MSTI’s 2010 in Review: Relievers, Part 5
November 22, 2010 at 8:51 am | Posted in Octavio Dotel, Ronald Belisario, Russ Ortiz | 19 CommentsThis is it – we made it! After slogging through all of the Jack Taschners and Nick Greens, we’re finally at the end of the line as far as player reviews go. Unfortunately, these three aren’t pretty.
Ronald Belisario (D)
5.04 ERA, 4.31 FIP, 6.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, -0.4 WAR
You know, part of the reason that we had to suffer through two different awful Ortizes on the Opening Day roster is because Ronald Belisario wasn’t there taking up the roster spot he’d otherwise have been assured of. For that sin alone, he deserves his F and then some. Of course, there’s a lot more to it than that. Belisario was a completely out-of-nowhere contributor to the 2009 bullpen, and he was expected to be a main cog in the 2010 crew.
That was before he got stuck in South America with visa problems for the second year in a row. There was a ton of back-and-forth about where the fault really belonged there, but none of it mattered; Belisario missed all of camp, and had to spend weeks in extended spring training trying to catch up. It was April 21 by the time he made his season debut, an absence exacerbated by Hong-Chih Kuo starting the year on the disabled list.
The layoff clearly hurt him, as he allowed seven earned runs over 7.2 innings in his first seven games of the year. But he got back into gear once May began, and was excellent for the next two months – between May 6 and July 5, he allowed just 8 ER over his next 28 IP, with a 21/9 K/BB ratio. That stretch included 19 consecutive games without allowing more than one earned run. Belisario had proven he wasn’t a fluke, and could be just as effective as he’d been in 2009. Except on July 7…
Eric Stephen (a blogger!) scoops the “real” media with some out-of-nowhere news:
Ronald Belisario placed on restricted list for personal reasons (!!!) to make room for Carlos Monasterios, who was activated from DL.
We have no idea what those reasons are yet, so while I’ll note his DUI last winter and two late arrivals to camp in a row thanks to visa issues, we can’t really speculate on what’s going on yet. (That’s your job, commenters.)
Initial reports were that he was entered in a substance abuse facility, though we never did find out for sure what happened. Belisario missed over a month, and once again he was rusty upon his return, allowing nine earned runs in his first three games back. The second of those games was particularly painful, and indirectly led to Jonathan Broxton losing his closer’s job:
All I ask is this: while you burn him in effigy, you don’t ignore the fact that Ronald Belisario faced five men in the 8th and got zero outs, and that Broxton induced a perfect double-play ball that went right through Casey Blake‘s legs. Broxton’s going to get the lion’s share of the blame here, and probably rightfully so. But he’s not alone in this loss, and that’s important to remember.
But just like before, he was very good after working out the initial kinks, not allowing more than one earned run in his last 21 games of the season. So while the 5.04 ERA looks awful, it’s kind of misleading since so many of the runs he allowed came immediately after returning from his stretches away from the team.
Of course, that doesn’t excuse the fact that Belisario’s personal issues were the cause of those absences. So there’s that, and you absolutely cannot depend on him going forward. Still, he’s proven that he’s an effective reliever when he’s available, and he’s not going anywhere; he’s out of options, and his trade value is low. There’s no question you bring him back next year, but there’s also no question that you duct tape his visa applications to his face and make sure they get taken care of on time. A third season in a row with a delayed arrival would be funny if it weren’t so frustrating.
Octavio Dotel (C-)
3.38 ERA, 4.69 FIP, 10.1 K/9, 5.3 BB/9, 0.2 WAR
Must… not… kill… Dotel… for… awful… trade. I’m trying so hard not to blame Dotel for the circumstances which brought him to Los Angeles, because it’s really not Dotel’s fault. I know, I know; I can’t even say his name without thinking of how James McDonald & Andrew Lambo were wasted. But Dotel probably wasn’t sitting in Neil Huntington’s office helping the Pittsburgh GM abuse Ned Colletti, right?
For all the words spilled on Dotel, he only pitched 18.2 innings as a Dodger and didn’t even end the year on the squad. During his short time in blue, he was basically as expected. He struck out plenty of batters (10.1/9,), walked a lot (5.3/9) and was homer-prone (1.4/9), yet actually had a lower WHIP than he did in Pittsburgh. So I’m not going to kill him too much for his on-field performance.
That said, it’s not like he was really good or contributed a whole lot, either. Sure, a 3.38 ERA looks nice, but I don’t have to remind you yet again how useless ERA is for relievers, particularly in small sample sizes. And in case I do have to remind you…
Sherrill did his job in the 8th, coming into a situation with two men on and getting out of the inning. After allowing two singles and getting two outs in the 9th, Dotel allowed a walk and a double, letting both runners score. Those runs are charged towards Sherrill’s ERA, not Dotel’s.
That was from August 10 against the Phillies; less than a week later, this happened, after Hong-Chih Kuo loaded the bases:
At this point, Joe Torre can take no more, and he comes out to rescue the All-Star. Octavio Dotel offers no relief, however, by allowing all three runners to score on a walk and a walkoff single.
In neither of those two games was Dotel charged with an earned run, so let’s not put too much stock in that stat, okay? It’s why the 4.69 FIP is a far more accurate indicator. As the Dodgers fell further out of the race, Dotel was sent to Colorado on September 18 for a player to be named later. Three of the nine games he pitched for the Rockies in the last two weeks came against the Dodgers.
Last week, the player to be named was revealed as 26-year-old outfielder Anthony Jackson, who just put up a .676 OPS in his second season in AA. He’s a complete non-prospect, not even ranking in the top 30 Rockies prospects before the season per Baseball America, and many just saw that as the distasteful icing on a terrible cake, but it’s really irrelevant. Did we really think the Rockies were giving up a top prospect for two weeks of Dotel? Of course not; it was just a way for the Dodgers to save his $250k buyout for 2011, but mainly, it was a fittingly anticlimactic ending to a trade which never should have happened.
Russ Ortiz (F-)
10.29 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 7.7 K/9, 6.4 BB/9, -0.6 WAR
Much as I’d like to blame Ortiz for everything that went wrong with the Dodgers in 2010, he only pitched seven innings for the club and was cut before April ended, so it’s hard to act as though he had a huge impact on the season. While I do not want to spend even five more seconds of my life thinking about or writing about Russ Ortiz, it is pretty fun to see how little we thought of this at the time.
Finally, via Diamond Leung, Troy from West Virginia has some strong thoughts on the Russ Ortiz signing (along with a wicked beard). Hey, I can’t say I disagree with him; Ortiz is abysmal and has been completely cooked for years. Troy is probably on his way to jail, and if the things in that article are true, then his future is well deserved. Still, when a man has that much facing him and he’s still bothered by a minor-league invite to Russ Ortiz… well, it probably means you shouldn’t have signed Russ Ortiz.
Russ Ortiz. I know that he’s not allowed a walk or a run in 5 innings, and I do not care. I refuse to live in a world where Russ Ortiz – Russ Ortiz! – can win a rotation spot on a team with playoff dreams. Since his last decent season in 2004, his MLB line is 10-28 with a 6.56 ERA. He is, quite possibly, the worst pitcher in baseball, and he’s about to be 36. No amount of spring training niceties should be able to undo that. Odds: 0.0000001%
If you’re wondering why I’m giving slightly more hope to one busted R.Ortiz over another, it’s because Ramon has thrown nearly twice the innings Russ has in camp – and because I’ll be the first to admit I have an irrational hatred of Russ Ortiz. The Giants and D-Backs connections, the huge contract, the total flameout, the age – I don’t want any part of it.
April 11 (from Tony Jackson, on why Jonathan Broxton‘s usage was questionable):
In part, then, it was the ripple effect of Ortiz’s failure to carry out his assignment Friday that led to the Dodgers’ ninth-inning woes Saturday — although that could hardly be blamed for Sherrill’s personal implosion because he hadn’t pitched since Wednesday night at Pittsburgh, when he turned in a scoreless eighth inning and appeared finally to have found his long-lost mechanics.
He made it all the way to April 18 before getting DFA’d, and it was hard to hide the enthusiasm:
Hurrah! He’s gone! And thus ends the short and painful era of having the worst pitcher in baseball wearing Dodger blue. Shockingly, a mildly productive spring against inconsistent opponents didn’t mean more than six solid years of being horrible. Who’d have thunk? It’s just surprising that it took this long to happen, is all. Ortiz ends his Dodgers career with a line of 0-1, 10.29 ERA, 2.143 WHIP thanks to allowing 12.9 hits/9 and 6.4 BB/9, along with a trail of Dodger tears, and one surely hilarious entry in our season review series this fall.
Hilarious? Perhaps not. Just relieved at the proposition of never having to write about Russ Ortiz ever again.
******
Next! Ned Colletti cashes in his goodwill! Joe Torre mails in a farewell tour! It’s the last installment of the 2010 season in review, management!
The Best Start of Clayton Kershaw’s Career…
September 15, 2010 at 10:49 am | Posted in Clayton Kershaw, James McDonald, Octavio Dotel, Travis Schlichting | 17 Comments
…was also the 4th-most-valuable game any starting pitcher has had this year, based on WPA (Win Percentage Added):
| Rk | Player | Date | Opp | Rslt | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | Pit | WPA | RE24 | aLI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edwin Jackson | 2010-06-25 | TBR | W 1-0 | 9.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 149 | 0.880 | 4.934 | 1.758 |
| 2 | Roy Halladay | 2010-05-29 | FLA | W 1-0 | 9.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 115 | 0.842 | 4.570 | 1.226 |
| 3 | Mat Latos | 2010-05-13 | SFG | W 1-0 | 9.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 106 | 0.841 | 4.661 | 1.348 |
| 4 | Clayton Kershaw | 2010-09-14 | SFG | W 1-0 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 111 | 0.832 | 4.661 | 1.338 |
| 5 | Jake Peavy | 2010-06-19 | WSN | W 1-0 | 9.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 107 | 0.825 | 4.440 | 1.809 |
In case you’re wondering why Kershaw ranks above “better” games like Dallas Braden‘s perfecto, it’s because WPA takes into account the game situation, so Kershaw’s performance with a razor-thin 1-0 lead was worth more than Braden holding down a 4-0 lead.
Last night’s outing tops his previous WPA score of 0.628, which he got by tossing 8 shutout innings against the Cardinals in July of 2009. Since allowing six runs in six innings against Washington on August 6, Kershaw’s torn off seven solid games in which he’s allowed 10 ER in 48.2 IP, striking out 48 against just 15 BB. The Dodger record in those games? Just 3-4, thanks to lousy offense, though last night’s one hit was certainly the worst.
And people say the Dodgers “don’t have an ace”…
******
Just when you thought you couldn’t hate the James McDonald (and Andrew Lambo) for Octavio Dotel deal any more, McDonald tosses out yet another quality start for the Pirates, this time going eight shutout innings in New York. Needless to say, the internet is all over it…
Jon Weisman at Dodger Thoughts:
The fact remains, the Dodgers parted with their two-time minor league pitcher of the year and an effective member of their 2009 bullpen, earning a minimum salary, in order to acquire Octavio Dotel. They nurtured McDonald through eight years in the organization, and then gave up too soon.
Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:
It appears to be an outstanding trade by Neal Huntington, even at this early stage, given that it will not take any time to know what the Dodgers have in Octavio Dotel at this stage of his career. James McDonald has been very good, and Andrew Lambo has shown promise while playing around that nagging shoulder injury.
Jack Moore at Fangraphs:
McDonald’s peripheral numbers are actually quite similar to those of hard throwing left handed pitcher David Price of the Rays. Both have K/9 rates around 8.0 and walk rates around 3.5. McDonald has allowed fewer HRs this year in his small sample, but that’s unlikely to continue, as Price has a ground ball percentage in the mid-40s. McDonald’s fastball averages 92.5 MPH to Price’s 94.5, and Price’s arsenal contains a slider whereas McDonald relies on the curveball and changeup as his offspeed pitches. Both draw similar amounts of swinging strikes, with Price at 9.0% on his career and McDonald at 8.8%
Eight starts is nowhere near enough to say that McDonald can be an ace or that he’s the next David Price. Still, he’s shown tremendous potential and has a minor league track record to back it up. The Pirates haven’t seen much in the way of starting pitching talent in a long time. It’s looking like James McDonald will be the first step for the Pirates in their quest to put together a playoff-quality starting rotation.
Meanwhile, Dotel has walked 5.6/9 as a Dodger before shuffling off into free agency, and right now, the #4 and #5 starters in the 2011 Dodger rotation appear to be Charlie Haeger and Orel Hershisher. Great trade.
******
Man, I never get tired of hearing that players have hidden injuries, only to see said injury get worse. And by “never get tired”, I of course mean, “hiding an injury just never ends well”. In this case, it’s Travis Schlichting…
“I was just trying to fight through it, because my mechanics were bad at the beginning of the year, and I think that’s when it started. I was just forcing it, and it kind of never went away. It wasn’t affecting me in games, so I didn’t want to make a big deal of it.”
Conte was unsurprised to hear the pitcher had a problem that he hadn’t talked about.
“That’s sort of part of the game,” he said. “Our job, of course, is not to let it get that far, so we always appreciate it when a player tells us when he has something going on. But we understand when players don’t.”
Not a Good Night For Management
August 19, 2010 at 11:52 am | Posted in A.J. Ellis, Brad Ausmus, Joe Torre, Larry Bowa, Octavio Dotel, Ryan Theriot | 33 Comments
Geez, where to start? For all the blame we’ve heaped on guys like Matt Kemp, Russell Martin, Manny Ramirez, and Jonathan Broxton – much of it deserved, some of it less so - last night was the culimination of about twenty different poor management decisions.
Perhaps we’ll go with the obvious, and that’s that the Octavio Dotel deal looks more horrific with every terrible Dotel appearance and every quality James McDonald start for the Pirates. I hated this deal from the moment it was made, but that was because I thought the pricetag was far too high. I’ll admit that I thought that Dotel would be a decent addition to the pen, yet he’s been horrendous; last night’s meltdown was painful to watch, made bearable only by the knowledge that the playoff hunt is over and one more brutal loss doesn’t make much of a difference at this point.
FanGraphs sums up my frustrations:
Ned Coletti and Joe Torre are living in a world where James McDonald (20 K, 4 BB, 0 HR in 17.2 IP with Pittsburgh) and Andrew Lambo are an acceptable price to add a middling reliever to a team six games out of the playoffs and then turn him into the relief ace over two superior pitchers. The Dodgers are now 12 games out of the NL West lead and 8 games out of the Wild Card. I don’t know what the Dodgers’ endgame was with Octavio Dotel, but there’s no doubt that Coletti and the Los Angeles front office missed big on this one.
Basically, yes. I still can’t believe there were people who liked that deal at the time. In fact, let’s take a quick comparison at the performance of the veterans the Dodgers acquired at the deadline as compared to those who were shipped out. Yes, I know that three weeks is hardly a fair sample size, but this will be a useful comparison tool when I repeat this exercise in the months and years to come.
Coming to LA:
Scott Podsednik – .724 OPS, and surprisingly lousy defense.
Ryan Theriot – .663 OPS, which doesn’t make up for surprisingly good D.
Octavio Dotel – 1.765 WHIP, 7 BB in 5 IP, 2 blown games.
Ted Lilly – 4 ER in 19 IP. No argument that he’s been excellent, but it hasn’t mattered.
Leaving LA:
Blake DeWitt – .783 OPS, 120 points higher than Theriot, and who could have predicted that?
James McDonald – 20/4 K/BB in three Pirate starts.
Andrew Lambo – .904 OPS in 61 PA for AA Altoona.
Brett Wallach – 13/9 K/BB in 3 games for A Peoria.
Kyle Smit – 9/3 K/BB in 8.1 IP for AA Tennessee.
Lucas May – .848 OPS and 4 HR in 62 PA for AAA Omaha.
Elisaul Pimentel – 2.053 WHIP in 4 games for A Burlington.
So the only Dodger who’s really done well is Lilly, but he was added to the part of the team that needed a boost less than anywhere else, and the only prospects who haven’t gotten off to a good start are the two still in Low-A ball. That’s without even considering the implications in salary (Theriot, for example, costs far more than DeWitt) or team control (about 40 years out the window).
This team would have been so much better off making zero of those three trades that it’s scary.
******
Front office issue #2: not having a backup catcher should Martin get hurt, which he did. A.J. Ellis had another oh-fer last night (including looking horrible on a suicide squeeze, and more on that in a second). Ellis is down to a .440 OPS on the season, which is laughable only in that it’s somehow better than Ausmus’ .433. To put that in perspective, Garret Anderson was at least at .475. Chad at MOKM did a good job recently of pointing out just how good these two are making Martin look, but I don’t consider this a new issue.
Really, how was going into the season with a guy we all knew couldn’t hit (Ellis) and a guy we knew couldn’t hit and was over 40 (Ausmus) a smart idea? Back on March 7, when Martin was injured in camp and Ellis looked like he’d be the Opening Day catcher, I looked at Ellis and said that his total lack of offense meant I had no hopes for him as a major leaguer. In December, I said the idea of getting into a bidding war over Ausmus was ludicrous.
In fact, this goes all the way back to last October, and my 2010 plan, where I was resigned to the fact that you had to stick with Martin (look for a repeat of that in the 2011 plan), but that you had to sign a better backup. I suggested Ramon Hernandez. All he ended up doing this year is hit .303/.367/.437/.804 for the Reds.
This shouldn’t have come as a surprise to anyone, and now the team is paying for it.
******
Speaking of the Ellis bunt, I never thought he’d figure out a way to look worse at the plate than he usually does, but he sure did it. I actually didn’t hate the idea of bunting in that situation, because Ellis isn’t any better of a hitter than your average pitcher; but why did Torre need to wait until there were two strikes to make the call?
******
I’ve said this before, and I’ll keep saying it: there is no rational reason that Ryan Theriot should be hitting higher in the lineup than Jamey Carroll. Carroll gets on base more often, and even hits for a bit more power. I said it before last night’s game, and look what happened: Carroll got on twice, Theriot just once. There’s no question that this offense needs a shake-up; isn’t this an easy and obvious way to do it?
******
Finally, we have the game-ending play where Reed Johnson tried to score from first on a bloop single. Yes, read that again, because it actually happened. What in the world Larry Bowa was thinking was beyond me, but for someone who’s not shy about talking about Kemp in the paper, we need to realize that he played a pretty large role in this loss as well. I can’t even accurately express to you in words how much Johnson was out by, so I’ll let Chad from MOKM‘s animated .gif do it for me:
I mean, that’s not even close to being close. I realize with a punchless offense you try to take chances where you can, but good lord, give the runner a chance there, Larry.
The worst part? Torre was completely on board:
Torre, on Bowa sending Reed Johnson: “That’s certainly what I would have done”
Of course it is. I have a lot of respect for the years Torre, Bowa, & Bob Schaefer have spent in the game, but I hardly think I’m alone when I say I can’t wait for a new regime. And I’m not…
ESPN’s Rob Neyer:
Maybe the solution here is to keep Kemp and find a new coaching staff. Because the old staff doesn’t seem to have accomplished much this summer.
LA Times’ Bill Shaikin:
But, by keeping Kemp out of the lineup until he begged forgiveness, the old-school manager and his old-school coaching staff played by old-school rules that no longer fly. If Kemp had sinned for the Angels, Mike Scioscia would have summoned him to the office, immediately after the game or before the next one, read him the riot act and moved on.
Scioscia also checks in with his players during batting practice. On the day Kemp snapped, Torre never set foot on the field during batting practice. He held court with the media, then visited with some Hollywood friends.
Torre says he won’t make his decision on 2011 until the team is eliminated from playoff contention. That ought to be any day now; I know which choice I’m hoping for.
Changes in the Bullpen
August 13, 2010 at 5:58 pm | Posted in Hong-Chih Kuo, Jonathan Broxton, Octavio Dotel | 14 CommentsI’m still working on my mega-Broxton post (believe me, it’ll be interesting), but in the meantime we have changes at the back end of the bullpen. Dylan Hernandez, take it away:
Kuo is the #Dodgers‘ closer — for now. Dotel will be closing tonight if the #Dodgers are ahead.
This is going to be seen, I’m sure, as a massive demotion for Broxton. I don’t think it should be seen as such, but it’s the right move. As both Eric Stephen and Steve Dilbeck called for, Broxton needs to not be the closer right now. You can chalk up his struggles to whatever you want – overuse, injury, mechanics, etc. – but he’s not getting the job done. He needs some time to recharge, time the Dodgers probably don’t have right now (this if you’re still under the impression they’re in contention, which I am not), so it’s the right move for him and for the team. I think that once he gets himself together, he deserves to get his job back – and he will.
Hernandez explains further:
Torre said he will still use Broxton in close games; just wants to take him out of closing role until he gets his feet under him.
Exactly. I’m fully behind this move, for now. So they turn to Hong-Chih Kuo, one hell of an option, because he’s been all but untouchable. Of course, he’s pitched two nights in a row and is almost certainly unavailable tonight, so they’ll go with Octavio Dotel, as Hernandez said.
Here’s the problem with Dotel, though: he’s basically the opposite of George Sherrill. Dotel crushes righties, allowing them only a .176/.238/.330 line so far this year. But lefties kill him, to the tune of .304/.424/.594. Unfortunately for Torre, he may not have any great options tonight should the Dodgers have a lead in a close game.
*****
If there’s one concern I have, it’s this: despite the panicked effort by the club to act as though they’re in the race, they’re not. It’s just not their year. What really worries me is the idea that in the effort to pretend they’re contending, fragile arms like Kuo (now allowed to pitch on back-to-back nights) and young rookie Kenley Jansen will be overworked in the name of finishing 6 games out of the playoffs. That’s not even close to worth it, and that’s something I’ll be watching closely.
******
Oh, I almost forgot. This blog is bashing me. Or not. I can’t even really tell, but I like it anyway.
Three Trades: The Other Side
August 1, 2010 at 2:07 pm | Posted in Blake DeWitt, Octavio Dotel, Ryan Theriot, Ted Lilly | 16 CommentsNow that everyone’s had a night to sleep on it… well, yesterday was still pretty bad, and I’m not even just talking about the painful loss to the Giants (yes, I’m getting a bit worried about Jonathan Broxton, though it’d be nice if the offense would score more than one run every once in a while too.) Really, my main problem with the deals yesterday was not just that I think the price was too high for improvements which are minimal at best, but that it’s just too late to bother. This isn’t a team that only needed a few rough edges smoothed out, so trading prospects for veterans who aren’t likely to make a difference seems like a mistake, especially when the biggest problem (the offense) was not only not upgraded, but arguably made worse. On top of that, for the number and quality of players who were traded, it would have been far better to get one impact player rather than four decent-ish guys.
Still, thousands of words were written about that yesterday, and SOSG did a great job of showing how the “mainstream” writers all liked the Dodger moves while Dodger bloggers almost uniformly hated them. What I’m interested in right now is how the other side felt. If we all hated the deals, how did fans of the Royals, Pirates, & Cubs see them?
This, ah, is probably not going to make you feel any better.
On the Octavio Dotel deal….
Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke?:
McDonald is the great get here; he’s 25 and though he’s had trouble cracking the Dodgers rotation the last two years, he’s got great minor league numbers. Before the Dodgers used him in the bullpen through most of 2009, he was Baseball America’s 56th best prospect. He’s in Triple-A right now, but presumably could be called up and put in the Pirates’ rotation right away.
Lambo’s a decent prospect with a PED suspension drug of abuse suspension in the past, but he’s 21 and putting up decent numbers in Double-A, which is encouraging. The numbers aren’t great for a four-corners type player (which is what Lambo is), but to get him and McDonald in return for a 36-year old closer who could have been a free agent next year, well, it’s really hard not to be pleased with this trade.
Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke?, part 2:
James McDonald is a solid upper-middle rotation prospect who at the very least should be a very useful bullpen player. Andrew Lambo is a very young, raw player who’s had some struggles but who is still a good prospect. To pull those two in for a 36-year old reliever is a pretty impressive haul and it’s the sort of trade I’m still smarting from being on the other end of so many times in the past.
The players the Pirates got are mostly help-now types, but McDonald, in particular, used to be a very well-regarded prospect, and his performance actually hasn’t faded all that much since that was the case. His upside is probably something like a #3 starter, which isn’t usually the sort of thing you can say about a 25-year-old Class AAA pitcher.
Lambo is the wild card here. Like McDonald, he was once among the Dodgers‘ top prospects, but unlike McDonald, he probably won’t be with the Pirates anytime soon. He’ll probably be at Class AA, where he’s been for the past two seasons. He’s struggled to master the level, but then he hasn’t been overwhelmed either, despite skipping Class A+ and being somewhat young for the league. It would be hard for me to argue that a couple of random Class A arms, which is about the return I would have expected for Dotel, have more upside than Lambo does. He isn’t a surefire prospect by any stretch, but he’s a nice addition.
I thought McDonald was plenty to get in return for Dotel, someone that wasn’t going to be of much use for the Bucs going forward. Who know’s what’ll happen with Lambo, but we’ll gladly take him in and give him a shot. He only makes the deal better, with the potential to make it a lot better.
RTJR also posted what I believe was Dotel’s entrance video and… well, I can’t not post this here.
On the Ted Lilly/Ryan Theriot deal…
About Blake DeWitt, people who call him “a Theriot clone” or “another Fontenot” miss the point. DeWitt is only 24 years old. His OPS this year is almost 100 points higher than Theriot’s, and two years ago at age 22, he hit nine home runs. I am not expecting him to be a power hitter; just hit for a decent average, play good defense and don’t make dumb baserunning plays! He did hit for some power in the minor leagues; it’s possible that might develop more as he gets older. Remember, he is two years younger than Theriot was when Theriot got a fulltime starting job in the major leagues.
Another Cubs Blog comments on the deal, then shows us exactly what a TOOTBLAN is:
I like Wallach, FWIW. Here are his numbers at Great Lakes (MWL):
17 GS, 84.2 IP, 73 H, 39 R, 7 HR, 43 BB, 92 K
And Smit’s numbers between Inland Empire (A+) and Chattanooga (AA):
37 G (1GS), 53.2 IP, 52 H, 17 R, 10 BB, 47 K
Not too shabby of a return for an expiring deal and a nontender candidate.
On the Scott Podsednik deal…
Royals Review:
Pimentel is a 21 year old pitcher who has been in A-ball. (B-R page) Pimentel has a 3.49 ERA this year, with good strikeout numbers. A definite interesting live arm. He is the second Pimentel from the Dodger organization to be acquired by Dayton Moore. He has a 3.68 career minor league ERA. (I had earlier written the Dodgers had been using him as a reliever, I must have went cross-eyed when I looked at his stats. He hasn’t been. He’s been a starter.)
Lucas May / Luke May is a 25 year old catcher with an .848 this season in AAA. (B-R page) May also hit decently last season in AA. I’m sure Albuquerque is a good hitters park, but for a catcher in his first AAA season, those are interesting numbers. I would have taken one of these guys for Pods.
Well done to the GM on this one.
Moriyama and other Dodgers bloggers had Pimentel jumping into their in-seasno top 30 prospects lists, so to get both minor leaguers is a steal for Dayton Moore. I believe I saw that the Dodgers are also picking up the remainder of Podsednik’s 2010 salary, which is another win. So basically, I’m ecstatic.
The Royals made a very good trade today in acquiring 25 year old catcher Lucas May and 22 year old P Elisaul Pimentel
The Royals currently employ an aging catcher and a backup catcher that does not have much of a future at that position.
Dotel For McDonald & Lambo: The Dodgers Just Got a Lot Older
July 31, 2010 at 5:18 pm | Posted in Andrew Lambo, James McDonald, Octavio Dotel, Ryan Theriot, Ted Lilly | 31 Comments
As you’ve no doubt heard (and mourned about) by now, the Dodgers traded James McDonald and Andrew Lambo to the Pirates for reliever Octavio Dotel. This one really came out of nowhere, and I’ve having a hell of a hard time processing it.
Let’s start with the slight positive outlook here: Dotel could help the bullpen. I looked at him when scouting the reliever market a few weeks ago, and I didn’t hate the idea at the time:
Dotel has a little over $1m coming to him for the rest of the season and a $4.5m mutual option for 2011, but he’s been surprisingly effective for someone who’s been kicking around for so long. I know, the 4.89 ERA doesn’t seem like much, but that’s in large part due to a horrendous April (ER allowed in six games in a row). Since May 1, he’s saved 16 of 19 with a 2.81 ERA and a .184 batting average against, while striking out more than 10 per 9.
The perpetually rebuilding Pirates have All-Star Evan Meek and former Dodger Joel Hanrahan ready to take over in their bullpen, so you wouldn’t think they’d be dying to hold on to the 36-year-old Dotel all that badly.
I have to be honest, I don’t really hate the idea of tossing Dotel in for the late innings, assuming the price was reasonable.
You’ll note that last part – “assuming the price was reasonable” – but more on that in a second. Dotel was useful as a Pirate, and he’s got five straight scoreless outings in which he’s struck out six without a walk. He’s still striking out more than 10 per 9, and he won’t be asked to be the closer in Los Angeles, so if you’re asking me if the bullpen is better now than it was yesterday – yes, I think it is. Dotel along with Jonathan Broxton, Hong-Chih Kuo, & Kenley Jansen (along with maybe Ronald Belisario) could be a pretty decent bullpen.
But the price seems out of whack. Dotel’s okay, but he’s not that good. McDonald was the two-time Dodger minor league pitcher of the year, and he doesn’t turn 26 until after the season. While his attempts at starting in the bigs haven’t been all that successful, he’s proven himself to be a viable arm out of the bullpen. In 48 career games out of the pen, he’s held opponents to a 2.71 ERA while striking out more than twice as many as he walked. Almost as importantly, he’s under team control until after 2015.
And then there’s Andrew Lambo, and let’s get the obvious out of the way first. Yes, he was suspended for 50 games in the minors this year, but no, it wasn’t for steroids or PEDs. It was for marijuana, and while I’m certainly not standing behind his intelligence, let’s not pretend he was cheating or shooting up heroin, either.
There’s a lot to like about Lambo, and a lot to dislike as well. Baseball Prospectus said this about him in their 2010 annual:
This 2007 fourth-rounder came into the year considered to be the best pure hitter in the system thanks to a combination of bat speed and raw strength. He was also the system’s most advanced prospect for his age, reaching Double-A as a 20-year-old, and spending 2009 as the league’s fourth-youngest hitting prospect. Despite a hot start at Chattanooga (.321/.383/.548 in April), Lambo soon went Arctic, batting just .243/.295/.377 the rest of the way as his plate discipline suffered and his power failed to develop. His odd reverse platoon split persisted, as he batted just .241/.299/.388 against righties. Lacking in speed, athleticism, and defensive ability, Lambo will only go so far as his bat takes him, and right now, that appears to be back to Chattanooga.
It’s important to note that he doesn’t even turn 22 until a few weeks from now, and lines like “best pure hitter in the system thanks to a combination of bat speed and raw strength” are quite tasty. Before his suspension this year, he was off to a great start, hitting .342/.390/.566 at AA. He’s now down to .271/.325.420, but it requires a but more digging than that. He obviously started slowly in his return from that layoff, but he’s warming up, with hits in 9 of his last 10 games.
Maybe, as some have noted, the defense isn’t there, and if he’s forced to move to 1B that would obviously hurt his chances, and it’s hard to ignore his trouble staying away from the weed. Still, he’s a 21-year-old who’s shown success at AA, and when you pair him with a 25-year-old who’s shown success at the MLB level, and you trade them for a decent-but-not-great 36-year-old reliever, it’s not hard to see why the future for this team looks bleaker by the day.
ESPN’s Keith Law, by the way, agrees:
The Pirates get an absolute steal of a return on Octavio Dotel by getting two out-of-favor prospects from the Dodgers, a situation where if only one pans out they still see a significant gain.
James MacDonald has a very strong minor league track record despite a fringe-average fastball when he works as a starter, but has a plus changeup and an above-average slow curve that both can miss bats and allow him to work backwards. The Dodgers threw him right into the fire in 2009, he struggled (unsurprisingly), and they gave up on him, which is the Pirates’ good fortune.
Outfielder Andrew Lambo just came off a 50-game suspension for drug use — hey, it doesn’t make him a bad guy — and he’s an indifferent outfielder, but he’s got the potential for an above-average offensive profile. He is strong, with good feel for the bat but the plate discipline of a guy who hasn’t played much and was handled strangely before the suspension. There’s enough potential there given his age (21) and inexperience that the Pirates are right to want to gamble on him.
As for Dotel, he throws mostly fastballs and doesn’t have the plus command you want to see in a guy who’s coming with the same thing four pitches out of five. He’s a fine guy to have in your middle relief corps but no one for whom you want to give up two young players, even if you’ve already given up on them yourself.
Can’t argue with any of that.
******
Here’s what really bothers me, though. In the last few days, the Dodgers have traded James McDonald, Blake DeWitt, Andrew Lambo, Lucas May, Kyle Smit, Elisaul Pimentel, and Brett Wallach.
They’ve acquired Ted Lilly, Ryan Theriot, Scott Podsednik, and Octavio Dotel – basically, a decent but not vital starter, a lousy middle infielder, a mediocre outfielder, and a decent veteran reliever, and all over 30.
Now, most of the baseball community has spent an enormous amount of time lately laughing at the Diamondbacks and Astros for the seemingly meager hauls they pulled in for Dan Haren and Roy Oswalt. You’re telling me that some combination of the players the Dodgers just traded couldn’t have pulled in one of those guys? Alternatively, is there really anyone who wouldn’t have preferred Haren or Oswalt rather than the collection of mediocre, over-30 veterans they just pulled in?
Yet despite all the moves, the offense – the biggest problem – didn’t get improved, and arguably was made worse. That’s supposed to help propel the team to October how, exactly? Really, what a terrible day all around.
******
Back to the Lilly deal for a second, this tweet from the Chicago Sun-Times isn’t going to make you feel better:
Lilly says not ”overly excited about it,” despite looking forward to battling for a playoff spot.
Nor will the fact that urbandictionary.com actually has a name for Theriot’s base-running exploits:
TOOTBLAN. Acronym for Thrown Out On The Basepaths Like A Nincompoop. Baseball statistic invented for Ryan Theriot of the Chicago Cubs, for his penchant for ill-advised steal attempts and general lack of skill running bases.
Theriot’s current TOOTBLAN number is 19.
That was popularized by Cubs blog Wrigleyville23, who really ought to know about such things.
James McDonald & Andrew Lambo Traded For Octavio Dotel
July 31, 2010 at 4:11 pm | Posted in Andrew Lambo, James McDonald, Octavio Dotel | 20 CommentsI’m not even sure what to say about this one. I want to give it a real write-up, but…
Good lord. You’re going to have to give me a moment.
Scouting the Market: Relief Pitching
July 13, 2010 at 12:19 pm | Posted in Brandon League, David Aardsma, Jason Frasor, Kerry Wood, Kevin Gregg, Kyle Farnsworth, Octavio Dotel, Scott Downs | 11 CommentsWe’ve looked at the underwhelming crop of starting pitching available for the stretch drive; now it’s time to turn to what may be an even bigger need, the bullpen. Ronald Belisario‘s return is still unknown, and Joe Torre clearly trusts only Jonathan Broxton and Hong-Chih Kuo (and I suppose Jeff Weaver, but not in the same way.)
There’s actually some decent arms here, but the challenges in finding a reliever are many. Jon Weisman has already explained that trading for relievers isn’t always worth the trouble, and we’ve all seen how that worked out with George Sherrill this year. Besides, only teams who are woefully out of the race will be willing to move bullpen arms, but lack of said arms is in large part how they got to be so far out in the first place. Take a look at Baltimore’s bullpen, for example. Is there really anyone there who interests you? There’s quite the argument to be made that simply adding a James McDonald or Kenley Jansen to the bullpen (assuming that McDonald isn’t the 5th starter first) is the best course of action; there’s a quite larger argument to be made that there’s no way in hell the Dodgers will actually do that.
Either way, the Dodgers aren’t looking for a closer, the way some teams are. So if they are going to get someone, it’ll either need to be a pitcher who isn’t already a closer, or one who would accept the fact that he’s not coming to LA to usurp Broxton.
Scott Downs
Kevin Gregg
Jason Frasor
(all free agents after 2010, though Gregg has team options)
All three have been placed on the trading block by the Jays. I’ll take a break and let MLBTR cover these guys for me:
Gregg’s one-year, $2.75MM deal with the Blue Jays seemed curious in February, but he was installed as the team’s closer in April when Jason Frasor struggled. Gregg has a 3.67 ERA, 9.7 K/9, and 4.7 BB/9 with three home runs allowed in 34.3 innings this year. He’s saved 20 of 23 and bumped his groundball rate from last year.
After the season Gregg’s team can choose to retain him for zero, one, or two years. His club option is for $4.5MM in 2011 or $8.75MM for 2011-12. He currently profiles as a Type B free agent, and an arbitration offer seems possible. Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos figures to aim for more than the value of one supplemental draft pick if he trades Gregg now. Gregg has $913K remaining on his contract, plus a potential $750K buyout on the option.
Frasor’s control has slipped this year, especially against lefties. He’s getting more groundballs than last year, though more hits have dropped in too. Frasor has been better lately and remains a useful arm. He has $1.21MM remaining on his contract. At the moment, he profiles as a Type B free agent after the season. Downs, meanwhile, has trimmed walks and hits compared to ’09. The lefty is owed $1.83MM.
All three can be free agents after the year (Gregg, as noted, has unlikely team options), but if I had to choose, I’m definitely going with Scott Downs. Not only is he the most effective, he’s also a lefty, which is crucial with Kuo’s workload limited and Sherrill’s utility destroyed. He’s also the most expensive, though I’d hate to think that even under current circumstances, $1.8m for the rest of the year is a deal-breaker.
Of course, the Dodgers are hardly the only team in on relief help, since River Ave. Blues has the same idea for the Yankees:
I’m a big Scott Downs fan, so I’d prefer him over either Gregg or Frasor, but I’m not sure if Joe Girardi would be open to using him as a normal reliever instead of just having him face lefties. Gregg is the better of the two righthanders, given his long track record of missing bats. I’m always skeptical of trading for relievers given their penchant for sucking at the drop of a hat and for no apparent reason, but if the Yanks are going to make a move for bullpen help, these three probably represent the best available options.
(picture of Downs from the excellent Drunk Jays Fans.)
David Aardsma
Brandon League
(Each are under team control for ’11 and ’12.)
With the Mariners in full-fledged sell mode, the vultures are already circling around Aardsma and League. Now, since each are under control for two more seasons, the Mariners don’t necessarily have to trade either, which may increase the cost. The well-traveled Aardsma was seen as All-World in 2009 (2.52 ERA) and a massive disappointment in 2010 (5.40 ERA), but his FIP shows that he was neither as good as he was last year nor as bad as he is this year. I wouldn’t want him as my closer, but as the third or fourth arm in the pen you could do worse than his experience, 9.1 K/9 career rate, and 94.3 average fastball heat.
As for League, I mostly just added him here because I’ve been making the “Dee Gordon for Brandon League” joke for a few weeks now. I don’t actually like him all that much; his K rate has tumbled since last year (9.16 to 6.70) while his BB rate has risen (2.53 to 3.25). No thanks.
Added packaging bonus: Russell Branyan‘s a masher who hit 31 homers last year and has had only one season (2007) in the last decade with an OPS below .800, yet he’s also a lefty bat who can (sort of) play first, third, and the outfield corners. He’s got less than $1m coming to him for the rest of the year, and a $5m mutual option for 2011. He’s already been traded once this season and is supposedly back on the market; tell me how replacing Garret Anderson with Branyan wouldn’t be an enormous improvement both in power off the bench and roster flexibility?
Kerry Wood
(2011 team option for $11m)
I look at Wood in much the same way that I do Aardsma, in that I wouldn’t want him anywhere near the 9th inning, but between his heat and his experience he could be a decent arm to add to the mix. He does have about $5m coming to him for the rest of the season, so the Indians would have to kick in some help.
His horrendous 2010 ERA (6.30) is in large part due to one brutal May outing (5 ER in 0.1 inning). Since then, he’s done much better (a .691 OPS allowed in 18 games) and the Indians seem motivated to get what they can for him and install Chris Perez as the closer. He’s nowhere near the pitcher he once was, but he’s still pumping out 95 MPH heat and I’d rather see him come in in the 7th inning than Justin Miller.
Dotel has a little over $1m coming to him for the rest of the season and a $4.5m mutual option for 2011, but he’s been surprisingly effective for someone who’s been kicking around for so long. I know, the 4.89 ERA doesn’t seem like much, but that’s in large part due to a horrendous April (ER allowed in six games in a row). Since May 1, he’s saved 16 of 19 with a 2.81 ERA and a .184 batting average against, while striking out more than 10 per 9.
The perpetually rebuilding Pirates have All-Star Evan Meek and former Dodger Joel Hanrahan ready to take over in their bullpen, so you wouldn’t think they’d be dying to hold on to the 36-year-old Dotel all that badly.
I have to be honest, I don’t really hate the idea of tossing Dotel in for the late innings, assuming the price was reasonable.
The mere thought terrifies me, but there are rumors that he’s available. I can’t think of a concievable scenario in which seeing pr0FF3ss0r_F4rnsw0rth in Dodger blue is okay. In fact, in lieu of actually analyzing him, I’m just going to present the Wikipedia description of his character from the online series “The Dugout”:
Known for his role in several bench-clearing brawls, Farnsworth’s Dugout character is ignorant, egotistical and vulgar, to the point that other characters have pointed out those traits, including his habit of calling players racial slurs for the wrong race. He types in all lowercase, with frequent misspellings and use of chat speak. Farnsworth has been the subject of a number of side stories, including a journey to fight the character King Triton from Disney’s The Little Mermaid when the Dugout “upgraded” to AIM Triton, and an Animal House-style attempt to watch the United States women’s national softball team sleepover with then-fellow New York Yankees reliever Scott Proctor” href=”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Proctor”>Scott Proctor (DoctorProctor), which got them both hurt, but enabled Farnsworth to start an oft-troubled “relationship” with pitcher Cat Osterman (Gato). Farnsworth is considered to be the most popular Dugout character.
Aaaaaand the “Incidents” section from his own Wikipedia page…
Farnsworth was involved in a brawl that occurred in the 2003 season when his former team, the Chicago Cubs, were playing the Cincinnati Reds. Reds pitcher Paul Wilson stepped out of the batter’s box after an inside pitch, and started to yell at Farnsworth. Farnsworth then met Wilson a short distance from home plate and speared him to the ground. He was suspended three games for his actions, but MLB reduced the suspension to two games.[4]
In the 2004 season, Farnsworth angrily kicked an electric fan in the Cubs’ dugout after an outing in which he gave up six runs in one inning to the Houston Astros. Farnsworth ended up severely bruising and spraining his knee in the process, and was placed on the disabled list as a result.[5]
Farnsworth was involved in a bench-clearing fight in the 2005 season while playing for the Detroit Tigers, against the Kansas City Royals at Comerica Park. After order appeared to have been restored, Farnsworth charged Royals pitcher Jeremy Affeldt and tackled him to the ground in a similar fashion as he did with Paul Wilson. He was ejected from the game.[6]
On April 17, 2008, Farnsworth threw behind Boston Red Sox left fielder Manny Ramirez. While Farnsworth claimed that the ball slipped out of his hand as a result of trying to throw the ball as hard as possible, Ramirez was skeptical and surmised that the pitch was retaliation for Alex Rodriguez being plunked the prior night after hitting a home run in the game. Following Farnsworth’s pitch, the umpire issued warnings to both dugouts that any ill-intentions from that point forward would result in ejections.[7]
On June 17, 2009, Farnsworth’s left, non pitching hand was bitten while breaking up a fight between two of his American bulldogs — Strike and Rambo. The cuts to his hand from the bites were deep enough to reach, but not cut, a tendon. Farnsworth later taped his finger, tucked it into his glove, and went to practice telling manager Trey Hillman that he could pitch. When asked which of his dogs bit him, Farnsworth replied: “I don’t know,” Farnsworth said. “I reached in there and started grabbing dogs and throwing dogs. And one of them got me. One of those things that happens. It’s never pretty. I’ve had to do it a few times and it’s ugly.”
If you simply must know about his on-field performance this season, Baseball Prospectus notes that “He is having his best season in five years with a 1.98 ERA and 0.714 WXRL in 30 games for the Royals, though his SIERA is 3.77.” So there’s that. But still. No.
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