MSTI’s 2009 in Review: Relievers, Part 3

November 18, 2009 at 7:20 am | Posted in 2009 in review, Brent Leach, Claudio Vargas, Cory Wade, Travis Schlichting, Will Ohman | 6 Comments

Finally! This is the last player review segment of the year, and while I won’t pretend this one is the most interesting grouping of players you’ll read about all year, this whole series served its purpose. It allowed me to get some thoughts down on each player this year, and almost as importantly, helped fill some space between the end of the season and the start of the Hot Stove.

85toppscorywadeCory Wade (F)
(2-3, 5.53, 1.373 WHIP)

See Cory Wade in his picture over there? He looks sad. Sure, that’s a picture from 2008 (you can tell because of the 50th anniversary patch on his right arm), but maybe he just looks sad because he knows that his 2009 will in no way reflect his excellent 2008.

Really, Wade’s 2009 stands as glaring proof of two truisms: 1) that except for the best of the best, reliever performances are incredibly volatile year-to-year, and 2) Joe Torre tends to crush his new favorite toy like he’s Lennie in Of Mice and Men.

Thus, Wade’s problems were pretty clear this year. He couldn’t stay healthy (two trips to the DL for a right shoulder that bothered him even in 2008) and he wasn’t very good even when he was available (huge increases in BB/9 and WHIP, huge decrease in K/9). That being the case, part of his problems is that he was never as good as he seemed in 2008 – a .227 BABIP is completely unsustainable and was a large part of why the ERA that looked so good (2.27) was nowhere near what FIP said he should have been (3.78). This year, his luck completely changed, since the huge increase in BABIP to .294 helped turn an already lousy FIP (4.40) into a much worse ERA (5.57).

You have to wonder how much of the blame for his injuries should be heaped on Torre, because we tend to forget how much Wade was worked in 2008. Even in April, Kensai and I were both ringing the bell on this, as I said at the time…

Wade’s pitched in four games this season, and has been great in three of them (three scoreless outings of an inning apiece, allowing two hits) and awful in one (three hits and two runs in 1/3 of an inning). The poor outing was the only one that came on a back-to-back appearance, and since this is apparently the same shoulder issue that bothered him last season and in spring, you have to wonder: should we be treating him as the right-handed Hong-Chih Kuo? I’d rather live with an effective Wade who’s not available as often as everyone else than no Wade at all. Some guys just aren’t built for the constant workload, and you have to wonder if Wade falls under that category.

Wade, of course, never did come close to regaining his form for the rest of the year, and even worse, was horrible in the minors – allowing 17 ER in 22.2 AAA innings. He’ll still just be 26 when Opening Day comes, so his time has hardly passed. But he’ll likely have to prove his health in the minors again before he gets another shot at what looks to be a pretty loaded big league bullpen crew.

85toppsbrentleachBrent Leach (?)
(2-0, 5.75, 1.377)

Brent Leach is a left-handed pitcher who appeared in 38 games for the Los Angeles Dodgers of Major League Baseball.

Okay, I was tempted to just go with the Wikipedia-esque description and leave it at that, because I seriously have no recollection of Brent Leach doing anything meaningful for the Dodgers this year. Did he really get into 38 games? Jesus. My top memory of Leach is mainly the firestorm Kensai unwittingly set off by discussing his wife’s hilarious blog (which I can’t seem to find the link to anymore).

As for his pitching, he got the call from Chattanooga because he was dominating down there (1 ER and 17 K in 13 IP). Before you get too excited about that, remember that this was AA and he turns 27, well, today. (Happy Birthday!) Once he got to the bigs the strikeout rate was nice (8.4/9) but the homer rate much less so (1.3/9) and the walk rate was pretty bad (5.31/9).

Actually, he looks to have had control issues his entire career – only in 2008, as a 25-year-old in High-A ball, has he ever really been able to keep it below a walk every other inning. Still, some lefties are known to develop late, and he appears to have the stuff to miss bats, so if he can ever get a handle on that control, he might actually have a future in a bullpen to be named later.

85toppswillohmanWill Ohman (F)
(1-0, 5.84, 1.622 WHIP)

Oh, Will Ohman. I had such high hopes for you. I actually had first brought him up way back in October 2008, before any rumors had attached him to the Dodgers, in my 2009 plan:

Ohman’s a 31-year old lefty reliever and Pepperdine alum who’s made it into at least 56 games in each of the last four seasons with the Cubs and Braves, with ERA+ marks of 151, 112, 94, and 112. Plus, he’s absolutely murder on lefties (.571 OPS against in 2008), which makes him unlike Beimel (who’s actually harder on righties) and Kuo (who kills everyone, but isn’t really a situational kind of guy).

So when he became another victim of the lousy free agent market and signed with the Dodgers late in spring training, I was thrilled (and had only mentioned it about eleven times in March during the whole song-and-dance).

But there were worries from the beginning. Having missed most of spring training, Ohman was behind in his conditioning and was hit hard almost immediately. In 21 games over the first two months, he got shelled, somehow allowing a .609 SLG and .979 OPS in that time. On May 29, he went on the DL with a sore shoulder, experienced pain in his elbow during the rehab, and finally ended up having shoulder surgery in September. So clearly, that didn’t work out, and his 2010 option was obviously declined.

Still, I’m sad it didn’t work out. He had high socks, which rule in their own right, but he was also one of the funniest players the Dodgers have ever had. You know it’s good when sportswriters are breaking their own rules by cheering for him, but also check out these two videos:

So long, Will.

85toppsclaudiovargasClaudio Vargas (C)
(0-0, 1.64, 1.000 WHIP)

Sometimes you sign a mediocre veteran to a minimum salary contract, and you hope for the next Chan Ho Park or Jeff Weaver.  Sometimes you get a nice surprise like that… and sometimes you get a guy who gets this written about him in spring training…

I had a whole section on Claudio Vargas written out, mostly about how unlike Milton, Estes, and Weaver, he was given a major-league contract rather than just a spring training invite. But all that’s out the window after Monday, because Claudio Vargas has committed the unthinkable: he allowed a home run to our favorite fat sack of crap, Andruw Jones. That alone should disqualify him – and if it doesn’t, the three other homers he’s allowed in just 8.1 innings so far ought to. Odds: Andruw Jones’ weight times a hundred-to-1. 

…before being put on the 60-day DL with arm troubles, missing the first three months of the season. So to say Claudio Vargas was an afterthought is putting it lightly.

But then something crazy happened; when Vargas returned in July, he was good. Really good. In 11 innings over 8 relief outings, he allowed just 2 ER, struck out 10, and held opponents to a puny .184/.279/.263 (.542 OPS) line. Sure, it was only 11 innings, and nothing in his history suggested he could keep that up – I get that. Still, with the depleted Dodger staff at the time, any contributions were welcome.

So what happened? The Dodgers traded him for a 29-year-old backup catcher hitting .249 on Milwaukee’s AA team, Vinny Rottino. This didn’t make sense to me at the time…

Believe it or not, Vargas has actually been pretty good for the Dodgers since coming off the DL. 11 innings isn’t much of a sample size, but he’s allowed only 11 baserunners and 2 runs in that time, with a nice 10/4 K/BB ratio. I’m hardly crushed that he’s gone, but did we really need Vinny Rottino? He’s 29 with all of 18 MLB games under his belt, and he’s so highly thought of that he’s being sent to AA. You almost feel bad for the guy, being a Wisconsin native and all, now being shipped out to Chattanooga.

No, what this feels like is a way to clear out a roster spot for George Sherrill, but there were better ways to do that. DFA Jason Schmidt, for one, and no, I don’t care that he’s tonight’s starter. Send down James McDonald or Scott Elbert, if you must, because you know that either one would be right back up in a week.

Vargas wasn’t great, but he was at least useful, while Vinny Rottino looks unlikely to ever play a single game as a Dodger. I hate to act as though I’m all worked up over losing Claudio Vargas, of all people, but this move just makes no sense at all.

…and it doesn’t make any more sense now. Vargas went to Milwaukee and continued to excel (1.78 ERA, .530 OPS against), Rottino went to Chattanooga, never to be heard from, and I still can’t find a good reason for any of it.

85toppstravisschlichtingTravis Schlichting (inc.)
(0-0, 3.38, 2.250 WHIP)

Signs that your newest reliever may not have been a top prospect: when MSTI’s first mention of him was pointing out that his Wikipedia page showed him as a third baseman for the Devil Rays. (Actually, it still does. Doesn’t anyone want to go fix that?)

Schlichting actually had a pretty nice minor league season (in 29.1 IP across 3 levels, he allowed just 3 earned runs), but the less said about his major league stint the better. He got into 2 June games, managing to walk 5 and allow a Ryan Howard homer in first major league at-bat. So, yikes.

Still, those minor league numbers are nice, and it’s important to remember that he’s only been a pitcher since 2007, having turned himself around from being a failed third baseman. He’ll likely start 2010 in the minors, but don’t be surprised to see him back in the bigs – and maybe even do well enough to get himself a real Wikipedia picture.

——-

So that’s it! We’re done with reviews. I suppose I should probably write something up for Joe Torre as well, and I probably will at some point.  Damn it, why isn’t there VORM for managers?

MSTI’s 2009 in Review: Relievers, Part 2

November 16, 2009 at 7:44 am | Posted in 2009 in review, Guillermo Mota, Hong-Chih Kuo, James McDonald, Jeff Weaver, Scott Elbert | 2 Comments

Back to the bullpen – part 2 of 3!

85toppsjeffweaverJeff Weaver (A++)
(6-4, 3.65, 1.519 WHIP)

Here we have another case where keeping in mind how our judging system works is very important. It’s based on what we expected from a guy before the season, not on how he stacks up against anyone else.  Expectations for Jeff Weaver? Well, remember how bad his 2008 was; he put up a 6.07 for the Indians and 6.22 for the Brewers, allowing astounding HR/9 averages of 2.12 and 1.47, respectively. Those are the kind of numbers that get you sent to the glue factory, especially if you’re a soft-tossing righty on the wrong side of 30.

Oh, and did I mention that those 2008 numbers were put up for the AAA teams of the aforementioned squads? So you’ll forgive me for not being excited at all by his signing…

Why stop there? What’s Kelly Wunsch up to? Derek Thompson? Hell, let’s go get the whole gang back together. Rob @ 6-4-2 was the first place I saw this, so let’s give him the scoop:

Dodgers Sign Jeff Weaver To Minor-League Deal
According to MLB.com. You can’t have too much pitching, unless it’s bad.

That’s right: I’m so sick of Manny-mania and A-Rod’s pharmaceutical helpers that the signing of a washed-up veteran pitcher who was never really all that good in the first place to a minor league deal is what passes for news right now. I’m not going to get too worked up over a minor league invite, because there’s really no risk involved, but holy jesus was Jeff Weaver awful in 2008. If you saw a pitcher who put up ERAs of 6.07 and 6.22, with WHIPs of 1.62 and 1.53, for his two teams last year, you’d say something like, “Woof. That guy got eaten alive. What the hell is he doing in the bigs?” – and you’d be well within reason to do so. Now, what do you say when you find out that those numbers came in stops for Buffalo and Nashville in AAA?

Hey, maybe there’s a chance that Jeff Weaver is the 2009 recipient of the Aaron Sele/Scott Erickson/Chan Ho Park Memorial “I’m Not a Corpse Just Yet, Bitches!” Award.

And maybe I’m a Chinese jet pilot.

Funny I mention that award (why didn’t I keep naming it that?) because after spending most of April back in AAA, Weaver came up to claim that very award after just a few short weeks…

Which brings us to the 2009 recipient of the “I’m Not Dead Yet, Dammit!” Award, given annually to the over-30 Dodger pitcher plucked off the scrap heap in hopes of recapturing some glimmer of his past glory, even if that “past glory” was never all that great to begin with. Oh, I know it’s just May 6 and it’s only been 9 innings, but A) hey, it’s been a great 9 innings and B) if we award this now, we can avoid having to consider Eric Milton or Shawn Estes for it later.

So ladies and gentlemen, allow me to present to you, Jeff Weaver. Mr. Weaver is more than qualified for this award, having not had a league-average season since 2004, and bottoming out last season by toiling away in the minors all year long – and even failing at that, putting up a 6.17 ERA for two AAA teams. While it’s not a requirement that the recipient be a former Dodger, it does seem to be tradition, which Weaver fulfilled by pitching in Blue in 2004-05. It’s also a requirement that the idea of his signing seems so ridiculous that it’s all we can do to not laugh out loud.

Though it was probably a bit premature to hand out the award so soon, Weaver proved he was the best candidate by stepping in whenever the Dodgers needed him all season. Need a starter? Weaver filled that role 7 times, going 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA. How about a long reliever? 47.1 more innings, 3.99 ERA.

Now, let’s not make the mistake of thinking Weaver was good, because a 1.519 WHIP is actually kind of lousy. Still, that’s besides the point here. Weaver’s career was officially DOA, and he managed to at least be a valuable contributor to a playoff team, including nice work in the NLDS. So you better believe he deserves his A++.

For next year, I won’t mind at all if he moves on. If he’s so intent on being a Dodger that he’ll come back for a non-guaranteed invite, then by all means, but he’s not worth giving any real money to. Here’s a thought, though; let’s sign him as a part-time player who only pitches at home. How much does this guy like Dodger Stadium? At home, he allowed just a .681 OPS for a 2.93 ERA. On the road? .947, 4.64. Yikes.

85toppshongchihkuoHong-Chih Kuo (B)
(2-0, 3.00, 1.133 WHIP)

I don’t know why I bother writing something new for Kuo every year. We all know the story by now; he’ll be great when he’s available, but he’ll always miss at least a few weeks with his held-together-by-spit-and-duct-tape left elbow.

2009 was more of the same. After an April that wasn’t as bad as the 6.75 ERA made it seem (scoreless outings in 5 of 7 chances), Kuo missed all of May and June, and most of July, with soreness in that elbow – as though it could possibly have been anything else. Don’t forget how that happened, of course – when he tried to warm up in the bullpen, only 4 of 15 tosses were catchable by the receiver, and 2 actually ended up on the field, interrupting the game.

Kuo finally returned on July 27, and from then on was his usual unhittable self. No, really – hitters had just a .188/.266./271 line against him. The Dodger trainers actually started calling him “Cockroach”, a term that’s much more respectful than it sounds, referring as it does to his seeming ability to overcome anything.

Kuo’s acknowledgement of the work the Dodger medical staff does for him is actually of tantamount importance, because he’s arbitration-eligible this offseason. It’s hard to imagine the Dodgers wanting to commit many millions of dollars to a guy who might be injured as much as he’s available, but if Kuo is intent on staying, he might be willing to sign a lower-salaried deal to remain under the care of the trainers and doctors who know him so well. You never know how many more pitches are left in that arm (he’s still just 28), but I think we’d all like to see him remain in Dodger blue for as long as possible.

85toppsguillermomotaGuillermo Mota (B…ish)
(3-4, 3.44, 1.179 WHIP)

For a mediocre 35-year-old reliever with an up-and-down history who didn’t even get consideration for the playoff roster, we sure did have a lot to say about Guillermo Mota this year. First there was the utter apathy at his signing in January…

As for the actual signing, it gets a solid “meh”. I don’t know what the contract details are, but it’s unlikely to be a huge amount of money, and Mota was basically average last year. But do we really have a shortage of guys who could do exactly what he could, for less money and without his history? I suppose we can hope that he’s going to be the next Giovanni Carrera-type who only pitches well as a Dodger.

Then, once the season got going, we spent a few weeks wondering how long he’d last, which is what carrying an ERA over 6 into June will do for you…

At the moment, I don’t care whether Mota is hopped up on steroids, PCP, or Yoo-Hoo, because whatever he’s doing, it just isn’t working. After giving up 6 hits and 3 runs in just 2 innings to blow yesterday’s game in extra innings, his ERA now stands at 7.42 and he’s given up multiple runs in 5 of his 14 appearances. He’s 35, and his WHIP is 2.175. I don’t care about his contract – it’s over. Really, if the team ever gets down below 13 pitchers, he ought to be the man to go. Will he be? I doubt it.

Indeed he was not, for just a week later…

There’s one thing I’d like to touch upon: the continued employment of Guillermo Mota. We’ve mentioned how horrible he is before around here, and I’ve hardly been alone in that – even before Sunday’s disaster raised his ERA to 9.00, with 11 ER in his last 8.2 IP.

But whether or not Guillermo Mota is a terrible pitcher right now isn’t really the issue, nor is the thought that he hasn’t really been effective in nearly five years – or one steroid suspension ago. No, the question is, why haven’t the Dodgers done anything about it?

The “Sunday disaster” I referred to above was the May 17th debacle in which Mota allowed 4 ER in 1.2 IP, getting to that nice round 9.00 ERA. I still don’t know how he managed to last as long as he did, but there was one Dodger who did do something about it: Brad Ausmus, of all people.

And you had to figure that, sooner rather than later, the axe was going to fall. But then a funny thing happened; in his next appearance, 5 days later against the Angels, Mota threw a scoreless inning. Then another, two days later, also against the Angels, and another the following day in Colorado. Before you knew it, Mota had run off 11 scoreless outings in a row – a streak which has now made it to 18 of 19. In those 19 games, Mota’s ERA is a miniscule 0.41, allowing just 10 hits and a .406 OPS in 22 innings – with a remarkable 17/4 K/BB ratio. An ERA that was 9.00 after 15 games is now 3.89 after 34.

So what the hell happened? It’s not the first time Mota has ripped off a hot streak after hitting the skids – unfortunately, the last time that happened, it was immediately followed by a 50-game steroid suspension. (Seriously, check out the timeline. It couldn’t be more incriminating if he had called a national press conference to show people exactly how he injected.) For a pitcher turning 36 this month, showing no ability to be successful whatsoever, and with his history, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to think he’d made a desperate attempt to stick in the bigs, no matter what the cost.

Fortunately for us, there’s a far less sordid answer to this turnaround – Brad Ausmus, pitching coach extraordinaire. For you see, Ausmus was the catcher on that disastrous night in Miami…

Mota said teammate Brad Ausmus told him that when Ausmus faced Mota in the past, he had trouble picking up the ball until it was almost being released. But in catching Mota this year, Ausmus said he picked up the ball sooner.

“That was a good tip right there,” said Mota, who huddled with Honeycutt and bullpen coach Ken Howell. Honeycutt went to the archives, digging up video of Mota pitching for the Dodgers in his first stint in 2004 and ‘05.

Mota viewed the video at home and on the plane during the club’s recent trip and discovered that he no longer was swinging his leg or holding his left arm high.

Hard to believe that such minor changes could have such dramatic effects, but there it is. Mota wasn’t even a big-league quality pitcher beforehand, and since he’s been one of the most effective relievers in baseball.

The turnaround is just insane, if you look at it. As I said, the ERA stood at 9.00 on May 17th. Between that day – the day that Ausmus “fixed” him – and Mota being placed on the DL with an ingrown toenail on September 1, Mota was dominating. In 42 games, he had a 1.53 ERA and allowed opponents the miniscule line of just .168/.233/.292.

Oh, and he threw at Prince Fielder, causing Fielder to attempt to storm the Dodger clubhouse. So there was that.

I have to admit – I’m intrigued by his turnaround this year. Still, he’ll be 36 in 2010. If he’s willing to come back on a non-guaranteed contract, I’m all for giving him a shot. If someone else wants to toss him another guaranteed million, let him walk.

85toppsjamesmcdonaldJames McDonald (C-)
(5-5, 4.00, 1.492 WHIP)

You may remember back in spring training, there was a pretty hilarious battle for the fifth starter’s role, including such luminaries as Jason Schmidt, Shaun Estes, Eric Milton, Eric Stults, Claudio Vargas – and our man James McDonald. We made no secret of our preference for McDonald at the time, saying…

James McDonald. I know, Rick Honeycutt all but announced that McDonald would start off in the bullpen, just like Chad Billingsley. It doesn’t change my opinion that he’s the man I’d like to see in the role more than anyone else listed here, so I’m still including him for comparison’s sake. The thing to remember here is that, even though most casual fans have been hearing about Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw about ten times longer than they have McDonald, James is just three months younger than Billingsley and 3.5 years older than Kershaw. The point is, he’s not that young, and we all remember how impressive he was in his stint in the playoffs last year. He’s off to somewhat of a rough spring start, allowing 4 earned runs in 5.2 innings, but that 5/0 K/BB ratio is tasty. I don’t really mind starting off our young pitchers in the bullpen, but I also don’t think that making him the 5th starter is really unfair to his development, either. Odds: 100,000-1, despite probably being the best candidate.

Of course, as the old and busted among that herd quickly got thinned out, McDonald’s chances skyrocketed, to the point that just over a week later, I was painting him as the favorite, saying…

* James McDonald is the man! I’ve been hoping that McDonald would win this competition for some time (see: here and here) but I never really thought he’d have a prayer. But after blowing away Cleveland yesterday, facing the minimum nine batters over three innings, he’s squarely put himself in the mix – and if you believe Tony Jackson, McDonald’s actually in the lead. I’ve always felt the reason that they didn’t want McDonald winning the spot is that the team preferred to not have 3/5 of its starting rotation being under 25, though of course I would love that. Besides, as I mentioned previously, McDonald’s not that young – just a few months younger than Billingsley. He’s been the Dodger Minor League Pitcher of the Year in each of the last two seasons, and considering that the 5th starter spot comes up only four times in April, isn’t that the perfect time to get him going? Let’s go James!

Win he did, and he launched his major league career by being the immediately successful pitcher we all knew he could be. By which I of course mean, “was so bad – in 13.1 IP over 4 starts, allowed 13 ER and 14 BB against just 6 K – that he was out of the rotation by the end of the month and back in the minors by mid-May.”

So, it didn’t start out that smoothly. Still, there’s much more to the James McDonald story this year. He resurfaced in the bigs at the end of June, remaining in the bullpen for the rest of the year. The turnaround was startling; after a 8.78 ERA in his short time as a starter, he put up an excellent 2.72 as a reliever. Where he’d walked more than twice as many as he’d struck out as a starter, he completely turned that around out of the bullpen, striking out 48 to 20 free passes allowed.

For a player who didn’t turn 25 until after the season ended, that’s a pretty impressive stretch, and it shows that the talent is still there. He certainly wouldn’t be the first rookie to falter after being thrown directly into the Opening Day rotation. I’d still like to see him get another crack at the rotation, but if not, you at least know you’ve got a quality bullpen arm or a nice piece of trade bait.

85toppsscottelbertScott Elbert (C-)
(2-0, 5.03, 1.322 WHIP)

Here’s a case where the stats are very misleading, because Elbert’s line looks pretty lousy, giving him a 6.66 career ERA over 25.2 IP. Elbert’s year is a lot more complicated than that, though. He had four seperate stints with the Dodgers, and the first one was disastrous – three April outings ended up with five runs allowed in 6.1 innings. He got three more appearances in July, three more in August, and ten more in September.

ERA is useless in a situation like that, because the small sample size means that any runs allowed are skewed far too highly. No, what’s important is what Elbert did against the men at the plate, and in that regard he fared better, because anytime you have a 23-year-old lefty striking out more than a man per inning, you know you’ve got some real talent there.

What’s more in question is how that talent is going to be used in Elbert’s future. Despite appearing only out of the ‘pen in LA, he was a starter in the minors, and very nearly picked up a start for the Dodgers in August. Either way, he should be in the bigs full-time in 2010, another year off of major 2007 arm surgery. Like McDonald, you know he’s got the skills to succeed in the bigs, and whether that’s as a starter or reliever remains to be seen.

Next! Will Ohman’s failure! Cory Wade’s trail of tears! Claudio Vargas was apparently a Dodger this year!  And MSTI tries vainly to write something about Brent Leach and Travis Schlichting!

MSTI’s 2009 in Review: Relievers, Part 1

November 14, 2009 at 1:57 pm | Posted in 2009 in review, George Sherrill, Jonathan Broxton, Ramon Troncoso, Ronald Belisario | 7 Comments

We’ve got 14 pitchers who fit in the ‘relievers’ group, so we’re splitting them up into three groups. Today, you get the best of the best, and then the next two rounds, you get to wonder why I devoted entire posts to talking about Brent Leach and Travis Schlichting. Hooray!

85toppsjonathanbroxtonJonathan Broxton (A-)
(7-2, 2.61, 0.961 WHIP, 36 sv)

Rather than focus on how Broxton’s season ended, let’s not forget how it started. Remember, many people (not me, though!) had doubts about how Broxton would do in his first season as a full-time closer, based partly on the ridiculous notion that the fact that he’d blown 8 saves in just 22 chances in 2008 mattered. If it’s not obvious why that’s irrelevant, it should be: as Takashi Saito’s setup man for much of the year, Broxton rarely had the opportunity to get a save; he could either get a hold or blow it. The Dodgers actually tried to hedge their bets on this by offering Trevor Hoffmann a contract to come in and be the closer.

Of course, Broxton was more than just fine as closer; he quickly jumped into the ranks of the elite. No qualifying pitcher in baseball struck out more batters per nine than his 13.5, and no National League reliever topped his 5.032 WXRL(Huston Street, his closest competitor, was nearly 20% behind at just 4.112). He was, by one measure, the toughest pitcher in the entire NL to hit – no other qualifying pitcher topped his .479 OPS against. The scary part is that his numbers could have been even better, because there’s evidence that the defense behind him let him down. His 2.61 ERA is fine enough, but his defense-independent ERA (i.e., what his ERA should have been based on his peripherals) was just 2.08.

Not to completely overwhelm with the stats, but here’s one more that’s just too absurd to ignore: hitters trying to attack Broxton at Dodger Stadium in 2009 had absolutely no chance. Their line against him in LA this year was a horrific .095/.146/.101. That’s, uh… pretty good.

We can’t ignore the elephant in the room, of course – another playoff failure against the Phillies. He had a job to do in that crucial Game 4 of the NLCS, and he failed. No question about it. Still, the reactions to that inning were completely out of control, ranging from “he’s scared of Matt Stairs” to “he doesn’t know how to win”, which are all of course ludicrous. You’re talking about the best closer in the NL (and top-5 in MLB) who breezed through 90% of the playoffs (1 ER and 0 BB allowed in his first 5 outings), with a great playoff history (.591 OPS allowed and a 12/4 K/BB ratio in 11 postseason games the last two seasons) who gave up a poorly-timed walk, hit a batter, and finally allowed a single to a former NL MVP. That sucked, no doubt, but that’s enough to want to get people to give up on guy who’s as good as Broxton? It’s pure insanity. No closer is perfect – none of them – and you hope to get a guy who’s as close to it as you can. Broxton’s one of the best in the business, and I guarantee you that anyone you think about replacing him with would not be as good. It’s a fact.

So yes, Broxton gets his A- because he deserves it. The blown NLCS game is a blemish on an otherwise fantastic season, but one lousy inning does not undo six months of excellence.

85toppsramontroncosoRamon Troncoso (B)
(5-4, 2.72, 1.415 WHIP)

Hmm, what was my expectation of Ramon Troncoso going into the season? Well, when I predicted the Opening Day roster on April 1, I let Troncoso sneak in as the last man, saying…

#25. The 12th pitcher, AKA, “why are we taking 12 pitchers?” You know, I’m looking at this list of names, and not one of them seem more enticing to me than including Xavier Paul in the outfield for an extra kick of defense. But, since we all know that’s not happening, who are the options here? Estes and Milton? Hell, no. Josh Lindblom’s been great, but all reports have him starting back in the minors. Dodgers.com seems to think that Tanyon Sturtze and Ronald Belisario still have a prayer, but A) no. B) it’d require another 40-man spot and C) NO. So let’s not overthink things. We have a guy on the 40-man roster, who was decent in MLB last year, had a good winter, and an okay spring. Ramon Troncoso, you can come on back to LA – but make sure you don’t sign a long-term lease.

Woof. My predictions on Troncoso and Belisario? Not so great. Still, there’s a reason why everyone knows that bullpen performances are incredibly volatile from year to year. So be prepared for them to suck next year! Troncoso became a valuable member of the ‘pen, of course, getting into 73 games with a 2.72 ERA, finishing 8th in the NL in WXRL. All good, right? Great year. So let’s move on to the next guy…

…except that’s not all there is to the Troncoso story this year. He’s actually a great example of why ERA isn’t a great indicator for a pitcher (especially relievers), because his peripherals just do not support his tidy ERA. Troncoso got into 32 games as a rookie in 2008, but was basically an afterthought with a 4.26 ERA. Still, in many ways it was a better season than in 2009, because his K rate dropped (9.0 to 6.0), his BB rate rose (2.8 to 3.7), his hit rate rose (8.8 to 9.0), and of course his WHIP rose (1.289 to 1.415). In addition, his vaunted reputation as an extreme groundballer took a hit, with his GB/FB rate dropping from 3.44 to 2.10.

Striking out fewer, giving up more flyballs, and allowing more men to reach via walk and hit sounds like a sure recipe for epic disaster, yet Troncoso’s ERA dropped by about a run and a half. How’d that happen? Well, though he did a much worse job of keeping men off the bases, Troncoso did do a very good job at two other important aspects. First, he stayed away from the home run ball, despite allowing more flyballs. After allowing 2 homers in 38 IP last year, he allowed only 3 in 82.2 IP in 2009 – a huge improvement.

Second, he improved his below-average strand rate (67.1% in 2008) to become above-average in 2009 (77.7%, with the league average being about 71%). While Troncoso didn’t do a great job at actually setting down batters (a 1.415 WHIP isn’t much to write home about), he did keep the ball in the yard and keep inherited runners from scoring, leading to his nice ERA. Well, his nice ERA through July, because he fell off a cliff in the second half. On July 20, he pitched a scoreless inning against the Reds, giving him a 1.67 ERA through his 44th game. After that? 29 games worth of ineptitude, highlighted by a 5.40 ERA and a horrible line of .330/.416/.433.

So while Troncoso’s 2009 may not have been all it was cracked up to be, it was still much more than we’d expected from him. That said, he has much to prove in 2010 due to his rising peripherals and lousy second half.

85toppsronaldbelisarioRonald Belisario (A+++)
(4-3, 2.04, 1.146 WHIP)

Hi! I’m Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness, host of “Mike Scioscia’s tragic illness“. If you don’t know, that makes me a Dodger blogger and all around huge baseball dork. So when the Dodgers sign a player with a chance of making the big league squad, I usually know at least a little about them off the top of my head. At the very least, I’ve heard of them before.

And then there’s Ronald Belisario, who was such a no-name that when he made the Opening Day roster, I responded with a post entitled “Who Exactly is Ronald Belisario” – because I had no idea who he was. Of course, once I did a little research, this whole endeavor didn’t look promising:

Upon noting the signing, Pirates blog Bucs Dugout stated:

Ronald Belisario, the pitcher formerly known as “No, nobody knows why he’s on the Pirates’ 40-man,” has signed a minor-league deal with the Dodgers, Baseball America reports.

And… we’re off to a good start here. If even Pirates fans don’t think this guy is worthy of a 40-man roster spot, I’m not going into this with high hopes.

For the record, in the comments of that same post, I was hardly the only Dodger blogger who had no idea who this guy was:

I had to make a list of 50 Dodger prospects, and I had no idea who he is either. :o  Comment by kensai — April 4, 2009

That being the case, you’d have to have considered any outcome in which he kept his ERA under 10 and stayed on the big league roster all season a huge success, and that’s why he gets so many pluses after that A. Despite missing nearly a month with elbow stiffness, Belisario became a vital piece of the Dodger bullpen, relying almost entirely on his fastball. That’s no exaggeration; averaging 94.8 MPH on the heater, he threw it 85.3% of the time.

If you subscribe to the theory that his one awful outing of the year (3 ER in 0.1 IP) was caused by his arm soreness, coming as it did two days before hitting the DL, his line could have been even better. Ignoring that one game, his ERA would have been a sparkling 1.67.

Look, there’s a few minor negatives I could bring up about Belisario’s season, a few imperfections which, if rectified, could make him a star. But why bother? This was a guy no one ever heard of who was cut loose by the Pirates in Double-A, who became a huge part of a playoff bullpen. What more is there to say? 

85toppsgeorgesherrillGeorge Sherrill (A-)
(1-0, 0.65, 1.084 WHIP)

Just like we did with Jon Garland, it’s important to just look at George Sherrill’s contribution rather than the price paid when assessing his season. Giving up Josh Bell was a steep price for Sherrill, especially since Bell got even better after joining Baltimore and might be their 3B for years to come. But that’s not Sherrill’s fault – he had nothing to do with that.

No, all that’s important for George Sherrill is how he did in a Dodger uniform, and it’s hard to argue with that. You can’t ask for much better than allowing just two earned runs in 30 innings, especially when one was a solo homer to a supremely talented young player (Justin Upton), and one was not even really his fault, as I recapped after a Nationals game in September:

ERA can be as stupid as wins sometimes!

One earned run here or there doesn’t usually make for a big deal, but when you’re George Sherrill and you enter the game with a 0.40 ERA, it sure does. Sherrill’s ERA nearly doubled to 0.77 because of some awful Dodger defense – none of which went down as errors, so the run was earned.

With the scored tied in the 8th, Sherrill entered and gave up one hit, one easy flyout to left-center that Matt Kemp and Manny Ramirez let drop in between them, and then, with one out, a perfect double play ball up the middle… that Orlando Hudson threw wide of first, allowing the run to score.

In the books, that’s one run on two hits and a fielder’s choice. Funny how that doesn’t reflect two lousy defensive plays that victimized Sherrill.

Clearly, Sherrill was all but perfect in the regular season. Interestingly enough, though, the way he went about it was a complete turnaround from the way he’d pitched in Baltimore and Seattle. You hear plenty about how guys come from the AL to the NL and dominate, and Sherrill’s pretty ERA sure fits that narrative. Once Sherrill left the AL East for the NL West, his K rate actually dropped while his walk rate rose. He compensated for this by nearly doubling his GB/FB rate, changing from being a flyball pitcher, (0.65 GB/FB rate as an Oriole in 2009) to a more groundball-oriented pitcher (1.23 GB/FB rate as a Dodger). This also helped cut his home run rate by more than half, from 0.7 to 0.3.

Of course, it’s the second home run he did allow as a Dodger that will remain in the minds of Dodger fans. Thanks in large part to Joe Torre leaving Clayton Kershaw out to dry in Game 1 of the NLCS, the Dodgers were already losing when Sherrill came in for the 8th inning, so his failure didn’t get as much play as Jonathan Broxton’s Game 4 disaster. Still, the Dodgers had been mounting a comeback to cut a 5-1 deficit to 5-4, until Sherrill allowed two walks and a three-run homer to put the game all but out of reach. Like Broxton, it was a failure at the worst possible time. Also like Broxton, it shouldn’t override the fact that the rest of his Dodger tenure was outstanding.

Sherrill made $2.75m in 2009, and is arbitration-eligible. He’s likely to get a nice raise to between $4-$5m, and despite how you feel about him after the NLCS, would make a crushing 1-2 combination with Broxton next season. That said, $5m is a lot for a setup man, and the Dodgers may not be able to afford it. I, for one, hope he returns.

Next! Hong-Chih Kuo’s magic arm! Guillermo Mota’s bipolar season! Jeff Weaver’s return from the dead! And whichever other relievers I throw into part 2! It’s Relievers, Part 2!

MSTI’s 2009 in Review: Secondary Starting Pitchers

November 12, 2009 at 12:37 pm | Posted in 2009 in review, Charlie Haeger, Eric Milton, Jason Schmidt, Jon Garland, Vicente Padilla | 5 Comments

Before we get back to our season reviews, two quick items:

1) Yes, I saw Plaschke’s article about the 87-year-old Dodger scout who got his salary cut from $18,000 to $8,000, and yes, I share his disgust at the fact that this man who apparently has done so many great things is suffering a paycut while we read about Jamie McCourt’s financial atrocities. The cynic in me might add that a scout who has signed zero major leaguers since joining the Dodgers in 1994 should be pretty happy he even still has a job, but still. If he’s not worth the $10,000 for his scouting abilities, avoiding the public relations fiasco this is causing the team should surely have been worth that cash.

2) Check out SimonOnSports, where I answered some questions about the Dodger offseason.

Now, on to the rest of the starting pitchers…

V85toppsvicentepadillaicente Padilla (A+)
(4-0, 3.20, 1.220 WHIP)

Say this for Vicente Padilla: he’s not boring. When he was signed in August, the reaction was a collective, “meh?” For just $100,000, the cost was negligible, though of course there was the significant baggage of “known douchebag whose former teammates cheered the release of one of their starters even though they were in a playoff push.”

Still, don’t forget that he came in with zero expectations, and in fact worried those who thought he’d start headhunting and cause brawls, as if that made sense. Not only did he not start the latest round of riots in LA, he was actually… good. He allowed 2, 1, 2, and 0 earned runs in his first four starts. After two mediocre outings and a bullpen appearance, and with his playoff roster spot on the line, he came back with a dominating 10 strikeout performance against the Rockies on the last day of the season.

Then, he was the surprise starter in NLDS Game 3, pitching 7 scoreless innings of 4-hit ball. This earned him an even more surprising start in NLCS Game 2, in which he was again fantastic: just 1 run over 7.1 innings. At that point, it was hard to argue with the idea of starting him again in Game 5… after which it was hard to imagine that the season ended in the hands of Vicente Padilla, because he allowed 6 ER in 3 IP.

Oh, and then he was accidentally shot in the thigh in Nicaragua last week, a self-inflicted wound. Or one inflicted by his bodyguard. While hunting. Or at a shooting range. We never did find out the truth there, did we?

So, the man’s a nutjob. Still, Padilla’s 2 excellent playoff starts can’t be forgotten, and there were no clubhouse issues reported at all. I can’t imagine that he gets any sort of longterm deal with his baggage, but if he’s willing to come back on a one-year deal with an option, for a few million at most, then I’d happily welcome him back.

No guns, though, please.

85toppsjongarlandJon Garland (A-)
(3-2, 2.72, 1.266 WHIP)

I’ll admit it. We’ve done nothing but denigrate Jon Garland around here. Right from the day the trade was announced, I was against it, saying:

Did we need him? Well, last winter this would have been a “yes”, when we all saw inning-eating issues in the future and I advocated signing him for just that reason. So, yeah, we needed him in January. We needed him in April. We probably needed him in July. But now, when it’s already September? What’s he going to have, 5 starts? Maybe?

and

Survey says… We’ll of course have more to say on this once we know who the player is going back to Arizona. Right now, the feeling is more “worried” with a good chance of “horrified“. 

We’ve since found out that the player going back to Arizona is indeed Tony Abreu, which has made an unnecessary trade look even worse, and we’ve been bemoaning the situation ever since. Hey, it’s not like the team has a hole at second base, right?

But it’s important to remember that none of that is Jon Garland’s fault. Having to send Abreu back looks more and more to be directly related to the McCourt divorce disaster and the refusal to pick up any of Garland’s salary. Since the Diamondbacks didn’t save much money, they got a better player. That has absolutely nothing to do with Garland’s performance as a Dodger, and though he wasn’t really needed, he was pretty good when called upon.

In six starts as a Dodger, Garland posted a variety of stats that all would have been career highs if sustained for a full season: ERA (2.72), WHIP (1.266), K/9 (6.4), K/BB (2.89). He contributed five very good starts before a disastrous finale against San Diego. So Garland, more or less, did what he was asked to do. That’s all you can grade a man on.

Still, it should be noted that his opposition while a Dodger was hardly a murderer’s row. In 6 Dodger starts, Garland got to face Arizona (twice), Pittsburgh (twice), San Francisco, and San Diego, so let’s not act like he was shutting down the Phillies & Yankees.

85toppscharliehaegerCharlie Haeger (A)
(1-1, 3.32, 1.053 WHIP)

Free Charlie Haeger! Each year, I seem to latch onto a relatively unheralded minor leaguer or fringe vet and trumpet what they could do for the big team at a fraction of the cost of a name veteran. In 2007 and ’08, it was Delwyn Young. Later in 2008, we were also on board with Terry Tiffee. This year? Captain Knuckleball.

I won’t pretend that the novelty of the knuckleball isn’t at least part of what drew me to Haeger, but it’s more than that. First of all, he was successful in a tough climate in Albuquerque, making the PCL All Star team by going 11-6 with a 3.55 ERA in a notoriously tough park to pitch in. Then, once he reached the bigs, he was everything we’d hoped for – 3.32 ERA in 6 outings (3 starts) with a sparking 1.053 WHIP. For a team that heard all year that their starters weren’t throwing enough innings, why wouldn’t you want a knuckleballer with the ability to get things out?

I’m such a big backer of Haeger that I included him in my 2010 plan, saying:

10) Give Charlie Haeger a chance. I’m not saying to just hand the guy a starting gig, but he does seem to be completely invisible around the Dodgers, and it’s foolish to write him off. We’ve been running a “free Charlie Haeger!” campaign around here all summer, and he’s done nothing to change that.

The guy was one of the top pitchers in AAA last year, despite being in the high-altitude deathpad of Albuquerque. Then when he came up to the bigs, he was more than adequate – 19 IP in 6 games (2 starts), allowing a WHIP of just 1.053 and an ERA of 3.32.

With all of the complaints we heard all year about how the Dodger starters weren’t going  deep into games, why wouldn’t we want to see a knuckleballer who could soak up innings? Even if he’s “just” league-average, there’s still a lot of value in that. So give him a chance to crack the bullpen as a long man and spot starter, available to step in if/when someone gets hurt.

What’s the downside here? He’s cheap, can throw a lot of innings, and seems to be effective. Go with it.

85toppsericmiltonEric Milton (B)
(2-1, 3.80, 1.521 WHIP)

Are we sure Eric Milton was a Dodger in 2009? I mean, I see his card to the left. I see his stats above. I just have almost zero recollection of him actually pitching.

Still, he gets a B just because expectations for him were almost Schmidt-esque. After missing most of 2007 and ’08 with Tommy John surgery, Milton signed a minor league deal with a spring training invite. How’d he do in spring training? Well, this is what I wrote about him on April 1 in my post predicting who’d make the Opening Day roster:

#24. Lefty pitcher who should enjoy 2 weeks of big league service time until Will Ohman comes up on April 14… Well, it’s sure as hell not going to be Eric Milton, not after he added 8 runs in 2 1/3 innings to the 10.07 ERA he brought into today’s game.

So down to Albuquerque it was, where he was actually pretty decent - 2.83 ERA and 27/6 K/BB ratio at that point. Once he got called up in May, well, look. What can you say about the five starts Milton had? The end results were decent enough (2.89 ERA through the first four, though 3.80 overall after a disastrous fifth outing), the way he got there a little less so (11.4 hits/9 and a 1.521 WHIP – woof), and then he hurt his back, requiring surgery that put him out for the year.

I’m honestly struggling to say anything else about Eric Milton’s contributions this year. Good lord, just wait until I get to Travis Schlichting.

85toppsjasonschmidtJason Schmidt (RIP)
(2-2, 5.60, 1.585 WHIP)

na na na na…

na na NA na…

hey hey hey!

good bye…

Our long national nightmare is over! We no longer have to see “RHP – Jason Schmidt (shoulder)” taking up space on the 60-day DL, or more importantly on the payroll. To be fair, it’s important to remember that Schmidt was a class act through all of this. There’s a lot of guys who would have hung it up long ago, but Schmidt did his best to rehab and work his way back, managing to make four mostly terrible starts this year – though one was a completely misleading one-hitter over six innings against the Braves. (Misleading because he walked five in those six innings).

So the blame doesn’t go to Schmidt; it goes to Ned Colletti, who admitted that he knew Schmidt was injured when he signed him. Still, it was completely clear that the man just had nothing left. Sorry to see a great competitor go out like that… but I’d be even sorrier to see him still pitching.

Next! Jonathan Broxton’s still awesome! George Sherrill’s funky hat!! Troncoso and Belisario, oh my! Hong-Chih Kuo’s explosive elbow! And Jeff Weaver lives!! It’s relievers, part 1!

MSTI’s 2009 in Review: Right Field

November 4, 2009 at 1:29 pm | Posted in 2009 in review, Andre Ethier, Jamie Hoffmann, Mitch Jones | 13 Comments

85toppsandreethierAndre Ethier (A for Amazing!)
(.272/.361/.508 31hr 106rbi)

You know, we always try to keep our views here pinned in the realm of reality. Just because Mark Loretta won our hearts with the clutch single in NLDS Game 2, we couldn’t overlook the previous 6 months of awfulness. It works both ways, too; just because Chad Billingsley fell off a cliff late in the year and lost everyone’s trust in him, we couldn’t forget how great he’d been in the first half and in previous years.

But when it comes to Andre Ethier, it’s pretty difficult to think just with your brain and not with your heart. It’s not that his numbers weren’t great, of course - he was was the first Dodger to hit 30 homers since Adrian Beltre in 2004, and finishing as the 5th highest RF in terms of VORP in baseball is nice too. That in itself is deserving of an A, which I’m happy to award him. That’s without even mentioning the enduring knowledge that all it took to acquire Ethier was the flaming remnants of Milton Bradley’s career. (Okay, and Antonio Perez too. You tell him thanks when you see him pumping your gas sometime.)

It’s just that, while we were all captivated by the flashy HR total and the amazing string of walkoff hits, there’s a few reasons why Ethier’s breakout 2009 might not be exactly what it seems. This is not to pick nits in what was a fantastic season, but these are points worth mentioning.

For example, believe it or not, his BA, OBP, and SLG all dropped ever so slightly, meaning that his OPS was actually 16 points lower than in 2008, with his percentage of line drives dropping from 26.6% to 20.5%, which is worrisome. Really, the main difference between his 2008 and 2009 was his percentage of fly balls, because even though he only slightly raised his homers per flyball rate in 2009 (14.1% to 15.4%), the fact that his percentage of fly balls hit overall jumped from 32.0% to 41.5% made for a lot more balls leaving the yard. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, since it clearly resulted in more homers, but when all of his other rates have dropped since 2008, it does put the idea of a “breakout” season into perspective.

There’s some other issues, as well – for example, he’s rapidly turning into a player who really ought to be platooned to keep him away from lefties. This year, Ethier destroyed right-handed pitching to the tune of a .960 OPS and 25 of his homers. Against lefties, he had just a .194 BA and a .629 OPS and only 6 homers. It’s actually been a pretty clear downward trend for him as far as a lefty/righty split goes:

2006: .842 vs RH, .846 vs LH
2007: .830 vs RH, .816 vs LH
2008: .953 vs RH, .692 vs LH
2009: .960 vs RH, .629 vs LH

As he continues to improve against righties, he’s quickly becoming unplayable against lefties, and the four years of stats clearly show there’s not any improvement happening here.

In addition, his defense has been declining as well, as FanGraphs dedicated an entire article to last week:

Ethier’s first two seasons suggested some defensive talent. Over his first 271 games (212 starts), Ethier compiled a +6.5 UZR in the outfield. Of course, this is not the only example of a UZR sample of this size showing a significant deviation from the following two seasons. However, we can ask: what changed?

First of all, let’s look at the biggest component of the statistic: range. Ethier showed fantastic range in 2007 after showing average range in 2006. His range fell off a cliff then in 2008 and 2009, at -6.6 and -6.9 runs, respectively.

Similarly, Ethier’s arm looked fantastic in 2006, at 6.8 runs in merely 92 DG (defensive games adjusted for attempts). He has not shown that skill since, and his arm dipped below -5 runs above average this season. It is possible that his arm was better suited to left field – his ARM in 154 DG is +4.1 in LF vs. -6.9 in 371 DG in RF.

It appears that we have two major outliers skewing his results from 2006 and 2007. Ethier’s +6.8 ARM rating may have been a product of both his time in left field as well as random variation in the statistic. Since his move to playing primarily right field in 2007, his arm has rated as nearly 10 runs below average, the ninth worst overall mark over the past three years.

I realize that this review has sounded overwhelmingly negative towards a player who provided the Dodgers with several of the most enduring 2009 memories, and I really didn’t mean it to come off that way. So he still gets his A, because this is just one of those situations where the heart (“OMG! 31 homers! Crazy walk-off hits! Give him an A! Give him 40 A’s!”) overrides the brain (“Horrible against lefties! Kind of a lousy outfielder! Somewhat declining stats from 2008!”)

Besides, despite the negatives, there’s no doubt that Ethier was an incredibly valuable player in 2009, and he could be even moreso in future years if used properly. For example, whenever Manny’s no longer a Dodger, Ethier should be moved to left field, rather than keep him in right and acquire another left fielder. In addition, he really should be kept away from as many left-handed pitchers as possible. Not to turn everything back to Juan Pierre, but this is yet another reason why you really need a different backup outfielder, because sitting Ethier against a lefty just to have Pierre there instead (with Matt Kemp in RF that night, of course), doesn’t really help you.

Still, the overriding image of Andre Ethier’s 2009 should be a positive one, most encapsulated by what is without a doubt my favorite picture used on any of these 1985 Topps cards. Well, until we get to Jason Schmidt, that is…

85toppsjamiehoffmannJamie Hoffmann (inc.)
(.182/.167/.409 1hr 7rbi)

Considering that Jamie Hoffmann started the year in AA and was somewhere around 8th on the Dodger outfield depth chart, just getting to the bigs should be seen as a pretty nice year for him, with his first big league homer a cherry on top.

Sure, it took a series of events unexpected (Manny’s suspension), unfortunate (Xavier Paul’s staph infection), and unavoidable (another Jason Repko injury) to get the former hockey player up with the big club, but hey, you take what you can get, right?

Besides, when your year includes your father breaking the news that you’ve been called up to a small-town Minnesota newspaper, and that father just so happens to be the lead sheriff in a high-profile case that made national news, and finally you end up getting DFA’d but then re-signed to an odd contract that prevents you from being on the 40-man until next May, well, you can at least say you’ve had an interesting season.

As far as actual baseball goes for Mr. Hoffmann, he didn’t do all that much with the Dodgers, collecting just 4 hits. However, he did hit well at AA (.952 OPS) and AAA (.815 OPS), in addition to his reputation as a superlative defensive outfielder, so we can expect to see him back sometime next year for a week or two when an extra body is needed. 

85toppsmitchjonesMitch Jones (inc.)
(.308/.400/.385 0hr 0rbi)

If you didn’t cheer for Mitch Jones this year, you have a black, black soul and a heart of stone. Don’t remember his heart-tugging story? Let me refresh you:

If the thought alone of having an all or nothing strikeout/homer machine doesn’t grab you, then tell me that his story isn’t worth rooting for him. He’s 31 years old, has been poking around the minors since as far back as 2000, and is still looking for his first major league appearance. While the jaded among you may say “uh, that’s because he sucks”, it goes further than that. This is from an ESPN story last season on career minor leaguers who may have missed their chance due to choosing not to take steroids:

What happened to Jones on May 19, 2006, alone ought to be worth a few mil in punitive damages. He was in Richmond when the Yankees called him up, emergency style. He raced to the airport, flew to LaGuardia, got in a cab, had to talk his way into Yankee Stadium, picked up his uniform, called his dad to tell him (“I’d always dreamed of the day I’d make that call,” Jones says), sat next to Sheffield in the dugout (oh, irony!) and … never got into the game.

Afterward, Joe Torre called him into his office and said, “Man, I hate to do this to you, but we’re sending you back down.” Jones was, naturally, crushed. But the worst part was still to come:

“I had to call my dad back.”

He hasn’t been up since.

Now Jones is in the Dodger organization, and guess who’s the Dodger manager? Torre.

Guess who’s still the Dodger manager? Joe Torre. I’m not usually one to put emotion ahead of winning games – how could I, with a soul as black as a steer’s tukus on a moonless night – but if Jones somehow has to be on yet another team with Torre and Joe doesn’t find a way to get him an at-bat here or there? I’ll have no problem with looking the other way while Mitch does what needs to be done.

Well, Jones finally did get that chance to hit – 15, even – and managed a .785 OPS in that short time, though without a homer.  That shouldn’t obscure the damage he did in the minors, either, as finished third in the PCL in OPS a won the Bauman award for most homers in MiLB – despite missing a month of time while in the bigs and passing through waivers.

Clearly, at 32, his time has just about passed. But if you look at the numbers he’s put up in the minors, how has some team not taken a shot on him as a part-time DH or power bat off the bench? I’d have taken him over Mark Loretta, that’s for sure. At least he got his at-bat.

Next! Randy Wolf’s career year! Clayton Kershaw’s raw talent! Hiroki Kuroda lined up for the swine flu, probably! A tale of two Chad Billingsleys! And how did Eric Stults make the cut?! It’s starting pitchers, part 1!

MSTI’s 2009 in Review: Center Field

November 3, 2009 at 6:43 am | Posted in 2009 in review, Jason Repko, Matt Kemp, Xavier Paul | 4 Comments

My, how times have changed. A year ago at this time, I was reviewing Matt Kemp and Andruw Jones in center field, and struggling to find the right way to describe Jones’ horrific year:

Andruw Jones (F)
(.158/.256/.249 3hr 14rbi)
No, that’s not quite right…

Andruw Jones ()
(.158/.256/.249 3hr 14rbi)
The pig is closer, but not exactly…

Andruw Jones ()
(.158/.256/.249 3hr 14rbi)

Ahh, there we go. Andruw Jones is a criminal. Yes, much better. Andruw Jones stole money from the Dodgers at such a rate that it’s making Jason Schmidt and Darren Dreifort look like sensible investments.

This year? We get to talk about the ascension of Matt Kemp to stardom and into the discussion of “best all-around centerfielder in baseball”.

Yep. This is better.

85toppsmattkemp

Matt Kemp (A+!!)
(.297/.352/.490 26hr 101rbi 34sb)

I should have been looking forward to writing about Kemp’s incredible year more than anyone else, yet instead I worked backwards and wrote Repko and Paul’s pieces below first. Why? Because Kemp made such a huge step forward this year that I really feel like there’s no way I can recap it in such a way to really do him justice.

In one sense, the numbers really speak for themselves, don’t they? #1 in VORP among all MLB CF, by a nearly 20% margin. Improvement from 2008 in nearly every offensive statistic – BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, K/BB, WPA. Perhaps even most impressive, marked improvement from years past on defense, and while I think it was pretty clear with the naked eye that he much improved his routes to the ball, the numbers back it up as well. His fielding metrics improved across the board.

But it’s more than just reading off the numbers. Despite Joe Torre’s insane insistence on batting Kemp 8th for much of the year, Kemp really took that step from “untapped potential” to “a star right now“. Remember his heroics in Milwaukee back in July when he tied the Dodger season record for grand slams in the top of the 10th – and then saved the game with a Mays-esque over-the-shoulder game-ending grab in the bottom of the frame? You almost felt like he was doing things like that on a regular basis. When was the last time you felt the Dodgers had a young player who was without question going to be a superstar? Clayton Kershaw’s probably on that path, but he hasn’t achieved quite enough yet. Perhaps Adrian Beltre in 2004, but that was tempered by his imminent departure via free agency. For me, it’s Mike Piazza circa 1995. That’s the kind of player Kemp can be.

Granted, Kemp tailed off badly at the end of the year (.637 OPS in Sept/Oct) and in the playoffs (7 hits in 8 games, though 2 were homers). On the other hand, he’ll still be just 25 on Opening Day next year. Here’s the truly scary thing; Kemp was, as we showed earlier, the best CF in baseball this year. If he put up performances like this every year, that’s an incredibly valuable player. But at his age, and with his improvements, you likely haven’t seen his best yet.

Now please, please, sign him to a long-term deal, Ned!

85toppsjasonrepkoJason Repko (so long!)
(.000/.143/.000 0hr 1rbi)

Here’s a fun fact for you: Jason Repko is the longest-tenured Dodger, having made his LA debut way back on April 6, 2005.  If that doesn’t really sound like that long ago, let me remind you that the starting pitchers in that day’s game against the Giants were Odalis Perez and Kirk Reuter, and Repko batted 2nd in Jim Tracy’s Dodger lineup that also featured Cesar Izturis, J.D. Drew, Jose Valentin, and Jason Phillips, on a team that would go on to lose 91 games. So yeah, he’s been around for a while, though thanks to several injuries and general mediocrity he’s managed just 478 MLB plate appearances in his career- when he wasn’t busy ruining Rafael Furcal’s 2007.

Here’s another fact for you: Repko’s status as “longest-tenured Dodger” almost certainly ended with a strikeout on the last day of the regular season, as he’s arbitration-eligible and has done almost nothing to justify a raise on his 2009 salary of $500k. His various stints with the big club have produced just a 74 OPS+, and in yet another year in AAA (which he first reached in 2004) he had a ghastly 80/24 K/BB rate while putting up an .800 OPS. At 29 in December, he’s being passed on the organization ladder by younger outfielders like Xavier Paul and Jamie Hoffmann, with more on the way.

Still, Repko’s not without his uses. His speed, strong throwing arm, and ability to play all 3 outfield spots make him a decent 4th outfielder, but as tenuous as that value is, it’s all but invisible on a team like the Dodgers that’s stacked with outfielders both talented and highly-paid. Believe it or not, Repko’s been in the Dodger organization since 1999 (making his debut as the SS on the Great Falls Dodgers that went 29-47 and featured just one other player who’d make it to the bigs, Shane Victorino), so it’s a little melancholy to predict his imminent unemployment.

But go he must; for there’s no room at this inn for a nearly-30 backup outfielder who’s making more than the minimum and can’t really hit. You don’t have to go home, but you can’t stay here.

85toppsxavierpaulXavier Paul (MRSA)
(.214/.313/.500 1hr 1rbi)

Speaking of “reasons that Jason Repko’s Dodger career is likely coming to an end”, we have Xavier Paul, who’s 4 years younger and put up an OPS 78 points higher as Isotope teammates this season.

That OPS would be .878, good for 15th in the PCL if he’d had enough at-bats to qualify. That’s pretty good on its face; what makes that even better is that’s the fifth consecutive year in which his OPS has improved, dating back to his .721 mark as a 20-year-old in High A ball in 2005. With many young players, you see some struggles as they progress against tougher competition, but Paul has only improved with each level he advances.

That progression plus his hot start to 2009 and a throwing arm described as “elite” made him the natural choice to be recalled when Manny was suspended in May, and though he spent most of his 11 games in the bigs as a pinch-hitter (starting once in CF and once in RF), he did manage to put out his first big league dinger.

Of course, Paul’s season was ruined when he scraped his knee in Florida and contracted a particularly nasty staph infection, which sidelined him into September, where he made a few token appearances back in AAA before their season ended.

Assuming that he’s fully healthy, Paul has little left to prove in AAA, but is of course blocked by the logjam in the Dodger outfield. Since his strong arm makes him a much better choice for a backup outfielder than Juan Pierre, let’s count Xavier Paul as “reason #149184 it’s time to trade Pierre”. Otherwise, Paul gets another year in New Mexico, waiting for an injury at the big league level or a trade of his own.

Next! Andre Ethier’s heroics! Who the hell is Jamie Hoffmann?! Mitch Jones’ dream come true! It’s right field!

MSTI’s 2009 in Review: Left Field

November 2, 2009 at 8:53 am | Posted in 2009 in review, Juan Pierre sucks, Manny Ramirez | 8 Comments

Before we get into left field, I think I need to reiterate our grading scheme here, both because I’ve seen some misunderstandings in the comments and because it’s going to be more important for our left fielders than anyone. The letter grades are A) subjective, meaning they’re based on no statistical work and are only my own feeling, and B) based on reasonable expectations for a player before the year. So just because I gave Russell Martin an F doesn’t mean that I think he should be unemployed, just that he had a terrible year based on what we expected from him. If A.J. Ellis had to play every day and put up the exact same line, he’d probably get a A for it. Got it? Good. Let’s move on to what are sure to be our hardest grading decisions…

85toppsmannyramirezManny Ramirez (D)
(.290/.418/.531 19hr 63rbi)

How do you even grade a year like this? Well, I’ll tell you how I’m not going to grade it – I never expected him to match his 2008 Dodger numbers, which were completely unsustainable and would only have constituted the greatest season in baseball history if held up over a full season, and I’m not going to worry about some of the standard themes we keep hearing of “betrayal”. There’s no question that Manny’s an idiot, but if you were somehow surprised that one of the best home run hitters of the 1990s and 2000s was using a little something extra, then it’s time to pull your head out of the sand. Besides, where’s the outrage over Guillermo Mota? Exactly.

No, we’re going to judge Manny based on his on-the-field performance for the Dodgers in 2009, not based on what gets Kurt Streeter’s panties in a twist.  It’s in that sense that Manny gets a huge demerit for being unavailable for 50 games, and then a bit more for the fact that while he was still good, he wasn’t exactly “vintage Manny”. He’s earned every part of that D. That said, despite his stupidity and the embarrassment he caused the team in 2009, I just can’t give an F to a guy who (if he’d had enough plate appearances to qualify) would have finished 9th in MLB in OPS – ahead of Mark Teixeira, Ryan Braun, Miguel Cabrera, and Alex Rodriguez. So for everything that he did do wrong this season, let’s not go overboard with the “Manny’s unemployable without steroids”, okay?

Let’s look a little deeper into Manny’s season to see if that assertion holds up, splitting it into five sections.

1) Opening Day (4/6) -> Suspension (5/6): .348/.492/.641 1.133

Vintage Manny. Better than his career average, actually, so pretty damned good. I can already hear the squawking that “he was still on the juice!”, but don’t forget: he failed his test in Spring Training – and that for a masking agent, not the actual thing -  so while he may have still been on the ride at this point, he was hardly shooting up before games.

2) Suspension (5/7 -> 7/2)

Dick. No question about it. Dick. Not only for “letting us down”, if you feel personally offended, but by robbing the team of its best bat for six weeks – and by adding insult to injury by subjecting us to Juan Pierre during that time. Dick.

3) Return (7/3) -> HBP from Homer Bailey (7/21): .333/.429/.688 1.116

His slightly lower OBP was offset by a bump in SLG, equaling nearly the same OPS as he had before the suspension. I don’t remember anyone complaining that he was no good clean during these two weeks, right?

4) Playing with injured hand (7/22 -> 8/28): .264/.366/.400 .766

Despite constant refusals to admit that taking Bailey’s mid-90s heater off his hand was an issue, Manny was clearly not the same player here. Still, no player ever admits that they’re injured, and if this was related to the juice, he’d have been playing like this as soon as he returned, right? Besides, once he’d had a few weeks since the HBP, presumably healing his hand…

5) End of season stretch (8/29 -> 10/3): .241/.400/.517 .917

…his OBP and SLG perked right up. Granted, the batting average isn’t great. Fortunately, we all know better than to rely on batting average as any sort of indicator, and a .917 OPS is still top 20 if he’d put that up over the entire season.

So yeah, Manny’s a jerk. An asshole, even, if you must, and wildly overpaid both this year and next as compared to his production. No doubt. I might not even mind it all that much if he declines his 2010 option (like that’s ever going to happen), but let’s not act as though he’s David Eckstein now, okay? I think what you’re going to see next year is a Manny who’s not only in a contract push, but one who’s had his pride and reputation severely wounded, with all the motivation in the world to overcome that.

Or, he’ll do something else stupid (and no, Plaschke, the “going into the shower” non-story doesn’t count), not hit, and we’ll boo the hell out of him. Whichever.

85toppsjuanpierreJuan Pierre (A)
(.308/.365/.392 0hr 31rbi 30sb)

Nope, that’s not a typo. Perpetual MSTI whipping boy Juan Pierre gets an A. But don’t read too much into it, because it’s not due to the fact that he “carried the team” while Manny was out, which we heard far too many times from clueless announcers on other teams and national broadcasts. See, what they always convieniently forget to mention is that while Pierre was actually very good for the first few weeks of starting (even earning his own post here dedicated to his nice play and improved plate discipline), he was worse than ever after that. Of course, most of the media was so involved in the “feel good story” to notice, but the stats make it pretty clear:

This is a pretty common misconception, because if you remember what actually happened:

Games 1-20: .425/.495/.598  1.093 OPS
Games 21-50: .244/.299/.283  .583 OPS

So if by “such a great job” you mean “had a killer hot streak for less than half of Manny’s absence and was worse than ever for the majority of it,” then yes – great job.

It’s worth nothing that while the Dodgers were 13-7 while he was going good, they were just 16-14 when he was killing the offense. So no, Pierre did not “carry the team” or “save the offense” by stepping in for Manny; he combined a very good stretch with an even longer very bad stretch.

Still, those few weeks were great, and that’s about a few more good weeks than I ever expected from him. So there’s your A. Now let’s get back towards trying to trade him this offseason.

Next! Matt Kemp’s breakout year! Jason Repko’s last hurrah! Xavier Paul’s creepy infection! It’s center field!

MSTI’s 2009 In Review: Shortstop

November 1, 2009 at 4:11 pm | Posted in 2009 in review, Chin-Lung Hu, Juan Castro, Rafael Furcal | 2 Comments

Welcome to day 5 of MSTI’s 2009 Year In Review.  Have a good Halloween?  Good!  So as you sit there with your coffee, trying to sober up after your heavy partying last night, pull up a chair and join us, as we tackle SS!  Let us begin:

85toppsrafaelfurcalRafael Furcal = C-
(.269/.335/.375 9hr 47rbi)

You know, Rafael Furcal has now completed his fourth year as a Dodger (already?!) and, even despite that, it still feels a bit difficult at times to truly evaluate his tenure when you look at his numbers.  In 2006, he started off sub-par due to wrist and hand issues, only to finish the year as arguably the team’s MVP with a scorching second half.  Then in 2007, he comes back with arguably the worst season of his career     Then in 2008, he gets off to the best start of his career only to get sidelined for four months with more injuries.

Of course, he comes back in 2009 with one of his worst seasons (by the way, note the weird odd numbered year = bad year, even numbered year = good year?).  And, let’s face it, for as much as we like Furcal here at MSTI (his interviews are always such a hoot!), 2009 was a forgettable year for Furcal.  Comparing this season to his general career numbers (it wouldn’t be fair to compare them to his one insane month of 2008), we saw a decrease in pretty much all of the important numbers.  His .335 OBP this year is lower compared to his career .350 OBP, while his .375 SLG% was lower than his career .408 SLG%.  In terms of OPS+, it was a below average 88, while his actual OPS dropped from his career .758 to .711; his EqA of .259 was below his career .269.

Looking further than that, though, let’s compare him with his peers.  Amongst the qualified NL SS’s, he ranks 6th out of 9 in BA and OBP, while ranking 8th out of 10 in SLG%, and ranking 7th in MLVr, with a number of -.012.  Nonetheless, while Furcal performed poorly for most of the year, he did have a couple of great months, putting up a great July (.343/.395/.500) and really coming on strong at the end with a fantastic September (.330/.400/.491) and looking much more like the Furcal of old.  But one thing that didn’t look like the Furcal of old is that he didn’t really steal many bases this year.  This year, in his 150 games, we saw him attempt to steal only 18 bases, stealing 12 of them, though the decrease was more than likely an effect of being cautious after last year’s back injuries.

Defensively, Furcal, for the most part, was, well, Furcal and that’s a good thing.  His .967 fielding percentage is pretty much par for the course and, while low, it’s generally come from throwing errors throughout his career, as his arm can make him the Rick Vaughn of shortstops at times.  His Zone Rating was 5.786 which ranked him 6th amongst NL SS’s.  The interesting thing to note with Furcal is that over the past two years, we’ve seen a decrease in his range factor.  Through 2007, the worst number he ever had in this category was a 4.77, though since that period, he’s put up numbers of 4.20 and 4.25.  Again, 2008 must be noted for being a very short season for Furcal, and, as always the case, defensive stats can be a bit murky, but it is interesting to note the trend continuing into 2009, however much value you want to put into that…

Still, his defense wasn’t something that I had complaints with this year.  That was fine.  The problem was at the plate and, unfortunately, Furcal put up a year that is to rank amongst his worst, hence the low grade, but the encouraging thing going into 2010 is that he did end the season on very much a high note and finally seemed to start regaining form and hopefully this is something we can see A LOT more of next year.  Even if he can’t be the big stolen base threat he used to be, when he’s on as a hitter, he is a very valuable weapon to have, so we shall see what the future holds for him.  I mean, it’s an even numbered year next year: he’s gotta do well!

85toppsjuancastroJuan Castro = C-
(.277/.311/.339 1hr 9rbi)

When Colletti signed him earlier this year, it seemed more of just Ned needing more porn to satisfy his fetish of signing light hitting shortstops, but you know what?  Even though I wasn’t thrilled with the signing, Castro didn’t embarrass himself this year, either.  Well, at least if “this year” is April – July, anyways.  During the first half of the season, Castro put up numbers of .357/.397/.437 with an .834 OPS!  Really, Juan Castro putting up those numbers?!  I mean, geez, what kind of stuff was he pulling out of Manny’s locker to do that?!  A welcome surprise, indeed.

Alas, it all crashed and burned in the second half, where Castro went .146/.146/.171 and a .317 OPS to go with it, which is more of the real Castro than what we saw in the first half.  Still, did I mention that, despite that second half, he still managed to finish with one of his very best OPS+ in his long and storied 15 year career?

Did I also mention that his career OPS+ is 52?!

Nonetheless, one great half with one awful one?  Well, that’s about one more great (or even good) half I thought we’d get from him, and he did play decent defense more times than not, so a C- for you, Fidel.

 

85toppschinglunghuChin-Lung Hu = Inc.
(.400/.333/.600 0hr 2rbi)

Given that Chin-Lung Hu had six, yes, count them, SIX plate appearances, do you know how tempted I was just to type in “Hu?” and leave it at that?

Still, even in these six at-bats, Hu managed to get a couple of hits, but he played hardly enough to warrant a great.  Though this year in Triple-A Albuquerque, Hu managed to have a slight improvement upon his 2008 year, hitting .294/.332/.393, with 6 HR’s and 53 RBI’s.  Not much else to say about the Hu-ster in Dodger Blue in 2009… except, well…

(crickets chirp)

Hey, did you know that, according to Wikipedia, always the crown jewel of credibility, that he has the shortest surname in MLB history?! (Note from MSTI: Or as Diamond Leung Tweeted to me, Hu is now tied with Tigers reliever Fu-Te Ni for that honor).

O.K., I think that means we’ve done enough on shortstop.  So tune in next time!

Next! Manny Ramirez’ fertility-fueled fun! Juan Pierre’s battle for relevance! It’s left field!

- Vin vinscully-face.jpg

MSTI’s 2009 in Review: Third Base

October 30, 2009 at 9:53 am | Posted in 2009 in review, Blake DeWitt, Casey Blake, Mark Loretta | 6 Comments

85toppscaseyblakeCasey Blake (B+)
(.280/.363/.468 18hr 79rbi)

I just want to make this abundantly clear, because I’ve been getting grief over this for months: I don’t hate Casey Blake. I like him just fine, as he’s a solid 3B who had a pretty good year, and that’s not even considering the outstanding beard. I just think that far too much was given up in the trade that brought him to LA, and I think that giving him a guaranteed third year for 2011 last offseason was unneccessary. That’s all. Look, this is even what I said in the very first post regarding his arrival:

Look, I don’t really mind getting Casey Blake. He’s a useful guy. I just think that what Colletti gave up to acquire him is mind-blowingly out of proportion.

And that’s exactly the case today, though we of course know a little bit more about why Colletti had to give up Carlos Santana just to save a measly $2m. Back to 2009, Blake had, surprisingly, one of the best years of his career. What was more impressive to me was the timing, because while Blake had hot streaks and cold streaks, he got hot exactly when the club needed it the most – when Manny was suspended. As I said in our first half review:

Say this for Casey Blake, the man knows that timing is everything. On May 6, the day before Manny was suspended, Blake was hitting just .225/.324/.427. In the 46 games Blake played during Manny’s absence, Blake really stepped up, putting up a .319/.371/.530 line, with 6 homers. As the 11th most valuable 3B in MLB by VORP, the Most Interesting Man in the World has been more than serviceable at the hot corner.

Now sure, he suffered a severe power outage after that (just 3 homers in 2 months), and it’s true that he completely disappeared in the playoffs (just 5 singles in 32 plate appearances), which is what’s keeping me from giving him an A. The fact of the matter is, Blake ended up being the 9th most valuable MLB 3B by VORP, and if I’d have told you that he’d be a top 10 3B before the year, you’d have taken that in a heartbeat, right? Even better, his fielding, which was suspect, actually improved. I think you could see this with your naked eye, but even the relevant fielding stats – which had him as a slightly below-average 3B in previous years – had him pegged as being about 7-8 runs above average. So if you take all that into account and forget how he arrived in LA, all you can say is, “well done, Casey. Well done.”

Now let’s work towards making you the four-corners power bat off the bench in 2011 that you really ought to be. 

85toppsmarklorettaMark Loretta (F-)
(.232/.309/.276 0hr 25rbi)

Hey, look at Mark Loretta’s card! He’s doing exactly what he does best, and that’s congratulating others on a job well done. You’ll notice there’s not a whole lot of pictures out there of Dodger teammates congratulating Loretta on his own achievements, because, well, there really weren’t any (game-winning single in NLDS Game 2 aside, of course).

Let’s look back and see what exactly Loretta was signed to do, which, admittedly, I loved at the time:

I know I’ve been pretty negative about everything lately, but I love this signing, especially for just $1.4 million over one year. In fact, when the rumor first popped up a week ago, I was completely in favor of it – why wouldn’t I want a guy who could play all four infield positions and absolutely destroys lefties, especially when it seems as though at least half of the infield will be lefty batters? DodgerThoughts points out that Loretta’s had an OBP of .345 or better since 1997, and that’s fantastic. He’s basically Nomar, but better: he might have never had Nomar’s pop, but he can play more positions, and he won’t rack up an extra $10 million in doctor bills.

So how’d that work out? Well, not only did he have the worst season of his career, (345 major leaguers had at least 200 plate appearances this year, and by VORP, Loretta was 330th) he got worse as the year went on. A very nice April (1.050 OPS) was followed by five months in which he never managed a monthly OPS over .703 – and included an absolutely horrific July in which he had 3 singles in 30 plate appearances.

I’m not going to kill Ned Colletti for this one, because I thought it was a great idea at the time, and it just didn’t work out. For just $1.4m, anyway, it was a worthy gamble – as long as they cut the cord and don’t try to bring him back, Mark Sweeney-style.

85toppsblakedewitt

Blake DeWitt (inc.)
(.204/.245/.388 2hr 4rbi)

I probably should have used a picture of an airplane or a postcard from New Mexico, because DeWitt spent pretty much his entire season flying back-and-forth between Los Angeles and Albuquerque. How many times did he get recalled? Five? Six? I don’t even remember, and the exact number isn’t even important, because DeWitt was the definiton of “26th man” this year. Talk about a slight difference from his 2008 of “out of nowhere Opening Day 3B and playoff 2B” to his scenic tour of the southwestern United States in 2009, right?

You can’t put any stock whatsoever into his MLB stats, because 53 plate appearances spread out amongst 6 stints on the team are meaningless. That said, his minor league line from this year is indeed troubling. In 2008 at AAA, he had a line of .306/.366/.486 – an .852 OPS (granted, in just 124 AB). In 2009, every part of that line fell, to a .776 OPS.

Still, DeWitt will be just 23 for the majority of 2010, and it’s hard to really kill him on his AAA numbers considering how much he was jerked back and forth – and if there is a bit of hope, it’s his 44/48 K/BB line in the minors. I suppose at this point he’s at least got a prayer of being 2010′s Opening Day 2B, if the Dodgers decide to go the cheap route, but it seems incredibly unlikely. If that’s the case, it’s nice to know that you’ve got a guy like DeWitt in the minors, who should hopefully still be improving and might be a starter on other teams, ready to step in.

Next! Rafael Furcal’s back recovery! Juan Castro’s zombie-like ability to stay employed! Chin-Lung Hu’s token appearance! It’s shortstop!

MSTI’s 2009 in Review: Second Base

October 29, 2009 at 9:56 am | Posted in 2009 in review, Orlando Hudson, Ronnie Belliard, Tony Abreu | 12 Comments

85toppsorlandohudsonOrlando Hudson (B-)
(.283/.357/.417 9hr 62rbi)

It’s one thing to get off to a hot start, and it’s quite another to introduce yourself to your new team by hitting for the cycle in the home opener, isn’t it? Despite the fact that I was so fervently against giving Arizona a first round pick to sign him in the offseason, even I had to give him props when he hit .332/.407/.469 through the first two months of the season.

But there was a big problem with that outstanding start to his Dodger career, and it’s that his amazing first impression seemed to color everyone’s impression of him for the rest of the season. I started getting worried about him as far back as July, when I was doing our mid-season reviews and giving him credit for his nice first half. In the same review, I pointed out:

So why just the B grade? Because while Hudson may have made an enormous first impression (come on, a cycle in your first home game for your new team? Who does that?) I think it may have obscured just how horrible he’s been over the second half of the first half. (Shut up, that’s a thing.)

Apr. 6 – May 13: 35 games, .348/.429/.539
May 14 – Jul. 10: 49 games, .237/.300/.320

For some reason baseball-reference hasn’t updated to include yesterday’s games yet, so I am missing his 2-homer outburst in that latter section, but still: the difference is glaring. You’d like to think that was the start of something, because at some point he’s going to need to turn this around, or all of the good feelings of April are going to dissipate.

Hudson picked it up some from his horrible June stretch, but an OPS that had been over .900 in May still fell to as low as .768 in September. With Ronnie Belliard’s contributions upon arriving, it was absolutely the right decision to bench Hudson for him.  So what we ended up with was a year that was average overall (104 OPS+, exactly in line with his previous years), but was put up by two completely different players. But hey, at least he cost a first round pick! Let’s hope that can be recouped by offering him arbitration, especially since in regards to any possibility of a return next year, I’d say this quote from Baseball Prospectus about sums it up:

Second baseman Orlando Hudson, stung by being benched in favor of Ronnie Belliard in the playoffs, has no desire to re-sign with the Dodgers as a free agent.

Fine by me, because he was good, but not great. Thanks for the season, Orlando, especially for being a complete professional about being benched (Hudson has always had a fantastic reputation in that sense), and best of luck in your non-Dodger future. But mostly, best of luck to the Dodgers in terms of recouping the draft picks and getting more bang out of second base next year.

85toppsronniebelliardRonnie Belliard (A)
(.351/.398/.636 5hr 17rbi)

It’s tempting to compare Belliard to the last late-season veteran import from Washington, Marlon Anderson, but what Anderson did was so far out of whack that it’s hard to compare anything to that. Still, Belliard was fantastic upon his arrival in LA – especially compared to the less-than-enthusiastic welcome I gave him: 

Well… I guess? I suppose this is related to Ken Gurnick’s report that the Dodgers were looking for a run-producing bat off the bench, but I’m not exactly sure that this qualifies. 

Still, I am proud that I was able to point how hot he’d been in Washington out:

Though Belliard’s had a few roughly league-average seasons, he’s hitting a brutal .247/.297/.376 this season, almost exclusively as a second baseman and pinch-hitter. To be fair, since his OPS cratered at .459 (!!) on July 1, Belliard’s hit a nice .323/.380/.475 in 35 games (20 starts).

Which is basically the line that he was able to produce in LA, just with even more added power. Joe Torre got a lot of heat for starting Belliard over Hudson in the playoffs, but when one guy is so hot and the other is so cold – and there’s not a huge difference between them anyway – you can’t be faulted for that.

For next year, I’m not really dying to have Belliard back – his performance in LA is hardly sustainable – but it wouldn’t surprise me all that much if he won people over with his hot September.

85toppstonyabreuTony Abreu (so long!)
(.250/.455/.250 0hr 1rbi)

Ugh. This one is going to kill me. Well, gee, let’s see. You’ve got a giant hole at second base opening up after the season. You’ve got a talented young player who’s finally overcome injuries and is dominating at AAA, and even has already had a taste of the majors, to boot.

And… you trade that young player to a division rival just so you can get 6 decent starts that you probably didn’t really need, especially when Jon Garland didn’t even appear in the playoffs.

Look, Abreu may not be a superstar, though there’s something to be said about a middle infielder who has a .916 OPS in AAA in 2007, misses all of 2008, and then returns to be even better with a .999 AAA OPS. (Yes, I know Vegas and Albuquerque inflate offensive stats somewhat – still, those are good numbers.) For 6 relatively meaningless starts of Garland, you’ve just handed this player to the Diamondbacks.  I hated the trade from Day 1, saying:

Look, if it’s Abreu, I’m going to be really unhappy. He’s a 24-year-old with a .991 OPS in AAA this year, and looks to finally have put his career back on track after two years of injuries. With Orlando Hudson headed back into free agency this offseason, I was strongly in favor of letting him walk and giving Abreu a crack at the second base job. Now – again, if it’s him – the Dodgers have just handed a division rival an excellent prospect for 5 mediocre starts of Jon Garland?  

Survey says… We’ll of course have more to say on this once we know who the player is going back to Arizona. Right now, the feeling is more “worried” with a good chance of “horrified“. 

Yep. “Horrified” is about right. What an awful move. Then again, with all we’ve learned about the issues in the owners’ box, this might be another instance of Colletti’s hands being tied by cheap management. The D-Backs took on all of Garland’s remaining salary for the chance to get back a better prospect, just like how the Indians did for Casey Blake to get Carlos Santana. Please, why won’t they sell?

Next: Casey Blake’s beard! Mark Loretta’s corpse! Blake DeWitt’s frequent flyer miles! It’s third base!

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