 #
Don’t forget Bill Mueller who Nedetti threw $4.5M at for about 125 plate appearances in 2006. He was hurt when he showed up for spring training that year.
Comment by SamAdams— November 3, 2011 #
Not sure Padilla was his fault and really not a bad flyer for 2 million if it had worked out…but the others, yeah the point is made.
Comment by Jon#7#22— November 3, 2011 #
Wow, that’s terrible.
Comment by Jon#7#22— November 3, 2011 #
Among Neds’ many short comings is the he suffers from Marlon Anderson syndrome. Look it up!! It turns lucky lo cost signings into second year overpayment disasters. At least he’s consistant.
Comment by DaveS— November 3, 2011 #
That’s what I’m talking about. He trusts his eyes and small sample sizes instead of scouting reports and statistics. Class-A moron.
Comment by Doppel— November 3, 2011 #
Nah, Ned’s gotta be at least AAA-level or even a major-league moron.
Comment by Eric Alegado— November 3, 2011 #
hall of fame moron?
Comment by sumdumfu— November 3, 2011 #
This is craptacular.
Comment by TravisB— November 3, 2011 #
I guess I have to look at it this way: Ethier’s a lefty and Loney’s a lefty and both have pretty extreme splits. Rivera still mashes lefties, and we need corner outfield/1B depth. We don’t know how Sands is going to do next year, and some insurance can’t hurt.
MLB has probably approved a nominal amount to be spent on salaries this year, but I’m guessing they’re not going to approve massive long-term deals, so we have to find guys who can help us on short contracts. Take a look at the free agents list and tell me another corner OFer we could have gotten on a one-year, $5M deal without having to give up a draft pick. I’m not going to get up in arms about this signing. He’s probably being overpaid by a million or two, but he’s still a valuable player who has a role on this team.
Comment by Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw— November 3, 2011 #
He was bad for almost all of 2011, other than one good month. I’m just not sold on how valuable he is.
Comment by Mike— November 3, 2011 #
“Take a look at the free agents list and tell me another corner OFer we could have gotten on a one-year, $5M deal without having to give up a draft pick”
I can see quite a few, and you argue that there’s no one else we could get for $5M then acknoledge that Rivera is overpaid? Huh?
Comment by Brandon— November 3, 2011 #
Cody Ross, Jonny Gomes, and Scott Hairston would be a few of the superior options who would also be cheaper than 5 mill.
Comment by Table— November 3, 2011 #
Ross will get more than $5 million. Gomes and Hairston are worse than Rivera ( but not on a per $ basis ).
Comment by a— November 3, 2011 #
I bet we could have had Grady Sizemore for a 1 yr $5M deal.
Comment by Shane— November 3, 2011 #
I think he probably will get more than that, and he’s super risky.
Comment by Mike— November 3, 2011 #
Trayvon and Sands
Comment by DodgersKings323— November 4, 2011 #
It’s almost as though Ned wakes up every morning and says “What will piss off MSTI the most? That’s what I’ll do!”
Comment by Brian Stuart— November 3, 2011 #
The worst part is Sands wont have a full time position. Id like to see what he can do. Id bet Sands would put up better numbers at $4 million less.
Please Ned, go away!
Comment by TC— November 3, 2011 #
Ugh…This all but guarantees a Loney return too, I imagine. Platoon partners at 1B. And if Rivera was able to finagle $4.5mm for 2 good months, imagine what Loney can get for 4 good months!
I can’t wait for Colletti to do all of his horrible over-payments and then complain that Dave Stewart is being unreasonable.
Comment by SV Narine— November 3, 2011 #
and then complain that Dave Stewart is being unreasonable.
HA! I hope not though, he should be gone by then.
Comment by DodgersKings323— November 4, 2011 #
I love the last sentence about the compensation–wasn’t expecting that punchline :)
Anyways, maybe I am jaded but hasn’t Ned been overpaying a few part time players he sees as crucial to how the team underperformed the year before for a while now?
I looked at the free agents and the best alternative i could come up with was Jonny Gomes…who might have still tried to double his paycheck from last year of 2million. I don’t know how much the extra defense Rivera brings over Thames is worth to the dodgers FO, but to me saving 3-4mil for the team and cringing as i see a ball hit to marcus thames is at least in the ballpark of being worth it.
anyways, how is jonny gomes defense for ~2million?
Comment by Dusty Baker's Toothpick— November 3, 2011 #
I know this is a harken to the Barajas article of last year, but at least Rivera has a track record of being DECENT. Barajas, except for his first two weeks as a Dodger, was almost always an awful hitter. And hell…ONE of these reclamation projects has to work out for Ned sometime, right? Uh, right?
Comment by SamL— November 3, 2011 #
Totally agree, Sam, but the bar is so much higher in the corner outfield. Barajas could be awful and still be basically an average catcher – Rivera doesn’t have that luxury.
Comment by Mike— November 3, 2011 #
Thats symantics Mike. Rivera deserves every cent on this contract, and I dont care what anyone says. were talking about a 1-2 million dollar difference in what your saying he should be payed and what he got from the Dodgers. who cares. he was great last year for us. He gave us what we really needed badly, lineup protection for KeMvP. you cant out him in the same discussion as Big Rod, or the other bums that stunk up left field before Rivera was acquired. If the Dodgers dont feel Sands is ready then I am fine with rivera playing. I dont care. if he fails so what, then buy him out at the end of the year, and we have Sands ready to come up and play anyways. without his solid bat, we dont have a winning second half. sorry but that deserves at least a roster spot. if he fails then he fails, 4 million dollars isnt much in baseball these days. you can slice up his stats anyway you want, but he deserves a chance to play next year.
Comment by format— November 3, 2011 #
Well, that’s not totally true. If you’re referring to me saying 2-3m yesterday, that’s what I was guessing he’d get – not what I would have paid. I would have said $1m guaranteed, some incentives, or we’ll move on.
I’m not suggesting he doesn’t deserve a roster spot. Just not at that salary, and not as a starter. I still don’t understand your theory of “lineup protection” for Kemp. Was Kemp not having a ridiculous year before Rivera arrived?
Comment by Mike— November 3, 2011 #
I would agree that his value would be better served as a bench corner lefty masher, but Im fine with him starting if Sands isnt ready to go for 2012. Yes of coarse KeMvP still was and is wonderfully awsome. But with a decent bat behind him, we saw the offense improve alot. Rivera’s solid bat was a big part of that. over the last 22 game stretch of the season, Rivera had 9 yes 9 multi hit games. I dont like Colletti either but I dont think every single move he makes is bad. I guess were talking about 2-3 million of overpayment for a guy who deserves to have a shot next year. Theres more pressing issues to be concerned with I think.
Comment by format— November 3, 2011 #
But that’s just not true. Look at Rivera’s splits in this very post. He was awful over the end of August and all of September.
Comment by Mike— November 3, 2011 #
Another thing to keep in mind: the lack of quality free agent options. JUAN PIERRE is a Type B free agent in this market, so you know it’s awful.
Comment by SamL— November 3, 2011 #
Well the quality of the class doesn’t have much to do with Pierre’s type B status, but yes it’s a crappy class. Still, that doesn’t mean we need to let the market play us. No one else in the big leagues would’ve given Rivera $4 million. So why are we bidding against ourselves and shelling out $5 million?
Comment by Brandon— November 3, 2011 #
he wasnt awful, but the way you split up his stats makes it look like he was awful. He still had 9 multi hit games over his last 22 games. Thats not awful. overall he was very solid.
Comment by format— November 3, 2011 #
Yeah it sounded smarter when I thought of it in my head. Although there’s SOME correlation; I know that FA type is based on overall performance among same-position players over the last 2 years, but it does have something to do with the level of the FA market and how players stack up with each other. For example, Pierre is a Type B free agent this offseason, but he definitely wouldn’t have been in, say, the 2007 offseason (which featured Torii Hunter, Ichiro Suzuki, Aaron Rowand coming off his contract year, and other quality OF options) had he posted the same numbers.
Comment by SamL— November 3, 2011 #
I believe Type A and B status is based on performance vs. the rest of the league at that position group (for Pierre, OF, 1B, DH). Not just other free agents.
Comment by Brandon— November 3, 2011 #
“without his solid bat, we dont have a winning second half. sorry but that deserves at least a roster spot.”
Why should past performance earn someone a roster spot? Shouldn’t we give those out based on what we can expect from players in the future? And what says more about what Rivera will contribute in the future, one good month, or two bad years?
Comment by Bip— November 3, 2011 #
I think you just like to argue, you complain about every little thing MAttingly does and care about games at the end of a lost season then guess what? These few million here and there add up and lead to what we get on the field……..which is more losing.
Comment by DodgersKings323— November 4, 2011 #
Also: with Rivera, there’s a good chance that he’ll be at least decent. We all knew that Barajas was probably going to be terrible. I get that position matters, but hell, I’m okay with him repeating his .274/.333/.406 line as a platoon 1B/OF. $4.5 million for one year isn’t THAT bad; if Rivera played the infield he would have gotten a nine-year deal for $150 million,
Comment by SamL— November 3, 2011 #
Lets stop giving Rivera credit for the turn around. Yes he played, which was an improvement over Thames, BUT it was Loney that saved us from a 70-92 season. He is the guy who got hot, not Rivera. Then there was Dee Gordon’s surge and Sands’ hitting streak. Not to mention that credit we were giving to Hansen for the turnaround. Rivera was pretty much average and saved us from playing Loney against lefties. So lets just stop with the “Rivera saved the Dodgers and was the reason for the turnaround” crap.
Comment by Bob— November 3, 2011 #
+1
Comment by Mike— November 3, 2011 #
the reality is not as simple as Bob’s comment implies. His post does not deserve a +1 unless the scale goes higher.
We were 41-51 when Rivera arrived then went 16-18 through August 21 when we started winning. Rivera hit 327 in the 16-18 period while Loney hit 197 in the 16-17 period ending 1 game earlier. Loney went 4-4 in the next game (obviously a loss) amazing everyone. Then we got hot. Rivera helped to stabilize things and turn a 446 club into one that started to look like a 500 club. Then Loney started to hit. The Dodgers went 25-10 the rest of the way, Loney hit 388 after August 20, Rivera hit 226 after August 21.
Kemp was in a slump when Rivera arrived right after the All-Star break. Kemp had hit 253 with 2 HR from June 15 to July 10. At the time, it seemed as if Rivera batting 5th was helping Matt as, again, Rivera hit 327 in the first 34 games and Kemp hit 343.
Comment by a— November 3, 2011 #
+1 and cause they were good for 1 month doesn’t mean they will be good for 6 next season, players go up and down and get a year older so in the end they end at their career average or lower.
Comment by DodgersKings323— November 4, 2011 #
But that’s just it. Even ignoring the fact that he probably will be worse than .274/.333/.406, that still isn’t so great from a corner outfielder/1B. Loney can hit that, and we’ve been complaining about his lack of production at 1B for a while. We’ve got to get a major offensive upgrade somewhere, and the place where that is most likely to happen seems like 1B or LF. That doesn’t leave space for Rivera. We can start conceding positions where we’ll be below league average once we’ve got more positions where we’re above league average.
Comment by Bip— November 3, 2011 #
Typical, typical Uncle Ned.
Comment by Gregory Zakwin— November 3, 2011 #
This could be Neds last act. One can dream, cant they? I highly doubt LAD will be players at the winter meetings.
Comment by Lame Duck Ned— November 3, 2011 #
Mike, time to make “the colleted sins of Ned Colletti” and leave up the link until he gets fired.
Comment by Brandon— November 3, 2011 #
You could fill encyclopedias with The Collected Sins Of Ned Colletti.
Comment by SamL— November 3, 2011 #
I’ve thought about that, but always held back because while Colletti’s bad at his job, at least his heart’s in the right place. I have no qualms with Ned Colletti, human being. Can’t say that about McCourt.
Comment by Mike— November 3, 2011 #
+1
Comment by jaydavis— November 3, 2011 #
What really peeves me is that this is another replay of 2007 when the Dodgers had 2 young kids in Kemp and Ethier and Ned wasn’t willing to even platoon them. He brought in Gonzo to take over the 3rd outfield spot until it was painfully obvious he couldn’t perform. I don’t know if Sands is going to be successful but he’s not going to learn anything more in AAA. 4.5Mil to Rivera is a clear sign he’s going have serious playing time
Fact: Rivera=4Mil, Guerrier=4.5Mil, Uribe=8Mil this year = 16.5Mil or roughly what Fielder will get in year 1 of a LT deal. Add in Lilly and it gets even more fun. I get not wanting to put all your eggs in one basket, but putting rotten eggs in 3 baskets does not make for a better team.
Comment by saeldway— November 3, 2011 #
More fun reading.
“Juan Rivera Hits Paydirt, But Why?”
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/juan-rivera-hits-paydirt-but-why/
Comment by Mike— November 3, 2011 #
He was productive over a short amount of time. The guy can still mash
Comment by format— November 3, 2011 #
Would like your opinion on this:
@HardballTalk: Impatient Colletti flushes at least $2 mil down toilet http://dlvr.it/tYMM6
Comment by Mike— November 3, 2011 #
Interesting read Mike. While I wouldnt put Rivera with guys like Gomes and Andruw Jones, I think Rivera is much better than those guys, I still can see your point. 4.5 Mil is a bit much for him, that I agree with you on. but I just dont think its that big of a deal. First Rivera was very productive. His productive bat was a huge reason the Dodgers had a winning second half. that alone should secure him a roster spot. IM not saying he should start, I would like him better off the bench, but Im willing to give him a few weeks to see how he does. If he struggles, then stick him back on the bench only to play against lefties, and play Sands against righties. Another point is this has always been Colletti’s M.O. of overpaying for players. its not suprising. We just have to accept that thats what Ned does. I think if Rivera stays healthy he could be a guy who smacks 20 homers, bats .270 and knocks in around 80-90 runs. not bad production at all. but as far as complaining about him getting 2 million more than hes really worth? Understandable, but lets not make a big deal of it, we have other stuff more pressing to worry about
Comment by format— November 3, 2011 #
This is my problem with the deal. I like the idea of bringing him back, but not for double what we could’ve had him for. Not only is he overpaid, but at that cost, he’s going to start, forcing Sands to the bench or Triple A.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— November 3, 2011 #
Maybe Colletti is just too impatient? maybe he thinks that if he doesnt act fast and offer double the players worth, that some other team will outbid him? I dont know. I would like to see Sands play too, but most players these days are overpaid anyways. over paying for Andruw Jones is worth complaining about, overpaying for Rivera? not so much
Comment by format— November 3, 2011 #
You’re right, it’s just frustrating because Ned does it EVERY time, and dollars are still scarce. I guess we should be used to it by now.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— November 3, 2011 #
This might be his last year Dave, I have a feeling when the new owners or owner take over, hes gonna get the axe
Comment by format— November 3, 2011 #
This really upsets me. I wanted Jerry Sands in LF next year.
Comment by Jim— November 3, 2011 #
Im not really concerned about salary in a sport without a salary cap. I won’t pass judgement until other outfielders are signed to deals. I remember people really wanting Adam Dunn around here last year. You just dont know sometimes how these deals work out. Is Rivera overpaid, it’s hard to say right now.
Comment by Juan Pierre— November 3, 2011 #
Signing Rivera must be part of Ned’s master plan to move Sands to 3B. LOL
If Rivera has any no trade clause then this price is moronic.
Comment by Ken— November 3, 2011 #
Eh, let’s be realistic here. We were not actually going to sign Fielder, Pujols or even Ramirez this offseason. Those are our armchair GM plans, but they weren’t what was going to happen in actuality.
I don’t really believe we are legitimately capable of competing for the Series next year. 2013 though? We’re talking less dead money, new owner, new GM, seasoning on Gordon and Sands, RDLR back, etc. 2013 is the year we should really be focusing on.
This was a one year deal that all but assures Colletti is not looking at doing any big time deals. That saves us some money to lock up Kemp/Kershaw AND ensures our 2013 team will not be laboring under any additionally onerous contracts done up before the new sheriffs came to town. I see this as a good thing.
Comment by Joshua Maxson— November 3, 2011 #
Thursday on the Petros and Mpney show 3:00 hour on KLAC the new Dodger station, Bill Shaikin of the Times was on.
Most interesting comments were that he said in the past – before the Texas Ranger sale – the club sales procedure was usually Selig playing “kingmaker”, bringing together a buyer he recruited with an owner and then helping with the negotiation process.
The Texas Ranger deal was somewhat of an auction decreed by the courts. and the Dodger sale would be similar. Shaikin said his understanding of the Dodger process would be that Selig and the owners would get to approve a slate of prospective bidders and that those bidders would enter into an auction from which McCourt would get to decide the winner.
Shaikin has provided some good scoops and then some that were not very good. I would like to see some “official” statements from the courts as to the process which might further our understanding.
Comment by Kirk Davenport— November 3, 2011 #
correction – Petros and Money Show KLAC 570 AM Los Angeles
Comment by Kirk Davenport— November 3, 2011 #
Biggest head-scratcher yet. A little patience and he could have been signed for $1mil plus incentives. So one of three things is happening- either they’re overpaying him to be a 4th outfielder/pinch-hitter (which is probably my favorite sceario) or Sands is headed back to AAA (or worse yet, riding the bench), or- what I suspect is actually happening- Ethier’s on his way out of town.
Comment by dave soyars— November 3, 2011 #
Msti or dodger fans how about trading ethier for lomo and bonifacio from fla?then sign crisp put him in cf with kemp in rf and emilio at 2b..can morrison play 1b and jerry play 3b?
Comment by Pete guerrero— November 3, 2011 #
Interesting thought, but the Marlins won’t want expensive players like Ethier. And Sands can’t play 3b.
Comment by Mike— November 3, 2011 #
The rumors (especially from MLB Trade Rumors)) have Florida mainly looking outside only for starting pitching – any other needs they feel can be dealt with internally. Reports are they are interested in Wilson or Jackson on the FA market.
I would rather have Kemp in RF, but especially now he has won his second Gold glove in CF, you are very unlikely to convince him to move and I do not see anyone in the Dodgers who would want to rock that boat.
Comment by Kirk Davenport— November 3, 2011 #
When has a player ever had the power to say no to a position change? Alfonso Soriano and Michale Young made a fuss about it in the past, but they didn’t have a choice and it all worked out in the end. Kemp and Either simply moving to a different spot in the outfield should not be a big deal.
Comment by Table— November 3, 2011 #
If Kemp was under a long term contract like Young and Soriano were, I’d agree with you. But forcing a player to change positions while also trying to lock him up for the future might not be a good idea.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— November 4, 2011 #
Soriano was not in fact locked up, but I understand your reasoning.
Comment by Table— November 4, 2011 #
I’d be very, very surprised if the Marlins made a serious bid for Wilson, or even Jackson. They just don’t spend that kind of money. BUT… if they’re looking to move LoMo, and want cheap, young, high ceiling pitching in return… That’s the one area the Dodgers farm system is well stocked, though I think it’s more reliever types than starters.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— November 4, 2011 #
Remember signings like this when the Dodgers can’t sign Kemp and or Kershaw. Money wasted on bit parts could always be put to better use.
Comment by Deuce— November 3, 2011 #
The sky is not falling because of $4.5 million. If anything, this may be a sign that the Dodgers have money to spend (or at least a mandate to spend it).
Comment by Casey— November 3, 2011 #
I don’t see how it implies that at all, and just because you have money to spend doesn’t mean you need to spend it unwisely.
Comment by Brandon— November 3, 2011 #
While I do think Ned plays a role in who makes the roster out of spring training I think the manager decides who starts. If Sands hits in March he will make the roster. If you want something to worry about, Sands is hitting 220/304/400 in 50 AB’s in the DR.
Comment by a— November 3, 2011 #
Ned Colletti can’t be replaced soon enough.
Comment by grabarkewitz— November 3, 2011 #
The only good thing about this contract is that It’s for only 1 year, so it won’t restrict the new GM whom should be in place by 2013.
Comment by Table— November 3, 2011 #
Unless Ned picks up the option first! It’ll be like an outgoing President signing pardons for his cronies on his final day in office.
Comment by Mike— November 3, 2011 #
Classic Ned signing: Over pay for shite, block the young from playing. Does NC really tthink this move will save his job??? Hopefully this will be NC last signing of anykind.
Comment by jaydavis— November 3, 2011 #
Like the player, hate the contract. That what it really boils down to for me. I don’t quite see how the sky is falling from this, or how sands is doomed to triple A forever. All Sands has to do is hit and he will take a job from somebody, quite possibly just as likely to be Ethier or Loney as it is to be Rivera. And If Sands doesn’t hit, well Rivera is a decent insurance plan. Injuries happen, ineffectiveness happens, and it’s not a bad thing to have depth at the beginning of the season. It’s not like were talking about a player with a 15-20 Mil contract blocking the way. In the grand scheme Rivera is not really THAT big of a roadblock, even with a 4.5M commitment. I do see Rivera as a potential big part of a playoff team as a lefty masher off the bench, and Hopefully he will be pushed into that roll by the deadline by the acquisition of a big middle of the order Bat at one of those 3 corners, Sands at another, and whichever of Ethier and Loney is able to bounce back next year (I’ve got hope that at least 1 out of those two will put up a mid 800′s OPS next year, but probably not both) with the other one on the bench/shipped out.
Overall The signing gets a resounding “meh.” from me. Maybe a “Meh Minus” because of the total dollars, but Were kinda splitting hairs here, as we can all agree that he was only overpaid by 2-3 million dollars, in the grand scheme its not nearly as bad of an overpayment as what Ned has been handing out recently, and this signing is no where near as terrifying as if Ned had thrown 20M and 3 years at someone only marginally (or not) better from the FA market… Would anyone fell better if ned had given Jason Kubel a 3-4 year contract at 7-8M a year? What about his ex-giant obsession, anyone think they would be freaking out less right now if it was 2 or 3 years of pat Burrell that ned just locked us into? Anyone dying to put up with 3 years of Xavier Nady, Cody Ross, or Ryan Ludwick? If anything this move saved Ned (or us) from himself and prevents him from handing out another Uribe contract. I don’t care what Ned is doing this offseason as long as it’s on 1 year contracts, get me back Kuroda, and maybe bring in (or back) a middle infielder at no more than what you gave Rivera and Don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out Ned, and I swear to god if you hand out a multi year contract to ANY of the FA infielders out there I’ll lose it! (most of whom I wouldn‘t mind for 1 year, but who I‘m utterly terrified Ned will throw Uribe money at).
But this Rivera deal is not even close to an Uribe Level blunder, so I just cant get that worked up over it. If Rivera can produce anywhere close to his career line of 277/327/449 in no more than 200-300 at bats in 2012 I’ll be satisfied that he earned the majority of his money and wont lose any sleep over the contract…
Comment by CarolinaBlues— November 3, 2011 #
Great analysis. Best thing about Rivera deal is he can play both 1st and outfield.
Comment by Louis Rasky— November 3, 2011 #
Cool, so go throw some $100 bills out on the street.
Comment by DodgersKings323— November 4, 2011 #
After reading all 84 posts on this, I agree with those that think this is just another symptom of what is wrong with Dodger signings the last few years. This guy is going to be 34, roids aren’t available to him so his numbers won’t likely go up, he was DFA’d by his “parent” club and landed in a good situation for him and did… eh. His OPS+ last year was at league average and his sOPS+ was below league average. Is the league average pay for a 95 sOPS+ $4.5 million? If so, then this is an average signing. I happen to think the Dodgers should be able to do better, but, maybe under the current circumstances they can’t. Until there is new ownership, it is more than likely agents are telling their clients to look elsewhere. An old high school buddy of mine has a son that is an agent and without details he said the Dodger brand ain’t what it usta was. I believe him.
.
Patience. It isn’t going to happen next year. We are marking time until a change of command is in place.
Comment by Rory— November 4, 2011 #
Fangraphs has set the Dodgers at 30-1 odds for the 2012 World Series – 16th place in MLB
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/odds-for-2012-world-series-converted-to-projections/
With the current conditions and chance that there will not be many good players acquired, do any of you even think that #16 is achievable?
Comment by Kirk Davenport— November 4, 2011 #
Based on how they finished the season, and all the deadweight cut out mid season, and assuming a regression to the mean for Uribe, I think middle of the pack sounds just about exactly right.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— November 4, 2011 #
Following the MYSTI post of a couple of weeks ago about cutting the players who are giving the team negative WAR at bats – giving away at bats to terrible players…
Fangraphs is making a case for not buying a Pujols (or Fielder) an instead more cheaply upgrading two or more other positions can increase the team’s overall WAR and therefore be better off without the “big bat”
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/an-alternative-to-pujols-in-st-louis/
Using the Cardinals as an example, their premise is that replacing Pujol’s 6.0 WAR with Berkman at 4.0 and then upgrading 2B and SS by 2.0 WAR each, the net WAR for the team is actually higher than with Pujols and the two upgrades were cheaper than Pujols.
Following that with the Dodgers, by leaving Loney at 1b with a projected WAR of 1.5 (4.5 less than a Pujols or Fielde) can upgrades be made at other positions to make up that 4.5 WAR and at a cheaper cost?
A healthy Ethier might improve the mix by 2.0 WAR over last year. A full year of Gordon might add 1.0 WAR over the past year’s SS performance. The catchers, Uribe and Rivera provide no upgrades. It would be great if Kemp contributed 10.0 WAR again, but some drop off might happen. So now where can the upgrades be made?
There was a chance for a LF improvement with either Sands or MYSTI Plan Morrrison, but that may be gone if Rivera is in LF. The team is then down to either 2B or 3B left to upgrade (whichever one Uribe is not playing) An upgrade at 2B like Kelly Johnson might add 1.0 – 2.0 WAR upgrade or an Aramis Ramirez might more expensively add 2.0 WAR – that would help defray part of missing out on Fielder or Pujols,
but it came down to The Dodgers had a chance to upgrade at LF fairly economically and if they are giving up the position to Rivera, they have missed out on a good opportunity to upgrade the team overall. Had they been able to get a player in LF who could give a 2.5 WAR upgrade and gotten an upgrade at 2B or 3B, it might have been as valuable as getting Fielder, but at a cheaper cost.
Comment by Kirk Davenport— November 4, 2011 #
Actually, catcher could be an upgrade if Ellis starts ~100 games and Barajas ~60 games, instead of this past season’s Navarro debacle.
Comment by The Dude Abides— November 4, 2011 #
I’d expect Uribe in 2012 to be an upgrade over Uribe in 2011. He’ll regress to his mean, which is still bad, but not AS bad.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— November 4, 2011 #
[...] week since I’ve posted a Season in Review piece, thanks to all the hoopla over ownership and the signing of Juan Rivera. Before we completely turn the page to 2012, let’s continue our look back at [...]
Pingback by MSTI’s 2011 in Review: Starting Pitchers, Part 3 « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— November 4, 2011 #
Not hard to see 2-3 thousand wasted ABs again in 2012 with Nedcompoop dealing!!!!
Comment by JhallWally— November 4, 2011 #
[...] aren’t taking their time this offseason, are they? After getting things started quickly by bringing back Juan Rivera, they’ve now snapped up Mark Ellis, have agreed in principle to an extension for [...]
Pingback by What Do the Dodgers Have Left? « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— November 15, 2011 #
[...] that has already dwindled to seven, as Rivera has returned and Carroll & Barajas have signed elsewhere. Only Barajas and Kuroda are ranked free agents, in [...]
Pingback by Expect The Arbitration Deadline to Pass Quietly Today « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— November 23, 2011 #
[...] doesn’t take into account the terrifying prospect of a full season of Rivera in left field, since after being lousy for five of six months last season, he’s not exactly high on my optimism list as he turns 34. The damage could be limited by [...]
Pingback by Money For Nothing, and Hits For Free « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness— January 2, 2012 #