Mike Scioscia's tragic illness

So How Good Does Matt Kemp’s Contract Look Now?

Back in November, the Dodgers locked up outfielder Matt Kemp for the next eight years for the enormous sum of $160 million. At the time, not only was it by far the largest in Dodger history, it was the seventh-largest contract in baseball history and the largest in National League history. While we noted that the deal wasn’t entirely without risk – Kemp was just one year off a hugely disappointing 2010 and tying up that much money in any single player can easily turn sour – we were generally very happy with the outcome. As I said at the time, “if you’re going to make that gamble, making it on an athletic outfielder that you know well and who is just entering his prime is a much smarter choice than doing it on a player already into his 30s who is an uncertain commodity.” Kemp ended up finishing second in an MVP race that he probably should have won, even before Ryan Braun‘s testing issues became public, and the combination of few available free-agent bats likely to be had next winter and Kemp’s youth meaning that he’s only signed through 34 made the deal seem extremely appealing.

Besides, beyond the obvious baseball reasons for needing to retain Kemp, this was a move that had to be made from a pure public relations standpoint. After all the garbage Frank McCourt has put fans through over the last few years, and considering that the Dodgers haven’t had a homegrown star stick with the team in decades – the last two players who made it ten years with the club were the decidedly non-elite Eric Karros & Dave Hansen, who each left after 2002 – the idea of letting Kemp walk was probably more than this fractured fanbase would have been able to handle. If you had to overpay slightly to avoid that, then so be it.

All of which is to say, at the time the deal was signed just before Thanksgiving, we were all pretty happy with it, one of the few Dodger roster moves this winter which was met with something other than disdain.

Two months later, Kemp’s contract has been absolutely blown away by the mega-deals received by Albert Pujols (ten years & between $246m-268m from the Angels, depending on incentives and personal-services deals) and the nine years and $214m Prince Fielder collected from Detroit yesterday. Considering what Kemp brings to the table that neither Pujols or Fielder do, the fact that the Dodgers kept him for $54m less than Fielder and about $100m less than Pujols – over a shorter term than either – makes the Kemp deal look even better than it does the day it was signed.

Compare Kemp to Pujols. As much as I love Kemp, it’s crazy to argue that he’s a superior or even equal hitter to Pujols, who will probably be one of the five best to ever play the game when he’s done. I mean, Pujols hit .299/.366/.541 with 37 homers last year, and people were complaining it was a down year; the man is a beast. But Pujols, who turned 32 earlier this month, is nearly five years older than Kemp, and perhaps more, if you believe the constant (yet unverified) rumors that his age may not be accurate. He’s a very good baserunner, but of course doesn’t offer close to the speed Kemp provides on the bases. While he’s an excellent defensive first baseman, one of the best in the game, the mere fact that he’s limited to the least-important defensive position curtails his value. You can argue both the accuracy of WAR and how it rates Kemp on defense, it’s for that reason that only once has Pujols had a season that beats Kemp’s 2011 in rWAR, back in 2003 when he put up an obscene 10.9 mark that ranks as the 16th-best season since World War II.

Younger, $100m cheaper, more dangerous on the basepaths, playing a far more valuable defensive position, and not coming off his worst (though of course, still great) season? I think I know which deal I’d rather have.

What about Fielder, whose own youth – born just four months ahead of Kemp in 1984 – was a major selling point for him? Fielder is of course an offensive force, since his .981 OPS last year was nearly the equal of Kemp’s and because has surpassed that mark twice before. The obvious big problem with Fielder is that not only is he a first baseman, he’s a bad first baseman, ranking as perhaps the worst in the sport since he became a full-time player in 2006. While his youth is an asset, his body type most certainly is not; you could argue that on hitting alone, he’s maybe better than Kemp, but when you consider baserunning and the enormous defensive gap between the two, Kemp seems like a better bet for the future. Not only that, Fielder is getting a year more and comes with $54m in additional risk.

I liked Kemp’s deal a whole lot in November, and I like it even more now. That’s in large part because unlike Pujols and Fielder, Kemp had not yet reached free agency, when the ability to negotiate with other clubs would almost certainly have inflated his price. Great job by the Dodgers to get him secured now, before an entire season of questions about his status and an even bigger payday next winter.

Matt Kemp Loses MVP, Given Extra Draft Pick in Lottery Round

I hate to admit that this feels somewhat overshadowed by all of the collective bargaining ridiculousness which has dropped over the last hour (and I’ll get to that separately), but as we basically expected, Ryan Braun has defeated Matt Kemp for the MVP Award. I stand by my feeling that this is basically because Milwaukee made the playoffs and the Dodgers did not, thus somehow making Braun a more “valuable” player, but let’s not forget that Braun did have a fantastic season and actually did top Kemp in wOBA. He’s a worthy winner, and this doesn’t diminish Kemp’s season by even a little in my eyes.

Here’s the top ten results:
1. Ryan Braun 388 (20)
2. Matt Kemp 332 (10)
3. Prince Fielder 229 (1)
4. Justin Upton 214 (1)
5. Albert Pujols 166
6. Joey Votto 135
7. Lance Berkman 118
8. Troy Tulowitzki 69
9. Roy Halladay 52
10. Ryan Howard

With the exception of Fielder over Upton, the top eight seem fine to me, with little to complain about. That said, I have to laugh at the idea that Halladay got more MVP support than Clayton Kershaw… despite losing to Kershaw in the Cy Young balloting. Kershaw finished 12, though at least one voter picked him as high as fifth. Also, Ryan Howard getting any support at all is ludicrous, with one writer choosing him fourth, but even I won’t spend too much time whining about the tenth-place finisher on a flawed ballot.

Congratulations to both Braun and Kemp. Now let’s work on finding out who those six writers were who didn’t choose Kemp first or second, shall we?

Matt Kemp Probably Isn’t Going to Win the MVP, and That’s Okay

At 2pm ET / 11am PT on Tuesday, the Baseball Writers Association of America will announce the winner of the 2011 NL MVP, and that winner is most likely going to be Milwaukee’s Ryan Braun. We’ll all be quite upset about the fact that Matt Kemp didn’t win the award we all believe he deserves, arguing that it’s unfair to penalize Kemp for being surrounded by an inferior supporting cast while Braun had the luxury of playing with teammates like Prince Fielder, Zack Greinke, Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart, and John Axford, and we’ll gripe that the writers don’t quite understand what the term “valuable” means.

I’m here to say that’s okay.

No matter what happens, Kemp had an absolutely fantastic season, one of the best in Dodger history. Do we really need that to be validated by the writers, some of whom hardly still follow baseball and many of whom probably don’t stay up late enough to see past the third inning of most Dodger games? It’d be nice to see Kemp get the award, but we’ve long known how fantastically flawed this process is; if you need any further proof of that, look no further than the fact that Kemp and Andre Ethier won Gold Gloves this year, or that Justin Verlander won the AL MVP despite arguably not even being the best pitcher in his own league, or that Ian Kennedy and Michael Young each received absolutely indefensible first-place votes for NL Cy Young and AL MVP, respectively. (As Baseball America‘s Ben Badler cracked wise on Twitter, “Michael Young wasn’t even the Rangers’ most valuable Michael.”) We looked at this back on October 1 when I quoted several writers (granted, most of whom don’t have MVP votes) who acknowledged Kemp’s great year yet admitted they’d disqualify him because the Dodgers “weren’t in contention”. Feelings may have changed since then, yet remember that voting was done before the playoffs started, so this vote was locked in stone nearly two months ago.

It’d be nice if Kemp won the award, particularly to pair with Clayton Kershaw‘s Cy Young, but I don’t really need it to know that the Kemp we witnessed in 2011 was pure greatness. The writers will do what the writers will do, quite incorrectly in my opinion, and it’s hardly like Braun didn’t also have a fantastic season – no shame in losing to a player like that.

In any case, I’ve taken the liberty of preparing a cheat sheet for tomorrow’s results:

If Kemp wins the NL MVP, celebrate appropriately.

If he finishes second to Braun because writers believed Braun had a superior season, politely acknowledge that Braun also had a fantastic season and is a worthy winner.

If he finishes second to Braun and it becomes clear that the only reason this happened is because the Dodgers weren’t in the playoff hunt, sadly shake your head at the foolishness, yet don’t take it too seriously.

But if he finishes anywhere below second? Well, then, do what you must, and don’t expect me to talk you out of it.

Matt Kemp Officially Agrees to New Contract

Right about now at Dodger Stadium, the team is preparing to make the announcement we’ve been waiting for all week – confirmation of Matt Kemp‘s new eight-year, $160m contract. Dylan Hernandez has the yearly breakdown:

2012: $10m (includes $2m signing bonus + $2m deferred to 2013)
2013: $20m
2014: $21m
2015: $21m
2016: $21.5m
2017: $21.5m
2018: $21.5m
2019: $21.5m
Signing bonus: $2m

Kemp reportedly does not have a no-trade clause included, though that’s largely irrelevant; either he’ll play well enough that the Dodgers won’t want to move him or the dollar figure will make him impossible to move anyway. (Unless Tony Reagins gets another GM gig, I suppose.)

The big item there is that Kemp will count as only $8m against this year’s budget, a big deal since he might have otherwise made in the $14m-16m range through arbitration. With the concerns about what’s left to fit under the 2012 payroll ceiling, taking back a few extra million might just be the difference between Hiroki Kuroda or pretending I like Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang or Jeff Francis. As for the deal itself, having had a few days to digest this, my feelings haven’t really changed. This is an enormous amount of money, by far the biggest in both team & league history, and there’s inherent risk that goes along with that. But if you’re going to make that gamble, making it on an athletic outfielder that you know well and who is just entering his prime is a much smarter choise than doing it on a player already into his 30s who is an uncertain commodity. (Yes, I’m talking about Jayson Werth‘s seven-year deal, though others apply as well.) As risks go, this is among the safer ones, though it’d be nice if the contract also contained language restricting Davey Lopes from ever wandering more than 50 feet from Dodger Stadium for the rest of his life.

Besides, though there’s no arguing the shocking dollar amounts here, this isn’t likely to be the biggest or even the second-biggest contract signing of the offseason. Albert Pujols could get north of $200m, and Prince Fielder is still targeting Ryan Howard‘s $25m/year as his baseline. Once we see where those land, ~$20m/year for a player who is neither over 30 (like Pujols), terrifyingly built (like Fielder), or tethered to first base (like both) could seem almost like a bargain. Even if Kemp doesn’t exactly repeat his fantastic 2011 every season, he’s still likely to be the 4-5 win player that it’d take to make this contract worthwhile.

Taking a larger view, this signing was more important than just baseball, anyway. Sure, locking up your MVP candidate center fielder is fantastic, but as I hardly need to remind you, the last two years have been nightmarish for the Dodgers and their fans. Letting their most marketable homegrown star walk for nothing – or even having to deal with an entire 2012 of “is this Kemp’s last season?” - would have been yet another massive PR disaster after dozens upon dozens of them.

If that required paying a premium, well, so be it. It’s a good day to be Matt Kemp, I’m guessing; it’s definitely a good day to be a Dodger fan.

Report: Dodgers Close to Signing Matt Kemp (Updated)

Update, 11:22am PT: SI’s Jon Heyman reports that the Dodgers and Kemp are in agreement, pending a physical, and that Kemp would recieve a full no-trade clause. (As though the numbers involved here aern’t enough of a no-trade clause on their own. Earlier this morning, I received a press release that Kemp would be joining Frank McCourt to dedicate a new Dodger Dream Field in Compton at 1pm PT today; Steve Dilbeck notes that Kemp was not originally scheduled to attend, but has been added to the event. Sounds like as good a place to announce a contract as any to me, right?)

Tim Brown, hit me with some good news:

Confirming @Ken_Rosenthal get, the Dodgers and Kemp are getting close. 8 years and $160m is about right.

First and foremost, put aside the numbers for a second. Yes. So much yes. If it happens, this would be such a big get for the Dodgers for so many reasons. With all of the McCourt garbage of the last few years, with all of the rumors that the Dodgers would be completely neutralized and unable to act this winter, with all of the worry that Kemp & Andre Ethier and maybe even Clayton Kershaw would be gone before this mess is all sorted out, this one move could be an immense positive to fans and even players who have written this franchise off. It’s a sign that no matter what else happens, Kemp will be here long into the future, and as the ownership situation gets closer to being resolved, it gives us more hope that the Dodgers could once again be open for business. As I’ve been saying for weeks, this is the top priority of the offseason, and if it happens then the winter is a success, no matter how many silly contracts the Dodgers hand out to mediocre veterans.

From a more historic level, this could potentially keep Kemp in Dodger blue until he’s 34. That’s great because you’re buying most of his prime, not most of his decline, but it’s also a phenomenal sign because the Dodgers have done a poor job in recent years of keeping their own young star players. Mike Piazza? Traded to the Marlins. Adrian Beltre? Lost via free agency to Seattle. The club hasn’t had a home-grown player stay with the team for at least ten seasons since Eric Karros & Dave Hansen left after 2002, and neither of those are guys were exactly franchise cornerstones. Kemp could potentially be a Dodger for the first 14 years of his career, becoming the hero of a generation of Dodger fans.

Of course, you can’t completely ignore the numbers, and Aaron Gleeman notes the risk at NBC’s Hardball Talk:

$160 million would be tied for the seventh-largest contract in MLB history, matching Manny Ramirez’s deal with the Red Sox in 2001. Troy Tulowitzki recently agreed to a six-year, $119 million extension with the Rockies that brought Colorado’s total commitment to the shortstop to $157.5 million over 10 seasons, but unlike Kemp he was under team control for several more seasons and not on the verge of cashing in as an in-his-prime a free agent.

Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Joe Mauer, Mark Teixeira, and CC Sabathia are the only players to get a contract surpassing $160 million.

Make no mistake, it’s a ton of money, and with Kershaw about to get expensive, there’s a definite danger in tying up so much money in one player. (I’m also waiting for the “yeah, and it’ll be backloaded to be 1/2/3/4/5/48/48/48 over the life of the contract” jokes, though it would almost certainly have some sort of backloading.) In this case, an overpay is warranted, simply because this club could not withstand the PR hit of losing Kemp for nothing after next season. The Dodgers simply had to do something to win back fans, and while the news that McCourt would sell is welcome, it’s still something that takes place in faraway court rooms for most fans. This would be a real, tangible commitment to putting a winning team on the field. Not that there aren’t concerns; you wonder how long Kemp can really stay in center (though it’s not like having a strong-armed power-hitting right fielder is such a terrible thing), and there are those who have noted that Kemp is only one year off a 2010 that many termed as a disappointment. Like there would be with any large investment, this contract wouldn’t be 100% free of doubt.

On the other hand, is it even really an overpay? Kemp’s an MVP candidate in his age-26 season, and he’s passing up the opportunity to go out on the free market next year and get wined and dined by the Red Sox & Yankees (among others), who would surely be salivating at the prospect of adding a player with his rare blend of speed and power. An average of $20m/year, considering what Prince Fielder & Albert Pujols are likely to get to play a far less important position, could be seen as almost a bargain. (Okay, almost.)

I try to keep things subjective around here, wanting to make decisions more with my head than with my heart. But in this case, they’re one and the same – let’s make this happen, and the dollars be damned. This team needs Matt Kemp, and not just because of what it means on the field.

Dodgers Can’t Hand Out Big Contracts, Unless They Can

ESPN/LA:

The Los Angeles Dodgers will not be able to bid on free agents such as Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols until the team is sold, a source close to Dodgers owner Frank McCourt told ESPN.com on Wednesday.

The team is expected to sell for in the neighborhood of $1.2 billion, the source said, adding the process will likely take 4-6 months, spilling into 2012 and further reducing the Dodgers’ chances of acquiring players through free agency.

Tony Jackson:

The agent for Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder and National League Most Valuable Player candidate Matt Kemp said Wednesday that talks on a long-term contract extension for his client are moving in a positive direction and that he is optimistic an agreement will be reached.

Dave Stewart, Kemp’s San Diego-based agent and himself a former Dodgers pitcher, said his discussions with Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti have been positive and productive.

“I don’t think that it’s going to be difficult, I really don’t,” Stewart said. “I think we should be able to come to something. I have talked with Ned on a few occasions. We have covered some ground, and hopefully, we will be able to put this thing to bed soon.”

Colletti also characterized the negotiations as moving forward.

“We have had some constructive conversations,” Colletti said. “Those conversations have been a little more substantive of late.

Obviously, the difference here is that Kemp is a current player while Pujols, Fielder and others would be new additions, but that’s really just semantics: no one’s arguing that Kemp isn’t in line for a massive contract of his own.

MSTI’s 2011 in Review: Center Field

This is the one you’ve been waiting for, friends. No moaning about overpaid veterans or underperforming rookies, no noting that the position as a whole finished in the bottom 10% of baseball for OPS… this is just pure, uncut greatness. Enjoy.

Matt Kemp (MV-F’ing-P)
.324/.399/.586 .986 39hr 40sb 10.0 WAR

Since Matt Kemp is the only center fielder we’re going to be talking about today – he did play 1380 of the team’s 1432 defensive innings, after all – this is going to be a long one, and I’m going to start by tooting my own horn a little bit, since I was one of the seemingly few who was all but guaranteeing that Kemp would have a big year, even as far back as last season.

“We Should Probably Leave Matt Kemp Alone”, October 3, 2010:

No one doubts the talent is there, and Ned Colletti claims he has no plans to move him. His clashes with the current coaching staff have been well-documented – though he seems to have a good relationship with Don Mattingly – and if there’s anyone who looks to benefit from the post-Torre era, it might just be Kemp, my early choice for the “No, Chad Billingsley’s career wasn’t dead after one bad year either, now was it?” award next year.

“Six Reasons for Optimism in 2011″, February 14, 2011:

So why am I high on Kemp? It’s because all of the signs are pointing in the right direction. Remember, even though I’m not going to defend his 2010 production, you’d think by the way people talked about him that he hit like Garret Anderson. This is still a guy who set a career high in homers and had an OPS above league-average. If that’s his “disaster” year, that’s still a guy who’s pretty special. Besides, any and all excuses are now gone. Think that his troubles last year were due to work ethic issues? He’s taken responsibility. Think that he spent too much time with Rhianna? I don’t agree, but they’re split up now. Think that he didn’t get along with Joe Torre? He’s got a good relationship with Don Mattingly. Think that his issues with the rest of the coaching staff last year were reflected on the field? As you’ll see in a second, that staff has largely turned over. Instead of cranky Bob Schaefer and Larry Bowa, he has baserunning guru Davey Lopes.

Again, not defending Kemp’s reaction, but it’s hard to ignore that after his scorching April last year, he headed downhill at just about the time Ned Colletti oddly called him out in April. Then, as it became clear that Torre & crew wouldn’t be back in 2011, he ended the year by homering in five games in a row. That’s got to be a pretty nice taste in your mouth as you head into the offseason.

Kemp’s in his age-26 year this season, and in addition to playing for a contract, he’s got to know that many view this as a make-or-break season for him after his turbulent 2010. I think we all know that regardless of the moves the club has made this offseason, 2011 largely depends on Kemp’s resurgence. I won’t pretend I’m not at all biased here, but I’m squarely in his corner as far as expecting a breakout 2011.

“Matt Kemp Is Going to Destroy Worlds”, March 24, 2011:

I do want to take this opportunity to reiterate something optimistic that I’ve been saying all winter: Matt Kemp is going to have a monster year.

I realize it’s spring, and that everyone has a nice, rosy outlook this time of the year. That’s fine, and it’ll take more than some spring dingers and saying the right things to prove Kemp right. But the signs are all there for a massive year – no one’s questioned his talent, but now he’s motivated to prove himself, with distractions gone and the right instruction in place.

Matt Kemp is still just 26. The two-year contract he signed after 2009 is up this year. He’s got a lot to prove – and mark my words, he’s going to do it.

After getting on base four times in the season opener, it took Kemp all of one additional game on April 1 to show us that this was going to be a season worth watching:

But the story – beyond the continually inept San Francisco defense – continues to be Matt Kemp, who doubled in the first run of the game in the 3rd, made a sliding catch in the 8th, and basically manufactured the second Dodger run in the 6th inning all by himself. With the Dodgers up 1-0, he led off with a single. Marcus Thames followed by grounding out to Pablo Sandoval at third base; when Sandoval threw Thames out at first, Kemp shocked the stadium by rounding second and heading straight to third, putting himself in position to score on James Loney‘s sacrifice fly.

In previous years, it was the kind of play that would kick off a shitstorm of comments about foolish decisions on Kemp’s part. This year? When he made it safely to third, I tweeted that whatever Davey Lopes was being paid, it needed to be tripled, and I’m pretty sure that nothing I’ve ever said in that medium has ever generated such an overwhelmingly positive response. Kemp has now been on base six of his eight times up this year, and while we should be cautious not to overreact after just two games, he’s looked better than we could have ever imagined. Hey, anyone miss Joe Torre and Bob Schaefer and Larry Bowa? Yeah, me neither.

Kemp hit .368/.443/.613 in April with six homers – only his third best month by OPS, by the way – and while I’ll try to keep this article under a billion words by not noting every single post in which he was mentioned, I can’t help but share with you this item from April 17, a post titled after one of Vin Scully’s best calls of the season – “They Pitched To the One Guy Who Could Beat Them, And He Does“:

MATT F’ING KEMP, LADIES AND GENTLEMEN.

——

Now down a run in the bottom of the 9th, Andre Ethier started it off with a double off of lefty Trever Miller, which by itself is an extraordinary event that shouldn’t be forgotten, though it probably will. With Ethier on second and Tony LaRussa coming out to wave in Ryan Franklin, I said this:

No pressure, Kemp, but you either hit a walkoff homer here or the Dodgers lose. Just sayin’.

I was joking, but only kind of. Following Kemp were Loney and Uribe, who combined to go 1-6 with three whiffs, further pushing them up next to the McCourts on the public enemy lists of Dodger fans. After them, it was Rod Barajas, whose .188 is by far the best of the three.

So you can pitch to those three guys, none of whom are acting like major league hitters right now, or you can pitch to Kemp, who’s only hitting like Mickey Mantle times Roy Hobbs multiplied by Ted Williams with a splash of Darryl Strawberry in the softball episode of “The Simpsons” that gives this blog its name. I get that you don’t generally want to intentionally put the winning run on base, but I also don’t see how you can let Franklin – who, with today’s loss, has now tied the record for most blown saves in a team’s first 16 games – pitch to the hottest player in baseball, as opposed to three of the worst hitters in baseball.

Franklin’s final pitch ended up in the stands, and the Dodgers avoid the sweep as the legend of Matt Kemp continues to grow.

As usual, Vin Scully put it best:

“They pitched to the one guy who could beat them, and he does.”

And how. Matt Kemp, I think I love you.

Of course, as Kemp and Andre Ethier excelled in the early part of the season, the rest of the team stagnated around them. That wasn’t Kemp’s problem, though, and by early June we were already thinking about what kind of team records he might be in position to attack:

After yesterday‘s two homer, six RBI outburst, Matt Kemp is currently on pace for an absolutely ridiculous season. No, really; he’d end the year with a .318/.395/.576 line, 41 homers, 38 steals (8 times caught), and a 151/74 K/BB ratio. While it’s still early and there’s hardly any sort of guarantee that he reaches those totals, we’re beyond the silly season of two homers on Opening Day setting a pace of 324 for the year, and we have enough data to know that what we’re seeing from him is for real. (It’s at this point that I’ll happily remind that I spent most of last fall and winter predicting a huge breakout year from him, though I’ll admit this is even beyond what I’d hoped for.)

If Kemp continues this tear, these team records are within his reach:

* Best offensive season by a Dodger center fielder.
* Most homers in a season, non-crazy-offensive-environment-of-early-2000s division.
* Top five most valuable season in team history.
* RBI by a Los Angeles Dodger, non-Tommy Davis-unreal-fluke-year-division.

See that projected line in the quote above? He nailed it almost exactly. As June went on, I found myself unable to stop writing about Kemp, who had his best month at an absurd .375/.472/.795 (1.268) and nine homers, despite dealing with a minor leg injury.

“Even Matt Kemp Can’t Save This Mess”, June 9, 2011:

With the Dodgers up 4-0 five innings into the game, I started thinking about what I might want to write about tonight. Initially, this post was going to be titled “Matt Kemp Is A Shiny Golden God”, as he’d homered and tripled to drive in three of the four runs. (He’d later add a double, too.)

“The Legend of Matt Kemp Grows”, June 10, 2011:

About an hour before the first pitch, Matt Kemp was scratched with a sore left hamstring. For 8 1/3 innings, we watched along with him as the Dodger offense, robbed of their main threat, snoozed through another game. After Andre Ethier struck out to start the ninth, the Dodgers had made 25 outs and managed just three hits, two by Dee Gordon. Not that this impending loss was on the offense alone, of course; Chad Billingsley gave up thirteen hits, including seven singles and five runs in the sixth inning alone, and the Dodger defense was generously charged with only two errors.

With none on and one out in the ninth, down six runs, Don Mattingly sent Kemp to the plate. I’ll admit that at the time, I scoffed at the idea of risking Kemp’s health in a lost game, seemingly for the sake of maintaining his MLB-best consecutive games streak. If Kemp is lost for any period of time, a season that’s already in serious trouble – the Dodgers did enter the day in last place, after all – would be all but finished.

Kemp stepped to the plate, an otherwise meaningless at-bat in a long, trying season… and absolutely murdered a baseball. No, really; Kemp crushed this one beyond the left field bleachers. I’ve included a picture of Coors Field at the right here to illustrate just how massive of a blast it takes to do that, and he did it with a sore leg, coming off the bench cold, down six runs. When we look back upon Kemp’s 2011, quickly growing into a season for the ages, we’re going to remember a lot of moments. This is going to be near the top of the list.

A week later, I looked at how much it might cost to sign Kemp to a long-term deal. I settled on starting with 5/$80m, a number which I admit seems quite low now, but remember that at the time he’d had just two good months after his disappointing 2010, and 1.5 years of team control remaining. I think it’s clear that it’s $100m+ at this point.

Kemp’s July was his worst month of the year, at .274/.324/.453, though it wasn’t without its moments. He was voted as a starter into the All-Star Game, and he participated in the Home Run Derby. His midseason grade here was predictably giddy:

Matt Kemp (A+++) (.313/.398/.584 22hr 27sb 5.7 WAR)
I know you come here for informed baseball analysis and all (uh, I hope), and I could write 10,000 words on why Kemp is awesome. I will at some point, and 9,990 of those words will probably be about how I always said that he’d have a monstrous season this year, even as half the city was tearing him apart last year. There will be a time for that sort of insight, but for now, let’s leave it at this: 91 games into the season, Kemp has 5.7 WAR. That puts him on pace for about 9.9 WAR over the full season… a mark bettered by just two Dodgers in history. Yeah. His season is that good. Remember when everyone wanted to trade him, secure in the knowledge that he had neither the baseball IQ or work ethic to become a star? Yeah, me neither.

Kemp ended up with 10.0 rWAR on the dot, making his season the third most valuable in club history behind Jackie Robinson’s 1949 and Adrian Beltre‘s 2004. He continued his rampage against Arizona at the end of July, prompting me to post:

So much for that mini-slump Matt Kemp was supposedly stuck in during the early-to-mid part of July, right? Kemp entered tonight having reached base ten times over his previous five games, including three doubles, and then outdid himself in the 9-5 win over Arizona by driving in the first five runs on a single and a three-run homer – in addition to a nice diving catch in the top of the 7th. How ridiculous is Kemp right now? After the catch, Sports Illustrated‘s Jon Heyman actually tweeted that as far as he’s concerned, the best player in baseball right now is either Kemp or Toronto’s Jose Bautista, who’s sporting a line of something like .682/.951/2.933.  High praise indeed, even if it’s probably not accurate, almost enough to not make you want to cry when reading Ramona Shelburne’s account of how Ned Colletti’s hands are tied by the McCourt mess in signing Kemp to the long-term deal he so clearly deserves.

Not only did Kemp not slow down, he got better as the NL MVP quickly turned into a two-man race between himself and Milwaukee’s Ryan Braun. On August 22nd, Don Mattingly moved Kemp up from cleanup to third for the first time all year. The move coincided with the start of the team’s longest winning streak, and as good as Kemp was hitting cleanup (.322/.394/.569), he was even better at #3 (.331/.418/.647). His heroics continued in late August, as he picked up his 100th RBI on his 31st dinger of the year, and on into September, which was behind only June as far as monthly OPS. Though we rooted for Kemp to win the Triple Crown, the batting crown just wasn’t to be, not that that’s in any way a black mark on Kemp; he finished the year with six homers in his last eleven games, including a particularly mammoth shot on September 26th, and clubbing his 39th on his next-to-last plate-appearance of the season. (Thanks, never made-up Washington rain out.)

While Kemp fell just short of the Triple Crown and is probably going to finish a close second to Braun for the MVP, his season was all we’d hoped it could be and more. Let me put it this way – I was totally positive that Kemp would have a big year, but even I didn’t see this coming. A big step forward, sure.  A season that ranked among the all-time greats from the long history of this franchise, showing improvement in every single facet of the game, from offense to baserunning to defense? A bit beyond my expectations. For a season destroyed by off-field embarrassment and on-field misery, Kemp’s amazing performance was often the only thing that made this team watchable for the first four months, at least on the days Clayton Kershaw wasn’t pitching.

Well done, Matt. Well done. (You too, Davey.) Now let’s get you paid.

******

Next! What’s more painful, Ethier’s knee or his mouth? Juan Rivera, savior-ish! Trent Oeltjen, space-filler! It’s right field!

Maybe Don’t Get Your Hopes Up For Matt Kemp Winning the MVP

…at least if the majority of voters are thinking like Buster Olney of ESPN, Jon Heyman & Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated, and others…

Olney:

For his work, and for his importance to the Brewers’ success, Braun should be the NL MVP; Matt Kemp had a spectacular season for the Dodgers, but Los Angeles — hampered by ownership issues and the team’s inability to spend on needed improvements last offseason — never contended this year.

Heyman, making a great case for Kemp:

3. Matt Kemp, Dodgers. He came close to the Triple Crown, leading the league with 39 home runs and 126 RBIs while falling 13 points short with his .324 batting average despite playing in a pitchers’ park with virtually no lineup protection (he was intentionally walked 24 times). Throw in 40 stolen bases in 51 attempts plus above average defense in centerfield and it’s fair to say he was the league’s best player. But the question will be: How much better was he than Braun and Fielder?

Verducci:

Kemp has put up a monster season with MVP numbers, leading the league in WAR, runs, total bases, home runs and RBIs. But his team, the Dodgers, didn’t play a meaningful game for the last two-thirds of the season. Los Angeles was nine games out by the middle of June.

And this business that Kemp had no help in the lineup? Baloney. Kemp batted with 87 more runners on base than did Braun. Kemp had 24 more plate appearances with runners in scoring position — and Braun was the better hitter in those spots (.347-.327). The seasons of Kemp and Braun are too close not to give it to the guy who delivered the most value in terms of context.

Dave Sheinin, Washington Post (who didn’t even pick Kemp in the top three on 9/22):

Matt Kemp is to the NL what Jose Bautista was to the AL — the undisputed best everyday player in the league. But while Kemp still has a shot at the Triple Crown, his Dodgers didn’t play a single meaningful game in the second half. And I’m sorry, but that speaks to a player’s relative value — as long as we understand winning championships to be the ultimate goal. And so, in an otherwise wide-open field, it is Braun who stands out, putting up what must be one of the quietest 30-30 seasons (home runs and stolen bases) in history. As of this writing, he was also second behind Kemp in WAR and first in slugging percentage, OPS and runs scored. Upton, meantime, wins the narrative prize: He has almost singlehandedly carried the surprising D’backs to the NL West title. He has a 145 OPS+; no one else in Arizona’s lineup goes higher than 122.

Jayson Stark, ESPN:

So that brings me to Braun. He could wind up leading the league in hitting, slugging, OPS and extra-base hits. He’s going to land in the top five in runs, total bases, on-base percentage, RBIs, doubles and average with men in scoring position. And he’s tossed in 30-30 club bonus points for our voting enjoyment. When you add it all together, what do you get? An incredible offensive season. That’s what. How many guys hit .335, slug .601, and go 30-30 in the same season? The only two players who have done it are Larry Walker and Ellis Burks, both of whom pulled it off for the pre-humidor Rockies. So don’t try to tell us Braun’s year pales against Kemp’s, OK?

FanGraphs tells us he’s hit better than Kemp, been a more productive baserunner than Kemp and actually compiled a better ultimate zone rating in the outfield than Kemp. So a big chunk of the reason Kemp leads him in wins above replacement is an adjustment for the importance of the positions they play. I understand that thinking. And I understand that Braun has Prince Fielder hitting behind him. But I also understand this: Kemp’s team basically got eliminated from any kind of contention by Father’s Day. So if I’m looking at two players who have had very, very, very similar seasons — and one of them has done what he’s done in an atmosphere where every single game mattered — that’s a difference-making ingredient for me. That’s how I define “valuable.” So that’s how I’ll vote. But I finally did figure out why that beam of light never arrived with the right answer. Because in this debate, there’s no wrong answer. Just different opinions.

Tracy Ringolsby, Fox Sports:

3. Matt Kemp, center fielder, Los Angeles. His Triple Crown bid was intriguing, but the Dodgers were never a factor in the NL West, and it is the Most Valuable Player, not the Player of the Year. Ted Williams actually won two Triple Crowns and didn’t win an MVP either time.

Now, we know the “Dodgers didn’t play any meaningful games” is a complete fallacy; looking at it from the other direction, we also know that the Brewers were up by as much as 10.5 games in early September and probably still win the division without Braun simply based on Fielder, the strength of their starting rotation, and the weak NL Central. It’s hard to say that makes him the “most valuable”, particularly, as someone asked me on Twitter, when Fielder is in the top three conversation as well, because how can Braun be so valuable if Fielder is also that valuable too?

To be fair, I have cherry-picked the above quotes, because Keith Law of ESPN, Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com, Anthony Witrado of The Sporting News, Tyler Kepner of the New York Times, and even Pirates pitcher Paul Maholm – among many others – have come out in support of Kemp. And like I’ve said before, Braun did have a fantastic season, so there’s no shame in coming in second to him, which is what I believe will happen. It’d just be nice if the voters could focus on what happened between the lines – if you honestly believe Braun was better, fine – and not on the things that the players have no control over, like having Fielder, Rickie Weeks, & Corey Hart helping your team win rather than James Loney, Aaron Miles, and Tony Gwynn.