Dodgers Facing Roster Choices as Injured Players Return

At some point before Clayton Kershaw throws the first pitch of tonight’s game against the Astros at Dodger Stadium, the Dodgers are expected to activate Jerry Hairston off the disabled list, since the veteran has reported no trouble with his sore hamstring in two rehab games for Albuquerque. On Sunday & Monday, Matt Kemp & Juan Rivera are expected to begin rehab stints of their own for the Isotopes, with Kemp scheduled to return to the Dodgers on Tuesday against Milwaukee and Rivera, healing far ahead of schedule, potentially returning later in the week. In addition, while we haven’t heard any news about a possible rehab stint for Juan Uribe, the news on his injured wrist is positive, as he’s been cleared to resume baseball activities and is eligible to return on Tuesday as well.

All of a sudden, the walking wounded are beginning to heal, and the Dodgers are going to have some roster decisions to make. If it was as simple as sending down those who were recalled to take the four spots in the first place, then the Dodgers would be bidding farewell to Justin Sellers (for Hairston), Jerry Sands (for Kemp), Elian Herrera (for Uribe), and Scott Van Slyke (for Rivera).

Of course, rarely is it ever that simple, for much has changed since they left, particularly in the middle infield. Mark Ellis is now lost until July due to his leg surgery, Dee Gordon probably would have been back in the minors by now if the injury situation hadn’t destroyed all roster flexibility, and Sellers may have his own injury concerns after being scratched from Wednesday’s lineup with leg numbness. That means the club that these veterans are returning to has no obvious second baseman, a shortstop who may not be up to the task, and could be without the main backup at both positions.

But let’s start with the obvious moves first. When Kemp & Rivera are both back, Van Slyke & Sands are each going back down. Van Slyke’s pinch-hit homer aside, neither has done a whole lot in limited time and neither is served better by riding the bench in the bigs than playing every day in the minors. I’m hardly Rivera’s biggest fan, but he’ll provide the righty alternative at first base that James Loney sorely needs and fit in with Bobby Abreu & Tony Gwynn into a left-field trio that could actually be productive if used properly.

For Hairston, well, you’ve got some infield decisions to make, and that depends in large part on Sellers. If Sellers goes to the disabled list, then he’s an easy swap for Hairston, though that comes with the downside of having to rely on Gordon (who may not be ready) and Hairston (who looked awful there in camp) at shortstop. That’d leave you with some combination of Hairston & Adam Kennedy at third and Ivan De Jesus & Herrera at second, with some mixing between the two groups. When Uribe returns, De Jesus would almost certainly be farmed out, since Herrera has played surprisingly well in his short time with the team.

If Sellers can avoid the DL, De Jesus would go down today for Hairston, probably leaving Herrera as the primary second baseman. When Uribe returns, you could send down Herrera (if you need to keep Sellers for shortstop or if he can’t keep up his hot start), or even Gordon, if he’s still struggling.

Honestly, I’d really like to see what happens if De Jesus would ever be given a real shot at every day play, and the absence of Ellis would seem to be a prime opportunity for that. But there seems to be almost no route for that to happen, not with the presence of at least five others who can spot at second and the organization’s complete reluctance to play him, calling him up only after squeezing the non-roster Herrera onto the 40-man.

Much depends on Sellers’ health, Gordon’s play, and whether this club can actually get through a full week without having to deal with another injury. But there’s always a bright side: the more healthy players you have, the less chance of having to see Aaron Miles again.

Will the Second Wild Card Hurt the Dodgers More Than It Helps?


If we learned anything from last night’s 2-1 loss to the Giants – other than that Don Mattingly needs to be smacked in the nose with a rolled-up newspaper like a bad dog every time he tries to bunt – it’s that despite all the hysteria over Javy Guerra lately, the bullpen is not this team’s problem. It’s the offense. The Dodgers weren’t facing Matt Cain, or Madison Bumgarner, or Tim Lincecum. They were facing retread Ryan Vogelsong, and the best they could manage was a single run.

This isn’t a surprise, of course. We knew all winter that this team was going to struggle to score runs beyond Matt Kemp & Andre Ethier, and that was without even knowing what a nice find A.J. Ellis would be. But you know, I was okay with that. I’d looked at 2012 as a transitional year, one which would be about treading water while the new ownership group could get situated and begin to right some of the wrongs of the McCourt era next winter. Feeling that the team probably wouldn’t be championship material, I never thought that it made a lot of sense to mortgage the future to try to make a quick impact on a roster that probably didn’t have the horses to get it done.

But now the Dodgers are off to a hot start that will keep them in contention for the division title barring a complete collapse, and even if they do get overtaken by Arizona or someone else for the NL West, the addition this year of a second wild card means that it’s nearly impossible that they won’t be at least on the periphery of a playoff spot. (ESPN currently has them at a 70.7% chance to make the playoffs, one way or another.) I tend to think that getting that second wild card is something of a dummy prize, since all it earns you is one game, but it’s better than not having that game and you know front office types looking to defend their jobs will point to their team “making the playoffs”. For a team like the Dodgers, having that extra avenue to the playoffs is a clear help.

The unintended consequence of that, however, is that the second wild card will keep many more teams thinking they have hope deeper into the summer, to the point where the July 31 trading deadline – always one of my favorite times of the year – could be decimated by a lack of clubs willing to admit they’re out of the race and ready to sell. And while that will affect every contender looking to add, it could be particularly damaging to the Dodgers, who are currently looking at a shocking four starters with an OPS of 76+ or below – Dee Gordon, James Loney, Juan Rivera, & Juan Uribe. Gordon probably won’t be going anywhere, but the struggles of Loney & Uribe have been well-documented; #RBImachine jokes or not, Rivera’s awful .247/.276/.358 line is even worse than I thought it was.

With little hope those three will turn it around and without immediate help coming from the minors – I like to think we’ll see both Scott Van Slyke & Jerry Sands at some point, though neither is likely to be an instant savior – the Dodgers are going to need to look externally to fill those holes. And that’s where the second wild card becomes an impediment; for all of the fan love for David Wright, for example, the Mets are 17-13 and desperately trying to hold on to their dwindling fan base. In the past, they may have thought they had no chance to beat out Philadelphia & Atlanta & Cincinnati & Arizona and whomever else for the lone wild card; now, they’re likely to hold out much longer before admitting they’re out, possibly beyond July.

In fact, there are only a few teams at this ridiculously early date who are clearly falling behind. In the AL, neither Boston nor Anaheim seem likely to be sellers in July; Minnesota, Kansas City, & Seattle might be, but what they have at the 1B/3B/LF vortex of suck the Dodgers have are either not worth pursuing (I’m looking at you, Chone Figgins & Danny Valencia) or not likely to be moved (Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon in Kansas City). In the NL, the bottom three teams feature two division rivals in San Diego & Colorado along with the Cubs, who can offer either the bloated corpse of Alfonso Soriano or the potential of overpaying for the hot start of minor league lifer Bryan LaHair.

That’s hardly a complete list, because we don’t know what the standings will be in July; it’d seem likely that teams like Houston, Pittsburgh, & the White Sox could be joining them at the bottom. Still, there’s a reason that teams are willing to sell at the deadline, and that’s because the players they have aren’t winning – I don’t look forward to a potential bidding war over Carlos Lee & Garrett Jones.

The Dodgers are finally owned by a group who seems to have the money to operate them properly. But it takes more than money to see improvement, and between the demand far outweighing supply and the less-than-stacked Dodger minor league system, finding outside reinforcements for a 2012 playoff run may be a tall order.

Juan Rivera, RBI Machine

Ken Gurnick, Dodgers.com, Sept 19, 2011:

More obvious alternatives for left field are rookie Jerry Sands and veteran Juan Rivera, the second-half RBI machine eligible for free agency and corresponding salary.

Ken Gurnick, Dodgers.com, Sept 29, 2011:

Second-half offensive improvement after the bargain addition of RBI machine Juan Rivera has convinced management that jumping a few slots in the standings is doable, especially after watching Arizona go from worst to first.

Shaun Garrison, DodgersRumors.com, Oct 4, 2011:

Juan Rivera shocked a lot of folks after he was acquired by the Dodgers. He turned into an RBI machine and helped the Dodgers to a strong second half.

Ken Gurnick, Dodgers.com, Oct 29, 2011:

The platoon of Marcus Thames and Jay Gibbons failed, but Rivera was salvaged and turned into an RBI machine.

Ken Gurnick, Dodgers.com, Dec 31, 2011:

The second-half offensive improvement after the bargain addition of RBI machine Juan Rivera has convinced management that jumping a few slots in the standings is doable, especially after watching Arizona go from worst to first.

Jorge Ortiz, USA Today, Jan 5, 2012:

Juan Rivera was an RBI machine after arriving from the Toronto Blue Jays, making teams pay for pitching around Matt Kemp, but it wouldn’t be realistic to expect that from him for a whole season.

Steven Silva, FanFeedr, March 13, 2012:

Combine that along with 2011 second-half RBI machine Juan Rivera, the young, exciting, speedster Dee Gordon and a complete season from the usually reliable James Loney, the Dodgers may not even miss the near-miss they had when Detroit rashly signed Prince Fielder to replace the injured Victor Martinez.

Ken Gurnick, Dodgers.com, April 2, 2012:

As if a switch was flipped, Juan Rivera was claimed at the All-Star break and became an RBI machine, while James Loney suddenly found his stroke again.

Sheesh. Sorry, Ken.

Juan Rivera’s Success Is Entirely Dependent on Dee Gordon, Mark Ellis, and Matt Kemp


When we look back on Juan Rivera‘s 2012, how are we going to define success? Will it be WAR? wOBA? The team’s win/loss record? For me, it might be as simple as “is he going to get through the season without being DFA’d”, since I’ve been notably down on the idea of expecting him to be some sort of offensive force based on the one good month he had in 2011.

Don Mattingly knows, and he told Mark Whicker all about it, as recounted by Steve Dilbeck:

“The guy we had at the end is the guy we are going to need,” Mattingly said. “But then we needAndre [Ethier] to be healthy, we need Juan to be a run producer, more of a 80-90 RBI guy. We’re going to need all that for us to be in it.”

At first I thought: “He’s actually expecting Juan Uribe to hit up to 90 runs batted in?” It’s never happened in his 11-year career.

But recognizing that Mattingly might be manager-like optimistic but is also rational, I then realized he was talking about Juan Rivera.

Now, Rivera has never had 90 RBIs in a single season, either. His best two marks were  85 in 2006 and 88 in 2009, both for the Angels.

Of course, we know better than that, right? If Rivera ends up with 80-90 RBI, that’s not going to tell us anything about how productive he was this season. What that would do is tell us a whole lot about how productive the guys hitting directly ahead of him – likely to be Dee Gordon, Mark Ellis, Matt Kemp, and (sometimes) Andre Ethier – are, because that’s all RBI really is. It’s a measure of how often your teammates hook you up with runners to drive in, and little more.

Need some examples? In 1990, Joe Carter was 30 years old and playing his only season in San Diego. He hit an abysmal .232/.290/.391, good for an 85 OPS+. He was worth -1.4 rWAR. On both offense and defense, he was actively hurting the Padres for most of the season. Yet since he was hitting cleanup behind Bip Roberts (.375 OBP) and two Hall of Famers in Roberto Alomar (.340 OBP) & Tony Gwynn (.357 OBP) he collected 115 RBI, which even garnered him some downballot MVP support, despite doing little to put wins on the board.

Hell, Rivera has seen this up close. As a member of the 2004 Montreal Expos, he watched the execrable Tony Batista hit .241/.272/.455, good for a mere 80 OPS+ and 0.0 rWAR. Though Batista did hit 32 homers, he also had the pleasure of spending most of the year hitting behind Brad Wilkerson (.374 OBP) and Jose Vidro (.367 OBP). Despite the power numbers, Batista didn’t play in the bigs in 2005 and was out of baseball at 33 after being released by the Twins and Nationals. Rivera, on the other hand, had a very nice .304/.364/.465 line in the last season of baseball in Quebec, but had only 49 RBI because he spent his season batting behind… wait for it… Tony Batista.

So yeah, I hope Rivera gets his 90 RBI too. But that’s not because it’ll mean a damn thing about how Rivera is doing, it’s because if he does, that means Gordon & Ellis are doing their job and getting on base. If they do, and Kemp, Ethier, & Rivera have men on to drive in, this offense could actually show some life. If they don’t, we’re going to be seeing a lot of 2-1 losses, and Juan Rivera’s RBI total is going to be the least of our problems.

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Speaking of Rivera, he’s gone one less competitor for playing time, since Jerry Sands was officially sent to the minor-league camp today. This was a move we’d been expecting for some time, so it doesn’t come as much of a surprise. Sands had been struggling so badly in camp that I can’t even really argue with this, especially since Sands himself has said that he’s had trouble keeping his rebuilt swing consistent. He’ll go to Triple-A, hopefully mash for a while, and then return at some point in May when Rivera gets hurt (or doesn’t have enough RBI, I suppose).

That means we’re down to Josh Fields, Justin Sellers, Trent Oeltjen, Cory Sullivan, and Luis Cruz for that final spot. (Fields started in place of Juan Uribe at third base today because of, well, this.) I refuse to believe that Cruz has a prayer, and Oeltjen & Sullivan seem unlikely as well. It really comes down to Fields or Sellers, and that probably depends on whether the club thinks that Jerry Hairston‘s throwing problems are behind him. I think the team would probably prefer to hang onto Fields, though Sellers has the advantage of already being on the 40-man roster.

In other roster news, Blake Hawksworth was moved to the 60-day DL to make room on the 40-man roster for Jamey Wright. Hawksworth has been having difficulty in his recovery from elbow surgery and hasn’t even begun throwing yet, so it’ll be quite some time before we see him back in Los Angeles.

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Don’t forget that this is a big, big week for the ownership process, with Frank McCourt due to name his selection by Sunday. MLB is currently conducting a call to approve the three remaining groups, with each expected to pass as little more than a formality. Once they do, McCourt will begin his selection process tomorrow, and we could really learn the winner at any point after that. This ESPN report notes that each of the bids (between $1.4b and $1.6b) do include the parking lots, which is fantastic, though note that just because they’re asking for them does not mean McCourt is obligated to include them.

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Last, but certainly not least, congratulations to Eric Stephen of TrueBlueLA for getting approved to have a full media credential this year. Not only is it richly deserved on his part, but it’s also good to see the Dodgers being so forward-thinking as to even consider giving a blogger that sort of access.

Money For Nothing, and Hits For Free

It’s 2012, and I’m referencing a song mostly known for having a video that shows what people in 1985 thought 1997 would look like. Deal with it.

After the surprising spending spree that kicked off the offseason, one question no one’s really been able to answer adequately is, “are the Dodgers really even any better offensively for it?” Most of the articles I’ve seen on that topic start off with “if Andre Ethier & Juan Uribe return to form, and if James Loney hits like he did in the second half and not the first…” which is all well and good, except that none of those three are new acquisitions and their performances were going to be the most important no matter how many other declining veterans were brought on. For the approximately $22m the Dodgers spent on six offensive signings this winter (other than Matt Kemp‘s extension), does it improve them at all over last season?

Over at Beyond the Box Score, David Fung takes a graphical look using wRC (weighted runs created) and wRAA (weighted runs above average), along with 2012 Bill James projections. Remember, this is talking about offense only.

click to embiggen

Fung isn’t including returnees Juan Rivera and Tony Gwynn, as I would have, but they wouldn’t change the overall impression that for all of the money spent, the offense isn’t markedly improved, with the newcomers seemingly unlikely to provide more offense than the departing Jamey Carroll, Rod Barajas, and Casey Blake. Mark Ellis / Adam Kennedy probably won’t contribute all that much more than  Carroll / Aaron Miles (if even as much), and while I think he’s far too optimistic on Matt Treanor‘s projected 87 OPS+, I’ll take the over on A.J. Ellis at 69, so that’ll probably even out.

This also doesn’t take into account the terrifying prospect of a full season of Rivera in left field, since after being lousy for five of six months last season, he’s not exactly high on my optimism list as he turns 34. The damage could be limited by allowing Jerry Sands a healthy amount of playing time in Rivera’s stead, though whether that’s realistic remains to be seen. (By the way, who among us wouldn’t have traded a fallen top prospect and a middling pitching prospect, say Chris Withrow & Josh Wall or Cole St. Clair, to the White Sox for Carlos Quentin, as the Padres just did? Quentin probably can’t play defense any better than Rivera can, but he’s at least under 30 with great power and good plate discipline, and at ~$7m in his final year of arbitration wouldn’t have cost all that much more than what Rivera will get.)

With the estimated offensive production coming in not much better than the production going out, the hope for success, as it always has been, rests on those returning. Uribe has to be better. Loney has to be August/September Loney. Ethier has to be healthy and productive (which I believe he will). Dee Gordon has to keep improving. Kemp has to repeat or come close to repeating his stellar 2011. If a majority of those questions don’t land on the right side for the Dodgers, their season is sunk.

That being the case, it’s worth repeating: why spend tens of millions on older, mediocre role players unlikely to bring much improvement?