MSTI’s 2011 in Review: Second Base

October 7, 2011 at 11:00 am | Posted in Aaron Miles, Eugenio Velez, Ivan DeJesus, Juan Castro | 46 Comments

Second base: where we discuss Aaron Miles and three guys who aren’t Aaron Miles. Good lord. You might want to get a stiff drink for this one.

We’re looking at four players today, and none of them are the guy originally signed to be the second baseman, Juan Uribe, or the guy most likely to have seen time there, Jamey Carroll, who we’ll talk about with the shortstops. Yeah, it was a hell of a season. On the other hand, the four second basemen we discussed last year at this time? Ryan Theriot, Blake DeWitt, Ronnie Belliard, and Nick Green. Yikes. Come back, Jeff Kent!

On the whole, Dodger second basemen – all seven of them – combined to finish 28th in MLB in OPS at .627, ahead of only the White Sox and Twins. Bleecccch.

Aaron Miles (B+)
.275/.314/.346 .660 3hr 0.1 WAR

So right off the bat we have one of the toughest grades of the year, Aaron Miles. On one hand, we expected absolutely nothing of him. Less than nothing, really, because when he was signed as a non-roster invite, I broke my own rule of never making a big deal over zero-cost NRIs, since every team signs dozens and few ever see the light of day:

I am constantly trying to reassure people that minor league contracts are never as big of a deal as they seem, and the inherent lack of risk makes them almost a no-lose proposition.

In this case, I’m not so sure, because Miles is atrociously bad. No, really; among players who have had as many plate appearances as Miles had since he debuted in 2003, only three players in baseball have been less valuable. It’s a special kind of “not valuable”, though. If you’re simply awful, you don’t get to stick around for that long. Miles has really hit the sweet spot of being bad enough to hurt his teams for years, yet not so bad that he gets outright drummed out of the game. It must be his A+ levels of “grit” and “scrap”.

So in the sense of, “was Aaron Miles one of the worst players to ever step on a baseball field,” as we expected, no: he was not. As Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal, and Uribe fell to injury, and as Ivan DeJesus either failed to pan out or wasn’t given a chance (depending on your perspective) Miles filled in ably enough at second and third, and was actually very, very good in June, leading the National League in batting average for the month. For a guy who was an afterthought at best and a joke at worst, he ended up being a useful enough cog for just about zero cost, and that alone creates value. I know the 0.1 WAR doesn’t seem like much, but when you consider that the options behind him might not have even been able to achieve that, it’s helpful. Sometimes, just showing up is half the battle, and so it’s here where we applaud Aaron Miles for being there when he was needed.

Here’s the thing, though: there’s a big difference between “wow, this guy gave us far, far more than we thought, and that’s awesome, even if it’s not really that much,” and “this is a guy who helps us win baseball games”, and Miles is most certainly the former. That fantastic June I mentioned, when he led the NL in average? Yeah, it was the only month all season where he wasn’t unspeakably awful:

Split G PA R H 2B 3B HR BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip
April/March 24 70 9 17 2 1 0 .258 .290 .318 .608 .298
May 22 85 3 23 2 0 0 .274 .274 .298 .571 .299
June 21 67 10 26 2 0 1 .419 .418 .500 .918 .439
July 22 81 7 20 7 0 0 .270 .321 .365 .686 .299
August 24 104 12 23 4 2 2 .242 .298 .389 .688 .250
Sept/Oct 23 83 8 16 0 0 0 .219 .305 .219 .524 .246
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Why the hits fell in during June when they fell in no other month, I cannot say, but this all added up to a wOBA that was in the bottom 15 of the entirety MLB. I suspect that part of his positive public image (aside, of course, from being the “gritty, scrappy, short white guy who plays hard”) is that his hot June pushed his batting average over .300, which is where it stayed for about two months before eventually settling in at .275. For those who look only at batting average, it was a nice number to see on the TV graphic every night, particularly as Uribe and others were disappointing us horribly. Obviously, there was little behind it in terms of on-base percentage, power, or defense, where he was passable at second base and cover-your-eyes awful at third.

Still, Miles deserves the B+ if only for how little we thought of him, and for being there when no one else was. Thanks for your service, Aaron. Hopefully if we see you next year, it’s when you’re visiting Los Angeles wearing the uniform of another team who foolishly gave you a two-year deal this winter.

Ivan DeJesus (inc.)
.188/.235/.188 .423 0hr -0.5 WAR

I’m not sure how you can see this season as anything but a massive disappointment for Ivan DeJesus. You’ve got the infield in tatters, you’ve got Aaron Miles getting nearly 500 plate appearances, you’ve got Eugenio Velez existing and taking up a roster spot for months, and you still can’t make an impression? Not good.

To be fair, it’s not like he got much of a chance; forced onto the Opening Day roster due to injuries, he received just seven starts in six weeks. Sent down in May, he got one cameo at-bat in June, and that was it for the season. That’s a bigger problem than it sounds like, because after not getting a September call-up in 2010, he didn’t get one again this year, seemingly bypassed on the depth chart by Justin Sellers. That doesn’t exactly shout “you’ve got a future here,” does it?

To his credit, he did have a decent enough year in ABQ, hitting .311/.389/.432 in that offense-friendly environment, but if he’s going to have a big-league career, it seems likely it’s going to be somewhere else.

Eugenio Velez (0-for-37)
.000/.075/.000 .075 0hr -0.7 WAR

Oh, holy good lord. How can I even make fun of Velez, record for consecutive hitless plate appearances or not? Just look at that picture. He looks like he’s twelve years old, and he plays ball like he has no arms or legs. He so clearly doesn’t belong in the big leagues that Don Mattingly even admitted as such.

Yet I can’t even rag on him. It’s not fun. Well, okay, it was fun when he first came up and actually started a game in left field, unless you’ve suddenly forgotten about “Baron Ironglove Von Pickoff“, and I did at one point advocate shooting him into the sun.

Seriously, I’m pals with several Giants writers on Twitter, and even with all of the garbage we went through this season, nothing seemed to give them more joy than the continuing trials and tribulations of Eugenio Velez. Think about that for a second. They’ve lived through the Eugenio Velez Experience, and it brings them joy to see him wearing the uniform of their most hated rivals.

I know he’s not really this bad… but I also can’t see a reason to ever have him back in Dodger Stadium ever again, even as an NRI. Or a bat boy. Or a ticket holder.

Juan Castro (inc.)
.286/.333/.286 .619 0hr 0.0 WAR

What can you even say about Castro at this point? He came back for yet another stint with the Dodgers, because of course he did. We laughed when he rejoined the team in May, and while he played in just seven games as a Dodger – none, surprisingly, at shortstop – he did play a part in one of the most unfortunate managerial moments of the season, with Clayton Kershaw sailing against the Giants:

Here’s where the problem comes in. Mattingly’s choices to hit for Kershaw, assuming you don’t want to waste the backup catcher that early, were Jerry Sands, Russ Mitchell, Tony Gwynn… and Juan Castro. None, I will grant, are great options. The clear choice is Sands, who has at least shown some extra base pop and is third on the team in doubles. You could argue for Gwynn, to get a lefty in there against the righty Cain.

But Mattingly chose Castro, and that’s where things went sideways. Castro is historically, unbelievably, amazingly atrocious. He owns one of the worst bats in major league history, and he’s 39 years old. He’s not even a lefty, which you might possibly have been able to argue. Yet that’s who Mattingly chose to hit with the bases loaded. Castro flew out, Carroll grounded out, and that threat was over. If you’re going to hit for the pitcher, that’s fine, but it’s pointless to waste Kershaw if you’re not even going to replace him with someone appreciably better. It’s no guarantee that Sands or Gwynn would have gotten the job done, but it was all but guaranteed that Castro would not. He didn’t, and with Kershaw gone, that’s how we ended up with Cormier in the ninth.

Good times. Castro finally retired in July to become one of Ned Colletti’s 486 special assistants, though he apparently ended up serving as a minor-league instructor. I’m still not convinced we won’t see him suit up again.

******

Next! Juan Uribe can’t live up to massively low expectations! Casey Blake hurt himself while I was writing this sentence! And Russ Mitchell just isn’t very good! It’s third base!

Dodgers Recall Three to Not Face Stephen Strasburg and Nationals

September 6, 2011 at 1:04 pm | Posted in Ivan DeJesus, John Ely, Tim Federowicz | 22 Comments


With the AAA season at an end, the Dodgers have recalled three Isotopes to bolster the roster, according to Dylan Hernandez: Jerry Sands, John Ely, and Tim Federowicz. Not a single one counts as a surprise, and if anything that seems to say that we should not be expecting Ivan DeJesus or Jamie Hoffmann to be making cameos, since there’s no reason to delay their recalls. If anything, I’m more intrigued to see what happens when AA Chattanooga’s playoff run comes to an end, since there’s been a lot of fun names tossed around as possible callups from that club, names like Shawn Tolleson, Allen Webster, Scott Van Slyke and Cole St. Clair.

Of the three newcomers, only Federowicz is seeing the bigs for the first time, and it will be interesting to see how they’re used. Ely is simply depth, of course, who may or may not get a start down the stretch depending on schedules, health, and Dana Eveland. Ideally, Sands will see a healthy amount of playing time as the club attempts to see if he can be counted on in 2012. Considering that Juan Rivera has been awful for the last two weeks (and remember, he was already DFA’d once this season) and that James Loney has only his recent hot streak to fall back on, you’d think it wouldn’t be too difficult to get him time, but things have a way of getting complicated. (He is not in tonight’s lineup.) (Update: Hernandez later added this, which, yay: “Mattingly wants to see Sands. Could result in more days off for Ethier and Rivera.”)

Then there’s Federowicz, who I had given little chance of being recalled in September until the Dodgers cut Dioner Navarro, this making Federowicz the third catcher on the depth chart. My guess is that he’s here mostly to get acclimated to the bigs and serve as depth rather than see any real playing time since he’s still so raw (just 115 games above A-ball). (Update: Hernandez, killing it today, confirms this as well; Federowicz is unlikely to play before the last week or two.) With Rod Barajas telling Steve Dilbeck of the LA Times that he would very much like to return in 2012, the catching situation is certainly in flux. I absolutely wouldn’t give Barajas another $3.2m, but if he wants to stay a Dodger so badly that he’s willing to do so for $1.5m or less, I’d be okay with that, since even though he’s generally terrible, his power is rare among catchers and a Barajas/A.J. Ellis combo would allow Federowicz more time to mature in AAA. Federowicz will wear #31, and while that may invite Mike Piazza comparisons, I’ll settle for at least being better than Jay Gibbons.

Of course, none of the three callups need to worry too much about getting to the ballpark on time, since it’s been raining all day in the east and the much-hyped return of Stephen Strasburg looks unlikely to happen tonight, setting up a likely doubleheader for tomorrow. Beyond tonight, the weather looks terrible in the DC area all week, and the Dodgers don’t have a day off before flying to San Francisco to start a weekend series on Friday, which raises the fun-but-ultimately-meaningless question, what happens if all three games get washed out? It’s not likely, but remains possible; other than a three-game set to end the season in Arizona, the Dodgers don’t leave California for the rest of the year.

With both teams hopelessly out of the chase, the league could choose to just not make up the dates, leaving the Dodgers and Nationals with a 159-game season. It’s not at all rare for teams to miss one game and finish with 161 games, which has happened dozens of times. Even a 160-game season isn’t unheard of, which has happened 17 times, though not since the 1991 Cubs. But 159 games? Since MLB went to a 162-game schedule in 1961, and excluding the strike years of 1972, 1981, and 1994-95, it’s happened just ten times, and even then it’s been over three decades since the 1979 White Sox did it. Of course, even they can’t top the 1971 Orioles, who played only 158 games thanks to 13 home rainouts. (Hat tip to Bob Timmermann for that info.)

The Injury Merry-go-round Keeps On Spinning

June 4, 2011 at 9:50 am | Posted in Ivan DeJesus, John Ely, Jon Garland, Rafael Furcal | 20 Comments

Per the official Dodgers Twitter feed, Rafael Furcal and Jon Garland have each been placed on the disabled list, as the team will go with a 23-man roster going forward. I suppose that’s only half true – Ivan DeJesus and John Ely are headed to join the team for the third and second time this season, respectively – but based on how little we saw DeJesus in his previous stints, there’s little reason to believe he’ll get any more of a shot now, particularly with Juan Uribe expected to return in the next 24-48 hours. Actually, I’m not even sure why DeJesus is bothering to get on the plane; when Uribe is activated, is there really any chance they’re not just going to send him right back down so they can keep Juan Castro?

As for Ely, he’s had a very bizarre season in Albuquerque. He dazzled Reno, one of the top hitting clubs in the PCL, with a three-hit shutout on May 22. But in his two starts since, he’s been crushed, allowing 11 baserunners in three innings to New Orleans on May 29, and then nine hits (including two homers) to Memphis on Wednesday. What makes all that so weird is that for all we’ve heard about the high-offense environment of Albuquerque, the Reno shutout was at home, while the last two disasters have been on the road. While there’s some argument to be made that he should get Garland’s start in order to protect Rubby De La Rosa, the team has made it pretty clear that de la Rosa will get the ball, and Ely’s poor last two times out makes it hard to dispute that. That said, he’ll probably be used in tandem, as de la Rosa’s unlikely to go deep into that game.

We’re still awaiting an official report on Furcal, but all indications are that he’s pulled his oblique muscle, an injury that can take weeks to heal even in the best of conditions. Furcal’s hardly wowed us with his durability, so I wouldn’t expect to see him until at least mid-July. That doesn’t leave a whole lot of time for him to get healthy and productive to impress any potential suitors before the deadline, which, as you can tell, is my main priority right now. I sure hope Hiroki Kuroda enjoys pinstripes, though.

Juan Castro Cannot Be Destroyed

May 13, 2011 at 10:34 am | Posted in Ivan DeJesus, Juan Castro | 25 Comments

In “things Eric Stephen predicted a week ago” news, Juan Castro will be joining the Dodgers for what feels like the 78th time. (It’s the 4th.) If I cared enough about Juan Castro to actually turn my computer on, I’d find the story I posted in the spring showing that he and Aaron Miles were two of the least valuable players in recent history, and now they’re on the same team. But it’s Castro, and he’s really not worth the effort, so this quick post written from a phone will have to suffice for you all to make fun of him. With Russ Mitchell likely to be the one to lose his job when Rafael Furcal returns in a week or so, I suppose this means we ought to root for Casey Blake‘s return to health more than ever, since that’s the only way this will get fixed.

As for Ivan DeJesus, sent back down for Castro, we’d long since acknowledged that the team wouldn’t play him, so I’m glad he’ll at least get regular playing time rather than riding the bench.

So What Does Aaron Miles Have on Don Mattingly?

April 24, 2011 at 9:38 am | Posted in Aaron Miles, Don Mattingly, Ivan DeJesus | 27 Comments

A quick thought for you on this holiday morning, and while it’s not one that’s particularly new – we’ve been complaining about this both here on the blog and on Twitter for some time now – it is one that gets more relevant as the days go on.

What, exactly, is Don Mattingly’s fascination with Aaron Miles, who is atop the lineup yet again for today’s game in Chicago? That’s the third time in the last seven games that Miles is leading off, and it will be his tenth start of the year. Miles, as just about everyone on the planet could have predicted, has been awful, hitting .214/.233/.278 for a 31 OPS+.

The issue here is that there’s two issues here, because ignoring the batting order for a moment, there is no godly reason to have Miles in the lineup at all. Yes, I understand that Rafael Furcal is on the disabled list and that Juan Uribe has missed a few days with a tight left thigh, thus requiring more time from the backups than we’d like. But why Miles, who is atrocious with no prayer of improvement, over Ivan DeJesus, who I’m not even a huge fan of but who satisfies the simple requirement of “not being Aaron Miles”? As Jon Weisman writes at Dodger Thoughts today, DeJesus has received just five plate appearances without a start since getting called up on April 12, while Miles has seen six starts in that time. Is DeJesus any sort of guarantee to perform? Of course not. But it wasn’t that long ago that he was a highly thought of prospect, and there’s at least potential for a spark there. You can’t say that about Miles.

Even beyond the impact it has on the field, the decision to continually play Miles over DeJesus goes directly against what Mattingly said on April 6, when DeJesus was initially sent down to make room for Casey Blake:

“He had a great spring. But the way we’re set up, his at-bats are not enough to dwarf his development,” manager Don Mattingly said of the decision to send De Jesus down. “I’m sure he’s disappointed — and I know he wants to be in the big leagues — but his best interest is for him to still be playing every day.”

“We know he’s going to handle the bat,” manager Don Mattingly said of De Jesus after announcing he’d been optioned. “Defensively, he just needs to keep working and keep putting polish on his game at second base. I look at Ivan as a kid that can play every day, and the way we’re set up, he’s not going to get the at-bats that’s really fair to him or to his development, or what we’re trying to do. To sit here and get two at-bats a week is not going to do him any good, and it’s not going to do us any good. He’s young, he can play. To me he’s an everyday guy.”

Yet that’s exactly what they’re doing, by sitting him in favor of an option that’s in no way obviously better. This is exactly the issue that worried me just after DeJesus was called up to fill Furcal’s spot:

I know I haven’t exactly been the biggest supporter of Ivan DeJesus, but can we please get him more time at second base instead of Aaron Miles? Maybe DeJesus is a big league player, and maybe he’s not, but at least there’s hope there. Miles (0-2 tonight, hitting .214) is just execrable, and that’s not likely to change. DeJesus at least got his first big league hit tonight, and there’s no reason to not be playing him.

Unfortunately, that’s exactly what we’re seeing. Yet compounding the playing time issue is that Mattingly insists on batting him leadoff, an insult aggravated more by the fact that the superior Jamey Carroll and his .372 OBP (working towards his fourth straight year of .355 or better) continues to hit 8th. Because when you want guys on base for Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp to drive in, why wouldn’t you put your worst hitter (okay, James Loney is still challenging for that crown) ahead of them?

Back when the Dodgers signed Miles in February, I noted that among players who have received as many plate appearances as he’s had since 2003, only three players in baseball have generated less value for their teams. In another two weeks or so he’ll have enough PA to knock Juan Encarnacion off the list and become the third least valuable player in that time. Ladies and gentlemen, your leadoff hitter.

We knew signing Miles was a terrible idea when it happened, and what we’ve seen of him so far hasn’t done anything to change that impression. So please, Don, spare us from having to see him play so much – and if you absolutely can’t resist that temptation, then at least hit him as low in the lineup as you can.

******

It’s still incredibly unlikely that this happens and even if it did, it would take months, years or more. Still, I wrote about a scenario in which Brewers owner and LA native Mark Attanasio could end up with control of the Dodgers the other day, and today I see this tidbit in Buster Olney’s piece:

Heard this: In the highest offices of a handful of other teams, the heavy speculation is that Brewers owner Mark Attanasio would be the most likely candidate to move from one team to the Dodgers — if Major League Baseball fends off the expected legal challenges of Frank McCourt, and if MLB decides to have an established owner take over the Dodgers — and if Attanasio actually were to take the opportunity, if presented. But it will take months for all of this to play out.

Don’t hold your breath, or get your hopes up. Just be happy that there’s people in the know who think that there’s even a sliver of a chance there.

Rafael Furcal Is An Endless Source of Blog Content (Updated)

April 12, 2011 at 7:07 am | Posted in Ivan DeJesus, Jamey Carroll, Juan Castro, Juan Uribe, Rafael Furcal | 41 Comments

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Rafael Furcal is hurt. I know! Who’d have thought? This time it’s his left thumb, which he broke on a slide into third base in the fifth inning. Remember, kids: never slide head first.

Though the immediate postgame stories were about Furcal’s mention that he might retire, that seems almost certainly a statement made out of immediate frustration, and it’s hardly like rehabbing a broken thumb is as arduous as coming back from a blown-out knee or any of the various back troubles he’s had over the years. He’ll be out for four to six weeks, maybe a bit more with a rehab stint, and we’ll see him again sometime before Memorial Day. If there’s a slim silver lining to this, it’s that he almost certainly won’t reach the 600 plate appearances it would take to get his 2012 option to vest. I don’t say that because I don’t like Furcal or am dying to see him gone, but because whenever you can get out of paying an aging, injury-prone player a guaranteed $12m, you do it.

That’s a worry for the offseason, though, because of course far more urgent is how the Dodgers are going to handle this absence, and let me stop you right there: it’s not going to be Dee Gordon. Sure, it’d be fun, it’d be exciting – and it’d also be a terrible idea. Gordon is absolutely not ready right now, and I’m of the opinion that I’m not sure he’s even going to be ready for next year. It’s not good for him, and it’s not good for the team. It shouldn’t happen, and it won’t.

Without Furcal, the Dodgers are really left with four questions: how to replace him at shortstop, who gets his roster spot, how does that impact the bench, and what will this do to the batting order? Let’s tackle them one at a time, and hope this doesn’t get as ugly as the 2008 hellscape of the punchless Chin-lung Hu, the decrepit Angel Berroa, and the corpse of Nomar Garciaparra filling in for Furcal.

Who plays shortstop? Most reports indicate that Jamey Carroll will get the bulk of the time at shortstop in Furcal’s absence, a task he handled admirably last season. That’s okay, I suppose, though I do wonder if Juan Uribe might not be the better choice there. Uribe unquestionably has the stronger arm, and has a 3.4 UZR/150 in over 900 games at the position, while Carroll is at -0.4 in 163 games. Conversely, Carroll has nearly twice as much second base experience as Uribe.

Who fills the roster spot? Assuming Gordon isn’t happening, the obvious 40-man roster choice would be Ivan DeJesus, Jr., though I’m not so sure that’ll happen. It’s not because of DeJesus’ unimpressive stint to start the season, because that was just a few games by a guy seeing his first big league action. It’s because if Carroll is indeed the shortstop, he’s still a 37-year-old career utility guy who can’t be expected to play every day. DeJesus is no longer seen as a shortstop; he may be able to fill in at third base in a pinch, but is basically limited to second base. If the Dodgers don’t want to push Uribe off of second to short a few times a week, the new infielder will need to be able to handle shortstop, particularly because Aaron Miles shouldn’t be playing there either. Besides, if they want DeJesus to play every day, that opportunity still wouldn’t be there for him in LA even with Furcal gone.

That leaves you with two non-roster options: Justin Sellers & Juan Castro. Sellers was someone I liked in the spring due to reports that he has a plus glove and good on-base skills, though he didn’t totally impress in camp. He’s not seen as an everyday major leaguer, so having him be a utilty man wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. Castro, well, you know all about him already. He’s completely and totally useless. Of course it’ll be Castro. (Update: we have our answer, it is DeJesus. See below.)

What does this do to the bench? Here’s where the impact could really be felt. Having Carroll play more is a bit of an injury risk, but it’s overall a good thing to get him in the lineup more. But without him on the bench? That’s a killer, because now you’re looking at a likely backup infield situation of Aaron Miles and Juan Castro (or one of the younger guys). That makes it harder to get Casey Blake the rest he needs without thowing away the day’s game, and since Blake is already banged-up just a week into the season, that kind of rest is vital. I can’t wait for the first day where we see Miles & Castro starting together, right?

How does this change the batting order? Without Furcal at the top, my best guess is that you see a lot more of Tony Gwynn, Jr., leading off. It is, to say the least, an imperfect solution, though I will admit that Don Mattingly doesn’t have a lot of better options. My hope is that he at least keeps Carroll at #2, perhaps even leading off when Gwynn is out, and doesn’t continually bury him at #8, giving more at-bats to the useless Miles & Castro. We’ll have to see how that plays out, though. Tony Jackson suggests that Matt Kemp should lead off, which would be interesting and a way to get him more at-bats, though I wouldn’t do it because I don’t want to see Kemp coming up with the bases empty 90% of the time because Rod Barajas and the pitcher didn’t get on in front of him. Jackson noted later in the story that Mattingly wouldn’t entertain the idea, which is good.

We’ll find out the answer to at least the second question later today, when Furcal is placed on the disabled list and a corresponding move is made. (If it’s not DeJesus, remember, someone will need to be DFA’d. With Jamie Hoffmann up and Jay Gibbons almost ready to return, Xavier Paul should be on notice. So it could be not only that we have to suffer through Castro again, but that we have to lose Paul or someone else to do it.)

As for the rest? We’ll have to see. It’ll be one of Don Mattingly’s first big tests.

******

Update: Tim Brown of Yahoo reports that it will indeed be DeJesus coming up to fill the spot. Not Castro, hooray! He also passes on this horrifying news…

Ivan DeJesus Jr will be in uni for Dodgers tonight, in place of Furcal. LA checked on Eckstein in spring, told it would cost $2 mil. Passed.

Not sure what’s more disturbing – that the Dodgers actually had interest in David Eckstein, or that he chose to not sign with anyone rather than play for less than $2m?

Update 2: MLBtraderumors is reporting that the Dodgers are considering using DeJesus at 2B, which would then push Uribe to 3B. I like the idea if DeJesus can handle it. Uribe’s strong arm would be an asset at 3B, and that would then supplement the bench by pushing Casey Blake to the LHP masher role he really ought to be. Could he be part of the solution to the fact that neither James Loney or Andre Ethier can hit lefties?

The Dawn Of the Ivan DeJesus, Jr. Era

April 1, 2011 at 3:29 pm | Posted in Chad Billingsley, Ivan DeJesus | 6 Comments

Okay, not really, since he’s almost certain to get sent down when Casey Blake returns sometime next week. Still, if he can get off to a good start and somehow grab at least a share of the 2B job, we’re that much closer to seeing Uribe stay at 3B (his better position) and having Blake off the bench (his only position).

With lefty Jonathan Sanchez on the mound, Tony Gwynn takes a seat in favor of Marcus Thames, also making his Dodger debut. Unfortunately, there’s no righty bats to take over for Andre Ethier (4 hits, 8/0 K/BB in 25 PA against Sanchez) or James Loney (4 hits, 6/0 K/BB in 26 PA). At least Matt Kemp‘s had success, with a .952 OPS in 29 tries against the San Francisco lefty.

On the other side, the newly enriched Chad Billingsley has made 15 starts against the Giants and made it through six or more innings in 12 of them. It’s actually better than it looks though, because two of the three he didn’t go six came in 2006 and 2007, which is practically ancient history at this point.

In fact, three of Billingsley’s top five career performances (based on Game Score) have come against the Giants – complete-game shutouts in 2008 and 2010, and eight innings without allowing an earned run last September. He’s particularly vexed Pablo Sandoval and Freddy Sanchez, who have combined to get on base just 12 times in 56 plate appearances against him.

The lineup (note: an updated lineup was just released with Juan Uribe benched and Aaron Miles included. Dylan Hernandez reports that Uribe’s left elbow is sore after being hit by Tim Lincecum yesterday.)

1. Rafael Furcal SS

2. Ivan DeJesus, Jr. 2B

3. Andre Ethier RF

4. Matt Kemp CF

5. Juan Uribe 3B Marcus Thames LF

6. James Loney 1B

7. Marcus Thames LF Rod Barajas C

8. Rod Barajas C Aaron Miles 3B

9. Chad Billingsley P

Don’t get used to game thread posts, by the way, since I generally don’t do them; that said, I do plan on being around for the games on both Saturday and Sunday, so I’ll probably keep it up through the weekend.

So Here’s Your 25-Man Roster (Updated)

March 28, 2011 at 9:19 am | Posted in Hector Gimenez, Ivan DeJesus, Xavier Paul | 25 Comments

This is largely comprised of news from the last several days that you’ve seen elsewhere, but since I was in Florida I’m playing a little catch-up here. Now it’s true that the 25-man roster hasn’t been officially announced, yet enough moves have been made that we can put the pieces together. With Ramon Troncoso shipped out, Dioner Navarro on the DL, Ron Mahay no longer with the club, Juan Castro told he wasn’t making the team, and Lance Cormier having been asked to accept a minor league assignment (though he reportedly has neither accepted nor exercised his out clause yet), this is what we’re looking at for Opening Day:

Hitters (14)
C Rod Barajas R/R
C Hector Gimenez S/R
1B James Loney L/L
2B Ivan DeJesus, Jr. R/R
SS Rafael Furcal S/R
3B Juan Uribe R/R
IF Jamey Carroll R/R
IF Aaron Miles S/R
LF/OF Tony Gwynn, Jr L/R
LF/1B Jay Gibbons L/L
LF/PH Marcus Thames R/R
LF/OF Xavier Paul L/L
CF Matt Kemp R/R
RF Andre Ethier L/L

Pitchers (11)
SP Clayton Kershaw L
SP Chad Billingsley R
SP Ted Lilly L
SP Hiroki Kuroda R
CL Jonathan Broxton R
RP Hong-Chih Kuo L
RP Kenley Jansen R
RP Matt Guerrier R
RP Blake Hawksworth R
RP Mike MacDougal R
RP Scott Elbert L
RP Lance Cormier R (now added)

Disabled List (4)
SP Jon Garland R
RP Vicente Padilla R
C Dioner Navarro S/R
3B Casey Blake R/R

There’s still a small possibility A.J. Ellis is kept over Gimenez, or that Cormier’s refusal to report to the minors convinces the team to keep him over Elbert (Update: this looks to have happened, see below), but otherwise this is the team you’ll see on Thursday. Not exactly what we thought we’d see six weeks ago, right?

Remember, however, that even though much is made of the Opening Day roster, this is not the same group you’ll see in a few months or even in a few weeks. Garland, Padilla, and Blake all look to return in April, and that doesn’t even account for the possibility that Tim Redding or John Ely is needed for the first 5th starter spot should Garland not be ready.

So here’s what to look out for on the roster front over the first part of the season:

1) Pray, pray, pray for Ivan DeJesus to get off to a good start. The best possible scenario is that he shows solid defense and good on-base skills (I don’t even care about power at this point), and claims the job for his own. That’d not only solve the #2 hitter problem, it’d keep Uribe at 3B, where his strong arm plays better, and push Blake to the bench to be the lefty-mashing corner IF bat he really ought to have been in the first place. When Blake returns, it’ll also be interesting to see if DeJesus has made enough of an impression to avoid being farmed out, and if that means Aaron Miles is instead cut. 

2) That goes double for Xavier Paul. There’s no way you can keep six outfielders on the roster for long, and as I said recently, I prefer Paul to Gibbons. That said, small sample sizes be damned: if Paul gets off to a 1-for-10 start, there’s no way he’s going to survive the inevitable outfielder DFA that’s going to have to happen when the injured begin to return.

3) Hector Gimenez isn’t really going to make it, right? Every year there’s an out-of-nowhere camp darling, and this year it was Gimenez. That’s a nice story, but I’m just not sure I see it working out. The Dodgers have been clear that they don’t think much of him as a catcher, since he barely put on the gear before Navarro got hurt, and since Don Mattingly’s talking about playing Barajas every day in April. If he’s not a catcher, he’s here for his bat, but aside from 94 games in 2010, he’s never been much of a hitter, either (career MiLB numbers: .262/.318/.403). I love the story, and I love the idea, but I predict he’s DFA’d the second Navarro is ready – if not sooner, for A.J. Ellis, who’s probably the best fit of the three.

4) How soon will the bottom of the bullpen churn? I’ve been on record this spring as saying neither Mike MacDougal or Scott Elbert needed to be in the big leagues right now, and it looks like both will be on the club. We all know that the last spots in the bullpen are constantly in motion, so will either or both be able to prove me wrong? Let’s see it, gentlemen. (Update: Ken Rosenthal is reporting that Cormier has indeed made the team. No word yet on who didn’t make it – I assume Elbert – but that doesn’t really change the point of this question at all. Cormier has the same questions to answer as MacDougal or Elbert.)

Oddsmaking For the 25th Spot

March 3, 2011 at 7:01 am | Posted in Aaron Miles, Ivan DeJesus, Juan Castro, Justin Sellers, Xavier Paul | 33 Comments

Buried within the fifth paragraph of a story about Juan Castro‘s improbable homer yesterday, Tony Jackson may have inadvertently broken some news that could impact how the roster comes together (emphasis mine):

Castro is one of four candidates this spring, along with veteran Aaron Miles and prospects Ivan DeJesus and Justin Sellers, for the second utility-infield spot. Although the Dodgers are up to their chins in outfielders, some of whom can also play on the infield, general manager Ned Colletti now says there will be a second utility infielder on the Opening Day roster.

Though we’d long expected that would be the case rather than carrying a sixth outfielder, this is the first time I’ve seen it laid out so explicitly, and that qualifies as news. It would also seem to doom Xavier Paul to the waiver wire or the trade bin, though more on him in a second. If Jackson is right, that means that one of these four guys are almost certain to make the squad when it heads north. Who will it be? Let’s lay some early-March odds on this quartet.

Juan Castro: 65%. I’ve been over Castro what feels like dozens of times in the nearly four years this blog has been around, since he seemingly comes back more often than Brett Favre. I don’t think much of him as a ballplayer, but the man cannot be killed, and that gets him some credit, I guess. Seriously, though, I think I said all I needed to say about Castro when he signed his minor-league deal back in December:

I’m hardly breaking any major news by saying that he can’t hit, because everyone knows he can’t hit. He’s never come within sniffing distance of even a league-average OPS+ of 100, and he’s never actually even hit 90, and that’s what happens when you’ve never had a season where your OPS has topped .678. So Juan Castro is not a major-league quality hitter. We all knew that.

But what I was very surprised to find out is that Castro is one of the worst hitters in the entire history of baseball.

No, really.

Castro has somehow accumulated 2,834 plate appearances over his 16 big league seasons. 1,664 other players since 1901 can say they’ve had as many or more, lead of course by Babe Ruth’s superlative 206 OPS+. Castro, on the other hand, checks in with the 4th-lowest OPS+ of all time. Of all time!

Rk Player OPS+ PA From To Age G H BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Bill Bergen 21 3228 1901 1911 23-33 947 516 .170 .194 .201 .395
2 Hal Lanier 49 3940 1964 1973 21-30 1196 843 .228 .255 .275 .529
3 Tommy Thevenow 51 4484 1924 1938 20-34 1229 1030 .247 .285 .294 .579
4 Juan Castro 55 2834 1995 2010 23-38 1096 597 .228 .268 .327 .595
5 Bobby Wine 55 3467 1960 1972 21-33 1164 682 .215 .264 .286 .550

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/12/2010.

I went on to explain that while his bat is atrocious, he got on for years by virtue of a plus glove… which is no longer plus. Look, you don’t need fancy stats or in-depth analysis to know that Castro was never very good, and at 38, is no longer a major league quality player. You know that.

So why the 65%? Because he’s a known quantity. Ned Colletti has already added him to the club twice during his tenure, and Castro’s .277 average in 2009 is probably seen as useful, even though it was completely empty (he had just five extra-base hits and drew six walks). Despite the declining defensive metrics, I’m guessing his reputation outweighs the facts, and as I joked on Twitter yesterday, the homer off Jeff Francis almost certainly carries more weight than it ought to. If anything, putting him at 65% might be too low.

Aaron Miles, 20%. With the exception of the Dodger history, you can – and I have – say a lot of the same things about Miles as you can about Castro:

No, really; among players who have had as many plate appearances as Miles had since he debuted in 2003, only three players in baseball have been less valuable. It’s a special kind of “not valuable”, though. If you’re simply awful, you don’t get to stick around for that long. Miles has really hit the sweet spot of being bad enough to hurt his teams for years, yet not so bad that he gets outright drummed out of the game. It must be his A+ levels of “grit” and “scrap”.

Rk Player WAR/pos PA G AB H 2B HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Geoff Blum -1.0 2839 902 2592 635 131 59 303 .245 .298 .369 .667
2 Mark Teahen -0.7 2994 753 2713 727 159 63 318 .268 .330 .415 .746
3 Juan Encarnacion -0.3 2653 663 2431 656 136 79 358 .270 .320 .437 .757
4 Aaron Miles 0.6 2574 796 2373 668 93 16 184 .282 .321 .354 .675
5 Shea Hillenbrand 0.7 2647 648 2468 705 139 78 358 .286 .324 .444 .768

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/7/2011But what’s really important here is the last sentence of the dodgers.com story above. Miles is likely competing with Juan Castro and Ivan DeJesus for a second backup infield slot behind Jamey Carroll. Since I don’t believe that DeJesus would get stashed on the big league bench over playing every day in AAA, that means you’re rooting for either the 4th worst player of the last seven years in Miles, or the 4th worst batter in major league history in Castro.

Um, yay. I don’t really see him beating out Castro without a scorching spring, though he does have that creamy veteran pennant-winning goodness Colletti seems to love so much, so…

Ivan DeJesus, 10%. We’ve talked about DeJesus a few times this winter, notably pointing out that he’s fallen completely off most Dodger top prospect lists, nor was he invited to the club’s winter development camp after not getting a September callup last year. Back in October, before Juan Uribe was signed, I looked at whether DeJesus should get a shot at the 2B job and decided that while I wouldn’t totally be against it, it seemed better off to have him in AAA or as utility man.

I’m no longer convinced that DeJesus has what it takes to be an everyday player in the bigs, though it should be noted that he impressed Don Mattingly in the AFL and has put time into learning how to play 3B as well. Still, he’s got an option left, and you know how much the club likes to hold on to as many players as they can. I think there’s also some feeling that after missing all of 2009, it’d be better to have him play every day in the minors rather than riding the big league bench. I’d still prefer him to Castro or Miles, but I can’t argue with that either.

Justin Sellers, 5%. Sellers is someone who I’ve never talked about much around here, and I’ve been meaning to for a while. Despite looking like he’s about 14, his 2010 AAA stats were impressive: .285/.371/.497, with 14 homers. Don’t put too much stock into that, however; while I can’t say for sure because the great minorleaguesplits.com is no longer around, the power displayed is almost certainly a result of the Albuquerque environment, since he had just 17 homers in five previous seasons.

Still, there’s reason to like him. Most of the reports I’ve been able to dig up claim he’s an above-average glove, possibly making him the best defensive choice of these four, and he’s shown improvement in mastering the strike zone. In two seasons as a Dodger minor leaguer, he’s put up OBP of .371 and .360, thanks to a very good K/BB ratio of 115/99. In January, Baseball America gave him the title of “Best Strike Zone Discipline” in the Dodger system, and you don’t need me to remind you how starved this team is for that right now. Though it’s early, he’s off to a good start in the spring, having walked three times without a whiff. Unlike DeJesus, he did attend the winter development camp.

If there’s a knock against him, it’s that he’s been exclusively a middle infielder, though with Jamey Carroll and Juan Uribe both able to handle third base, that wouldn’t seem to be an issue. He’s not a highly touted prospect, clearly, so at 25 and on his third pro organization, I wouldn’t be all that worried about having him riding the major league bench as opposed to playing every day in AAA.

The more I read about Sellers, the more I think he’s my choice, but I still don’t think he’s got any sort of a real shot here. Like DeJesus, he can be sent back to the minors, and with Chin-lung Hu in Queens and Dee Gordon unlikely to start the season at AAA, there’s playing time to be had. Unfortunately, I think we’re stuck with Castro. On the bright side, this roster spot is constantly churning, so hopefully it won’t be for too long.

******

As for Paul, this would seem to sign his death warrant as a Dodger. His only prayer is that he plays out of his head and Jay Gibbons totally chokes his job away, but that seems very unlikely. I can’t imagine that a guy with a .302/.380/.502 AAA line slips through waivers, so I expect him to be shipped off in the second half of March for a Delwyn Young-esque return. It’s too bad, because while he hasn’t been able to establish himself in limited MLB chances, he’s done nothing but produce. Is Gibbons really going to be better? Tony Gwynn? I’m not sure that’s so clear.

Who Tops Your Dodger Prospect List?

January 4, 2011 at 7:21 am | Posted in Ivan DeJesus, Ted Lilly | 21 Comments

It’s a big day if you’re at all interested in the Dodger minor league system, because today is the day that Baseball Prospectus prospect maven Kevin Goldstein put out his Top 11 Dodger list. Along with John Sickels’ list from last week, that’s two of the bigger names in prospect ranking who have weighed in on the Dodgers (Baseball America will do so on January 21), so I figured now would be a good time to compare the two, particularly with a lot of discussion about Ivan DeJesus around here lately.

Goldstein’s piece at BP is behind the paywall, so I’ll only be showing the list here. If you want to see his reasoning and each player’s pluses and minuses, which is really the meat of it, you’ll need to have a BP subscription.

#
Goldstein
Sickels
1
Zach Lee
2
3
4
5
6
Zach Lee
7
8
9
10

Nine players appear on both lists, and both men have the same players in the top six, though ordered differently. The main difference here appears to be Zach Lee, who Goldstein has ranked #1 but is only #6 for Sickels, but I wouldn’t worry too much about that – Sickels admits that he likes him better long-term than Jansen and De La Rosa, but wants to see Lee throw at least one professional pitch first.

Not found on either list? DeJesus. Sickels puts him in the “others of note” section, below the top 20, and though Goldstein also goes to 20, DeJesus’ name doesn’t appear at all. While the Dodgers system has definitely improved since a slight lull brought on by the promotions of Kemp / Kershaw / Billingsley / Loney / Martin / etc., it’s hardly Royals-level deep, so the fact that he’s getting zero respect from any of the prospect guys isn’t a great sign for him.

******

Here’s a fun note from Jack Moore at RotoHardball:

Ted Lilly faced 785 batters in 2010.  218 of them reached base.  Ted Lilly turned the average batter he faced last year into some sick combination of Jose Lopez (.239/.270/.339) and Aaron Hill (.205/.271/.394).

Of course, as Moore goes on to note, while that sounds awesome, Lilly’s high home run rate means that he tends to allow runs even when runners aren’t on base.

******

I did a Q&A over at Giants blog Splashing Pumpkins, which is kind of an awesome name. I ended up going on more of a Matt Kemp rant than I intended, I think.

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