Juan Rivera « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness

Money For Nothing, and Hits For Free

January 2, 2012 at 11:26 am | Posted in Juan Rivera, Mark Ellis, Matt Treanor | 29 Comments

It’s 2012, and I’m referencing a song mostly known for having a video that shows what people in 1985 thought 1997 would look like. Deal with it.

After the surprising spending spree that kicked off the offseason, one question no one’s really been able to answer adequately is, “are the Dodgers really even any better offensively for it?” Most of the articles I’ve seen on that topic start off with “if Andre Ethier & Juan Uribe return to form, and if James Loney hits like he did in the second half and not the first…” which is all well and good, except that none of those three are new acquisitions and their performances were going to be the most important no matter how many other declining veterans were brought on. For the approximately $22m the Dodgers spent on six offensive signings this winter (other than Matt Kemp‘s extension), does it improve them at all over last season?

Over at Beyond the Box Score, David Fung takes a graphical look using wRC (weighted runs created) and wRAA (weighted runs above average), along with 2012 Bill James projections. Remember, this is talking about offense only.

click to embiggen

Fung isn’t including returnees Juan Rivera and Tony Gwynn, as I would have, but they wouldn’t change the overall impression that for all of the money spent, the offense isn’t markedly improved, with the newcomers seemingly unlikely to provide more offense than the departing Jamey Carroll, Rod Barajas, and Casey Blake. Mark Ellis / Adam Kennedy probably won’t contribute all that much more than Carroll / Aaron Miles (if even as much), and while I think he’s far too optimistic on Matt Treanor‘s projected 87 OPS+, I’ll take the over on A.J. Ellis at 69, so that’ll probably even out.

This also doesn’t take into account the terrifying prospect of a full season of Rivera in left field, since after being lousy for five of six months last season, he’s not exactly high on my optimism list as he turns 34. The damage could be limited by allowing Jerry Sands a healthy amount of playing time in Rivera’s stead, though whether that’s realistic remains to be seen. (By the way, who among us wouldn’t have traded a fallen top prospect and a middling pitching prospect, say Chris Withrow & Josh Wall or Cole St. Clair, to the White Sox for Carlos Quentin, as the Padres just did? Quentin probably can’t play defense any better than Rivera can, but he’s at least under 30 with great power and good plate discipline, and at ~$7m in his final year of arbitration wouldn’t have cost all that much more than what Rivera will get.)

With the estimated offensive production coming in not much better than the production going out, the hope for success, as it always has been, rests on those returning. Uribe has to be better. Loney has to be August/September Loney. Ethier has to be healthy and productive (which I believe he will). Dee Gordon has to keep improving. Kemp has to repeat or come close to repeating his stellar 2011. If a majority of those questions don’t land on the right side for the Dodgers, their season is sunk.

That being the case, it’s worth repeating: why spend tens of millions on older, mediocre role players unlikely to bring much improvement?

Let’s Just Stop With the David Wright Talk Right Now

November 7, 2011 at 10:29 am | Posted in David Wright, Juan Rivera | 42 Comments

Over the past few weeks, we’ve seen a lot of suggestions from a variety of different sources about how to improve the 2012 Dodgers, and one hole that always pops up is the enormous Juan Uribe-sized one at third base. Since Uribe can’t be trusted to perform, the hot corner is a largely barren one in the Dodger minor league system, and giving a huge long-term contract to Aramis Ramirez is hardly brilliant, people generally seem to be settling on trying to trade for David Wright, who is reportedly available for the right offer.

That’s where the conversation begins, and that’s where it should end, because as much fun as it might be to think of “Superstar David Wright” in your lineup, it’s neither plausible nor even advisable. As you’d expect from a player viewed as a cornerstone of the Mets franchise, the return to extract him would need to be sizable:

A National League executive who has spoken with Sandy Alderson recently told The News last week that the GM would have to be “bowled over” to deal Wright before next season, and a Mets person predicted that Wright’s situation would remain “status quo” until then.

Remember, the Mets don’t look likely to contend in 2012, and probably not even 2013. That means the type of deals I’ve been seeing floating around – i.e., the ones built around Andre Ethier or James Loney – are unlikely at best and laughable at worst. The Mets reportedly would want a high-end centerfielder and two good pitching prospects to even consider it, and while we can argue about how much value Chris Withrow and Ethan Martin still have (or don’t), the Dodgers definitely don’t have the centerfielder and shouldn’t be even thinking about a Zach Lee deal.

Even if the Mets somehow were convinced to take Dodger prospects for Wright over the likely-superior offers of other squads, you’d still have to figure out how to pay him. The Mets are considering moving him only to build for the future; they’re almost certainly not so motivated that they would eat a great deal of his remaining salary, which is $15m for 2012 and a $16m 2013 option that Wright would likely void if traded. Considering that the Dodgers need to acquire at least two starting pitchers and probably a catcher & an infielder, there just doesn’t seem to be room in the budget for that. Granted, I managed to find room for Prince Fielder in my 2012 plan, but that assumed Loney and his ~$6m would be non-tendered – unlikely to really happen – and Fielder is the kind of difference-maker you move pieces around for, which leads us to the main issue:

David Wright just isn’t as good as you think he is.

Oh, sure, he’s an upgrade over Uribe, and with the state of third base being what it is, he’s a better-than-average player who probably still has some good years in him. But he’s not the super-stud who put up OPS marks north of .900 every year from age 22-25. Since he peaked with a .420 wOBA in 2007, he’s been in decline in every year since – .397 (2008), .368 (2009), .364 (2010), .342 (2011). That’s still a solid player, yet not someone living up to his elite perception, as Mike Newman of Fangraphs explains:

And while I can somewhat buy the park being a factor in Wright’s diminishing returns, outfield fences have little to do with Wright’s -31.1 UZR over the past three seasons.

Even with Wright’s poor fielding, he has still been able to accumulate 9.5 WAR between 2009 and 2011. However, this leaves him sandwiched between Dodgers Casey Blake and Phillies Placido Polanco amongst true third baseman. This isn’t to say I’d prefer either to David Wright, but both Polanco and Blake earned 5.25 million in 2011 while Wright received more than two-and-a-half times as much.

And while both the Phillies and Dodgers are now looking for upgrades at the position, Wright is owed 15 million in 2012 before possibly hitting free agency the first time on the wrong side of his prime. Sure, this assessment may seem like I’m piling on the doom and gloom, but David Wright is a long ways away from the 27-plus WAR player who many viewed as a future Hall of Famer as recently as 2008.

Again, that’s still better than Uribe or anyone else the Dodgers are likely to come up with for third base in 2012. But is it worth the outlay in prospects, dollars and risk the Dodgers would have to accommodate for a one-year rental? I’m having a hard time saying that it is, so let’s focus our energies elsewhere.

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Over at Baseball Prospectus, Ben Lindbergh offers some additional thoughts on the Juan Rivera signing:

Compared to what went before him, Rivera probably looked a lot like Manny Ramirez in Don Mattingly’s eyes, but the reality was a lot less exciting. The average NL left fielder posted an OPS of 748 last season. Rivera managed only a 740 mark in Los Angeles, which—given that his OPS is an almost-identical 743 over his last four seasons—is about the best the Dodgers can hope for from the right-handed hitter, who’ll turn 34 next July. He’s always been weak against same-handed pitchers, and his work in the field does nothing to make up for his offensive inadequacies–that he’s spent significant time as a designated hitter and first baseman over the past two seasons should give you some idea of the state of his outfield skills—so the total package is that of a player who can’t be counted on to be worth more than a win. Does that sound like something that can’t be had for less than $4.5 million to anyone but LA?

Last week, R.J. Anderson observed that Chien-Ming Wang’s $4 million deal (plus incentives) was way out of line with the make-good contracts awarded to injury-prone starters during the 2010-2011 offseason. Rivera’s contract appears to be inflated by a similar amount compared to last winter’s comparable corner outfielders, such as Reed Johnson ($900,000), Marcus Thames ($1 million, and from LA, no less), Andruw Jones ($1.5 million), Matt Diaz ($2.125 million), and Jeff Francoeur ($2.5 million).

Are Wang and Rivera isolated outliers who happened to ink their deals early, or are we seeing the opening salvoes of a market gone mad? The next few weeks should tell us whether teams have dismissed concerns about the economy and decided en masse to pay more per win. If not, it will be too late for the Dodgers to get Frank McCourt’s money back. While that isn’t something that will cost their fans much sleep in itself, the knowledge that their team—despite ostensibly being on a limited budget—probably paid more than twice as much as it had to for a role player instead of using the cash to procure an experienced catcher or another useful commodity could keep them tossing and turning till spring training.

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2012 is also the 50th anniversary of Dodger Stadium, and the team will be wearing commemorative patches for the occasion. Roberto at Vin Scully is My Homeboy has a preview.

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Finally, and I think I’ve mentioned this before, M.Brown of the wonderful Left Field Pavilion is sponsoring a Dodger blog charity softball tournament on February 11 in West Covina, CA. (I think Roberto has two full teams already!) I won’t be there, but it’s for a good cause, so feel free to join in on the fun.

Juan Rivera Turned One Good Month Into $4.5m

November 3, 2011 at 6:48 am | Posted in Juan Rivera | 98 Comments

Not to break up all the fun over the search for a new Dodger owner, but that’s unlikely to be resolved for months and there’s still baseball business at hand. Remember the other day when word came out that Juan Rivera was likely to sign a $4m contract for 2012 with a club option for 2013, and we were all a bit less than thrilled with that?

Uh, yeah:

The Los Angeles Dodgers have agreed to a one-year, $4.5 million contract with outfielder Juan Rivera, major-league sources told FOXSports.com.

The deal, which is pending a physical exam, will pay Rivera a $4 million base salary during the 2012 season. It includes a $4 million club option for 2013 (with a $500,000 buyout) and $500,000 in performance bonuses each year, one source said.

Oh, good. As though just giving him $4m wasn’t enough of an overpay, now it’s $4.5m guaranteed (including the option buyout) and the potential for $5m with performance incentives. Let’s not forget that Rivera made $5.25m with Toronto last year and was so bad that they flat out DFA’d him in July; I wish I knew of some sort of database that would allow me to query for “most money made in the season following a DFA”, because this has to be up there.

While I’ve said that I’m okay with Rivera on this club as a OF/1B platoon bat against lefties, no one pays that much for someone to be a backup. That means that Rivera is almost certainly going to be your starting left fielder, and that pushes Jerry Sands to AAA unless there’s an unlikely Andre Ethier trade in the works. That’s a guy who didn’t even make Keith Law’s top 50 free agents list and who had a total 2011 OPS of .701, worse than Jamey Carroll and Casey Blake‘s marks last year. While it’s true that he was far better with the Dodgers than he was in Toronto, that’s hardly a high barrier to clear, and it appears that once again, the Dodgers have been sucked in by a favorable first impression that the new aquisition was unable to maintain. (Yes, I’m looking at you, Rod Barajas.)

Rivera’s first 31 games with Dodgers
115 PA .327/.365/.481 .846 OPS .364 BABIP

Rivera’s second 31 games with Dodgers
131 PA .226/.305/.339 .664 OPS .240 BABIP

His true talent level is probably somewhere in between, but unfortunately that’s not what you want from a starting corner outfielder or someone you’re paying nearly $5m to. Did anyone really think that you absolutely had to lock up Rivera during the exclusive negotiating period before a line of other teams drove dump trucks full of cash to his house? There’s this narrative going around that Rivera was some sort of “savior” or “RBI machine”, and while his contributions were welcomed, the facts just don’t fit that story.

As Eric Stephen rightly points out, Rivera’s 2011 profiles very similarly to Marcus Thames‘ 2010 – after which Thames was signed for only $1m – and we can see how well that turned out. Perhaps if Roch Kubatko’s completely unsubstantiated and never going to happen report that the Orioles would have interest in Ned Colletti is true, we can make them take Rivera (…and Matt Guerrier, and Juan Uribe) as compensation?

Report: Dodgers Close to Signing Juan Rivera (Updated)

November 1, 2011 at 6:20 pm | Posted in Juan Rivera | 32 Comments

Los Angeles Times:

Juan Rivera and the Dodgers are closing in on a one-year contract that would include a team option for 2013, according to baseball sources who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the deal hasn’t been finalized. The deal could be completed later this week.

No surprise here – Rivera was roundly hailed as a savior when he replaced Marcus Thames in July, and I’ve never thought that he wouldn’t be back in 2012, though it’s probably not the route I would have taken. The fact that it’s apparently not two guaranteed years is promising, though the value of this contract depends entirely on the dollars and his role. Ideally we’re not talking about more than $2m or so, because he made $5.25m last year and got DFA’d by Toronto, so he deserves a pay cut.

Almost as important – and obviously it’s far too early to know the answer to this – is what his role would be. Remember, for all of the accolades he received for merely being better than Thames (and Jay Gibbons, etc.), he only hit .274/.333/.406 – not bad, but hardly numbers you want from a starting corner outfielder. The idea of “Juan Rivera, starting left fielder” isn’t exactly how I want to get this offseason started. That said, he does still produce against lefties (even though he absolutely cannot hit righties), and there’s definitely a spot on this team for a platoon bat to help spot for Andre Ethier and/or James Loney. Along with being possible insurance for Jerry Sands, you could do worse. I suppose, anyway; Ned Colletti doesn’t exactly have a sterling track record when it comes to repeat engagements from low-cost mid-season veteran pickups from the year before.

Update: The deal is reportedly for $4m, per Ken Gurnick. I suppose there was no way I wasn’t going to be disappointed by this, but is there really anyone who thinks this deal is going to be worth it? I’d say there’s just about an equal chance that he’s DFA’d by July than there is that he actually earns that money. Oh, and Clayton Kershaw, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier won Gold Gloves, which is such a flawed award that I can’t even bring myself to speak about it. It’s just the height of lunacy that anyone puts any stock into the Gold Glove, though you can all prepare for Steve Lyons to be about 40 times as insufferable next year.

MSTI’s 2011 in Review: Right Field

October 21, 2011 at 11:20 am | Posted in Andre Ethier, Juan Rivera, Trent Oeltjen | 20 Comments

Andre Ethier (C-)
.292/.368/.421 .789 11hr 1.3 WAR

Andre Ethier started out his season with some completely unnecessary public comments, complaining about his contract status the day before the season started and wondering if he might actually get non-tendered. (Spoiler alert: no.) He ended his season with another round of public controversy, claiming that the Dodgers were forcing him to play on an injured knee before quickly backpedaling, and then undergoing knee surgery anyway. In between making a fool of himself in the papers, he came within one game of setting a franchise record with a 30-game hitting streak, yet ultimately ended up with a less-than-satisfying season as his power deserted him.

Really, most of the season was a disappointment after his outstanding April, wasn’t it? I say that in something of a positive way; other than his lousy August and September, this is a generally good season from an average outfielder. But we expect so much more from Ethier that just being “generally good” isn’t really good enough.

Split	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
April/March	121	41	10	3	13	21	.380	.446	.556	1.002	.452
May	102	23	2	2	14	17	.261	.363	.352	.715	.304
June	110	30	8	2	7	24	.300	.345	.440	.785	.368
July	100	23	5	3	9	20	.261	.340	.420	.760	.303
August	99	22	4	1	12	17	.253	.343	.333	.677	.304
Sept/Oct	19	3	1	0	3	4	.188	.316	.250	.566	.250

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

The hope here is that much of this can be explained by injury, and I’m not just talking about the knee problem that ended his season early. In early May, Ethier missed a game with soreness in his throwing elbow, an issue that appeared to be altering his throwing mechanics even a week later. Two weeks after that, he crashed into the right field wall in Chicago, suffering what was termed at the time “a right elbow contusion, lower right back contusion and sprained left big toe”, costing him much of the next week. But it didn’t completely ruin his game, because going through the archives I can see that even in to June and July I would be continuously pointing out things like “Kemp & Ethier went 6-9, everyone else went 3-32″, performance (along, likely, with the well-publicized hitting streak) that got him added to the All-Star team as a injury replacement for Shane Victorino.

Even still, I wasn’t quite sure what to make of his first half:

Andre Ethier (B+) (.311/.383/.463 9hr 1.9 WAR)
Ethier, without question, represented one of the more difficult grades to give out. 30 game hitting streak? Yes, please. .383 OBP? Delicious. While his OPS is nearly 40 points off his 2008 career high, the lower offensive environment this year means that it’s good for a career-best 141 OPS+, so hooray for that. No, he’s not hitting lefties (.242/.282/.368), but he never hits lefties, so that’s not much of a surprise. All in all, it’s been a very solid year from one of the two main offensive threats this club has.

Yet… it feels like something is missing. Prior to his two-homer day yesterday, he’d hit just seven dingers, and his SLG is down for the third year in a row. It’s certainly not enough of a problem to criticize him, hence the good grade, and perhaps yesterday’s outburst was the start of something new. I just can’t help shaking the feeling that is very unpopular among the casual fans who love him so much: Ethier is a very good player, but not a superstar. We’ll need to keep that in mind when his contract is up. I don’t want to get too down on him, though: right now, he’s the second best player on this team, and that in itself is quite valuable.

Yet as the knee began to bother him more, his performance on the field suffered, hitting just .252/.339/.333 after the break, before squawking about it to T.J. Simers and finally going under the knife. To be honest, this all makes me think he’s going to have a big year in 2012, since he’ll (presumably) be healthy after two years of troublesome-but-not-debilitating injuries and headed into a contract year, he’s likely to have a large chip on his shoulder. You know, larger, than the usual one. But can we please, please get him a righty handcuff? I’ve been beating this drum for years, and it never seems to happen; once again, Ethier’s numbers against righties in 2011 (.321/.410/.468) were far ahead of his stats against lefties (.220/.258/.305), just like they are every year. Ethier won’t like being benched against lefties, but to be honest, I don’t care: playing him against LHP is simply giving away outs.

Juan Rivera (A)
.274/.333/.406 .739 5hr 0.7 WAR

This, I admit, may not be the most flattering photo I’ve used in this series. But Rivera is crushing a dinger in this shot, and I wanted to use at least one guy wearing a Brooklyn throwback.

These days, there’s not a whole lot of moves that come as a complete and total surprise with no rumors preceding it, but the acquisition of Rivera from Toronto certainly falls under that category. At the time, expectations were small, since he wasn’t doing a ton with Toronto before being DFA’d; he was merely expected to be slightly better than Marcus Thames and be a righty partner for James Loney at first base:

First off, let’s not worry too much about the player to be named – Rivera was DFA’d himself on July 3 and would have cleared waivers in another day or so, so it’s not like the Jays had a whole lot of leverage there. On the field, this seems like a tiny upgrade; Rivera wasn’t doing a whole lot for Toronto at .243/.305/.360, but it’s still better than Thames for the Dodgers at .197/.243/.333 – when Thames was even healthy enough to play. Against LHP, Rivera was doing what Thames was supposed to do, hitting .327/.400/.509 in 65 PA. And while Thames is an atrocious fielder, Rivera has been a plus defender at times in the past, even playing 40 games in center field throughout his career (though he hasn’t started there since 2006). That’s probably no longer the case at 33, but at least there’s some positive history there. He’s also got some experience at first base, which is more valuable than you think, because with Casey Blake on the shelf, the Dodgers don’t have a viable righty option to pair with James Loney. Rivera should be expected to now play 1B against most lefties.

In the short term, this deal probably makes the team better than they were this morning. Not by much, perhaps, but that’s good enough.

Well, that was one of the bigger understatements of the year, because Rivera was outstanding after coming to the Dodgers, in large part helping to fuel the second-half turnaround. Well, let’s clarify that: a 105 OPS+ is nice but not stellar, yet his .274/.333/.406 line is outstanding compared to the garbage he was replacing, and coming at essentially zero cost he provided a good deal of value. So good on Ned Colletti for upgrading from Thames, and good on Rivera for showing he still has some life in him.

What’s next, though? I find that people forget that Toronto completely gave up on him halfway through the year, and it’s not like Toronto is run by people who can’t identify value; he also hit just .221/.297/.308 after August 25 and offered little value in the field. Yet the narrative reads that he’s an “RBI machine” and a “savior” of the season, so don’t be at all surprised if he’s back in 2012, even though the track record of return engagements from midseason veteran acquisitions is mixed at best in the Colletti era. For the right price, that could be fine; he’s still effective against lefties, with a large platoon split, and with Ethier and James Loney around being completely unable to hit southpaws there’s definitely a need in Los Angeles for that kind of role. He’ll just need to take quite a paycut from his 2011 salary of $5.25m (I wouldn’t go above $2m at most), accept a one-year deal, and not be looked at as an every day player.

Trent Oeltjen (inc.)
.197/.322/.324 .646 2hr 0.4 WAR

It dawns on me that for the second year in a row, Oeltjen gets a glamour shot rather than an action one. This is not simply because I’m enraptured by his Aussie charm, but because “sitting around rather than playing” is basically the best way to sum up Oeltjen’s 2011, where he was on the team continuously from June 9 through the end of the season but made just about no lasting impact.

Of course, that’s what happenens when you’re given just three starts over the final 69 games of the season, isn’t it? The difference was clear; in 12 starts (not the greatest sample size, I will admit), he hit .256/.380/.462, while in 49 games as a pinch-hitter and defensive replacement, he hit .125/.243/.156. That’s a problem he needs to sort out if he plans on having much of a career, since it’s certainly not like any team is going to just hand him a starting job, though it’s possible there’s a little more there than we’ve seen. Oeltjen still has options remaining and I imagine his 2012 will look much like his 2011, with time spent both at AAA and the bigs, filling out some team’s roster.

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Next! Clayton Kershaw is a god! Jon Garland‘s durability only goes so far! And Nathan Eovaldi arrives ahead of schedule! It’s starting pitchers, part 1!

Kershaw Good But Not Good Enough As Dodger Winning Streak Ends

September 4, 2011 at 2:21 pm | Posted in Blake Hawksworth, Clayton Kershaw, Juan Rivera | 41 Comments

Clayton Kershaw stuck out ten Braves today without walking a single batter, the third time in his career he’s struck out double digits without allowing a walk. He allowed just two earned runs over seven innings, not at all helped by Aaron Miles‘ poor throw to second on what might have been an inning-ending double play ball before any runs had scored, and even chipped in two hits of his own at the plate.

By almost anyone’s standards, it was an excellent outing… and yet, it still felt disappointing. That’s how high our expectations are for Kershaw right now, because any time he pitches and the Dodgers don’t come away with a win, it feels wrong, even if it’s not entirely his fault. Through six scoreless, he was nearly untouchable as the Dodgers built a 3-0 lead on Matt Kemp‘s 32nd homer of the year, a three-run job in the third. Unfortunately, that was all they could do against Atlanta rookie Randall Delgado and three relievers, and Kershaw ran into trouble in the seventh, allowing two singles before Miles’ throwing error. A wild pitch and a Brooks Conrad single later, and the game was tied at three.

Blake Hawksworth took the loss by allowing the Braves to walk off in the ninth thanks to a Jose Constanza single, wild pitch, and Martin Prado single. For Hawksworth, that’s the fifth consecutive game in which he’s allowed at least one earned run; in each of the previous three, he let in two. Since the All-Star break, he’s allowed 14 earned runs in 19 innings – I’m not sure what’s going on with him, but he may just be pitching himself into a DFA following the season.

Despite the loss, it’s hard to be too disappointed that the Dodgers only won two of three against the likely NL Wild Card team, seeing their winning streak end at six. They head up to Washington for another day game tomorrow, a series which will see the return of Stephen Strasburg on Tuesday.

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For the third time in two days, Don Mattingly had James Loney attempt to sacrifice bunt, and it’s absolutely killing me. Did we not learn anything yesterday? It’s bad enough to try to give up Loney, who’s only the hottest hitter in the league right now, but then it also effectively gives up Matt Kemp, because with first base open he’ll inevitably get walked. Just because it worked out in the end yesterday doesn’t make it the right play, and we saw that again in the seventh today. With Kershaw on second and Dee Gordon on first with no outs, Mattingly asked Loney to bunt Gordon over, which probably would have led to the Braves walking Kemp – who had already homered – in favor of the increasingly ice-cold Juan Rivera. The last thing you want to do there is take the bat out of the hands of your two hottest hitters; Loney was unable to get the bunt down and struck out, as did Kemp. The Dodgers came away with nothing, thanks in large part to a call that made absolutely no sense.

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Last year, we had a good time keeping track of Ryan Theriot‘s TOOTBLAN count, i.e., “Thrown Out on the Bases Like a Nincompoop”. I’m starting to wish we’d had a running count of the times Steve Lyons referred to Andre Ethier as a “Gold Glove caliber” outfielder, which is of course laughable. To Ethier’s credit, he made a very nice play in the bottom of the ninth to possibly save the game, though to my eye it took him so long to get to the ball that it probably didn’t need to look as spectacular as it ended up being.

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Unlikely first impression alert: in a continuation of the phenomenon I’ve previously discussed regarding guys like Rod Barajas, Jay Gibbons, and Orlando Hudson, people haven’t really noticed what’s happened to Rivera. Through August 15, he hit .341/.385/.512 with two homers in 91 PA, which is excellent. Including today’s 0-4, he has just 12 hits in his last 71 PA, which, not so much. I’m open to the idea of giving him a shot as a bench piece next season, let’s just cool it on the idea of extending him right now or guaranteeing him any sort of regular job. Toronto’s run by smart people, and he was DFA’d for a reason.

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Earlier today, I noted that an under-the-radar reason for the Dodger hot streak may have been that Kemp was moved from cleanup to third in the order at precisely the time the streak got going. I neglected to mention that friend of the blog Howard Cole had been calling for the move at the OC Register since at least July. As I mentioned I do think that the run has been a team effort – who knows what might have happened if James Loney hadn’t finally woken up – but getting Kemp more at-bats and Ethier fewer absolutely makes sense.

A.J. Ellis and Friends Bowl Over Cardinals for Sweep

August 24, 2011 at 2:25 pm | Posted in A.J. Ellis, Juan Rivera | 34 Comments

A.J. Ellis, we’ve been waiting all year; it’s a nice way to welcome you back.

Ellis’ fifth-inning home run was not only the first of his major league career and one of his two-run scoring hits in his first MLB game since July 8, but it also came just 115 miles from his hometown of Cape Girardeu, MO. Over the last 24 hours, Dodger catchers are five for nine with three homers and a double. Dioner who? After not having hit a homer since 2008, Ellis now has three in the last two months, clearly brought about by the fact that he may or may not have been reading our gentle ribbing about his lack of power on the family of Dodger blogs.

Of course, Ellis wasn’t alone in helping the Dodgers destroy the Cardinals 9-4 on their way to their first sweep in St. Louis since 1993. Ellis’ second-inning single merely made him the eighth consecutive Dodger to reach to start the inning against Cardinal lefty Jaime Garcia, which included one of James Loney‘s three hits on the day and Juan Rivera‘s first extra-base hit, a run-scoring double to deep left. Loney’s third multi-hit game in four days gives him 17 total bases in his last 17 at-bats, a fact noted by many, but don’t get too used to it: after a day off Thursday, the Dodgers are back at home on Friday. (To be fair, they do face the Rockies, so maybe it’ll be a wash.)

Rivera followed by hitting a two-run homer in the 6th inning, accounting for the 8th and 9th Dodger runs, and pushing his line with Los Angeles to .322/.367/.496. Since these are the 2011 Dodgers, that merely served to prompt a barrage of “yeah, but how much is Ned Colletti going to toss at him this offseason simply because he’s made a great first impression” jokes, understandable given what we’ve seen in years past with Rod Barajas and others. That’s a discussion for another day; for now, I’m cognizant of Rivera’s somewhat mediocre past (Toronto does not drop value for nothing lightly) while greatly enjoying his upgrade over Marcus Thames, particularly as Andre Ethier struggles mightily.

Eugenio Velez grounded out hitting for Hiroki Kuroda in the eighth to extend his misery to 0-27, but there’s roster moves on the way: Kenley Jansen and Dee Gordon could each be activated by the weekend. (Update: that was quick; right after the game, the Dodgers announced via Twitter that Josh Lindblom had been sent down for Jansen. Your time is still coming, Eugenio.)

It’s Time To Move On From Casey Blake

August 22, 2011 at 10:43 am | Posted in Casey Blake, Juan Rivera, Tim Federowicz | 33 Comments

Hey, I like Casey Blake. Despite the regrettable circumstances of his arrival, his lousy 2010, and the fact that his inability to stay healthy in 2011 was predictable from about a million miles away, Blake’s been a solid enough player and by all accounts an even better person and teammate. All of the nice things you’ve heard about Jim Thome‘s off-the-field demeanor lately? I’ve never met Casey Blake, but every last word I’ve heard about him suggests that they all apply to him as well.

Believe it or not, Blake is, by most measures, one of the three best Dodger third basemen in the last century. Think about that for a second, but it’s true. Among those with as many plate appearances as he has, with at least 50% of them coming at third, Blake has the third highest OPS+. (It was pointed out to me that Jim Gilliam provided plenty of value as a third baseman as well, though he does not appear on this list because less than half his time came at the hot corner.)

Rk	Player	OPS+	PA	From	To	Age	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	OPS
1	Ron Cey	125	6108	1971	1982	23-34	5216	1378	223	18	228	.804
2	Red Smith	110	1667	1911	1914	21-24	1467	409	84	25	14	.743
3	Casey Blake	108	1592	2008	2011	34-37	1393	362	72	9	49	.768
4	Adrian Beltre	108	3818	1998	2004	19-25	3462	949	176	18	147	.794
5	Cookie Lavagetto	104	3241	1937	1947	24-34	2777	763	143	28	35	.756

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/22/2011.

Change that to WAR in order to get defense in, and that drops him to fourth, though you could argue that Cookie Lavagetto barely beats him out yet had the benefit of twice as many plate appearances to do it.

Rk	Player	WAR/pos	PA	From	To	Age	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	OPS
1	Ron Cey	46.2	6108	1971	1982	23-34	5216	1378	223	18	228	.804
2	Adrian Beltre	22.6	3818	1998	2004	19-25	3462	949	176	18	147	.794
3	Cookie Lavagetto	12.4	3241	1937	1947	24-34	2777	763	143	28	35	.756
4	Casey Blake	10.6	1592	2008	2011	34-37	1393	362	72	9	49	.768
5	Joe Stripp	8.3	2800	1932	1937	29-34	2567	758	129	30	13	.719

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/22/2011.

And while I don’t have a table for it, his VORB – that’s Value Over Replacement Beard – is off the charts.

(Here’s where we’ll get the arguments that Blake’s historical ranking somehow justifies the Carlos Santana trade. No, it doesn’t; that trade was good for only two months of Blake’s time, not his full Dodger career, and it’ll never be okay that Cleveland got more from the Dodgers for Blake than they did from Milwaukee for C.C. Sabathia at the same time. Besides, considering that Blake’s 2010-11 span has been awful and he’s still ranking where he does, it should be clear that third base has not exactly been a position with a glorious history for the Dodgers.)

Anyway, the point of all this is not to reflect upon Blake’s position in Dodger history, such as it were, but to suggest that perhaps it’s time to shut it down, for the benefit of all involved. Blake has missed substantial amounts of time this season, from starting the year on the DL with a back injury to missing over a month with a left elbow infection to his current malady, a pinched nerve in his neck.

As Dylan Hernandez writes, the neck injury has Blake thinking about his long-term health:

Casey Blake hit off a tee Sunday, the start of his latest comeback from a pinched nerve in his neck that has bothered him for a significant part of the season.

But Blake, who has missed the Dodgers’ last four games, is proceeding with caution.

“Obviously, this neck thing is pretty serious,” he said. “I want to be able to move my neck when I’m 50.”

As recently as last month, the 38-year-old third baseman said he wasn’t entertaining the idea of retirement. But he said this weekend that his condition was making him reconsider.

“Sure,” he said. “Obviously, I don’t want to go out like this. Hopefully, with rest in the off-season this thing goes away and I can get ready to play another season. I’ll cross that bridge when I get there.”

He said he is unsure whether he would continue playing if it meant jeopardizing his long-term health.

Blake, who has made three trips to the disabled list and is batting .250 in 58 games, said his goals for the remainder of the season have also changed.

Earlier in the year, he talked about wanting to play well enough to essentially force the Dodgers to exercise the $6-million team option in his contract for next season. He said this week that his priorities have now shifted.

“I’m not even worried about that right now,” Blake said. “The main focus is just getting healthy and doing what’s best for my neck and my future.”

He said doctors have warned him that his condition could worsen if he continues to play.

“The more I play, the more chance I have to really put more pressure on that nerve,” Blake said. “If you put enough pressure on it, you bang it enough, you can cause some damage.”

While you certainly feel for Blake as a player, because no one wants to see their career possibly end like this, you do have to wonder what exactly the point is for the Dodgers. I hardly need to remind you how short the bench has been over the last few days, particularly with Rod Barajas banged up, the bullpen exhausted, and Eugenio Velez continuing to be Eugenio Velez. Remember, James Loney had to throw a bullpen session yesterday and Aaron Miles was prepared to be the backup catcher, simply because there were no appropriate bodies to do the job. Considering that Barajas couldn’t catch and Velez can’t play, the Dodgers have been essentially going with a 22.5-man roster in part because Blake is taking up a roster spot yet can’t contribute.

Even if he can, how does that help the Dodgers? Blake’s clearly not going to be with the team in 2012, so the focus should be on finding out right now if you have anything in the system who can help. (I know, I know - there probably isn’t, but what’s to lose? The team is already in last place.) Disable Blake, and call up Russ Mitchell. DFA Velez, and call up Ivan DeJesus. DFA Dioner Navarro – or donate him to science, I don’t care – and call up A.J. Ellis. Play Justin Sellers every day at short (which, to their credit, they generally are) until Dee Gordon returns.

If Blake’s ready to make a few appearances before the end of the season, that’s fine, because rosters expand a week from Thursday, and since he last played on August 17, he’d be eligible to return the very next day. Letting him take up a roster spot isn’t helping the team now, and it’s not helping him by pushing him to rush back and risk further injury.

It’s time to move on.

******

Speaking of minor leaguers we’ll likely see soon, Christopher Jackson’s latest – this time for MiLB.com – is a feature on catcher Tim Federowicz which is a must-click if only for the photo of the mustache that I pray Federowicz brought with him from Boston.

To his credit, Federowicz seems to understand that the trade which brought him to the Dodgers wasn’t necessarily welcomed by a lot of fans:

The stated intent by Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti was to acquire a catching prospect, something Los Angeles lacked in its farm system. Federowicz said he understands the frustration of Dodgers fans.

“Yeah, they gave up Trayvon — he’s a great player and now he’s in the big leagues, doing his thing up there,” Federowicz said. “That’s tough to lose.

“I guess there is a little bit of pressure to show fans what I’ve got. But I think it’ll eventually work out the way the Dodgers want it to.”

My guess is that Fedorowicz is probably not going to be ready to start 2012 in the majors, and since he’s not eligible for the Rule 5 draft, he most likely will not be called up in September, since that would require him to be added to the 40-man roster. But could we see an Ellis/Federowicz tandem by this time next year? It certainly couldn’t be worse than Barajas/Navarro.

Dodgers Swept as Rare Display of Offense Fails to Overcome Shoddy Pitching and Worse Defense

August 10, 2011 at 4:10 pm | Posted in Chad Billingsley, Dee Gordon, Eugenio Velez, Juan Rivera | 74 Comments

On a day where the Dodgers put up five runs off Philadelphia rookie sensation Vance Worley before fans even got to their seats – uh no, really – the wheels fell off in a hurry, as a lead that was once 6-0 quickly became a 9-8 loss, completing a sweep at the hands of the Phillies. Once again, the Phils proved why they’re the best team in baseball, while the Dodgers proved that they are a mid-range team in the Pacific Coast League.

First, the brief good news: Matt Kemp and Juan Rivera combined for seven hits, including a three-run homer for Rivera in the first, as the Dodgers tied their season high for extra base hits with six. Hong-Chih Kuo retired three of the four batters he faced, entering in a tough situation with two men on in the fifth, and Matt Guerrier, Mike MacDougal, and Javy Guerra combined for 3.1 innings of scoreless relief to finish it off.

On Rivera, and he’ll need his own post shortly, there’s going to be plenty of time for jokes about how he’s playing himself into a starting job for the 2012 Dodgers, and how he’s carving a place alongside recent Dodgers of questionable skill who turned hot debuts into misplaced commitments like Rod Barajas, Jay Gibbons, Marlon Anderson, and Ronnie Belliard. Those are valid concerns which we’ll have to deal with this winter. For now, we need to praise Rivera for his performance since arriving in Los Angeles; I was cautiously optimistic when he was picked up after being DFA’d by Toronto, saying that “this deal probably makes the team better than they were this morning,” if not by much, and all Rivera has done is hit .338/.380/.507 while taking playing time away from the cratering Tony Gwynn and the disappointing James Loney. He’s not this good – he can’t possibly be – and we should know that his BABIP (.357 even before this game) is completely unsustainable. None of that should diminish what he’s done on the field, however, because he’s been excellent. For however long it lasts, upgrading from Marcus Thames to Rivera has been a nice under-the-radar move by Ned Colletti.

As for the bad news, let’s start at the top: Chad Billingsley never had it today. You’ll almost certainly read stories about how Billingsley “can’t pitch with a lead”, but that’s BS: he threw 30 pitches while struggling through the first inning, before the Dodgers even came to the plate. This is the fourth time in Billingsley’s career that he’s failed to strike out a single batter, and the first time this year, but it continues a disturbing trend: he’s struck out just six over his last three starts, after whiffing 10 Nationals on July 24.

While seven runs should always, always be enough for a starting pitcher, it’s also not like Billingsley got a whole lot of support from his defense. In the top of the fourth, he had two outs and Michael Martinez up; Martinez grounded to first, where it went off of Loney’s glove and putting Martinez on second. Worley, the next batter, singled home Martinez for the third Philly run. Should Billingsley have been able to retire the opposing pitcher? Absolutely he should have, but he’s also out of the inning if Loney fields the ball.

The same situation happened in the fifth, as with one out and two on, Billingsley got Hunter Pence to hit a soft grounder to Casey Blake at third – the kind of ball that turns into an inning-ending double play 99 times out of 100. The ball kicked off of Blake’s glove into the outfield, and rather than getting out of the inning without any damage, Billingsley saw a run score on the error and then another when Kuo got Ryan Howard to ground out. None of this absolves Billingsley; nor should it be forgotten.

Still, at the end of the fifth, the Dodgers were ahead 7-5, and that lasted until Blake Hawksworth relieved Kuo with one on in the sixth. Two singles and a Howard moonshot later, the Dodgers were down 9-6, and that was pretty much that, though they briefly threatened in the 9th with a Barajas warning track shot about 10 feet away from a walkoff win. Thanks, Blake!

******

Update: okay, the part below may not be, what’s the word, “true”. The b-ref query I’m using searches by entire seasons, and there’s at least one example where that isn’t true, as helpfully pointed out in the comments – Jose Gonzalez in 1990, who went hitless in 30 Dodger PA before being traded to Pittsburgh where he collected a few. So while he didn’t get any hits as a Dodger, he didn’t go hitless for the entire season. I’ll leave the section below intact, because it doesn’t make Eugenio Velez not suck.

In the continuing exploits of “Eugenio Velez, awful baseball player”… after another 0-2 (on three pitches, no less), Velez is still searching for his first hit in 23 plate appearances as a Dodger. That’s the most hitless PA by a non-pitcher in the entire history of the club. How about when you expand that across all teams?

Rk	Player	PA	Year	Age	Tm	G	AB	R	BB	SO
1	Hal Finney	35	1936	30	PIT	21	35	3	0	8
2	Larry Littleton	27	1981	27	CLE	26	23	2	3	6
3	David Ortiz	25	1999	23	MIN	10	20	1	5	12
4	Kevin Elster	22	1994	29	NYY	7	20	0	1	6
5	Ron Hansen	22	1958	20	BAL	12	19	1	0	7

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/10/2011.

Well, hmm. I have to say I did not expect to see David Ortiz on that list. Anyway, since our dream of “most left fielders in a season” appears to have died, we still have a statistical oddity to root for: 12 more hitless plate appearances until we can say, that by one measure at least, Eugenio Velez has had the worst season in big league history.

******

No surprise here, but after the game it was announced that Dee Gordon was placed on the 15-day disabled list due to his right shoulder injury. There’s no word yet on a replacement, though the only two infielders on the 40-man roster are Russ Mitchell and Ivan DeJesus. That said, there’s an empty spot on the 40-man and several injured pitchers who could be moved to the 60-day DL (Jon Garland, Jonathan Broxton, Rubby De La Rosa, Vicente Padilla), so if they want to promote someone not on the roster, it won’t be an issue.

Be Sure to Enjoy Hiroki Kuroda While You Can

July 16, 2011 at 3:44 pm | Posted in Hiroki Kuroda, Juan Rivera | 17 Comments

Hiroki Kuroda starts tonight for the Dodgers against Ian Kennedy in Arizona, as Los Angeles attempts to extend their season-high winning streak to six. I think it’s less than a 50/50 shot Kuroda actually gets traded before the deadline, particularly if the Dodgers keep up their recent winning streak, but if he does we could be looking at one of his final two or three starts in blue. That’s kind of a sad thought, no?

Unrelated and far, far less poignant: Juan Rivera‘s fine debut last night gives him the highest OPS in Dodger history, with a minimum 4 PA. (What small sample size?)

Also! Another installment of talking Dodger baseball with Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts, complete with “just played a softball doubleheader hair” from me.