Talking Softball…
February 10, 2012 at 4:20 pm | Posted in Russ Mitchell | 15 Comments…from Maine to San Diego…
Well, West Covina, anyway. Tomorrow morning is the Dodger Blogger softball tournament we’ve been talking about for a while, sponsored by the Left Field Pavilion. Team MSTI plays against Vin Scully is My Homeboy at 8am at “Fenway Park”, Dodger Bobble at 10am in “Dodger Stadium”, and Sons of Steve Garvey at 1pm in “Tiger Stadium”, plus the inevitable playoff games that follow our victorious trifecta sweep, led by manager Dave P. Kudos to Mike from the LFP for putting this together, and if you’re attending, don’t forget to bring an item of canned food to benefit the Los Angeles Regional Food bank.
Frankly, it sounds like fantastic fun – look at all the rad replica fields – and I’m sorry I won’t be there in person. If there’s a sequel in 2013, mark my words: I’ll be there. Not that it’ll necessarily help Team MSTI, that is. But I’ll be there.
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Oh, and Russ Mitchell made it through waivers after being DFA’d the other day and was outrighted right back to Albuquerque. No surprise there at all.
Jared Kushner Emerges In Dodger Bidding, But That’s Not a Good Thing
February 7, 2012 at 7:16 am | Posted in Blake DeWitt, Jared Kushner, Josh Macciello, Logan White, Russ Mitchell | 38 CommentsIt’s somewhat amazing to me that in an ownership battle as high-profile as this one has been, we’re still finding out about bidders who have somehow managed to keep their interest in the dark. Bill Shaikin breaks another name this morning, but, well, don’t get too excited:
Jared Kushner, born into a prominent New York real estate family and son-in-law of Donald Trump, has emerged as a candidate in the bidding for the Dodgers.
Kushner, who became owner and publisher of the New York Observer in 2006, has played a key role in expanding the family business beyond real estate. At 31, he would be the youngest owner in Major League Baseball.
I’ll admit that the idea of a youthful owner is attractive. It’s part of the reason why the potential of groups led by Joe Torre or Peter O’Malley don’t really interest me. I’d much prefer someone energetic and with new ideas, rather than relying on dinosaurs with the same tired direction. On the other hand, well, I’m not all that far away from being 31, and if someone who is just a few months older than me were to own the team while I am decidedly not anywhere near the stratosphere of owning a baseball club, I’d probably find that a bit depressing. (Thanks, mom and dad, for not being media moguls.)
Age aside, of course, there’s some giant red flags here. Regardless of your political viewpoint, I have a hard time seeing Donald Trump as anything but an enormous scumbag who ought to be avoided at all costs. Kushner’s father, Charles, was sentenced to two years in prison back in 2005 for tax evasion and illegal campaign contributions; the elder Kushner’s brother-in-law Robert was convicted on similar charges in 2009. (Okay, I’ll get political for just one second: Charles Kushner is a major donor to Democrats. The Donald, obviously, is a far right-wing Republican. That must make for some hilarious family meals for poor Jared.)
Now, Shaikin notes that the bid does not include Charles, but would be funded primarily by the Kushner family and… you know what, let’s just stop right here. Two nightmare fathers with criminal pasts, a guy who married into Trump money, seems to have little professional experience other than playing with his family’s money, has no sports experience… just no. If you remember all the reasons why I disliked Steven Cohen, this falls into the same category. I don’t want any part of this, no matter what kind of money they have.
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In a related topic, no one – Shaikin included, and he’s unquestionably the media leader as far as this story goes – seems to want to acknowledge the existence of upstart Josh Macciello. We still haven’t seen any official word that he’s made it to the second round of bidding, other than suggestions from his own Twitter feed, but it’s beginning to sound like he’s prepared to drop a ludicrous amount of money to get in the game. How much? He tweeted last night that his bid was “almost double” that of others, and then this morning Mike Szymanski in something called the Studio City Patch (where the picture at right is from) puts a number to that bid:
Sources close to the deal confirm that the bid he laid out recently is about $2.2 billion for the Dodgers and the stadium. Macciello would only confirm that, “with the money I’m bidding, I could buy three sport teams.”
Is that for real? I have absolutely no idea. But I do know that if someone like him is going to have a prayer of a chance in this, he’s going to have to completely blow all of the other bids out of the water, and I can’t imagine anyone’s topping $2.2b right now.
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In happier news, David Laurila at Fangraphs has a pretty nice interview with Logan White today, touching on the process in drafting high school pitchers and specifically speaking about Zach Lee, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Reed, Allen Webster, and Ethan Martin. Some highlights…
On Lee:
The Biomechanical assessment was very important to our decision to draft Zach. We rank guys on athleticism, and he’s in the upper percentage in terms of that. Mechanically — how his delivery works — he was in the upper echelon. The only negative he had in his delivery was that he threw across his body a little bit, but we feel that is correctable. A lot of significant pitchers have thrown across their body, so you just have to fix their line a little bit. But in terms of arm action, Zach’s front side, his lead arm, how his legs work, his lower half and stride to the plate — all of that — was in the top percentages. I’d say he was in the upper 10 percent of the draft.
On drafting Clayton Kershaw over Tim Lincecum:
Getting back to the original question, we didn’t have any of those guys ahead of Kershaw on our list. We took him based on the fact that he was the best player. From there, everything came together.
On Reed:
He’s 6-foot-4 and athletic as can be. He’s in great physical shape. He throws 95 from the left side, with a hard slider and a good changeup. We’re also talking about a guy with good makeup who is bright. To me, if he would have gotten seen more, I don’t think there’s a chance he gets to the 16th pick. I think we got lucky. Time will bear that out. We might be wrong.
The entire piece is a fascinating look at the draft process, and it’s well worth your click.
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In addition to Russ Mitchell getting DFA’d by the Dodgers yesterday, former Dodger Blake DeWitt was cut loose by the Cubs. I have to say, I’m somewhat surprised by how many fans I’ve heard from suggesting that the Dodgers go and pick him up. I suppose I understand the thought, because Adam Kennedy is both ten years older & useless, and DeWitt was a popular player here, but what people need to keep in mind is that DeWitt really hasn’t done much to prove himself in Chicago. A .265/.305/.413 line in 2011 isn’t a whole lot to lust after, and it says a lot that he was cut in favor of Adrian Cardenas, who has no position and not enough of a bat to make it anywhere but the middle infield.
All that being said, DeWitt is still young and was a plus defender at third base, where the Dodgers have absolutely zero organizational depth, so if he’s willing to take a minor-league deal and start in Albuquerque, then sure, why not. Otherwise, let’s not lose any sleep over it.
We’re Running Short on Optimism For Your 2012 Dodgers (Updated)
February 6, 2012 at 2:03 pm | Posted in Russ Mitchell | 35 Comments
When it comes to the Dodgers, we’re all biased in one way or another. We’re in too deep. We worry if Adam Kennedy was really better for the last spot off the bench than any minimum salary has-been who might as well have been Adam Kennedy. We worry if signing a sorta-decent veteran reliever like Todd Coffey is going to push a sorta-decent prospect like Josh Lindblom to the minors for a few weeks until someone gets hurt, perhaps even Todd Coffey. (Perhaps that should go further, something like, “we are aware of the existences of both Todd Coffey and Josh Lindblom.”) We discuss guys who are inevitably going to come in something like ninth place in the ownership bidding as though they’ll matter. We complain about the color guy broadcaster who only works road games, but not even all road games, just out-of-division road games, at least those which haven’t been picked up by ESPN or FOX or TBS or MLB Network. (On the other hand, Steve Lyons is pretty awful.)
The point is, as much as we think we know, as much as we think we’ve got this team pegged, we look at them with far from a fresh perspective. How can we? We’ve been watching the same ownership/GM team for over six years now. Been there, done that, hated this, despised that. So at times it’s helpful to take a step back, get some air, and see what outsiders are saying about our favorite baseball squadron. At least, in theory…
Grant Brisbee, McCovey Chronicles:
Look, I’m a Giants fan. This blog started right as the Giants became the worst-hitting team in the National League and stayed there for what’s going on seven seasons. I have no right to make fun of another team because of how they hit, or how I think they’ll hit. No right. But I still look at that Dodgers lineup and think, “Holy crap.” I mean, holy crap. Pick the third-best hitter in that lineup after you account for position. Is it Loney? Rivera? Gordon? Uribe? I mean, holy crap.
Joe Lemire, Sports Illustrated (18th in power rankings):
The Dodgers very quietly went 34-20 over the season’s final two months to finish with a winning record. Now, 2012 will be a pivotal year for the franchise, as it’s sold to a new owner who will (presumably) allow for a payroll budget befitting a team in the nation’s second biggest market (choosing whether to extend Andre Ethier will be decision No. 1). For now, GM Ned Colletti is scraping together small parts around superstars Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw that should keep the team around .500.
Phil Rogers, Chicago Tribune (14th in power rankings):
While the Dodgers epitomize mediocrity (162-161 the last two years), they are as well situated with foundation pieces as any team. Matt Kemp, the 27-year-old center fielder who was runner-up to Ryan Braun in 2011 MVP voting, is signed through 2019; Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw is under control through ’13.
Tim Brown, Yahoo! Sports:
The rest – as GM Ned Colletti adhered to a $90 million payroll – was bottom-feeding at its most Pittsburgh-ian; from early November to mid-December the Dodgers signed Juan Rivera, Mark Ellis, Matt Treanor, Adam Kennedy, Chris Capuano, Jerry Hairston Jr., Wil Ledezma, Aaron Harang and Josh Bard.
Though Ellis is a reasonable enough guy at second base and Harang seems capable of pitching in the NL West, any exciting news would have to wait until April, when the new owner was due to be installed.
In the two seasons since the Dodgers maneuvered and played themselves to consecutive National League Championship Series, they’re a game over .500. Since coming up a pitcher or two short in two Octobers, they’ve finished fourth in the NL West, then third.
Know why?
They drafted Kemp, developed him, rode out the rough patches with him, watched him become the best player in the National League, and then – over an entire season – batted him directly in front of (deep breath) James Loney, Marcus Thames, Juan Uribe, Jerry Sands, Jay Gibbons, Rod Barajas, Casey Blake, Aaron Miles, Juan Rivera and/or Andre Ethier.
They drafted Clayton Kershaw, developed him, showed him the strike zone, watched him become the best pitcher in the National League, and then had the ballclub fall apart around him, because there would be no more fluke trades like Manny Ramirez, and there would be no more signings of high-end free agents, and there would be plenty of teammates who were simply too old or too young or too incapable.
As a result, the Dodgers have let a soft division get away.
Mike DiGiovanna, Los Angeles Times:
Worst: Mark Ellis, two years, $8.75 million, Dodgers.
Ellis, 34, is an excellent defender and clubhouse leader, but shouldn’t a little offense be a standard feature with this sticker price?
Ellis hit .248 with a .288 OBP, seven homers and 41 RBIs for Oakland and Colorado last season, and his 1.3 wins above replacement (WAR) rating was third-lowest among major league second basemen.
Ned Colletti’s really built himself a nice little low-risk, low-reward team, hasn’t he? There seems to be little chance, short of a crippling injury to Kemp or Kershaw, that we’re in for a 95-loss disaster. On the other hand, a whole lot of things have to go right – a whole hell of a lot – for this club to sniff 90 wins and do more than pick up an “also competed” ribbon in the playoff chase.
Update: Ken Rosenthal reports that the Dodgers have DFA’d Russ Mitchell, opening up a spot on the 40-man roster for Coffey. It’s somewhat surprising to see that Mitchell went over Trent Oeltjen or Ramon Troncoso; on the other hand, Mitchell isn’t very good and is recovering from wrist surgery. When he doesn’t get claimed on waivers – and he won’t – expect Mitchell to end up back in Albuquerque for another summer anyway, potentially meaning we haven’t see the last of him in Dodger blue.
Checking Into the 2012 Albuquerque Isotopes
December 26, 2011 at 10:25 am | Posted in Albuquerque Isotopes, Alfredo Silverio, Justin Sellers, Russ Mitchell, Scott Van Slyke, Tim Federowicz | 38 CommentsLast year at this time, I look a look at how the roster was shaping up for the Triple-A Albuquerque Isotopes. Considering how set the MLB roster seems to be at this point, it’s a whole lot more interesting to look at the minors, so let’s do it again. A year ago, we were excited at the prospect of seeing Dee Gordon, Trayvon Robinson, and Jerry Sands all playing together at the highest minor-league level. This year, there’s a different crop of interesting offensive prospects to keep tabs on, though not likely a whole lot of interest on the mound.
C: After parts of four seasons in Triple-A, dating back to 2008 with Las Vegas, A.J. Ellis is out of options and finally set to get a shot in the bigs. There’s little question here that Tim Federowicz will be the regular Isotopes backstop, since the 102 plate appearances he received with Albuquerque last season were his first above Double-A. Last year’s primary backup, Damaso Espino, is an unsigned free agent, so it’s likely that recently-signed veteran Josh Bard joins Federowicz in New Mexico, with a decent chance we’ll see either prospect Gorman Erickson or recently-signed and well-traveled Salomon Manriquez making appearances at points as well.
1B: Scott Van Slyke, 2011′s Dodger minor league hitter of the year, moves up from Double-A Chattanooga; he could still see some time in the outfield corners, but is mainly seen as a first baseman. Fun stories John Lindsey and Corey Smith are each unsigned and probably won’t be back; Jerry Sands could see some time here as well as in the outfield if he ends up not breaking camp with the big club.
2B: I’m still not convinced that he won’t be traded this winter, but the Mark Ellis signing eliminated any chance that Ivan DeJesus was going to make the Dodgers, so he’ll likely return to Triple-A for a third consecutive season. You have to wonder when Jaime Pedroza, owner of a .370 OBP in parts of two Double-A seasons, could get a shot; in addition, Justin Sellers might be the primary shortstop but should still see time at second and third as he attempts to keep his positional flexibility fresh for his future career as a utilityman.
3B: Russ Mitchell has no shot of making the Dodgers barring a string of injuries, and Pedro Baez & Travis Denker are hardly pushing him from behind, so he’ll return for his third Triple-A year at the age of 27. We’ll see him in the bigs again, as we always do, and he’ll be underwhelming as usual. Did you know the ‘Topes had thirteen third basemen last year? Okay, seven played in fewer than five games, but still.
SS: Sellers probably gets the initial look, though I’ll guess he won’t play the majority of games at shortstop since he’ll both be at second and third for Albquerque and probably spend a decent amount of time in the bigs once the elderly begin to break down. Recent minor-league invites Luis Cruz and Lance Zawadzki should collect plenty of time filling space until Jake Lemmerman is ready, perhaps in 2013.
LF: This largely depends on Sands, because if he’s in the minors, he’s playing every day. Primary 2011 left fielder Trayvon Robinson is of course gone, so there should be an opening for what could be a hilarious season out of Kyle Russell. Russell has been known for his massive power and nearly-as-impressive difficulties in making contact, so that package in ABQ should present some Triple-A fueled numbers that’ll have us all pretending like he’s the next big thing by June.
CF: Alfredo Silverio was added to the 40-man roster earlier this offseason after a solid season in Chattanooga, and with both regular center fielders gone from 2011 – Robinson to Seattle, and Jamie Hoffmann to Colorado – there’s a big hole here for Silverio to fill. Non-roster invite Cory Sullivan probably also fits into the mix here.
RF: Well, I don’t think Jay Gibbons is coming back. Alex Castellanos, impressive in a short look with Chattanooga after being acquired for Rafael Furcal, is likely to start the season as the primary Isotope right fielder; Russell and Sullivan could see time here as well.
Bench: Other than the guys I’ve already mentioned – Bard, Cruz, Zawadzki, & Sullivan – corner infielder Jeff Baisley will probably be an Isotope, plus perhaps 2B/3B Joe Becker, who got into 70 games with the club last season. In the outfield, expect to see Trent Oeltjen or someone else like him, and at some point, Albuquerque native Brian Cavazos-Galvez should make his hometown debut.
Starting Pitching
It helps, somewhat, that the Dodger starting rotation and bullpen are all but set, so there’s no worry about ten guys fighting for that fifth rotation spot. On the other hand, the Dodgers have shown a pattern of trying to keep their top pitching prospects away from the high-offense PCL, preferring to promote them directly from Double-A instead, so these are informed guesses and little more.
SP1: Being the #1 starter on this list doesn’t mean “ace” as it would in the bigs; rather, it’s just the order in which I consider them most likely. John Ely, owner of 25 starts for the Isotopes last year and a few stints with the Dodgers, is almost certainly headed back for another year of Triple-A. He’s roster depth at best – great to have around, never someone you want to count on.
SP2: Will Savage had a reasonably successful season for the Lookouts last year, striking out few but showing excellent control. Hardly a top prospect – 28 next year, and has been a minor-league free agent more than once – he’ll likely turn his invite to big-league camp into a season spent in New Mexico.
SP3: Like Savage, Michael Antonini is hardly a name to know – he was acquired for Chin-lung Hu for chrissake – but he’ll be 27 next year, was invited to the offseason developmental camp, and has a few games of Triple-A experience under his belt from his time with the Mets. He’s been a bit homer-prone in the lower levels, which is somewhat terrifying to think about in Albuquerque.
SP4: I went back and forth on this one, which is why he’s SP4, but I’ll guess that Nathan Eovaldi does head to Triple-A rather than Double-A. That’s partly because the Chattanooga rotation looks like it could be getting full, but also because Eovaldi was decent in his time in the bigs, and sending him back down two levels could look like an insult. Besides, if you’re going to succeed in the NL West, you have to learn how to win in Colorado and Arizona.
Others: Alberto Bastardo and Randy Keisler combined to make 34 starts last year; each is currently a free agent and might not be back. Tim Sexton was awful last year, largely as an injury fill-in, and don’t forget that Carlos Monasterios should be back from elbow surgery at some point. There’s probably also going to be another Dana Eveland-like veteran that we don’t know about yet, and it’s possible that younger arms like Allen Webster, Chris Withrow, and Stephen Fife could push their way up if the organization doesn’t try to keep them away from Albuquerque.
Relief Pitching
Take your pick. It’s possible that none of the top three Isotope leaders in games pitched from 2011 – Jon Link (already signed with Baltimore), Travis Schlichting, Merkin Valdez – returns. The fourth was Ramon Troncoso, who might make the Dodgers but is far more likely to be DFA’d since he’s out of options. Josh Lindblom could appear if he doesn’t make the big team, but the entire collection of recently signed fungible veterans – Angel Guzman, Fernando Nieve, Jose Ascanio, Ryan Tucker, Shane Lindsay, Alberto Castillo, Matt Chico, Scott Rice, John Grabow, Wil Ledezma – are candidates to make up the bullpen, as again, the Dodgers try not to put their better prospects like Shawn Tolleson, Steve Ames, and Josh Wall here.
Remember, the Isotopes have used 49, 56, and 52 players going back to 2009, so this is an extremely high-level look; needs change as the big club makes their own moves.
MSTI’s 2011 in Review: Third Base
October 10, 2011 at 11:41 am | Posted in Casey Blake, Juan Uribe, Russ Mitchell | 45 CommentsToday we move on to third base, and man, it ain’t pretty. The six Dodger third basemen combined for just a .624 OPS, good for 25th in MLB. Sensing a theme yet? We already touched on the second biggest offender at the hot corner, Aaron Miles, with the second basemen, so today we’re left with the hungry, the tired, the overpaid wretches. This isn’t going to be pretty.
Juan Uribe (F….ing Juan Uribe)
.204/.264/.293 .557 4hr -0.1 WAR
(Like I was really going to use anything other than the “Emo Juan Uribe” picture, even ahead of the “Juan and Ned awkwardly shaking hands” photo.)
I’ll say this for Juan Uribe: even though we all absolutely hated the three year, $21m contract Ned Colletti so generously bestowed upon him last winter, none of us ever expected this. Oh, we knew he’d have a lousy OBP and be in no way worth the contract, but this? The fourth worst TAv and wOBA in baseball, along with two stints on the disabled list? I don’t think so.
At the time, I did note that there could be some positives from the deal, mostly in that it would ensure Ryan Theriot would be gone and that it’d give the club flexibility in an uncertain infield situation going forward. I also said this, of course:
Now that we’ve got the positives out of the way… what in the hell is this team doing giving three years* and $22m to Juan Uribe?! (*standard caveat of “it’s just a report, and not an official deal yet” applies.) Uribe’s never had even a two-year deal in his life. He was quite good in 2005 with the White Sox (111 OPS+, 23 HR), but after four consecutive years of not having an OBP over .301, he was cut loose after 2008. The Giants got him for 1 year, $1m in 2009, and he was quite good again – 112 OPS+ – so they resigned him for 1 year, $3.2m in 2010. Other than increasing his HR, he completely regressed at he plate. His OPS fell from .824 to .749, and his wOBA fell from .351 to .322.
That doesn’t make him useless, but as I’ve said every other time I’ve talked about him, I like him for one year and I’d accept an option for a second. But now we’re taking a guy whose age 25-28 seasons were all basically a waste, had one good year at 29 and couldn’t quite keep it up at 30 three guaranteed years? Why? Because he was a Giant? Because he hit a homer in the World Series (despite doing little else in October)?
Nearly a year later, I’m having a hard time disagreeing with any of that, except to note that since his deal was back-loaded, he still has $15m coming to him, so we’re far from done with him. The best part is, three of Uribe’s four dingers came in a five-game span at the end of April. Outside of that five-game stretch, he hit one homer in 72 games, and was awful no matter how you split the stats. No, really: look at his splits. Try and find one this isn’t execrable. Day, night, home, road, lefty, righty, black, white, up, down – he was atrocious at the plate in every possible way, though he was something of a pleasant surprise defensively. Sadly, thanks to his contract and the uncertain state of the Dodger infield with the possibility that as many as five veteran infielders won’t return (Loney / Carroll / Furcal / Blake / Miles), you’re probably still looking at your starting third baseman next year. And lord help us all, because the most positive outlook anyone could have on him is, “well, geez, he can’t be that bad again, right?”.
Casey Blake (D)
.252/.342/.371 .713 4hr 0.6 WAR
It’s hard to say that Casey Blake underachieved in 2011, since coming off a disappointing 2010 and with the injury history of third basemen his age being what it is, expectations were pretty much as low as they could be; if anything, we’ve been saying “Casey Blake” + “2011″ = “disaster” since as far back as December of 2008.
Yet while there was almost no hope that having Blake as the everyday third baseman was going to work out this year, there was still the chance that he could a productive member of this year’s team. If the chips had fallen in the right way, having Blake as a four-corners type who mainly faced lefty pitching could have turned out to be a very nice role. Of course, it didn’t happen that way; Blake started the season on the disabled list thanks to a back injury suffered while trying to bunt during a spring training game. (Which, ugh.) Upon his return, he lasted just 14 games before undergoing surgery to relieve a particularly nasty staph infection in his left elbow, which cost him more than a month. Finally getting past that, he returned in late May to hit .195/.278/.310 over the next five weeks before succumbing to a pinched nerve in his neck on July 3, sidelining him until the final day of the month. He played in just 19 more games before finally undergoing surgery on the neck, which would have been his fourth trip to the disabled list of the season if not for the fact that the September 1 roster expansion rendered such a move moot.
With all the injuries, Blake never really had a chance to contribute, and so his 2011 was basically a lost season. It’ll almost certainly end his Dodger career, and at 38 it might very well be the end of his MLB career as well. Despite the wasted 2011 and lousy 2010, Blake ends his Dodger career as one of the better third baseman in the history of the club, and while that may say more about the history of the hot corner for this organization than it does about Blake’s performance, it’s still evidence of a successful Dodger stint from one of the more popular players on the team.
Blake will be missed. From a baseball sense, I’m glad he’s not going to be on the club going forward, because I don’t think he can still be a useful performer, but I’ve enjoyed watching him for 3+ years, even if the circumstances of his acquisition were less than ideal. Best of luck, Casey.
Russ Mitchell (inc.)
.157/.259/.294 .553 2hr -0.1 WAR
It’s not a huge secret that I’ve never thought much of Mitchell, dating back to what I said when he was first recalled in September of 2010:
To be honest, I can’t say I’m a huge fan of Mitchell. He’ll be 26 before next season starts, yet he had a line of just .241/.298/.406 last year, his second season in AA. Overall, his career OBP in the minors was just .321. Somehow that was good enough to get him to AAA, where he took advantage of the ABQ environment to rake: .315/.363/.535, with 23 homers. That’s not an accident, either; his OPS at home was 1.164, but on the road it was just .834, and it’s not like ABQ is the only park in the PCL that caters to offense, either.
Mitchell repaid that trust by getting six hits in 43 MLB plate appearances last season; this year, in his age-26 season, he hit just .230/.318/.401 away from the friendly confines of Albuquerque. Then, in two separate stints in the bigs this year (once for a month in April and May when Blake hurt his elbow, then the last month of the season) he managed just eight hits in 58 plate appearances, though to his credit one was a game-tying homer against the White Sox to avoid a sweep in the 9th inning in May.
If anything, Mitchell’s offseason will be more interesting than his season, since he had surgery on his left wrist and will be headed to winter ball to attempt to add “emergency catcher” to his resume. If he hopes to have a major league career, the transition better work, because I’m just not seeing it. Even with two ABQ-fueled years, his minor league OBP is just .326, and two MLB cups of coffee haven’t gone well. I can’t imagine he starts 2012 anywhere but back in AAA, and if he doesn’t, that’s a big problem.
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Next! Rafael Furcal bids adieu! Jamey Carroll picks up the slack once again! Dee Gordon‘s flashy debut! And Justin Sellers‘ uncertain future! It’s shortstop!
James Loney’s Obsession With the Rockies
August 27, 2011 at 7:36 am | Posted in Dioner Navarro, James Loney, Jamey Carroll, Russ Mitchell | 15 Comments
James Loney has seven homers this season. Anything stand out to you on the list below?
| 2011 HRs | Date | Pitcher | RBI | BOP | WPA | Play Description | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2011-04-06 | @ | COL | Jason Hammel | 1 | 5 | 0.091 | Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep RF) |
| 2 | 2011-05-27 | FLA | Javier Vazquez | 1 | 6 | 0.122 | Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep RF Line) | |
| 3 | 2011-05-30 | COL | Jason Hammel | 2 | 6 | 0.043 | Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep RF); Ethier Scores | |
| 4 | 2011-06-12 | @ | COL | Ubaldo Jimenez | 4 | 5 | 0.329 | Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep RF); Carroll, Miles, Kemp, Loney Score |
| 5 | 2011-08-07 | @ | ARI | Ian Kennedy | 1 | 6 | 0.116 | Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep CF-RF) |
| 6 | 2011-08-21 | @ | COL | Kevin Millwood | 1 | 6 | 0.118 | Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep RF) |
| 7 | 2011-08-26 | COL | Matt Reynolds | 2 | 2 | 0.078 | Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep CF-RF); Sellers Scores |
Five of the seven have come against the Rockies. That’s 71.4% of his 2011 dingers, despite the fact that only 12.9% of his 2011 plate appearances have come against Colorado. But it gets better; his final homer in 2010, the only one he hit from September 1 on… came in Colorado on September 28 against last night’s starter, Esmil Rogers, so six of Loney’s last eight dingers (you know, the eight whole homers he’s hit in nearly the last calendar year) have come against Colorado.
If you’re Colorado, how are you not making a low-risk play for Loney this winter, even with the presence of Todd Helton? Not only to get Loney hitting in Coors Field every day, but to stop having to see him in the opposing lineup.
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More confirmation of why Dioner Navarro got cut, from Tony Jackson:
Dioner Navarro’s ouster from the Los Angeles Dodgers earlier this week was hastened by a failure to devote the requisite time to game preparation that is expected of a catcher, multiple sources said before Friday night’s game against the Colorado Rockies. Navarro was designated for assignment on Tuesday, giving the Dodgers 10 days from that point to trade him, release him or outright him to the minors after he clears waivers.
Good riddance. For a guy who wasn’t performing at the plate, was having defensive issues, and had a history of locker room issues (quitting on Tampa Bay last year), the lack of effort is shocking. Fortunately, he’ll be someone else’s problem now.
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Steve Dilbeck of the LA Times wants the Dodgers to trade Jamey Carroll:
Work the deal. Get what you can, even if it’s precious little.
Carroll deserves the opportunity to play for a contender, to make a real postseason contribution. At his age, he may not get another chance. The Milwaukee Brewers had reportedly talked to the Dodgers about Carroll prior to the July 31 non-waiver trading deadline.
I agreed with this at the July 31 deadline. Carroll was a potentially valuable piece to a contender, and could have brought back a decent return. But now, I’m not even sure it’s worth it, since the Dodgers would only be able to talk to the team that claims him, preventing any sort of bidding war. (Such as it were.) It’d be nice for Carroll, I suppose, and I agree that he’s not a part of the team future. But I also understand the thought that with Juan Uribe out, Dee Gordon not back, and Casey Blake unreliable, you want to make sure you have more than just Aaron Miles and Justin Sellers to finish out the season. (Eugenio Velez doesn’t count. Eugenio Velez never counts.)
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Russ Mitchell, catcher? Don Mattingly noted that the team will try him behind the plate during winter ball in an effort to increase his versatility. Mitchell’s probably never going to hit enough to be an everyday player, so if he can make this stick, all the better for him. (It’s here where I’ll try to forget Ned Colletti’s claims that “catchers can’t be made”, at the time of the Trayvon Robinson deal.) Usually conversions like this happen in the low minors, though; I can’t think of another recent example where this kind of move has been tried (successfully) for a player who Mitchell’s age who has already seen big league time.
2011 Midseason Grades: Offense
July 11, 2011 at 6:13 am | Posted in A.J. Ellis, Aaron Miles, Andre Ethier, Casey Blake, Dioner Navarro, Eugenio Velez, Hector Gimenez, James Loney, Jamey Carroll, Jamie Hoffmann, Jay Gibbons, Jerry Sands, Juan Castro, Matt Kemp, Rafael Furcal, Rod Barajas, Russ Mitchell, Tony Gwynn, Trent Oeltjen | 54 Comments
The All-Star break is here, and that means it’s everyone’s favorite time of the year: midseason grades. It’s been a tough year for the Dodgers on and off the field, though we do of course have the pleasure of a few exceptionally bright spots. As always, the grades are in relation to what was reasonably expected of the player at the beginning of the season, not in comparison to other players in the bigs. Otherwise, Jose Bautista would get an A, and no one else would get above a Q. Fewer than 50 plate appearances or 10 innings pitched gets you an incomplete.
All stats are via baseball-reference. Today we’ll do hitters, and before the break is over we’ll get to pitchers, management, and one new kind of review. As always, these letter grades are subjective opinions and meant more for fun than anything. Except for Juan Uribe’s. There’s nothing fun about Juan Uribe.
Catchers
Rod Barajas D+ (.220/.262/.385 8hr 0.2 WAR)
And right off the bat, our rating system is being tested. Do I give Barajas an F, because he’s not any good, or a C, because we never expected him to be any good? I’ll go with a D+, because even though he’s underperforming his own mediocre career stats, he was still second on the team in homers until the final game before the break. I suppose that says a lot more about the Dodgers than it does about him, though. Due to the low bar for offense from catching in the bigs, he’s actually slightly above replacement, though it’s hard to look at the 46/8 K/BB without getting a little ill. He’s due to be activated from the disabled list on Friday, allowing us to start up the always fun “Navarro or Ellis?” game again. (It’ll be Navarro sticking, of course.)
Dioner Navarro F (.183/.234/.287 2hr -0.1 WAR)
You don’t need me to go back and really find all of the articles I wrote over the winter asking why he was worth a $1m major-league contract and why he was guaranteed a spot over the likely superior A.J. Ellis, right? Navarro came in with the lowest of expectations, yet after missing the first month with an oblique injury, has somehow still managed to underperform. Despite that, he still manages to come up with the game on the line in the ninth inning nearly every single night. The world is a twisted place.
Fun fact: Navarro is the only player in history with the name “Dioner”. Fun fact #2: he’s still looking for his first hit against a lefty in fourteen tries this season.
A. J. Ellis (C) (.222/.364/.222 0hr -0.1 WAR)
I realize I’ve heaped far more praise on a 30-year-old minor league lifer with absolutely no power than he really deserves, but the Dodger catching situation is dire, and his long minor-league record and short major league stints show an above-average ability to get on base, which is exactly what this lineup is missing. Defensively, I won’t insult your intelligence by citing CERA, but it’s hard to think it’s a coincidence that Chad Billingsley’s mid-season slump turned around precisely when Ellis started being his regular catcher. Too bad he’s almost certainly headed back for Barajas on Friday.
Hector Gimenez (inc.) (.143/.143/.143 0hr -0.1 WAR)
I would like to say something witty or insightful about Hector Gimenez, but that infers that I have absolutely any recollection of him as a Dodger whatsoever. Pass.
Infielders
James Loney (C-) (.268/.311/.342 4hr -0.5 WAR)
I feel weird giving Loney a C-, because his line and a grade in that range suggest that he was his normal mediocre self all season. Far from it; by early May, he was the most hated man in LA since OJ and we were all writing articles about how bad his season was going to be on a historical level. Since then, he’s basically been the best non-Kemp hitter on the team. That doesn’t mean he’s good – hooray, a .751 OPS from a 1B since April 26! – and again, that says a lot about the rest of the players on this team, but nothing tells you more about the plight of the 2011 Dodgers than the fact that their punchless overpaid first baseman is no longer even close to being the biggest issue here.
Jamey Carroll (A+) (.297/.368/.366 0hr 1.6 WAR)
Last season, Carroll had a .718 OPS and was largely hailed as the team MVP for stepping in to cover for Rafael Furcal at shortstop for nearly the entire season. For a 36-year-old career backup who had played in more than 113 just once, it was quite the impressive feat. More impressive? The fact that he’s exceeding that this year, currently with a .734 OPS. In a lower run scoring environment, that’s good for a 111 OPS+. Once again, the team has been crushed by injuries. Once again, Jamey Carroll has risen to the occasion and more. I’m not sure what the future holds for Carroll in Los Angeles – this is the last year of his contract, and unsurprisingly teams are showing trade interest – but he has consistently outperformed expectations. I’ll miss him when he’s gone.
Fun Carroll fact: since you know I have no use for RBI, regard this as more of a fun statistical quirk than any sort of value judgement, but he has somehow managed to step to the plate 311 times and drive in just 8 runners. I suppose that’s what happens when you don’t hit homers and you’re either batting leadoff (behind the pitcher and the horrible bottom of the lineup) or 8th (behind low-OBP guys like Uribe, Barajas, and Loney).
Aaron Miles (A) (.318/.337/.381 1hr 1.1 WAR)
Credit where credit is due: Aaron Miles has been a really, really nice part of this team. I hardly need to remind you about all the jokes we made at his expense when he was signed and in the spring, but after being forced into far more playing time than anyone expected, he’s responded by becoming arguably the 4th-best hitter on the team. (Like Barajas and his homers, that says a lot more about the other hitters on the club, but still). We expected absolutely nothing from him – less than nothing, perhaps – and not only has he stepped up where needed, he led the NL in batting average in June.
It’s not all that simple, of course. .300 average or not, he’s not walking and he provides zero power, so his OPS is just barely over .700, and his .344 BABIP, 35 points over his career average, seems unlikely to hold. So let’s not get too caught up in praise for Miles to pretend he’s actually, you know, good. But for a non-roster guy who was something like the 8th infielder entering the season? Well done, Aaron. Well done.
Hey, you think we can sucker some team into trading for him at the deadline?
Ivan DeJesus, Jr. (inc.) (.188/.235/.188 0hr -0.5 WAR)
So far, DeJesus looks to be this year’s winner of the “Blake DeWitt Memorial LA-to-ABQ Frequent Flyer” award, because he saw three different stints with the big club, including the pleasure of flying all the way to Cincinnati for the pleasure of one pinch-hitting appearance in June. That being the case, you can’t really judge his big-league performance too much, though he also didn’t do a lot to change my perception of him as a bench player at best. Back in ABQ, he’s hitting .304, which is nice, though a .758 OPS in that environment isn’t encouraging.
Fun fact: for a guy whose name isn’t exactly “John Smith“, Ivan DeJesus is neither the best Ivan or the best DeJesus to play in the bigs this year.
Juan Uribe (oh holy good lord, F, and I don’t just mean the letter grade) (.207/.273/.306 4hr 0.4 WAR)
Uribe has been so bad that there’s an entire Tumblr dedicated to how sad he looks and makes us feel. He’s so bad that when an obviously fantastical rumor popped up for about five seconds about how the Dodgers might be looking to send him back to San Francisco, we jumped on it even though we knew it was BS, just for the small amount of hope it brought. He’s been so bad that he had a lousy April (.247/.303/.420) and hasn’t come close to even matching that since. He’s been so bad that of all the players in the bigs with at least 200 plate appearances, only three have a lower TAv than him. He’s been so bad that he has just one homer since April turned into May, and even that came off Brad Penny, so I feel like he was just trolling us. But hey, not like we have to stare at him for 2.5 more years or anything.
The funny part is, he’s actually been so good in the field that it pushes him above replacement level. That 0.4 breaks down into -0.4 oWAR and 0.8 dWAR. It doesn’t make him a good player, and it doesn’t justify the contract, but it’s something. I suppose that something should probably be enough to get him more than an F, but… no.
Rafael Furcal F (.185/.227/.228 1hr -0.5 WAR)
How do you even judge Furcal at this point? It can’t be on health, because he’s managed to end up on the disabled list twice more this year (though at least it wasn’t his back this time). It’s hard to do so on production, since he’s constantly either just about to go on the disabled list or just coming back from it. I suppose the fact that he’s not in a full body cast is something, but that line above… yeesh. Anyone who’s still dreaming of trading him to someone at the deadline probably needs to wake up because unfortunately, Furcal’s best days are behind him. As, probably, are his days of being able to obtain health insurance when he’s no longer a ballplayer.
Dee Gordon C+ (.232/.250/.280 0hr 0.0 WAR)
We all knew Gordon was recalled far too soon, and it showed: he was overmatched at the plate and made some critical errors in the field. He also brought the kind of excitement that we haven’t seen in years, if ever. If you have any doubt about that, just head on over to this GIF-heavy recap of the amazing feats he pulled off in just a single game. A lot of players end up with 0.0 WAR because they’ve been boring or barely playable, and haven’t contributed anything either positive or negative. That’s not the case with Gordon; he did plenty of things that hurt the team, but he made up for them with a ton of positives. That’s how it all evens out, and for a raw 23-year-old, yeah, I’ll take that.
Juan Castro A (.286/.333/.286 0hr 0.0 WAR)
Castro gave us the greatest gift of all, retiring this week before subjecting us to a fifth stint as a Dodger. That alone gets the man an A.
Casey Blake D- (.243/.346/.386 4hr 0.3 WAR)
Things the 37-year-old Blake has been on the disabled list for this season: sore oblique, infected elbow, pinched nerve in neck, Legionnaire’s disease, athlete’s thumb, bone-itis, ringworm infestation, osteoporosis. Also, he narrowly avoided a brush with the law for continually yelling at those damned kids to get off his lawn.
Casey Blake is old.
Russ Mitchell (inc.) (.115/.258/.269 1hr 0.1 WAR)
Mitchell has 74 MLB plate appearances in his short career. He has nine hits, and though one was a game-tying homer in the 9th inning against the White Sox earlier this year, that’s good for an OPS+ of 29. That’s an unfairly small sample size, of course, but he’s also hitting .244 in ABQ right now. Russ Mitchell: nope.
Jerry Sands (C-) (.200/.294/.328 2hr -0.4 WAR)
Like Gordon, Sands was probably promoted too soon, and like Gordon, he didn’t really provide results, but did provide hope for the future. All of the stories we heard about his maturity and plate approach seemed to be true, yet so far it hasn’t translated into production. Sands is crushing the ball once again in ABQ, and with the Dodger offense still stagnant, we’ll see him back up in blue before very long.
Tony Gwynn (B-) (.256/.316/.326 0hr 0.6 WAR)
It’s been something of an interesting season for Gwynn. He was his normal Gwynn-like self in April (i.e. bad), hitting .264/.291/.377 before going completely off the rails in May: he managed just two hits all month and received only four starts, as Sands took over the bulk of the left field work. At that point, with his batting average below .200 and with nothing to his name other than two game-saving catches, we started wondering how long he’d stick on the roster, especially when he didn’t get into any of the first three games in June. On June 4, he entered in the 8th inning and got two hits in a game that went 11 innings. He got a hit the next game, and the next, and before you knew it he’d hit in 7 of the first 8 games of the month. It would get better – since June 26, which was two weeks ago yesterday, he’s had five multihit games, including three with three and one with four. Now that Sands and Gordon are both in the minors, he’s effectively taken over as both the starting left fielder and leadoff hitter. Because he owns the only plus glove in what is a subpar defensive outfield, this was the outcome we’d always wanted. Now let’s see if he can really keep it up.
Marcus Thames F (.197/.243/.333 2hr -0.6 WAR)
Injured? Yep, twice, even if only one led to a DL stint. Poor on defense? You better believe it. Unproductive on offense? Well, the line above doesn’t lie, right? I sure hope he’s renting, not buying.
Jay Gibbons F (.255/.323/.345 1hr -0.5 WAR)
Well, he got DFA’d and claimed by no one, placing him back in AAA, so it couldn’t have been that good of a first half, right? You want to feel bad because his vision problems really derailed last season’s feel-good story right from the start… but then you remember he wasn’t really ever that good in the first place. The best part of that -0.5 WAR is that his oWAR is actually 0.1… meaning he’s really, really bad in the field.
JaMarcus Gwybbons, Jr. D-
Remember when the left field situation was going to be a nice trio between Gwynn, Thames, and Gibbons? Sheesh. Until Gwynn’s hot spurt over the last few weeks, they combined to offer absolutely nothing. Less than nothing, if you just went by WAR. At various points this season, we’ve made arguments for DFA’ing all three of them. Count this under “plans that were unlikely to work and then did, in fact, not work.”
Trent Oeltjen (inc.) (.265/.386/.441 1hr 0.6 WAR)
Hey, remember when Oeltjen went 4-4 with a homer in that 15-0 drubbing of Minnesota? That was rad, right? Unfortunately for him, he had 3 hits in 20 PA before that game, and just 2 hits in 20 PA since.
Xavier Paul (inc.) (.273/.273/.273 0hr -0.1 WAR)
Paul’s ultimate contribution to the 2011 Dodgers is managing to grab a left field start before his departure, thus helping us push towards our ultimate goal of setting a record for most left fielders in a season. He’s got an 84 OPS+ for Pittsburgh since being picked up, though he’s improved his OPS in each full month there.
Jamie Hoffmann (inc.) (.000/.000/.000 0hr -0.2 WAR)
The man got four plate appearances. Let’s not infer too much from that. I still think he could be a pretty useful fourth outfielder in the bigs, as he’s a well-regarded defender having another high-OBP season in the minors, this time with a little pop.
Eugenio Velez (inc.) (.000/.000/.000 0hr -0.2 WAR)
Baron Ironglove von Pickoff. Still can’t believe he’s a Dodger. Or a major leaguer. Or a human being.
Matt Kemp (A+++) (.313/.398/.584 22hr 27sb 5.7 WAR)
I know you come here for informed baseball analysis and all (uh, I hope), and I could write 10,000 words on why Kemp is awesome. I will at some point, and 9,990 of those words will probably be about how I always said that he’d have a monstrous season this year, even as half the city was tearing him apart last year. There will be a time for that sort of insight, but for now, let’s leave it at this: 91 games into the season, Kemp has 5.7 WAR. That puts him on pace for about 9.9 WAR over the full season… a mark bettered by just two Dodgers in history. Yeah. His season is that good. Remember when everyone wanted to trade him, secure in the knowledge that he had neither the baseball IQ or work ethic to become a star? Yeah, me neither.
Matt Kemp is a shiny golden god.
Andre Ethier (B+) (.311/.383/.463 9hr 1.9 WAR)
Ethier, without question, represented one of the more difficult grades to give out. 30 game hitting streak? Yes, please. .383 OBP? Delicious. While his OPS is nearly 40 points off his 2008 career high, the lower offensive environment this year means that it’s good for a career-best 141 OPS+, so hooray for that. No, he’s not hitting lefties (.242/.282/.368), but he never hits lefties, so that’s not much of a surprise. All in all, it’s been a very solid year from one of the two main offensive threats this club has.
Yet… it feels like something is missing. Prior to his two-homer day yesterday, he’d hit just seven dingers, and his SLG is down for the third year in a row. It’s certainly not enough of a problem to criticize him, hence the good grade, and perhaps yesterday’s outburst was the start of something new. I just can’t help shaking the feeling that is very unpopular among the casual fans who love him so much: Ethier is a very good player, but not a superstar. We’ll need to keep that in mind when his contract is up. I don’t want to get too down on him, though: right now, he’s the second best player on this team, and that in itself is quite valuable.
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Don’t forget: Matt Kemp is in the Home Run Derby tonight and will be live tweeting @TheRealMattKemp throughout.
The Rapture Is Truly Upon Us
May 20, 2011 at 5:34 pm | Posted in Russ Mitchell | 22 CommentsIn the final two innings of tonight’s game, the following occurred. Russ Mitchell hit a game-tying homer with two outs in the ninth off of White Sox closer Sergio Santos, who’d been nearly perfect all year. Juan Castro (!) knocked in the go-ahead run in the tenth, soon followed by run-scoring hits from James Loney and Jay Gibbons. Finally, Mike MacDougal finished for the save. That’d be one injury replacement minor leaguer, two veterans who don’t really belong here, and the worst first baseman in baseball, all contributing within the span of about twenty minutes.
Sure, superstar Matt Kemp crushed another homer and megastar Jamey Carroll had four hits. But you’re really going to tell me the rest wasn’t a sign from the heavens (or, uh, below)? Hope you enjoyed the last Dodger game ever to be played.
Casey Blake to DL, Russ Mitchell to LA
April 29, 2011 at 7:20 am | Posted in Casey Blake, Russ Mitchell | 32 Comments
No surprise here: Casey Blake is headed to the disabled list, with Russ Mitchell called up to replace him, reports Ken Rosenthal. (h/t Rob @ 6-4-2.) Blake’s infection sounds particularly nasty, according to friends Marc Normandin and Corey Dawkins at Baseball Prospectus:
Infections can be rather serious—just ask Casey Blake, who was placed on the disabled list with an infection of the olecranon bursa in his left elbow. His was serious enough to require IV antibiotics, and he may require minor surgery to drain and clean the area out.
The Dodgers are expecting Blake to miss about three to four weeks and will be conservative in bringing him back, so as not to risk a recurrence. Because of the location of the bursa, it is susceptible to re-injury during the course of a baseball game by sliding and landing on the elbow.
I suppose Blake isn’t going to be the one to break the sorry streak of 37+ third basemen, as I surmised last September. Still, while Blake certainly wasn’t going to keep up the .321/.446/.509 run he was on (in only 66 plate appearances, of course), his loss is pretty damaging to a club that regularly rolls out a lineup that features 3-4 players hitting .220 or less. With Rafael Furcal also disabled and Juan Uribe at much less than full strength, you can look forward to a lot of underwhelming infield configurations over the next few weeks.
As for Mitchell, it’s no secret that I’m not a fan, claiming last September that his mostly underwhelming minor league career was inflated only by the friendly confines of Albuquerque. He didn’t do much to change that impression in September, getting just six hits in 43 plate appearances. Beyond that, ABQ hasn’t been nearly as friendly to him so far this year, as his line stands at .214/.281/.393 thus far. Still, injury concerns being what they are, there’s nothing wrong with his recall, particularly because he’s the only other infielder on the 40-man roster. (And calm down with the Corey Smith love just yet, friends.) Mitchell’s probably not going to contribute much at the plate, and at 26 isn’t really a prospect, but his defensive versatility should come in handy for the next few weeks. If anything, at least he’s an extra bat on the bench, which had been woefully short with Blake and Uribe active but unavailable in recent days.
MSTI’s 2010 in Review: Third Base
October 26, 2010 at 11:50 am | Posted in Casey Blake, Russ Mitchell | 21 CommentsThird base!
Casey Blake (D)
.248/.320/.407 .727 17hr 3.1 WAR
Hell of year for Casey Blake, starting in spring training when we had to listen to rumors that he might actually be the club’s backup shortstop. That never happened, of course; unfortunately for Blake, what also never happened was his ability to perform at all like his career 2009 year, since he had his worst season since 2005 in nearly every way. Even coming off a few good seasons, when you’re 36, you don’t get the benefit of the doubt as far as having an off-season. You get people wondering if you’re cooked.
Though he had an okay April, Blake slumped badly by mid-May, leading me to point out that he was the only Dodger not riding the team’s hot streak:
Yet there’s one member of the Dodgers who hasn’t been able to enjoy the ride as much as everyone else, and that’s Casey Blake. Blake’s been, on the whole, pretty lousy this season: a .233/.323/.397 line with 3 homers isn’t going to get you very far as a third baseman. His .720 OPS in fact ranks him 20th among MLB 3B, and his .265 True Average tells a similar tale, putting him 22nd. Even his defense, surprisingly good last year (12.0 runs above average per UZR), has slipped below average to -0.9 this year. The standard “small sample size” warnings apply, but it’s hard to ignore that he has six errors in six weeks this year, after ten in six months last year.
Later in that post, I jokingly suggested that his failings were because he’d been clean-shaven to start the year, and he’d need to grow back the beard if he was going to succeed. A few days later we marveled that he was indeed growing it back, and it was fun for the next month: between May 15 – June 15, he hit .300/.371/.500 with four homers.
But it didn’t last. His overall OPS for June was just .692, and his July was completely atrocious, at just .174/.242/.314. In August, he contributed to another Jonathan Broxton implosion by allowing a nearly-certain 9th-inning double play ball go through his legs, and in September I had to ask if he was done:
Looking deeper into the stats helps to shed some light here. Blake’s BABIP of .307 is nearly identical to his career .305 mark, so he’s not been particularly unlucky, and his BB% isn’t far off from his usual line either. But he’s certainly striking out more (26.9% would be a career high, and is 4% more than usual), and you can bet that’s in large part because he’s offering at far more pitches outside the strike zone than he’s ever done before (swinging at 27.5% of such offerings, well above his career mark of 20.9%).
Then there’s the fact that he’s getting killed on fastballs. Last year, Blake was worth 18.7 runs above average against heaters, good for 9th among MLB 3B. This year, he’s dropped down to just 3.5 runs above average against fastballs. So we have an older player, who can’t catch up to fastballs anymore, and is losing his plate discipline and swinging at more balls outside the zone – and he’s getting destroyed by fellow righties (.223/.293/.363). You don’t have to go too far to think that the bat speed is slowing and he’s having trouble adjusting.
Unfortunately, history isn’t on Blake’s side either. There’s only been seventeen seasons since 1961 in which a third baseman 37 or older (since Blake will be 37 most of next year) has managed to even play enough to qualify for the batting title. Looking at that list, most of them are Hall of Famers (Mike Schmidt, Pete Rose, Brooks Robinson, Wade Boggs, Cal Ripken, Jr.), or about to be (Chipper Jones) – and even then there’s quite a few dreadful seasons on that list. Do we really expect that Casey Blake is the one who bucks that trend?
Needless to say, I don’t have high hopes for Blake in 2011. This is exactly what I was afraid of back in December of 2008, when he signed his three-year deal – that while he’d be fine in 2009, he’d be questionable for 2010, and totally undesirable in 2011. (Coincidentally, that’s very similar to how I felt about Ted Lilly‘s three-year deal.)
Still, there’s no chance of moving him, so he’ll be back. All you can really hope for is that the Dodgers, as I argued in my 2011 plan, take advantage of his large lefty/righty split (.895 vs .663 OPS) and make him a lefty-mashing 1B/3B off the bench. That’s what I want to do, and it’s what they should do; but I doubt it’s all that high on their list, unfortunately.
Oh, and since there’s no other 3B remotely on the radar in the system (unless Jerry Sands unexpectedly shows an aptitude for the position in the Arizona Fall League), expect a lot of talk next year about who replaces Blake in 2012 and beyond.
Russ Mitchell (inc.)
.143/.140/.286 .425 1hr -0.4 WAR
Mitchell was recalled on September 6, after rosters had expanded, and at the time I didn’t think much of him:
To be honest, I can’t say I’m a huge fan of Mitchell. He’ll be 26 before next season starts, yet he had a line of just .241/.298/.406 last year, his second season in AA. Overall, his career OBP in the minors was just .321. Somehow that was good enough to get him to AAA, where he took advantage of the ABQ environment to rake: .315/.363/.535, with 23 homers.
That’s not an accident, either; his OPS at home was 1.164, but on the road it was just .834, and it’s not like ABQ is the only park in the PCL that caters to offense, either. Still, Mitchell offers nice versatility – while he’s primarily a 3B, he also saw time at 1B, 2B, LF, & RF this year – and it’s nice to see another homegrown prospect make the bigs, so maybe he’ll make an impression and get into the mix for a utility role next year.
Mitchell got a decent showcase, starting 11 games and receiving 43 PA in September, but he did absolutely nothing to make a mark. Sure, he hit two homers, and that’s nice, but he started out 0-15, managed just six hits, and didn’t walk even once while striking out eight times. Now, he started at 1B, 3B, and LF, and he can supposedly also play 2B and RF, so the versatility is nice, but he also managed to make three errors in his short time up.
Obviously, Mitchell didn’t really make much of a case towards a bench job in 2011, and there’s really no good reason he shouldn’t be in AAA to start the year. Best case scenario, he puts up some more ABQ-fueled numbers and can be overvalued in a trade.
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Next! We say goodbye to Manny Ramirez! We wish Scott Podsednik never came to town! We try to forget Garret Anderson ever existed! And we welcome back Jay Gibbons from baseball purgatory! It’s left field!
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