A.J. Ellis Walks Off In Most A.J. Ellis Way Possible

…is it really only May 18? Because, I am honestly not sure how many of these games I can take this season.

Where do you even start with this one? Adam KennedyAdam Kennedy! – had a four-hit night. James Loney had three. Of the 16 times the starting lineup made it on base tonight, a full 13 came from the 5-8 group of Kennedy, Loney, A.J. Ellis, & Tony Gwynn. On the mound, Ted Lilly isn’t charged with a single earned run despite allowing a mammoth Matt Holliday blast which still probably hasn’t landed. (That’s a story unto itself, but suffice to say, remember this, fans of ERA).

Oh, but there’s more. Josh Lindblom & Kenley Jansen combined to get the final six outs via strikeout – with Lindblom especially impressing by striking out Rafael Furcal, Holliday, and David Freese around a single and a walk – except that in the process, Jansen allowed pinch-hitter Lance Berkman to tie the game with a solo home run, which is almost certainly going to re-ignite the closer argument none of us want to have. (Jansen got the win though. Wins are great.)

And then there’s A.J. Ellis. Good lord, there’s always A.J Ellis. In the ninth against Fernando Salas, the Dodgers put men on the corners after an Elian Herrera walk and Kennedy’s fourth (!) hit of the night. Andre Ethier struck out, and the Cardinals chose to put Loney on intentionally to face Ellis, who had already driven in Loney with a single earlier in the game. They chose… let’s say, poorly. Not against Ellis, not this year, not when he’s on his way to Kansas City. Ellis watched ball four go by, and the Dodgers, improbably, incredibly, unbelievably, take the first game of a big series against St. Louis.

The Dodgers may not have escaped with merely a victory, however. In the top of the seventh, Shane Robinson bounced into a fielder’s choice at short, which Dee Gordon flipped to Mark Ellis in hopes of turning a double play. Tyler Greene, running from first, took out Ellis with a hard (but clean) slide, flipping Ellis and looking for all the world like his left knee had buckled. Ellis shook it off and stayed in to finish the inning and line to first in the bottom of the frame, but was replaced by Justin Sellers in the field for the eighth. Any speculation on Ellis’ status is premature, but it should be noted that with all of the other injuries, the only healthy infielder on the 40-man roster is Ivan De Jesus, who the club seems determined not to play.

Clayton Kershaw takes the hill tomorrow against Jake Westbrook, and at this point absolutely nothing would surprise me. Well, other than Gordon showing signs of life, that is, now that his 0-5 put him down exactly to the Mendoza line. A conversation for another time, though, because tonight belongs to Adam Kennedy and A.J. Ellis. I’ll take “things I never, ever, ever expected to write ever” for $600, Alex.

Older Players Find a Rest Home With the Dodgers

You’ve always thought Ned Colletti had an unnatural predilection for older players, right? Whether it’s been trying to stick Luis Gonzalez in front of Andre Ethier or Garret Anderson in front of absolutely anyone who wasn’t Garret Anderson, the Dodgers in the Colletti era (2006-11) have always been seen as choosing experience over talent, even when the experienced player is well past their sell-by date. We’ve always joked about it, but we’ve never had a really great way to confirm it.

Until now, that is. Today, FanGraphs (who, in the interest of full disclosure, I’ve recently begun writing for) has unveiled “age filtering” on their leaderboards, which can show you all kinds of fun things. (Examples they give include seeing all qualified batters in their age 18-24 seasons since 2005 and seeing which teams have benefited the most from pitchers age 30 and up since 2000.)

Well, if we have that kind of information at our fingertips, how could I not go see how much playing time has been handed over to the elderly since Colletti arrived 2006? Let’s start with hitters, throw all the proper inputs into the blender, and we’ll come out with…

2006-2011, Most PA by Players 35+
1. 8587 Giants
2. 8580 Dodgers
3. 8098 Yankees

…and, of course they are. But okay, in and of itself having older players isn’t necessarily bad. Barry Bonds stayed productive for the Giants well into his 30s, and the Yankees are always carrying expensive, older superstars into the playoffs. Manny Ramirez was no spring chicken when he arrived in LA, and it can’t have been all Mark Sweeney and Juan Castro and Mark Loretta since, right?

2006-2011, wOBA of Players 35+
10t. .328 Reds
10t. .328 Rays
12t. .327 Dodgers

Not awful, if likely Manny-fueled. However, also likely fueled by Manny is the defensive performance of this group of players…

2006-11, Fielding Runs of Players 35+
28. -41.0 Red Sox
29. -62.9 Yankees
30. -66.0 Dodgers

Yikes. (While we’re here, I can’t help but share the numbers for +WPA and -WPA. They aren’t great stats for evaluating long-term performance, because they’re so dependent on the context of an individual game, but over this span this group of Dodgers provided a Win Percentage Added of 0.02… and a -WPA of 147.37. That’s just fantastic.)

Okay, how about the pitchers?

2006-2011, Most IP by Pitchers 35+
1. 2496.1 Yankees
2. 2038.1 Mets
3. 1904.0 Red Sox
4. 1766.2 Braves
5. 1678.1 Dodgers

Top five, again. And as to their performance…

2006-2011, FIP by Pitchers 35+
1. Braves 3.70
2. Cardinals 3.78
3. Yankees 3.79
4t. Marlins 3.86
4t. Dodgers 3.86

This actually comes out pretty well, mostly considering that Derek Lowe, Hiroki Kuroda (2), and Ted Lilly each had solid seasons of 190 innings or more after turning 35 – plus several excellent Takashi Saito years in relief. The most amazing thing about this is that they’ve managed to commit so much time to older players despite having such an impressive pipeline of young prospects coming up in this time, guys like Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw, Russell Martin, Jonathan Broxton, Andre Ethier, James Loney, Chad Billingsley, etc. It’s like they’ll only play guys who are under 27 or over 35.

Still, I’ll have to admit the results of this didn’t come out exactly as I thought they would. The Dodgers under Colletti have actually done a decent job out of getting production from the higher-tier older players like Manny, Lowe, Kuroda, Lilly and a year or two each out of Jeff Kent, Jamey Carroll, and Casey Blake. That’s great, and credit is due there. If anything, the problem is in choosing poorly on the mid- to lower-range guys and then either delaying in or outright refusing to cut the cord when it’s clear that the veteran is absolutely cooked. That’d be Anderson in 2010, Brad Ausmus in 2009-10, Loretta in 2009, Sweeney in 2008, Olmedo Saenz in 2007, any mention of the Flying Ortizii Brothers, etc.

Of course considering this doesn’t include 2012 – you know, low-upside guys like Matt Treanor, Jerry Hairston, Mark Ellis, Adam Kennedy etc. – the trend isn’t likely to turn this year. Or next year either, since they’re mostly all signed to two-year deals.

The Dodgers May Need to Rework That Bench Group

Similar to the pitching staff, we’ve long known the identity of the bench to start the season, save for a tepid battle for the final spot. Matt Treanor will be the backup catcher, Adam Kennedy will see time at three of the four infield positions, Tony Gwynn is your main backup outfielder, and Jerry Hairston will play all over. That last spot is probably going to go to Jerry Sands, but there’s some possibility that he’ll start the year in the minors with Justin Sellers, Josh Fields, or someone else sneaking in the door. (It won’t, we can all agree, be a 13th pitcher.)

We haven’t exactly been thrilled with that prospect so far, because despite Gwynn’s excellent glove and Hairston’s positional flexibility, it’s a bench that offers little in the way of offensive punch – especially if Sands doesn’t make the club. Remember how the game always seemed to find Dioner Navarro in the bottom of the 9th last year? If you thought that was fun, just wait until we’re watching Treanor & Kennedy meekly ending games in big spots.

Lackluster though that may seem, it’s how the roster has been set up, so we haven’t really spent a whole lot of time discussing it, other than whether Sands would really hold on to that final spot. Steve Dilbeck writes today that Sands hasn’t been impressive so far, and while it’s early, it’s true. But whether or not Sands should make the team or not isn’t the most immediate issue; it’s the apparent lack of depth the Dodgers are facing at shortstop.

You see, Hairston made two errors playing shortstop today, as the Dodgers fell to Colorado 6-2. Now, I hardly need to remind you of the usual caveats about how one game – or even one week – in spring training usually doesn’t mean that much, and that’s still true. But with Juan Uribe expected to play third base exclusively, that leaves only Hairston, a soon-to-be 36-year-old who played in exactly one game at shortstop last year, for depth. While Dee Gordon (who made an error of his own today) is expected to play every day, questions about his durability remain, so it’s pretty easy to make the case that Sellers should make the club and Sands should head to ABQ, especially with the possibility that Scott Van Slyke & Alex Castellanos could be shifting around down there, as Christopher Jackson writes today.

Maybe it really is that simple, to keep Sellers & let Sands mash for a while in Triple-A. It probably will be. But that doesn’t mean it should be, because that would create something of a ripple effect. If you keep Sellers, he immediately becomes your top backup at shortstop and a more than capable defender behind Mark Ellis at second. Hairston becomes your primary backup at third base behind Uribe, where he played nearly everyday for Milwaukee last year, is a third option at second base, and can help Gwynn spot for Juan Rivera and Andre Ethier in the corners.

Considering that Rivera can shift to first on the few days that James Loney will get off, your defensive flexibility is pretty much spoken for, and the last spot should really be about offense. Maybe that’s Sands. Maybe that’s Fields, who has been impressive early in camp, and at least has a history of crushing Triple-A pitching aside from the 23 homers he put up for the White Sox in 2007. But really, it makes me wonder yet again, what exactly is Adam Kennedy‘s role here? It’s not for his bat, as I detailed in this ridiculous timeline that I’m all too eager to break out yet again:

Feb. 5, 2010: Coming off a decent 2009 with Oakland, signs a $1.25m guaranteed contract for 2010 with Washington.

2010: Hits just .249/.327/.327 for Washington, one of the worst years of his career.

Nov. 3, 2010: Nationals decline Kennedy’s $2m 2011 option.

Jan. 10, 2011: Mariners sign Kennedy to a minor-league deal with an invite to spring training; he makes the roster when the Mariners decide Dustin Ackley needs more seasoning.

Jan 27, 2011: Arrested in Newport Beach for suspicion of DUI.

2011: Hits .234/.277/.355 for Seattle, a wOBA 25 points lower than his underwhelming 2010.

Nov. 30, 2011: After not being able to find a guaranteed contract in 2011 and having a horrible season… receives a guaranteed deal from the Dodgers.

It’s not for his glove, because as outlined in the scenario above, second and third base would be more than covered without him. I imagine the argument would be “because he’s lefty”, but who cares what side a guy swings from when he can’t hit at all? I’d much rather take my chances with Fields (or Sands, or Trent Oeltjen, or whomever) along with Sellers while simultaneously improving the defensive depth and offensive potential. Now I know that Kennedy has a guaranteed contract, so this scenario is never going to happen. Still, what’s more important – the $850k already wasted on him, or building the best bench you can?

******

Ownership update, from Mike Ozanian of Forbes: Alan Casden is out, and Magic Johnson’s group has the current high bid at $1.6b. While that’s the highest bid thus far, it’s not that simple for two reasons. First, Steven Cohen’s bid, while only $1.4b, apparently has the highest percentage of straight cash involved, and the bidders have until Friday to rework their bids and submit final numbers. Expect the numbers to increase; sadly, all of the bids include provisions to lease the parking lots from Frank McCourt.

By the way: I’m not at all convinced this is going to go as smoothly as we hope. From Bill Shaikin’s piece on Casden:

McCourt has told people familiar with the sale process that he might introduce new bidders in the coming week. MLB has completed an expedited investigation of the current bidders and would probably ask the mediator to reject any new bidders at this late date, the people said.

McCourt has the ability to appeal any perceived wrongdoing on MLB’s part to a court-appointed mediator. Since when he has passed up the opportunity to litigate?

Update: Per Shaikin, MLB has also cut the Gold/Disney group and the Barrack/Hindery group. That makes your final four bidders Magic/Kasten, Cohen, Kroenke… and the Heisley/Ressler group, which I suppose we’re going to have to start paying more attention to.

******

Big week for Dodger literature, it seems. A few days ago we learned about a new Dodger coffee table book, “Dodgers: From Coast to Coast”, and now Paul Haddad is publishing “A Fan’s History of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Glory Years (1977-1981)”. The book contains transcripts of classic calls from Vin Scully, Jerry Doggett, and Ross Porter – sounds like it’s worth checking out.

Small Needs to Fill At the Winter Meetings

While the rest of the baseball world heads to the winter meetings and focuses on C.J. Wilson, Jose Reyes, and Prince Fielder, everyone expects that the Dodgers are finished. Foolishly or not, they’ve spent their money on Juan Rivera, Mark Ellis, Matt Treanor, Adam Kennedy, and Chris Capuano, and with the payroll all but exhausted and Hiroki Kuroda looking elsewhere, public opinion is largely that Ned Colletti shouldn’t even spend his time going to Dallas because the Dodgers are done.

Still, it is the winter meetings, which means that rumors always fly – remember, last year I did basically a four-day live blog as the Dodgers were connected to tons of rumors and came away with Vicente Padilla and Tony Gwynn – and they do still have a few needs. Barring a completely unexpected trade, here’s the three items to keep an eye out for.

5th starter. With Capuano in the mix, the first four starters are set, and at the moment, Nathan Eovaldi is the 5th starter. Eovaldi showed promise in a few starts with the big club last year, but didn’t prove to me that he’s ready for a full-time gig without more seasoning. To be honest, I’m guessing that Colletti feels the same. Remember 2010, when the season started with a questionable fifth starter in Charlie Haeger behind a relatively solid front four? Haeger flamed out early and Vicente Padilla got hurt, and that’s how you ended up with 33 starts from John Ely, Carlos Monasterios, and Ramon Ortiz. Colletti recognized that misstep and attempted to overcompensate in 2011 by having six starters, bringing back Padilla and adding Jon Garland. It didn’t work out, since each got hurt (as did Rubby De La Rosa), but the intent was good, and I’m guessing that Colletti won’t want to start 2012 counting on the uncertain Eovaldi without much behind him. But who? Buster Olney suggests that Aaron Harang could still be in play, though I find it hard to see him fitting into the Dodger salary structure after declining his $5m mutual option with the Padres. This is where I’m thinking we’ll see the bulk of the rumors this week.

Backup infielder. Despite importing Kennedy, Colletti doesn’t appear to be satisfied with Justin Sellers to join him on the bench, as Tony Jackson notes:

Colletti also wants another utility player; veterans Jerry Hairston and Jack Wilson are high on the list, as is incumbent Aaron Miles.

Kennedy seems to satisfy the “veteran lefty who can’t hit or play shortstop” role that Miles had, so I doubt he’d really be in play. You never got to see the infield post I had ready to go just before Kennedy was signed, but you probably don’t need to in order to guess that I think Wilson is a completely useless piece. Hairston is more attractive than I’d initially thought, though that just might price him out of the Dodgers’ budget.

One final thing on Kennedy, and I swear I’ll drop it for a while after this: a quick timeline of his last two years.

Feb. 5, 2010: Coming off a decent 2009 with Oakland, signs a $1.25m guaranteed contract for 2010 with Washington.

2010: Hits just .249/.327/.327 for Washington, one of the worst years of his career.

Nov. 3, 2010: Nationals decline Kennedy’s $2m 2011 option.

Jan. 10, 2011: Mariners sign Kennedy to a minor-league deal with an invite to spring training; he makes the roster when the Mariners decide Dustin Ackley needs more seasoning.

Jan 27, 2011: Arrested in Newport Beach for suspicion of DUI.

2011: Hits .234/.277/.355 for Seattle, a wOBA 25 points lower than his underwhelming 2010.

Nov. 30, 2011: After not being able to find a guaranteed contract in 2011 and having a horrible season… receives a guaranteed deal from the Dodgers.

Nothing wrong with that scenario, right?

Veteran reliever. Colletti’s mentioned he’d like to add a veteran reliever, though as the Jackson piece notes, it’s not a top priority. While this immediately rings Matt Guerrier warning bells for most of us, I’m guessing it probably shouldn’t. There’s just not payroll for that kind of expenditure (one small benefit of the ownership mess, I suppose), and while my position against large contract for fungible bullpen arms is well-known, that doesn’t mean the bullpen has to be 100% young, homegrown players. If a well-traveled arm comes in on a low or non-guaranteed contract, that’s fine. This is probably the area least likely to get touched this week.

With Kennedy added, the 40-man roster is full, though that’s not really an issue. Trent Oeltjen, Jamie Hoffmann, and Ramon Troncoso could all be easily dropped, and Hong-Chih Kuo is an all-but-certain non-tender next week, with Dana Eveland likely to get non-tendered as well.

Dodgers Come to Terms With Adam Kennedy


As we learned yesterday, the Dodgers were close to an agreement with Adam Kennedy, and now we know the details: once he passes his physical, he’ll be signed to a one-year deal worth $800k.

Frankly, I was terrified that he’d be getting a guaranteed contract into the millions, so this is a bit more palatable, given that 800k is barely above the veteran minimum. That means it’s a relatively low-cost investment that hardly ranks above a non-roster invite, and one that should hopefully make it easy to part ways with him if and when he proves to be cooked - though it still doesn’t answer the question of why he rates a guaranteed contract in the first place. You’d think that a decent-glove, dead-fish-bat utility infielder could be had for nothing more than a plane ticket to camp – see Aaron Miles, 2011 – but then again, creamy veteran goodness like this isn’t easy to find. (Disclaimer: it is extremely easy to find.)

As the wonderfully-named “The Dude Abides” noted in the comments yesterday, if you’re going to get a lefty-swinging infield bat who can sort of play a few positions, Wilson Betemit would have been a far better choice. No, he’s not Kennedy’s equal with the glove, but the Mark Ellis / Juan Uribe infield is full of solid defenders who may not be able to hit. Add Betemit for his offense, carry Justin Sellers for his defense, and call it a day.

Anyway, once this is finalized, it all but finishes off the offseason shopping on offense, leaving us with a presumed Opening Day crew of…

C A.J. Ellis
C Matt Treanor
1B James Loney
2B Mark Ellis
SS Dee Gordon
3B Juan Uribe
IF Adam Kennedy
IF Justin Sellers*
LF Juan Rivera
CF Matt Kemp
RF Andre Ethier
OF Jerry Sands*
OF Tony Gwynn**

Sellers & Sands are marked because they’re young players who aren’t totally guaranteed to break camp with the club, and Gwynn hasn’t officially been tendered a contract yet, though most assume it’s a given that he will be.