The Dodgers and Advanced Statistics
November 16, 2011 at 10:48 am | Posted in Alex Tamin, Ned Colletti | 48 Comments
Since the Dodgers have seemingly managed to go nearly 24 full hours without signing anyone (though not without filing yet another lawsuit!), let’s do something different. Let’s talk about sabermetrics, which I understand is a dirty word for some. Or “advanced statistics”, or “Moneyball”, or “new school philosophy”, or whatever you want to call it. Though some teams rely on this kind of evaluation more than others, it’s a myth that there are teams who are completely “Moneyball” and teams who aren’t. Every single team uses some combination of scouting and statistics to make decisions; despite what you might have heard, Oakland’s baseball operations department is not entirely Billy Beane and a bunch of computers. The A’s still use scouts, and teams seen as “behind the curve” still use statistics. This is a good thing, because any organization who doesn’t take advantage of all of the information available is cheating themselves.
Still, facts rarely get in the way of a good story, and with the recent hiring of Alex Tamin as the Dodgers’ new “Director of Baseball Contracts, Research, and Operations,” there’s suddenly this belief among some that the club has “gone sabermetric”; hell, SI‘s Tom Verducci outright said as much:
The Dodgers and general manager Ned Colletti, with his three decades in baseball, have gone sabermetric. In September the Dodgers hired Alex Tamin, a graduate of Johns Hopkins and UCLA School of Law, as Director of Baseball Contracts, Research and Operations. That was a confirmation that Los Angeles is joining the “new school” franchises with a strong belief — not just an obligatory nod — that quantitative analysis plays an important role in building a winning team.
Tamin’s addition is welcome, particularly since his legal background and baseball experience make him an ideal replacement for Kim Ng when it comes to negotiations and arbitration hearings. He’s represented the Dodgers and other clubs as an outside counsel in arbitration hearings before, and he most recently maintained a legal practice specializing in commercial litigation. If he brings a touch of outside thinking that might differ from a baseball lifer like Colletti, all the better, though that hardly seems to qualify as “going sabermetric”, particularly when half the point of Colletti being hired in the first place is that he was about as far removed from Paul DePodesta as you can possibly be. So kudos to the Dodgers for what seems to be a worthy hire.
This, however, is not sabermetrics (also from Verducci’s article):
So Colletti will have to apply his increased sabermetric vision to improving this team around the edges. For example, Colletti re-signed righthanded hitter Juan Rivera ($4.5 million) because his quantitative analysis showed the Dodgers’ lefthanded hitters posted a .566 OPS against lefthanded pitching. Only the Padres, Pirates and Nationals were worse in the NL. Rivera, who can play first base or the outfield, gives manager Don Mattingly an option against lefthanded pitching in place of either Loney (.561 OPS vs. lefties) or Ethier (.563), who ranked 215 and 217 out of the 226 players who were given at least 100 plate appearances against lefties.
I’m pretty sure you don’t need an advanced degree in astrophysics from an Ivy League school to spend 30 seconds on baseball-reference to see platoon splits for James Loney and Andre Ethier – issues, by the way, I’ve been calling out here for years. A true “quantitative analysis” might have shown that the narrative around “Juan Rivera, Savior of 2011″ was massively overblown, particularly when he was DFA’d by one of the most well-respected front offices in baseball (Toronto), and that as he heads into his age-34 season, he was awful for five of the six months on the baseball calendar last season, redeemed only slightly by a decent-ish August that just so happened to be some of his first weeks as a Dodger.
This, also, is not sabermetrics:
Colletti said the team chose Mark Ellis for defense first, with analysis by new front-office number cruncher Alex Tamin. Ellis leads all active MLB second basemen in “zone rating,” a calculation based on ground-ball chances in a defined zone by position.
Similarly, the idea that Ellis is a quality defensive second baseman hardly required a team of NASA scientists – it’s the main reason Ellis has had a career, and it’s backed up by both the eye test and defensive metrics, nearly all of which rate him as above-average. If you needed to hire a dedicated statistician to tell you that Mark Ellis is a good fielder, you might be doing it wrong. Sabermetrics isn’t about confirming the obvious, or at least it shouldn’t be; it should be about looking deeper than the usual surface stats to find undervalued assets who are likely to improve, hopefully allowing you to acquire them for a discount, and buying older, declining players like Rivera and Ellis – even if they fill a hole, which each arguably does – at a premium doesn’t really qualify.
I know it sounds like I’m ragging on the Dodgers here, and I’m really not. The point here is not that Tamin isn’t a valuable addition (even though he’s apparently gone from “arbitration lawyer” to “Bill James disciple” in six weeks) or that the Dodgers shouldn’t start using more advanced statistical methods (it is still 2003, right?), or even that I have enough knowledge of the inner workings of the front office to know exactly what Tamin is spending his time on. Hey, maybe he really is helping to build some new advanced player evaluation system, like so many other teams already have – I have no idea. It’d just be nice if the media would cool it on this “Dodgers have gone sabermetric” business by pointing out examples that really don’t support that theory at all. If anything, the moves the Dodgers have made so far this offseason are the exact opposite of what a supposed “sabermetric” team would do.
Good? Now, time to work on competing “Clayton Kershaw wins NL Cy Young” and “Clayton Kershaw disappointingly places third” pieces for tomorrow.
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I kind of have the belief that Colletti simply hired Tamin just so he could “say” that he Dodgers are going sabermetric just to get some criticism off his back from the new school crowd whenever he makes a transaction.
Comment by Nofatmike— November 16, 2011 #
When we learn that Colletti and Tamin have built their version of Carmine I’ll buy into Verducci’s theory.
Comment by Warren— November 16, 2011 #
I couldn’t remember what it was called but yeah, this.
Comment by Mike— November 16, 2011 #
What the hell is OPS? What an advanced stat!
Comment by Doppel— November 16, 2011 #
OverPaid Suckfests?
Comment by Mike— November 16, 2011 #
Mike, it sounds like you’re ragging on Tom Verducci!
Comment by Greg— November 16, 2011 #
I love the Lisa moneyball pic Mike.
Just a question though, why do you consider the Blue Jays front office geniuses all of a sudden? I mean they have some good players, but let’s not start hailing Toronto as geniuses until they actually get to the playoffs and win something.
Comment by format— November 16, 2011 #
Nah dude, good moves are good moves. They’ve been brilliant other than trading away Napoli right after trading for him.
Comment by Table— November 16, 2011 #
Brilliant? really? they havent had a good team in 20 years
Comment by format— November 16, 2011 #
Current GM has been in place for like, 2.
Comment by Mike— November 16, 2011 #
true but losing has been in place there for 20
Comment by format— November 16, 2011 #
Yeah, but I’m not worried about what they did in 1998. I’m just talking about the current front office that decided to cut Juan Rivera.
Comment by Mike— November 16, 2011 #
His trades:
Roy Halladay for Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and Travis D’Arnaud.
Michael Taylor for Brett Wallace
Brett Wallace for Anthony Gose
Brandon League and Johermyn Chavez for Brandon Morrow
Alex Gonzalez, Tim Collins, and Tyler Pastornicky for Yunel Escobar
Vernon (86 mill left) Wells for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera
Mike Napoli for Frank Fransisco
Juan Rivera for cash considerations
Zach Stewart, and Jason Frasor for Edwin Jackson and Mark Teahen
Edwin Jackson, Octavio Dotel, Marc Rzepczynski, Corey Patterson, and 3 players to be named later or cash for Colby Rasmus, Brian Tallet, PJ Walters, and Trevor Miller
Aaron Hill, and John McDonald for Kelly Johnson
he also did that thing were he acquired Miguel Olivo and declined his option the next day, basically trading to get a compensation draft pick.
His big signing was locking up Jose Bautista for cheap after his first big year.
Comment by Table— November 16, 2011 #
Is this post for real? Are you for real?
Comment by Bip— November 16, 2011 #
Go on…
Comment by Mike— November 16, 2011 #
I just can’t get behind penalizing a team for not making the playoffs when they are in a division with the Yanks/Sox/Rays
Comment by Table— November 16, 2011 #
Who’s penalizing? just saying im not going to say their geniuses until they actually make the playoffs
Comment by format— November 16, 2011 #
I’m saying, that doesn’t make any sense.
Comment by Table— November 16, 2011 #
what doesnt make sense? They cant be that respected until they actually win anything, thats all im saying.
Comment by format— November 16, 2011 #
What he’s saying is, if that exact same team had played in the NL West or AL Central, etc, they’d have made the playoffs at least twice in recent years. They are being penalized by the geographic circumstance of being in the AL East.
Comment by Mike— November 16, 2011 #
I don’t get that. Winning the world series is random right? Any of the 8 teams any given year could do it. I respect the hell out of the Rays management, the make the playoff allot as of late, but they have not won a series. That doesn’t change how smart I think they are.
Comment by Table— November 16, 2011 #
I know Mike, I understand, but when was the last time the Blue Jays actually won more than 84 games in a season?
Comment by format— November 16, 2011 #
2010, and also 2008?
Comment by Mike— November 16, 2011 #
When Mike calls the Blue Jays management respected he is referring strictly to the front office that has been in place since the end of 2009. Anything that happend before that is not relevant. In the next 5 years someone might refer to the Dodgers owners as respected, they won’t be talking about McCourt, Fox, and O’malley
Comment by Table— November 16, 2011 #
In any case Format, we don’t really have to argue. I’m confident that the Jays WILL make the playoffs sooner than later in which case we can start to see eye to eye (though even now I have to have some serious doubt because of that darn division they play in)
Comment by Table— November 16, 2011 #
You can be geniuses without making the playoffs, especially in a short two year sample. Even a Genius can’t make the playoffs every single year. It’s just two years in, and thus not relevant how many times they’ve made the playoffs.
Comment by Table— November 16, 2011 #
really? I dont know, to me, winning and making the playoffs are pretty relevant. but thats just me
Comment by format— November 16, 2011 #
they play with the REDSOX ANY YANKEES
Comment by Table— November 16, 2011 #
ok no worries. If they do make the playoffs next year then I will admit that there front office is pretty good. I just dont believe the argument that Rivera must permanently suck only because Toronto cut him. He sucked with Toronto because he sucked.
Comment by format— November 16, 2011 #
Oh yeah, I don’t think either of us were saying otherwise. With the exception of about 4 weeks late in the summer, Rivera was lousy all year. All I was saying was that it looks even worse to give him $4.5m when a front office I respect says “we’d rather you just go home now, please.”
Comment by Mike— November 16, 2011 #
Besides, I didn’t say “geniuses” or “brilliant”, I just said “well-respected.”
Comment by Mike— November 16, 2011 #
I love how Lisa has a book called “Schrodinger’s bat”
Comment by format— November 16, 2011 #
Has it been a full 24 since the actual (not the rumored) Treanor signing?
Comment by Deborah Levinson— November 16, 2011 #
Hmm, you might have gotten me there. Close enough!
Comment by Mike— November 16, 2011 #
With the Matt Treanor signing, it looks like Ned Colletti may be playing pennyball.
Go Blue!
Comment by dodgerccp— November 16, 2011 #
F’in McCourt reducing payroll; one last FU to the Dodgers fans. Can’t wait to thank Bud Selig again for allowing this asshole to buy the team in the first place.
Hopefully Kuroda signs with half the money deferred, so he can join his teammates once again. Mattingly should not let Treanor get more than 10 ABs.
Go Blue!
Comment by dodgerccp— November 16, 2011 #
Ned Colletti going sabermetric?! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HY-03vYYAjA
Comment by SamL— November 16, 2011 #
Since we hired this guy we’be signed three guys who don’t get on base often enough. Ned hasn’t gone moneyball.
Comment by @BrocNessMonster— November 16, 2011 #
OBP has been around a long time. So has Slg. %. In fact, it has been my contention that if a player has a high BA, OBP and Slg. %, the chances are the rest of those objective empirical evidential reasoned baseball statistical numbers are going to impressive too. As for defensive peripherals, it doesn’t take a mathematical genius to look out at the Dodgers and tell who is good defensively and who isn’t. My grandson could do that and he is in t-ball.
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BTW, I just checked Bill James’ projections for the Dodger 2012 starter lineup and all I can say is we better have very good pitching if we have any hope of winning the division. (uh…… is there any hope of winning the division? Just asking?)
Comment by Rory— November 17, 2011 #
Rory, I agree about if a player has a high BA, OBP, and Slg %. But what if a player has a high BA, but mediocre OBP and low Slg % (think Aaron Miles when he was hitting .300)? Or a guy with a low BA but a high OBP AND Slg % (think Adam Dunn when he was hitting 40 bombs a year, near the top of the league in walks, and barely managing to hit his admittedly rather high weight)? What about a SS with a slick glove who is well below average at the plate, what’s his value? This is where the advanced stats come in, to help teams with limited resources find market inefficiencies that can be exploited. 10-12 years ago, teams were paying too much for BA and not enough for OBP (The Dodgers still do today!).
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And on the last part, there’s ALWAYS hope of winning the NL West. If the pitching is good (which I think is highly likely, especially if Kuroda comes back), and we get bounce back years from Ethier and Uribe (he CAN’T be that bad again… right? Please tell me he can’t!), and Loney’s hot bat was the result of maintainable swing changes and not luck, and Kemp is Kemp and Kershaw is Kershaw, then I think the NL West is a lock.
Comment by Dave Pomerantz— November 17, 2011 #
plus we could always grab one of the now TWO wild card spots available.
Comment by Brandon— November 17, 2011 #
“But what if a player has a high BA, but mediocre OBP and low Slg %:
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Then he doesn’t fit the criteria I mentioned.
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“What about a SS with a slick glove who is well below average at the plate, what’s his value?”
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Those guys have been around since Abner was a minnow. As for winning the West, I don’t think so. And if you look at what the guru of Baseball Math has to say, the Dodgers, as they are currently constructed, won’t be scoring many runs next year.
Comment by Rory— November 17, 2011 #
Juan Rivera’s contract: a triumph of number-crunching over the human spirit.
Comment by johnclevenger— November 17, 2011 #
A litte off-topic but Mike had you read the vanity fair column by Michael Lewis?
http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/12/michael-lewis-201112
Doesn’t spend that much time on baseball but an interesting read just the same. Kudos to Rob Neyer for posting a link to it on twitter.
Comment by Brandon— November 17, 2011 #
Super nerdy but good on Euler’s identity on the side of a book! Those Simpsons! The equation on the white book e^i(pi)+1 = 0 is sometimes considered to be the most elegant mathematical equation ever devised. It has five mathematical constants: 1, 0, e, i, and pi and contains addition, multiplication, and exponential functions. It is written in the perfect mathematical way with zero on the right.
Anyway, Simpsons, freaking awesome reference.
Comment by RS— November 18, 2011 #
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