Plenty of Dodgers Making the Cut on Bill James’ Top 100 Pitcher’s Duels
January 20, 2012 at 8:47 am | Posted in Clayton Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda, Rubby de la Rosa, Ted Lilly | 14 CommentsLast year, ESPN and Bill Simmons teamed up to launch “Grantland“, a new venture aimed at focusing more on long-form sportswriting, a throwback to the glory days of magazines and newspapers, as opposed to the shorter blog posts which are more popular today. Predictably, the feedback has been mixed; some of the work I’ve read has been excellent, but good lord, can it be pretentious.
Your feelings on Simmons aside, it’s hard to argue with a staff that includes Chuck Klosterman, Jonah Keri, Rany Jazayerli, and Katie Baker, among many others, and today they’ve added a new luminary: baseball stats legend Bill James. James debuts with a list of the 100 best pitcher’s duels of 2011 – completely subjectively, of course, because how else could you do it – and wouldn’t you know it, 10 of his first 42 entries involved the Dodgers. As it turns out – and this is going to come as a huge surprise, I know – Clayton Kershaw is really, really good, and I don’t know if anything was more fun this past season than watching him constantly beat down Tim Lincecum and the Giants.
3. July 20, 2011, Dodgers at San Francisco, Clayton Kershaw against Tim Lincecum
Now how about adding eight shutout innings with 12 whiffs against just three hits and a walk? By Game Score, which is admittedly imperfect, that was the third best start of Kershaw’s career. That it was also the third best start of his season should tell you a lot about just how good his 2011 has been so far, particularly now that he’s up to 23 consecutive scoreless innings and an MLB-best 167 strikeouts.
5. September 9, 2011, Dodgers in San Francisco again, Kershaw and Lincecum rematch
Looks like I didn’t say anything, because I was traveling for a wedding that weekend. Stupid weddings, part one.
18. September 20, Giants in L.A., Lincecum against Kershaw, Round 3
Stupid weddings, part two. This was my birthday and I was busy getting engaged. Still not sure that choosing those over watching Kershaw / Lincecum was the right move.
23. June 26, Angels at Dodger Stadium, Jered Weaver against Clayton Kershaw
MSTI, June 26:
This is the 12th time in Kershaw’s career he’s put up double-digit strikeout numbers, though it’s the first time he’s done it in back-to-back starts, since he also struck out 11 Tigers last week. It also put him up to 128 K’s on the season, putting him back ahead of Justin Verlander for the most in baseball. That’s impressive, but that’s not what I liked the best about today; it was the fact that he did it without a single walk. Remember when we said that the only thing holding him back from megaultrastardom was harnessing the walks? Yeah, about that: his K/BB rate from 2008-11: 1.92, 2.03, 2.62, 3.66.
Clayton Kershaw, shiny golden god.
25. August 9, Phillies in Los Angeles, Cliff Lee against Ted Lilly
MSTI, August 9:
On the other side of the ball, for all the jokes we have at Ted Lilly‘s expense, the veteran lefty was actually pretty solid against a good Phillies lineup. Lilly allowed just six hits and a walk over eight innings, which ties for his second-longest outing as a Dodger, and he even drilled Shane Victorino in the back for good measure. Of course, it wouldn’t be a Ted Lilly game if he didn’t allow a homer, and that’s how we get back to Lee, who took Lilly out to right field in the 7th inning. That made the score 2-0, though with the way Lee was pitching against the unimposing Dodger lineup, it might as well have been 200-0.
This was also the game where Dee Gordon injured his shoulder attempting to dive around Ryan Howard at first base, nearly causing all of us to pass out in terror.
31. August 2, Dodgers in San Diego, Mat Latos against Hiroki Kuroda
This win merely put the Dodgers to 50-59, and it’s amazing how tuned out we were from worrying about daily results at the time. The second-half improvement didn’t really get going until the latter half of August, and at the time we’d considered this team completely dead in the water, to the point where I was less concerned about recapping a phenomenal Kuroda start than I was about looking ahead to possible waiver moves and September recalls.
32. March 31 (season opener), San Francisco in Los Angeles, Lincecum against Kershaw
MSTI, March 31:
Earlier today, I noted that I had picked Clayton Kershaw to finish 1st in the NL Cy Young Award voting over at Baseball Prospectus. I’m now concerned that I didn’t pick him quite high enough, because Kershaw was absolutely sublime in tonight’s season opener, to the point where San Francisco starter Tim Lincecum allowed just one unearned run over seven innings himself, yet there was still no question about who was the most dominant starter on the mound tonight.
Kershaw scattered just four hits over seven scoreless innings, but even that doesn’t tell the true tale. One of those hits should have been an error on a botched toss from James Loney to Kershaw, and one was a bloop that fell just out of Loney’s reach. But while Kershaw was outstanding all around, it’s not just the few hits he allowed that impressed me most, and it’s not the nine strikeouts he put up. It’s not even how bad he made a handful of Giants look, particularly when he offered his curve. It’s the fact that he walked just one and made it through seven innings with fewer than 100 pitches. In years past, it might have taken him 120 pitches to get that far; in starts that aren’t his first of the season, you’d expect to see him continue into the 8th and 9th.
Need more proof of Kershaw’s progression? This was the 11th time in his career that he pitched at least seven innings without allowing more than one walk. Though he’s been in the bigs since mid-2008, seven of the previous ten came after June 27, 2010 – i.e., in the last half a season. We’ve long known that Kershaw had all the talent in the world, but there’s now a clear pattern of him harnessing the wildness and becoming one of the most dominant pitchers in the bigs. Mark my words, this is the year he gets the respect from the general public he deserves. Oh, and he turned 23 two weeks ago.
35. June 8, Dodgers in Philadelphia, Hiroki Kuroda against Cole Hamels
Kuroda was very good, as I mentioned…
Hiroki Kuroda sailed through the first four innings on a hot night in Philadelphia, escaped some trouble in the 5th, and then was touched for a Ryan Howard solo homer in the 6th. That was the run that put the Dodgers down 1-0 entering the top of the 7th…
…but this game ended up being far more memorable for being one of the low points of a dreadful first half by the offense, as once again, no Dodger other than Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp could contribute even the slightest bit of help:
Down one run, Andre Ethier & Matt Kemp set up the 5-6-7 hitters with two men in scoring position and no outs. To avoid scoring a run in that situation, you basically have to be actively trying to fail. To the surprise of absolutely no one, Juan Uribe, Marcus Thames, and Rod Barajas failed to get the job done. But that’s not news; Ethier and Kemp have been sabotaged by their underperforming teammates all season long. What really got me was the furor on Twitter as this was happening. In rough chronological order…
Tony Jackson (ESPNLA):
horrible AB by Uribe right there. Just horrible.
Boy am I glad we kept Thames
Dylan Hernandez (LA Times):
Thames, who batted 3rd Monday, comes up with men on the corners. “It doesn’t matter where you bat him,” someone said, “the game finds him.
Jayson Stark (ESPN):
The Rod Barajas Fan Club will be delighted to know that once that pop-up came down, he was 2 for 37 this year with men in scoring position.
@jaysonst and that .054 average is 54 points better than Thames, who is now 0 for 11 w/RISP
I have never seen a team come up with more creative ways to not score after getting a runner to third with less than two outs.
Kevin Modesti (LA Daily News):
@dodgerscribe It’s another example of we’ve talked about. Ethier & Kemp get on … Uribe, Thames & Barajas coming up — what do you expect?
That was one of those Dodgers offense moments you sorta knew was coming, but you still feel disgusted anyway watching it happen.
36. July 9, Dodgers in San Diego, Rubby De La Rosa against Aaron Harang
This led to one of my favorite post titles of the season,”Dodgers Win in Most Dodger Way Possible“. This was still a few weeks before the second half surge really got going, and the team was so bad at this point that it was all you could do to laugh at them.
Being no-hit for 8 2/3 innings, nearly wasting six one-hit innings from rookie standout Rubby De La Rosa, and then winning on two miraculous hits from Juan Uribe and Dioner Navarro, two of the worst hitters on the team?
Yeah, that sounds about right.
42. June 19, Houston in L.A., Bud Norris against Hiroki Kuroda
MSTI, June 19:
For 7 1/3 scoreless innings on Sunday, the Dodgers looked likely to set us up for disappointment. Hiroki Kuroda had sailed through the first seven, allowing just five baserunners before Matt Guerrier threw a clean eighth. After a tough turn around the starting rotation, it was a much-needed boost from the veteran. But yet again, there was absolutely no support from the offense, as Bud Norris and Sergio Escalona held the Dodgers to harmless singles by James Loney and Dioner Navarro, and walks by Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. There’s a reason Kuroda has a losing record both for the season and his career, and it’s because of games like this. How many times have we seen a solid starting pitching performance wasted due to an offense that is barely of a Triple-A caliber? Tony Gwynn flied out to center to start the eighth, and with the bottom up the order due up, it seemed just a matter of time before patchwork bullpen (though buoyed by the returns of Kenley Jansen yesterday and Hong-Chih Kuo today) would allow the Astros to score and complete the sweep.
Kuroda didn’t get the win in the boxscore today – Guerrier did – but I think we all know who deserves that W next to his name.
Just barely avoiding a sweep against the lowly Astros. How did we survive the first half of the season again?
Perhaps more pertinent to the current situation, I wonder how this list might look if it were redone after 2012, now that Kuroda is gone and De La Rosa is injured. To be fair, Chad Billingsley does appear twice in the second half of the list, Harang was very good in the De La Rosa game, and Chris Capuano had the single best-pitched game of 2011 as judged by Game Score. (To be even more fair, this is a completely subjective list that’s very easy to tear apart and by definition requires both pitchers to be excellent at the same time, something which the mediocre Dodger offense probably had a big hand in.)
MSTI’s 2011 in Review: Starting Pitchers, Part 3
November 4, 2011 at 9:29 am | Posted in Hiroki Kuroda, John Ely, Ted Lilly | 16 CommentsYou know the offseason has started to get fun when it’s been over a week since I’ve posted a Season in Review piece, thanks to all the hoopla over ownership and the signing of Juan Rivera. Before we completely turn the page to 2012, let’s continue our look back at 2011 with the third and final installment of starting pitchers, featuring two veterans who combined for 65 starts and a youngster who received just one.
Hiroki Kuroda (B+)
3.07 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 7.17 K/9, 2.18 BB/9
Here’s one of my favorite “pitcher wins and losses are stupid” notes yet: Kuroda set career highs in both wins (13) and losses (16) this year, which must of course mean that he had both the best and worst season of his career.
That’s ludicrous, of course, because the 36-year-old Kuroda had nothing but another productive season, breaking the 200 inning mark for the first time, though an uptick in home runs allowed made it slightly less valuable than in 2010. Kuroda got off to an especially good start this season, allowing three earned runs or fewer in five of his first six and seven of his first nine starts, but he didn’t always get the support he deserved, as we noted on June 14:
The failure of the bullpen and the inability of the offense to overcome it really has to make you feel for Hiroki Kuroda, as Steve Dilbeck points out at the LA Times blog. Kuroda was once 5-3, but has now been hung with five consecutive losses to push him down to 5-8. On the surface, it sounds like he’s struggled, but we know better; the Dodgers have scored eight total runs for him in those five games. While he deserves his share of the blame for the first two, games in which he allowed four and five earned runs, he’s allowed a grand total of five earned over his last three starts. All of them go in the books as losses, despite his season xFIP of 3.50.
And again on June 19:
For 7 1/3 scoreless innings on Sunday, the Dodgers looked likely to set us up for disappointment. Hiroki Kuroda had sailed through the first seven, allowing just five baserunners before Matt Guerrier threw a clean eighth. After a tough turn around the starting rotation, it was a much-needed boost from the veteran. But yet again, there was absolutely no support from the offense, as Bud Norris and Sergio Escalona held the Dodgers to harmless singles by James Loney and Dioner Navarro, and walks by Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. There’s a reason Kuroda has a losing record both for the season and his career, and it’s because of games like this.
And yet again on July 28:
If Wednesday night’s loss to Colorado was indeed the final start as a Dodger for Hiroki Kuroda, it came in the most appropriate fashion possible: six innings of one-run ball, twice as many strikeouts (six) as walks (three)… and yet another loss, since the inept Dodger offense couldn’t be bothered to put a run on the board until Rod Barajas‘ solo homer with one out in the ninth. (On a side note, another strike for pitcher W/L records; Kuroda, Blake Hawksworth, and Mike MacDougal all allowed the same damage of one earned run. Kuroda allowed that much over six innings, while Hawksworth did it in one and MacDougal in one and a third. Yet Kuroda is the one with the blemish on his record. Uh, okay.)
That inspired Jon Weisman to pass along this astonishing note:
Since May 22, Kuroda is 1-10 with a 3.38 ERA.
Of course, noting Kuroda’s misfortune was hardly what we’ll remember this season for, because the “will he or won’t he” question of whether he’d accept a trade at the deadline of a lost season swirled for weeks. Kuroda almost certainly would have been the most desirable starter on the market other than perhaps Ubaldo Jimenez, and could have brought the Dodgers a nice return. It’s amazing to think what might have been if Kuroda had accepted a deal to Boston, wouldn’t it? Perhaps the Red Sox might have avoided a full collapse, and Theo Epstein and Terry Francona might still be there.
Part of the speculation was fueled by Kuroda himself, since for most of July he refused to come right out and say that he would or would not accept a trade. Finally, one day before the trading deadline, he announced that he would be exercising his right to reject a trade and stay in Los Angeles. Though I respected his decision, I had to admit that I was disappointed at the time:
I look at it from more of a “wanting my team to win” point of view, and from that standpoint, it’s hard not to think that Kuroda has hurt the chances to do that, even if only in a small way. A few weeks ago, I noted that I would be more than okay with keeping Kuroda to soak up some innings over the last few months if the deal was just going to be a salary dump, with little in the way of talent coming back. Yet as dominoes have begun to fall over the last few days, we’ve seen that this particular trade season is shaping up as a clear seller’s market. Look at what Toronto was able to do in exchange for some relievers and eating a bad contract. Look how much the Orioles got for 36-year-old Koji Uehara, or the Mets for two months of Carlos Beltran, or the reported return for Ubaldo Jimenez if that goes through. With Detroit, St. Louis, and Cleveland (maybe) all having picked up starters, that left the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rangers to fight over Kuroda, the clear top remaining starter. That’s an enviable position to be in.
Instead, we have 8-10 more starts of Kuroda to look forward to, and that might be it if he decides to go back to Japan after the season. I know some will be happy with that, saying that it proves he’s “true blue” or makes the club better for the last two months, but I don’t really see what that accomplishes. At the end of the season, his current 6-13 record will be something like 8-17, and the team will still be several games under .500 and double-digit games out of a playoff spot. Having Kuroda around, or not, was not going to change the fortunes of the 2011 club. Trading him might have helped future versions of the club, teams he’ll have been long retired from, and while I’m glad he enjoys being a Dodger enough to invoke his no-trade clause, he could have also gone on a two-month road trip somewhere and re-signed in Los Angeles the day after the season ended, if he chose. His gain, short-term, is probably our loss, long-term, and it’ll be a bit hard for me to watch his next start without that thought in the back of my mind.
That came to fruition the very next day, when the dust had settled from the unexpected and unpopular Trayvon Robinson / Tim Federowicz deal:
Worse, there’s also the feeling that this goes back to Hiroki Kuroda‘s refusal to accept a trade. Boston writers Gordon Edes and Sean McAdam each reported that Federowicz and Juan Rodriguez were initially discussed in negotiations for Kuroda, an assertion backed up by Ned Colletti’s comments that Federowicz was someone he’d been eyeing for some time. (McAdam says that a third prospect likely would have been included, though he doesn’t state if that was Stephen Fife or not.) Kuroda was clearly higher on Boston’s starting pitching shopping list than Erik Bedard, so if he agrees to the deal, the Dodgers send two months of Kuroda to Boston for a package nearly identical to the one that ended up coming for Robinson. That’s a deal that I think most of us would have been pretty satisfied with – I know I’d have been – and Robinson would have remained in the system. Remember when I said I was disappointed in Kuroda’s choice? Yeah, that paid off a lot quicker than I thought it would.
I know the arguments on the other side of that, namely that Kuroda had the right to choose to stay and that he should be commended for his loyalty, or that Robinson wasn’t stellar in his short MLB debut in Seattle (which again, is totally beside the point) and I understand that. But as we saw, even though Kuroda pitched well down the stretch (slightly hampered by a neck injury) and the Dodgers played well, there was never any chance they were going to get back in the race, so that asset is now lost.
Still, that’s in the past, and for the third time in a year, we’re playing the “will he or won’t he” game with Kuroda, this time about if he’ll return to America for 2012. There’s no one who seriously thinks he’ll come back to MLB with anyone other than the Dodgers, and right now I put it at 70/30 odds that he will return for another season.
I hope he does. Kuroda’s been a solid performer and by all indications a good teammate, and the Dodgers are in the unique position of being (probably) the only team able to buy a valuable asset for one year when pitchers of similar value would require three or four.
Ted Lilly (C-)
3.97 ERA, 4.21 FIP, 7.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9
Of the two main starters on this page, it’s a little surprising that it was Hiroki Kuroda who dealt with neck pain rather than Lilly, considering that the veteran lefty was the one who was constantly whipping his head around to see balls leaving the yard – hence the card picture, which come on, I had to use.
To be fair, Lilly improved greatly as the season went on, but we’ll get to that in a second. When he initially signed his 3/$33m deal last October, my reaction was less than positive:
So sure, I’m happy to see him back in 2011, but we can’t be short-sighted about this. Remember, Lilly just finished a 4-year, $40m contract, which is an average annual value of $10m/year. Somehow, despite being 4 years older, less than a year past shoulder surgery, and on the decline, the Dodgers saw fit to give him a deal which increases that value?
I’m not arguing that he wouldn’t have found a contract like that on the market, because he would have. I would have just preferred it be some other team to make a foolish investment. Spending money does not equal spending wisely, because while Lilly’s a good pitcher, he’s hardly a difference-maker, yet he’s being paid like one. Though I’m glad he’s back for 2011, I really think we’re going to regret this deal in 2012 and 2013 – which is basically exactly what I said about Blake’s deal after 2008.
The fact that it started with a $7.5m outlay this year and increases to $12m and $13.5m in 2012 and 2013, incredibly high numbers for a late-30s mid-rotation pitcher, doesn’t help to ease our uncertainty. The discomfort increased as Lilly failed to make it through five innings in either of his first two starts, and his ERA was still north of 5 even headed into his first start of August.
The funny thing is, as I look back through the year of posts, Lilly was just sort of “there”. He was rarely bad enough to get killed, nor was he effective enough that he really stood out. Scrolling through the database, I see more than a few times where I note a solid Lilly outing that avoided a “what’s wrong with Ted Lilly” post after several bad starts. Despite the seemingly outrageous homer rate, when I looked at him in June, that wasn’t the largest concern:
So what’s going on? Well, it appears to be two issues. First, despite the fact that I mentioned his K/BB hasn’t changed, he’s definitely missing fewer bats. He’s striking out more than a man less per nine innings, and his swinging strike percentage has sunk from 9.5% in 2009 to 8.9% in 2010 to 7.5% this year – and that last number is sure to fall further when tonight’s game is factored in. He’s walking fewer than he ever has as well, so that’s how the K/BB stays lower.
If you’re striking out fewer, you’re relying more on your defense, and that’s where we run into our second problem. According to Baseball Prospectus‘ “Defensive Efficiency”, the Dodgers currently rank 28th in MLB as far as turning balls into outs. So you’re seeing exactly what you’d expect to see when you have a pitcher who isn’t striking people out, and isn’t getting support from his defense. The problem is that I’m not sure how we see either of those items changing any time soon, particularly since Lilly is still signed up for his age-36 and age-37 seasons the next two years.
In July, you can see just how we felt about him during our midseason review:
Ted Lilly (D) (6-9, 4.79 ERA, 4.59 FIP)
Lilly hasn’t been awful (back, back, it’s gone!), but nor has he been (throw to second, and the runner is in!) in any way worthy of the $33m deal he received in the offseason. He’s (that ball is far, it is out of here!) striking out fewer than ever, and more (he’s going, and he swipes second without a throw) batted balls in front of a defense that isn’t great at converting them into outs isn’t (that ball is crushed into the second tier!) a good mix. Oh, and he’s 35 and has complained (Navarro’s throw to second, not in time, another steal!) of arm soreness already. Loving that three-year deal more than ever.
Not exactly the sort of start you’re looking to see in the first year of a multiyear deal, particularly from a player Lilly’s age, and at the time, there was little hope for improvement. Yet somehow, he did, perhaps based on this chat with Clayton Kershaw that provided really the only Lilly-based entertainment all season.
No, really: through the first 22 starts of Lilly’s season, the returns were poor, allowing 23 homers, a .791 OPS, and a 5.02 ERA. But beginning with a six inning, one run performance in San Diego on August 3, Lilly was practically a new pitcher; in his final 11 starts, he allowed just five homers, a .543 OPS, and a 2.09 ERA. We noted this on August 15:
Ted Lilly has taken a lot of criticism this year, and for good reason: he gives up homers every five seconds, he can’t hold runners on, he’s now 7-13 on the year, and, oh yeah, he’s still owed about $28m through 2013, when he’ll be 37. He’s given up fourteen dingers over his last ten starts - fourteen!– and only once in that time has he made it through a game longball-free.
Still, after allowing just one run over seven innings tonight (yes, on a blast to Ryan Braun), it’s worth noting that Lilly’s actually been very good lately, since this is the fourth start in a row in which he’s allowed two runs or less. That’s a total of just six earned runs over 26 innings, which is excellent. The catch, of course, is that Lilly has come down with the loss in each of his last three games, since the Dodgers have scored – wait for it – one run in that span. One!
Of course, one area he never improved at was holding runners on, where he allowed 35 steals against just two caught stealing, among the worst rates in baseball.
Despite the roundabout way in which he got there, Lilly had a basically average Ted Lilly season, despite another year of declining strikeout rates. His 4.21 FIP and 3.72 SIERA largely fall into line with what he’s been doing for years.
John Ely (inc.)
6.23 ERA, 5.67 FIP, 9.3 K/9, 5.2 BB/9
Geez, how long ago does “Ely-mania” seem right now?
Ely made only one start for the Dodgers this season, and even that was way back in April. That’s mostly due to the season-long health of the top four in the Dodger rotation, but also because Ely followed up a 6.22 AAA in 2010 with a 5.99 mark in 2011. The usual “yes, but Albuquerque” caveats apply, which, fine, but that’s still pretty ugly. (His home FIP of 4.52 and road FIP of 4.71 are at least a bit less stomach-turning.) Despite being called up in September as depth, he spent most of his time watching, logging just four innings over three unimportant games.
All of which is not to say that Ely has no place with the Dodgers. Every team needs a decent-ish 7th or 8th starter for a spot start here and there. I’d just recommend he get mighty comfortable in New Mexico.
******
Next! Javy Guerra, Proven Closer™! Scott Elbert‘s enormous comeback! And far too many words spilled on Vicente Padilla! It’s relievers, part 1!
Dodgers Say Goodbye to 2011 on Greatest Night in Baseball History
September 28, 2011 at 9:27 pm | Posted in Matt Kemp, Ted Lilly | 62 Comments
I was going to put up a post after this game that served as a quick season recap before we get into offseason business, but after everything that’s happened tonight, that’s going to have to wait until tomorrow. Who, myself included, could honestly focus on the relatively meaningless Dodger game tonight, even though it was the final one of the year?
Sure, I had it up on MLB.tv on my computer, and I cheered when Matt Kemp hit his 39th homer of the year. But I also had the Red Sox / Orioles game sharing half the screen, with Phillies / Braves & Yankees / Rays (once the Yankee bullpen started to fall apart) sharing time on my television. As if having four must-win games with vital playoff implications wasn’t enough, three of them were nailbiters, with two going into extra innings. I absolutely cannot remember a night of baseball more entertaining than this, to the point where the “OH MY GOD” I posted on Twitter when Dan Johnson completed the Tampa comeback with a 2-2, two out dinger in the 9th was matched by a similar verbal exclamation in my living room, even though it was a game I had absolutely no vested interest in.
Honestly, part of this has to be the times we live in. Simply watching 3-4 amazing games on multiple devices simultaneously (plus the Dodger game) wasn’t enough, because the magic of Twitter meant that I was watching them with about 150 of my closest friends. As I joked at the time that Johnson’s ball hit the foul pole, I wish I could have printed out the last 200 or so tweets and framed them.
And then it got even better. The Braves choked away their game in the 13th inning in Philly. About 15 minutes later, Jonathan Papelbon gave up the tying and winning runs in Baltimore. Less than five minutes after that, Evan Longoria was walking off in Tampa. Is that even all accurate? Who can tell – it all happened so fast, and so hilariously, because in the span of about 20 minutes we witnessed the two worst collapses in baseball history.
I loved every minute of it. Seriously. I can’t remember the last time watching baseball was so absolutely joyful, and I’m not sure we’ll ever see anything like it again.
And the Dodgers? Yeah, that happened. Ted Lilly threw seven solid shutout innings, and five Dodgers had two hits, including James Loney‘s 12th homer of the year. Really, the game was in no way as close as the 7-5 final would indicate, because it was 7-0 until Ramon Troncoso decided it was time to allow a grand slam and then a solo homer in the ninth. Oh, and we saw another kind of history: when Eugenio Velez grounded out weakly to second, it was his 46th consecutive hitless at-bat, a new major league record. So, uh, congrats there, Eugenio.
But let’s not pretend any of that is more important than this, Rod Barajas holding Gordon in some sort of bizarre baby cradle before the game. For a guy who writes hundreds (or more) words about the Dodgers every day, I am, for once, speechless:
Back tomorrow with the farewell to 2011 post. For now, I’m breathless from an absolutely outstanding night of baseball.
Dodgers Overcome Strasburg, Rain to Beat Nationals 7-3
September 6, 2011 at 8:22 pm | Posted in Ted Lilly | 18 Comments
Let’s get the Stephen Strasburg business out of the way first; in his long-awaited return from Tommy John surgery, the young righty was masterful, needing just 56 pitches to get through five scoreless innings, allowing two hits. The 99 MPH (-ish, because TV guns can never be trusted) two-seamer with which he made Aaron Miles look foolish in the second inning was a thing of beauty, and it never gets old after one million viewings:
Strasburg was awesome, and seeing him seemingly on his way back to full strength after surgery was a joy. Yet contrary to what Eric Collins & Steve Lyons on KCAL would have you believe, of course, there was a whole lot more to this game than whether Strasburg was going to “come away with a win”, especially considering that the Dodgers ended up winning 7-3.
To be fair, Strasburg’s strict pitch count played a huge part in the victory, because after seeing 15 of 17 mowed down by Strasburg, the Dodgers battered five Washington relievers for eleven hits in the final four innings, including five in the sixth inning alone to plate three. Dee Gordon bounced back from an 0-5 night with three hits, including a leadoff double that just about no one else in the league could have extended past a single, Rod Barajas broke a 3-3 tie with a two-run double in the eighth, and Andre Ethier drive in four with a single in the sixth and a double in the ninth. I don’t think it’s going out too much on a limb that facing a group of nondescript relievers, including two making their big league debuts, was slightly easier than flailing against the dominant Strasburg.
For all the talk about Strasburg, it was Dodger pitching which impressed, setting a season high with 17 strikeouts, the most they’ve had since striking out that many Rockies on the last day of 2009. Ted Lilly led with nine, generally pitching well other than a second inning in which he allowed back-to-back doubles and committed a throwing error.
Oh, and Eugenio Velez got to hit again. He grounded out weakly to second base. Of course he did.
Old, Lefty Dodger Starter Outdueled by Previous Old, Lefty Dodger Starter
August 15, 2011 at 7:48 pm | Posted in Ted Lilly | 43 Comments
Ted Lilly has taken a lot of criticism this year, and for good reason: he gives up homers every five seconds, he can’t hold runners on, he’s now 7-13 on the year, and, oh yeah, he’s still owed about $28m through 2013, when he’ll be 37. He’s given up fourteen dingers over his last ten starts - fourteen! – and only once in that time has he made it through a game longball-free.
Still, after allowing just one run over seven innings tonight (yes, on a blast to Ryan Braun), it’s worth noting that Lilly’s actually been very good lately, since this is the fourth start in a row in which he’s allowed two runs or less. That’s a total of just six earned runs over 26 innings, which is excellent. The catch, of course, is that Lilly has come down with the loss in each of his last three games, since the Dodgers have scored – wait for it – one run in that span. One!
Tonight’s tragedy was perpetrated by former Dodger starter Randy Wolf, who allowed eleven runners over eight innings (five walks will do that for you), yet somehow not only kept the Dodgers off the board, but only allowed one runner to even get to third. Having the Dodgers hit into double plays (or worse, more on that in a second) in four of the first five innings tends to be a pretty effective way to keep the zeroes coming. Most prominent among the missed opportunities would be the third inning, in which Dioner Navarro led off with a double ahead of a Justin Sellers single. Rather than having two on with no outs, Navarro was thrown out at the plate, because any time you can try to have a slow-footed backup catcher advance an extra base, you have to take that opportunity. (Just kidding, mostly, since Lilly was up next. But still.)
Fittingly, the game ended on a Juan Rivera double play, though by that time both Scott Elbert and Mike MacDougal had allowed solo homers to push the lead to 3-0. The lesson, as always: no matter how well Lilly pitches, he will always give up at least one dinger, and the Dodger offense just isn’t good enough to overcome consistently hitting into double plays.
Oh, and James Loney hit into a triple play, which: bahahaha.
Clayton Kershaw & Ted Lilly Discuss the Phillies Lineup
August 9, 2011 at 8:43 am | Posted in Clayton Kershaw, Ted Lilly | 24 CommentsThe official Dodger Twitter feed brings us this picture of Clayton Kershaw and Ted Lilly going over scouting reports, with the caption, “Ted Lilly, who gets the start tonight on Duke Snider Night, goes over the Phils w/ Clayton Kershaw”.
Somehow, I imagine the conversation went a little differently.
Kershaw: First, they have Jimmy Rollins. He’s not what he once was, but still dangerous, so be careful with him.
Lilly: /allows homer
Kershaw: Shane Victorino is next, if he’s not suspended. He’s kind of an asshole. It’d be best to get him out so there’s not men on base for Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Hunter Pence, but if you wanted to hit him in the face, I don’t think any of us would have a problem with it.
Lilly: /attempts to bean Victorino, allows homer
Kershaw: The meat of the Phillies lineup – Utley, Howard, and Pence – is among the most dangerous trios in the game. You can’t let them beat you. Fortunately, Utley and Howard are both lefties, so that should help out a couple of southpaws like us, right?
Lilly: /inexplicably strikes out both Howard and Utley, allows line drive single to Pence.
Kershaw: Pence hasn’t been running as often this…
Lilly: /Pence steals second
Kershaw: year as he has in years past…
Lilly: /Pence steals third
Kershaw: but you’ll still want to keep an eye on him.
Lilly: /Pence steals home.
Kershaw: Uh, okay. Well, at least now you have the dessicated corpse of Raul Ibanez, who is hitting just .240/.287/.419 overall, and even worse (.215 BA, .241 OBP) against lefties. No problem right?
Lilly: /induces Ibanez to hit a soft tapper back to the mound, which Lilly promptly launches into the stands behind first base.
Kershaw: Fantastic. This is a problem, because Carlos Ruiz is up, and he always kills the Dodg-
Lilly: /allows two-run homer
Kershaw: Well done. With Placido Polanco injured, they’ve been hitting something called a “Michael Martinez” 8th, can you at least handle that?
Lilly: /strikes out Martinez
Kershaw: Tough inning, Ted.
Lilly: What? I struck out the side. We must be losing because I don’t get enough run support.
2011 Midseason Grades: Pitching and Management
July 12, 2011 at 9:29 am | Posted in Blake Hawksworth, Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Davey Lopes, Don Mattingly, Hiroki Kuroda, Hong-Chih Kuo, Javy Guerra, John Ely, Jon Garland, Jonathan Broxton, Josh Lindblom, Kenley Jansen, Matt Guerrier, Mike MacDougal, Ned Colletti, Ramon Troncoso, Rubby de la Rosa, Scott Elbert, Ted Lilly, Vicente Padilla | 37 Comments
Thanks for all the feedback on yesterday’s hitting grades, and today we move on to pitching and management. Remember, the letter grades are just for fun, without a whole lot of thought or science behind them.
Starting Pitchers
Clayton Kershaw (A+) (9-4, 3.03 ERA, 2.45 FIP)
Is A+ even high enough? I’m not sure it is, though we certainly expected great things from him. Think about this: his HR/9 rate and H/9 rate are unchanged from last year, but he’s managed to do that while lowering his walk rate (again!) and increasing his strikeout rate. He’s leading the league in whiffs, and he has two shutouts among his three complete games. He’s 23. He’s lefty. He’s an All-Star.
Don’t let anyone tell you that he’s progressing towards being an ace, or one day he could be one of the best. Clayton Kershaw is, right now, one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball. The scary part? He could still get better.
Chad Billingsley (B) (8-7, 3.87 ERA, 3.41 FIP)
Over at Baseball Prospectus this morning, Geoff Young of DuckSnorts offers the opinion that Billingsley “should be a star, but isn’t”. And that’s true. 26-year-old Billingsley is walking more and striking out less than 23-year-old Billingsley did in 2008. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, because he’s still a very valuable asset and the extension he signed over the winter was welcomed, but he’s also not going to be a Kershaw-level star like we’d once hoped he would be. Again, that’s not to get on Billingsley, it’s just seemingly who he’s going to be – a durable #2 or 3 type who will be consistently inconsistent (3 starts this year of at least 8 IP and 1 ER or less, 3 starts allowing 5 ER or more). That’s not a star, but it is a quality pitcher we should be happy to have.
Hiroki Kuroda (B) (6-10, 3.06 ERA, 3.73 FIP)
Only five pitchers have received less run support than Kuroda (shockingly, no other Dodger appears on the top 40 of that list), so let’s not pretend the poor win/loss record means absolutely anything at all. Conversely, the ERA is a little misleading as well, since he’s striking out fewer and walking more than he did in either 2009 or 2010, facts which are reflected in the higher FIP. Still, he’s been a solid member of this rotation… and probably the only Dodger with any real trade value at the deadline. I’ll be sorry to see him go, if he does.
Ted Lilly (D) (6-9, 4.79 ERA, 4.59 FIP)
Lilly hasn’t been awful (back, back, it’s gone!), but nor has he been (throw to second, and the runner is in!) in any way worthy of the $33m deal he received in the offseason. He’s (that ball is far, it is out of here!) striking out fewer than ever, and more (he’s going, and he swipes second without a throw) batted balls in front of a defense that isn’t great at converting them into outs isn’t (that ball is crushed into the second tier!) a good mix. Oh, and he’s 35 and has complained (Navarro’s throw to second, not in time, another steal!) of arm soreness already. Loving that three-year deal more than ever.
Rubby De La Rosa (A) (3-4, 3.74 ERA, 3.40 FIP)
Probably the most impressive of any of the rookies pushed ahead of their schedule this year, de la Rosa has shown immense talent while being forced to learn on-the-job. While his first few starts were dicey – good lord, the walks, and that one game that he nearly got bounced in the first inning was a heart-stopper – RDLR has shown marked improvement, even flirting with no-hitters in each of his last two outings. The talent is unquestioned, but the real concern now is limited his innings, since he’s quickly coming up on matching his previous high with more than two months remaining in the season. But if he’s limited and if someone like Kuroda is dealt… how do you finish out the season? John Ely? Dana Eveland? Yikes.
Jon Garland (D-) (1-5, 4.33 ERA, 4.59 FIP)
Hey, remember when Garland was signed largely because he’d never been on the disabled list before? If you do, then you probably also remember him saying he couldn’t get multi-year deals because other teams didn’t like the looks of his medical reports. Garland gets a lousy grade not because of his performance (ignore the 1-5, a 4.59 FIP is in line with his usual season), but because he sells his durability as a skill. Clearly, that’s one item he forgot to pack for his second (and likely final) tour with the Dodgers. At least that large 2012 option won’t kick in.
John Ely (inc.) (0-1, 6.23 ERA, 5.61 FIP)
Remember Ely-mania last year? Seems so far away, doesn’t it?
Relief pitchers
Jonathan Broxton (MRI) (1-2, 7 saves, 5.68 ERA, 5.56 FIP)
I have absolutely no idea how to grade Jonathan Broxton. Was he good this year? No, of course he wasn’t, and for many people that justifies their opinion that at around midseason 2010, he somehow lost his heart / mind / balls / toes / earlobes / whatever. The fact that he somehow managed to even close out seven games earlier this year is somewhat misleading, because he rarely did so smoothly; conversely, it’s difficult to blame him entirely for the big blown save in Florida because the Dodgers would have won if Jamey Carroll had merely fielded a simple ground ball.
I’d say the answer lies in the fact that he’s been on the disabled list for over two months due to a right elbow injury, with no estimated return date. We never saw the healthy Broxton this year, just as I felt we never saw a healthy Broxton in the second half of last year. The lesson, as always? Joe Torre cannot be trusted with relievers. You hate to say it about a guy who is only 27, but Torre may just have ruined Broxton’s career. Thanks for stopping by, Joe!
Hong-Chih Kuo (-) (0-0, 8.71 ERA, 4.12 FIP)
Take everything I said about Broxton above and multiply it by 100 for Kuo, because the anxiety issue he’s been fighting for years makes it impossible to really judge his on-field performance. Since returning, he’s at least managed to limit the walks (6/2 K/BB in 5.2 IP), though the results (five runs, four earned) haven’t all been there yet. The fact that he even returned as quickly as he did should count as a win.
Kenley Jansen (B+) (1-1, 4.40 ERA, 3.15 FIP)
I bet a lot of people will be surprised by this grade for Jansen. “But his ERA is 4.40, rabble rabble rabble!”, they’ll yell. That’s true, it is. That number is also heavily inflated by two poor outings – allowing 5 earned runs to Atlanta on April 19 in a game that the Dodgers were already losing in, and allowing 3 earned runs on May 23 in Houston, a game which preceded his stint on the DL with right shoulder inflammation by less than a week. Since returning from injury on June 18, he’s been nearly untouchable, striking out 13 while allowing just two singles in 9.2 innings. While the walks remain a problem, he’s actually striking out more per nine than he did in 2010, and you might remember that even last year’s rate was on the verge of being historic. The question for me is, why is he stuck in middle relief and garbage time rather than in higher leverage situations?
Matt Guerrier (C-) (3-3, 3.10 ERA, 4.44 FIP)
Boy, who would have thought that handing out an expensive multi-year deal to a non-elite middle reliever wouldn’t have worked out well? Besides everyone, that is. Guerrier actually hasn’t been that bad, but that’s sort of the point: players who get $12m over three years should be able to do better than “hasn’t been that bad”. Though he’s striking out slightly more than he did as a Twin, he’s allowing both more walks and hits than he did in either of the last two years, despite moving to the easier league. He’ll be 33 in less than a month. It’s not a good trend.
Mike MacDougal (C+) (0-1, 1.67 ERA, 3.74 FIP)
2003 All-Star MacDougal has done an excellent job of reviving his career after several years bouncing between the bigs and AAA. MacDougal, who made the 2003 All-Star team as a member of the Royals, has just a 1.74 ERA, emerging as a leader of the injury-plagued Dodger bullpen. The former All-Star has allowed only six earned runs to score, putting him in contention for 9th inning responsibilities. All-Star.
(I can’t do it. MacDougal has allowed approximately 982 of the 48 inherited runners he’s received* to score. For nearly the entire season, he’d walked as many as he’d struck out, before finally giving himself some distance in recent days. He’s not a good pitcher, but like Aaron Miles, we expected nothing, so the small contributions he’s made get him some minor credit. *note: numbers may be fabricated.)
Number of Ortizii: 0 (A++++)
Say what you will about this club, at least they’re not employing anyone named Ortiz who was last useful 6-8 years ago, much less multiple players like that.
Javy Guerra (B+) (1-0, 4 saves, 2.33 ERA, 4.01 FIP)
Guerra, like MacDougal all those years ago, is a perfect example of why we shouldn’t overrate saves. For a guy who walked 6.8/9 in the minors last year and was forced to the bigs simply because of injuries, he’s been fine. He’s keeping the ball in the yard, he’s cut down on the control issues, and he’s even managed to steal a few saves while serving as the last-ditch closer. As far as debuts go, his has been a successful one. Let’s just not go overboard in anointing him as the man in the 9th inning, because he hasn’t been that good – 13 K in 19.1 IP doesn’t thrill me – and in each of his last two saves, he loaded the bases before getting out of the jam. That’s not the kind of tightrope you can walk for very long.
Blake Hawksworth (B) (2-2, 3.00 WHIP, 4.12 FIP)
“Isn’t Ryan Theriot“, and that alone gets him a boost. Actually, I joke, but it’s sort of true: when healthy, Hawksworth has been a perfectly acceptable and average reliever, doing a decent job of keeping runners off the bases (WHIP of 1.000), and striking out more than double as he’s walked. Considering that Theriot is doing his usual “I’m not a very good baseball player, but I am short and white, and that counts for something, right?” routine in St. Louis, even just getting that moderate level of contribution in exchange is a big win.
Scott Elbert (B-) (0-1, 5.25 ERA, 2.54 FIP)
I know there’s been a lot of turnover in the bullpen this year, but Elbert is one of those guys where I constantly have to check if he’s still on the team or down in ABQ. I suppose that’s partically because he’s pitched just twice in the last two weeks, and partially because he’s rarely in for more than 2-3 batters at a time. As for his performance, he’s a bit of an oddity in that you’d expect a power lefty to be hell on lefty hitters, but he’s actually rocking a reverse split: lefties (.701 OPS) are actually doing more damage than righties (.561 OPS) against him. Overall, I guess you can say he’s been “acceptable”, in that he’s finally gained a foothold in the majors, but hasn’t exactly made us think he’s going to be a difference maker.
Then again, considering his mysterious disappearance at this time last year, even that is a massive step forward.
Ramon Troncoso (D) (0-0, 6.23 ERA, 4.92 FIP)
I know it’s popular to blame Torre for Troncoso’s downturn as well, and maybe that’s part of it, but I do remember writing a post last year that outlined how he had larger issues than overuse. Whatever it is, he’s barely a major league quality pitcher right now… which probably explains why he’s not in the major leagues. That’s what’ll happen when you aren’t striking anyone out and giving up an absurd amount of hits, though I’ll allow that since he was never a strikeout guy, pitching in front of a defense that does no favors probably doesn’t help.
Ronald Belisario (MIA)
Ha, no. There’s about as good of a chance that he pitches for the Dodgers again as there is that you’ll see Orel Hershiser or Don Drysdale out there.
Josh Lindblom (B+) (0-0, 1.69 ERA, 3.43 FIP)
Nearly two years after we first thought we might see him, Lindblom finally got the call this year, and so far, so good. It’s hard to make judgements based on just eight games, but he’s yet to allow more than one earned run in an appearance, and for now, that’s good enough.
Lance Cormier (dFa) (0-1, 9.88 ERA, 6.84 FIP)
I’m still convinced the only reason Cormier wasn’t DFA’d a week or two earlier than he eventually was (on May 24, when Rubby De La Rosa came up) is because he had a charity event for tornado victims set up at the stadium on May 15, and it would have been poor form to cut a guy just before or after that. I also like that we can say “nah, he wasn’t as bad as his ERA, look at his FIP” and while that’s true, even his FIP says he was awful.
Vicente Padilla (inc.) (0-0, 4.15 ERA, 2.61 FIP)
I sure do feel like we’ve talked about Padilla a lot this year for a guy who piched just 8.2 innings. First he was signed to a somewhat confusing 6th starter/longman/Broxton insurance role, in a move for depth I actually really liked. Then he required surgery for a forearm injury in the spring, preventing him from taking Garland’s rotation spot to start the year. He returned exceptionally quickly from that, taking over for the injured Broxton to nab three saves of varying quality in late April and early May, leading many to proclaim him the next big thing… until he returned to the DL with a recurrence of the arm injury. But the fun doesn’t stop there, because he was supposedly hours away from being activated in June before a neck injury flared up, leading to more surgery and probably the end of his season. Got all that? Phew.
Management
Don Mattingly (B+)
It may sound odd to praise a rookie manager when we weren’t fans of his hiring in the first place and when the club he’s leading is on pace for its worst finish in decades, but I don’t see how you pin much of this mess on Mattingly. He’s proven himself to be far more than a Joe Torre clone, in particular showing a nice willingness to be creative with his bullpen. It hasn’t been perfect, as some of his Navarro-related pinch-hitting escapades still burn, and he likes bunting more than I’d prefer, but he was handed a subpar roster that had its infield and bullpen totally destroyed by injuries, all as fans stayed away thanks to the off-field mess. It would be an impossible situation for any manager, and though the final record won’t be good, Mattingly has been a pleasant surprise, managing to keep the team playing hard through it all. Let’s just hope he doesn’t end up shouldering more of the blame than is needed when all is said and done.
Davey Mutha-F’ing-Lopes (A+^100)
I don’t usually grade the base coaches. Matt Kemp doesn’t usually lead the league in WAR. There you go.
Ned Colletti (F+)
Let’s quickly review all of the contracts handed out last winter by Colletti that were for at least $1m, shall we? Uribe, massive bust. Lilly, missing fewer bats than ever. Guerrier, adequate but overpaid and having one of the lesser years of his career. Garland and Padilla, both injured multiple times and likely out for the year. Barajas, crappier than usual and hurt. Thames, ineffective and injured. Navarro, hitting .183. To be fair, Kuroda has been very good, but it’s hard to say that without caveating that he clearly took a huge paycut to stay in LA.
There’s been a few positives – signing Billingsley was great, the no-risk NRI of Miles worked out, and trading Ryan Theriot for Hawksworth was a good move if you try to forget that it was necessitated by acquiring Theriot in the first place – and you want to be sensitive to the fact that the ownership mess has really put him in a bad position. But overall? Not good, Ned. Not good.
******
Tomorrow, the final review of the series: me.
Mets Hit, Dodgers Don’t, and That’s All You Need to Know
July 5, 2011 at 10:09 pm | Posted in Justin Miller, Ted Lilly | 34 Comments
Well, you can’t say the Dodger offense didn’t at least have their chances:
2nd inning: Matt Kemp on second, no outs.
3rd inning: Ted Lilly on third, Tony Gwynn on second, one out.
4th inning: Bases loaded with AJ Ellis, Juan Uribe, & Trent Oeltjen, two outs.
5th inning: Kemp on second, Aaron Miles on third, no outs.
7th inning: Jamey Carroll on third, two outs.
I don’t need to tell you how many of those situations turned into runs, right? The list above doesn’t even include Kemp getting thrown out by a country mile at home in the 4th inning on a Uribe double, though it was clear that third base coach Tim Wallach wasn’t exactly ordering him to stop, either.
Okay, now let’s try it on the pitching side, courtesy of Ted Lilly and Blake Hawksworth:
5th inning: Carlos Beltran homers, scoring Angel Pagan.
6th inning: Jason Bay homers.
8th inning: Jason Bay homers, scoring Beltran and Ronny Paulino.
Lilly giving up dingers while the offense completely and utterly fails? It’s almost like we’ve played that game before. (To be fair to Lilly, he was effective otherwise, and allowing three runs over six innings is a marked improvement from his previous few outings.)
How bad have things gotten? Miles – you know, the same guy who I once referred to as one of the worst players in history, the guy who I like to point out has a totally empty .300 batting average which will surely regress as soon as his unreasonably high BABIP normalizes – was hit by a Mike Pelfrey pitch in the bottom of the 5th inning, eventually leaving the game in favor of Jamey Carroll. When it became clear that Miles may be injured, I actually thought, “uh oh”. Back before the universe went upside-down, you used to pray for guys like Miles to get injured just to get them off the active roster. (Not really, but you know what I mean.) Now? Miles has the 4th highest wOBA of any active Dodger, min. 50 PA. Yes, he’s having a nice season, but trust me, that says a whole hell of a lot more about the team than it does about him.
With the loss, the Dodgers fall to 37-50. I’d say that “they stay 11 games out of first with San Francisco’s loss tonight,” but since the Giants lost to the Padres, the more relevant number is that they now fall three full games behind San Diego for last place. Only three teams in baseball have more losses than the Dodgers: Kansas City (51), the Chicago Cubs (52), and Houston (58), and they’re one game behind the pace set by the 99-loss 1992 club, who were 38-49 through 87 games.
Other than the usual heroics of Kemp and the once-every-five-days fun from Clayton Kershaw, it’s getting harder and harder to see bright sides around here.
(Also: this is a couple of days old, but since I didn’t see it mentioned elsewhere: the Dodgers signed Justin Miller and Roy Corcoran to minor league deals recently. Miller, you may remember, was confusingly DFA’d last season despite quality performance.)
Thoughts From the Road
July 3, 2011 at 6:20 am | Posted in Dee Gordon, Jon Garland, Rafael Furcal, Ted Lilly | 20 CommentsThoughts, both baseball and otherwise, while sitting in the backseat of an SUV on a five hour ride across Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois…
So long, Dee Gordon. The Dodgers haven’t made it official yet, but we all know that Gordon is getting sent down later today to make room for Rafael Furcal, and that’s fine by me. Gordon has been basically exactly what we figured he’d be – overmatched offensively, inconsistent defensively, and occasionally completely breathtaking on both sides of the ball. For a player who was never supposed to be up this early, he showed the talent was real, even if he has much to work on. I look at his first taste as a success, and hopefully he can take that back to the minors with a better idea of what it takes to be a big league ballplayer.
As for Furcal, he’s back sooner than I thought he would be, and that’s a great thing because it gives him nearly a month before the trading deadline. I know, I know: he’s so fragile that it’s hard to think another team could count on him. Still, the shortstop market is so thin that whatever team is unwilling or unable to win the Jose Reyes sweepstakes could show some interest if he’s able to produce over the next few weeks. Possible teams? Reds, Giants, Brewers, Rays, Yankees?
There are some unfortunate billboards in this part of the country. In addition to the usual and expected signs from megachurches warning me of my impending arrival in hell, there’s apparently a chain of RV stores owned by a “Tom Raper”. His phone number, no joke, is 1-800-RAPER. Seriously. I’m trying to imagine his low-budget local tv commercials. The possibilities are endless.
Jon Garland is probably out for the year, and Ted Lilly has a sore elbow. Both items via Tony Jackson; while it’s no surprise about Garland, it does serve to remind us about his offseason comment that other teams were scared off by his medical reports. At least his $8m (I think) 2012 option is out the window, though. As for Lilly, that would surely help to explain how bad he’s been lately, though doesn’t make me feel any better about the three year deal he got. If there’s a concern here, it’s that any further rotation injuries could make it harder to limit the innings of Rubby de la Rosa, which is a conversation we’re going to need to have at some point.
Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw are All Stars. Congrats to both. Both are well deserved, and I don’t see much of a case that any other Dodgers were snubbed.
Believe It Or Not, Ted Lilly’s Problem Isn’t Homers
June 28, 2011 at 8:55 pm | Posted in Ted Lilly | 31 Comments
Warning: you may want to take small children and the elderly out of the room before viewing the logs of Ted Lilly‘s last three starts.
| Date | Opp | Rslt | IP | H | R | BB | SO | HR | GSc | SB | CS | 2B |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17 | HOU | L,3-7 | 5.1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Jun 22 | DET | L,5-7 | 4.2 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jun 28 | MIN | L,4-6 | 4.2 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
Wow, it’s almost like his completely unsustainable run after joining the Dodgers last year… was completely unsustainable. Here’s the thing, though; though I was against his three-year deal in the offseason and am even more so now, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that he’s not soley to blame here. (Except for the stolen bases, that is, which are getting embarrassing.) Heading into tonight, his 1.5 HR/9 was exactly the same as it was last year, and is essentially the same as his career 1.4/9 mark. Though he didn’t record a walk or a whiff tonight, the first time in his career he’s gone at least four innings without doing either, his 3.78 K/BB entering the game was identical to 2010 (3.77) and a good deal better than his career average (2.57). His velocity (a tick under 87) is the same as last year, as is his percentage of fastballs thrown (56%).
So what’s going on? Well, it appears to be two issues. First, despite the fact that I mentioned his K/BB hasn’t changed, he’s definitely missing fewer bats. He’s striking out more than a man less per nine innings, and his swinging strike percentage has sunk from 9.5% in 2009 to 8.9% in 2010 to 7.5% this year – and that last number is sure to fall further when tonight’s game is factored in. He’s walking fewer than he ever has as well, so that’s how the K/BB stays lower.
If you’re striking out fewer, you’re relying more on your defense, and that’s where we run into our second problem. According to Baseball Prospectus‘ “Defensive Efficiency”, the Dodgers currently rank 28th in MLB as far as turning balls into outs. So you’re seeing exactly what you’d expect to see when you have a pitcher who isn’t striking people out, and isn’t getting support from his defense. The problem is that I’m not sure how we see either of those items changing any time soon, particularly since Lilly is still signed up for his age-36 and age-37 seasons the next two years.
Otherwise, the offense was generally quiet outside of a brief burst in the 5th inning. It probably didn’t affect the outcome of the game, but I have to question Don Mattingly’s pinch-hitting decisions in the final inning, with Aaron Miles (who had hit his first homer since 2008 earlier), A.J. Ellis, and Jamey Carroll coming up. Ellis had a hit and as we all know, has excellent on-base skills, but Mattingly sent up Trent Oeltjen in his place. Fine, I suppose; Oeltjen is a lefty with more power and had a great game yesterday. The Aussie drew a walk, and with one out Carroll stepped to the plate… except, not.
Instead of the guy with the .372 OBP who had already gotten on base twice tonight, the guy who just this afternoon GM Ned Colletti touted as a deserving All-Star, Mattingly chose to send up Dioner Navarro, presumably because there’s some sort of federal law that requires Navarro to bat in the 9th with the game on the line. (I’m joking, but only partially.) I get that Navarro could hit lefty against Matt Capps, but you’re not going to sell me on him as a power threat (three dingers over last two years) or any kind of offensive force (he is hitting .168, remember). Navarro, predictably, topped a ball that went all of about 50 feet and was thrown out. Carroll was skipped for that. Without Carroll, Tony Gwynn walked, but Casey Blake grounded out to end the game.
I’ve generally been a big fan of Don Mattingly, but I will never understand his fascination with Dioner Navarro.
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