Winter Meetings Day Four: Rule 5, MacDougal, & Court Battles (Updated)
December 8, 2011 at 6:21 am | Posted in Aaron Harang, Dana Eveland, James Loney, Jarret Martin, Mike MacDougal, Tyler Henson | 144 CommentsUpdate, 9:39am PT:
After what seems like weeks, we finally have confirmation that the Aaron Harang signing is official. Dylan Hernandez reports that he’ll make $3m in 2012 and $7m in 2013; there’s a $2m buyout of a 2014 vesting option. That’s right: next year, you can look forward to paying Aaron Harang seven million dollars. As Eric Stephen sadly notes, the club is now lined up to pay Harang, Chris Capuano, Ted Lilly, Matt Guerrier, Juan Uribe, Mark Ellis, & Jerry Hairston $47.25 million in 2013. Unbelievable.
Update, 8:50am PT:
We now know the second player coming from Baltimore, outfielder Tyler Henson. He turns 24 in a week and in parts of five seasons on the farm, his line is .263/.322/.387; last year, his first at Triple-A, was less than that, at .247/.313/.321 and three homers in 498 plate appearances. LiK. Martin, he appears to be a toolsy player (was recruited to play football out of college) who has shown little indication of ever translating that to performance. Again, though, it’s Dana Eveland, so this is free talent.
Update, 8:17am PT:
Coming back from Baltimore for Eveland is LHP Jarret Martin and a player to be named later. Martin’s 22, was an 18th-round pick in 2009, and has had a rough go of it in two seasons in the low minors, walking 5.9/9. The results haven’t been there, but the reports are somewhat promising.
John Sickels, Minor League Ball, March 2011:
SLEEPER ALERT!! Martin was selected in the 18th round in 2009, from Bakersfield Junior College. He has a sinking fastball in the low 90s that helped him post a 2.03 GO/AO last year in the Appy League. He also has a promising curveball, and the combination of the two pitches throttled left-handed hitters to a .188 mark for Bluefield. His K/IP and H/IP ratios were quite good, but he also walked too many guys, elevating his ERA. I am intrigued with this one; if Martin can sharpen his command even slightly, he could break out in 2011. Grade C, but a sleeper.
ADDITIONAL COMMENT: Good size and some arm strength here, plus I like the combination of strikeouts and ground balls. As stated, he needs to get the walks down, but any progress in that department could take him a long way. Sources who follow the Orioles closely are quite intrigued with him.
Orioles Nation, October 2010:
Martin, 21, has undoubtedly good stuff, striking out 68 batters in 59.2 innings while holding them to a .204 batting average. He attacks hitters with a low 90′s fastball with some sink and run, which is backed up by two above-average secondaries in a curveball and changeup.
When you look at his stats, the only thing that jumps out in a bad way are the walks. Martin needs to find a more consistent release point in order to throw more strikes. His stuff is so dominating that he was able to find success despite the control problems (6.9 BB/9).
I don’t expect Martin to ever amount to anything, but it hardly matters. A fringy prospect and a player to be named for Dana F’ing Eveland, who was likely to be non-tendered next week anyway? Hell yes, I’ll take that.
Update, 7:51am PT:
Jon Morosi reporting Baltimore has acquired Dana Eveland from the Dodgers. No word yet on what’s coming in return – not much, surely – but the simple entertainment in the fact that the O’s would give up absolutely anything for Eveland is value enough.
Original post:
It’s been a fun week, yet as the Winter Meetings come to an end today, I have to say I’m relieved. Sure, all the rumors make this an incredibly interesting time of year, and I certainly can’t complain about the extra site traffic, yet the entire thing can be exhausting. Still, there’s a few items on the table for today to get us started, and I’ll update as needed.
* In a little less than an hour (10am ET / 7am PT) the Rule 5 draft will begin. The Dodgers aren’t expected to make any selections, though it’ll be interesting to see if they lose anyone, like Cole St. Clair, Kyle Russell, or Gorman Erickson.
* Once again, we don’t have to worry about Logan White leaving for another team; the Astros have hired former Cardinals exec Jeff Luhnow as their new general manager.
* Despite all the fun we had trying to figure out who the bat was that Ned Colletti may have been interested in, Dylan Hernandez reports that the deal is dead. I can’t confirm this, but Tony Jackson was reportedly on ESPN Radio guessing 
that the target may have been Jed Lowrie or Emilio Bonifacio. I’ve long liked Lowrie, though I’m not sure how yet another infielder would have fit. Doesn’t matter now, I guess.
* Confirming our worst fears, Jackson also reports that the Dodgers are still extremely interested in Mike MacDougal. You all know my feelings on this by now – though if anyone else brings up his shiny 2.05 ERA as an indicator of any skill again I’m going to scream – and I don’t mind him returning… on a minor-league deal. It’s the two-year deal he’ll probably receive that’ll push me over the edge.
* Wow:
Dodgers first baseman James Loney was arrested last month in Los Angeles after crashing his Maserati into three cars and spitting at an officer, but was not charged with a crime, according to a police report obtained by TMZ.com.
A spokesman said the club was aware of the incident and was looking into it. A representative for Loney could not be reached.
Loney, 27, was arrested Nov. 14 after hitting a Toyota, Mercedes and Mini around 6 p.m. PT. When officers arrived on the scene of the accident, according to the report, Loney was handcuffed and taken to a hospital for breathalyzer and blood tests, which were negative for drugs and alcohol.
However, during the tests and according to the report, Loney was uncooperative and became “aggressive,” spitting the mouthpiece at an officer. He was placed in arm and leg restraints and given an injection by hospital staff to calm him. The Los Angeles city attorney will decide if Loney will be charged in the incident.
That certainly doesn’t sound good, though I’m sure there’s a whole lot more to the story. I doubt it’ll change the near-certainty that he gets tendered on Monday.
* Finally, with all of the player movement this week, we’ve really been neglecting the most important story of all, the continued legal battle between Frank McCourt and FOX. Thanks to the tireless reporting of Bill Shaikin, we’ve learned that McCourt must have an agreement to sell the team by April 30 (good news), that he could still retain rights to the parking lots around the stadium (bad news) and that the hearings which continue today in a Delaware courtroom about re-opening TV rights appear to be headed heavily against FOX and for McCourt (worse news). Much more on this as the dust settles.
Winter Meetings Day Two: Aaron Harang Heads North
December 6, 2011 at 7:39 am | Posted in Aaron Harang | 50 Comments
When we left off last night, the Aaron Harang signing wasn’t yet official, since it appeared Harang might be holding out for three years. This morning, Jon Heyman confirms that it’s done for two years and about $12m (though no details are out yet, you can bet that’s heavily backloaded). As you can imagine, I’m not thrilled, though I feel basically the opposite about this as I did with Jerry Hairston: Hairston is a usable piece who might not have been the best fit for the hole on this roster, while Harang fills a very real need – a veteran starter – yet might not be the best person to do so.
Harang, as you might know, was a very solid starter for Cincinnati between 2005-07, before his career fell apart with the Reds between 2008-10. That led him to the place where every troubled pitcher goes to resuscitate their career, San Diego, where the Padres gave him one year at $3m. I want to stop right here if I can, though, because I keep reading that Harang’s 2011 was a “comeback” or a “bounceback” or a “rebound”, and that’s simply not true.
Let’s look at Harang’s last three seasons in Cincinnati, where his career went south, and then his lone year in San Diego, shall we?
As you can see, he’s been largely the same pitcher over the last four years, if anything trending downward, since he’s walking more and striking out less. Not that a FIP in the 4s isn’t usable from a back-of-the-rotation guy, of course, but where is all of the business about his big comeback coming from? Oh, right: stats that don’t matter. Let’s take another look at that chart…
And there it is. Harang was only slightly better in 2011 than he was in 2010 (if even at all, since the K/BB stats are identical), but the change in ballpark environment (not to mention the improvement in the defense behind him, since the Padres were one of the better fielding teams in baseball last year) had a huge impact on his unadjusted and meaningless ERA and W/L totals.
Don’t believe me? In 17 starts at Petco last year, Harang allowed opponents to put up a line of just .240/.304/.380, largely due to a BABIP that was a below-average .252. On the road, that line shot up to .317/.374/.504, with the resulting OPS of .878 meaning that the average batter he saw away from San Diego produced like Robinson Cano, Josh Hamilton, Alex Gordon, or Jose Reyes, all of whom put up seasons like that this year.
The Padres recognized this and declined to exercise their portion of a 1/$5m mutual option (which I’ll grant, Harang wasn’t going to accept anyway). The Dodgers apparently didn’t, and where the team that should know Harang best wouldn’t even pay 1/$5m, the Dodgers saw fit to go with 2/$12m – twice the years, and more than twice the money. Where’s your Alex Tamin now?
Worse, the contract just doesn’t make sense in the marketplace. Just take a look at Freddy Garcia, who put up very similar stats to Harang last year (FIP of 4.12 vs 4.17, K/BB of 2.13 vs 2.14) while pitching in the tough AL East; Garcia returned to the Yankees last month for one year and $5m. Or even look closer to home at the 2/$10m Chris Capuano got from the Dodgers last week. Capuano’s 2011 was arguably superior (FIP of 4.04 vs 4.17, K/BB of 3.17 vs 2.14) plus he’s a lefty who’s a few months younger than Harang, yet Harang walks away with more money. Why? There’s no other answer here than “once again, wins and ERA garnered far too much attention.”
Now, I don’t want to sound like there’s no utility to this deal at all. I didn’t want Nathan Eovaldi to start the year in the rotation, so I acknowledge the need for another starter, and it’s not like Dodger Stadium is some hitter’s paradise. Harang, if healthy (a big if, since he’s spent at least a month on the DL in each of the last four seasons) can provide some use as a starter who can put up a FIP in the mid-4′s, which doesn’t sound like much but can be harder to find than you’d think. It’s just hard to see how this helps the team win, since now that Hiroki Kuroda is gone, you have Clayton Kershaw followed by the always uncertain Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly, and two guys like Ted Lilly. Sure, it’s nice to say that these guys will be fine in the NL West because they still get to pitch in San Diego and San Francisco, but you’ve now picked up three of the most homer-prone pitchers in baseball – and Kershaw alone can’t pitch every game in Colorado and Arizona.
For all the money Colletti has spent on 30+ veterans this winter, I’m not sure the team is even one game better for it. But if not better, they’re at least older and more expensive. So that’s something, right?
Winter Meetings, Day One (Updated)
December 5, 2011 at 6:39 am | Posted in Aaron Harang, Alberto Castillo, Clayton Kershaw, Jamie Hoffmann, Jerry Hairston, Matt Dominguez, Ronald Belisario, Winter Meetings | 61 CommentsUpdate, 3:23pm PST:
And there it is. According to Ken Rosenthal, Hairston is done for 2/$6m. But there’s also this:
#Dodgers still working on Harang. Deal expected to be north of Capuano. Two years, $12M range
You know why? WINS AND ERA. Harang wasn’t better than Capuano last year. But he’s getting paid like he was because he had more wins and a lower ERA. Aaaaaaand head asplode.
Update, 3:03pm PST:
More fun! The Dodgers reportedly have a two-year offer out to utilityman Jerry Hairston, Jr. In theory, I don’t mind this, because unlike Adam Kennedy, Hairston has some offensive value and can play all over. But what’s with all of the two-year deals? Capuano got two. Mark Ellis got two. Harang reportedly will get two. Hairston, now, might have two. I’d say that Ned Colletti was looking to take next winter off entirely… if not for the fact that I desperately hope that’s happening regardless.
Update, 2:16pm PST:
Ken Gurnick at dodgers.com with news of two additional non-roster invites in addition to Shane Lindsay and Wil Ledezma, who we already knew about: pitcher Jose Ascanio and infielder Jeff Baisley. I’d be lying if I said I’d ever heard of either. Baisley, 29 this month, is a corner infielder who had a brief cup of coffee with the 2008 A’s, but has otherwise spent the last four years inflating his stats in the rarified air of the PCL. Ascanio, 27 in May, has seen big-league time in 46 games over parts of four seasons with the Pirates, Cubs, and Braves. In 30 games (five starts) for Pittsburgh’s Triple-A club in 2011, he struck out 50 in 44 innings, so that’s something. More Albuquerque fodder.
Update, 12:31pm PST:
All sorts of reports are landing that the Dodgers are nearing a deal with Aaron Harang. We’ll see how the dollar figures land before we judge; Harang was pretty bad outside of Petco last year, but you just cannot start the season with Nathan Eovaldi in the rotation. (Also, I suppose this answers the Hoffmann waiver as well.)
Also, hey, Harang, Ted Lilly, and Chris Capuano in the same rotation? Man, this team is totally going to win that 2006 wild card.
Update, 12:13pm PT:
Well, here’s a thing: per the official Colorado Rockies Twitter, the Dodgers have lost outfielder Jamie Hoffmann on waivers to their division rivals. This is the second time the Dodgers have said goodbye to Hoffmann, who was claimed by the Yankees in the 2010 Rule 5 draft before being returned before the end of camp. I’ve always felt that Hoffmann could have been useful as a reserve outfielder with a little pop who could play solid defense at all three positions, but he never really got a chance with the big club despite plenty of turnover around Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier.
The 40-man roster was full until Hoffmann was lost, and today was the deadline to set the 40-man before Thursday’s Rule 5 draft, making it possible the Dodgers are setting up for a claim. That, or another free agent signing, I suppose.
Update, 10:05am PT:
Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com reports the Dodgers are close to signing former Baltimore & Arizona reliever Alberto Castillo to a minor-league deal. In 79 MLB games over parts of the last four seasons, he’s got a 5.02 FIP and 1.78 K/BB, so he’ll be Triple-A filler at best. Despite his limited MLB experience, he’ll turn 37 next July; after some minor league time in the Giants & Yankees systems from 1994-98, he didn’t turn up again in American affiliated baseball until 2008.
Update, 9:50am PT:
This isn’t really a winter meetings rumor, but still fun to share. John Sickels has released his top 20 Dodger prospect list over at Minor League Ball, and to no one’s surprise Zach Lee tops the chart. Sadly, neither Tim Federowicz or the two relievers obtained in the Trayvon Robinson trade even make the top 20. It’s worth a click to see all of Sickels’ comments; here’s how he sums up the system:
The Dodgers farm system isn’t in terrific condition, but it’s not bad, either. They have good strength in right-handed starting pitching: Lee, Eovaldi, Webster, Gould, Sanchez, and Withrow could all develop into workhorse starters and perhaps more. Lee has the best projection and gets the highest grade, but all of these guys have the stuff to succeed, if they stay healthy, of course. There are also several impressive relief arms, beginning with Josh Lindblom who has already shown what he can do in the majors. Keep a close eye on sleeper prospect Red Patterson, who I might bump up to a C+.
Chris Reed and the now-overlooked Aaron Miller provide some southpaw balance as potential mid-rotation starters. Lefty efficiency specialist Mike Antonini is a Grade C type, but was added to the 40-man roster and has the potential to be a surprise. Guys like him sometimes pitch better with a major league defense behind them than they do in the minors, at least in short stretches.
The system is a lot weaker with position players. There are some exciting tools guys (Baldwin stands out) in the organization, but only Silverio and Pederson have shown much polish, the former after a long struggle. Pederson could have the highest grade a year from now if he performs well in full-season ball. There is a group of interesting power hitters (Songco, Smith, Van Slyke, Russell, possibly Dickson) who put up big numbers, but have flaws in their approach, are old for the level, or lack the tools to interest scouts. They should at least get a role player out of that group, although which one it will be is hard to say. Catching prospect Gorman Erickson needs a lot more attention than he’s received. Baseball America loves Tim Federowicz. I respect his glove and he’ll have a long career, but I don’t see his bat being good enough for him to get beyond role player status.
Original post:
As we’ve done in years past around here, I’ll do something of a “live blog” format each day of the winter meetings, since the news and rumors tend to fly so fast that it’s the only way to keep track of what’s going on. As each ludicrous, unbelievable story from a “source” flows in, I’ll update the post as warranted.
Let’s get the party started with a few notes:
** The Marlins beat everyone to the punch by signing Jose Reyes to a reported 6/$106m deal last night, which is probably going to result in Hanley Ramirez moving to third base while Chris Coghlan and Emilio Bonifacio handle center field. This has nothing to do with the Dodgers – though as a baseball fan, I have to admit I’m enjoying seeing the Marlins make some moves, given that they already have Heath Bell and are reportedly still attempting to get Albert Pujols and a starting pitcher – but assuming that Ramirez does agree to the move, that means that 2007 first-round pick Matt Dominguez is going to get blocked at the hot corner. Though he’s reportedly one of the best defensive third basemen around, the Chatsworth product has never really lived up to his offensive hype in the minors, hitting just .255/.325/.418 in parts of five seasons on the farm. However, he made his MLB debut last year and is only three months past his 22nd birthday, and the Dodgers have absolutely nothing at the position in the minors, so I’d be interested in checking in to see if he could be picked up relatively cheaply.
** From the “same time next year?” files: Ken Gurnick reports that Ronald Belisario, missing in action since the end of 2010 with visa issues, is still trying to return to the Dodgers. In other news, I want a date with Alison Brie. Seriously though, if he’s able to get past his legal concerns and return to the US, he’d be a welcome addition, since he was so good in 2009 and a bit underrated due to ERA in 2010. I have no idea if the Dodgers would even be interested in him at this point, and it’s hard to blame them if they’ve decided to simply wash their hands of him. Still, the performance he’s capable of for the minimum salary is intriguing.
Of course, since it’s likely he never gets his visa issues sorted out, this is probably a conversation that’s not even worth having.
** Don’t get too excited about this, but it’s worth at least sharing Buster Olney’s tweet from this morning…
The representatives for Clayton Kershaw have had early contact with the Dodgers about a long-term deal,but no serious talks have taken place
While this would of course be fantastic, I find it incredibly unlikely that Kershaw could get an extension in the same winter as Matt Kemp, especially considering all of the payroll issues. As Olney says, the talks aren’t too serious yet anyway. If Kershaw did sign this winter, he could probably expect something like a 5/$80m deal.
** Finally, a reminder to keep some perspective this week. We’re all well aware by now that the offseason rumors we see in the age of Twitter are 90% posturing and BS; well, with all of the execs, agents, and media in the same place – and let’s face it, the same bars – you can be sure that the rumors that come from this week are to be taken with a grain of salt 100 times as large. (Which I suppose makes them 9000% posturing and BS, which, while mathematically impossible, sounds about right.)
Just remember, on the first day alone of the meetings last year, these were two actual rumors that popped up:
Tony Jackson with our first “HOLY CRAP!” moment:
Multiple sources told ESPNLosAngeles.com’s Tony Jackson on Monday that the Brewers are talking to the Dodgers about a deal that would send Prince Fielder from Milwaukee to Los Angeles for Loney and embattled closer Jonathan Broxton.
Yes, yes, yes, a million times yes.
and:
RT @washingnats: #Dodgers want #Nats SS Ian Desmond and RHP Jordan Zimmermann for James Loney
HAHAHAHA. Um, and I want a pony.
So just keep that in mind this week when you see someone suggesting that Matt Guerrier might get moved for Bryce Harper, okay?
Fishing At the Bottom of the Starting Pitching Market
December 1, 2011 at 8:40 am | Posted in Aaron Cook, Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, Hiroki Kuroda, Jeff Francis, Paul Maholm | 46 CommentsAs the days go by, we’re hearing little about Hiroki Kuroda’s plan for 2012, and the longer we go, the less likely it seems that he’ll return to the Dodgers. By comparison, last year his one-year deal to return was all but finalized by November 13. Of course, what we’ve been hearing lately is that the delay this time around is less about whether Kuroda wants to come back than it is about whether the Dodgers can even afford to pay him, as Bill Shaikin painfully pointed out yesterday:
#Dodgers parent company reports $9.9 million in “bankruptcy-related expenses” thru Oct 31. Dodgers might not have $ to bring Kuroda back.
Consider that another fun parting gift from Frank McCourt, though it’s hard to argue that the millions foolishly committed to Juan Rivera and others couldn’t have been better allocated by Ned Colletti as well.
If Kuroda doesn’t return, the Dodgers simply can’t go into the season with Dana Eveland and Nathan Eovaldi as their 4th and 5th starters (I’d prefer that neither of them be in the rotation, though that may be unavoidable), and that means that they’ll need to dip into the shallow end of the veteran free agent pool, where they’ve already been linked to Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, and Jeff Francis.
A word of warning: this isn’t going to be pretty. It never is when you’re trying to buy low on the open market.
RHP Aaron Harang, 34
Harang was once a solid workhorse for the Reds, tossing at least 211 innings for three seasons in a row until his career was derailed in 2008 in large part due to Dusty Baker forcing him into a relief appearance and making him throw 239 pitches in an eight-day span. After a feeble end to his Cincinnati career, he entered the starting pitcher equivalent of the Betty Ford Clinic – Petco Park – and voila! A superficially pretty 14-7, 3.64 record for the Padres… despite having basically identical K/9 and BB/9 rates as he did in his final season with the Reds, where he went 6-7, 5.32. Amazing what pitching in San Diego will do for a flyball-prone pitcher, isn’t it? (Shockingly, his home/road splits are large.)
Harang declined his half of a $5m player option to return to his hometown Padres in 2012, so it seems clear he’s not looking for a minimum-salary deal. (Because, you know, wins!) That said, watch him go to the Giants and go 16-8, 3.78 pitching in that ballpark.
LHP Chris Capuano, 33
You want to win a bar bet this offseason? Ask people which starting pitcher had the single most effective start of 2011, according to “Game Score”. It’s not Justin Verlander, and it’s not Clayton Kershaw; it was Capuano, who struck out 13 Braves without a walk in tossing a two-hit shutout on August 26. The two-time Tommy John survivor came back from missing all of 2008 and 2009 (and half of 2010) to throw 186 decent innings for the Mets, as the advanced stats (3.67 SIERA, 4.04 FIP) belied his 4.55 ERA. For the $1.5m contract he signed (which ended up being about $3.9m with the incentives he reached), he provided a solid and unexpected value for New York, striking out three times as many as he walked – even briefly becoming a target of a bizarre trade rumor in late September as the Red Sox desperately tried to stave off their collapse.
But there’s some warning signs here. In addition to obvious concerns about his durability – and don’t ignore that whenever he went beyond five innings last year, his ERA was north of 8 – Capuano has had a career-long issue with keeping the ball in the yard, topping out at a Lilly-esque 1.31 HR/9 last year. And when I say “Lilly-esque”, I mean, his 1.31 is exactly the same as Ted Lilly allowed, and we laughed at Lilly all year long. The cozy dimensions of CitiField helped him hide that somewhat, as he allowed seven fewer dingers at home despite pitching 17 more innings there, fueling some brutal home/road splits.
Capuano reportedly wants a two-year deal, which the Mets are seemingly unwilling to do; in a world where a similar soft-tossing lefty like Bruce Chen can pick up a two-year deal for at least $9m, it’s probably not out of the question that he’ll get it.
LHP Jeff Francis, 31
Francis has had an interesting career in the sense that while he was once massively overrated due to his 17-9 record with Colorado in 2007, he’s now somewhat underrated due to going 6-16 for the Royals in 2011. (Fun fact #1: when he won 17 games, his FIP was 4.19. When he lost 16, it was 4.10. Yay, wins!) Francis missed all of 2009 and part of 2010 due to injury, and while he was once routinely in the 86-88 MPH range, he averaged only 84.7 MPH on his fastball last year.
Predictably, he doesn’t strike anyone out – just 91 in 183 IP – and if you’re going to survive like that, you need to be sure you’re limiting the longball and keeping walks to a minimum. That’s exactly how he succeeded, allowing just 1.9 BB/9 and 0.9 HR/9 with the Royals in 2011. In theory, the Dodgers have built a solid defensive infield, which could benefit Francis since he’s not generating a lot of outs on his own. Of course, Francis operates with such little room for error that if he loses even a little of his control the results could be disastrous. Or he could be Jamie Moyer, pitching for another 20 years. Soft-tossing lefties are always so fun to try to predict. (Fun fact #2: on Baseball Reference’s Similarity Score list, Francis’ #3 comparable is Capuano. #8 is old friend Mark Hendrickson.)
LHP Paul Maholm, 30
The Dodgers haven’t been linked to Maholm, but he’s worth throwing out there now that he’s a free agent since the Pirates declined his $9.75m 2012 option. Like most of these other guys, he’s a soft-tossing lefty who doesn’t strike out very many and has decent control, but he’s been more successful because he’s great at keeping the ball in the park, averaging just 0.8 HR/9 over his career. As a groundballer, he’d do well in front of a good infield defense, though as a relatively durable starter in a winter devoid of pitching depth, he’s probably in line for a somewhat overpriced multiple-year deal. If the Dodgers can’t afford Kuroda, they’re probably not going to be paying Maholm either, since he’s going to be attractive to whomever loses out on the C.J. Wilson sweepstakes.
RHP Aaron Cook, 33
Cook, like Maholm, has not been mentioned in any reports linking him to the Dodgers that I’ve seen, and he’s now on the market after Colorado declined his $11m option. Cook is Colorado’s all-time wins leader, though in recent years he’s been sidetracked by a litany of injuries, including “a sprained toe, displaced right fibula fracture, a broken ring finger, and shoulder inflammation,” bottoming out by going 3-10 with a 6.03 ERA for the Rockies last year.
Or so it would seem, anyway. Cook’s 4.54 FIP last year isn’t all that far off from what it was during his productive years, as he was hurt by a BABIP of .345 that was far above what he’s ever seen before. When he’s right, he’s even more of an extreme groundball type that Maholm, though it remains to be seen if all of the injuries have robbed him of the ability to be even average.
******
There are, of course, plenty of other guys out there, from guys the Dodgers won’t be in on (Mark Buehrle, Roy Oswalt, Edwin Jackson, Javier Vazquez), to injury-riddled former stars (Erik Bedard, Rich Harden) to even more fungible back-end types (Zach Duke, Doug Davis, Jason Marquis, Bartolo Colon, Joel Pineiro, who somehow struck out only 3.8/9 last year).
If Kuroda doesn’t return, it seems certain that the Dodgers end up with at least one of these retreads. (Personally, I’d prefer Kuroda and one, allowing Eveland/Eovaldi to be backups, but that doesn’t sound likely.) So which? In terms of talent in the five that we looked at, I’d probably go Maholm / Capuano / Francis / Harang / Cook. Yet the Dodgers likely aren’t going to be able to afford Maholm, and the thought of guaranteeing Capuano two years to give up dingers terrifies me. So while I can’t believe I’m actually typing these words, if this is the best the Dodgers can do… I might have to go with Jeff Francis. He’s probably undervalued, coming off a 6-16 record, he made only $2m last year so he can’t be expecting a huge raise, and I love pitchers who don’t walk anyone. (I’d also take Cook on an NRI or minimum-salary lottery ticket.)
Now watch Colletti go out and get Francis, but for $18m guaranteed.
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