Seven Reasons for Optimism in 2012
February 23, 2012 at 6:27 am | Posted in Andre Ethier, Clayton Kershaw, Dee Gordon, Matt Kemp, Vin Scully | Leave a commentNearly five months after the disappointing 2011 season ended when a Kenley Jansen-induced flyball off the bat of Arizona’s John McDonald landed in Tony Gwynn‘s glove, pitchers and catchers are finally getting back to work in Camelback Ranch. Hitters will join them later this week, though many, like Dee Gordon and Matt Kemp, are already there. No matter what your outlook is on the 2012 season, this is the time of year where everyone has hope. (Well, everyone who isn’t an Orioles fan, I suppose, because that situation is beyond repair.)
Now, I’ll be the first to admit that much like last year, I haven’t exactly been thrilled with the offseason. The good will engendered by signing Kemp to an eight-year extension (which looks better by the day) hasn’t completely overcome the disappointment of spending millions on backloaded two-year contracts handed out to aging veterans, or that the previously-added expensive veterans like Matt Guerrier, Ted Lilly, & Juan Uribe are unlikely to improve enough to earn their contracts, or the fact that the big bat which was so desperately needed never arrived – despite the late push for Prince Fielder. Just like last year, this team looks like it’s built to win around 83-86 games, with some small chance of pushing 90, though with a likely equal change of falling below .500. When you have two of the best players in the game and some interesting young players around them, that’s not exactly what you hope your expectations would be entering the spring.
Still, it’s not all doom & gloom around here, so with a nod to last year’s attempt at finding some hope ahead of what looks like it could be an uninspiring season… here’s seven reasons why 2012 is going to be great – and no, the return of Brent Leach is not among them.
1. The welcome end of the Frank & Jamie McCourt era. I just cannot overemphasize this enough, because there’s almost nothing that can happen on the field that is going to make us remember 2012 as anything but the year that we finally rid ourselves of these two vultures.
The first mention of their separation on this site came on October 15, 2009, just hours before Game 1 of the NLCS. (Which I’ll never forgive them for. Jackasses.) In the nearly two-and-a-half-years since then, through dozens of sins and probably hundreds of posts on this site, they have bankrupted the team off the field, hindered it on the field, and dragged one of the crown jewels in American sport through untold miles of mud and embarrassment. (And let’s not forget, it’s hardly as though we all loved them right up until the news of their separation came out.)
We don’t know who the next owner will be, or how they’ll run the team. We all pray they’ll be the owner we all hope they will be, but we know that there’s no guarantees; the next owner could be just as bad as the current one. For the moment, it doesn’t matter, because come April 30, it won’t be Frank McCourt. That’s a sentence I’ve been dying to write for years. Soon, friends. Soon.
2. The pure joy of having Kemp & Clayton Kershaw. There’s a lot of fluff on this team. Old, backloaded, underwhelming, underperforming, overpaid fluff that at best will help you tread water, but isn’t going to really help you move forward. Yet in the midst of all that mediocrity, we’re lucky enough to have the best hitter and best pitcher in the National League, two elite talents who are either close to or in their primes, coming off seasons where they reached the potential we all knew they had.
The best part is, short of injury, there’s little reason to think that they won’t as productive in 2012 and going forward, because 2011 was hardly an out-of-nowhere fluke from either player. Kershaw was a top-ten pick who was successful basically from the day he arrived in the bigs and continued to improve through his breakout 2011; Kemp has been a productive player in each of his four full seasons, despite a (somewhat overblown) disappointing 2010. We should be careful not to get ahead of ourselves here, particularly with Kershaw not yet signed to a long-term deal, but it’s pretty hard not to think that we’re watching the early stages of two of the greatest careers in Dodger history. For that alone, we should be thankful.
3. A big rebound season from Andre Ethier. We keep going back and forth on Ethier. On one hand, I’ve been pretty clear that I don’t like the idea of investing big money in a moody, overrated player who isn’t a great defender, absolutely cannot hit lefties, and has dealt with nagging injuries as he moves into his age-30 season. (When you put it like that, he basically sounds like a platoon DH.)
Yet for all his shortcomings, everything is perfectly primed for Ethier to have a really, really big year. He’s finally healthy heading into 2012, and if you don’t think that matters, just check his pre- and post-injury stats from the last two years. He’s also in his final year before free agency, and he’s made his displeasure at not having been signed to an extension clear. Whether it’s to impress new ownership or potential suitors on the market, Ethier has a chip on his shoulder and plenty to prove in 2012. A healthy, motivated Andre Ethier is exactly the kind of Ethier that could put up a huge season… before convincing someone to wildly overpay him.
4. The breathtaking speed of Dee Gordon. I don’t know if Gordon has enough plate discipline to allow his zero-power game to work on the major league level. I don’t know if he can hone his defensive chops enough to stop making the errors on easy plays that occasionally hurt more than his flashy, outstanding plays help. And I especially don’t know if his slight frame can hold up to the rigors of a full season. But I do know this: in just 56 games last season, Gordon and his speed made more jaw-dropping plays on both offense and defense than I think we’ve seen over the last ten years.
Gordon’s done all the right things this winter to improve his game, from working out with Hall of Fame shortstop Barry Larkin to being one of the first to arrive at camp. It remains to be seen what kind of player he’s actually going to be, but no matter how much he progresses (or not) this year, his entertainment value alone is worth the price of admission. Considering the rest of the infielders that’ll be around him, that’s a stat which might even be more important than his on-base percentage.
5. More young pitching on the way. Last year, we were excited to see the next wave of Dodger hitters, since Gordon, Jerry Sands, and Trayvon Robinson were all starting together at Triple-A. All three saw big league time – though not exactly in the way we expected – and Gordon & Sands are poised to be big parts of the Dodger core going forward.
This year, it’s the youthful pitching that demands our attention. Other than Nathan Eovaldi, I’m not even really talking about what we saw in the bigs last year, because Scott Elbert & Josh Lindblom finally proved themselves as big leaguers after having been close for years, and Javy Guerra really came out of nowhere to take over the closer’s job – at least until Kenley Jansen takes it. If you look at all of the various top prospect lists that came out over this offseason, you’ll find an Alfredo Silverio here and a Joc Pederson there, but what you’ll mostly see is a Dodger list that is full of quality pitching, most of which is ready to make their Los Angeles debuts in 2012 and 2013. This year alone, you could see Eovaldi, or Allen Webster, or Shawn Tolleson, or Chris Withrow, or Steve Ames or others, plus the return of Rubby De La Rosa; after them, it might be Zach Lee, Chris Reed, Garrett Gould, Ethan Martin, Aaron Miller, Angel Sanchez and more.
ESPN’s Keith Law summed up the feeling well in a recent chat:
Mike (CT)
After really digging into this did any farm systems surprise you in a good or bad way??Klaw
Rockies came out better than I expected. Dodgers too. I love that collection of arms, and now it’s close enough to potentially impact the ML club this year.
We all know the failure rate of pitching prospects, and you can guarantee that some of the names on that list will either never make the bigs or do so unsuccessfully. But there’s so much talent there that we’re almost certain to see a few of them make big contributions to the Dodgers over the next few years (whether in blue or via trade), and they’re close enough that it’s worth keeping a close eye on them as they try to advance another level in 2012.
6. Improved infield defense. You can make a good argument that the Dodger infield might be the worst offensive group in baseball. (A really good argument, especially with the durability issues around Gordon, Mark Ellis, and Juan Uribe, and the complete unknown that is James Loney. But hey, at least Adam Kennedy is in reserve!) Who knows what you’ll get out of Uribe – though the fates aren’t on his side – and Ellis is coming off an age-34 season with a .288 OBP.
But what you should get out of this group is some fancy glovework, superior to what we saw last year. For all of his failures, Uribe was a plus defender at third base when he played, and Ellis has long been one of the better defensive second basemen in the game. Assuming health, they’re replacing 970 innings of Aaron Miles (who was merely passable at second and atrocious at third) and about 1050 innings of Jamey Carroll, who was rated as slightly below-average at each of the middle infield spots. As mentioned above, you hope that Gordon can get to enough balls with his incredible range to make up for the easy ones he’ll boot, and it’s easy to see how this group of infielders could potentially be a big step forward over last year. Even when they go down, the glovework may not suffer; for all of my problems with the Kennedy signing (and there are many), he’s still a decent second baseman, though one who should never play elsewhere, and Jerry Hairston offers a decent glove at a few spots. Beyond them, playing solid defense might be the only thing Justin Sellers can do.
Is this group going to hit, at all? Well, uh, this is the optimism post, so we’ll stick to what works. At the least, they’ll pick it, and that can only help the questionable starting staff beyond Kershaw.
7. Vin Scully. No matter what happens off the field, no matter how many games are lost on the field, as long as there’s Vin, there’s reason to watch. Well, home games, at least. No year with Vin can be a bad year, and it’s comforting to know that he’ll outlast Frank McCourt at Dodger Stadium.
News From the First Day of Dodger Spring Training
February 21, 2012 at 10:10 am | Posted in Blake Hawksworth, Clayton Kershaw, Dee Gordon, Javy Guerra | 71 Comments
Plenty of news coming in on this first official day of camp, and isn’t that a lovely feeling? Pitchers & catchers have reported, with position players joining them by Monday, and that means we’ll finally have real news & updates to talk about, not just hypotheticals and what-ifs. Don Mattingly held court this morning with a few of our famililar media names, and here’s what we know so far…
* Clayton Kershaw will be your Opening Day starter. (Ken Gurnick) Well, of course. This is news in the sense that “hey, Frank McCourt might not be such a great guy” is news. You know how I feel that the Opening Day assignment is wildly overrated, and so this doesn’t mean a great deal to me. Still, it’s a nice honor for Kershaw, and one that he’ll hopefully be able to carry for at least the next ten years. With three lefties likely to be in the rotation, I imagine that Kershaw will be followed by Chad Billingsley & Ted Lilly, then Aaron Harang & Chris Capuano. That will mean two lefties back-to-back as the rotation turns around, but that’s unavoidable.
* Dee Gordon will lead off and Matt Kemp will hit third. (Eric Stephen) No surprise here, either, especially with how well Kemp finished the year in the #3 spot. I think there’s a good enough argument to be made that Gordon is best served hitting lower in the order, where his inexperience and questionable on-base skills may not be exposed as much, but with his speed there was never any real chance Mattingly would have done that, and to be honest it’s not like there’s an obviously better choice anyway. (No, not even A.J. Ellis.) The official Dodger Twitter notes that Gordon reported early to camp and was in the cage taking BP today, which is a great sign. Dylan Hernandez adds that Mattingly likes the idea of Andre Ethier & Juan Rivera behind Kemp for protection, so while it’s not like we didn’t already know what the batting order was going to be, it seems pretty clear that the regular 8 will work out like so: 1) Gordon 2) Mark Ellis 3) Kemp 4) Ethier 5) Rivera 6) James Loney 7) Juan Uribe 8) A.J. Ellis, with some chance of Loney & Uribe being swapped. You know what’s going to be fun, though? When Gordon is inevitably banged-up, or even just gets a regular day off, and Jerry Hairston or Adam Kennedy gets to lead off instead.
* Blake Hawksworth is not going to be ready for Opening Day. (Dylan Hernandez). This initially came as something of a surprise, because Hawksworth’s January elbow surgery was originally not expected to keep him out so long, but Hernandez reveals that Hawksworth had to have a second procedure to deal with an infection that resulted from the first, so he’s “a few weeks behind schedule.” If there were any justice in the world, this would mean that the final bullpen spot would go to Josh Lindblom, who clearly proved he was big-league ready in his debut last season. Of course, Lindblom has options remaining, and the Dodgers have plenty of washed-up veteran non-roster types in camp. Remember yesterday when I said that I had a feeling that I couldn’t back up that Jamey Wright was going to make this team? Yeah, this is how. Depending on Hawksworth’s timetable, his recovery could force the Dodgers to make some interesting roster choices to make near the end of April when Ronald Belisario is eligible to return from suspension. (I know, it sounds crazy to even suggest it, but Stephen actually saw him in person today.)
* Javy Guerra starts camp as the closer. (Hernandez) Again, no surprise here, because Guerra took hold of the job last year after no one else could and did little to force the team to make a move. If he can be effective again this year, then fantastic, because Kenley Jansen is arguably more valuable as a “fireman” type who can come in and dominate when the situation dictates, rather than tether him to the 9th inning. Still, I see Jansen moving into the 9th inning at some point this year.
* Steve Yeager rejoins the Dodgers. Yeager, who originally joined the organization when he was drafted in 1967 and was a Dodger catcher for all but one of his 15 major league seasons before becoming an occasional Dodger hitting coach for four minor-league affiliates, has been hired to work with the backstops in camp. Yeager hit .228/.298/.355 over his career, which makes him basically the perfect person to work the current group of catchers… or lead an interstellar battleship.
* A spring training primer from Jon Weisman. In a long piece at ESPN/LA, Jon breaks down the players in camp, all the way from Kemp to Lance Zawadzki. Rabid followers over the winter will likely have seen all of these names already, but this is a good resource to keep bookmarked for three weeks from now when you’re trying to remember just who in the hell Matt Chico is.
More to come, no doubt.
Clayton Kershaw Avoids Arbitration With Two-Year Deal
February 7, 2012 at 2:15 pm | Posted in Clayton Kershaw, Jamey Wright | 31 Comments
No one ever likes going to arbitration, and Clayton Kershaw is no different – he’s avoided next week’s showdown by agreeing to a two-year deal worth $19m. That breaks down to a $500k signing bonus, $7.5m this year, and $11m in 2013, making it an incredibly rare backloaded two-year deal from Ned Colletti which I don’t hate.
This isn’t really as big of a deal as it sounds, because the contract is essentially the average of what he was likely to get in arbitration over the next two seasons anyway. All it really does is avoid the awkwardness of having to go to the arbitration room and try to pretend there’s actually reasons where you can refute claims of his awesomeness, so that’s something, I suppose. Considering that Tim Lincecum made $23m over the same two years of his career after winning one more Cy Young than Kershaw has, it’s a pretty fair deal all around.
Kershaw’s eligible for free agency following the 2014 season, so this doesn’t completely buy out his arbitration years. That’s fine, but it’s also the route the Phillies have taken with Cole Hamels, and they’re set up for a difficult situation as he enters his walk year with no long-term contract in place. Obviously, the Dodgers are in a different situation – they have just one other large deal as opposed to several, and the ownership situation hangs over everything at the moment – but it’s clear that whomever is actually in control of the club going forward needs to spend every moment of the two years this deal covers attempting to sign Kershaw to the long-term contract we’ve wanted him to have for quite some time.
The Dodgers now have 18 players under contract for 2012 for just a touch under $88m. Include approximately $4m more for the various minimum salary guys, and the active payroll stands at about $92m, not including deferrals and buyouts. That number increases to $92.4m contracted for 2013, though to just 11 players – Matt Kemp gets expensive, and Colletti’s odious two-year deals all ramp up – before dropping back to $33m committed in 2014 to only Kemp and Billingsley. Obviously, by that point you’ll have other young players in arbitration and plenty of other holes that will have need to have been filled.
Update: Tony Jackson reports that $2m of this year’s money is actually deferred to 2013.
******
Unrelated and obviously far less interesting, the Dodgers have signed 37-year-old veteran Jamey Wright to a minor-league contract and an invite to camp. Wright was a first-round pick of the Rockies way back in 1993; he made his debut in 1996 and was in Dodger Stadium three days later for his second career game against a Dodger lineup that featured Chad Fonville, Mike Blowers, and Greg Gagne. Despite being a soft-tossing righty, he has manage to last for sixteen seasons with eight teams, with two stops apiece in Colorado and Kansas City. Wright got into 60 games for the Mariners last year and actually posted a career-best 3.16 ERA, though the 4.30 FIP doesn’t quite back that up. As far as non-roster guys go, he’s par for the course and fine by me, though I’m not exactly sure I see how he has a prayer to make what looks to be a pretty full roster unless the injuries really pile up in camp.
Plenty of Dodgers Making the Cut on Bill James’ Top 100 Pitcher’s Duels
January 20, 2012 at 8:47 am | Posted in Clayton Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda, Rubby de la Rosa, Ted Lilly | 14 CommentsLast year, ESPN and Bill Simmons teamed up to launch “Grantland“, a new venture aimed at focusing more on long-form sportswriting, a throwback to the glory days of magazines and newspapers, as opposed to the shorter blog posts which are more popular today. Predictably, the feedback has been mixed; some of the work I’ve read has been excellent, but good lord, can it be pretentious.
Your feelings on Simmons aside, it’s hard to argue with a staff that includes Chuck Klosterman, Jonah Keri, Rany Jazayerli, and Katie Baker, among many others, and today they’ve added a new luminary: baseball stats legend Bill James. James debuts with a list of the 100 best pitcher’s duels of 2011 – completely subjectively, of course, because how else could you do it – and wouldn’t you know it, 10 of his first 42 entries involved the Dodgers. As it turns out – and this is going to come as a huge surprise, I know – Clayton Kershaw is really, really good, and I don’t know if anything was more fun this past season than watching him constantly beat down Tim Lincecum and the Giants.
3. July 20, 2011, Dodgers at San Francisco, Clayton Kershaw against Tim Lincecum
Now how about adding eight shutout innings with 12 whiffs against just three hits and a walk? By Game Score, which is admittedly imperfect, that was the third best start of Kershaw’s career. That it was also the third best start of his season should tell you a lot about just how good his 2011 has been so far, particularly now that he’s up to 23 consecutive scoreless innings and an MLB-best 167 strikeouts.
5. September 9, 2011, Dodgers in San Francisco again, Kershaw and Lincecum rematch
Looks like I didn’t say anything, because I was traveling for a wedding that weekend. Stupid weddings, part one.
18. September 20, Giants in L.A., Lincecum against Kershaw, Round 3
Stupid weddings, part two. This was my birthday and I was busy getting engaged. Still not sure that choosing those over watching Kershaw / Lincecum was the right move.
23. June 26, Angels at Dodger Stadium, Jered Weaver against Clayton Kershaw
MSTI, June 26:
This is the 12th time in Kershaw’s career he’s put up double-digit strikeout numbers, though it’s the first time he’s done it in back-to-back starts, since he also struck out 11 Tigers last week. It also put him up to 128 K’s on the season, putting him back ahead of Justin Verlander for the most in baseball. That’s impressive, but that’s not what I liked the best about today; it was the fact that he did it without a single walk. Remember when we said that the only thing holding him back from megaultrastardom was harnessing the walks? Yeah, about that: his K/BB rate from 2008-11: 1.92, 2.03, 2.62, 3.66.
Clayton Kershaw, shiny golden god.
25. August 9, Phillies in Los Angeles, Cliff Lee against Ted Lilly
MSTI, August 9:
On the other side of the ball, for all the jokes we have at Ted Lilly‘s expense, the veteran lefty was actually pretty solid against a good Phillies lineup. Lilly allowed just six hits and a walk over eight innings, which ties for his second-longest outing as a Dodger, and he even drilled Shane Victorino in the back for good measure. Of course, it wouldn’t be a Ted Lilly game if he didn’t allow a homer, and that’s how we get back to Lee, who took Lilly out to right field in the 7th inning. That made the score 2-0, though with the way Lee was pitching against the unimposing Dodger lineup, it might as well have been 200-0.
This was also the game where Dee Gordon injured his shoulder attempting to dive around Ryan Howard at first base, nearly causing all of us to pass out in terror.
31. August 2, Dodgers in San Diego, Mat Latos against Hiroki Kuroda
This win merely put the Dodgers to 50-59, and it’s amazing how tuned out we were from worrying about daily results at the time. The second-half improvement didn’t really get going until the latter half of August, and at the time we’d considered this team completely dead in the water, to the point where I was less concerned about recapping a phenomenal Kuroda start than I was about looking ahead to possible waiver moves and September recalls.
32. March 31 (season opener), San Francisco in Los Angeles, Lincecum against Kershaw
MSTI, March 31:
Earlier today, I noted that I had picked Clayton Kershaw to finish 1st in the NL Cy Young Award voting over at Baseball Prospectus. I’m now concerned that I didn’t pick him quite high enough, because Kershaw was absolutely sublime in tonight’s season opener, to the point where San Francisco starter Tim Lincecum allowed just one unearned run over seven innings himself, yet there was still no question about who was the most dominant starter on the mound tonight.
Kershaw scattered just four hits over seven scoreless innings, but even that doesn’t tell the true tale. One of those hits should have been an error on a botched toss from James Loney to Kershaw, and one was a bloop that fell just out of Loney’s reach. But while Kershaw was outstanding all around, it’s not just the few hits he allowed that impressed me most, and it’s not the nine strikeouts he put up. It’s not even how bad he made a handful of Giants look, particularly when he offered his curve. It’s the fact that he walked just one and made it through seven innings with fewer than 100 pitches. In years past, it might have taken him 120 pitches to get that far; in starts that aren’t his first of the season, you’d expect to see him continue into the 8th and 9th.
Need more proof of Kershaw’s progression? This was the 11th time in his career that he pitched at least seven innings without allowing more than one walk. Though he’s been in the bigs since mid-2008, seven of the previous ten came after June 27, 2010 – i.e., in the last half a season. We’ve long known that Kershaw had all the talent in the world, but there’s now a clear pattern of him harnessing the wildness and becoming one of the most dominant pitchers in the bigs. Mark my words, this is the year he gets the respect from the general public he deserves. Oh, and he turned 23 two weeks ago.
35. June 8, Dodgers in Philadelphia, Hiroki Kuroda against Cole Hamels
Kuroda was very good, as I mentioned…
Hiroki Kuroda sailed through the first four innings on a hot night in Philadelphia, escaped some trouble in the 5th, and then was touched for a Ryan Howard solo homer in the 6th. That was the run that put the Dodgers down 1-0 entering the top of the 7th…
…but this game ended up being far more memorable for being one of the low points of a dreadful first half by the offense, as once again, no Dodger other than Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp could contribute even the slightest bit of help:
Down one run, Andre Ethier & Matt Kemp set up the 5-6-7 hitters with two men in scoring position and no outs. To avoid scoring a run in that situation, you basically have to be actively trying to fail. To the surprise of absolutely no one, Juan Uribe, Marcus Thames, and Rod Barajas failed to get the job done. But that’s not news; Ethier and Kemp have been sabotaged by their underperforming teammates all season long. What really got me was the furor on Twitter as this was happening. In rough chronological order…
Tony Jackson (ESPNLA):
horrible AB by Uribe right there. Just horrible.
Boy am I glad we kept Thames
Dylan Hernandez (LA Times):
Thames, who batted 3rd Monday, comes up with men on the corners. “It doesn’t matter where you bat him,” someone said, “the game finds him.
Jayson Stark (ESPN):
The Rod Barajas Fan Club will be delighted to know that once that pop-up came down, he was 2 for 37 this year with men in scoring position.
@jaysonst and that .054 average is 54 points better than Thames, who is now 0 for 11 w/RISP
I have never seen a team come up with more creative ways to not score after getting a runner to third with less than two outs.
Kevin Modesti (LA Daily News):
@dodgerscribe It’s another example of we’ve talked about. Ethier & Kemp get on … Uribe, Thames & Barajas coming up — what do you expect?
That was one of those Dodgers offense moments you sorta knew was coming, but you still feel disgusted anyway watching it happen.
36. July 9, Dodgers in San Diego, Rubby De La Rosa against Aaron Harang
This led to one of my favorite post titles of the season,”Dodgers Win in Most Dodger Way Possible“. This was still a few weeks before the second half surge really got going, and the team was so bad at this point that it was all you could do to laugh at them.
Being no-hit for 8 2/3 innings, nearly wasting six one-hit innings from rookie standout Rubby De La Rosa, and then winning on two miraculous hits from Juan Uribe and Dioner Navarro, two of the worst hitters on the team?
Yeah, that sounds about right.
42. June 19, Houston in L.A., Bud Norris against Hiroki Kuroda
MSTI, June 19:
For 7 1/3 scoreless innings on Sunday, the Dodgers looked likely to set us up for disappointment. Hiroki Kuroda had sailed through the first seven, allowing just five baserunners before Matt Guerrier threw a clean eighth. After a tough turn around the starting rotation, it was a much-needed boost from the veteran. But yet again, there was absolutely no support from the offense, as Bud Norris and Sergio Escalona held the Dodgers to harmless singles by James Loney and Dioner Navarro, and walks by Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. There’s a reason Kuroda has a losing record both for the season and his career, and it’s because of games like this. How many times have we seen a solid starting pitching performance wasted due to an offense that is barely of a Triple-A caliber? Tony Gwynn flied out to center to start the eighth, and with the bottom up the order due up, it seemed just a matter of time before patchwork bullpen (though buoyed by the returns of Kenley Jansen yesterday and Hong-Chih Kuo today) would allow the Astros to score and complete the sweep.
Kuroda didn’t get the win in the boxscore today – Guerrier did – but I think we all know who deserves that W next to his name.
Just barely avoiding a sweep against the lowly Astros. How did we survive the first half of the season again?
Perhaps more pertinent to the current situation, I wonder how this list might look if it were redone after 2012, now that Kuroda is gone and De La Rosa is injured. To be fair, Chad Billingsley does appear twice in the second half of the list, Harang was very good in the De La Rosa game, and Chris Capuano had the single best-pitched game of 2011 as judged by Game Score. (To be even more fair, this is a completely subjective list that’s very easy to tear apart and by definition requires both pitchers to be excellent at the same time, something which the mediocre Dodger offense probably had a big hand in.)
Non-Tender Monday
December 12, 2011 at 6:36 am | Posted in Andre Ethier, James Loney, Hong-Chih Kuo, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gwynn | 44 CommentsTonight at 12am ET / 9pm PT represents the deadline for the Dodgers to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players, and while there’s not quite the “will they or won’t they?” drama that accompanied the Russell Martin decision last year, there’s still some choices to be made. Entering the off-season, the Dodgers had seven eligible players to decide upon…
- First time: Clayton Kershaw,
Dana Eveland - Second time: Tony Gwynn
- Third time:
Matt Kemp, James Loney, Hong-Chih Kuo - Fourth time: Andre Ethier
… but obviously, Kemp’s new mega-deal and Eveland’s trade to Baltimore takes them out of the mix. Let’s look at the other five.
Kershaw. Uh, yeah. Pretty sure the reigning NL Cy Young is going to get tendered, and assuming he doesn’t sign a long-term deal, he’s in line for something like $7-$8m in his first year of arbitration. Yes, of course.
Gwynn. Though this is his second year of eligibility, Gwynn hasn’t actually gone through the arbitration process, since San Diego non-tendered him last December. After signing with the Dodgers for $675,000, he provided the expected mixture of mediocre offense and outstanding defense, in addition to being a useful piece on the bases. Though I think you could probably do a little better with the roster spot, he’s an acceptable backup outfielder, and so the question of whether he gets an offer comes down to numbers, both in terms of money and personnel. Gwynn could get over $1m in arbitration, perhaps more than the Dodgers want to spend, and the addition of Jerry Hairston means that they now have someone who can in theory spell Matt Kemp now and then in center field. In addition, if the Dodgers do plan on adding that additional bat we keep hearing about, there just might not be room for Gwynn on the roster, particularly if the addition is left-handed. Still, the outfield defense is subpar and Hairston isn’t really ideal in center, so Gwynn is valuable enough for his glove alone; I think it’s slightly more likely than not that he is tendered, though this is clearly the toughest call of any today. Probably.
Loney. It’s amazing to think that this is even a consideration after how certain we were for much of 2011 that he was absolutely going to get non-tendered, but Loney’s stellar finish seems to have earned him another chance, at least based on Ned Colletti’s comments of late. Loney’s recent (and increasingly bizarre) run-in with the law on a Los Angeles freeway last month aren’t helping his case, though it doesn’t appear to have hurt his standing with the club, and assuming the Dodgers have no prayer at landing Prince Fielder, there’s few other first base alternatives left anyway. Yes.
Kuo. The inverse of Loney, where a year ago it was difficult to imagine that a non-tender was even a possibility. If an awful 2011 was the only issue, you could perhaps see the club taking a chance, but yet another arm surgery torpedoed any shot that they’d risk the ~$3m he’d get in arbitration. That doesn’t mean we’ve definitely seen the last of him, however, because it’s unlikely any other club gives him a serious offer, and if he returns to baseball, he might not feel comfortable trusting his fragile health to a training staff who doesn’t know him nearly as well as the Dodgers do. No.
Ethier. Despite worrying before the season that he’d be non-tendered if he didn’t perform well and then going out and having an injury-plagued, sub-par season, Ethier’s a lock to receive a tender. He’ll likely receive about $12m in his final season of arbitration, and while that’s a bit pricey for me, I’m relatively optimistic he’ll have a productive season – and if the Dodgers are out of it in July, they can trade him and save about $4m of that. Yes.
Winter Meetings, Day One (Updated)
December 5, 2011 at 6:39 am | Posted in Aaron Harang, Alberto Castillo, Clayton Kershaw, Jamie Hoffmann, Jerry Hairston, Matt Dominguez, Ronald Belisario, Winter Meetings | 61 CommentsUpdate, 3:23pm PST:
And there it is. According to Ken Rosenthal, Hairston is done for 2/$6m. But there’s also this:
#Dodgers still working on Harang. Deal expected to be north of Capuano. Two years, $12M range
You know why? WINS AND ERA. Harang wasn’t better than Capuano last year. But he’s getting paid like he was because he had more wins and a lower ERA. Aaaaaaand head asplode.
Update, 3:03pm PST:
More fun! The Dodgers reportedly have a two-year offer out to utilityman Jerry Hairston, Jr. In theory, I don’t mind this, because unlike Adam Kennedy, Hairston has some offensive value and can play all over. But what’s with all of the two-year deals? Capuano got two. Mark Ellis got two. Harang reportedly will get two. Hairston, now, might have two. I’d say that Ned Colletti was looking to take next winter off entirely… if not for the fact that I desperately hope that’s happening regardless.
Update, 2:16pm PST:
Ken Gurnick at dodgers.com with news of two additional non-roster invites in addition to Shane Lindsay and Wil Ledezma, who we already knew about: pitcher Jose Ascanio and infielder Jeff Baisley. I’d be lying if I said I’d ever heard of either. Baisley, 29 this month, is a corner infielder who had a brief cup of coffee with the 2008 A’s, but has otherwise spent the last four years inflating his stats in the rarified air of the PCL. Ascanio, 27 in May, has seen big-league time in 46 games over parts of four seasons with the Pirates, Cubs, and Braves. In 30 games (five starts) for Pittsburgh’s Triple-A club in 2011, he struck out 50 in 44 innings, so that’s something. More Albuquerque fodder.
Update, 12:31pm PST:
All sorts of reports are landing that the Dodgers are nearing a deal with Aaron Harang. We’ll see how the dollar figures land before we judge; Harang was pretty bad outside of Petco last year, but you just cannot start the season with Nathan Eovaldi in the rotation. (Also, I suppose this answers the Hoffmann waiver as well.)
Also, hey, Harang, Ted Lilly, and Chris Capuano in the same rotation? Man, this team is totally going to win that 2006 wild card.
Update, 12:13pm PT:
Well, here’s a thing: per the official Colorado Rockies Twitter, the Dodgers have lost outfielder Jamie Hoffmann on waivers to their division rivals. This is the second time the Dodgers have said goodbye to Hoffmann, who was claimed by the Yankees in the 2010 Rule 5 draft before being returned before the end of camp. I’ve always felt that Hoffmann could have been useful as a reserve outfielder with a little pop who could play solid defense at all three positions, but he never really got a chance with the big club despite plenty of turnover around Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier.
The 40-man roster was full until Hoffmann was lost, and today was the deadline to set the 40-man before Thursday’s Rule 5 draft, making it possible the Dodgers are setting up for a claim. That, or another free agent signing, I suppose.
Update, 10:05am PT:
Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com reports the Dodgers are close to signing former Baltimore & Arizona reliever Alberto Castillo to a minor-league deal. In 79 MLB games over parts of the last four seasons, he’s got a 5.02 FIP and 1.78 K/BB, so he’ll be Triple-A filler at best. Despite his limited MLB experience, he’ll turn 37 next July; after some minor league time in the Giants & Yankees systems from 1994-98, he didn’t turn up again in American affiliated baseball until 2008.
Update, 9:50am PT:
This isn’t really a winter meetings rumor, but still fun to share. John Sickels has released his top 20 Dodger prospect list over at Minor League Ball, and to no one’s surprise Zach Lee tops the chart. Sadly, neither Tim Federowicz or the two relievers obtained in the Trayvon Robinson trade even make the top 20. It’s worth a click to see all of Sickels’ comments; here’s how he sums up the system:
The Dodgers farm system isn’t in terrific condition, but it’s not bad, either. They have good strength in right-handed starting pitching: Lee, Eovaldi, Webster, Gould, Sanchez, and Withrow could all develop into workhorse starters and perhaps more. Lee has the best projection and gets the highest grade, but all of these guys have the stuff to succeed, if they stay healthy, of course. There are also several impressive relief arms, beginning with Josh Lindblom who has already shown what he can do in the majors. Keep a close eye on sleeper prospect Red Patterson, who I might bump up to a C+.
Chris Reed and the now-overlooked Aaron Miller provide some southpaw balance as potential mid-rotation starters. Lefty efficiency specialist Mike Antonini is a Grade C type, but was added to the 40-man roster and has the potential to be a surprise. Guys like him sometimes pitch better with a major league defense behind them than they do in the minors, at least in short stretches.
The system is a lot weaker with position players. There are some exciting tools guys (Baldwin stands out) in the organization, but only Silverio and Pederson have shown much polish, the former after a long struggle. Pederson could have the highest grade a year from now if he performs well in full-season ball. There is a group of interesting power hitters (Songco, Smith, Van Slyke, Russell, possibly Dickson) who put up big numbers, but have flaws in their approach, are old for the level, or lack the tools to interest scouts. They should at least get a role player out of that group, although which one it will be is hard to say. Catching prospect Gorman Erickson needs a lot more attention than he’s received. Baseball America loves Tim Federowicz. I respect his glove and he’ll have a long career, but I don’t see his bat being good enough for him to get beyond role player status.
Original post:
As we’ve done in years past around here, I’ll do something of a “live blog” format each day of the winter meetings, since the news and rumors tend to fly so fast that it’s the only way to keep track of what’s going on. As each ludicrous, unbelievable story from a “source” flows in, I’ll update the post as warranted.
Let’s get the party started with a few notes:
** The Marlins beat everyone to the punch by signing Jose Reyes to a reported 6/$106m deal last night, which is probably going to result in Hanley Ramirez moving to third base while Chris Coghlan and Emilio Bonifacio handle center field. This has nothing to do with the Dodgers – though as a baseball fan, I have to admit I’m enjoying seeing the Marlins make some moves, given that they already have Heath Bell and are reportedly still attempting to get Albert Pujols and a starting pitcher – but assuming that Ramirez does agree to the move, that means that 2007 first-round pick Matt Dominguez is going to get blocked at the hot corner. Though he’s reportedly one of the best defensive third basemen around, the Chatsworth product has never really lived up to his offensive hype in the minors, hitting just .255/.325/.418 in parts of five seasons on the farm. However, he made his MLB debut last year and is only three months past his 22nd birthday, and the Dodgers have absolutely nothing at the position in the minors, so I’d be interested in checking in to see if he could be picked up relatively cheaply.
** From the “same time next year?” files: Ken Gurnick reports that Ronald Belisario, missing in action since the end of 2010 with visa issues, is still trying to return to the Dodgers. In other news, I want a date with Alison Brie. Seriously though, if he’s able to get past his legal concerns and return to the US, he’d be a welcome addition, since he was so good in 2009 and a bit underrated due to ERA in 2010. I have no idea if the Dodgers would even be interested in him at this point, and it’s hard to blame them if they’ve decided to simply wash their hands of him. Still, the performance he’s capable of for the minimum salary is intriguing.
Of course, since it’s likely he never gets his visa issues sorted out, this is probably a conversation that’s not even worth having.
** Don’t get too excited about this, but it’s worth at least sharing Buster Olney’s tweet from this morning…
The representatives for Clayton Kershaw have had early contact with the Dodgers about a long-term deal,but no serious talks have taken place
While this would of course be fantastic, I find it incredibly unlikely that Kershaw could get an extension in the same winter as Matt Kemp, especially considering all of the payroll issues. As Olney says, the talks aren’t too serious yet anyway. If Kershaw did sign this winter, he could probably expect something like a 5/$80m deal.
** Finally, a reminder to keep some perspective this week. We’re all well aware by now that the offseason rumors we see in the age of Twitter are 90% posturing and BS; well, with all of the execs, agents, and media in the same place – and let’s face it, the same bars – you can be sure that the rumors that come from this week are to be taken with a grain of salt 100 times as large. (Which I suppose makes them 9000% posturing and BS, which, while mathematically impossible, sounds about right.)
Just remember, on the first day alone of the meetings last year, these were two actual rumors that popped up:
Tony Jackson with our first “HOLY CRAP!” moment:
Multiple sources told ESPNLosAngeles.com’s Tony Jackson on Monday that the Brewers are talking to the Dodgers about a deal that would send Prince Fielder from Milwaukee to Los Angeles for Loney and embattled closer Jonathan Broxton.
Yes, yes, yes, a million times yes.
and:
RT @washingnats: #Dodgers want #Nats SS Ian Desmond and RHP Jordan Zimmermann for James Loney
HAHAHAHA. Um, and I want a pony.
So just keep that in mind this week when you see someone suggesting that Matt Guerrier might get moved for Bryce Harper, okay?
Cy Young Wins the Clayton Kershaw Award
November 17, 2011 at 11:04 am | Posted in Clayton Kershaw, Mark Ellis, Ryan Tucker | 53 Comments
…which is what I can only assume it will be named by 2025 or so. Congratulations to Clayton Kershaw, who today became the first Dodger to take home the Cy Young Award since Eric Gagne in 2003, decisively defeating Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee of the Phillies. Kershaw took home 27 of the 32 first place votes, and becomes the youngest winner of the prize since Dwight Gooden at age 20 in 1985, who then of course went on to enjoy a long, productive, and trouble-free career for the ages. Four of the first place votes went to Halladay, and one goober cast his for Arizona’s Ian Kennedy, which, I can’t even right now.
Kershaw capped off his magnificent season by winning the pitching “Triple Crown”, which is a distinction so outdated that I dislike even discussing it, yet history has shown that the voters respond to that feat overwhelmingly positively. To be honest, I’m a little surprised that the margin of victory was so wide, because Halladay (higher WAR, better K/BB, better HR rate) and Lee (most shutouts) were both stellar in what is widely perceived as a tougher hitter’s park than Dodger Stadium, while each performing for a playoff team. You could really have made a case for any of the three, and Kershaw probably could have finished as low as third behind the two of them and it wouldn’t really have bothered me too much – all three pitched either 232 or 233 innings, and all three allowed 65 or 66 runs, making this the closest to a dead heat that I can ever remember.
Either way, Kershaw wins the award and is absolutely deserving of the honor. Before the season, I noted that his pedestrian win/loss record over the previous two seasons had somewhat held him out of the spotlight, and said that “this is the year that the greater baseball world recognizes Kershaw in his rightful place as one of the dominant starters in the game.” I doubt you’ll find much argument for that now.
******
Totally unrelated, but what the hell: the Dodgers have reportedly inked former Marlin & Ranger Ryan Tucker to a minor league deal with an invite to big league camp, though the team has not yet confirmed. (Like anyone’s really going to fabricate such a low-importance move.) The Burbank-born righty was a first-round pick (…ish, because he was the 34th overall choice) of the Marlins in 2005, but has contributed just 42 unbelievably unsuccessful innings for Florida in 2008 and Texas in 2011. In 153 minor league games (94 starts), he’s struck out 7.5/9 while walking 4.2/9, and missed most of 2009 with a knee injury. Tucker reportedly owns a plus fastball and not much in the way of command or secondary pitches, so he’s likely a depth move for ABQ and little more, though he doesn’t turn 25 for another two weeks.
******
Count R.J. Anderson at Baseball Prospectus as another writer who’s a bit confused by the Mark Ellis signing:
The question worth asking about the Ellis signing starts with “Why.” As in: Why pay Ellis more than the Twins paid Jamey Carroll? Formerly a sabermetrics cause célèbre, Ellis moved on from Oakland last season in a trade to Colorado. Upon doing so, Ellis’s bat perked up, and he went 11-for-22 with six extra-base hits over his first five games with the Rockies. In the 263 other plate appearances he received with the Rockies, Ellis hit .253/.298/.340 with 13 extra-base hits. Offensive feebleness is nothing new for Ellis, who owns a .267/.317/.374 line since 2009. Blame some of that ineffectiveness on Oakland, but Chavez Ravine is no offensive dreamland, either.
Ellis turns 35 in June and has a lengthy injury history, having made at least one trip to the disabled list in each season since 2008. He remains a capable glovesman, by most measures, but an atrophy of skills brought on by the injuries is not out of the question. There is an old pitching saying that goes something like, “You can give a batter height or width, but not both.” You can give an older, injury-prone player like Ellis money or years, but not both. The Dodgers did.
******
It’s been a long time coming, but it’s now official: the Houston Astros will move to the American League in 2013, a second wild card will be added (likely for 2012), and the two leagues will each have 15 teams, ensuring interleague play every day. Presumably, the two wild card teams will have a one-game play-in for the right of being the #4 seed in their league. Frankly, I’m not thrilled with the addition of another wild card – that’ll make 10 of 30 clubs in the playoffs, though whether the team that loses the one-game play-in really should consider themselves a “playoff club” is dubious – though I do agree that it’s time the 4-team AL West and 6-team NL Central go away. Still to be determined is how the schedule will work, and if the multiple wild cards can come from the same division.
Of course, since there’s reportedly little momentum to enforce a consistent ruling on the designated hitter across the leagues, that could potentially lead to a situation where an AL team in a tight race for the playoffs has to play their final series of the year in an NL park without their DH.
Clayton Kershaw Is About to Get Expensive
October 26, 2011 at 6:38 am | Posted in Clayton Kershaw | 15 Comments
Clayton Kershaw, as you may have heard, is awesome. He’s probably going to win the NL Cy Young next month, and as he enters his first year of arbitration eligibility, his salary is likely to skyrocket from ~$500k to something like $8m.
If Kershaw continues producing anything like he did in 2011 – a fair bet considering he’s still only 23 – the dollars it’s going to take to pay him each year are only going to keep getting higher, as Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors points out in his Dodgers offseason outlook:
We’ve seen top pitchers extended for about $30MM, but Kershaw might need $35MM just for his three arbitration years, and that might be a discount over going year-to-year. I think we’d be entering the $100MM range for a six year deal, which is incredible given that three of those would be arbitration years.
While any sort of big contract for a pitcher always comes with risk, I don’t think there’s anyone who would argue that Kershaw isn’t worth at least that and more, so he’ll get it eventually, and we’ll all be happy when he does. Except, as we see these numbers grow and grow, we start to wonder what might have been if he’d been signed to a long-term deal a year ago. The argument, we’ve always heard, is that there was no rush to sign a player who was still in his pre-arbitration years, and while it’s rare, it’s not unprecedented – the Rays signed Evan Longoria to such a deal after just a week in the bigs. If all of the team options are exercised, Longoria will make approximately $44m over the first nine years of his career, an enormous steal for Tampa Bay.
So how much might the Dodgers have cost themselves by not locking up Kershaw before his breakout year? We looked at just that topic in August of 2010, comparing Kershaw’s situation to other young pitchers with similar service time who had recently signed long-term deals – Jon Lester, Ricky Romero, and Yovani Gallardo. As it turned out, all three signed nearly identical deals, for $30m over five years, coming with one pre-arbitration year left.
$30m over 5 years seems to be the going rate for this caliber of pitcher at this point in his career, and if you want to toss in a bit more because Kershaw is younger, that’d be fine by me too. If nothing is done, he’ll make less than a million dollars in 2011. That’s a steal. But then he’ll be eligible for arbitration, and if he keeps on his current career path the yearly arbitration raises are going to get expensive and unpredictable. What if 2011 is his true breakout year, where he goes 21-6 with 212 K? We’ll be begging for the days when he might have been had for only $6m/year. So while I’m sure the responses here are going to be “sure, but the Dodgers are poor” (and it’s not that you’re wrong, it’s just that I’m trying to pretend we’re fans of a real baseball team for once), this is a deal that would save the Dodgers money in the long run.
Damn, a little low on the Ks, but apparently I nearly nailed the W/L almost exactly about 14 months ago. Anyway, the Dodgers clearly didn’t sign Kershaw, and that’s a big loss, because who wouldn’t be thrilled to know that he was under contract for four more years right now at reasonable prices? Thus far they have been content with going year-to-year with him; that’s about $8m this year, and who knows what it could be for 2013 and ’14, his final two years of arbitration eligibility. As Dierkes notes, if he was signed for all three arbitration years this winter, it could be 3/$35, and since he considers that a discount over year-to-year, it might be about $40m if he keeps going through arbitration. And that doesn’t even buy out any free agent years.
It’s a two-way street, of course. It’s possible that the Dodgers reached out with interest in this type of deal and Kershaw wasn’t receptive, reasoning he’d rather pass up the security that would come with signing young while assuming the risk that would come with obtaining every last dollar – we just don’t know. In addition, there’s always the uncertainty that comes with the McCourt ownership situation, so it’s possible that Ned Colletti’s hands were just tied.
Regardless of the reasons, it’s clear that failing to follow the lead of other progressive organizations and locking up a young star early is going to cost the Dodgers tens of millions of dollars. Considering that Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier are both two years closer to free agency and thus more urgent (if not, in Ethier’s case at least, more prudent) it’s unlikely this gets resolved this winter either. So you can look forward to seeing this article again a year from now, as I ponder Kershaw’s imminent $15m 2013 arbitration salary on the heels of his 24-8, 237 K 2012.
MSTI’s 2011 in Review: Starting Pitchers, Part 1
October 24, 2011 at 8:12 am | Posted in Clayton Kershaw, Jon Garland, Nathan Eovaldi | 42 CommentsToday we start the pitching reviews, and the rotation is split into three sections. With the exception of the fact that Clayton Kershaw is awesome and obviously will be first, they’re done in no order whatsoever other than to have both regular and fill-in starters in each piece. While it may make sense to have Part 1 be Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Hiroki Kuroda, no one wants to see a Part 3 that is entirely John Ely, Dana Eveland, and Jon Garland, right?
Clayton Kershaw (A+2)
2.28 ERA, 2.47 FIP, 9.57 K/9, 2.08 BB/9
Remember, I’m basing these grades on expectations, and we had sky-high expectations for Kershaw entering the season. He still gets a great grade, because he met those expectations and then shattered them. If you don’t remember just how highly we thought of him even before the season, recall that he was #1 on my list of “Six Reasons for Optimism in 2011“:
1) Clayton Kershaw. You hardly need me to revisit all the ways in which Kershaw is awesome; I did just that already in his 2010 Season in Review piece. He had a two-month stretch last season in which he was basically the best pitcher in baseball, and while that’s probably a bit too much to hang on his head right now, you can certainly make the argument that he’s already one of the best lefty starters in baseball. Forget what you hear about him still needing to do this or that to be an “ace”; if he made no further progressions, he’d still be worthy of being at the top of nearly any team’s rotation.
Yet, there’s still so much more there. Last year he made a marked improvement in his major weakness by walking 10 fewer batters despite pitching 30 more innings than in 2009. Don’t forget, he’s not even 23 yet. I’ve been arguing that he turned potential into performance last year, but the greater accolades haven’t quite come yet because of his mediocre (and pointless) win-loss record. This is the year that the greater baseball world recognizes Kershaw in his rightful place as one of the dominant starters in the game.
I’d say that last sentence paid off pretty well, right? We got off to a good start when Don Mattingly named Kershaw the Opening Day starter on the first day of camp, and after a relatively quiet spring Kershaw proved Mattingly right by dominating Tim Lincecum on March 31:
Earlier today, I noted that I had picked Clayton Kershaw to finish 1st in the NL Cy Young Award voting over at Baseball Prospectus. I’m now concerned that I didn’t pick him quite high enough, because Kershaw was absolutely sublime in tonight’s season opener, to the point where San Francisco starter Tim Lincecum allowed just one unearned run over seven innings himself, yet there was still no question about who was the most dominant starter on the mound tonight.
Kershaw scattered just four hits over seven scoreless innings, but even that doesn’t tell the true tale. One of those hits should have been an error on a botched toss from James Loney to Kershaw, and one was a bloop that fell just out of Loney’s reach. But while Kershaw was outstanding all around, it’s not just the few hits he allowed that impressed me most, and it’s not the nine strikeouts he put up. It’s not even how bad he made a handful of Giants look, particularly when he offered his curve. It’s the fact that he walked just one and made it through seven innings with fewer than 100 pitches. In years past, it might have taken him 120 pitches to get that far; in starts that aren’t his first of the season, you’d expect to see him continue into the 8th and 9th.
Need more proof of Kershaw’s progression? This was the 11th time in his career that he pitched at least seven innings without allowing more than one walk. Though he’s been in the bigs since mid-2008, seven of the previous ten came after June 27, 2010 – i.e., in the last half a season. We’ve long known that Kershaw had all the talent in the world, but there’s now a clear pattern of him harnessing the wildness and becoming one of the most dominant pitchers in the bigs. Mark my words, this is the year he gets the respect from the general public he deserves. Oh, and he turned 23 two weeks ago.
“Beating up on Lincecum and the Giants” proved to be a general theme of the season, as Kershaw won five of his six starts against San Francisco, allowing five earned runs in 42 innings along with a 49/8 K/BB ratio. By the end of April, Kershaw was off to a decent enough start, yet he was only 2-3, with both of his victories coming in games where he didn’t allow the opposition a single run. With the Dodger offense looking as dreadful as it was, we were cringing in anticipation of Kershaw having a fantastic year yet being denied the attention he deserved because he’d end up with a record like 14-12.
But Kershaw wasn’t about to let that happen. Seemingly every other start, I was including a note about how he’d just tossed out one of the better starts of his career by Game Score (an admittedly imperfect stat, but useful enough for quick-and-dirty comparisons). For the record, his top three career starts by that metric, and six of his best ten, came in 2011. In May, he had perhaps his best month of the season, picking up his second career shutout, going 4-0 and holding the opposition to a paltry .203/.247/.264 line, along with a fantastic 46/9 K/BB.
By June, we were so impressed that I was simply titling articles with names like ”Clayton Kershaw, Ace” and noting that he was pitching in at the plate, too:
Clayton Kershaw was a one-man wrecking crew, taking matters into his own hands to toss his second shutout of the season, made all the more impressive due to the fact that it was an all-righty American League Detroit lineup. The Tigers managed just two hits, none by heavy hitters Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, or Magglio Ordonez. Kershaw had no need for the bullpen, completing the game on 112 pitches while retiring the final 13 batters he faced – including three swinging strikeouts in the ninth.
But Kershaw wasn’t finished there. Yes, Juan Uribe gave him the only run he’d need with a solo homer in the second inning (sidenote: Ha, Brad Penny. Ha.) and Dioner Navarro doubled in a second run in the sixth. With two on and the bases loaded in the eighth, Kershaw came to the plate. We’ve seen Don Mattingly hit for Kershaw a few times in these situations, even earlier in the game, and it usually hasn’t worked out either on the offensive end or in the relievers who followed. Mattingly let Kershaw hit; he poked a single to right, scoring two, and that was that. Kershaw’s actually been better at the plate (.294/.333/.294 .627) than the real professional hitters who he’s faced (.211./270/.299 .569). He also now leads the league in strikeouts with 117.
Even better, take a look at the list of top five Game Scores in MLB this season. Two of the best five games in the league belong to our own Clayton Kershaw. The next time someone tells you he’s “on his way to being one of the best pitchers in baseball,” stop them immediately. He’s already there.
So it was no surprise we were giddy about him in July when the midseason reviews came around:
Clayton Kershaw (A+) (9-4, 3.03 ERA, 2.45 FIP)
Is A+ even high enough? I’m not sure it is, though we certainly expected great things from him. Think about this: his HR/9 rate and H/9 rate are unchanged from last year, but he’s managed to do that while lowering his walk rate (again!) and increasing his strikeout rate. He’s leading the league in whiffs, and he has two shutouts among his three complete games. He’s 23. He’s lefty. He’s an All-Star.Don’t let anyone tell you that he’s progressing towards being an ace, or one day he could be one of the best. Clayton Kershaw is, right now, one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball. The scary part? He could still get better.
Terrifyingly enough for everyone else, he did get better:
| I | Split | W | L | GS | CG | SHO | IP | R | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st Half | 9 | 4 | 3.03 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 130.2 | 45 | 35 | 147 | 1.048 | 10.1 | 4.20 | |
| 2nd Half | 12 | 1 | 1.31 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 102.2 | 21 | 19 | 101 | 0.886 | 8.9 | 5.32 |
A 101/19 K/BB? Who does that? In his second start after the break, he dominated the Giants again, then beat the Rockies and threw a complete game at the Padres, before having a rocky (for him) outing in Arizona on August 7, allowing four earned runs to collect his fifth loss of the season.
And then things got real. Just check out the ludicrous tear he went on after that Arizona game:
| Rk | Date | Opp | Rslt | Inngs | Dec | IP | H | ER | BB | SO | HR | Pit | GSc | 2B |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Aug 13 | HOU | W,6-1 | GS-8 | W(14-5) | 8.0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 112 | 74 | 2 |
| 26 | Aug 18 | MIL | W,5-1 | GS-8 | W(15-5) | 8.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 104 | 78 | 2 |
| 27 | Aug 23 | STL | W,13-2 | GS-6 | W(16-5) | 6.0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 108 | 66 | 1 |
| 28 | Aug 29 | SDP | W,4-1 | CG | W(17-5) | 9.0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 118 | 74 | 2 |
| 29 | Sep 4 | ATL | L,3-4 | GS-7 | 7.0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 115 | 61 | 1 | |
| 30 | Sep 9 | SFG | W,2-1 | GS-8 | W(18-5) | 8.0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 111 | 82 | 0 |
| 31 | Sep 14 | ARI | W,3-2 | GS-6 | W(19-5) | 5.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 63 | 70 | 1 |
| 32 | Sep 20 | SFG | W,2-1 | GS-8 | W(20-5) | 7.1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 115 | 66 | 1 |
| 33 | Sep 25 | SDP | W,6-2 | GS-8 | W(21-5) | 7.1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 93 | 67 | 1 |
| 233.1 | 174 | 59 | 54 | 248 | 15 |
That’s an absolutely insane run, and in the only game he didn’t win there – September 4 against the Braves – all he did was strike out ten without allowing a walk, being victimized somewhat by an Aaron Miles throwing error. At the end of August, we were already beginning to fantasize about his Cy Young prospects, while Kershaw gained notoriety for getting tossed out of a game for plunking Arizona’s Gerardo Parra:
The truth is probably somewhere in between, with my opinion leaning towards “Kershaw probably meant to send a message, not hit him, and Parra just stood there,” but to be honest, I don’t really care too much. I’m sure Bill Plaschke is furiously fapping away his latest story about how Kershaw has earned respect – you know, because everyone thought he was a joke before for only contending for the Cy Young at 23 – but it really doesn’t matter. If there is one unquestionable bad guy, it’s home plate umpire Welke, who wildly overreacted by immediately tossing Kershaw on a questionable call. (Update: when I wrote the line about Plaschke, he had not published an article this morning, and I was mostly joking. But just a few minutes ago, up went his piece, calling out Kershaw’s “toughness” and “leadership”. Predictable Bill is predictable.)
Kershaw avoided a suspension and continued on his run. On September 20, we acknowledged that even though pitcher wins are stupid, watching him go for his 20th was still meaningful; on the 21st, we again looked at his Cy chances if he won the “Triple Crown”, and when he ended his season by beating the Padres on the 25th, we had nothing but praise:
Clayton Kershaw reached the halfway mark of his 23rd year about 2 weeks ago, and with today’s 6-2 victory over San Diego, he’s merely just finished off what is arguably the best non-Koufax season in the long history of the Brooklyn & Los Angeles Dodgers.
21-5, 2.28 ERA, which is the lowest ERA in all of baseball. 248 strikeouts, the most by any lefty Dodger pitcher other than Koufax in team history, the sixth-highest total overall, and enough for a 2011 National League K crown (assuming Cliff Lee doesn’t whiff 17 in his final start, a number he has never reached.) At 23, it’s the highest strikeout total for someone his age or younger since Dwight Gooden had 268 in 1985. And since June, he’s 14-2, propelling him to an almost certain “pitching Triple Crown”, as much as it makes me cringe to type that phrase.
We can argue about whether those numbers all matter (spoiler alert: they don’t) but those numbers, more than WAR, FIP, or ERA+, are the ones that are going to get engraved in the public memory when you think about Kershaw’s outstanding 2011 season – in the same way people immediately can spout “23-8, 2.26″ when asked about Orel Hershiser’s 1988.
It remains to be seen if he wins the Cy Young Award – I’m leaning towards “he will” – but his progression to one of the most elite pitchers in baseball is undeniable. Or if you prefer it in graphical form, how about this collection of charts borrowed from a recent FanGraphs article?
Kershaw could have not improved at all from 2010, and still been one of the better pitchers around. Instead, he improved in nearly every area of the game, and it’s not hyperbole to say that there’s not a single pitcher in baseball I would trade him straight up for. And he’s still not even 24 yet, just now entering his first arbitration hearing. That’ll probably push his salary from ~$500k to ~$7m for 2012, which is still a bargain for the value he provides, but after Matt Kemp is (hopefully) locked up, getting Kershaw signed long-term has to be a top priority. Until that happens, we can at least count our blessings that we’re lucky enough to be present at the start of what could very well be a historic career.
Jon Garland (D-)
4.33 ERA, 4.65 FIP, 4.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9
When the Dodgers signed Jon Garland to round out the fifth spot in the rotation, it seemed like a great idea at the time, though not without worry for the $8m 2012 vesting option:
In a vacuum, this is a great move to fill out the rotation. Garland is certainly nothing spectacular, but his durability (9 straight years of at least 32 starts) and reliable average performance (FIP between 4.05 and 4.93 in each of those nine years) makes him one of the best #5 starters in the league. Seriously, #5 spots for most teams are average at best and dreadful at worst; there’s not too many clubs who can say that they can do better than Garland there.
“Durability.” “Reliability.” “Innings eater.” Those were the keywords you’d constantly hear tossed around regarding Garland, which made sense for a team that never found a #5 starter in 2010, and it made a whole lot of sense… for about three days:
Hey, today just keeps getting better and better! Jon Garland was just on Jim Bowden’s XM radio show. Bowden tweets:
Jon Garland just told us that teams wouldn’t offer him a multi-year deal because of MRI’s and Physicians opinions that he would break-down
I didn’t hear this live, so it’s possible something was lost in the translation, but it’s an eye-opener. On one hand, this seems highly unlikely, because Garland is known for his durability – and because what player would admit that?! On the other hand, it’s not like Ned Colletti’s never knowingly signed an injured pitcher before.
And for all the durability… Garland made it all the way to March 9 before straining his oblique and missing the rest of camp, starting the season on the disabled list. When he returned, he provided nine starts of varying quality before hitting the disabled list again, this time with shoulder inflammation that eventually required season-ending surgery in July.
So much for durability, right? On the other hand, Garland never came close to earning that $8m option for 2012, which is probably the best possible outcome. If he’s healthy after surgery, I’d take him back (at a far, far reduced one-year salary) to give him a shot as a back-end rotation type.
Nathan Eovaldi (A-)
3.63 ERA, 4.35 FIP, 6.0 K/9, 5.2 BB/9
I have to be honest: I gave Nathan Eovaldi just about no consideration for most of the season, and that’s why he gets a solid grade despite uneven performance. He literally didn’t enter my mind until his recall was imminent, and why should he have? He didn’t even rank on most top prospect lists entering the season, a reflection of the fact that he had a decent-but-not-great 2010, allowing 9.9 hits per nine and striking out just 6.6 per nine across three rookie-league and A-ball teams. That’s not to say he was a non-prospect, just not someone who demanded more interest than up-and-comers like Rubby De La Rosa, Zach Lee, and Allen Webster or highly-drafted disappointments Chris Withrow and Ethan Martin. The first time I even ever brought him up here was on July 14, and even that was just a brief mention as part of a look at who might be used to replace de la Rosa should he reach his innings limit.
But de la Rosa succumbed to injury before that was an issue, and with a solid season at AA Chattanooga under his belt, Eovaldi was indeed recalled to join the rotation in early August, forcing me to write a “let’s get to know Nathan Eovaldi” post for my own benefit as much as yours. Eovaldi’s first impression was generally a successful one, allowing two earned runs or fewer in his first four starts and in five of his six overall. However, while his contributions were certainly welcome, I had to voice some concerns after his fourth start:
That’s a pretty impressive start to a career, and the hope Eovaldi has provided has been well-timed in the aftermath of Rubby De La Rosa‘s elbow surgery. While that’s wonderful, there’s also some worry about how much of this is smoke-and-mirrors; after striking out seven in his debut in Arizona, he’s now struck out three, two, and one over his last three outings, totaling just six whiffs in 17 innings over the last three games. (Yes, the box score says he had two strikeouts tonight, but one was a foul bunt for strike three by Carpenter.) That’s a .232 BABIP, and that kind of success without missing bats is generally unsustainable. That’s not to take anything away from Eovaldi, of course, who should be thrilled with the way his season has gone; just a reminder to take the “OMG he has a 2.05 ERA” comments you’ll surely hear with the requisite grain of salt.
We began to see that course correction in his next start, when he allowed six hits and five runs over four innings to the Rockies, in the fact that he didn’t strike out a single batter in any of his four relief appearances to end the season after being removed from the rotation, and in the fact that his FIP is quite a bit higher than his ERA shows.
Still, as debuts go, Eovaldi’s was very good, hence the quality grade. He’s being talked up as a possible rotation option out of camp in 2012, but I’d consider that to be a worst-case scenario. Remember, teams never use only five starters, so that means you’re almost certainly going to need some starts from someone worse than your presumed fifth starter. I’d prefer Eovaldi be the guy stepping in to help out as needed, rather than someone you’re counting on from the start. It’s hardly the worst thing in the world for him to get more seasoning in the minors in preparation for a full-time gig later in the year or in 2013.
******
Next! Chad Billingsley continues to frustrate! Dana Eveland gets sent over from central casting to fill the role of ”Fungible Veteran Starter #X72!” And Rubby De La Rosa is so rudely taken away! It’s starting pitchers, part 2!
82-79
September 29, 2011 at 6:45 am | Posted in Clayton Kershaw, Matt Kemp | 55 Comments
Now that the insanity of last night has subsided a bit, I can look back at the season and honestly say: what.. a.. year.
I can say with little hyperbole that 2011 had some of the lowest and most exhausting moments I can ever remember in my years of following this club. Every time you thought it was as bad as it could get, it would get worse. I mean, bad enough where we were pining for the good old simple days of a bitterly public divorce that was threatening to tear the organization apart. That was before Frank McCourt made as many deals with the devil to make payroll as he could, before MLB took steps to take over the club, before McCourt then took the club into bankruptcy to save his skin, before a list of his many embarrassments became the most-read post in this history of this site, before court dates became more important than playoff dates, before Bryan Stow was nearly beaten to death in the parking lot, and before thousands upon thousands of empty, empty Dodger Stadium seats.
That’s also all before we even got to baseball. A team largely built on older players who couldn’t get on base… got hurt and didn’t get on base. The projected starting infield foursome started all of two games together. Casey Blake couldn’t stay healthy. Rafael Furcal couldn’t stay healthy or perform before being traded. Juan Uribe, when he wasn’t busy also not staying healthy, was an expensive and horrific disaster. James Loney looked to threaten records for offensive futility, and the question was less “will he be non-tendered” and more “will he even make it through the season?” Andre Ethier complained about his contract status, had a 30-game hitting streak, and then hit just .265 with 8 homers over the next four months while continuing to say stupid things before ending his season early to have knee surgery. Eugenio Velez existed. Dioner Navarro got hurt, was awful, and then was cut due to a poor work ethic. Aaron Miles got nearly 500 plate appearances. The three-headed left field monster of JaMarcus Gwybbons, Jr., which was never ever going to work, didn’t work. Trayvon Robinson was traded in a deal that just about no one outside of Ned Colletti seemed to like. Ted Lilly kicked off his $33m deal by serving mostly as a butt of jokes about how many dingers or stolen bases he’d allow that day. Chad Billingsley infuriated us by continuing to be consistently inconsistent, and Hiroki Kuroda refused to be traded. Jonathan Broxton never recovered from Joe Torre’s abuse. Hong-Chih Kuo‘s demons returned. Ronald Belisario didn’t. Jon Garland and Vicente Padilla combined to throw just 62.2 innings, while Kenley Jansen had to deal with a heart condition. Rubby De La Rosa made a smashing debut and was then cruelly snatched away from us for a year or more.
By July, they were 14 games under and 14.5 out, lows that hadn’t been reached in years, and it was somehow even worse than that. It’s one thing to follow a bad team; Pirates fans, among others, have been doing that for decades. But the off-field disasters combined with an on-field product that was not only lousy but just flat out boring made for the worst combination of all. It was hard to care. That’s how you know the season has gotten away from you, when you’ve got the option to flip on the Dodger game, watch yet another rerun of “the Simpsons”, or just go to bed, and the Dodger game is no longer a no-brainer choice.
And yet, as the season slowly droned on… there was hope. Not off the field, perhaps, as the legal battles have no end in sight and long-time communications honcho and all-around good guy Josh Rawitch departed for Arizona, though Stow is thankfully showing signs of recovery. But on the field, things turned around. At one point starting in late August, they won 11 of 12 games; their 34-20 record in August and September was among the best in baseball. Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw busted out to battle for the highest individual awards and produce seasons that will go down in team history. Loney suddenly became the best hitter on the planet, while Juan Rivera came over from Toronto to give Kemp some much-needed aid. Even Lilly turned it around, finishing the year with six consecutive homer-free starts after having allowed 16 in his previous 12. On the bench, Don Mattingly began to earn our respect. Young arms like Nathan Eovaldi, Scott Elbert, Josh Lindblom, and particularly Javy Guerra arrived to join the unhittable and record-setting Jansen to reinforce what was a tattered relief staff. The next wave of hitters made their debuts, generally forced to do so ahead of schedule, and Dee Gordon, Jerry Sands, Tim Federowicz, & Justin Sellers all look like they could be contributors in 2012. Perhaps most importantly of all, Vin Scully announced that he’d be so kind as to grace us with his presence for at least one more season.
A season that could have easily been a 61-101 debacle turned into an 82-79 revelation – an actual winning season, which in itself is a minor miracle considering all that happened. While there’s a ton of uncertainty headed into the offseason, this is at least a team where if you squint hard enough and jam your fingers in your ears deep enough to drown out the courtroom battles, you could possibly see a playoff contender next year. That might not sound like much, but it’s something, and that’s a whole lot more than we had just a while ago. (I, uh, didn’t mean to paraphrase a semi-obscure punk rock band there, but it just sort of happened.) Where once there was merely despair and hopelessness, the second half rebound at least provided some measure of joy and a possible light at the end of the tunnel.
As for this side of the screen, it’s been a good year. The blog has broken every previous traffic record it ever had, thanks to you all, and I was lucky enough to win an award I had no business winning, to be interviewed on SNY, do a few video podcasts with Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts (yes, you can all relax, my goofy beard is long gone), and fulfill a lifelong dream of being called a goof on the radio by Pat O’Brien. Yes, that Pat O’Brien. I was also able to conduct a fun interview with Christopher Jackson of the Albuquerque Baseball Examiner (who provided invaluable AAA insight all season), get interviewed a few times on Sirius / XM radio, and continue my duties at Baseball Prospectus.
All of which is to say… it might not have been the brightest year on the field, but sometimes that makes it all the more fun. Cheers to all of you for sticking it out with me and keeping me honest. Baseball never stops, of course; we’ll be starting to look at arbitration decisions, 2011 reviews, and 2012 plans before you know it, probably early next week. See you there.
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