Kenley Jansen « Mike Scioscia's tragic illness

MSTI’s 2011 in Review: Relievers, Part 4

November 20, 2011 at 3:57 pm | Posted in Hong-Chih Kuo, Kenley Jansen, Lance Cormier | 31 Comments

Kenley Jansen (K+)
2.85 ERA, 1.74 FIP, 16.10 K/9, 4.36 BB/9

Let’s start with the obvious: that 16.10 K/9 isn’t a typo. At 23, Jansen set a new MLB record for the highest K/9 rate ever, minimum 50 innings pitched. For someone in just his second full year of pitching after being converted from catching, that’s simply stunning.

Of course, there’s a lot more to Jansen’s year than simply whiffing every batter he saw, especially when it started out so poorly in his season debut:

Particularly troubling was Jansen’s disastrous sixth inning. After issuing a walk to Brandon Belt, his outing went RBI double, popout, walk, single (which could have easily been an error on Aaron Miles), RBI single, RBI single, strikeout, strikeout. It took him 42 pitches to get three outs, and he walks away with an ERA of 54. As I noted on Twitter at the time, because relievers generally don’t throw a ton of innings, it’ll take him weeks – if not months – to get that ERA down to a more palatable number, so even if he’s totally perfect from here on out, people will still see that high ERA on their TV graphics and think that he’s lousy. Hooray, ineffective statistics!

That’s exactly what happened, because thanks to that game and another disaster on April 19, Jansen’s ERA didn’t sink below 5 until July. Despite that, he still had a 22/8 K/BB in 13.1 innings through the first month of the season, making his demotion to the minors on May 1 somewhat shocking:

Since allowing four earned runs to the Giants on April 2, Jansen’s pitched in 12.1 innings over 10 games. In that time, he’s struck out 20 against 6 walks, allowing a line of .196/.288/.391. He did have a meltdown on April 19 against the Braves, giving up five earned runs in the 9th inning of a game that the Dodgers were already losing, but has been excellent in the three games since: 9 strikeouts and 2 walks in 4.2 innings, without a hit.

Yet Lance Cormier, who’s pitched just once in the last two weeks, and only once has made it through an appearance without giving up a run, remains. I assume that this falls under Ned Colletti’s usual m.o. of keeping control over as many players as possible, and I guess it’s not the worst thing in the world for Jansen to get more experience in a lower-pressure environment, but with the bullpen struggling as much as it has been, it certainly seems like an odd choice to send down the guy who’s striking out 14.85 men per nine innings. That’s the highest rate of anyone in baseball this year with at least 13 innings pitched, and it’s the 8th best seasonal rate in major league history (obviously, in a tiny sample size).

Jansen will be back soon, and Cormier, most likely, won’t be. So this isn’t a fatal, crushing mistake. It’s just an unexpected choice to look at your bullpen full of guys who don’t miss bats – like Matt Guerrier, Cormier, and lately Jonathan Broxton – and send down the one guy who really does.

It seemed like an odd choice at the time, and knowing what we do now about Cormier, looks even worse in retrospect. Of course, it lasted just five days, as Jansen was forced to return on May 6 when Hong-Chih Kuo went on the disabled list. He didn’t allow a run in his first seven outings of the month, but then he allowed three runs while blowing a save in Houston in what might have been the lowest point of the season on May 23. After another tough outing against Florida five days later, he was placed on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation.

To that point in the season, Jansen had a 6.43 ERA thanks to three disaster games, had been optioned out once and was now dealing with arm soreness. Though he’d clearly shown flashes of what he could do (35 K in 21 IP), he hadn’t quite been able to put it all together, inconsistency that we chalked up to his inexperience on the mound. That may have been so, but everything changed when he returned to the club on June 18. In 16 innings from then until the end of July, Jansen was basically unhittable, striking out 26 while allowing just three singles to the 58 batters he faced.

But after closing out a game against Colorado on July 26, we received the harrowing news that Jansen had been sent to a local hospital thanks to an irregular heartbeat; three days later, he was on the disabled list and taking blood thinners. While we initially worried about the impact this could have on his life outside of baseball, he was back with the team a month later and picked up right where he left off: in 16.2 innings after August 26, he struck out 35 of the 62 batters he faced, allowing just seven hits. Over the rest of the season after returning from his shoulder soreness on June 18, he had a 61/12 K/BB while holding opponents to a miniscule .094/.192/.104 line while becoming the team’s primary setup man.

Before the season, Jansen noted that he was doing his best to imitate his idol Mariano Rivera. It wasn’t always smooth, but Jansen arguably had a more dominating season than the great Rivera has ever had. Just 24 next season and still learning how to pitch, there’s few words for Jansen’s ascent to stardom, though there’s still a feeling that this story is one that isn’t receiving the national attention it deserves, mainly because Jansen wasn’t given the chance to rack up the saves that a contemporary like Atlanta’s Craig Kimbrel has. Though Javy Guerra is almost certain to start 2012 as the closer, he’ll have to be on his game from the start to hold off Jansen.

Hong-Chih Kuo (F)
9.00 ERA, 5.06 FIP, 12.00 K/9, 7.67 BB/9

If you could have paired 2010 Kuo with 2011 Jansen, the Dodgers might have had the most dominating left/right combo in baseball history, and if you don’t buy that, just go back and remember how great Kuo was in 2010. Unfortunately, Kuo never got untracked, sidetracked by issues both physical and emotional.

It was clear that Kuo wasn’t right straight from the start, as he walked four in his first 2.2 innings and just didn’t look right doing it. On April 16, he was placed on the disabled list with back soreness, which at least allowed us the small relief of not having to worry about his arm again. (For the moment, anyway.) He returned on May 1, but after he’d struggled in his minor league rehab outings, I worried that it was too soon:

Though Blake Hawksworth was solid in contributing two scoreless innings, much more disturbing was Hong-Chih Kuo‘s seemingly premature return from the disabled list. Kuo threw 25 pitches, but just 14 for strikes while allowing four men to reach in a 9th inning he couldn’t complete. His velocity was in the low 90s, but his control was all over the place; he was finally yanked after hitting Will Venable with a big, looping curveball, one of several breaking pitches he had no command of. Mike MacDougal followed by allowing a run to score on a sacrifice fly, and two more on a Chase Headley double.

Kuo lasted just four more games before leaving the team again on May 11, a move which at the time was mostly notable for the shroud of mystery it was wrapped in, as no one associated with the team was able to publicly state the reason. We later found out that it was due to “anxiety issues”, or a relapse of the “yips” which had previously plagued him.

Kuo missed about six weeks, returning in late June, and the results were mixed; particularly troubling was a five-game stretch in late July and early August where he allowed nine earned runs while walking eight. He improved, though, slowly, since over the last two months he had an 18/7 K/BB while allowing only a .178/.302/.333 line. Unfortunately, any positive feelings that might have allowed him to carry over into 2012 disappeared when we learned the disappointing news that he would need yet another surgery on his left elbow, his fifth total.

Despite reports that Kuo may considering retirement, his agent insists that he’ll attempt to return to MLB in 2012. The surgery makes him an almost certain non-tender, shocking to think just a year after his phenomenal 2010, though that might actually make him more likely to return to the Dodgers, if his familiarity with the team’s medical staff makes him more amenable to coming back on a low guaranteed salary. I hope he does, but regardless of where he lands, I think we all just hope he can finally stay happy and healthy, after everything he’s been through.

Lance Cormier (F-)
9.88 ERA, 6.90 FIP, 4.61 K/9, 3.29 BB/9

If you’re wondering why Cormier’s card clearly displays one of the staged pictures from spring training photo day rather than game action like everyone else, it’s because Cormier was hardly ever allowed to even pitch. When he was signed, we had incredibly low expectations…

Getting back to Lance Cormier, an initial look at his baseball-reference page shows that maybe this guy isn’t so bad, as he pitched in at least 45 games in each of the last three years, with ERA of 4.02, 3.26, and 3.92. That could be useful, right?

But then I look over to the right column, and see that he’s walked less than 4.3 per 9 exactly once in his career, and for a guy who doesn’t strike out all that many, that seems brutal. It was even worse in 2010, since he actually walked more (4.9/9) than he struck out (4.4/9). Not good.

The brain doesn’t stop there, though. Seeing that K/BB mark made me think that, “hey, didn’t I write about this guy already?” Indeed I did, back on December 3, when I was looking at the players who were non-tendered by other teams:

Cormier comes up because he had a 3.92 ERA this year. He also had a 1.648 WHIP and walked four more guys than he struck out. Uh, no thanks. PASS.

Yep. Gross.

…and he still managed to under-perform them. Cormier pitched in just nine games as a Dodger, allowing earned runs in seven of them. Looking at his game log, it was clear that Don Mattingly had zero confidence in him, since he was only allowed to enter games that were completely out of hand. Only once did Cormier get a chance to pitch in a game that had anything on the line, on May 19 against the Giants after the Dodgers had come back from a 4-0 deficit to tie. Yeah, about that…

Having exhausted all his pitchers, Don Mattingly was forced to use his “break glass in case of emergency” pitcher, Lance Cormier in a tie game in the 9th. Even before this game, Cormier had been completely putrid, but at least he’d done so in the lowest of low-leverage situations. Of the seven games he’d entered before yesterday, only one ended up being even as close as a four run game. I will absolutely support Tony Jackson’s premise that Cormier’s extremely rare usage (he hadn’t pitched in eight days, and just twice since April 22 – nearly a month) contributed to his poor performance last night, but that doesn’t change the fact that he hasn’t gotten the job done all season. Predictably, Cormier couldn’t get through the inning when it actually mattered, allowing two singles before a three-run blast by Cody Ross put the game away.

Honestly, the fact that Cormier lasted as long as he did counts as some sort of minor miracle, though he’ll at least be the answer to a fun trivia question: who was cut loose to make room for Rubby De La Rosa? After returning to Tampa’s AAA club, the results weren’t much better, allowing 62 hits in 47.1 innings. I think I’ll be pretty happy if this is the last time I ever have to think about Lance Cormier existing on this planet.

******

Next! Don Mattingly overcomes our doubts! Ned Colletti, doing Ned Colletti things! It’s the final review of 2011: management!

Youth In the Bullpen Is Still the Way to Go

September 27, 2011 at 7:58 am | Posted in Javy Guerra, Kenley Jansen, Matt Guerrier, Ned Colletti | 65 Comments

I hate to ever, ever use T.J. Simers as a source for anything – hell, in the same column we’re about to discuss, he says he’d choose Ian Kennedy over Clayton Kershaw for the Cy Young because “without Kennedy the Diamondbacks don’t win the division”, as though A) that makes sense or B) Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay don’t exist – but the LA Times‘ resident clownshoe did manage to elicit an interesting quote out of Ned Colletti yesterday:

He’s hoping Hiroki Kuroda returns and will look to add a veteran to the bullpen, “but not a closer,” he says. “I think we’ll go with a combination of Kenley Jensen [sic] and Javy Guerra.”

For such a short sentence, there’s a whole lot going on there, and I’m not talking about Kuroda. Let’s take the second part first, where he says they’ll stick with Guerra and Kenley Jansen (not that Simers knows who that is) in the back of the bullpen. This is unquestionably the correct decision, because Jansen has been one of the most dominating relievers we’ve seen in years – decades, perhaps – and Guerra, for all of our uncertainty about his underwhelming peripherals, has consistently gotten the job done as the closer. While Jansen fits the prototypical mold of the fireballing closer more than Guerra, I agree with Jon Weisman that using him as the fireman in the highest leverage situations is a much better use of his time than shoehorning him into the 9th inning because that’s simply what closers do, which is often not when the game is won or lost. Going out and spending big dollars on a closer just because he has “saves”, like Francisco Rodriguez, Matt Capps, or Heath Bell, is not the most efficient usage of money when you have Jansen and Guerra, and good on Colletti for recognizing that.

If that was the end of the story, we’d be sitting pretty, but unfortunately, Colletti had to add that he wants to add a veteran to the bullpen, and that’s where the problems begin. We’ve talked ad nauseum around here about the unfortunate Matt Guerrier contract and how handing out multi-year contracts to decent-ish middle relievers rarely works (particularly when, as shown in that last link, better veteran relievers were signed for less money last winter).

It’s not even that Guerrier has been bad this year, because he hasn’t, just that there’s almost no way he lives up to the money committed to him, as Chad Moriyama broke down a few weeks ago:

Guerrier was the big money free agent signing, and he was actually decently productive in 2011. Unfortunately, the only reason he clocks in at positive value is because of the deferred nature of his overall contract (4 Y/12 M), so he’ll have to get better in a hurry if he wants to continue breaking even. The more likely scenario is that it ends up being a neutral to poor overall transaction.

-

Over the course of the 2011 season, the Dodgers relief corps has proved that bullpen arms are indeed a fickle and fungible group, with production to be found from a multitude of sources, and that the most value out of the pen is commonly derived from those making the least. Sticking with cheap team controlled building blocks in the bullpen can be highly effective, and the money used to sign costly relievers can frequently be better used elsewhere.

This is especially true because relief pitching is one of the few areas that the Dodgers are relatively deep in as far as young arms on the way up. In addition to Jansen, Guerra, Guerrier, Scott Elbert, & Josh Lindblom, all proven at the big league level (we’ll have to get back to whether Hong-Chih Kuo gets tendered a contract another time), the organization is full of nearly-ready names like Shawn Tolleson, Steven Ames, & Cole St. Clair, moderately useful filler like Blake Hawksworth (if tendered) and Jon Link, plus who among us doesn’t believe that Mike MacDougal and his shiny ERA will be back? That’s a pretty full bullpen right there, and it’s not like this team doesn’t have a dozen other holes to fill in the upcoming offseason.

Now, if signing a veteran bullpen arm means another scrap-heap type like MacDougal, then fine, since for all his warts he made just $500,000 this year. Colletti does seem to be able to find at least one arm like that every year. If it means handing out another multi-year deal to one of the members of this year’s non-elite reliever free agent class – I’m looking at you, Jon Rauch, Mike Gonzalez, Jason Frasor and Chad Qualls – then we could be in trouble.

Dee Gordon Makes His Case

September 8, 2011 at 7:12 pm | Posted in Dee Gordon, Kenley Jansen | 47 Comments

When Dee Gordon was recalled in June, most of us were torn between “wow, Dee Gordon! This will be exciting!” and “this is far too soon, right?” In 30 games (26 starts) over the next two months sandwiched around a demotion and an injury , Gordon didn’t do much to change that impression, hitting just .234/.248/.270, yet providing a season’s worth of highlight-reel plays.

When Gordon returned on September 1 in the Pittsburgh makeup game, he had two hits, including a double. He had three the next day in Atlanta, a double the next night despite not getting into the game until the eighth inning, and three more in the final game against the Braves. After an ugly 0-5 on Monday in Washington, Gordon had three more hits on Tuesday – including a double against Stephen Strasburg that almost no one else in baseball could have stretched to two – and then a career-high four on Thursday afternoon. Since his return from the disabled list, Gordon is 16-31 with four doubles, and showing the usual combo of fantastic plays and botched easy plays on defense.

It’s not all gravy, of course; Gordon has drawn just two walks in 145 plate appearances. (Sidebar: let’s assume Gordon gets something like 200 plate appearances this season; only seven players since MLB integrated had that many PA without drawing more than two unintentional walks.) It’s pretty hard to have an acceptable slash line when you’re not drawing any walks, and his BABIP of 8.123 (may be slightly exaggerated) over that span isn’t likely to keep up.

All of which is a long way of saying that A) Gordon’s success has been really fun to watch this week, B) clearly he’s not going to keep it up, and C) most importantly, I think that as long as he stays healthy, there’s little chance the Dodgers won’t hand him the fulltime shortstop job headed into 2012. Why wouldn’t they? They’re not going to play Justin Sellers every day, and they already have at least two – possibly three – infield question marks.

On Twitter, realizing this, I offhandedly said, with little thought or research, to Eric Stephen of TrueBlueLA that given 500 plate appearances in 2012, Gordon’s line might look something like .275/.310/.340 with 38 steals and 31 errors. In retrospect, the steals might be too low, but considering that I saw replies from people both calling me far too optimistic and insisting he’d hit .300, I think that’s about in the sweet spot. Too high? Too low? Let’s hear your guesses.

******

Kenley Jansen, since returning from shoulder inflammation on June 18: 40 strikeouts, 10 walks, one earned run allowed, and five hits allowed (all singles) in 86 batters faced. Uh, yes please. The lack of attention he’s receiving is bordering on criminal.

******

Have fun this weekend, particularly with Clayton Kershaw looking to continue his run of domination against the Giants on Friday. (Remember what happened when he faced them in May? We bagged on Don Mattingly for choosing Juan Castro over Jerry Sands, Russ Mitchell, and Tony Gwynn to pinch-hit for Kershaw with the bases loaded, thus leading to Lance Cormier being asked to blow a tie game. Which he did. Ahhh, good times.) I’m off on a boat to an island. Chew on that for a while. See you Monday.

Kershaw, Kemp & Kenley Lead the Way

July 26, 2011 at 10:28 pm | Posted in Clayton Kershaw, Jamey Carroll, Kenley Jansen | 23 Comments

Clayton Kershaw went 6.2 solid innings while setting a career high in pitches, and the Dodger offense finally touched Jhoulys Chacin thanks in part to some shoddy Colorado defense, but that’s not what I’m interested in tonight.

A few days ago, I tweeted that I wasn’t quite sure why Kenley Jansen was setting up for Javy Guerra, rather than vice-versa. It was sort of an off-hand remark more than anything serious, because to be honest it doesn’t really matter at this point, and Jon Weisman accurately captured the feeling that Guerra’s success has been welcome, but not totally convincing.

It was less about Guerra than Jansen, of course, because the level of domination we’ve seen from Jansen since his return from the disabled list in June has been a severely under-reported positive note of the Dodger season; if I’d had a few extra minutes today, I’d planned to write about him before the game. I wish I’d had, because with Guerra sidelined after having pitched three days in a row, Jansen was the fill-in closer tonight; seven pitches and two strikeouts later, his legend is starting to grow.

Quickly, the facts: since returning from injury, Jansen has pitched 16 scoreless innings spanning 14 games. In that time, he’s whiffed 26 against 7 walks and 3 singles. Think about that; he’s striking out nearly half the batters he’s seeing, he’s cutting down on the walks, and he’s been all but unhittable. Remember how great we thought his K/9 rate was last season? Yeah, it’s better this year; if he keeps it up, he’ll have one of the five or six best seasons in history by that metric.

Yet he seemingly hasn’t earned the respect he deserves, and I think I know why. In his first appearance of the season, he gave up four earned runs in a game the Dodgers would lose to San Francisco 10-0. Later in April, he gave up five earned runs to Atlanta, as the Dodgers lost 10-1. Despite ripping off ten consecutive scoreless innings after that, his ERA was still north of 5 through the end of May, when he was hit hard again just before being shelved with shoulder inflammation. Even now, 16 scoreless innings later, his ERA is still just 3.65, which is hardly eye-catching. The point, as you’ve surely gleaned by now, is not just that ERA for relievers is wildly unreliable due to the small sample sizes, but that people tend to gravitate to the shiny numbers they see on their TV screen – and that first impressions are far too important. If Jansen had the exact same season numbers he does now, but had been great early and hit hard more recently, I guarantee you the perception of him would be a little different.

For now, the situation is fine. Often, we know that it’s better to have your best relievers available for tougher situations before the 9th. If Guerra continues to get the job done, even when it’s not pretty, there’s really no reason to rock the boat this season to make a switch. It’s not Guerra who’s the closer of the future, though. It’s Jansen.

******

So here’s a thing, and while this is going to come off as being negative towards Jamey Carroll, it’s not intended to be. I like Jamey Carroll; I’ll be sad when he’s gone, whether that’s in three days or three months, and I need not remind you that Carroll’s job is not to drive in runs and that RBI are generally incredibly meaningless.

That said, when I stumble upon a statistical oddity like this, how can I not share it? Carroll is on pace to be one of the most ineffective hitters at driving in runs, well, ever.

Rk	Player	RBI	PA	Year	Age	Tm	H	2B	3B	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Dick Howser	6	377	1965	29	CLE	72	8	2	1	.235	.354	.283	.638
2	Jamey Carroll	8	337	2011	37	LAD	86	12	4	0	.288	.360	.355	.715
3	Wayne Tolleson	9	378	1984	28	TEX	72	9	2	0	.213	.276	.251	.528
4	Elliott Maddox	10	349	1972	24	TEX	74	7	2	0	.252	.361	.289	.650
5	Don Mason	11	377	1971	26	SDP	73	12	1	2	.212	.270	.270	.540
6	Danny Murtaugh	11	375	1941	23	PHI	76	8	1	0	.219	.275	.248	.523
7	Charlie Jamieson	11	473	1918	25	PHA	84	11	2	0	.202	.297	.238	.535
8	Roy Thomas	11	339	1909	35	BSN	74	9	1	0	.263	.369	.302	.671
9	Al Burch	11	381	1906	22	STL	89	5	1	0	.266	.339	.287	.625
10	John Shelby	12	371	1989	31	LAD	63	11	1	1	.183	.237	.229	.466

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/27/2011.

That’s a list of the fewest RBI by players with at least 337 PA (which is what Carroll had entering tonight’s game) since 1901, which is essentially the beginning of time in baseball terms. What’s most interesting here is the “OPS” category on the far right, because – as would be expected – we’re looking at some dreadful years, none more so than our own John Shelby‘s nearly unfathomable 1989. But Carroll doesn’t fall into that category; after tonight’s 2-3, his line now stands at a .291/.363/.358, which is more than acceptable.

For Carroll, his lack of runs driven in looks to be something of a perfect storm. Part of it is batting position, as he’s often hit leadoff (meaning there’s no one on to start the game, or behind the pitcher otherwise) or 8th (behind the generally execrable Juan Uribe, Dioner Navarro, or Rod Barajas). He simply doesn’t get a ton of opportunities with men in scoring position. Of course, he’s not doing much with the chances he does get: just .160/.323/.160 in 63 plate appearances with RISP this year.

Anyway, most of us expect Carroll to be elsewhere by the end of the week, so this is neither here nor there, and certainly not a knock on his performance. But in a season that was lost long ago, might as well root for this record right up alongside the chase for “most left fielders”, right?

2011 Midseason Grades: Pitching and Management

July 12, 2011 at 9:29 am | Posted in Blake Hawksworth, Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Davey Lopes, Don Mattingly, Hiroki Kuroda, Hong-Chih Kuo, Javy Guerra, John Ely, Jon Garland, Jonathan Broxton, Josh Lindblom, Kenley Jansen, Matt Guerrier, Mike MacDougal, Ned Colletti, Ramon Troncoso, Rubby de la Rosa, Scott Elbert, Ted Lilly, Vicente Padilla | 37 Comments

Thanks for all the feedback on yesterday’s hitting grades, and today we move on to pitching and management. Remember, the letter grades are just for fun, without a whole lot of thought or science behind them.

Starting Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw (A+) (9-4, 3.03 ERA, 2.45 FIP)
Is A+ even high enough? I’m not sure it is, though we certainly expected great things from him. Think about this: his HR/9 rate and H/9 rate are unchanged from last year, but he’s managed to do that while lowering his walk rate (again!) and increasing his strikeout rate. He’s leading the league in whiffs, and he has two shutouts among his three complete games. He’s 23. He’s lefty. He’s an All-Star.

Don’t let anyone tell you that he’s progressing towards being an ace, or one day he could be one of the best. Clayton Kershaw is, right now, one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball. The scary part? He could still get better.

Chad Billingsley (B) (8-7, 3.87 ERA, 3.41 FIP)
Over at Baseball Prospectus this morning, Geoff Young of DuckSnorts offers the opinion that Billingsley “should be a star, but isn’t”. And that’s true. 26-year-old Billingsley is walking more and striking out less than 23-year-old Billingsley did in 2008. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, because he’s still a very valuable asset and the extension he signed over the winter was welcomed, but he’s also not going to be a Kershaw-level star like we’d once hoped he would be. Again, that’s not to get on Billingsley, it’s just seemingly who he’s going to be – a durable #2 or 3 type who will be consistently inconsistent (3 starts this year of at least 8 IP and 1 ER or less, 3 starts allowing 5 ER or more). That’s not a star, but it is a quality pitcher we should be happy to have.

Hiroki Kuroda (B) (6-10, 3.06 ERA, 3.73 FIP)
Only five pitchers have received less run support than Kuroda (shockingly, no other Dodger appears on the top 40 of that list), so let’s not pretend the poor win/loss record means absolutely anything at all. Conversely, the ERA is a little misleading as well, since he’s striking out fewer and walking more than he did in either 2009 or 2010, facts which are reflected in the higher FIP. Still, he’s been a solid member of this rotation… and probably the only Dodger with any real trade value at the deadline. I’ll be sorry to see him go, if he does.

Ted Lilly (D) (6-9, 4.79 ERA, 4.59 FIP)
Lilly hasn’t been awful (back, back, it’s gone!), but nor has he been (throw to second, and the runner is in!) in any way worthy of the $33m deal he received in the offseason. He’s (that ball is far, it is out of here!) striking out fewer than ever, and more (he’s going, and he swipes second without a throw) batted balls in front of a defense that isn’t great at converting them into outs isn’t (that ball is crushed into the second tier!) a good mix. Oh, and he’s 35 and has complained (Navarro’s throw to second, not in time, another steal!) of arm soreness already. Loving that three-year deal more than ever.

Rubby De La Rosa (A) (3-4, 3.74 ERA, 3.40 FIP)
Probably the most impressive of any of the rookies pushed ahead of their schedule this year, de la Rosa has shown immense talent while being forced to learn on-the-job. While his first few starts were dicey – good lord, the walks, and that one game that he nearly got bounced in the first inning was a heart-stopper – RDLR has shown marked improvement, even flirting with no-hitters in each of his last two outings. The talent is unquestioned, but the real concern now is limited his innings, since he’s quickly coming up on matching his previous high with more than two months remaining in the season. But if he’s limited and if someone like Kuroda is dealt… how do you finish out the season? John Ely? Dana Eveland? Yikes.

Jon Garland (D-) (1-5, 4.33 ERA, 4.59 FIP)
Hey, remember when Garland was signed largely because he’d never been on the disabled list before? If you do, then you probably also remember him saying he couldn’t get multi-year deals because other teams didn’t like the looks of his medical reports. Garland gets a lousy grade not because of his performance (ignore the 1-5, a 4.59 FIP is in line with his usual season), but because he sells his durability as a skill. Clearly, that’s one item he forgot to pack for his second (and likely final) tour with the Dodgers. At least that large 2012 option won’t kick in.

John Ely (inc.) (0-1, 6.23 ERA, 5.61 FIP)
Remember Ely-mania last year? Seems so far away, doesn’t it?

Relief pitchers

Jonathan Broxton (MRI) (1-2, 7 saves, 5.68 ERA, 5.56 FIP)
I have absolutely no idea how to grade Jonathan Broxton. Was he good this year? No, of course he wasn’t, and for many people that justifies their opinion that at around midseason 2010, he somehow lost his heart / mind / balls / toes / earlobes / whatever. The fact that he somehow managed to even close out seven games earlier this year is somewhat misleading, because he rarely did so smoothly; conversely, it’s difficult to blame him entirely for the big blown save in Florida because the Dodgers would have won if Jamey Carroll had merely fielded a simple ground ball.

I’d say the answer lies in the fact that he’s been on the disabled list for over two months due to a right elbow injury, with no estimated return date. We never saw the healthy Broxton this year, just as I felt we never saw a healthy Broxton in the second half of last year. The lesson, as always? Joe Torre cannot be trusted with relievers. You hate to say it about a guy who is only 27, but Torre may just have ruined Broxton’s career. Thanks for stopping by, Joe!

Hong-Chih Kuo (-) (0-0, 8.71 ERA, 4.12 FIP)
Take everything I said about Broxton above and multiply it by 100 for Kuo, because the anxiety issue he’s been fighting for years makes it impossible to really judge his on-field performance. Since returning, he’s at least managed to limit the walks (6/2 K/BB in 5.2 IP), though the results (five runs, four earned) haven’t all been there yet. The fact that he even returned as quickly as he did should count as a win.

Kenley Jansen (B+) (1-1, 4.40 ERA, 3.15 FIP)
I bet a lot of people will be surprised by this grade for Jansen. “But his ERA is 4.40, rabble rabble rabble!”, they’ll yell. That’s true, it is. That number is also heavily inflated by two poor outings – allowing 5 earned runs to Atlanta on April 19 in a game that the Dodgers were already losing in, and allowing 3 earned runs on May 23 in Houston, a game which preceded his stint on the DL with right shoulder inflammation by less than a week. Since returning from injury on June 18, he’s been nearly untouchable, striking out 13 while allowing just two singles in 9.2 innings. While the walks remain a problem, he’s actually striking out more per nine than he did in 2010, and you might remember that even last year’s rate was on the verge of being historic. The question for me is, why is he stuck in middle relief and garbage time rather than in higher leverage situations?

Matt Guerrier (C-) (3-3, 3.10 ERA, 4.44 FIP)
Boy, who would have thought that handing out an expensive multi-year deal to a non-elite middle reliever wouldn’t have worked out well? Besides everyone, that is. Guerrier actually hasn’t been that bad, but that’s sort of the point: players who get $12m over three years should be able to do better than “hasn’t been that bad”. Though he’s striking out slightly more than he did as a Twin, he’s allowing both more walks and hits than he did in either of the last two years, despite moving to the easier league. He’ll be 33 in less than a month. It’s not a good trend.

Mike MacDougal (C+) (0-1, 1.67 ERA, 3.74 FIP)
2003 All-Star MacDougal has done an excellent job of reviving his career after several years bouncing between the bigs and AAA. MacDougal, who made the 2003 All-Star team as a member of the Royals, has just a 1.74 ERA, emerging as a leader of the injury-plagued Dodger bullpen. The former All-Star has allowed only six earned runs to score, putting him in contention for 9th inning responsibilities. All-Star.

(I can’t do it. MacDougal has allowed approximately 982 of the 48 inherited runners he’s received* to score. For nearly the entire season, he’d walked as many as he’d struck out, before finally giving himself some distance in recent days. He’s not a good pitcher, but like Aaron Miles, we expected nothing, so the small contributions he’s made get him some minor credit. *note: numbers may be fabricated.)

Number of Ortizii: 0 (A++++)
Say what you will about this club, at least they’re not employing anyone named Ortiz who was last useful 6-8 years ago, much less multiple players like that.

Javy Guerra (B+) (1-0, 4 saves, 2.33 ERA, 4.01 FIP)
Guerra, like MacDougal all those years ago, is a perfect example of why we shouldn’t overrate saves. For a guy who walked 6.8/9 in the minors last year and was forced to the bigs simply because of injuries, he’s been fine. He’s keeping the ball in the yard, he’s cut down on the control issues, and he’s even managed to steal a few saves while serving as the last-ditch closer. As far as debuts go, his has been a successful one. Let’s just not go overboard in anointing him as the man in the 9th inning, because he hasn’t been that good – 13 K in 19.1 IP doesn’t thrill me – and in each of his last two saves, he loaded the bases before getting out of the jam. That’s not the kind of tightrope you can walk for very long.

Blake Hawksworth (B) (2-2, 3.00 WHIP, 4.12 FIP)
“Isn’t Ryan Theriot“, and that alone gets him a boost. Actually, I joke, but it’s sort of true: when healthy, Hawksworth has been a perfectly acceptable and average reliever, doing a decent job of keeping runners off the bases (WHIP of 1.000), and striking out more than double as he’s walked. Considering that Theriot is doing his usual “I’m not a very good baseball player, but I am short and white, and that counts for something, right?” routine in St. Louis, even just getting that moderate level of contribution in exchange is a big win.

Scott Elbert (B-) (0-1, 5.25 ERA, 2.54 FIP)
I know there’s been a lot of turnover in the bullpen this year, but Elbert is one of those guys where I constantly have to check if he’s still on the team or down in ABQ. I suppose that’s partically because he’s pitched just twice in the last two weeks, and partially because he’s rarely in for more than 2-3 batters at a time. As for his performance, he’s a bit of an oddity in that you’d expect a power lefty to be hell on lefty hitters, but he’s actually rocking a reverse split: lefties (.701 OPS) are actually doing more damage than righties (.561 OPS) against him. Overall, I guess you can say he’s been “acceptable”, in that he’s finally gained a foothold in the majors, but hasn’t exactly made us think he’s going to be a difference maker.

Then again, considering his mysterious disappearance at this time last year, even that is a massive step forward.

Ramon Troncoso (D) (0-0, 6.23 ERA, 4.92 FIP)
I know it’s popular to blame Torre for Troncoso’s downturn as well, and maybe that’s part of it, but I do remember writing a post last year that outlined how he had larger issues than overuse. Whatever it is, he’s barely a major league quality pitcher right now… which probably explains why he’s not in the major leagues. That’s what’ll happen when you aren’t striking anyone out and giving up an absurd amount of hits, though I’ll allow that since he was never a strikeout guy, pitching in front of a defense that does no favors probably doesn’t help.

Ronald Belisario (MIA)
Ha, no. There’s about as good of a chance that he pitches for the Dodgers again as there is that you’ll see Orel Hershiser or Don Drysdale out there.

Josh Lindblom (B+) (0-0, 1.69 ERA, 3.43 FIP)
Nearly two years after we first thought we might see him, Lindblom finally got the call this year, and so far, so good. It’s hard to make judgements based on just eight games, but he’s yet to allow more than one earned run in an appearance, and for now, that’s good enough.

Lance Cormier (dFa) (0-1, 9.88 ERA, 6.84 FIP)
I’m still convinced the only reason Cormier wasn’t DFA’d a week or two earlier than he eventually was (on May 24, when Rubby De La Rosa came up) is because he had a charity event for tornado victims set up at the stadium on May 15, and it would have been poor form to cut a guy just before or after that. I also like that we can say “nah, he wasn’t as bad as his ERA, look at his FIP” and while that’s true, even his FIP says he was awful.

Vicente Padilla (inc.) (0-0, 4.15 ERA, 2.61 FIP)
I sure do feel like we’ve talked about Padilla a lot this year for a guy who piched just 8.2 innings. First he was signed to a somewhat confusing 6th starter/longman/Broxton insurance role, in a move for depth I actually really liked. Then he required surgery for a forearm injury in the spring, preventing him from taking Garland’s rotation spot to start the year. He returned exceptionally quickly from that, taking over for the injured Broxton to nab three saves of varying quality in late April and early May, leading many to proclaim him the next big thing… until he returned to the DL with a recurrence of the arm injury. But the fun doesn’t stop there, because he was supposedly hours away from being activated in June before a neck injury flared up, leading to more surgery and probably the end of his season. Got all that? Phew.

Management

Don Mattingly (B+)
It may sound odd to praise a rookie manager when we weren’t fans of his hiring in the first place and when the club he’s leading is on pace for its worst finish in decades, but I don’t see how you pin much of this mess on Mattingly. He’s proven himself to be far more than a Joe Torre clone, in particular showing a nice willingness to be creative with his bullpen. It hasn’t been perfect, as some of his Navarro-related pinch-hitting escapades still burn, and he likes bunting more than I’d prefer, but he was handed a subpar roster that had its infield and bullpen totally destroyed by injuries, all as fans stayed away thanks to the off-field mess. It would be an impossible situation for any manager, and though the final record won’t be good, Mattingly has been a pleasant surprise, managing to keep the team playing hard through it all. Let’s just hope he doesn’t end up shouldering more of the blame than is needed when all is said and done.

Davey Mutha-F’ing-Lopes (A+^100)
I don’t usually grade the base coaches. Matt Kemp doesn’t usually lead the league in WAR. There you go.

Ned Colletti (F+)
Let’s quickly review all of the contracts handed out last winter by Colletti that were for at least $1m, shall we? Uribe, massive bust. Lilly, missing fewer bats than ever. Guerrier, adequate but overpaid and having one of the lesser years of his career. Garland and Padilla, both injured multiple times and likely out for the year. Barajas, crappier than usual and hurt. Thames, ineffective and injured. Navarro, hitting .183. To be fair, Kuroda has been very good, but it’s hard to say that without caveating that he clearly took a huge paycut to stay in LA.

There’s been a few positives – signing Billingsley was great, the no-risk NRI of Miles worked out, and trading Ryan Theriot for Hawksworth was a good move if you try to forget that it was necessitated by acquiring Theriot in the first place – and you want to be sensitive to the fact that the ownership mess has really put him in a bad position. But overall? Not good, Ned. Not good.

******

Tomorrow, the final review of the series: me.

Clayton Kershaw’s Best Start Ever Leads Group Effort

May 29, 2011 at 12:48 pm | Posted in Clayton Kershaw, Josh Lindblom, Kenley Jansen, Travis Schlichting | 30 Comments

Earlier this afternoon, I attended the Phillies/Mets game at CitiField, where Philadelphia starter Vance Worley lasted just three innings, allowing twelve hits and eight runs (five earned) in that time. In person, it was even worse than that; even the outs he was getting were hit hard. Who knew that it wouldn’t be close to being the worst starting pitching performance I’d see today?

The Dodgers saw to that by finally breaking out of their long offensive slump and pounding Florida starter Ricky Nolasco for fifteen hits and eight runs in five innings of work. The fifteen hits were the most by the Dodgers against any starting pitcher since 1982, and are the most allowed by a starting pitcher in Marlins history. Overall, they collected seventeen hits, their most since doing the same last May against Arizona.

In my mind, far more impressive than the group output – though that was badly, badly needed – is the fact that much of it came from names we haven’t seen contribute much this year. Rafael Furcal, Andre Ethier, and Jay Gibbons all had three hits, with Furcal starting off the scoring by hitting his first homer of the year in the bottom of the third. The value of Furcal at the top of this lineup can’t be understated – I don’t have the exact numbers in front of me, but the team scores approximately 47 more runs per game with him in than without him since he’s arrived – and his day is all the more welcome considering what a slow start he’d been off to since returning from injury. Gibbons, who had contributed barely anything all year, finally made some sort of case with his roster spot with his three hits, though he did misplay a flyout to left into a double on Clayton Kershaw‘s ledger. The breakout from Ethier counts as a new contribution as well, since he was hitting just .228/.315/.316 in May coming into today’s game. With Matt Kemp getting ejected (along with Don Mattingly) for arguing balls and strikes in the 4th inning and early-season star Jamey Carroll‘s last hit now a week in his rear-view mirror, the offense from some unexpected sources was absolutely vital.

But it didn’t stop there. Casey Blake had two hits, Dioner Navarro had two… and so did Kershaw, whose pitching performance absolutely should not get lost in the offensive outburst, though it probably will. It figures that on a day where the Dodgers finally break out the bats, they almost didn’t need to, because Kershaw was dominant. The line says he allowed two hits and issued a walk, which combined with ten strikeouts over nine shutout innings is fantastic enough, but even that’s not enough praise; Logan Morrison‘s double should have been a simple out, but dropped thanks to swirling winds in left field that Gibbons couldn’t handle.

Of Kershaw’s eight innings, he set down the Marlins 1-2-3 in five of them. Not once did the Marlins bring more than four men to the plate in an inning, and the only inning they even put more than one batter on base – the 7th – it was hardly Kershaw’s fault, as that was when Gibbons and Furcal each misplayed balls caught in the wind to left field.

This was Kershaw’s second career shutout, and as far as Game Score goes, it was his most dominating performance yet. His score for today was 92, and as you can see from his list heading into today, that puts this squarely at the top. It’s also the second time this season that Kershaw has rewritten his “top five greatest hits” list:

Rk	Date	Opp	Rslt	App,Dec	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	HR	Pit	GSc	2B
1	2010-05-09	COL	W 2-0	GS-8 ,W	8.0	2	0	3	9	0	117	84	0
2	2010-09-14	SFG	W 1-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	4	0	0	4	0	111	83	1
3	2009-04-15	SFG	W 5-4	GS-7	7.0	1	1	1	13	1	105	83	0
4	2009-08-08	ATL	L 1-2	GS-7	7.0	2	0	1	10	0	103	82	1
5	2011-05-13	ARI	W 4-3	GS-7 ,W	7.0	3	0	2	11	0	106	80	2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/29/2011.

Earlier today, Kershaw was tied for fifth on the baseball-reference pitcher NL WAR scoreboard with Jair Jurrjens and Ian Kennedy, just behind the injured Josh Johnson. This game ought to be enough to push him at least into third and possibly into second when b-r refreshes their standings overnight. With Kemp tied for the lead with Ryan Braun and Joey Votto on the batting side, that gives the Dodgers one of the most valuable duos in baseball leading their club.

All season long, we’ve worried that their production would be wasted by a supporting cast that just wasn’t up to the job. For one day, at least, this was a team-wide effort, and a great way to spend a holiday weekend.

******

The big news of the day, of course, was that Josh Lindblom was finally called up to the big club, with Kenley Jansen placed on the DL with shoulder inflammation. I say “finally”, because Lindblom was seemingly on the verge of making his debut as far back as spring of 2009. He just missed the cut, and when the club tried to turn him into a starter in the minors, it backfired terribly, leading to last year’s troubling AAA campaign where he allowed 13.5 hits per nine and ended with a 6.54 ERA in 40 games (10 starts). Back in AA this year and strictly as a reliever, he’s been striking out 12.2/9 and cutting down on the hits. Though it’s nice to see Lindblom finally make it, this is another blow to the bullpen, as Jansen had put together ten scoreless consecutive outings (and an 18/5 K/BB) before being touched in each of his last two.

It seems clear that the Dodgers are massively unimpressed by both the talent and environment in Albuquerque, at least when it comes to pitching prospects. Lindblom is now the third consecutive call-up to come from Chattanooga, following Javy Guerra and Rubby De La Rosa, and that’s where Jansen was sent when he was briefly demoted earlier this year as well.

Initially I was mildly bothered that Schlichting was DFA’d, since he’d shown flashes in his brief times up, but after checking the 40-man roster, it’s really a move that was unavoidable. Since the Dodgers have six players on the 15-man DL, and no obvious candidates to be moved to the 60-day DL, the 40-man roster is in a tight squeeze. Schlichting had been brutal in AAA this year anyway, walking more than he’d struck out with a high HR/9 rate. It’s probably likely that he doesn’t get claimed on waivers regardless, and it’s the right choice.

Crushed. Again.

May 23, 2011 at 8:28 pm | Posted in Andre Ethier, Clayton Kershaw, Kenley Jansen, Matt Kemp | 45 Comments

I had written an entire post about how the “stars and scrubs” makeup of this team had really shone through tonight, as Clayton Kershaw, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Jerry Sands nearly singlehandedly won the game without much help from the subpar rest of the roster.

That was going to be the idea…and then Kenley Jansen set fire to the 9th inning, leading to yet another crushing loss in what’s shaping up to be a long season of them. I want to get all torn up about this, but I just can’t. This isn’t a team that’s going anywhere good, so what’s another loss at this point? If anything, this just illustrates the long-held point that Jonathan Broxton isn’t the only one who can run into troubles in the 9th inning. You can say that Jansen got squeezed by the ump, and maybe he did, but it wasn’t the ump who allowed three hits in addition to a hit batter, and it wasn’t the ump who ignored the baserunners. I still have a very high opinion of Jansen’s future, but I guess we can’t forget that he’s still only a 23-year-old pitcher who’s less than two years off his position change.

Or maybe this season is just cursed. Whichever.

The original post remains below, because it was true for 8.2 innings.

******

We’ve long known that the current edition of the Dodgers were a team comprised of a small amount of top players and a larger amount of sub-replacement players, with much of the middle class being wiped out by injury. Never was that more evident than in tonight’s game, where the two big hits were delivered by Matt Kemp & Andre Ethier, and Clayton Kershaw delivered six one-run innings, numbers that could have even been better for him on both sides.

Kemp started off the fun with a no-doubter solo homer off of Houston starter Bud Norris in the second, the 100th of his career, which makes him the 25th Dodger to reach the century mark. He later added his 13th steal, against just three times being caught. That was all the Dodgers would get until a two-out rally the 7th inning, though Houston had tied it in the third largely due to a Bill Hall double which Jay Gibbons, subbing for Ethier in right field, really should have come down with.

Norris retired Gibbons and Jerry Sands to start the seventh, then allowed Dioner Navarro to hit a ground-rule double. Though allowing Navarro to hit an any-rule anything should have been a pretty clear sign that Norris needed to be removed immediately, he stayed in to intentionally walk Russ Mitchell to bring up Kershaw with two on and two out.

At this point, Kershaw had thrown just 84 pitches and had cruised through three clean innings after allowing the run in the third, and Don Mattingly had a decision to make. If this sounds familiar to you at all, it’s because he had a very similar decision to make in Kershaw’s last start out, choosing to remove him in the 5th inning with the bases loaded. That choice backfired immediately when Juan Castro couldn’t get the run home and later came back to haunt him when Lance Cormier was forced into a tie game in the 9th inning, and we all remember how that ended.

This situation was slightly different, as Kershaw had already gone six innings rather than five and it was a tie game rather than a deficit, but Mattingly made the same choice – removing Kershaw early in favor of the pinch-hitter. Here’s where the difference comes in: it’s one thing to lift Kershaw earlier than you’d like so you can hit the worst hitter in baseball… and entirely another thing to lift Kershaw earlier than you’d like so you can bring in Andre Ethier.

Ethier swung and missed at each of the first two pitches he saw before slapping a base hit to center field, scoring Navarro with the go-ahead run. (Mitchell also came in when center fielder Michael Bourn had difficulty picking up the ball, being charged with an error). That put the Dodgers up 3-1, a lead they would not relinquish until, well.. you know.

As you can see from the chart at right, courtesy FanGraphs, only three Dodger hitters contributed positive WPA (Win Percentage Added) scores tonight. (Yes, I see that James Loney is ever so slightly above the zero mark at .002. His one hit was a 40-foot swinging bunt up the third base line. It came in the midst of three groundouts in the sixth inning. I’m making an executive decision to ignore it.) Those three names? Obvious Star Andre Ethier, Obvious Star Matt Kemp… and Emerging Star Jerry Sands, who may not have had a hit tonight but walked three times, part of a streak in which he reached base nine times in ten plate appearances. Sands’ May line now stands at .289/.396/.467. That’s quality production on any team. On this one? It makes him a coming star.

Today’s Treat: My Face on Video

May 6, 2011 at 11:44 am | Posted in Jonathan Broxton, Kenley Jansen, MSTI media takeover | 34 Comments

This morning, SNY was kind enough to invite me to walk across the street and speak with Ted Berg on The Baseball Show, previewing the Dodgers / Mets series starting tonight. As usual, I spoke entirely too fast, and my name wasn’t pronounced quite correctly, but on the whole I think it went pretty well, and I hope to do it again. Good times.

(Having trouble embedding the actual video here, so this will link you over to the MetsBlog.com version of it).

Of course, the real news today is that Jonathan Broxton was indeed placed on the disabled list due to his elbow concerns, causing both Kenley Jansen to be recalled and my comment in the video that Broxton might be available this weekend to be immediately invalidated. Broxton to the DL was expected, but uncertain, after his MRI reportedly found no structural damage. Still, it didn’t come back 100% clean either – elbow bruise and bone spurs – but after a lifetime of throwing 90 MPH heat, you could find something in even the heathiest pitcher’s arm. So we’ll wait to see what’s really going on there, but at the very least, this gives him a chance to get out of the spotlight and recuperate. In the short term, it’s hard to argue that Jansen isn’t an upgrade over Broxton, even if Jansen’s one minor league appearance (three earned runs in one inning) didn’t go that smoothly.

I’m headed off to the game shortly. You’ll recognize me as the only person in the stadium who cares enough to yell at Aaron Miles.

Dodgers Swap Out Jansen for Kuo

May 1, 2011 at 11:15 am | Posted in Hong-Chih Kuo, Kenley Jansen | 24 Comments

Dylan Hernandez with some unexpected news:

The #Dodgers have reinstated LHP Hong-Chih Kuo and optioned RHP Kenley Jansen to Triple-A Albuquerque.

It’s great to have Kuo back, of course, assuming that he’s healthy and ready to go, which remains to be seen. It’s the demotion of Jansen that’s somewhat confusing. Obviously, his ERA of 7.43 is pretty ugly, though 9 of the 11 earned runs he’s allowed came in just two games – one of which was his season debut.

Since allowing four earned runs to the Giants on April 2, Jansen’s pitched in 12.1 innings over 10 games. In that time, he’s struck out 20 against 6 walks, allowing a line of .196/.288/.391. He did have a meltdown on April 19 against the Braves, giving up five earned runs in the 9th inning of a game that the Dodgers were already losing, but has been excellent in the three games since: 9 strikeouts and 2 walks in 4.2 innings, without a hit.

Yet Lance Cormier, who’s pitched just once in the last two weeks, and only once has made it through an appearance without giving up a run, remains. I assume that this falls under Ned Colletti’s usual m.o. of keeping control over as many players as possible, and I guess it’s not the worst thing in the world for Jansen to get more experience in a lower-pressure environment, but with the bullpen struggling as much as it has been, it certainly seems like an odd choice to send down the guy who’s striking out 14.85 men per nine innings. That’s the highest rate of anyone in baseball this year with at least 13 innings pitched, and it’s the 8th best seasonal rate in major league history (obviously, in a tiny sample size).

Jansen will be back soon, and Cormier, most likely, won’t be. So this isn’t a fatal, crushing mistake. It’s just an unexpected choice to look at your bullpen full of guys who don’t miss bats – like Matt Guerrier, Cormier, and lately Jonathan Broxton – and send down the one guy who really does.

Giants 10, Isotopes 0

April 2, 2011 at 4:24 pm | Posted in Kenley Jansen, Ted Lilly | 22 Comments

On an afternoon where the Dodgers ran out a lineup that featured only three of their usual starters, Ted Lilly was going to have to be all but perfect to outduel Matt Cain. That worked out more or less okay until the fifth inning, when Lilly allowed four runs to score on four singles and a balk, and that was that. Mike MacDougal, Kenley Jansen, and Lance Cormier all made their season debuts to finish out the loss. Cormier just barely managed to get through the final three innings, thus sparing us the entertainment value of seeing A.J. Ellis come in to relieve him.

Not that it really mattered, of course, because the JV offense managed just five hits off Cain – two of which didn’t even leave the infield. (Though it should be noted that Matt Kemp did continue his nice start with a hard-hit double to the gap, and that Andre Ethier eventually collected three singles.) If this post seems to be lacking gusto, well, it wasn’t a very exciting game.

Particularly troubling was Jansen’s disastrous sixth inning. After issuing a walk to Brandon Belt, his outing went RBI double, popout, walk, single (which could have easily been an error on Aaron Miles), RBI single, RBI single, strikeout, strikeout. It took him 42 pitches to get three outs, and he walks away with an ERA of 54. As I noted on Twitter at the time, because relievers generally don’t throw a ton of innings, it’ll take him weeks – if not months – to get that ERA down to a more palatable number, so even if he’s totally perfect from here on out, people will still see that high ERA on their TV graphics and think that he’s lousy. Hooray, ineffective statistics! Also not helping himself was Ivan DeJesus, who struck out twice more while going 0-4 with a throwing error.

Still, the Dodgers are guaranteed at least a series split as Hiroki Kuroda faces Barry Zito in the finale tomorrow night. Juan Uribe is expected to return to the lineup to hopefully add some much-needed offense; Ethier and James Loney are expected to go o-for-9 against the lefty.