I Almost Feel Bad For Matt Holliday. Almost.
October 12, 2009 at 9:44 am | Posted in 2009 NLDS vs. Cardinals, 2009 rules so far | 4 CommentsYou might remember Dodger superfan “Troy from West Virginia” for his amazing worship of Joe Beimel – among several other videos that have appeared on various Dodger blogs – and for me semi-stalking him in Philadelphia last season.
This one, however, might take the cake, because while it’s so obvious I wish I’d thought of it myself – setting an opus about Matt Holliday to Green Day’s “Holiday” – it’s still fantastic. As we await an NLCS opponent, please enjoy:
Sweep!
October 10, 2009 at 6:10 pm | Posted in 2009 NLDS vs. Cardinals | 7 Comments

On to the NLCS for the second year in a row!
Quick thoughts amidst the celebration:
* Way to show up, Cardinals fans! That was like playing ball in a tomb.
* No more complaining about Manny!
* Welcome to Dodgertown, Vicente Padilla!
* Andre Ethier is a golden god!
* I always had faith that the Dodgers would win, but sweep? Really? Even I never considered that to be a possiblity – ever.
Much, much more tomorrow, including who we should be rooting for in the other NLDS series, assuming that it ever starts up again!
NLDS Game 3: Let’s Finish This Off Tonight, Shall We?
October 10, 2009 at 11:00 am | Posted in 2009 NLDS vs. Cardinals, Chad Billingsley, Joel Pineiro, Jon Garland, Tony Abreu, Vicente Padilla | 6 CommentsI still haven’t gotten over how Game 2 ended, and it’s been nearly two days. Even moreso, I still can’t comprehend the fact that this series – which, even though we laughed at the pundits predicting a Cardinal sweep, we knew would be a difficult battle – could be wrapped up today.
I’m incredibly interested to see how Cardinal fans recieve Matt Holliday tonight. My prediction? He gets the largest ovation in the house. That’s partly because St. Louis baseball fans have such a great reputation of being welcoming, but also partly because I’m sure they don’t want to lose him for the rest of the series – and kill any chance they may have had of re-signing him this offseason. It should be noted, though, that while we’ll all remember Holliday’s gaffe for years, it’s hard to put the blame entirely on him. As Cardinals blog Viva el Birdos notes:
That said, his error Thursday meant that, rather than having a 100% chance of winning the game, we “only” had an 86.7% chance of winning the game. Many have pointed out the obvious – that if Holliday catches the ball, we win the game. Well, if Ryan Franklin gets either of the next 2 hitters out – Casey Blake and Ron Belliard, btw (not exactly A-Rod and Teixeira!) – we win the game also. And if he gets only 1 out of the next 4 hitters out – Blake, Belliard, Russell Martin and the always potent Mark Loretta – we go to extra innings and still have a chance. Ryan Franklin’s transgressions were much greater than Holliday’s.
That’s not how it’s going to look in the history books, but it’s 100% true. Speaking of closers, anyone still complaining about Jonathan Broxton, by the way? I thought not. Even the LA Times is doing favorable stories about him now, which they should have been doing all along.
*****
Tonight, we’re looking at Vicente Padilla against Joel Pineiro, and I have to admit I have absolutely no idea what to expect from either one. If “Adam Wainwright vs. Clayton Kershaw” was a hot matchup between two young stud pitchers, “two guys who got unceremoniously dumped by AL teams in recent years” isn’t quite the same thing.
Pineiro was another one of Cardinal pitching guru Dave Duncan’s famed reclamation projects, and won 15 games with a 119 ERA+ this year. But there’s a lot more to it than that, because A) his worth two months of the year were August and September, as he had a 4.64 ERA in those two months, alternating good starts (3 times allowing just 1 run) with bad (allowing 7 ER twice and 4 ER three times). And B), Pineiro’s been rocked by the important cogs in the Dodger lineup. If there’s ever a time for Manny to bust out of his slump, facing a guy who he’s hit 4 homers and put up a crazy .424/.500/.788 line in 38 plate appearances would be a hell of a start. Casey Blake’s been great as well (1.226 OPS in 22 PA), well everyone else has had relatively small sample sizes, except for Jim Thome, who’s unlikely to face Pineiro anyway.
On the other side, Vicente Padilla is making his playoff debut. He was great for the Dodgers down the stretch, and absolutely dominating (10 K in 5 IP) against Colorado on the last day of the season, pitching himself into this start. What’s really interesting, though, is Padilla’s history against the Cardinals. He’s faced just eight of them, and we can eliminate four of those based on being backups or pitchers (Joe Thurston, John Smoltz, Jason LaRue, and Troy Glaus). Against the remaining four?
Mark DeRosa – .523 OPS in 24 PA
Albert Pujols – 1.000 OPS in 9 PA
Matt Holliday – .542 OPS in 8 PA
Julio Lugo – .583 in 10 PA
Other than DeRosa, those are all pretty small samples, but three of the four have performed poorly and Joe Torre seems determined – rightly, I’d say – to not let Pujols even have a chance to hit. So Padilla will be facing 7 guys who’ve either never seen him at all or very few times, 1 guy who he owns (DeRosa), and the pitcher. How many times have we seen the Dodgers get dominated by guys they’ve never seen before just because of unfamiliarity? No one’s ever questioned Padilla’s stuff, so that combination could lead to great things tonight.
*****
While I of course want to see the Dodgers take the sweep tonight for obvious reasons, I will put out there that there is one nice silver lining if they lose, and that’s that Chad Billingsley would get to pitch in Game 4 tomorrow. With Hiroki Kuroda’s availability for the rest of the playoffs still in doubt, Billingsley would presumably be lined up to be the Game 4 starter in the NLCS, scheduled for Monday, October 19.
Billingsley hasn’t pitched since facing the Padres on September 29, so if he doesn’t get to start tomorrow and then is asked to go in Game 4 of the next round, he’ll have had 19 days between outings. I don’t mind getting a young guy extra rest, but nearly three weeks between starts is a really tough request, not to mention one who’s had the issues that he had late in the season.
Letting him make a start tomorrow is not worth wanting to see this series extended, because if they lose tonight and he’s not sharp tomorrow we could easily be looking at a do-or-die Game 5 with a motivated-for-revenge Chris Carpenter on the mound, and no one wants that. It’s just a small positive that could come out of losing today’s game.
*****
As you’ve probably heard, Tony Abreu was officially traded to Arizona to complete the Jon Garland trade. I hated the trade when it happened, saying:
Look, if it’s Abreu, I’m going to be really unhappy. He’s a 24-year-old with a .991 OPS in AAA this year, and looks to finally have put his career back on track after two years of injuries. With Orlando Hudson headed back into free agency this offseason, I was strongly in favor of letting him walk and giving Abreu a crack at the second base job. Now – again, if it’s him – the Dodgers have just handed a division rival an excellent prospect for 5 mediocre starts of Jon Garland?
Survey says… We’ll of course have more to say on this once we know who the player is going back to Arizona. Right now, the feeling is more “worried” with a good chance of “horrified“.
So what did we get out of Garland? 36.1 IP over 6 starts. Five of those were decent before he imploded in his last one, but I haven’t changed my mind on this. The Dodgers will likely have a huge hole at 2B this offseason (I can’t see either Orlando Hudson or Ronnie Belliard being the Opening Day guy next year) and they handed a talented young player to a divison rival for 36.1 solid innings that had almost no bearing on the pennant race or, so far, the playoffs. Great deal, that.
Starring Matt Holliday As Bill Buckner!
October 8, 2009 at 6:40 pm | Posted in 2009 NLDS vs. Cardinals, Mark Loretta | 25 Comments
Wow.
Just… wow. I mean, a special brand of “holy good god are you f-cking kidding me” wow, but still… wow.
I had written up an entire piece about how today’s game, a tightly played pitcher’s duel, couldn’t have been more of a polar opposite from Game 1′s cripplefight of wasted opportunities. Not to glaze over that, but let’s give credit to Clayton Kershaw for keeping the Dodgers in the game, skip right past Adam Wainwright’s dominating performance, and go right ahead to the HOLY CRAP DID YOU SEE THAT?! 9th inning… my word, that 9th inning.
Andre Ethier pops to second, and after Ryan Franklin enters, Manny Ramirez flies out. Up comes James Loney, 0-3 to this point. As Loney flies out weakly to left field for the third out, the Cardinals had managed to survive Los Angeles with a split. They’d be headed back to St. Louis tied, facing the questionable Vicente Padilla, and with momentum squarely in their favor.
Except…
it can’t be…
Holliday tries to catch the ball with his junk, and Loney’s safe on second, soon replaced by pinch runner Juan Pierre.
Casey Blake strides to the plate, and if anyone’s going to make a statement against Franklin, it’s going to be Blake, who had an absurd OPS of 1.275 in 14 at-bats. Blake, in a hard-fought nine pitch at-bat, draws the walk, putting the winning run on base for the continuously struggling Russell Martin.
So with two men on, the much-maligned Ronnie Belliard comes up, hitless today. First pitch? Line drive up the middle! Pierre scores! Tie game! Matt Holliday looking like he’s going to be sick in left field.
That by itself is a pretty nice gift, because with two outs and the horribly struggling Russell Martin next and mostly useless pinch hitter Mark Loretta afterwards, I was ready to settle in for extra innings. But then Yadier Molina’s passed ball advances Blake and Belliard to second and third. And then Franklin loses the plate, walking Martin to load the bases for Loretta.
I’ve been pretty critical of Loretta this year, with good reason I think. He’s been dreadful, and I didn’t even want him on the NLDS roster. Over at the Big Blue Wrecking Crew, where I was enjoying the game, I said this as Loretta came to the plate:
Dear Mark Loretta,I’ve said nothing but bad things about you all year.
I keep calling you “the corpse of Mark Loretta”.
I didn’t want you on the NLDS roster.
Please make me eat my words.
Yours, MSTI
Of course, Loretta singles up the middle for the game-winning hit, and he’s earned a “Get Out of Jail Free” card on this site until the end of time. You heard it here; I will never be critical of Mark Loretta again.
This is going to be one of those games that’s talked about, oh, I don’t know, forever, and I don’t feel like I’ve done it even the slightest bit of justice. This, friends, was a gift from the baseball gods, and sometimes – just sometimes – those are the teams that end up having an October to remember.
Up 2-0 headed back to St. Louis… with a chance to close out the series. Un…believable. God damn, do I love baseball sometimes.
What Is With the Musical Ignorance of Today’s Baseball Media?
October 8, 2009 at 4:57 pm | Posted in 2009 NLDS vs. Cardinals, Bill Plaschke | 5 Comments
Bill Plaschke, tweeting on the national anthem:
Slash did weird guitar national anthem, making me wonder…who the heck is Slash?
Dick Stockton, in the bottom of the 6th discussing Russell Martin’s full name:
Coltrane is a tribute to Martin’s father, who was a jazz saxophonist.
NLDS Game 2: Electric Boogaloo
October 8, 2009 at 12:47 pm | Posted in 2009 NLDS vs. Cardinals, Orlando Hudson, Ronnie Belliard | 1 CommentThe official blog gives us the news that the lineup is going to be exactly the same today as it was yesterday.
I can already hear the complaining. “How can you keep Ronnie Belliard in over Orlando Hudson? Belliard botched the pop in the first inning, allowing a run to score! Belliard struck out twice against a mediocre version of Chris Carpenter! FREE ORLANDO HUDSON! BOOO! BOOO!”
To which I say: shush. As I’ve been saying for a while, you have to start Belliard in this game. You can claim small sample size all you want, but there’s got to be something to Belliard having an 1.110 OPS in 11 at-bats against Adam Wainwright, while Orlando Hudson has just a .200 mark in 10 at-bats. In what’s become almost a second base time-share, Belliard always had to start this game.
Now, if you want to say that Hudson should have started Game 1 because neither could have been expected to do much against Carpenter and at least you’d get Hudson’s superior defense, I wouldn’t have argued that. I’d just ask you to remember that Belliard did get on base three times yesterday, and helped start a crucial double-play to short-circuit what could have been a big Cardinal rally in the first inning.
Besides, if this game comes down to the miniscule difference right now between Hudson and Belliard, we’re all in big trouble anyway. No, tonight is all about Clayton Kershaw on the main stage, blowing away Redbirds left and right. Hopefully, anyway.
Don’t forget to join us over at the MSTI Facebook page tonight!
Dodgers 5, Cardinals 3
October 7, 2009 at 10:30 pm | Posted in 2009 NLDS vs. Cardinals, Bill Plaschke, Matt Kemp, Randy Wolf | 8 Comments
Be
honest. If I’d come up to you before the game and said, “so, you know
how everyone’s all freaking out about how awesome Chris Carpenter is?
Yeah, well, Randy Wolf’s going to put 11 men on – five walks! – in just
3.2 innings, including loading the bases with zero out in the first,”
how would you have felt about tonight’s odds?
If you said anything other than “I’d feel like stepping in front of
a bus… that’s headed off a cliff… and is full of orphans… with
diseases,” then you’re a dirty, dirty liar, and it’s time to
re-evaluate your life.
Really, it’s Wolf’s struggles that were the story of this game. He
wasn’t good – far from it. (To be fair, saying “five walks” is pretty
misleading, as two were intentional jobs to Albert Pujols and he
was getting squeezed by home plate umpire Dana DeMuth all night.) But
despite clearly not having his best stuff, Wolf was able to
keep the messes he kept getting into from getting out of control, which
is more than Carpenter could say. Wolf’s two runs allowed came on a
ball that Matt Kemp probably should have had in the first, and a
cueball double by Skip Schumaker in the fourth.
Meanwhile, Carpenter was also not his usual self – even the outs
were hit hard – but unlike Wolf, wasn’t able to avoid the big play,
which was of course a two-run bomb by Kemp that put a point – as if
there was any question - onto his arrival on the national stage as a
big-time player.
Wolf’s line was terrible tonight, and I guarantee you’re going to
see a slew of articles in the morning about how the Dodgers rotation
issues are already rearing their head. In my book, I’m giving Wolf a
huge deal of credit for keeping this thing calm when he could have
easily left down 6-2.
Heroes
Matt Kemp. He got a poor jump on that ball in the
first that could have prevented the first run, but more than made up
for it. If the Dodgers go quietly in the bottom of the first after the
Cards loaded the bases in the top, it could have changed the complexion
of the entire game. It’s amazing how different it feels to be facing a
Cy Young winner when you’ve just deposited a ball into the dead center
bleachers, doesn’t it?
Jeff Weaver. The man who I didn’t expect to even be
on the NLDS roster was put into an impossible spot when Wolf left in
the 4th inning. The Cards had loaded the bases with two outs, and had
just scored to draw within a run. A hit here blows the entire game
open; but Weaver got Ryan Ludwick to tap weakly back to the mound to
put out the fire, and then added a scoreless fifth on top of it.
Rafael Furcal. After a very mediocre season, Furcal
ended the year red-hot (.891 OPS in Sept/Oct). But who knew if that
would hold up into October? Well, how’s 3-4 with a triple and a
sacrifice fly RBI strike you? He could be a huge secret weapon this
month.
Every Dodger pitcher who faced Albert Pujols. When
you’re facing the absolutely-no-doubt-about-it, might-not-even-be-human
best player alive, and in five trips to the plate he comes away with
three groundouts and two intentional walks, you know you’ve done a good
job. That is how you beat the Cardinals. For the record, that’s
Wolf three times (two intentional walks and a groundout), Belisario
once (groundout), and Broxton once (groundout).
Having an awesome bullpen.
Belisario in the 6th! Kuo in the 7th! Sherrill in the 8th! Broxton in
the 9th! That’s just the scariest foursome of fireballers around, and
you haven’t even used Ramon Troncoso yet.
Including Weaver, the
five relievers combined for 5.1 innings of 5 hit, 1 run ball, a line
which could have even been better if Kemp hadn’t misplayed that hit in
the 9th. We’ve been saying it for months around here – it doesn’t
matter if your starters go deep into games in a short series with lots
of off-days when you have a pen like this.
Joe Torre. No hesitation to pull Wolf in the 4th
before things got out of hand, inevitable complaining that he’s
overworking the bullpen be damned. Clearly, you can’t ask the pen to
work 5-6 innings every night, but few things are more important than
winning a Game 1.
Brendan Ryan.
This was probably common knowledge to a lot of people, but I had
absolutely no idea he was rocking such an epic pornstar/child molester
‘stache. The sheer cojones it takes to wear such a thing puts
him squarely in the “heroes” category, and probably gets him on the
offseason list of “guys we need to trade for.”
Just look at it. Look at it. It’s glorious, horrifying, and ingenious all at the same time.
MSTI fans on Facebook. What? You’re not a fan yet? What are you waiting for? We had a pretty good conversation going on over there tonight. It’s what the cool kids are doing.
Goats
Tony LaRussa. Come on, Tony. I know you’re
notorious for this, so I can’t be surprised, but do you have any idea
how painful it is to watch you stride to the mound 12 times a night?
Did we really need to go through 3 pitchers in the 6th inning? I’m
watching this game from the East Coast, friend-o. Help a brother get
some sleep. This game didn’t need to be 3 hours, 52 minutes.
Mark DeRosa. It didn’t mean much in the course of the game, but there’s throwing errors and then there’s throwing errors. That ball he airmailed into right field from third base was at least 25 feet off the ground. Hey, keep it up, fella!
Matt Kemp.
Hey, Bison, you can hit awesome dingers off Cy Young Award winners all
you want. That’s enough to look past a bad jump that probably cost a
run in the first inning. And while not getting to the possible
game-ending ball was bad enough, allowing it to bounce past you to
allow a run to score is unacceptable. Fortunately, Broxton was able to
end it, but it should never have come to the tying run being at the
plate. That said, it was good to see him mouth “my bad” during the
fistbumps at the end.
Cashing in opportunities. This is on both teams; an
NLDS record 30 men left on base. You could say “well, that’s good
pitching not letting runners score,” but remember – you have to get 30
men on base in the first place.
TBS. I know it’s probably hard to get used to live events when you’re mostly showing reruns of Family Guy
and “Con Air”, but you realize how bad things are when the fact you’re
subjecting us to the Corpse of Dick Stockton isn’t the worst offense,
right? Because I know when I think of “playoff baseball,” I think “Dick
Stockton”. Actually, when I think of “Dick Stockton,” I think of
“Grizzlies! Timberwolves! It’s meaningless December basketball!” Or at
least I would if I gave a dick about the NBA. Which I do not. Anyway,
it’s all well and good that you point out that you realize you’re
having technical difficulties, but could you, I don’t know, FIX IT? I
was seeing jumpy video and losing audio for the entire game. Oh, and
Dick – Carpenter wasn’t “gritty” tonight. He was just lousy.
Bill Plaschke. It goes without saying that he’s
always a goat, but I’m starting to wonder why the grumpy old man agrees
to cover a team he so clearly hates. What were your thoughts in the
first inning? Mine went something along the lines of “Crap, Wolf
doesn’t look great/Phew, he got out of it/MATT KEMP IS A GOLDEN GOD!”
First error on Joe Torre, for playing
Ronnie Belliard at second base, fly ball falls between Belliard and
Matt Kemp for first Cardinal run..
Don’t
forget, tomorrow’s a 3:07pm Pacific start. So skip work, cut class,
break out of jail, do whatever you need to do. Kershaw! Wainwright!
Dodgers lead, 1-0!
NLDS Game 1: It’s Go-Time
October 7, 2009 at 3:09 pm | Posted in 2009 NLDS vs. Cardinals | 19 CommentsYou better believe that the playoffs are the time that the MSTI Golden Rule of “No game threads, no game recaps” goes by the wayside. It’s on.
SS Furcal
CF Kemp
RF Ethier
LF Manny
1B Loney
3B Blake
2B Belliard
C Martin
SP Wolf
Hey, remember when Matt Kemp was our 8th place hitter? Yeah, me neither.
Look, this isn’t going to be easy. Chris Carpenter is one of the best pitchers in baseball no matter how you slice it, and no Dodger has had much success against him. Just remember the positives here: the Cardinals can’t hit lefties, and almost all of their offense is in the hands of just two players.
Now go find yourself a frosty beverage, alcoholic or not, and enjoy seeing the Dodgers in the playoffs for the 3rd time in 4 years, and the 4th in 6th.
NLDS Roster Announced
October 7, 2009 at 11:50 am | Posted in 2009 NLDS vs. Cardinals, Jeff Weaver | 2 CommentsHot off the presses…
The Dodgers will carry 11 pitchers and 14 position players. The roster is as follows:
Pitchers (11)
Ronald Belisario, RHP
Chad Billingsley, RHP
Jonathan Broxton, RHP
Jon Garland, RHP
Clayton Kershaw, LHP
Hong-Chih Kuo, LHP
Vicente Padilla, RHP
George Sherrill, LHP
Ramon Troncoso, RHP
Jeff Weaver, RHP
Randy Wolf, LHPCatchers (2)
Russell Martin
Brad AusmusInfielders (8)
Ronnie Belliard
Casey Blake
Juan Castro
Rafael Furcal (S)
Orlando Hudson (S)
James Loney (L)
Mark Loretta
Jim Thome (L)Outfielders (4)
Andre Ethier (L)
Matt Kemp
Juan Pierre (L)
Manny Ramirez
Quick thoughts:
1) Surprised – pleasantly – to see 11 pitchers rather than 12. With Thome only a pinch-hitter, flexibility would have been strictly limited.
2) Jeff Weaver makes the cut, and James McDonald doesn’t. He was an afterthought down the stretch – just 7.1 innings since August 30th – so it’s a surprise to see him making the squad.
3) We just can’t shake the corpse of Mark Loretta, can we?
What the What?
October 6, 2009 at 3:35 pm | Posted in 2009 NLDS vs. Cardinals, Chad Billingsley, Orlando Hudson, Ronnie Belliard, Vicente Padilla | 4 Comments
Lineups for Game 1 of the NLDS are in: (hat tip Dodger Thoughts)
Rafael Furcal, SS
Matt Kemp, CF
Andre Ethier, LF
Manny Ramirez, LF
James Loney, 1B
Casey Blake, 3B
Ronnie Belliard, 2B
Russell Martin, C
Randy Wolf, P
Wait, Belliard over Orlando Hudson? They had basically shared the job for the month of September, so on the surface that shouldn’t be all that surprising. But what is surprising is that you absolutely have to start Belliard in Game 2 against Adam Wainwright, just based on what I wrote in my “reasons to be happy to face the Cardinals” post a few days ago:
3) The Dodgers have a great history of hitting Adam Wainwright.
Six Dodgers have had eleven or more at-bats in their careers against Wainwright, and five have had great success – and the one who hasn’t is Brad Ausmus, who won’t be facing him anyway.
Look at those OPS numbers! What will be really interesting will be the second base decision in that game; as you can see, Ron Belliard has done very well against Wainwright, but Orlando Hudson, who would have been next on this list, has just one hit in ten at-bats against him.
There’s no way you don’t start Belliard against Wainwright in Game 2; not only has he hit him in the (admittedly small sample size) past, but Hudson has had terrible luck against him. That being the case, are you really going to start Belliard the first two games and relegate Hudson to a full-fledged bench player? Neither one can hit Chris Carpenter a lick (combined 1 single in 14 tries), so there’s no sense in playing the numbers there.
I suppose this also means the Dodgers are confident in Belliard’s hamstring, despite his missing a week and getting just one at-bat in the season finale. Or maybe it was just the fact that Hudson ended the season on a 1-13 tear that caused them to make that call. So I’m okay with this, as long as Belliard starts in Game 2 as well.
In other news, a bit of a surprise comes with Vicente Padilla being named the Game 3 starter over Chad Billingsley, with Billingsley going in Game 4. You’d think I’d be mad about this - the veteran retread picked up for free getting the nod over the talented young star who I’ve advocated for.
But you know what? I’m not. Billingsley still gets a start – this isn’t Padilla and Jon Garland over Billingsley – and Padilla was so dominant against the Rockies on Sunday that it’s hard to not want to see that again. Besides, Padilla’s had great success against these Cardinals, allowing just one homer in 73 plate appearances (and that to Troy Glaus, who might not even play) and has been especially crushing to Mark DeRosa, who’s hitting just .182 in 24 shots against Padilla.
So I get it. And I don’t mind it that much. I just can’t wrap my head around the fact that Vicente Padilla is the Game 3 starter in the NLDS. Not Chad Billingsley. Not Hiroki Kuroda. Vicente Padilla. Face=melt.
God, I love the playoffs.
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