Monthly Archives: December 2011

See You In Hell, 2011

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Initially, I had written up a piece about how maybe 2011 wasn’t that bad, not with a winning record, Matt Kemp & Clayton Kershaw‘s individual achievements (and Kemp’s contract extension), and Frank McCourt finally agreeing to sell the team. But you know what? You all know what happened this year, from the ongoing court battles, dwindling attendance, MLB takeover attempts, bi-weekly games of “will McCourt make payroll?”, taking the team into bankruptcy, embarrassing first-half play on the field, the Bryan Stow tragedy, the entire Steve Soboroff era, and finally Ned Colletti’s attempts to put together the best team of 2006. All in all, 2011′s going to go down as one of the most painful and embarrassing seasons in team history, and though it provided plenty of fun blogging topics, good riddance.

Here’s to 2012. New owner, hopefully a new general manager, and new hope. Cheers.

For Dodgers, Lack of International Spending Is Beginning to Show

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Regular posting will resume next week. For now, a thought…

With the starting rotation of Clayton Kershaw / Chad Billingsley / Ted Lilly / Aaron Harang / Chris Capuano all but set, Nathan Eovaldi & John Ely likely the main reserves, and the possibility of other minor leaguers like Allen Webster, Michael Antonini, or Zach Lee arriving at some point at well, the Dodger starting group looks like it could have a decidedly American and Caucasian feel.

If that seems unusual for the Dodgers, well, it is. If it holds, this would be the first time since the 1980 staff featured Jerry Reuss, Bob Welch, Burt Hooton, Don Sutton, and three others that the Dodgers have had all of their starts made by American natives. 19-year-old Mexican Fernando Valenzuela made ten relief appearances that year and would start at least one game for the club in each year from 1981-90, by which time Dominican Ramon Martinez was on the scene; Martinez was a Dodger through 1998 and was followed by starters from all over the world, like Chan Ho Park, Odalis Perez, Kazuhisa Ishii, Hiroki Kuroda, and Vicente Padilla. Considering the Dodgers were once known for their diverse “United Nations” rotation in the mid-1990s with Martinez, Park, Hideo Nomo, and Ismael Valdes – in 1996, those four plus Pedro Astacio made 135 of 162 starts, with Tom Candiotti taking the rest – it’s a surprising turnaround.

In and of itself, this isn’t a problem, because Kershaw is one of the best in the game and the other four are all legitimate (if overpriced) rotation options; besides, this wouldn’t even be a discussion if financial concerns hadn’t prevented Kuroda’s return and if Rubby De La Rosa hadn’t blown out his elbow last season. (Other than a trade, the slim possibility of de la Rosa returning late in the season is probably the most likely chance of keeping the streak alive.) Of course, since one of the many sins of the Frank McCourt era is that the Dodgers have become one of the most stingy teams in international spending after years of leading in that area, it’s hard not to notice.

The Americanization of the current team goes beyond just the starting rotation, because of the current 40-man roster, only seven players are from outside North America (and yes, I’m saying “North” because Blake Hawksworth is Canadian) – Ramon Troncoso, Kenley Jansen, Ivan DeJesus, Juan Uribe, Trent Oeltjen, Juan Rivera, and Alfredo Silverio. That could increase by one if Ronald Belisario actually makes it back, but it’s also unlikely that Troncoso, DeJesus, Oeltjen, or Silverio make the 25-man roster or have any impact on the 2012 club. Just as random point of comparison, the 2008 team had 14 players who weren’t from the United States or Canada.

Again, that’s hardly a scandal or something that seemed planned, and does feel as though it’s a direct impact of the lack of funding for international scouting. (Nor is it really a racial issue, especially on a team that will give considerable playing time to African-Americans Matt Kemp, James Loney, Dee Gordon, Jerry Hairston, and Tony Gwynn.) But what was once an important talent pipeline has seemingly dried up, as evidenced by the fact that only four of the top 20 prospects recently listed at Minor League Ball are from outside North America. If the Dodgers are to return to prominence – once, you know, the criminal is gone – refunding international scouting needs to be a top priority.

Checking Into the 2012 Albuquerque Isotopes

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Last year at this time, I look a look at how the roster was shaping up for the Triple-A Albuquerque Isotopes. Considering how set the MLB roster seems to be at this point, it’s a whole lot more interesting to look at the minors, so let’s do it again. A year ago, we were excited at the prospect of seeing Dee Gordon, Trayvon Robinson, and Jerry Sands all playing together at the highest minor-league level. This year, there’s a different crop of interesting offensive prospects to keep tabs on, though not likely a whole lot of interest on the mound.

C: After parts of four seasons in Triple-A, dating back to 2008 with Las Vegas, A.J. Ellis is out of options and finally set to get a shot in the bigs. There’s little question here that Tim Federowicz will be the regular Isotopes backstop, since the 102 plate appearances he received with Albuquerque last season were his first above Double-A. Last year’s primary backup, Damaso Espino, is an unsigned free agent, so it’s likely that recently-signed veteran Josh Bard joins Federowicz in New Mexico, with a decent chance we’ll see either prospect Gorman Erickson or recently-signed and well-traveled Salomon Manriquez making appearances at points as well.

1B: Scott Van Slyke, 2011′s Dodger minor league hitter of the year, moves up from Double-A Chattanooga; he could still see some time in the outfield corners, but is mainly seen as a first baseman. Fun stories John Lindsey and Corey Smith are each unsigned and probably won’t be back; Jerry Sands could see some time here as well as in the outfield if he ends up not breaking camp with the big club.

2B: I’m still not convinced that he won’t be traded this winter, but the Mark Ellis signing eliminated any chance that Ivan DeJesus was going to make the Dodgers, so he’ll likely return to Triple-A for a third consecutive season. You have to wonder when Jaime Pedroza, owner of a .370 OBP in parts of two Double-A seasons, could get a shot; in addition, Justin Sellers might be the primary shortstop but should still see time at second and third as he attempts to keep his positional flexibility fresh for his future career as a utilityman.

3B: Russ Mitchell has no shot of making the Dodgers barring a string of injuries, and Pedro Baez & Travis Denker are hardly pushing him from behind, so he’ll return for his third Triple-A year at the age of 27. We’ll see him in the bigs again, as we always do, and he’ll be underwhelming as usual. Did you know the ‘Topes had thirteen third basemen last year? Okay, seven played in fewer than five games, but still.

SS: Sellers probably gets the initial look, though I’ll guess he won’t play the majority of games at shortstop since he’ll both be at second and third for Albquerque and probably spend a decent amount of time in the bigs once the elderly begin to break down. Recent minor-league invites Luis Cruz and Lance Zawadzki should collect plenty of time filling space until Jake Lemmerman is ready, perhaps in 2013.

LF: This largely depends on Sands, because if he’s in the minors, he’s playing every day. Primary 2011 left fielder Trayvon Robinson is of course gone, so there should be an opening for what could be a hilarious season out of Kyle Russell. Russell has been known for his massive power and nearly-as-impressive difficulties in making contact, so that package in ABQ should present some Triple-A fueled numbers that’ll have us all pretending like he’s the next big thing by June.

CF: Alfredo Silverio was added to the 40-man roster earlier this offseason after a solid season in Chattanooga, and with both regular center fielders gone from 2011 – Robinson to Seattle, and Jamie Hoffmann to Colorado – there’s a big hole here for Silverio to fill. Non-roster invite Cory Sullivan probably also fits into the mix here.

RF: Well, I don’t think Jay Gibbons is coming back. Alex Castellanos, impressive in a short look with Chattanooga after being acquired for Rafael Furcal, is likely to start the season as the primary Isotope right fielder; Russell and Sullivan could see time here as well.

Bench: Other than the guys I’ve already mentioned – Bard, Cruz, Zawadzki, & Sullivan – corner infielder Jeff Baisley will probably be an Isotope, plus perhaps 2B/3B Joe Becker, who got into 70 games with the club last season. In the outfield, expect to see Trent Oeltjen or someone else like him, and at some point, Albuquerque native Brian Cavazos-Galvez should make his hometown debut.

Starting Pitching

It helps, somewhat, that the Dodger starting rotation and bullpen are all but set, so there’s no worry about ten guys fighting for that fifth rotation spot. On the other hand, the Dodgers have shown a pattern of trying to keep their top pitching prospects away from the high-offense PCL, preferring to promote them directly from Double-A instead, so these are informed guesses and little more.

SP1: Being the #1 starter on this list doesn’t mean “ace” as it would in the bigs; rather, it’s just the order in which I consider them most likely. John Ely, owner of 25 starts for the Isotopes last year and a few stints with the Dodgers, is almost certainly headed back for another year of Triple-A. He’s roster depth at best – great to have around, never someone you want to count on.

SP2: Will Savage had a reasonably successful season for the Lookouts last year, striking out few but showing excellent control. Hardly a top prospect – 28 next year, and has been a minor-league free agent more than once – he’ll likely turn his invite to big-league camp into a season spent in New Mexico.

SP3: Like Savage, Michael Antonini is hardly a name to know – he was acquired for Chin-lung Hu for chrissake – but he’ll be 27 next year, was invited to the offseason developmental camp, and has a few games of Triple-A experience under his belt from his time with the Mets.  He’s been a bit homer-prone in the lower levels, which is somewhat terrifying to think about in Albuquerque.

SP4: I went back and forth on this one, which is why he’s SP4, but I’ll guess that Nathan Eovaldi does head to Triple-A rather than Double-A. That’s partly because the Chattanooga rotation looks like it could be getting full, but also because Eovaldi was decent in his time in the bigs, and sending him back down two levels could look like an insult. Besides, if you’re going to succeed in the NL West, you have to learn how to win in Colorado and Arizona.

Others: Alberto Bastardo and Randy Keisler combined to make 34 starts last year; each is currently a free agent and might not be back. Tim Sexton was awful last year, largely as an injury fill-in, and don’t forget that Carlos Monasterios should be back from elbow surgery at some point. There’s probably also going to be another Dana Eveland-like veteran that we don’t know about yet, and it’s possible that younger arms like Allen Webster, Chris Withrow, and Stephen Fife could push their way up if the organization doesn’t try to keep them away from Albuquerque.

Relief Pitching

Take your pick. It’s possible that none of the top three Isotope leaders in games pitched from 2011 – Jon Link (already signed with Baltimore), Travis Schlichting, Merkin Valdez – returns. The fourth was Ramon Troncoso, who might make the Dodgers but is far more likely to be DFA’d since he’s out of options. Josh Lindblom could appear if he doesn’t make the big team, but the entire collection of recently signed fungible veterans – Angel Guzman, Fernando Nieve, Jose Ascanio, Ryan Tucker, Shane Lindsay, Alberto Castillo, Matt Chico, Scott Rice, John Grabow, Wil Ledezma – are candidates to make up the bullpen, as again, the Dodgers try not to put their better prospects like Shawn Tolleson, Steve Ames, and Josh Wall here.

Remember, the Isotopes have used 49, 56, and 52 players going back to 2009, so this is an extremely high-level look; needs change as the big club makes their own moves.


This Is Why No One Respects You, Hall of Fame

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(This isn’t about the Dodgers. It’s a slow week.)

As you’ve no doubt noticed, Hall of Fame voting has grown increasingly contentious in recent years, as an aging electorate, some of whom haven’t covered the sport in years, continues to distinguish themselves only through continued ignorance and embarrassment. If they’re not trying to cling to arcane stats for pitchers, they’re pretending that they have supreme moral authority (and total knowledge) over the steroid era, or waiting one year too long to induct a deserving Ron Santo decades after his last plate appearance, or bringing down the overall quality of the Hall by inducting a completely undeserving Jim Rice (not even the best player in his own outfield), or most recently & egregiously of all, defending an accused child molester in a completely tone-deaf fashion.

Every year, it gets worse, and the inherent conflict of interest in allowing the writers to vote makes the entire institution seem like a complete joke. I’ll grant, of course, that there’s always going to be disagreement. That’s half the fun of this time of the year, and there should be disagreement and argument, at least when they’re based on facts. But then you get the mental gymnastics required to put in a ballot like the one that USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale submitted this year…

Sent Hall of Fame ballot in mail today: Larkin,Palmeiro,McGriff,Morris,Trammell

…and it makes your head hurt. Larkin is absolutely deserving and Trammell is defensible; I don’t want to have the Morris argument again. But you’ll notice that he has two first basemen… and neither of them are Jeff Bagwell. My first thought was, “wait, are you really keeping Bagwell out because of a pie-in-the-sky guess that he was a steroid user while actually voting for the busted Rafael Palmeiro?” As it turns out, no; Nightengale says that he would vote for a suspected PED user. His objection to Bagwell is more due to his on-the-field play.

Palmeiro’s numbers across board are much greater than Bagwell’s.

…ookay. It’s clear that Nightengale is only looking at home runs and (completely meaningless) RBIs, since that’s about the only areas where Palmeiro comes out ahead. It’s certainly not in slash lines:

Bagwell: .297/.408/.540 (.948)
McGriff: .284/.377/.509 (.886)
Palmeiro: .288/.371/.515 (.885)

Or advanced offensive stats:

Bagwell: .406 wOBA
McGriff: .382 wOBA
Palmeiro .380 wOBA

Or WAR, thanks to Bagwell’s superior defense, and let’s show that in a nice WAR graph from FanGraphs:

As Bill from The Platoon Advantage put it,

To match Raffy’s career #s Bags would have to find a way to hit .264/.235/.439 in 6.5 more seasons, somehow dropping 89 BB/HBP

So really, the only thing at all Palmeiro was better in – besides, you know, for lying to Congress – was collecting more homers. Except what Nightengale seems to be forgetting is that A) Palmeiro had nearly 4,000 more plate appearances than Bagwell did to accumulate them, and B) Bagwell spent the first decade of his career hitting in the cavernous AstroDome, a pitcher’s park nearly on par with PetCo Park.

So sure, Palmeiro’s a better candidate, if you stick your fingers in your eyes and ignore just about all of the facts. And people wonder why the Hall of Fame has lost a lot of its luster?

Ronald Belisario Is Suspended, And That’s Great News

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Via Steve Dilbeck, we’ve learned that if Ronald Belisario actually does show up to camp this year, he’ll be suspended for the first 25 games of the season. We don’t know exactly why that is or even when the offense took place – I’m guessing it’s not a coincidence that this comes out the day after we find out he might actually get a visa – but considering his history and how much of his last three years have been shrouded in mystery, it’s not exactly a surprise.

While it’s rare that a suspension can be seen as a positive,  I think in this case, it is, because it gives the Dodgers more time to evaluate what they have. Belisario is a completely unreliable quantity at this point, following up his surprisingly good 2009 with an underwhelming (though, I’d argue, somewhat underrated) 2010 and a completely lost 2011. Though he’s been pitching in Venezuelan leagues, it’s anyone’s guess what kind of shape he’s in or if his demons are truly behind him. Since he’s out of options, the team would be forced to carry him on the roster, trade him, or expose him to waivers if they wanted to send him down. The suspension allows them until about the end of April to evaluate him under the eyes of team personnel, either in Los Angeles or Arizona, and it also gives them time to see how the rest of their bullpen shakes out, because someone always gets hurt or is brutally ineffective in the first month.

It’s not like they’re desperate for him immediately, anyway. The Dodgers usually carry seven relievers as part of a twelve-man staff, and if the season were to start today, five spots in the bullpen are all but guaranteed:

R Javy Guerra
R Kenley Jansen
R Matt Guerrier
R Blake Hawksworth
L Scott Elbert

The sixth man is almost certainly going to be Josh Lindblom, who impressed in his debut last year, though since he has options remaining his spot isn’t completely guaranteed. The final spot, as usual, will be a battle between non-roster invites like John Grabow, Wil Ledezma, Angel Guzman & friends, young players pushing for a job like Nathan Eovaldi & Shawn Tolleson, and whatever veteran reliever Ned Colletti insists he’s still going to bring in, whether it’s Mike MacDougal or someone like him.

Anyway, it’s all moot until Belisario actually shows up, which I won’t believe until I physically see him on the mound. If he’s not as good as his 2009 2.04 ERA would have you believe, nor was he as poor as his 2010 5.04 mark would suggest, and he could be an interesting piece out of the ‘pen. Frankly, I don’t mind waiting an extra month to find out.