2011 December « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness

Winter Meetings Day Two: Aaron Harang Heads North

December 6, 2011 at 7:39 am | Posted in Aaron Harang | 50 Comments

When we left off last night, the Aaron Harang signing wasn’t yet official, since it appeared Harang might be holding out for three years. This morning, Jon Heyman confirms that it’s done for two years and about $12m (though no details are out yet, you can bet that’s heavily backloaded). As you can imagine, I’m not thrilled, though I feel basically the opposite about this as I did with Jerry Hairston: Hairston is a usable piece who might not have been the best fit for the hole on this roster, while Harang fills a very real need – a veteran starter – yet might not be the best person to do so.

Harang, as you might know, was a very solid starter for Cincinnati between 2005-07, before his career fell apart with the Reds between 2008-10. That led him to the place where every troubled pitcher goes to resuscitate their career, San Diego, where the Padres gave him one year at $3m. I want to stop right here if I can, though, because I keep reading that Harang’s 2011 was a “comeback” or a “bounceback” or a “rebound”, and that’s simply not true.

Let’s look at Harang’s last three seasons in Cincinnati, where his career went south, and then his lone year in San Diego, shall we?

As you can see, he’s been largely the same pitcher over the last four years, if anything trending downward, since he’s walking more and striking out less. Not that a FIP in the 4s isn’t usable from a back-of-the-rotation guy, of course, but where is all of the business about his big comeback coming from? Oh, right: stats that don’t matter. Let’s take another look at that chart…

And there it is. Harang was only slightly better in 2011 than he was in 2010 (if even at all, since the K/BB stats are identical), but the change in ballpark environment (not to mention the improvement in the defense behind him, since the Padres were one of the better fielding teams in baseball last year) had a huge impact on his unadjusted and meaningless ERA and W/L totals.

Don’t believe me? In 17 starts at Petco last year, Harang allowed opponents to put up a line of just .240/.304/.380, largely due to a BABIP that was a below-average .252. On the road, that line shot up to .317/.374/.504, with the resulting OPS of .878 meaning that the average batter he saw away from San Diego produced like Robinson Cano, Josh Hamilton, Alex Gordon, or Jose Reyes, all of whom put up seasons like that this year.

The Padres recognized this and declined to exercise their portion of a 1/$5m mutual option (which I’ll grant, Harang wasn’t going to accept anyway). The Dodgers apparently didn’t, and where the team that should know Harang best wouldn’t even pay 1/$5m, the Dodgers saw fit to go with 2/$12m – twice the years, and more than twice the money. Where’s your Alex Tamin now?

Worse, the contract just doesn’t make sense in the marketplace. Just take a look at Freddy Garcia, who put up very similar stats to Harang last year (FIP of 4.12 vs 4.17, K/BB of 2.13 vs 2.14) while pitching in the tough AL East; Garcia returned to the Yankees last month for one year and $5m. Or even look closer to home at the 2/$10m Chris Capuano got from the Dodgers last week. Capuano’s 2011 was arguably superior (FIP of 4.04 vs 4.17, K/BB of 3.17 vs 2.14) plus he’s a lefty who’s a few months younger than Harang, yet Harang walks away with more money. Why? There’s no other answer here than “once again, wins and ERA garnered far too much attention.”

Now, I don’t want to sound like there’s no utility to this deal at all. I didn’t want Nathan Eovaldi to start the year in the rotation, so I acknowledge the need for another starter, and it’s not like Dodger Stadium is some hitter’s paradise. Harang, if healthy (a big if, since he’s spent at least a month on the DL in each of the last four seasons) can provide some use as a starter who can put up a FIP in the mid-4′s, which doesn’t sound like much but can be harder to find than you’d think. It’s just hard to see how this helps the team win, since now that Hiroki Kuroda is gone, you have Clayton Kershaw followed by the always uncertain Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly, and two guys like Ted Lilly. Sure, it’s nice to say that these guys will be fine in the NL West because they still get to pitch in San Diego and San Francisco, but you’ve now picked up three of the most homer-prone pitchers in baseball – and Kershaw alone can’t pitch every game in Colorado and Arizona.

For all the money Colletti has spent on 30+ veterans this winter, I’m not sure the team is even one game better for it. But if not better, they’re at least older and more expensive. So that’s something, right?

Dodgers Add Jerry Hairston, Jr.

December 5, 2011 at 6:27 pm | Posted in Jerry Hairston | 30 Comments

So much for a slow first day of the winter meetings, right? As if jettisoning Jamie Hoffmann wasn’t enough, the Dodgers officially signed utilityman Jerry Hairston and reportedly are close to picking up starting pitcher Aaron Harang. Since the Harang deal isn’t final – the last report I saw said that the Dodgers are offering two years, but Harang is looking for three, which, good lord – we’ll focus on the deal we know about for sure, two years and $6m for Hairston, 36 in May. (Dylan Hernandez reports that like all Dodger contracts, it’ll be backloaded as $2.25m/$3.75m, which is tough to swallow when his previous high salary was $2.5m six years ago.)

Taken on its own merits, I don’t have a big issue with this signing. Hairston’s a useful enough piece, one who adds flexibility to a bench with his ability to play six positions with varying degrees of success, and on a team with so many questions in the infield, that flexibility will likely come in handy. His offensive performance has been all over the place – OBP of .384 in 2008 and .344 in 2011, but also .315 in 2009 and .299 in 2010 – but that’s generally to be expected from a bench piece, since you’re not acquiring him to be a starter. He’s being paid to generate about 1.5 WAR over the life of the contract, and since he put up 1.2 fWAR last year and 1.5 in 2010, it seems like he could at least earn the value. I don’t like the second year of the deal, though I admit that it was likely he’d have received that from someone else. (And, not that I care about this type of thing as much as some, he seems really excited to join the Dodgers, at least according to these quotes that SBNation‘s Amy K. Nelson collected.)

So while it’s probably not what I would have done, Hairston’s a decent fit on a National League bench, so fine. Welcome aboard, new Jamey Carroll.

Here’s the thing, though. While Hairston by himself might be okay, it does make you question just what the plan was for this offseason, because these moves don’t happen independently of each other. In Hairston, you have a versatile defender who can sorta-but-not-really hit. In Mark Ellis, you have a good defensive second baseman who can sorta-but-not-really hit. And to round it out, you have Adam Kennedy, who can kind of play a few positions but absolutely cannot hit.

Basically, if you have Hairston, then what in the hell is Adam Kennedy for? Kennedy was completely useless when he was signed, and it looks even worse now; I’ve had readers defending him by saying that it’s only $800k, but that’s not the point. The point is, he was signed to a major-league deal before the end of November when there was absolutely no need for him to have been, and now that roster spot is lost. Now there’s no chance to bring in an offensive counterpart to Hairston on the bench, like a Wilson Betemit or someone similar. Hairston could be decent, but on this team, he’s just another in a long line of utility infielders who can’t really bring the offensive punch the Dodgers need.

Worse, the age trend here is terrifying. Kennedy is 36 in January. Matt Treanor is 36 in March. Hairston turns 36 in May, which is also when Harang is 34. Ellis is 35 in June. Juan Rivera will be 34 in July. Chris Capuano is 34 in August. That’s seven signings (assuming Harang arrives), and not a single one younger than Capuano. This group is also combining for something around $18.5m in 2011, and with backloading, it could be over $26m in 2013.

So sure, welcome aboard, Jerry. Sorry you’re getting blowback because you happen to be another in a series of questionable decisions by a general manager whose moves are increasingly difficult to reconcile.

Winter Meetings, Day One (Updated)

December 5, 2011 at 6:39 am | Posted in Aaron Harang, Alberto Castillo, Clayton Kershaw, Jamie Hoffmann, Jerry Hairston, Matt Dominguez, Ronald Belisario, Winter Meetings | 61 Comments

Update, 3:23pm PST:

And there it is. According to Ken Rosenthal, Hairston is done for 2/$6m. But there’s also this:

#Dodgers still working on Harang. Deal expected to be north of Capuano. Two years, $12M range

You know why? WINS AND ERA. Harang wasn’t better than Capuano last year. But he’s getting paid like he was because he had more wins and a lower ERA. Aaaaaaand head asplode.

Update, 3:03pm PST:

More fun! The Dodgers reportedly have a two-year offer out to utilityman Jerry Hairston, Jr. In theory, I don’t mind this, because unlike Adam Kennedy, Hairston has some offensive value and can play all over. But what’s with all of the two-year deals? Capuano got two. Mark Ellis got two. Harang reportedly will get two. Hairston, now, might have two. I’d say that Ned Colletti was looking to take next winter off entirely… if not for the fact that I desperately hope that’s happening regardless.

Update, 2:16pm PST:

Ken Gurnick at dodgers.com with news of two additional non-roster invites in addition to Shane Lindsay and Wil Ledezma, who we already knew about: pitcher Jose Ascanio and infielder Jeff Baisley. I’d be lying if I said I’d ever heard of either. Baisley, 29 this month, is a corner infielder who had a brief cup of coffee with the 2008 A’s, but has otherwise spent the last four years inflating his stats in the rarified air of the PCL. Ascanio, 27 in May, has seen big-league time in 46 games over parts of four seasons with the Pirates, Cubs, and Braves. In 30 games (five starts) for Pittsburgh’s Triple-A club in 2011, he struck out 50 in 44 innings, so that’s something. More Albuquerque fodder.

Update, 12:31pm PST:

All sorts of reports are landing that the Dodgers are nearing a deal with Aaron Harang. We’ll see how the dollar figures land before we judge; Harang was pretty bad outside of Petco last year, but you just cannot start the season with Nathan Eovaldi in the rotation. (Also, I suppose this answers the Hoffmann waiver as well.)

Also, hey, Harang, Ted Lilly, and Chris Capuano in the same rotation? Man, this team is totally going to win that 2006 wild card.

Update, 12:13pm PT:

Well, here’s a thing: per the official Colorado Rockies Twitter, the Dodgers have lost outfielder Jamie Hoffmann on waivers to their division rivals. This is the second time the Dodgers have said goodbye to Hoffmann, who was claimed by the Yankees in the 2010 Rule 5 draft before being returned before the end of camp. I’ve always felt that Hoffmann could have been useful as a reserve outfielder with a little pop who could play solid defense at all three positions, but he never really got a chance with the big club despite plenty of turnover around Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier.

The 40-man roster was full until Hoffmann was lost, and today was the deadline to set the 40-man before Thursday’s Rule 5 draft, making it possible the Dodgers are setting up for a claim. That, or another free agent signing, I suppose.

Update, 10:05am PT:

Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com reports the Dodgers are close to signing former Baltimore & Arizona reliever Alberto Castillo to a minor-league deal. In 79 MLB games over parts of the last four seasons, he’s got a 5.02 FIP and 1.78 K/BB, so he’ll be Triple-A filler at best. Despite his limited MLB experience, he’ll turn 37 next July; after some minor league time in the Giants & Yankees systems from 1994-98, he didn’t turn up again in American affiliated baseball until 2008.

Update, 9:50am PT:

This isn’t really a winter meetings rumor, but still fun to share. John Sickels has released his top 20 Dodger prospect list over at Minor League Ball, and to no one’s surprise Zach Lee tops the chart. Sadly, neither Tim Federowicz or the two relievers obtained in the Trayvon Robinson trade even make the top 20. It’s worth a click to see all of Sickels’ comments; here’s how he sums up the system:

The Dodgers farm system isn’t in terrific condition, but it’s not bad, either. They have good strength in right-handed starting pitching: Lee, Eovaldi, Webster, Gould, Sanchez, and Withrow could all develop into workhorse starters and perhaps more. Lee has the best projection and gets the highest grade, but all of these guys have the stuff to succeed, if they stay healthy, of course. There are also several impressive relief arms, beginning with Josh Lindblom who has already shown what he can do in the majors. Keep a close eye on sleeper prospect Red Patterson, who I might bump up to a C+.

Chris Reed and the now-overlooked Aaron Miller provide some southpaw balance as potential mid-rotation starters. Lefty efficiency specialist Mike Antonini is a Grade C type, but was added to the 40-man roster and has the potential to be a surprise. Guys like him sometimes pitch better with a major league defense behind them than they do in the minors, at least in short stretches.

The system is a lot weaker with position players. There are some exciting tools guys (Baldwin stands out) in the organization, but only Silverio and Pederson have shown much polish, the former after a long struggle. Pederson could have the highest grade a year from now if he performs well in full-season ball. There is a group of interesting power hitters (Songco, Smith, Van Slyke, Russell, possibly Dickson) who put up big numbers, but have flaws in their approach, are old for the level, or lack the tools to interest scouts. They should at least get a role player out of that group, although which one it will be is hard to say. Catching prospect Gorman Erickson needs a lot more attention than he’s received. Baseball America loves Tim Federowicz. I respect his glove and he’ll have a long career, but I don’t see his bat being good enough for him to get beyond role player status.

Original post:

As we’ve done in years past around here, I’ll do something of a “live blog” format each day of the winter meetings, since the news and rumors tend to fly so fast that it’s the only way to keep track of what’s going on. As each ludicrous, unbelievable story from a “source” flows in, I’ll update the post as warranted.

Let’s get the party started with a few notes:

** The Marlins beat everyone to the punch by signing Jose Reyes to a reported 6/$106m deal last night, which is probably going to result in Hanley Ramirez moving to third base while Chris Coghlan and Emilio Bonifacio handle center field. This has nothing to do with the Dodgers – though as a baseball fan, I have to admit I’m enjoying seeing the Marlins make some moves, given that they already have Heath Bell and are reportedly still attempting to get Albert Pujols and a starting pitcher – but assuming that Ramirez does agree to the move, that means that 2007 first-round pick Matt Dominguez is going to get blocked at the hot corner. Though he’s reportedly one of the best defensive third basemen around, the Chatsworth product has never really lived up to his offensive hype in the minors, hitting just .255/.325/.418 in parts of five seasons on the farm. However, he made his MLB debut last year and is only three months past his 22nd birthday, and the Dodgers have absolutely nothing at the position in the minors, so I’d be interested in checking in to see if he could be picked up relatively cheaply.

** From the “same time next year?” files: Ken Gurnick reports that Ronald Belisario, missing in action since the end of 2010 with visa issues, is still trying to return to the Dodgers. In other news, I want a date with Alison Brie. Seriously though, if he’s able to get past his legal concerns and return to the US, he’d be a welcome addition, since he was so good in 2009 and a bit underrated due to ERA in 2010. I have no idea if the Dodgers would even be interested in him at this point, and it’s hard to blame them if they’ve decided to simply wash their hands of him. Still, the performance he’s capable of for the minimum salary is intriguing.

Of course, since it’s likely he never gets his visa issues sorted out, this is probably a conversation that’s not even worth having.

** Don’t get too excited about this, but it’s worth at least sharing Buster Olney’s tweet from this morning…

The representatives for Clayton Kershaw have had early contact with the Dodgers about a long-term deal,but no serious talks have taken place

While this would of course be fantastic, I find it incredibly unlikely that Kershaw could get an extension in the same winter as Matt Kemp, especially considering all of the payroll issues. As Olney says, the talks aren’t too serious yet anyway. If Kershaw did sign this winter, he could probably expect something like a 5/$80m deal.

** Finally, a reminder to keep some perspective this week. We’re all well aware by now that the offseason rumors we see in the age of Twitter are 90% posturing and BS; well, with all of the execs, agents, and media in the same place – and let’s face it, the same bars – you can be sure that the rumors that come from this week are to be taken with a grain of salt 100 times as large. (Which I suppose makes them 9000% posturing and BS, which, while mathematically impossible, sounds about right.)

Just remember, on the first day alone of the meetings last year, these were two actual rumors that popped up:

Tony Jackson with our first “HOLY CRAP!” moment:

Multiple sources told ESPNLosAngeles.com’s Tony Jackson on Monday that the Brewers are talking to the Dodgers about a deal that would send Prince Fielder from Milwaukee to Los Angeles for Loney and embattled closer Jonathan Broxton.

Yes, yes, yes, a million times yes.

and:

RT @washingnats: #Dodgers want #Nats SS Ian Desmond and RHP Jordan Zimmermann for James Loney

HAHAHAHA. Um, and I want a pony.

So just keep that in mind this week when you see someone suggesting that Matt Guerrier might get moved for Bryce Harper, okay?

Small Needs to Fill At the Winter Meetings

December 4, 2011 at 3:40 pm | Posted in Adam Kennedy, Nathan Eovaldi | 30 Comments

While the rest of the baseball world heads to the winter meetings and focuses on C.J. Wilson, Jose Reyes, and Prince Fielder, everyone expects that the Dodgers are finished. Foolishly or not, they’ve spent their money on Juan Rivera, Mark Ellis, Matt Treanor, Adam Kennedy, and Chris Capuano, and with the payroll all but exhausted and Hiroki Kuroda looking elsewhere, public opinion is largely that Ned Colletti shouldn’t even spend his time going to Dallas because the Dodgers are done.

Still, it is the winter meetings, which means that rumors always fly – remember, last year I did basically a four-day live blog as the Dodgers were connected to tons of rumors and came away with Vicente Padilla and Tony Gwynn – and they do still have a few needs. Barring a completely unexpected trade, here’s the three items to keep an eye out for.

5th starter. With Capuano in the mix, the first four starters are set, and at the moment, Nathan Eovaldi is the 5th starter. Eovaldi showed promise in a few starts with the big club last year, but didn’t prove to me that he’s ready for a full-time gig without more seasoning. To be honest, I’m guessing that Colletti feels the same. Remember 2010, when the season started with a questionable fifth starter in Charlie Haeger behind a relatively solid front four? Haeger flamed out early and Vicente Padilla got hurt, and that’s how you ended up with 33 starts from John Ely, Carlos Monasterios, and Ramon Ortiz. Colletti recognized that misstep and attempted to overcompensate in 2011 by having six starters, bringing back Padilla and adding Jon Garland. It didn’t work out, since each got hurt (as did Rubby De La Rosa), but the intent was good, and I’m guessing that Colletti won’t want to start 2012 counting on the uncertain Eovaldi without much behind him. But who? Buster Olney suggests that Aaron Harang could still be in play, though I find it hard to see him fitting into the Dodger salary structure after declining his $5m mutual option with the Padres. This is where I’m thinking we’ll see the bulk of the rumors this week.

Backup infielder. Despite importing Kennedy, Colletti doesn’t appear to be satisfied with Justin Sellers to join him on the bench, as Tony Jackson notes:

Colletti also wants another utility player; veterans Jerry Hairston and Jack Wilson are high on the list, as is incumbent Aaron Miles.

Kennedy seems to satisfy the “veteran lefty who can’t hit or play shortstop” role that Miles had, so I doubt he’d really be in play. You never got to see the infield post I had ready to go just before Kennedy was signed, but you probably don’t need to in order to guess that I think Wilson is a completely useless piece. Hairston is more attractive than I’d initially thought, though that just might price him out of the Dodgers’ budget.

One final thing on Kennedy, and I swear I’ll drop it for a while after this: a quick timeline of his last two years.

Feb. 5, 2010: Coming off a decent 2009 with Oakland, signs a $1.25m guaranteed contract for 2010 with Washington.

2010: Hits just .249/.327/.327 for Washington, one of the worst years of his career.

Nov. 3, 2010: Nationals decline Kennedy’s $2m 2011 option.

Jan. 10, 2011: Mariners sign Kennedy to a minor-league deal with an invite to spring training; he makes the roster when the Mariners decide Dustin Ackley needs more seasoning.

Jan 27, 2011: Arrested in Newport Beach for suspicion of DUI.

2011: Hits .234/.277/.355 for Seattle, a wOBA 25 points lower than his underwhelming 2010.

Nov. 30, 2011: After not being able to find a guaranteed contract in 2011 and having a horrible season… receives a guaranteed deal from the Dodgers.

Nothing wrong with that scenario, right?

Veteran reliever. Colletti’s mentioned he’d like to add a veteran reliever, though as the Jackson piece notes, it’s not a top priority. While this immediately rings Matt Guerrier warning bells for most of us, I’m guessing it probably shouldn’t. There’s just not payroll for that kind of expenditure (one small benefit of the ownership mess, I suppose), and while my position against large contract for fungible bullpen arms is well-known, that doesn’t mean the bullpen has to be 100% young, homegrown players. If a well-traveled arm comes in on a low or non-guaranteed contract, that’s fine. This is probably the area least likely to get touched this week.

With Kennedy added, the 40-man roster is full, though that’s not really an issue. Trent Oeltjen, Jamie Hoffmann, and Ramon Troncoso could all be easily dropped, and Hong-Chih Kuo is an all-but-certain non-tender next week, with Dana Eveland likely to get non-tendered as well.

Report: Dodgers to Sign Chris Capuano to a 2/$10m Deal

December 2, 2011 at 10:32 am | Posted in Chris Capuano | 136 Comments

Per Jim Bowden, and now picked up by several others, the Dodgers are closing in on a 2/$10m deal with lefty Chris Capuano to join the starting rotation. This likely means that there is absolutely no chance that Hiroki Kuroda returns, which is simply fantastic, because now the rotation is worse than it was in 2011 yet the Dodgers were unable to get anything in return for Kuroda departing.

I could do analysis on this signing, but I basically did that already yesterday, pointing out that Capuano had a surprisingly decent 2011 despite a massive longball problem that rendered him all but unplayable outside the forgiving CitiField, so let’s get right to the jokes. Of which there are many.

Eric Stephen, TrueBlueLA:

Would rather have Kuroda back and have the Dodgers literally sign nobody else this offseason than what they have done

Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus:

I’m far more offended by any team giving Chris Capuano decent coin than a closer contract.

Chris St. John, Steal of Home:

Was expecting 1-2 years, 3-4 million. 2/10 is so bad

Now I’ll say this for Capuano, he’s not an awful guy to have at the back of your rotation. Dinger rate aside, he was able to miss some bats last year, and while 2/$10m sounds like a lot for a mediocre guy in his 30s with two zippers on his elbow, that’s really the going rate. Bruce Chen got basically the same deal, don’t forget, and I like Capuano better than Chen. For a team that absolutely had to sign someone, this contract isn’t awful, and Capuano can only be helped by Dodger Stadium and the big ballparks of San Diego & San Francisco. The alternatives are atrocious, you need to fill out your rotation with someone, and apparently you like Ted Lilly so much that you need someone just like him. In a vacuum, I don’t hate this deal as much as you’d think; in fact, the more I think about it, the more I like it. So this is all fine.

…or at least it would be, if Capuano was joining along with Kuroda to be the fifth starter, not essentially replacing him. Capuano is not Kuroda’s equal or anything close to it, so what you’ve done is downgrade the overall rotation, when it absolutely didn’t have to be this way. Just look at Ned Colletti’s comment to Ken Gurnick in Gurnick’s preview of the Winter Meetings, which is what today’s post was originally going to be about, before the Capuano news saved Gurnick from my light-hearted jabbing that he’s claiming Mike MacDougal had “a season worthy of Comeback Player of the Year honors”.

All that’s left on his frugal shopping list is an affordable replacement in the starting rotation for Hiroki Kuroda, a utility infielder like Jerry Hairston Jr. and a veteran, versatile, durable reliever.

“It’s become increasingly difficult to fit [Kuroda] in financially at this point, unless somebody gets more creative,” Colletti said.

I don’t want to keep on beating this dead horse, but “creative”? Here’s creative, how about don’t give Juan Rivera the ludicrous sum of $4.5m? How about not handing Juan Uribe & Matt Guerrier over $30m last winter? How about thinking before bringing in Adam Kennedy, and not that $800k is a lot of money, but that roster spot is now more expensive and worse than it’d have been with an internal option. Where’s your “advanced quantitative analysis” now, Ned? You cut back on some of those stupid, needless moves, and you can bring back Kuroda and still sign Capuano as your #5, which would have been perfectly acceptable. (To say nothing of the inability to bring in a bigger fish like a Prince Fielder, because while the ownership mess is bringing down payroll, it’s not like this club is operating on a $45m Pirates-esque budget here.)

Again, this isn’t a terrible deal on its own, nor is a 2/$10m contract so large that it’s singlehandedly a disaster. It’s just yet more evidence that this team could have been so much better over the last six seasons if Colletti had simply kicked back, cracked open a beer, and done absolutely nothing at all – and it’s why when people ask me if I’m excited that Frank McCourt is finally going to sell, I say “sure I am, but mostly because a new owner usually means a new front office.”

Fishing At the Bottom of the Starting Pitching Market

December 1, 2011 at 8:40 am | Posted in Hiroki Kuroda, Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang, Jeff Francis, Paul Maholm, Aaron Cook | 46 Comments

As the days go by, we’re hearing little about Hiroki Kuroda’s plan for 2012, and the longer we go, the less likely it seems that he’ll return to the Dodgers. By comparison, last year his one-year deal to return was all but finalized by November 13. Of course, what we’ve been hearing lately is that the delay this time around is less about whether Kuroda wants to come back than it is about whether the Dodgers can even afford to pay him, as Bill Shaikin painfully pointed out yesterday:

#Dodgers parent company reports $9.9 million in “bankruptcy-related expenses” thru Oct 31. Dodgers might not have $ to bring Kuroda back.

Consider that another fun parting gift from Frank McCourt, though it’s hard to argue that the millions foolishly committed to Juan Rivera and others couldn’t have been better allocated by Ned Colletti as well.

If Kuroda doesn’t return, the Dodgers simply can’t go into the season with Dana Eveland and Nathan Eovaldi as their 4th and 5th starters (I’d prefer that neither of them be in the rotation, though that may be unavoidable), and that means that they’ll need to dip into the shallow end of the veteran free agent pool, where they’ve already been linked to Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, and Jeff Francis.

A word of warning: this isn’t going to be pretty. It never is when you’re trying to buy low on the open market.

RHP Aaron Harang, 34

Harang was once a solid workhorse for the Reds, tossing at least 211 innings for three seasons in a row until his career was derailed in 2008 in large part due to Dusty Baker forcing him into a relief appearance and making him throw 239 pitches in an eight-day span. After a feeble end to his Cincinnati career, he entered the starting pitcher equivalent of the Betty Ford Clinic – Petco Park – and voila! A superficially pretty 14-7, 3.64 record for the Padres… despite having basically identical K/9 and BB/9 rates as he did in his final season with the Reds, where he went 6-7, 5.32. Amazing what pitching in San Diego will do for a flyball-prone pitcher, isn’t it? (Shockingly, his home/road splits are large.)

Harang declined his half of a $5m player option to return to his hometown Padres in 2012, so it seems clear he’s not looking for a minimum-salary deal. (Because, you know, wins!) That said, watch him go to the Giants and go 16-8, 3.78 pitching in that ballpark.

LHP Chris Capuano, 33

You want to win a bar bet this offseason? Ask people which starting pitcher had the single most effective start of 2011, according to “Game Score”. It’s not Justin Verlander, and it’s not Clayton Kershaw; it was Capuano, who struck out 13 Braves without a walk in tossing a two-hit shutout on August 26. The two-time Tommy John survivor came back from missing all of 2008 and 2009 (and half of 2010) to throw 186 decent innings for the Mets, as the advanced stats (3.67 SIERA, 4.04 FIP) belied his 4.55 ERA. For the $1.5m contract he signed (which ended up being about $3.9m with the incentives he reached), he provided a solid and unexpected value for New York, striking out three times as many as he walked – even briefly becoming a target of a bizarre trade rumor in late September as the Red Sox desperately tried to stave off their collapse.

But there’s some warning signs here. In addition to obvious concerns about his durability – and don’t ignore that whenever he went beyond five innings last year, his ERA was north of 8 – Capuano has had a career-long issue with keeping the ball in the yard, topping out at a Lilly-esque 1.31 HR/9 last year. And when I say “Lilly-esque”, I mean, his 1.31 is exactly the same as Ted Lilly allowed, and we laughed at Lilly all year long. The cozy dimensions of CitiField helped him hide that somewhat, as he allowed seven fewer dingers at home despite pitching 17 more innings there, fueling some brutal home/road splits.

Capuano reportedly wants a two-year deal, which the Mets are seemingly unwilling to do; in a world where a similar soft-tossing lefty like Bruce Chen can pick up a two-year deal for at least $9m, it’s probably not out of the question that he’ll get it.

LHP Jeff Francis, 31

Francis has had an interesting career in the sense that while he was once massively overrated due to his 17-9 record with Colorado in 2007, he’s now somewhat underrated due to going 6-16 for the Royals in 2011. (Fun fact #1: when he won 17 games, his FIP was 4.19. When he lost 16, it was 4.10. Yay, wins!) Francis missed all of 2009 and part of 2010 due to injury, and while he was once routinely in the 86-88 MPH range, he averaged only 84.7 MPH on his fastball last year.

Predictably, he doesn’t strike anyone out – just 91 in 183 IP – and if you’re going to survive like that, you need to be sure you’re limiting the longball and keeping walks to a minimum. That’s exactly how he succeeded, allowing just 1.9 BB/9 and 0.9 HR/9 with the Royals in 2011. In theory, the Dodgers have built a solid defensive infield, which could benefit Francis since he’s not generating a lot of outs on his own. Of course, Francis operates with such little room for error that if he loses even a little of his control the results could be disastrous. Or he could be Jamie Moyer, pitching for another 20 years. Soft-tossing lefties are always so fun to try to predict. (Fun fact #2: on Baseball Reference’s Similarity Score list, Francis’ #3 comparable is Capuano. #8 is old friend Mark Hendrickson.)

LHP Paul Maholm, 30

The Dodgers haven’t been linked to Maholm, but he’s worth throwing out there now that he’s a free agent since the Pirates declined his $9.75m 2012 option. Like most of these other guys, he’s a soft-tossing lefty who doesn’t strike out very many and has decent control, but he’s been more successful because he’s great at keeping the ball in the park, averaging just 0.8 HR/9 over his career. As a groundballer, he’d do well in front of a good infield defense, though as a relatively durable starter in a winter devoid of pitching depth, he’s probably in line for a somewhat overpriced multiple-year deal. If the Dodgers can’t afford Kuroda, they’re probably not going to be paying Maholm either, since he’s going to be attractive to whomever loses out on the C.J. Wilson sweepstakes.

RHP Aaron Cook, 33

Cook, like Maholm, has not been mentioned in any reports linking him to the Dodgers that I’ve seen, and he’s now on the market after Colorado declined his $11m option. Cook is Colorado’s all-time wins leader, though in recent years he’s been sidetracked by a litany of injuries, including “a sprained toe, displaced right fibula fracture, a broken ring finger, and shoulder inflammation,” bottoming out by going 3-10 with a 6.03 ERA for the Rockies last year.

Or so it would seem, anyway. Cook’s 4.54 FIP last year isn’t all that far off from what it was during his productive years, as he was hurt by a BABIP of .345 that was far above what he’s ever seen before. When he’s right, he’s even more of an extreme groundball type that Maholm, though it remains to be seen if all of the injuries have robbed him of the ability to be even average.

******

There are, of course, plenty of other guys out there, from guys the Dodgers won’t be in on (Mark Buehrle, Roy Oswalt, Edwin Jackson, Javier Vazquez), to injury-riddled former stars (Erik Bedard, Rich Harden) to even more fungible back-end types (Zach Duke, Doug Davis, Jason Marquis, Bartolo Colon, Joel Pineiro, who somehow struck out only 3.8/9 last year).

If Kuroda doesn’t return, it seems certain that the Dodgers end up with at least one of these retreads. (Personally, I’d prefer Kuroda and one, allowing Eveland/Eovaldi to be backups, but that doesn’t sound likely.) So which? In terms of talent in the five that we looked at, I’d probably go Maholm / Capuano / Francis / Harang / Cook. Yet the Dodgers likely aren’t going to be able to afford Maholm, and the thought of guaranteeing Capuano two years to give up dingers terrifies me. So while I can’t believe I’m actually typing these words, if this is the best the Dodgers can do… I might have to go with Jeff Francis. He’s probably undervalued, coming off a 6-16 record, he made only $2m last year so he can’t be expecting a huge raise, and I love pitchers who don’t walk anyone. (I’d also take Cook on an NRI or minimum-salary lottery ticket.)

Now watch Colletti go out and get Francis, but for $18m guaranteed.