2011 December « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness

See You In Hell, 2011

December 30, 2011 at 7:44 pm | Posted in Uncategorized | 29 Comments

Initially, I had written up a piece about how maybe 2011 wasn’t that bad, not with a winning record, Matt Kemp & Clayton Kershaw‘s individual achievements (and Kemp’s contract extension), and Frank McCourt finally agreeing to sell the team. But you know what? You all know what happened this year, from the ongoing court battles, dwindling attendance, MLB takeover attempts, bi-weekly games of “will McCourt make payroll?”, taking the team into bankruptcy, embarrassing first-half play on the field, the Bryan Stow tragedy, the entire Steve Soboroff era, and finally Ned Colletti’s attempts to put together the best team of 2006. All in all, 2011′s going to go down as one of the most painful and embarrassing seasons in team history, and though it provided plenty of fun blogging topics, good riddance.

Here’s to 2012. New owner, hopefully a new general manager, and new hope. Cheers.

For Dodgers, Lack of International Spending Is Beginning to Show

December 29, 2011 at 4:37 pm | Posted in Uncategorized | 30 Comments

Regular posting will resume next week. For now, a thought…

With the starting rotation of Clayton Kershaw / Chad Billingsley / Ted Lilly / Aaron Harang / Chris Capuano all but set, Nathan Eovaldi & John Ely likely the main reserves, and the possibility of other minor leaguers like Allen Webster, Michael Antonini, or Zach Lee arriving at some point at well, the Dodger starting group looks like it could have a decidedly American and Caucasian feel.

If that seems unusual for the Dodgers, well, it is. If it holds, this would be the first time since the 1980 staff featured Jerry Reuss, Bob Welch, Burt Hooton, Don Sutton, and three others that the Dodgers have had all of their starts made by American natives. 19-year-old Mexican Fernando Valenzuela made ten relief appearances that year and would start at least one game for the club in each year from 1981-90, by which time Dominican Ramon Martinez was on the scene; Martinez was a Dodger through 1998 and was followed by starters from all over the world, like Chan Ho Park, Odalis Perez, Kazuhisa Ishii, Hiroki Kuroda, and Vicente Padilla. Considering the Dodgers were once known for their diverse “United Nations” rotation in the mid-1990s with Martinez, Park, Hideo Nomo, and Ismael Valdes – in 1996, those four plus Pedro Astacio made 135 of 162 starts, with Tom Candiotti taking the rest – it’s a surprising turnaround.

In and of itself, this isn’t a problem, because Kershaw is one of the best in the game and the other four are all legitimate (if overpriced) rotation options; besides, this wouldn’t even be a discussion if financial concerns hadn’t prevented Kuroda’s return and if Rubby De La Rosa hadn’t blown out his elbow last season. (Other than a trade, the slim possibility of de la Rosa returning late in the season is probably the most likely chance of keeping the streak alive.) Of course, since one of the many sins of the Frank McCourt era is that the Dodgers have become one of the most stingy teams in international spending after years of leading in that area, it’s hard not to notice.

The Americanization of the current team goes beyond just the starting rotation, because of the current 40-man roster, only seven players are from outside North America (and yes, I’m saying “North” because Blake Hawksworth is Canadian) – Ramon Troncoso, Kenley Jansen, Ivan DeJesus, Juan Uribe, Trent Oeltjen, Juan Rivera, and Alfredo Silverio. That could increase by one if Ronald Belisario actually makes it back, but it’s also unlikely that Troncoso, DeJesus, Oeltjen, or Silverio make the 25-man roster or have any impact on the 2012 club. Just as random point of comparison, the 2008 team had 14 players who weren’t from the United States or Canada.

Again, that’s hardly a scandal or something that seemed planned, and does feel as though it’s a direct impact of the lack of funding for international scouting. (Nor is it really a racial issue, especially on a team that will give considerable playing time to African-Americans Matt Kemp, James Loney, Dee Gordon, Jerry Hairston, and Tony Gwynn.) But what was once an important talent pipeline has seemingly dried up, as evidenced by the fact that only four of the top 20 prospects recently listed at Minor League Ball are from outside North America. If the Dodgers are to return to prominence – once, you know, the criminal is gone – refunding international scouting needs to be a top priority.

Checking Into the 2012 Albuquerque Isotopes

December 26, 2011 at 10:25 am | Posted in Albuquerque Isotopes, Alfredo Silverio, Justin Sellers, Russ Mitchell, Scott Van Slyke, Tim Federowicz | 38 Comments

Last year at this time, I look a look at how the roster was shaping up for the Triple-A Albuquerque Isotopes. Considering how set the MLB roster seems to be at this point, it’s a whole lot more interesting to look at the minors, so let’s do it again. A year ago, we were excited at the prospect of seeing Dee Gordon, Trayvon Robinson, and Jerry Sands all playing together at the highest minor-league level. This year, there’s a different crop of interesting offensive prospects to keep tabs on, though not likely a whole lot of interest on the mound.

C: After parts of four seasons in Triple-A, dating back to 2008 with Las Vegas, A.J. Ellis is out of options and finally set to get a shot in the bigs. There’s little question here that Tim Federowicz will be the regular Isotopes backstop, since the 102 plate appearances he received with Albuquerque last season were his first above Double-A. Last year’s primary backup, Damaso Espino, is an unsigned free agent, so it’s likely that recently-signed veteran Josh Bard joins Federowicz in New Mexico, with a decent chance we’ll see either prospect Gorman Erickson or recently-signed and well-traveled Salomon Manriquez making appearances at points as well.

1B: Scott Van Slyke, 2011′s Dodger minor league hitter of the year, moves up from Double-A Chattanooga; he could still see some time in the outfield corners, but is mainly seen as a first baseman. Fun stories John Lindsey and Corey Smith are each unsigned and probably won’t be back; Jerry Sands could see some time here as well as in the outfield if he ends up not breaking camp with the big club.

2B: I’m still not convinced that he won’t be traded this winter, but the Mark Ellis signing eliminated any chance that Ivan DeJesus was going to make the Dodgers, so he’ll likely return to Triple-A for a third consecutive season. You have to wonder when Jaime Pedroza, owner of a .370 OBP in parts of two Double-A seasons, could get a shot; in addition, Justin Sellers might be the primary shortstop but should still see time at second and third as he attempts to keep his positional flexibility fresh for his future career as a utilityman.

3B: Russ Mitchell has no shot of making the Dodgers barring a string of injuries, and Pedro Baez & Travis Denker are hardly pushing him from behind, so he’ll return for his third Triple-A year at the age of 27. We’ll see him in the bigs again, as we always do, and he’ll be underwhelming as usual. Did you know the ‘Topes had thirteen third basemen last year? Okay, seven played in fewer than five games, but still.

SS: Sellers probably gets the initial look, though I’ll guess he won’t play the majority of games at shortstop since he’ll both be at second and third for Albquerque and probably spend a decent amount of time in the bigs once the elderly begin to break down. Recent minor-league invites Luis Cruz and Lance Zawadzki should collect plenty of time filling space until Jake Lemmerman is ready, perhaps in 2013.

LF: This largely depends on Sands, because if he’s in the minors, he’s playing every day. Primary 2011 left fielder Trayvon Robinson is of course gone, so there should be an opening for what could be a hilarious season out of Kyle Russell. Russell has been known for his massive power and nearly-as-impressive difficulties in making contact, so that package in ABQ should present some Triple-A fueled numbers that’ll have us all pretending like he’s the next big thing by June.

CF: Alfredo Silverio was added to the 40-man roster earlier this offseason after a solid season in Chattanooga, and with both regular center fielders gone from 2011 – Robinson to Seattle, and Jamie Hoffmann to Colorado – there’s a big hole here for Silverio to fill. Non-roster invite Cory Sullivan probably also fits into the mix here.

RF: Well, I don’t think Jay Gibbons is coming back. Alex Castellanos, impressive in a short look with Chattanooga after being acquired for Rafael Furcal, is likely to start the season as the primary Isotope right fielder; Russell and Sullivan could see time here as well.

Bench: Other than the guys I’ve already mentioned – Bard, Cruz, Zawadzki, & Sullivan – corner infielder Jeff Baisley will probably be an Isotope, plus perhaps 2B/3B Joe Becker, who got into 70 games with the club last season. In the outfield, expect to see Trent Oeltjen or someone else like him, and at some point, Albuquerque native Brian Cavazos-Galvez should make his hometown debut.

Starting Pitching

It helps, somewhat, that the Dodger starting rotation and bullpen are all but set, so there’s no worry about ten guys fighting for that fifth rotation spot. On the other hand, the Dodgers have shown a pattern of trying to keep their top pitching prospects away from the high-offense PCL, preferring to promote them directly from Double-A instead, so these are informed guesses and little more.

SP1: Being the #1 starter on this list doesn’t mean “ace” as it would in the bigs; rather, it’s just the order in which I consider them most likely. John Ely, owner of 25 starts for the Isotopes last year and a few stints with the Dodgers, is almost certainly headed back for another year of Triple-A. He’s roster depth at best – great to have around, never someone you want to count on.

SP2: Will Savage had a reasonably successful season for the Lookouts last year, striking out few but showing excellent control. Hardly a top prospect – 28 next year, and has been a minor-league free agent more than once – he’ll likely turn his invite to big-league camp into a season spent in New Mexico.

SP3: Like Savage, Michael Antonini is hardly a name to know – he was acquired for Chin-lung Hu for chrissake – but he’ll be 27 next year, was invited to the offseason developmental camp, and has a few games of Triple-A experience under his belt from his time with the Mets. He’s been a bit homer-prone in the lower levels, which is somewhat terrifying to think about in Albuquerque.

SP4: I went back and forth on this one, which is why he’s SP4, but I’ll guess that Nathan Eovaldi does head to Triple-A rather than Double-A. That’s partly because the Chattanooga rotation looks like it could be getting full, but also because Eovaldi was decent in his time in the bigs, and sending him back down two levels could look like an insult. Besides, if you’re going to succeed in the NL West, you have to learn how to win in Colorado and Arizona.

Others: Alberto Bastardo and Randy Keisler combined to make 34 starts last year; each is currently a free agent and might not be back. Tim Sexton was awful last year, largely as an injury fill-in, and don’t forget that Carlos Monasterios should be back from elbow surgery at some point. There’s probably also going to be another Dana Eveland-like veteran that we don’t know about yet, and it’s possible that younger arms like Allen Webster, Chris Withrow, and Stephen Fife could push their way up if the organization doesn’t try to keep them away from Albuquerque.

Relief Pitching

Take your pick. It’s possible that none of the top three Isotope leaders in games pitched from 2011 – Jon Link (already signed with Baltimore), Travis Schlichting, Merkin Valdez – returns. The fourth was Ramon Troncoso, who might make the Dodgers but is far more likely to be DFA’d since he’s out of options. Josh Lindblom could appear if he doesn’t make the big team, but the entire collection of recently signed fungible veterans – Angel Guzman, Fernando Nieve, Jose Ascanio, Ryan Tucker, Shane Lindsay, Alberto Castillo, Matt Chico, Scott Rice, John Grabow, Wil Ledezma – are candidates to make up the bullpen, as again, the Dodgers try not to put their better prospects like Shawn Tolleson, Steve Ames, and Josh Wall here.

Remember, the Isotopes have used 49, 56, and 52 players going back to 2009, so this is an extremely high-level look; needs change as the big club makes their own moves.

This Is Why No One Respects You, Hall of Fame

December 23, 2011 at 9:48 am | Posted in Bob Nightengale | 60 Comments

(This isn’t about the Dodgers. It’s a slow week.)

As you’ve no doubt noticed, Hall of Fame voting has grown increasingly contentious in recent years, as an aging electorate, some of whom haven’t covered the sport in years, continues to distinguish themselves only through continued ignorance and embarrassment. If they’re not trying to cling to arcane stats for pitchers, they’re pretending that they have supreme moral authority (and total knowledge) over the steroid era, or waiting one year too long to induct a deserving Ron Santo decades after his last plate appearance, or bringing down the overall quality of the Hall by inducting a completely undeserving Jim Rice (not even the best player in his own outfield), or most recently & egregiously of all, defending an accused child molester in a completely tone-deaf fashion.

Every year, it gets worse, and the inherent conflict of interest in allowing the writers to vote makes the entire institution seem like a complete joke. I’ll grant, of course, that there’s always going to be disagreement. That’s half the fun of this time of the year, and there should be disagreement and argument, at least when they’re based on facts. But then you get the mental gymnastics required to put in a ballot like the one that USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale submitted this year…

Sent Hall of Fame ballot in mail today: Larkin,Palmeiro,McGriff,Morris,Trammell

…and it makes your head hurt. Larkin is absolutely deserving and Trammell is defensible; I don’t want to have the Morris argument again. But you’ll notice that he has two first basemen… and neither of them are Jeff Bagwell. My first thought was, “wait, are you really keeping Bagwell out because of a pie-in-the-sky guess that he was a steroid user while actually voting for the busted Rafael Palmeiro?” As it turns out, no; Nightengale says that he would vote for a suspected PED user. His objection to Bagwell is more due to his on-the-field play.

Palmeiro’s numbers across board are much greater than Bagwell’s.

…ookay. It’s clear that Nightengale is only looking at home runs and (completely meaningless) RBIs, since that’s about the only areas where Palmeiro comes out ahead. It’s certainly not in slash lines:

Bagwell: .297/.408/.540 (.948)
McGriff: .284/.377/.509 (.886)
Palmeiro: .288/.371/.515 (.885)

Or advanced offensive stats:

Bagwell: .406 wOBA
McGriff: .382 wOBA
Palmeiro .380 wOBA

Or WAR, thanks to Bagwell’s superior defense, and let’s show that in a nice WAR graph from FanGraphs:

As Bill from The Platoon Advantage put it,

To match Raffy’s career #s Bags would have to find a way to hit .264/.235/.439 in 6.5 more seasons, somehow dropping 89 BB/HBP

So really, the only thing at all Palmeiro was better in – besides, you know, for lying to Congress – was collecting more homers. Except what Nightengale seems to be forgetting is that A) Palmeiro had nearly 4,000 more plate appearances than Bagwell did to accumulate them, and B) Bagwell spent the first decade of his career hitting in the cavernous AstroDome, a pitcher’s park nearly on par with PetCo Park.

So sure, Palmeiro’s a better candidate, if you stick your fingers in your eyes and ignore just about all of the facts. And people wonder why the Hall of Fame has lost a lot of its luster?

Ronald Belisario Is Suspended, And That’s Great News

December 21, 2011 at 6:55 am | Posted in Ronald Belisario | 28 Comments

Via Steve Dilbeck, we’ve learned that if Ronald Belisario actually does show up to camp this year, he’ll be suspended for the first 25 games of the season. We don’t know exactly why that is or even when the offense took place – I’m guessing it’s not a coincidence that this comes out the day after we find out he might actually get a visa – but considering his history and how much of his last three years have been shrouded in mystery, it’s not exactly a surprise.

While it’s rare that a suspension can be seen as a positive, I think in this case, it is, because it gives the Dodgers more time to evaluate what they have. Belisario is a completely unreliable quantity at this point, following up his surprisingly good 2009 with an underwhelming (though, I’d argue, somewhat underrated) 2010 and a completely lost 2011. Though he’s been pitching in Venezuelan leagues, it’s anyone’s guess what kind of shape he’s in or if his demons are truly behind him. Since he’s out of options, the team would be forced to carry him on the roster, trade him, or expose him to waivers if they wanted to send him down. The suspension allows them until about the end of April to evaluate him under the eyes of team personnel, either in Los Angeles or Arizona, and it also gives them time to see how the rest of their bullpen shakes out, because someone always gets hurt or is brutally ineffective in the first month.

It’s not like they’re desperate for him immediately, anyway. The Dodgers usually carry seven relievers as part of a twelve-man staff, and if the season were to start today, five spots in the bullpen are all but guaranteed:

R Javy Guerra
R Kenley Jansen
R Matt Guerrier
R Blake Hawksworth
L Scott Elbert

The sixth man is almost certainly going to be Josh Lindblom, who impressed in his debut last year, though since he has options remaining his spot isn’t completely guaranteed. The final spot, as usual, will be a battle between non-roster invites like John Grabow, Wil Ledezma, Angel Guzman & friends, young players pushing for a job like Nathan Eovaldi & Shawn Tolleson, and whatever veteran reliever Ned Colletti insists he’s still going to bring in, whether it’s Mike MacDougal or someone like him.

Anyway, it’s all moot until Belisario actually shows up, which I won’t believe until I physically see him on the mound. If he’s not as good as his 2009 2.04 ERA would have you believe, nor was he as poor as his 2010 5.04 mark would suggest, and he could be an interesting piece out of the ‘pen. Frankly, I don’t mind waiting an extra month to find out.

Casey Blake Brings the Beard to the Mountains

December 20, 2011 at 2:46 pm | Posted in Casey Blake, Ronald Belisario | 26 Comments

I’d be lying if I said I very badly wanted Casey Blake back with the Dodgers, considering that he’s spent the last two years being underwhelming and injured since his solid 2009 campaign. That said, now that we’re learning he’s signed with Colorado for one year and $2m, I can’t help but thinking the Rockies are getting a pretty good deal. With the top four players on the third base depth chart moving on from 2011 – that’d be Ty Wigginton, Ian Stewart, Jose Lopez, and Kevin Kouzmanoff – the Rockies needed someone to help Jordan Pacheco keep the seat warm for hotshot prospect Nolan Arenado, at least assuming they weren’t really going to play Michael Cuddyer there. (Though who knows, maybe they’ll still sign up for that particular brand of hilarity.)

Blake’s not an everyday starter any longer, though he does love playing at Coors (career line of .311/.368/.631 in 113 PAs) and could make for a decent enough bench piece, especially considering Colorado is full of lefties at the four corners, like Todd Helton, Jason Giambi, Carlos Gonzalez, and Seth Smith. (At which point he’ll be traded back to Cleveland for Carlos Santana. That’s how this works, right?)

And if not? If he gets hurt, or is just plain awful? Well, it’s a $2m commitment, which is to say, not really much of a commitment at all. Considering some of the contracts the Dodgers have handed out this winter, it’s hard to argue this from Colorado’s end.

So long, Casey, and best of luck… right up until you inevitably crush a game-winning homer off Mike MacDougal. It’ll happen. Mark it.

******

Of course, two minutes after I published this post, far more important news comes out. Might we finally see Ronald Belisario again?

Reliever Ronald Belisario, who missed last season because he was unable to gain entry into the United States, has been granted a visa and is expected to be in camp for the start of spring training, according to his agent.

“He should be ready to go,” said Rick Oliver, who represents Belisario.

I’ll believe it when I see it, but if true, it could be an enormous boost to the bullpen.

Dodgers Add John Grabow

December 19, 2011 at 9:10 am | Posted in John Grabow | 24 Comments

‘Tis the week before Christmas, and the Dodgers are done with their holiday shopping, setting us up for two long, cold, quiet months before spring training starts. You know what that means? It means that the club signing another in a long line of veteran non-roster types is worthy of its own post. Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors has the news…

Dodgers signed John Grabow to a minor league deal, I have confirmed. More on MLBTR in a bit.

Grabow, 33 last month – that’s right, he’d qualify for the over-the-hill gang we talked about on Saturday – is a veteran of parts of nine seasons with the Pirates and Cubs, and was part of the 2009 Tom Gorzelanny trade that also included recent Dodger minor-league signing Jose Ascanio. You can check his stat line to get the story, that he was once an effective (if wild) lefty specialist who actually managed to get a 2/$7.5m contract from the Cubs before providing little value thanks to knee and shoulder injuries, and he’s coming off the lowest average fastball velocity of his career. As you can imagine, giving that kind of money to a decent-but-not-elite reliever was laughable even before he started to decline:

Once again, we’re witness to the power of ERA as a negotiating tool. Over the last two seasons, Grabow’s thrown nearly 150 innings and posted an ERA of 3.09, giving the impression that he’s a high quality LH reliever. Yet again, ERA misleads.

Grabow’s FIP the last two years? 4.37, thanks to an atrociously high walk total. The entirety of his low ERA over the last two years is driven by an 82 percent rate of stranding runners, which is just not sustainable. He’s succeeded by putting men on base and then wiggling out of jams, but that’s not the same thing as pitching well.

Reportedly, the Dodgers showed interest in acquiring him back in 2009 – fortunately for us all, it didn’t happen, because I’m assuming that Dee Gordon probably would have been the price – but ultimately, he’s a perfectly acceptable minor-league invite type to compete for a spot in the bullpen as a second lefty to go with Scott Elbert, assuming Hong-Chih Kuo doesn’t return.

This is all well and good. It’s also not all that interesting, since this type of signing happens a dozen times a year. However, I did find two fun facts about Grabow, unless you also want to include the disturbing item that every time I say his name, it reminds me of “Jason Grabowski“, and that’s just unacceptable.

First, this entry from Wikipedia, which as we all know is a completely unimpeachable source of facts.

Grabow grew up a Giants and Dodgers fan, playing first base and emulating Will Clark.

Not cool. Second, his list of comparables from Baseball Reference is a who’s-who of mediocre lefties that may have briefly entered your consciousness, only to drift away, presumably never to be thought of again. Aaron Fultz! Joe Beimel! Jamie Walker! Trever Miller! Scott Sauerbeck! Ron Mahay!

******

Update: I briefly considered adding a “hey, at least it wasn’t the Dodgers who laughably gave Jason Kubel 2/$15m like the Diamondbacks did” joke, and decided against it. Turns out, that might have hit closer to home than I thought; according to KTAR’s John Gambadoro, Kubel “considered the Yankees and Dodgers before deciding on Arizona”. (h/t to Eric Stephen for the link.) How is it a bankrupt team is in on every mid-level free agent again?

Sure Is Nice of ESPN Chicago to Let Scott Boras Write Their Articles

December 18, 2011 at 5:11 am | Posted in Prince Fielder | 48 Comments

Over the last 12 hours or so, I’ve been getting a bunch of questions from people via Twitter and email about the surprising last sentence in this Bruce Levine ESPN report claiming the Cubs have interest in Prince Fielder:

The Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Dodgers are reportedly the main suitors for Fielder at this point, with the Cubs still in the running.

Uh… huh. That sort of comes out of nowhere, right, especially when it comes from a Chicago radio host – granted, the same one who was the first on Aramis Ramirez signing in Milwaukee – and buried in a throwaway line in a story that’s mainly about the Cubs? Sure, that may have been an outside possibility before the Dodgers dropped nearly $17m in 2012 salary on the collection of busted veterans we’ve discussed so many times, not to mention the ~$13m that Juan Uribe & Matt Guerrier will collect, plus the ~$6m James Loney will get in arbitration. Now? Please, and even if it was possible, I feel like that’s something we just might have heard about.

If anything, it seems clear that the market for Fielder isn’t developing like he and Scott Boras had hoped. Big spenders like the Red Sox, Yankees, and Phillies are all set at first base, while the financial difficulties of the Dodgers and Mets are well-known. Clearly, the Angels are no longer in need of a first baseman, while the Cardinals seem content with using Lance Berkman and/or Matt Adams to replace Albert Pujols, and there’s conflicting reports on whether the Cubs are even interested.

All of which leaves Fielder without a ton of great options. Seattle’s desperate for offense, but moving to a bad team in a huge park without any other offensive support outside of Dustin Ackley doesn’t seem appealing; Washington can’t get anyone to take their money and Texas & Miami reportedly don’t plan to bid. So yeah, it behooves Boras to start coming up with his famous “mystery team” just to try to goose the market, and no, despite what appears in the unsourced rumors, let’s not pretend that the Dodgers really have a prayer in this.

For the record, I do think that Fielder probably does see Los Angeles as a good fit, because it just makes so much sense. Go to Hollywood, play with your good friends Matt Kemp & Tony Gwynn – not to mention former teammates Jerry Hairston & Chris Capuano – and help rescue a floundering franchise that might be just one big bat away from making some noise? I get it – I do. I just think we all know that there’s no way the money is still there after the underwhelming shopping spree the Dodgers have already went on – so let’s not get our hopes up, okay?

(That said… it’s 22 degrees out where I am, so let’s spitball a completely ludicrous thought experiment. Loney would have just about no value on the trade market, but tendering him isn’t exactly the end of the story. There is a little-known and rarely-used option for a team to walk away from an arbitration decision before Opening Day, with the club owing the player just 30 or 45 days of pro-rated salary depending on when in the spring it happens. It gets sticky, because it has to be based on performance & not economics, and the last time I can remember it happening, the union filed a grievance against the Padres when they whacked Todd Walker in 2007. That makes for the one time ever where spring training stats actually mean something, and is probably even less likely than the idea that Frank McCourt could try to hang onto the team, though if a portly first baseman should happen to land in the Dodgers’ laps on a massively-backloaded deal, that is one option to get rid of Loney despite the tender. Again though, that’s thinking out loud – Fielder’s not coming.)

The 2012 Dodgers Want You To Stay Off Their Lawns, You Damn Kids

December 17, 2011 at 9:35 am | Posted in Chris Capuano, Matt Treanor | 29 Comments

Earlier this month, I noted how troubling it was that just about all of the Dodger shopping spree so far this winter has focused on older players on the backside of their careers:

Worse, the age trend here is terrifying. Adam Kennedy is 36 in January. Matt Treanor is 36 in March. Jerry Hairston turns 36 in May, which is also when Aaron Harang is 34. Mark Ellis is 35 in June. Juan Rivera will be 34 in July. Chris Capuano is 34 in August. That’s seven signings (assuming Harang arrives), and not a single one younger than Capuano.

Add them to Ted Lilly (36 in two weeks) & Matt Guerrier (34 in August) and the 2012 Dodgers will start off with nine players who are 33 or older by June 30, which is when Baseball Reference marks as the cut-off for determining a player’s age during a season. Assume that Mike MacDougal returns (35 in March) and that would make it ten, a full 40% of the active roster, and it would be eleven if not for the fact that Juan Uribe (33 on July 22) misses the deadline by just three weeks.

So that got me thinking – how might this compare to previous Dodger squads in terms of going to battle with players coming dangerously near their expiration date? As it turns out, we don’t have to go too far, since the club record for a season with most players 33 or older on June 30 came all the way back in… 2010, with 19 graybeards ranging from Garret Anderson to Jeff Weaver. Unsurprisingly, three of the top four Dodger clubs on this ranking, and four of the top six, have come under the leadership of Ned Colletti; all of the top eight have come since the turn of the century. That 2010 club actually had the fourth-highest amount of 33+ players of all time, though I think topping the memorably aged 2005 Yankees’ count of 25 such players is probably just a bit out of reach.

Ten isn’t nineteen, but remember that no team – and particularly one depending on so many older players – gets through the year with the same 25 players. When injuries strike, it’s almost certain that a few of your standard Triple-A non-roster types like Josh Bard (34 in March), Alberto Castillo (37 in July), and others we don’t know about yet pick up at least a few token appearances during the season. Beyond that, it’s still not out of the question that they will end up signing someone like Hideki Matsui (38 in June) and push Jerry Sands to the minors – plus whatever other questionable acquisitions pop up during the season.

Can they get nine more 33+ players into games over the season to tie the 2010 “record”? I think they can, especially if someone says Juan Castro‘s name three times in a row so he can make his yearly appearance. It’s okay, though; of the ten plus Uribe I listed at the start of the piece, all but Rivera, Treanor, Kennedy and (for the moment, at least) MacDougal are under contract for 2013 as well. So look for this piece next December, except then we can bump up the limit to 34 years of age – that record is only 15, set back in 2007. Fun times ahead!

Latest Rumor du Jour: Coco Crisp?

December 15, 2011 at 5:18 am | Posted in Coco Crisp | 51 Comments

Now it seems the Dodgers are interested in Coco Crisp and… well, look. I like Coco Crisp. Quite a bit, actually. Despite a down 2011, he’s a plus outfielder, a switch-hitter, an excellent base-stealer, a Los Angeles native, and owner of the best hair the Dodgers have seen since Eric Karros hung up the mullet. Stick him in left, let Jerry Sands get plenty of plate appearances between left, right, and first, and have Juan Rivera as a nice bench bat who can also assist Sands in getting James Loney & Andre Ethier out against lefties, and now we’re talking.

It’s just, what are we really doing here? This is a team that arguably already had a starting outfield in Sands, Matt Kemp, and Ethier, and since then they’ve signed three additional outfield options in Rivera, Tony Gwynn, and Jerry Hairston. This is a team that’s been crying poor every step of the way, yet Crisp made $5.75m last year and hasn’t made less than $5m since 2007. He’s put up $5.5 fWAR over the last two seasons, and while I’m certainly not suggesting that someone’s signing him to the 2/$25m contract that number might indicate, 2/$12m is hardly unreasonable. Yet who among us thinks the Dodgers still have that type of money, unless we’re talking about a 0.5/11.5 backloading? Besides, if they do still have that sort of cash, then it just goes back to the question of “why in the hell are you signing all of these bit players when you could have gone for the superstar you clearly need?”

Plus, with the roster set as tightly as it is, a Crisp signing can only mean that Sands starts the year in Triple-A. That in itself isn’t the end of the world, except that bringing back Gwynn seems a little redundant if you’re going to add Crisp. If Crisp isn’t quite the defender Gwynn is, he’s not all that far off – and still far better than any other outfielder on the roster – and he’s a far better hitter, a better base-runner, and can hit from both sides of the plate.

That’s not to say they shouldn’t express interest in Crisp, because I think he can help them win (and I have to admit, the thought of Crisp, Kemp, and Dee Gordon all galloping around the bases is tempting). It’s just that once again, we’re looking at the roster as constructed, and wondering just what the plan is this winter.