Chin-Lung Hu « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness

Dodgers Finally Say Goodbye to Chin-Lung Hu

December 27, 2010 at 2:41 pm | Posted in Chin-Lung Hu, Michael Antonini, Takashi Saito | 28 Comments

Finally, some news to break the holiday doldrums. According to the official Dodgers Twitter feed, Chin-lung Hu has been traded to the Mets for minor league lefty Michael Antonini.

This comes as no surprise, of course. Hu is out of options and had done little to force his way into a big-league roster spot, though it must be noted that the Dodgers often let useless veterans get chances before him. Between the need to open up a 40-man roster spot and the very small likelihood that Hu was making the big club, he was almost certainly going to be moved before the season started.

That being the case, you wouldn’t expect to get back much of a prospect, and Antonini, an 18th-round pick in 2007, isn’t great. He wasn’t even mentioned in Baseball Prospectus’ look at the Mets top 20 prospects last week, and while the Dodger tweet mentioned his “4.04 career ERA”, much of that was accumulated at the lower levels. In two brief tastes of AAA the last two seasons, he’s been lit up, allowing a 1.556 WHIP and 12.4 hits/9. I can’t find much scouting info on him, but considering he’s a lefty with good control (7.0 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 over his career), I’m guessing that means he’s a soft-tosser. Albuquerque will love him, and he’s basically a non-entity.

Still, as far as mediocre non-prospects go, you may prefer the lefty starter with good control over the slick-fielding shortstop who can’t hit, if you have a preference at all. Really, this is a low-impact trade, as trades come. The only worry here is that with Hu gone, and assuming that Ivan DeJesus does not make the team out of camp, is this another step in the direction of wasting a roster spot (not to mention oxygen) on one of the worst players in big league history, Juan Castro?

******

Totally unrelated, but the Brewers signed former Dodger Takashi Saito to a one-year deal for a base salary under $2m today. Saito will be 41 soon, and his arm is held together with jelly beans and masking tape. He also had a lower WHIP and more than double the K/9 rate that Matt Guerrier did last year. So tell me this, would you rather have given Saito ~$2m for 2011, or Guerrier $12m for 2011-13? Especially when ESPN’s Buster Olney spends half his column today talking about how three-year deals for relievers, especially non-elite ones, almost never work out?

Is The Fascination With Juan Castro Going to Cost the Dodgers Chin-Lung Hu?

December 12, 2010 at 12:21 pm | Posted in Bill Hall, Chin-Lung Hu, Juan Castro | 56 Comments

As you’ve probably heard, the Dodgers signed infielder Juan Castro to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training. Normally, this would be no big deal – like every team, the Dodgers hand out more than a dozen non-roster invites to veterans each year – but the association between Castro and the Dodgers has never been normal. This will be his 4th stint with the team since he originally arrived in 1991, and he’s managed to be on the team in each of the last two seasons despite signing a minor-league deal in 2009 and being cut by the Phillies in 2010. For whatever reason, the Dodgers have an infatuation with Castro that defies reason.

I say it defies reason because Castro may be the least valuable players in baseball. Now, I’m hardly breaking any major news by saying that he can’t hit, because everyone knows he can’t hit. He’s never come within sniffing distance of even a league-average OPS+ of 100, and he’s never actually even hit 90, and that’s what happens when you’ve never had a season where your OPS has topped .678. So Juan Castro is not a major-league quality hitter. We all knew that.

But what I was very surprised to find out is that Castro is one of the worst hitters in the entire history of baseball.

No, really.

Castro has somehow accumulated 2,834 plate appearances over his 16 big league seasons. 1,664 other players since 1901 can say they’ve had as many or more, lead of course by Babe Ruth’s superlative 206 OPS+. Castro, on the other hand, checks in with the 4th-lowest OPS+ of all time. Of all time!

Rk	Player	OPS+	PA	From	To	Age	G	H	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Bill Bergen	21	3228	1901	1911	23-33	947	516	.170	.194	.201	.395
2	Hal Lanier	49	3940	1964	1973	21-30	1196	843	.228	.255	.275	.529
3	Tommy Thevenow	51	4484	1924	1938	20-34	1229	1030	.247	.285	.294	.579
4	Juan Castro	55	2834	1995	2010	23-38	1096	597	.228	.268	.327	.595
5	Bobby Wine	55	3467	1960	1972	21-33	1164	682	.215	.264	.286	.550

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/12/2010.

This isn’t the first time we’ve talked about Bill Bergen, since he came up with Garret Anderson was making his assault on the worst offensive season in Dodger history last year. He’s still thought of as one of the better defensive catchers in history, but was of course abysmal at the plate in a career that ended before World War I. Lanier and Thevenow were middle infielders playing in eras that valued fielding from the shortstop position and thought of any offense as just a bonus.

And then there’s Castro. I think it goes without saying that with offensive performance so bad, there’s no amount of superior glovework that can make that okay. Still, if your fielding is that good, you can almost see how – in the right situation – a manager might make space at the back of the roster. I guess.

But that’s the problem here. Castro, 39 in June, is no longer the plus fielder he once was. Going by UZR/150, he’s far below average at 3B (-15.8), and while his career mark is still plus at SS (7.3), he’s living on his past since he’s not even come in as average there since 2007.

Which brings us back to Chin-lung Hu. He’s never managed to repeat his 2007 success, when he had an OPS of .871 between AA and AAA and looked to join the wave of top Dodger prospects headed to the big leagues. He flopped miserably in a 2008 trial with the big club, and he’s received just 31 MLB PA over the last two seasons. Despite that, his glove has consistently been looked upon as excellent – certainly above-average for a big league shortstop. At the plate, he’s not hopeless – he just finished his 3rd full season at AAA, and he’s improved in each year leading up to a .317/.339/.438 showing this year – but I don’t think any of us look at him as more than a starter on a second-division club or a backup on a better team.

While that’s hardly not what we expected from Hu back in 2007, it’s also not without value. That’s a plus glove, with the chance to be a bit below league-average at the plate, and the hope for more since he still doesn’t even turn 27 until February. But for the second year in a row – surely you remember the Dodgers choosing Nick Green over him last year, right? – rather than giving Hu a spot as a backup, they’ve brought in a clearly inferior veteran who offers no value to fight for the spot instead. While that was merely annoying last year, since Hu was headed back to ABQ and we all knew Green wouldn’t last, this year has the potential to be much more dangerous, since Hu is now out of options and must be kept or lost.

Sure, it’s possible none of this comes to pass. Perhaps they do sign Bill Hall (more on him in a second) to plug the LF hole and decide his infield experience means that they don’t need another dedicated backup infielder alongside Jamey Carroll. Perhaps Ivan DeJesus, coming off a solid AFL stint, impresses in spring to the point where he claims the 2B job and Juan Uribe is pushed to 3B, with Casey Blake rounding out the bench. But the Dodgers didn’t sign Castro to be veteran depth at AAA; that never seems to happen with him (he’s played just 45 minor league games since 2001), and an Isotopes squad that may have DeJesus, Dee Gordon, and Justin Sellers up the middle next year doesn’t really have a need.

So tell me, would you prefer a plus glove with a mediocre bat who’s about to be 27? Or a mediocre glove with historically bad offense who’s about to be 39? Seems like a no-brainer to me, especially because some other team will claim Hu on waivers, but it’s hard to not see how this is going to turn out based on past history. Besides, Hu’s already lost this battle once before, because you may remember that Castro spent the entire 2009 season with the Dodgers, while Hu & Blake DeWitt languished in AAA, and out-of-options Delwyn Young was traded to Pittsburgh.

******

According to Tony Jackson, the candidates for the left field opening are down to four, two of whom are Hall and (sigh) Scott Podsednik. My guess is that Austin Kearns is one of the other two, as we heard rumors about that during the winter meetings, and I’d like to think that Lastings Milledge is the other, though that’s based on nothing but my own speculation. Perhaps Ryan Ludwick, who’s another name we’ve heard, but he doesn’t seem like a great fit because he has a definite reverse split – that is, despite being righty, he’s always been better against them than lefties. Doesn’t fit on this team.

I was asked on Twitter how I’d rank those four options if I had the choice:

Milledge, Hall, Kearns, not having a LF, folding the team, Podsednik

Yep.

MSTI’s 2010 in Review: Shortstop

October 25, 2010 at 11:58 am | Posted in Chin-Lung Hu, Jamey Carroll, Juan Castro, Rafael Furcal | 35 Comments

Rafael Furcal (B)
.300/.366/.460 .826 8hr 3.4 WAR

I have to be honest, when I first looked back on Furcal’s season, all I could think of at first was, “oh, shocker, he hurt his back again.” And that’s true; he’s proven he simply cannot be counted upon to stay healthy.

However, that’s shortchanging him a bit, because when he was able to stay on the field, he put together one of the finest seasons of his career. Really, you can break his season down into three two-month slices.

In April and May, Furcal started just 24 games, missing most of May with a strained hamstring. His .308/.359/.402 (.761) was quite good even then, yet it hardly compared to his June and July (and two games in August). Furcal played his way onto the All-Star team by destroying opposing pitching with a .320/.391/.540 (.931) line, and all eight of his homers, though he did miss a week while mourning the passing of his father. He was so good, in fact, that in July I ran the numbers and said he was the best shortstop in Los Angeles Dodger history, slathering him with praise:

Last night, Furcal chipped in three more hits, including the go-ahead home run, saving the Dodgers from blowing yet another outstanding Clayton Kershaw start. I mean, choose whatever metrics you want; they’re all ridiculous. He’s got four homers in the last eight games, a stretch in which his OPS is 1.325. Over his last 31 starts (which span more than a month because of the time missed tending to his father) he’s only hitting an absurd .382/.422/.625. Here’s my favorite stat, though: in those 31 starts, he’s gone hitless just 7 times, but he’s had multiple hit games 17 times. Even his defense, which is hard to quantify but especially so over less than half a season, seems to have new energy; I noted on Twitter recently that I think I’ve seen him make more phenomenal plays this year than I have in the previous four years combined.

So it should come as no surprise that all of the leading stats paint him as the most valuable shortstop in baseball. FanGraphs shows him leading MLB SS in WAR, at 3.2 (and no complaining that Troy Tulowitzki has missed time, because with Furcal’s DL stint he’s actually still seven games behind Tulo), while Baseball Prospectus has him destroying the field in MLVr (Marginal Lineup Value rate, which I used instead of VORP because his missed time hurts him there). His position as top dog at his position this year is nearly indisputable.

Of course, it was too good to be true, because his August and September were disastrous, which you could of course say about any number of Dodgers. He played just two games in August before his back sent him to the DL again; when he returned in September he was hardly the same, hitting .237/.310/.329 (.639).

I’ve seen some calls to move him this offseason, but he’s making $12m next year, so that’s just not an option. All you can do is pray that he’s somewhat healthy, but not too healthy; his 2012 $12m club option becomes guaranteed with 600 PA next year.

Jamey Carroll (A)
.291/.379/.339 .718 0hr 2.7 WAR

Carroll’s been proclaimed the unofficial 2010 MVP of the Dodgers by a variety of outlets and experts, and while you can argue that, it says a lot about this year’s edition of the club that a 36-year-old backup infielder who didn’t hit even one homer would even be in the conversation.

That’s not a slight against Carroll, of course, who had what was essentially a career year while getting far more playing time at shortstop in the wake of Furcal’s injury than ever anticipated. When he was signed, I didn’t mind him as a backup infielder, though at the time I wasn’t thrilled with the second guaranteed year. I felt that Felipe Lopez was a better fit (remember, Lopez was coming off of a great 2009), especially when Lopez signed for barely a third of what Carroll got, which made the Carroll deal look so bad that it made its way onto MLBtraderumors’ list of “worst offseason deals”.

Still, that’s more a concern about management than it is about Carroll himself – he far outplayed any expectations we may have had of him. In fact by August I was wondering why Carroll wasn’t hitting higher in the lineup to take advantage of his high OBP:

I’ve said this before, and I’ll keep saying it: there is no rational reason that Ryan Theriot should be hitting higher in the lineup than Jamey Carroll. Carroll gets on base more often, and even hits for a bit more power. I said it before last night’s game, and look what happened: Carroll got on twice, Theriot just once. There’s no question that this offense needs a shake-up; isn’t this an easy and obvious way to do it?

That never really happened, of course, but the unexpected ability of Carroll to get on base and adequately play shortstop (that’s “adequate” in the sense that he caught what was hit to him, despite showing very little range) helped the Dodgers avoid a “2008 Angel Berroa” level disaster at the position. Really, Carroll will be a good barometer of how successful the 2011 Dodgers are. If he’s a nice bench piece, that’s good news. If he’s getting serious playing time again, then things haven’t really gone in the right direction.

Chin-lung Hu (inc.)
.130/.160/.174 .334 0hr -0.2 WAR

Hu made his yearly cameo for the 4th season in a row, but it’s kind of an understatement to say that his career has largely stalled out. At 26, he had just 25 plate appearances in the bigs, less than he had in 2007 or 2008.

Really, it was that 2008 season that seemingly sealed his fate, because coming off a big season in the minors in 2007 (.325/.364/.507) he flopped badly in his big chance to replace the injured Furcal in 2008 (.181/.252/.233 in 121 PA).

Still, even if he was never going to be as good as that 2007 promised he could be, I think he’s still been slightly underrated, in the sense that he at least deserves chances ahead of retreads like Nick Green. There’s never been any question about his glove, and he’d had a pretty decent line of .317/.339/.438 in 223 AAA plate appearances this season, before undergoing surgery on an injured left thumb. He can still be a starter on a second-division club, or a backup on a better one, but since he’s out of options that chance will likely come with another organization next season.

Juan Castro (inc.)
.000/.250/.000 .250 0hr 0.0 WAR

Castro played just one game in his third (and pray to whatever deity you choose that it’s also his final) stint with the Dodgers, so what am I really going to say about him? Really, the highlight of my coverage of Castro this season was while he was still playing with the Phillies, as I was praising Furcal in July. I noted that Furcal’s 2010 was the best season a Dodger shortstop had ever had to that point, and presented a list of the top ten entries. Right after the list, I said…

(Dead last? Juan Castro‘s atrociously amazing .199/.245/.255 campaign in 1998.)

Yeah, that sounds about right. In parts of seven seasons with the Dodgers (1995-99, 2009, 2010), Castro put up a total line of .205/.258/.271. That’s a 43 OPS+. Good lord.

******

Next! Casey Blake turns into a pumpkin! Russ Mitchell tries to make his mark! It’s third base!

The MSTI 2011 Plan, Part 2: Pitching

October 12, 2010 at 10:13 am | Posted in Chin-Lung Hu, George Sherrill, John Ely, Jon Link, Jonathan Broxton, Justin Duchscherer, Kenshin Kawakami, Pedro Baez, Ronald Belisario, Tom Gorzelanny, Vicente Padilla | 105 Comments

Lots of good comments on the Offense post yesterday – thanks. Of course, you can’t have a team without a pitching staff, and today we try to do some reconstructive surgery on the arms. I’ll be honest up front and say that it’s not going to be pretty. Filling three rotation spots isn’t easy even when you do have a ton of free cash, and the available starters are less than awe-inspiring. Other than Cliff Lee, the jewel of the market who’s never coming to the Dodgers, the best free agent starter is… Carl Pavano? Jorge de la Rosa? Ted Lilly, maybe? It’s not a great group, and the always-large demand plus that lack of supply means that some team is going to get silly and give those guys 3-4 years at big dollars. This is the one time that the payroll restrictions are actually a good thing, because Ned Colletti likely won’t have the chance to go out and be the one to make that mistake.

That said, you still have to put together a staff, and here’s one man’s crack at it.

1) Sign Clayton Kershaw to a 5 year, $30m contract…

…if you can even still get him that cheaply. I’d go into this in greater detail, except I already did just that in August. Basically, based on recent deals signed by comparable pitchers like Ricky Romero, Yovani Gallardo, and Jon Lester, this is about the going rate for a quality young starter with a pre-arbitration year left.

Sure, you could wait another year. You could enjoy the fact that he’s making just $500k or so in 2011, but that’s only going to cost you more down the road. He’s increased his WAR in each of his three years in the bigs, at the same time as he’s decreased his WHIP and K/BB. What happens when next year is the year he truly blows up? The cost is going to get astronomical. Better to do it now.

Fortunately, deals like these are rarely paid out evenly over the length of the contract, so we don’t have to worry about fitting in $6m into the 2011 budget. Doubling his 2011 salary ought to be enough to start, and the dollars increase over the remainder.

This is probably my highest priority of any move this entire winter.
$72.5m + $1m = $73.5m

2) Offer Ted Lilly arbitration, expecting he’ll decline.

As detailed here, I think it’s more likely that Lilly would decline rather than accept. If he does accept, you can make it work, of course. For this exercise, we’re assuming he signs a Randy Wolf-like three-year deal elsewhere.
$73.5m+ $0m = $73.5m (plus two draft picks)

3) Don’t offer Hiroki Kuroda arbitration, fearing he’ll accept.

As detailed here. I love Kuroda, and he could command a big free-agent contract, but the danger that he’ll want to commit to only one more year of American baseball and end up with a $16m+ arbitration judgement is far too risky, especially for an older pitcher with an injury history.
$73.5m+ $0m = $73.5m

4) Deal with the arbitration cases of Chad Billingsley and Hong-Chih Kuo.

Guessing arbitration prizes can be notoriously difficult, so I’ll go with Eric Stephen’s predictions on the TBLA payroll sheet for Chad Billingsley & Hong-Chih Kuo, which are $5.5m and $2.5m, respectively. I’d just as soon sign Billingsley to a long-term deal as well, but it’s probably pushing our luck to think that even Kershaw would get signed this winter, much less both.

As for the others… say “smell you later” for the moment to George Sherrill , Jeff Weaver and Vicente Padilla.
$73.5m + $8m = $81.5m

5) Trade James Loney to the Cubs for Tom Gorzelanny.

Loney’s an interesting case, because I think he’s one of those guys where there’s a massive divide between what regular fans and media types think of him as opposed to the impression the hardcore stat types have. We of course know that Loney’s a decent enough MLB hitter, yet subpar among his first base peers, especially in a league stacked with Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Aubrey Huff, and Adam Dunn (and that’s only the NL!). Sure, the RBI totals are somewhat shiny, but he finished 19th among 24 qualified MLB 1B in WAR. That was fine when he was an 0-3 player making $500k; it’s becoming a lot less fine as he ascends the arbitration scale without making a lot of progress on the field.

That doesn’t mean he’s without value, of course. I think a lot of other people see a guy who’s only 26, has a sweet swing and a smooth glove, and nearly drove in 90 runs for the third year in a row. It’s not enough to get you an ace starter, but it should be enough to get you a decent enough pitcher – and it just so happens the Dodgers have rotation holes to fill.

Meanwhile, the Cubs need a first baseman with Derrek Lee in Atlanta and Xavier Nady headed to free agency. Though it didn’t work that way in 2010, Loney’s always been more successful away from Dodger Stadium – more than 140 points of OPS better, in fact, with a career line of .309/.362/.495. That’s a lot more like it, and I worried back in the 2010 Maple Street Press Annual that he might need a change of scenery. The Cubs have most of their rotation set with Carlos Zambrano, Carlos Silva, Randy Wells, and Ryan Dempster, and could probably manage to fill the #5 spot elsewhere in order to take a chance on Loney.

As for Gorzelanny, he’s a 28-year-old lefty who’s been a bit up-and-down, but has FIP of 3.91 and 3.92 the last two years, good for 2.1 WAR this year (you can safely ignore the 5.55 ERA from 2009). Joe Pawlikowski of FanGraphs was pretty high on Gorzelanny back in July:

In fact, Gorzelanny has enough going for him that he can be expected to continue pitching well. I’m not even sure exactly why Pittsburgh, a team desperate for pitching, traded him in the first place. He was quite excellent in the high minors prior to his full-time MLB promotion, and even when the Pirates demoted him in 2008 and 2009 he pitched very well in the minors.

Like Perez, Gorzelanny’s resurgence could be a temporary thing. His control still isn’t where it needs to be, and that will be an important component of his game going forward. Yet Gorzelanny’s peripherals, both in the minors and the majors, make him look like a better case for permanent recovery. The Cubs, to their benefit, have three more years of team control, so they’ll get a long look at what Gorzelanny can do in the long run. Considering the state of the Pirates’ pitching, I’m sure Hungtington would love to get backsies on this one.

Gorzelanny’s probably not much more than a 4th starter, but he’s also going to make just about $1m next year in his first year of arbitration. Besides, Loney would probably make between $4-5m in arbitration, so moving that means you’re only paying an extra $3m or so for Dunn, assuming you backload his contract a bit.

I also considered trying to move Loney to Tampa for Matt Garza here, but the Rays are in serious cost-cutting mode and don’t seem like the type to pay $4-5m to a player like Loney who doesn’t get much love from the statistical community.

(Note: I’ve had this part written for nearly three weeks. I only just now realized that a few people in the TBLA comments suggested this deal as well on Friday, and then more than one person did so in my own comments yesterday. Great minds, right?)
$81.5m + $1m = $82.5m

6) Sign Vicente Padilla to a one year, $4m deal.

What a bizarre year for Padilla. After coming off the offseason shooting incident, he got a totally unexpected Opening Day start, which he turned into an underwhelming April and then nearly two months on the DL with a forearm injury. Yet when he came back, he was sublime, going eight consecutive starts without allowing more than two earned runs – before missing the last month with a bulging disc in his neck.

Padilla made $5.025m in 2010, and his summer stretch had him positioned for a possible multi-year deal. But the multiple injuries and his well-documented personal issues combine to make that unlikely, and he seems to have found a home in LA. You’re taking a risk on his health, but when he is healthy he’s quite good – and that’s worth the $4m to me.

Besides, I want another season of Vin Scully saying “soap bubble”.
$82.5m + $4m = $86.5m

7) Don’t rely on John Ely to be your 5th starter.

I was one of the few who supported Ely even after his season headed south, because the bar for 5th starters is so low. He had a FIP of 4.38; from a 5th starter, that’s fine with me.

The problem here is that teams almost never use only five starters, due to injury and poor performance. The Dodgers this year used ten starters, from Clayton Kershaw‘s 32 to James McDonald‘s 1. If Ely is your 6th or 7th best option, then you can still be reasonably confident that he’ll get a few shots to prove himself next year, but you won’t be totally dependent on “good Ely” to appear instead of “bad Ely”. If you do rely on him to win the 5th spot, then as soon as someone gets injured or faltered, you’re already relying on someone who’s worse than Ely. And that’s not a good situation to be in.

Of course, if Ely’s not rounding out the rotation, someone else needs to, and we’re going to handle that when we…
$86.5m + $0 = $86.5m

8) Trade Chin-lung Hu to Atlanta for Kenshin Kawakami.

In a vacuum, I’d prefer Hu to Kawakami. However, Hu’s out of options headed into 2011, and there’s no room for him on my Opening Day roster, so I need to turn him into something, and Kawakami’s my ultimate buy-low idea this winter. Just look at his stat line for the last two seasons..

2009: 6.04 K/9, 3.28 BB/9, 4.21 FIP, 4.61 xFIP
2010: 6.08 K/9, 3.30 BB/9, 4.35 FIP, 4.56 xFIP

Two basically identical seasons, right? Sure, except that in 2009 he was 7-12 with a 3.86 ERA, getting him at least a mention in NL ROY articles… and in 2010 he was 1-10 with a 5.15 ERA, getting him banished to the bench as insurance, as he pitched only 3 times after June and badly damaging his relationship with the team. He was more hittable than in 2009 for sure, but this definitely looks like another case of far too much stock being put in a pitcher’s W-L record and ERA (in addition to the Braves having plenty of quality starting options). It seems impossible that he’ll be back in Atlanta, and the Braves could use another shortstop option with Yunel Escobar in Toronto and Alex Gonzalez headed to free agency, even if Hu isn’t the starter – and his slick-fielding may appeal to a team that just saw their defense implode in the NLDS.

As for Kawakami, I’m not pretending he’s anywhere near as good as Hiroki Kuroda, because he’s not. I just can’t help pointing out that they each spent their final season in Japan in the Central League, and Kawakami (2008: 1.06 WHIP, 8.59 K/9, 1.92 BB/9) outpitched Kuroda (2007: 1.21 WHIP, 6.16 K/9, 2.10 BB/9).

It clearly hasn’t worked out as well in America for Kawakami, but it seems like a gamble worth taking. Kawakami is due $6.67m in the final year of a three-year deal. We’re going to say that the Braves will eat much of it in order to save $2m and get Hu in exchange for a pitcher they have no use for.

If it works out, great, you get a decent 5th starter. If not, all it cost you was $2m and a backup infielder who wasn’t going to make the roster anyway.
$86.5m + $2m = $88.5m

_____________________________________

Now that the starting rotation is set, it’s time to look at the bullpen. I’m sure a lot of people would love to keep Kuo and Kenley Jansen and blow up the rest, but it’s just not realistic, either from a financial or a talent standpoint. In the same way that it was hard to imagine that Jonathan Broxton and Ronald Belisario and Ramon Troncoso and George Sherrill would all have blown up together in 2010, it’s hard to imagine that not a single one is going to recapture that 2009 magic in 2011.

That’s not to say that we need to bring back the exact same crew, of course, but spending big money on relievers isn’t an option with the Dodger payroll, nor is it a good idea even if you did have that money. Big dollar investments in non-closer relievers rarely ever work out, as the Boston Herald does a good job of displaying here.

Kuo and Jansen ($88.5m + $0.4m = $88.9m) are no-brainers, and in this age of the seven-man bullpen, we have five more spots to fill. Here’s how we’re going to do it.

9) One of five: Give Jonathan Broxton a chance to rebound.

Broxton’s second-half nosedive really killed my plans, because I wanted to trade him. I wouldn’t want to pay any closer $7m, and that money can be put to better use elsewhere. If Broxton had just made it through another three months performing like he had for the previous three years, he could have been a great trade chip to bring back a bat or a starting pitcher.

Of course, his implosion changes all that, and as I detailed last month, I don’t see much of a trade market for him. That doesn’t mean I wouldn’t do a deal if the right offer were made, just that I wouldn’t give him away for nothing. Don Mattingly claims that Broxton goes into 2011 as his closer, which I don’t totally agree with, but that’s obviously the best possible outcome. If he can come back from whatever took him down, then you get back a top closer, take pressure off Kuo and Jansen, and have a great piece to trade in July if the Dodgers are out of it. Really, I just want to extract the most value from Broxton, whether that’s on-the-field performance or return via trade, and moving him now isn’t the way to do that.

Besides, all the people you hear saying he’s “mentally weak” were saying the same thing about Chad Billingsley last winter, and you saw how well that worked out. If Broxton’s late-season disaster proved anything, it’s that the 9th inning wasn’t the source of his problems. Whether it was bad mechanics, overuse by Joe Torre (don’t forget that he was asked to throw 99 pitches in five days, and that’s where his troubles began), or an unknown injury (Josh Suchon on DodgerTalk claimed he saw Broxton’s ankle heavily taped after a late-season game), there’s a lot of viable reasons for his downfall. The hope is that a winter of rest can help him come back and regain that value, and giving him that chance – even if he’s not the closer initially – is the right move.
$88.9m + $7m = $95.9m

10) Two of five: Sign Justin Duchsherer to a one year, $1m deal.

Sure, he’s pitched in just five MLB games over the last two seasons due to injury, but what fun would this be without a lottery ticket? Unlike other “pie in the sky” guys like Brandon Webb, Ben Sheets, and Rich Harden, Duchscherer likely won’t require a big base salary, as he made just $1.75m with Oakland in 2010.

Duchscherer missed most of the last two years with injuries to each hip, but he’s proven that he can be effective if healthy. It’s of course the “if healthy” part which is a problem, and here’s how we make that work. Unless he comes into camp and blows everyone away, you make him your 6th-starter/bullpen ace. Before Oakland converted him into a starter in 2008, he was a bullpen weapon, appearing in 53, 65, and 53 games in 2004-06. We’ll do that again here, leaving the option of him being a spot starter available – basically, it’s the Jeff Weaver role.

The idea here is that if you can get 25 or so basically-average starts combined from Kawakami and Duchscherer, along with some bullpen value out of JD, that’s a great return on $3m.
$95.9m + $1m = $96.9m

11) Three of five: Accept that Ronald Belisario is going to have a spot next year.

I don’t want to gloss over Belisario’s extreme unreliability, but assuming nothing else happens, he’s basically assured of a spot. Why? Because his value is low enough that it’s not worth trading him, but since he’s out of options, you can’t send him to the minors and you’re not just going to cut him loose for nothing.

It’s also worth nothing that his 2010 wasn’t just a giant pile of suck, as many would have you believe. After his late arrival to camp, Belisario was reasonably decent through July: .608 OPS, only 2 HR allowed in 35 games. Then he disappeared for a month, and in August and September he fell apart: .856 OPS against, 4 HR allowed in 24 games (though to be fair, he gave up 9 ER in his first three games back and was much better after that).

We still don’t really know what happened to cause his month away from the team, but it’s not hard to infer that it was some sort of personal problem which took his focus away from baseball. That, plus the two long absences, could easily have thrown his timing and conditioning off. If he’s able to avoid such issues in 2011 – which, I admit, is far from certain – he’s my best choice for a rebound.

This assumes he can make it to camp on time, of course. Third time’s the charm?
$96.9m + $0.4m = $97.3m

12) Four of five: One spot goes to one of the up-and-down righty relievers we saw this year.

That’d be Ramon Troncoso, Jon Link, and Travis Schlichting. Hell, even toss Josh Lindblom in there. I imagine all four will see time in LA in 2011, and the first three have all had their moments. Whichever one breaks camp with the team is largely irrelevant, but you know at least one will. For the moment, I’ll say… Link.
$97.3m + $0.4m = $97.7m

13) Five of five: Insert veteran non-roster invite here.

It happens every year, so while I’d love to go out and sign Koji Uehara, Joaquin Benoit, Hisanori Takahashi or someone similar, we all know that this is going to be filled by your obligatory Jeff Weaver or Chan Ho Park-type. Perhaps literally Jeff Weaver or Chan Ho Park, which is fine, just as long as it’s no one named Ortiz.

I’ll actually propose something pretty unpopular, and that’s to bring George Sherrill back for the minimum after he gets non-tendered. I know the fans would revolt if that happened, and Sherrill might not want to come back himself, but it’s worth noting that even in his horrendous 2010, he was still dominant against left-handers: .192/.286/.288. It’s going to be hard to find anyone else who can do that, and Sherrill at least comes with the slight chance that he finds the performance he brought with him to LA. You really think Weaver or Park has that upside?
$97.7m + $0.8m = $98.5m

14) Just turn Pedro Baez into a pitcher already.

This doesn’t really impact the 2011 team, and I realize that every light-hitting, strong-armed minor league hitter isn’t going to be the next Kenley Jansen. I also realize that Baez has absolutely no hope of making the big leagues as a third baseman. He’ll be 23 next spring, yet had just a .306 OBP and 6 HR despite playing against kids 3-4 years younger in the Inland Empire launching pad. The one thing he does have going for him is a rocket for an arm. Why not take that 0% chance of him being a 3B and turn it into a 5% chance he makes it as a reliever? I’d be shocked if DeJon Watson hasn’t already begun those conversations already.
$98.5m + $0 = $98.5m

_____________________________________

Here’s your 2011 pitching staff:

SP L Clayton Kershaw
SP R Chad Billingsley
SP R Vicente Padilla
SP L Tom Gorzelanny
SP R Kenshin Kawakami

RP R Justin Duchscherer
RP R Jon Link
RP L George Sherrill / NRI
RP R Ronald Belisario
RP L Hong-Chih Kuo
RP R Kenley Jansen
RP R Jonathan Broxton

Then you have John Ely, Carlos Monasterios, Travis Schlichting, Ramon Troncoso, Josh Lindblom, Brent Leach, and a cast of thousands in reserve behind them.

Unlike the offense, where I think I was able to clearly improve it, I guess I can’t say the same about the pitching – though I do think it has more depth. It’s just important to remember that having Kuroda and Lilly in your rotation was never more than a short-term solution, because having them both for next year is totally unrealistic – unless your offense was full of rookies making the minimum. So while this rotation may not seem as good as the one that ended 2010 (and I don’t argue otherwise), you’re not working from that rotation. You’re working from one that has only Kershaw and Billingsley right now.

What you hope for here is that Kershaw continues his ascent, giving you a solid 1-2 with Billingsley. You pray that Broxton figures it out and that Kuo holds together for one more season, and you realize that what your team looks like in April is never what it looks like in July. If the team is in contention, adding a 3rd top pitcher could really do wonders.

Either way, I was able to do all of this for about $98.5m and cashing in Scott Elbert, Xavier Paul, James Loney, Russell Martin, and Chin-lung Hu, while adding two draft picks for Lilly. I won’t say this team is suddenly a World Series contender, but I do think the offense and pitching I’ve presented the last two days are definitely superior to the team we saw fall apart in 2010.

Rafael Furcal Heads to the Bereavement List

June 17, 2010 at 12:14 pm | Posted in Chin-Lung Hu, Nick Green, Rafael Furcal | 16 Comments

Per Dodger Thoughts, Rafael Furcal has been placed on the bereavement list to tend to an ill family member in the Dominican Republic. Obviously, some things are more important than baseball, so Furcal has to do what he has to do. But man, is the timing brutal, because Furcal has been on fire – hitting .309/.356./545 with 2 homers in June, plus several sparkling plays in the field. It’s not exactly what you need when you’re headed into Boston with a patchwork rotation lined up, and it also means Blake DeWitt is leading off today. Still, it’s only for a few days, so hopefully all works out as well as possible for Furcal and his family.

That’s not really what interests me here, though: it’s that Chin-Lung Hu was recalled rather than Nick Green, who’d made it through waivers (shocker!) when he was DFA’d and has since returned to Albuquerque. Obviously, this is a good thing, because Hu’s a solid fielder, and Green’s all but worthless.

However, we’ve been here before, when Furcal went on the DL with his strained hamstring, and remember that was wasn’t supposed to be out nearly as long as he was, and it was Green who came up. This was Torre’s rationale at the time…

“He just brings more experience,” Manager Joe Torre said. “Probably a little more of a utility guy right now.

“My plan is still Carroll at shortstop. We’re freer to play Greenie at third and second, as opposed to Hu, who really would be in the middle only. Plus the fact that Hu should probably play every day.”

It’s not like Furcal’s replacement figures to see much playing time.

If Furcal was expected to be down longer, the Dodgers might have called Hu up. Torre said they never seriously considered Gordon, who is at double-A Chattanooga and is now considered a brighter prospect than Hu.

“And we’re talking probably about a week, so it’s probably in the best interest of the young kid not to disrupt him,” Torre said.

So what’s different now? Now it’s okay to disrupt Hu? It can’t just be that Green had an opt-out clause previously, because it’s already been proven that no one wants him. Clearly, I’m not complaining – Hu is better – it’s just an interesting piece of decision-making, is all.

Update: Okay, I guess it’s because Green opted out of his contract and is a free agent. I’d seen that he went 0-4 on Monday, so this must have just happened in the last day or two. What an amazingly poor choice on his part. Hooray!!

It’s Like They Just Never Learn

May 4, 2010 at 9:32 am | Posted in Chin-Lung Hu, Nick Green, Rafael Furcal | 16 Comments

It’s not official yet, but Dylan Hernandez is reporting that Rafael Furcal will indeed be headed to the disabled list thanks to his strained left hamstring. This is disappointing, but not entirely unexpected. What’s far more disheartening is that Hernandez also claims that Nick Green will be called up from AAA to take his place, rather than Chin-Lung Hu.

Somehow, I’ve actually written about “Green vs. Hu” several times, initially when the first rumors about Green arriving came early last December:

If you don’t know much about Green, that’s because you shouldn’t. This is a guy who is 31 and has played for five teams in parts of five seasons, almost entirely as a backup. In 2009, he was pressed into service as Boston’s starting shortstop for nearly half the season thanks to a multitude of injuries, and responded with a pretty bad .236/.303/.366 line. That’s not even a case of a guy being exposed due to too much playing time; that mirrors exactly his career line of .239/.307/.352. Even in over 3000 PA appearances in the minors, his OBP is just .324. “Getting on base” is clearly not Nick Green’s strength, no matter where he plays.

“But hey,” you might say. “He’s a shortstop, so if he really can’t hit, he must be a whiz with the glove, right?” You’d say that, and you’d be wrong. For his entire career, he’s a whopping 0.6 fielding runs above average. That’s not horrible, but nor is it an asset.

So please, enlighten me. When you’re trying to come up with backup infielders, paying Nick Green more than you’d have to pay Chin-Lung Hu to be 5 years older, a far inferior fielder, and a likely inferior batter (Hu at least has a .342 OBP in the minors, and at his age still has time to improve) makes sense in what way exactly?

Then when he was actually signed in January and it sounded like he’d make the club, I was still not all that happy about it:

Now I will grant that it’s a minor-league deal, so the money is negligible and the commitment is zero. But Rosenthal paints it as though he will be the backup shortstop, without even mentioning the possibility of Hu. So someone please explain this math problem to me:

Hu is a better fielder than Green.

Hu is younger than Green.

Hu is healthier than Green.

Hu is likely at least as good of a hitter, if not better, than Green.

Hu has at least a slight chance of upside, while Green has none.

Therefore, Green > Hu. Of course it does.

So what’s changed since then? The correct answer is “well, it’s only a month into the season, so unless Green’s already put up 20 homers while Hu broke his leg, that’s not nearly enough time to be more important than the last several years of established history”. But we all know it doesn’t work like that, because if it did we wouldn’t have seen any Ortizii on this squad.

In spring training – and yes, I know that these stats don’t mean much, but don’t pretend they don’t often decide jobs – Hu had a line of .281/.324/.281. Obviously there’s no power there, so it’s not stellar… but it’s also streets ahead of Green’s .139/.324/.167. After camp broke, neither one has been hitting very well in the first month at ABQ - Hu at .227/.261/.242, and Green at .219/.242/.438.

So I can’t pretend that Hu is forcing his way back into the bigs, and it’s quite possible that he’ll never be an acceptable major league hitter. But that’s sort of it, isn’t it? Assuming that Furcal returns from the DL on May 14 when he’s eligible, you’re just looking for a shortstop fill-in/bench infielder for the next 10 games or so. You don’t need or expect any sort of offensive contribution; you just need someone who can play a better shortstop than Jamey Carroll. Now, there should be no question – none, to the point where I don’t even need to break out the stats to back it up - that Hu is a superior defender to Green. But not only that, he outhit him in the spring, and he’s got a better (if still pretty lousy) OBP so far in AAA.

Sometimes you wonder why this team is floundering… and sometimes you wonder if the list of poor decisions should be updated on a daily basis.

Death Match: Nick Green vs. Chin-Lung Hu

January 11, 2010 at 12:56 pm | Posted in Chin-Lung Hu, Nick Green | 18 Comments

Okay, maybe “death match” is a bit strong when you’re talking about a battle between a 30+ never-was and a light-hitting glovesman for a backup infield job, but still. According to this pair of tweets from Ken Rosenthal, the Dodgers have signed Nick Green…

Source: IF Nick Green signs minor-league deal with Dodgers. Coming off back surgery

Jamey Carroll not a SS. Green would be primary backup to Furcal. Slightly behind schedule due to surgery.

We first heard about interest in Nick Green over a month ago, and even though it was just a rumor, I responded anyway, since the Hot Stove has been lukewarm at best. I was, to put it mildly, not impressed:

If you don’t know much about Green, that’s because you shouldn’t. This is a guy who is 31 and has played for five teams in parts of five seasons, almost entirely as a backup. In 2009, he was pressed into service as Boston’s starting shortstop for nearly half the season thanks to a multitude of injuries, and responded with a pretty bad .236/.303/.366 line. That’s not even a case of a guy being exposed due to too much playing time; that mirrors exactly his career line of .239/.307/.352. Even in over 3000 PA appearances in the minors, his OBP is just .324. “Getting on base” is clearly not Nick Green’s strength, no matter where he plays.

“But hey,” you might say. “He’s a shortstop, so if he really can’t hit, he must be a whiz with the glove, right?” You’d say that, and you’d be wrong. For his entire career, he’s a whopping 0.6 fielding runs above average. That’s not horrible, but nor is it an asset.

So please, enlighten me. When you’re trying to come up with backup infielders, paying Nick Green more than you’d have to pay Chin-Lung Hu to be 5 years older, a far inferior fielder, and a likely inferior batter (Hu at least has a .342 OBP in the minors, and at his age still has time to improve) makes sense in what way exactly?

I usually don’t paste so much from old posts, but every thing I said there still rings true today. But you know what makes it even better? That’s three paragraphs about how Nick Green is a lousy ballplayer and a bad idea, and that was before I heard that he had back surgery this offseason. Back surgery, which he is behind schedule in recovering from.

Now I will grant that it’s a minor-league deal, so the money is negligible and the commitment is zero. But Rosenthal paints it as though he will be the backup shortstop, without even mentioning the possibility of Hu. So someone please explain this math problem to me:

Hu is a better fielder than Green.

Hu is younger than Green.

Hu is healthier than Green.

Hu is likely at least as good of a hitter, if not better, than Green.

Hu has at least a slight chance of upside, while Green has none.

Therefore, Green > Hu. Of course it does.

Nick Green Is Not the Answer

December 7, 2009 at 8:55 am | Posted in Chin-Lung Hu, Nick Green | 6 Comments

(Note #1: yes, I know these are just rumors. I don’t want to have to write that on every blog post. But what’s the point of having a blog dedicated to one team if I can’t comment on each little rumor that comes down?)

(Note #2: there’s going to be a ton of Dodger-related rumors coming out over the next few days as the winter meetings reign. I won’t be writing up ALL of them here, but they will all get mentioned on the MSTI Twitter. Follow today!

Unless the question is, “I’ll take over-30, poor-hitting, mediocre-fielding backup infielders for $800,000, Alex!” From the Twitter of Yahoo’s Tim Brown:

Dodgers met with agent for infielder Nick Green, exploring backup possibilities.

I hope that means they’re exploring possibilities for backup infielder, and not backup possibilities to not getting Nick Green, because I assume that would be some sort of amputee situation.

If you don’t know much about Green, that’s because you shouldn’t. This is a guy who is 31 and has played for five teams in parts of five seasons, almost entirely as a backup. In 2009, he was pressed into service as Boston’s starting shortstop for nearly half the season thanks to a multitude of injuries, and responded with a pretty bad .236/.303/.366 line. That’s not even a case of a guy being exposed due to too much playing time; that mirrors exactly his career line of .239/.307/.352. Even in over 3000 PA appearances in the minors, his OBP is just .324. “Getting on base” is clearly not Nick Green’s strength, no matter where he plays.

“But hey,” you might say. “He’s a shortstop, so if he really can’t hit, he must be a whiz with the glove, right?” You’d say that, and you’d be wrong. For his entire career, he’s a whopping 0.6 fielding runs above average. That’s not horrible, but nor is it an asset.

So please, enlighten me. When you’re trying to come up with backup infielders, paying Nick Green more than you’d have to pay Chin-Lung Hu to be 5 years older, a far inferior fielder, and a likely inferior batter (Hu at least has a .342 OBP in the minors, and at his age still has time to improve) makes sense in what way exactly?

MSTI’s 2009 In Review: Shortstop

November 1, 2009 at 4:11 pm | Posted in 2009 in review, Chin-Lung Hu, Juan Castro, Rafael Furcal | 2 Comments

Welcome to day 5 of MSTI’s 2009 Year In Review. Have a good Halloween? Good! So as you sit there with your coffee, trying to sober up after your heavy partying last night, pull up a chair and join us, as we tackle SS! Let us begin:

Rafael Furcal = C-
(.269/.335/.375 9hr 47rbi)

You know, Rafael Furcal has now completed his fourth year as a Dodger (already?!) and, even despite that, it still feels a bit difficult at times to truly evaluate his tenure when you look at his numbers. In 2006, he started off sub-par due to wrist and hand issues, only to finish the year as arguably the team’s MVP with a scorching second half. Then in 2007, he comes back with arguably the worst season of his career Then in 2008, he gets off to the best start of his career only to get sidelined for four months with more injuries.

Of course, he comes back in 2009 with one of his worst seasons (by the way, note the weird odd numbered year = bad year, even numbered year = good year?). And, let’s face it, for as much as we like Furcal here at MSTI (his interviews are always such a hoot!), 2009 was a forgettable year for Furcal. Comparing this season to his general career numbers (it wouldn’t be fair to compare them to his one insane month of 2008), we saw a decrease in pretty much all of the important numbers. His .335 OBP this year is lower compared to his career .350 OBP, while his .375 SLG% was lower than his career .408 SLG%. In terms of OPS+, it was a below average 88, while his actual OPS dropped from his career .758 to .711; his EqA of .259 was below his career .269.

Looking further than that, though, let’s compare him with his peers. Amongst the qualified NL SS’s, he ranks 6th out of 9 in BA and OBP, while ranking 8th out of 10 in SLG%, and ranking 7th in MLVr, with a number of -.012. Nonetheless, while Furcal performed poorly for most of the year, he did have a couple of great months, putting up a great July (.343/.395/.500) and really coming on strong at the end with a fantastic September (.330/.400/.491) and looking much more like the Furcal of old. But one thing that didn’t look like the Furcal of old is that he didn’t really steal many bases this year. This year, in his 150 games, we saw him attempt to steal only 18 bases, stealing 12 of them, though the decrease was more than likely an effect of being cautious after last year’s back injuries.

Defensively, Furcal, for the most part, was, well, Furcal and that’s a good thing. His .967 fielding percentage is pretty much par for the course and, while low, it’s generally come from throwing errors throughout his career, as his arm can make him the Rick Vaughn of shortstops at times. His Zone Rating was 5.786 which ranked him 6th amongst NL SS’s. The interesting thing to note with Furcal is that over the past two years, we’ve seen a decrease in his range factor. Through 2007, the worst number he ever had in this category was a 4.77, though since that period, he’s put up numbers of 4.20 and 4.25. Again, 2008 must be noted for being a very short season for Furcal, and, as always the case, defensive stats can be a bit murky, but it is interesting to note the trend continuing into 2009, however much value you want to put into that…

Still, his defense wasn’t something that I had complaints with this year. That was fine. The problem was at the plate and, unfortunately, Furcal put up a year that is to rank amongst his worst, hence the low grade, but the encouraging thing going into 2010 is that he did end the season on very much a high note and finally seemed to start regaining form and hopefully this is something we can see A LOT more of next year. Even if he can’t be the big stolen base threat he used to be, when he’s on as a hitter, he is a very valuable weapon to have, so we shall see what the future holds for him. I mean, it’s an even numbered year next year: he’s gotta do well!

Juan Castro = C-
(.277/.311/.339 1hr 9rbi)

When Colletti signed him earlier this year, it seemed more of just Ned needing more porn to satisfy his fetish of signing light hitting shortstops, but you know what? Even though I wasn’t thrilled with the signing, Castro didn’t embarrass himself this year, either. Well, at least if “this year” is April – July, anyways. During the first half of the season, Castro put up numbers of .357/.397/.437 with an .834 OPS! Really, Juan Castro putting up those numbers?! I mean, geez, what kind of stuff was he pulling out of Manny’s locker to do that?! A welcome surprise, indeed.

Alas, it all crashed and burned in the second half, where Castro went .146/.146/.171 and a .317 OPS to go with it, which is more of the real Castro than what we saw in the first half. Still, did I mention that, despite that second half, he still managed to finish with one of his very best OPS+ in his long and storied 15 year career?

Did I also mention that his career OPS+ is 52?!

Nonetheless, one great half with one awful one? Well, that’s about one more great (or even good) half I thought we’d get from him, and he did play decent defense more times than not, so a C- for you, Fidel.

Chin-Lung Hu = Inc.
(.400/.333/.600 0hr 2rbi)

Given that Chin-Lung Hu had six, yes, count them, SIX plate appearances, do you know how tempted I was just to type in “Hu?” and leave it at that?

Still, even in these six at-bats, Hu managed to get a couple of hits, but he played hardly enough to warrant a great. Though this year in Triple-A Albuquerque, Hu managed to have a slight improvement upon his 2008 year, hitting .294/.332/.393, with 6 HR’s and 53 RBI’s. Not much else to say about the Hu-ster in Dodger Blue in 2009… except, well…

(crickets chirp)

Hey, did you know that, according to Wikipedia, always the crown jewel of credibility, that he has the shortest surname in MLB history?! (Note from MSTI: Or as Diamond Leung Tweeted to me, Hu is now tied with Tigers reliever Fu-Te Ni for that honor).

O.K., I think that means we’ve done enough on shortstop. So tune in next time!

Next! Manny Ramirez’ fertility-fueled fun! Juan Pierre’s battle for relevance! It’s left field!

- Vin

The MSTI 16-Step 2010 plan

October 24, 2009 at 1:07 pm | Posted in 2010 plan!, Charlie Haeger, Chin-Lung Hu, Erik Bedard, Juan Pierre sucks, Luis Castillo, Ramon Hernandez, Troy Glaus, Xavier Paul | 44 Comments

Remember last year’s never-ending Manny saga? Well, we look to avoid that particular brand of torture this time around, but this is going to be an incredibly busy offseason for the Dodgers. From the McCourt divorce mess to the cries for an ace to the fact that only two of the starting 9 are under contract right now (Rafael Furcal & Casey Blake) to the 13 free agents and 9 arbitration-eligibles, this winter’s going to be a laugh a minute.

Oh, and it’s the worst free agent class in years. So there’s that.

With all that in mind, here’s the official MSTI Plan for 2010. Just like last year, this is what I’d do if I were GM, not what I think they will do. This is always the longest article of the year, so strap in! Also remember, when some of these end being grossly wrong, that I don’t have access to the internal neogotations – and if anything was learned from last year, what the market looks like in October is often nothing like what it does in January.

According to the most excellent Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Opening Day payroll in 2009 was $100.4 million. That’s down from $118.5m in 2008, but much of that is simply due to how many roster spots were taken up by young players making the minimum. It remains to be seen what the impending McCourt situation will do to the payroll, but I do think they’d take a lot of heat if they dropped below $100 million. Given that they did exceed that with incentives and made some extra money off the playoff run, we’ll say $110m is the goal.

Currently, the Dodgers have $40.9m in obligations for 2010 between Hiroki Kuroda, Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal, and Juan Pierre. (Hooray! No more Jason Schmidt!). Assuming that Manny picks up his option (spoiler alert: he will) that’s $10m more due to the terms of his deferred contract ($5m of his 2009 salary, $5m of his 2010 salary). That’s $50.9m, plus about $4.6m in payments still due Andruw Jones, Nomar Garciaparra, & Orlando Hudson’s incentives. Add in another $4m or so for guys who are under team control and not yet arbitration-eligible (Clayton Kershaw, Scott Elbert, Ramon Troncoso, James McDonald, etc.) and that gets you to about $60m. Can you you fill out the team for the remaining $50m? Let’s see…

1) Start signing some young players to contracts!

This is an absolute must, and one I’ve been harping on for years now. Well, this is the year it comes back to bite you in the ass, because the core of this team is all arbitration-eligible: Chad Billingsley, Russell Martin, Matt Kemp, James Loney, Andre Ethier, George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo, Jonathan Broxton, and Jason Repko.

It’s insane to think you can go year-to-year with these guys and not get killed. Besides, are we really waiting to see what Matt Kemp can do? Give the man a long-term contract. I know there’s some danger in saying that so callously, as I’d probably have said the same thing about Russell Martin two years ago, but still, Kemp has to be priority #1, with Ethier and Billingsley close behind.

Repko’s going to get cut loose, but the other 7 made approximately $13.3m this year. Guessing at what each will make in arbitration and/or long-term deals is a futile endeavor, so for now I’ll plug in the guesses made at Dodger Thoughts – that the 7 will be making $38.5m total next year after arbitration raises.
$60m + $38.5m = $98.5m

$98.5m already? This is going to be a short article.

2) Offer Orlando Hudson arbitration, expecting (and hoping) he’ll decline. Hudson’s going to be 32 in December, and after a mostly decent season, you have to figure he’s not going to pass up what might be his last chance to get a multi-year deal – in addition to any lingering bad feelings he might have over being benched in October. You might remember last year, when I wasn’t a big fan of handing over draft picks to the Diamondbacks for signing him in the first place. Well, we got an okay season out of him, so why not try to recoup the draft picks too? Even better, the worst-case scenario is that he does accept, and we can put off trying to plug the 2B hole for another year. But, he won’t.
$98.5m + $0m = $98.5m (with two picks!)

3) Offer Randy Wolf arbitration, expecting (but not hoping) he’ll decline. I think we’d all like to see Wolf back, but there’s no way he takes this offer. He’s 33, coming off the best season of his career, and might be the 2nd or 3rd best pitcher in a horrible free-agent market. You don’t think he’s going to try to get 3 years and $30+ million somewhere? Of course he is. At least we’ll pick up some draft picks.
$98.5m + $0m = $98.5m (with two more picks!)

4) Don’t offer arbitration to any other of the free agents, and don’t pick up Jon Garland’s $10m option. This includes the obvious (Schmidt, Castro, Thome, Ausmus, Milton, Loretta, Mientkiewicz, Weaver, and Mota), the less obvious but still no (Belliard), and the already-cut (Ohman). You could make a case for Belliard, I guess, but I think there’s a decent chance he accepts, which I’m not that interested in.
$98.5m + $0m = $98.5m

5) Trade Juan Pierre to the Mets for 2B Luis Castillo, assuming Hudson turned down arbitration. Okay, hear me out on this. Does anyone here think that Blake DeWitt is just going to get handed the 2B job? No way. Ivan DeJesus is a good prospect, but he missed all of 2009 with a broken leg and hasn’t yet made it past AA, so he’ll need time to get back into the swing of things. With Tony Abreu in Arizona and Orlando Hudson unlikely to accept arbitration, you’ve got a huge hole at 2B, and with the payroll situation so tight, you just can’t have a $10m backup OF in Pierre. But the only way to move him is to either eat the whole contract, which doesn’t save any money and costs us the slight value he has on the field, or to move him for an equally bad contact.

luiscastillo The numbers work out almost perfectly, as Pierre has $18.5m left on his deal, and Castillo has $18m. On the field, the Mets’ first year at spacious CitiField was a disaster, especially in the outfield. You know who played the most LF for the Mets last year? Gary Sheffield, and he was one of 9 left fielders who trotted out there. Plus, Carlos Beltran missed half the year in center with bad knee problems, which no one’s sure he can overcome. Their #1 leadoff hitter with Jose Reyes out? Angel Pagan. This is one situation where Pierre’s famous durability will help, because the Mets are dying for warm bodies. Since no one hits homers in that park anyway, his lack of power won’t hurt, and his speed can really help cut down on balls in the gaps.

For the Dodgers, well, I’ve never been much of a Castillo fan. At all. But if the goal is to dump Pierre’s contract, you can’t expect to get Chase Utley, right? And at least you can fill a hole in the lineup. Mets GM Omar Minaya got nearly as much flak for the 4-year deal he gave to Castillo before ’09 as Ned Colletti did for the Pierre deal, as he was 32 and coming off a dreadful (and injury-filled) 2008. However, Castillo did bounce back with a decent 2009, putting up only a 96 OPS+ but a very nice .387 OBP.

It’s not perfect. But would you rather spend $18m in the next 2 years on a lousy backup outfielder or on a mediocre starting second baseman who’d fill a need? Do it, Ned.

(Update: interesting discussion in the comments. A Mets fan believes this wouldn’t happen because it would leave a hole for the Mets at 2B… but favored commentator grabarkewitz points out that the Mets and Orlando Hudson expressed mutual interest in each other last season, and that could make sense again without Castillo around.)
$98.5m - $0 = $98.5m

6) Don’t go crazy with the idea that “you must get an ace”. I wrote a whole piece on this just the other day, so I won’t rehash the entire thing here. Just remember the take-home points: A) that there are very few – if any - ”aces” available, and B) that the Dodgers would hardly be the only team in the hunt for them. Besides, Clayton Kershaw was already a top-20 pitcher and can only be expected to improve. Remember, this doesn’t mean I don’t want an ace, just that there are limitations in the available supply of them and the Dodgers’ ability to spend prospects and money, and both Colletti and Torre are aware of that. If Roy Halladay becomes available and it doesn’t require giving up Kershaw or Chad Billingsley, then great. Otherwise, we have to live within the confines of reality.

One other thought on this; while the Dodgers may need an “ace” to win the World Series, they don’t necessarily need one to get to the playoffs. The best course of action might be to hold off until the trade deadline, see how Kershaw and Billingsley have developed, and see what teams out of the race are willing to talk then. Remember, pennants aren’t necessarily won by the winners of winter headlines.

That said, I’m not saying that there shouldn’t be any work done on the starting rotation, and there’s where we’re going with the next four steps…
$98.5m + $0m = $98.5m

7) Resign Vicente Padilla to a 1 year, $4m deal. Judging Padilla’s market value right now is nearly impossible, because I can’t think of any comparables. How do you judge a guy who was so hated in his own clubhouse that he was cut by a team in the pennant race in August, and then resurfaced with another contender to be fantastic down the stretch and dominant in 2 of 3 playoff starts?

On one hand, you’d think that a guy who pitched like he did would be in huge demand in a lousy pitching market. On the other hand, he’s 32 and has that horrible reputation. I can’t see anyone giving him a multi-year deal, and I’m maybe wearing slightly blue-tinted glasses when I read the articles that say he enjoyed his time in LA and was a model citizen, so perhaps he’d be more interested in staying with the Dodgers than wringing out every last cent.

If he stays, he’d be a nice addition to the rotation. He’s hit 200 IP three times and hasn’t had less than 115 IP since 2001. Hey, he’d hardly be the first guy to leave a small ballpark in the tougher league to come to a pitcher’s park in the NL and succeed, right?
$98.5m + $4m = $102.5m

8) Leave Chad Billingsley alone. I can’t believe this is even an issue, but the people who are on the “dump Billingsley” train are absolute fools. Yes, he was terrible in the second half of the season, I can’t deny that. But just remember the facts, here. We’re talking about a 25-year-old guy who’s shown all the signs of being a stud,who had a 2 month slump. In addition, he was fighting leg injuries for much of the time, and came back from a September trip to the bullpen to take a no-hitter into the 6th inning against Washington and then allowed just one hit into the 6th against San Diego, before getting hit in both cases.

So sure, he’s got issues to work out. Maybe it was fatigue, maybe his off-season broken leg put a cramp in his conditioning, maybe it’s mental – who knows. It’s just that the idea that a bad slump should kick him from “future ace” to “not worthy of employment” is insane.

Also, don’t forget, the two “aces” that everyone wanted to go get this summer? Cliff Lee was so bad in his age-28 season that he got sent to the minors. Roy Halladay was so bad in his 4th major league season that he got shipped back out to the minors, too. How do you think Blue Jay fans would feel if they’d given up on Doc in 2001? Exactly how we’d feel if Billingsley was moved now. Just leave the kid alone, and let him pitch. Jesus.
$102.5m + $0m = $102.5m

9) Take a chance on one of the four injured veteran pitchers trying to make a comeback – Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard, Justin Duchscherer, or Rich Harden. Just because I want to leave Billingsley be and don’t think there’s a chance to get a real “ace” doesn’t mean there shouldn’t be improvement in the rotation. But given payroll concerns and the lousy free agent market, you’re going to have to be a bit creative.

That being the case, taking a crack at one of these four – while risky – could prove to have huge rewards. All four have proven to be outstanding pitchers when healthy, and while the “when healthy” part is always an issue, that’s also going to help keep their prices down. So which one?

erikbedard Well, Sheets seems like he’s going to be the highest in demand, and is already drawing interest from several teams. Since the idea is to do this on the cheap, getting into a bidding war over him isn’t a great idea. Duchscherer missed the entire season not only with an elbow injury, but with depression, and I can’t find any information on his status.

So do we like Bedard or Harden? Bedard will be 31 next year and made just 30 starts for Seattle over the last two seasons, though he did have a 3.24 ERA and strike out a man per inning. Harden, 28 next year, was healthier (26 starts last year) and struck out more (nearly 11 per 9) but his WHIP and ERA were each higher than Bedard’s. Plus, he asked to be shut down in September, before the end of the season.

It’s really all kind of a crapshoot. I suppose I’d rather the lefty than the righty, so I’ll pick Bedard. As for contract, I have no idea what’s right here. 2 years, $15m?
$102.5m + $7.5m = $110m

10) Give Charlie Haeger a chance. I’m not saying to just hand the guy a starting gig, but he does seem to be completely invisible around the Dodgers, and it’s foolish to write him off. We’ve been running a “free Charlie Haeger!” campaign around here all summer, and he’s done nothing to change that.

The guy was one of the top pitchers in AAA last year, despite being in the high-altitude deathpad of Albuquerque. Then when he came up to the bigs, he was more than adequate – 19 IP in 6 games (2 starts), allowing a WHIP of just 1.053 and an ERA of 3.32.

With all of the complaints we heard all year about how the Dodger starters weren’t going deep into games, why wouldn’t we want to see a knuckleballer who could soak up innings? Even if he’s “just” league-average, there’s still a lot of value in that. So give him a chance to crack the bullpen as a long man and spot starter, available to step in if/when someone gets hurt. Besides, don’t let the knuckleball die!
$110m + $0m = $110m

11) Sign Troy Glaus to a 1 year, $5 million deal to be a power threat off the bench. There’s a reason the Dodgers went out and got Jim Thome for the stretch run, and that’s because the main foursome on the bench (Ausmus, Loretta, Castro, Pierre) combined for a grand total of two homers all year. That’s just not acceptable. But the way this team is put together, if you need power off the bench, it has to be from the corner infield positions – you’re never hitting for Manny/Kemp/Ethier, and you can’t find power in the middle infield.

troyglaus So why Glaus? Well, if you look at the list of free agent corner infielders, you see a lot of guys who either don’t fit the bill (Rich Aurillia, Geoff Blum, Mike Lamb, etc.) or guys who won’t accept a backup role (Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa, etc.) Glaus is 33 and coming off a season almost entirely lost to various injuries, and he hit just .172 in 14 games – so no one’s dying to give him a starting job. That said, he’s hit 20 homers or more 8 times and would fit well on a team that has a 3Bman in Casey Blake who’s not exactly a stud and a 1Bman in James Loney who’s not known for his power. Plus, he’s a Southern California native who might enjoy the chance to go home.

Even better, if he does regain his old form (he did hit 27 homers with an .856 OPS in 2008) and forces his way into the lineup, it’s hardly the worst thing in the world if he takes the 3B job for himself and pushes Blake into the 4-corners bench bat that he’s really more suited for anyway. At the least, you’d have a nice three-way time-share between Glaus, Blake, and Loney at 1st and 3rd. Anything’s better than Mark Loretta, right?
$110m + $5m = $115m

12) Realize that you have to stick with Russell Martin for lack of any other options, but sign a better backup. No one was more disappointed with Martin’s failures this year than I – as you’ll see in our positional reviews later this week – but the sad fact is, you have to stick with him in 2010. The only thing harder to get than an ace pitcher is a solid catcher, and a quick look around the list of available free agents is a study in depression. You’re not going to get one via trade either, because not every club has a good catcher and if they do, they’re not likely to give him up. So all you can really do is hope that as Martin enters his age-27 season, that his career isn’t over before it starts. Hey, wouldn’t Carlos Santana look good right about now instead of Casey Blake? Yeah, I thought so.

However, that doesn’t mean that you have to just accept the hand Martin has dealt you. While I expect that if Brad Ausmus wants to return, the Dodgers will happily take him back, I’d rather have a guy who’s able to share the load a little more with Martin should #55 completely falter again. Unfortunately, the list of available catchers is worse than I thought. Jason LaRue? Sal Fasano? No thanks.

So we’re going to do a little wishful thinking and sign former Red Ramon Hernandez to a 1 year, $1m contract. Hernandez will be 34 in 2010 and coming off a mediocre season interrupted by injury, so he’s hardly anyone’s starter next year. That said, he’s had his moments (7 double-digit homer seasons), including 15 in 2008, and while his ’09 OBP of .332 isn’t great, nor is it in the .200′s like so many of these other guys. I don’t like this move all that much, but there’s just not a lot of options here.
$115m + $1m = $116m

13) Don’t mess with the bullpen. The 2010 bullpen looks to be nearly the same as 2009′s, as the big cogs (Broxton, Sherrill, Kuo, Belisario, & Troncoso) are all under team control. On top of that, you still have Scott Elbert, James McDonald, and Charlie Haeger in the mix as long men/spot starters, Cory Wade trying to recapture the magic in AAA, and young guys like Josh Lindblom nearly ready to make an impact. It’s unreasonable to think that everyone repeats their great 2009 performances, but there’s also so much talent and depth here that it’s not worth it to go out and spend big money on an import.
$116m + $0 = $116m

14) Give Chin-Lung Hu first crack at being the backup middle infielder. I have no idea what to make of Hu anymore, following a dreadful 2006 (.660 OPS) with a superlative 2007 (.871 OPS) and decent 2008 and ’09 seasons (.708 and .725) in the minors. So he’s probably never going to hit enough to be an everyday big leaguer for a contending team. However, he is by all accounts a Gold Glove level defender. If you can put up with Juan Castro’s awfulness all season, why not upgrade the glove and take at least a chance of offensive upside with it? There’s no reason to stick Hu back in AAA yet again.
$116m + $0 = $116m

15) Give Xavier Paul first crack at being the 4th outfielder. Assuming that you have in fact dealt Juan Pierre, you’re going to need a backup outfielder. Of the many issues that bothered me about Pierre, near the top was that he didn’t fit the role very well; a 4th outfielder on this team is basically going to be a defensive caddy for Manny, and with Pierre’s horrible throwing arm, that wasn’t a great fit for him.

Paul’s going to be 25 in 2010, so if he has any future, it’s now. Not only is he known as a terrific outfielder with a strong arm, he’s got nothing left to prove in AAA (.841 OPS in 2008, .878 in 2009) and got a taste of the bigs (with a homer and a double among 3 hits in 14 at-bats) before being sidelined with a nasty leg infection. Time to see what he can do.
$116m + $0 = $116m

16) So long, farewell, auf Wiedersehen, goodbye… to a group of veterans that were here in 2009, but shouldn’t be in 2010 for a variety of reasons – some financial, and some performance-related. Jim Thome, Jon Garland, Ronnie Belliard, Doug Mientkiewicz, Jeff Weaver, Brad Ausmus, Guillermo Mota, Jason Repko, Mark Loretta, Juan Castro, and Will Ohman.
$116m + $0 = $116m

So after all of that, we have a roster that’s almost exactly at our budget goal. This leaves your 2010 Opening Day Dodgers as…

ethierlooksathomer SP Kershaw
SP Bedard
SP Billingsley
SP Kuroda
SP Padilla
RP Broxton
RP Sherrill
RP Troncoso
RP Kuo
RP Belisario
RP Elbert
RP Haeger