Category Archives: Tony Gwynn

Tony Gwynn Saves the Day

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I missed most of last night’s game because I was at a wedding, but from what I’ve seen it was a crazy affair. (The game, not the wedding.)

Still, when a game ends like this, and especially when it ends on a great play by someone who has received little praise around here because he’s contributed next to nothing all season, it’s something I can’t let go by. After Scott Elbert and especially Matt Guerrier did their best to choke away a six-run lead in the 8th, and Javy Guerra allowed five baserunners in the 9th, Charlie Blackmon came up as the tying run with the bases loaded and two outs. He sliced a ball to left. It looked for all the world that it would land and possibly skip to the wall, scoring at least two.

Ladies and gentlemen, for the second time this season, Tony Gwynn. (click to animate.)

Who’s Going to Lose Their Job When Marcus Thames Returns?

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Over the weekend, the Dodgers got some good news as far as the continued recovery of their legions of injured, as both Vicente Padilla and Marcus Thames began their rehab stints in the minors. Padilla threw two scoreless innings for Rancho Cucamonga, striking out one and allowing a hit, and he was reportedly back at Dodger Stadium for Monday’s game. He’ll likely need another outing or two in the minors, but may not be far from returning. When he does, there’s no shortage of young relievers in the current bullpen who could be sent back down to the minors to clear up a spot. (My money’s on Ramon Troncoso.)

Thames homered in his Albuquerque debut on Sunday, then went 0-4 on Monday. He played left field both days, and considering he was able to play in the field on consecutive days to start his rehab, we can do a bit of speculation and infer that he’ll be ready to return soon. But unlike with Padilla, there’s no obvious answer to the question of how he gets put back on the roster. So the question must be asked: who is about to lose their job for Marcus Thames?

Let’s get the obvious right out of the way and say that as much as we might pray for it, I don’t think there’s any chance that Juan Castro goes. If he’s cut, the club will have only four active infielders for the three non-1B spots in Casey Blake, Jamey Carroll, Rafael Furcal, & Aaron Miles. All four are at least 33, and I don’t need to remind you of the various injury concerns there. It’s not a risk the club would – or should – take at this point, though we may finally get rid of Castro when Juan Uribe returns later in June.

That means – assuming that they won’t drop from 12 pitchers to 11, which is extremely unlikely – that when Thames returns, we’re saying goodbye to Tony Gwynn, Jay Gibbons… or Jerry Sands. Let’s look at how they’ve been used since May 3, the day that Gibbons returned from the DL to take Thames’ spot.

There’s no typo there – Gwynn has just two hits in May as we enter the last day of play, and has only 16 on the season. Though he’s gotten into more games than anyone, he’s started just three; he’s been all-but-exclusively a defensive replacement, and if not for the fact that he had to replace Matt Kemp against Florida last week after Kemp was ejected, he might not have even had the chance to get that second hit.

Gwynn’s lack of production and low-impact role would seem to make this a simple choice… except for one issue: he’s the only one capable of playing center field other than Kemp, and he’s the only plus glove in what is generally a below-average defensive group. Sands and Ethier are average fielders on their best days, and Gibbons and Thames are really designated hitters who have been handed gloves. If Gwynn is gone, what happens if Kemp needs a day off or suffers a minor injury? Do we really want Thames or Gibbons out there in the 9th inning of a tight game when defense is crucial? Were you that entertained by Sands’ emergency appearance in center recently that we should make it a more regular thing?

So that leaves us with Gibbons or Sands… and here’s the part I don’t think you’re going to like. I think it’s going to be Sands heading back to the minors.* I don’t like it any more than you do, but just look at how the pieces are falling into place. (My arguments here are just how I imagine the team might think, not necessarily how I’d look at it, of course.)

*unless, of course, another injury – real or imagined – pops up in the next few days.

  1. Thames is a righty power bat who can kind of sort of play left field & first base, as is Sands. If Gwynn is really just the defense guy, I can easily see Don Mattingly preferring a lefty/righty duo for this role in Gibbons and Thames, rather than two righties in Sands and Thames.
  2. Sands has been good – dig that .371 May OBP – but you can’t argue he’s been great. This isn’t Russell Martin coming up and wowing in 2006; this is a guy who is hitting .221 with two homers. (This is where you chime in and note that Sands has shown much improvement since arriving and is tied with Kemp for the highest May OPS, at .784. I get it, and I agree. Just playing devil’s advocate here.)
  3. Mattingly seems to like Gibbons, who has started nine of the last ten games (partially, I will admit, because Ethier’s injury opened up more playing time last weekend.) Gibbons hasn’t done much to repay that faith with indifferent offense and questionable defense.
  4. The Dodgers have a long-established history of wanting to keep as many players under control as possible. Unless a veteran has been so bad that he’s just impossible to hang on to (I’m looking at you, Lance Cormier), they’ll usually wait as long as possible before dropping the DFA hammer. Sands has options. Gibbons does not.
  5. With James Loney showing signs of life in recent days – the Dodgers having shown no inclination to dump him anyway – and Casey Blake now available to be a RH 1B on some days (along with Thames), there’s less of a need for Sands to be available to play first base.

I don’t like to think it either, but there’s plenty of reason to be worried that Gibbons sticks and Sands doesn’t when Thames returns, as crazy as it may sound to send down one of the team’s top offensive performers. To be honest, I don’t think the Dodgers really want to send out either, but they’re also not going to not activate Thames. So unless you think that they’ll really go down to 11 pitchers, risk cutting Castro and have just one backup infielder, or cut Gwynn and risk not having a backup center fielder, this is the choice you’re left with – unless you’re a true believer in the ‘phantom injury.’ (Hey, maybe Gibbons is still having eye issues?)

Let’s hear your opinion in the comments and the poll below.

[polldaddy poll=5100277]

Tony Gwynn Saves the Day

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With two outs in the ninth inning, I had written a whole post about how tonight had gone almost perfectly. Don Mattingly had made out what looked to be my favorite lineup of the year, with Jerry Sands hitting second and in at first base against the lefty, pushing Aaron Miles to 8th. Ted Lilly allowed just one run over six innings, and Andre Ethier kept his hitting streak alive with a 5th inning double. Matt Kemp and Juan Uribe each homered, and the much-maligned infield chipped in with seven hits, three of which came off the bat of Miles. Even the defense turned four double plays, and featured exciting back-to-back diving catches by Kemp and Ethier in the seventh inning. It wasn’t all roses – Sands went 0-4, and while he did reach via walk, he almost immediately was picked off – but with Broxton looking great while retiring the first two Padres, it looked like this was a game that would be a nice kickoff to the short homestand, despite the presence of Frank McCourt trying to gladhand in the right field bleachers.

And then Will Venable singled to right. And Orlando Hudson singled to left. And Chase Headley singled to right, and all of a sudden it was a one-run game with the tying run on third, before a crowd growing restless. None of the balls were particularly hard-hit, and at least two of the three would have been easy outs had they not been perfectly placed grounders, but still, Broxton was on the precipice there.

Nick Hundley stepped up to the plate, and ripped a liner to left, and you can’t possibly imagine all of the thoughts that were going through my head in that millisecond. (Actually, you probably can.) That ball was going to land, the Padres would tie (or conceivably take the lead, had it gotten past the diving left fielder), and all hell was going to break loose. That’s what would have happened… had that diving outfielder been anyone but Tony Gwynn, completing the outfield trifecta of diving plays in the biggest spot possible. The defensive specialist had essentially lost his job when Sands was recalled, getting just nine plate appearances in the preceding seven days, but reminded all of us what his value on this team can be. (And kudos to Mattingly for ensuring that he was out there in the 9th in the first place.)

As for Broxton, nothing’s changed for me. He actually looked good in that his velocity seemed up, and the hits weren’t hit that hard – except the one that landed not on the grass, but in Gwynn’s glove. I’d still have no objection to a superior option usurping him in the 9th, and I still don’t see that the Dodgers have one, particularly since Vicente Padilla was less than impressive in walking two in the 8th. I think it’s safe to assume that none of those facts are going to stop the continued public outcry, of course.

One Day, Twelve Innings, Two Wins

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…and one bizarre ending, as Chase Headley ran down Casey Blake in the nightcap, getting called out for interference. Can’t say I’ve seen that before. The Dodgers, improbably, are just a half game out of first, despite being the only club in the NL West with a negative run differential (-5) – not that either standings or run totals matter all that much just a week into the season.

Still, tonight was a night full of positives, so let’s focus on the heroes. Guys like…

Matt Kemp. Three hits in the first game, three hits in the second game, four steals on the day. Four! You know as well as I do that we’re not going to get too giddy about stats this early in the season, but he’s 4th in MLB in OPS among guys with at least 25 PA. While we obviously remember that he got off to a good start in 2010 and wasn’t able to sustain it, his getting off to a good start was more important than anyone else, possibly excluding Broxton. Almost as importantly, he hasn’t been thrown out once, and the extra work he’s put in looks to have paid off in every facet of his game. Love it.

Hiroki Kuroda. Is there a more underrated pitcher in baseball than Kuroda? I’m serious, because when he’s been healthy, he’s been nothing short of outstanding in his Dodger career, and he never seems to get the credit he deserves. In some circles, he’s referred to as the Dodgers #4 starter, and while that speaks somewhat to the depth of the rotation, that just never seems to adequately credit what Kuroda’s brought to this team. He left one out shy of what would have been his third career shutout, but the fact that he got 26 outs rather than 27 doesn’t take anything away from his performance. (For the record, I’d have let him stay in to finish the job, with a four-run lead, though he was up to 117 pitches.) By Game Score, this tied for the 8th best start of his career.

Tony Gwynn. Two hits, two stolen bases, and two runs scored in the nightcap, after two hits and the game-winning RBI in the first game. Today alone shot his batting average up over 150 points, so keep that in mind. Somewhat troubling? His .353 BA exactly matches his .353 OBP.

Andre Ethier. Ethier’s been a bit overshadowed by Kemp, understandably, though he did hit his first homer of the season and is off to a very nice start of his own. That said – and I saw this on Twitter and can’t remember who said it, so apologies for stealing this – he’s 8-for-16 with 3 walks against righties, and 0-for-9 with a walk against lefties. I’m fully aware of the small sample sizes there, but I’ve been saying that he’s unplayable against southpaws for basically two years now. When are they going to get him a platoon partner and stop giving away outs?

Jonathan Broxton. No, it hasn’t always been smooth. Yes, the fact that he gets a “save” for getting one out with a four-run lead seems silly. He’s also successfully converted all five of his save opportunities this year, which I think we’d all have taken 11 times out of 11 if we were offered that over the winter. I do, however, plan on looking into whether the results or the way they’ve come about are more important, sometime this week.

Jamey Carroll. Stepping in for the continually injured Rafael Furcal (who’s now dealing with a wrist issue), Carroll continues to make me eat my words about his signing, pitching in with three hits today and more than one big double play at shortstop.

Let’s not, however, talk about James Loney, who’s now hitting .147/.179/.265, and as Jon Weisman noted at Dodger Thoughts, was actually asked to bunt against a righty with a man on 2nd in an 11th inning tie game. (To be fair, Loney made several excellent defensive plays at first base.) Let’s also not talk about Juan Uribe, who’s hitting .388. Unfortunately, as I noted on Twitter, that’s not his batting average.. that’s what you get if you combine his BA, OBP, and SLG. Though it may seem odd to be more concerned about the offensive production of a middle infielder than a first baseman, Uribe’s struggles are infinitely more troubling; while I had zero expectations for Loney, the hope was that Uribe could at least add some power, and he’s signed for three seasons.

The Dodgers go for the series sweep tomorrow before heading to San Francisco for what should be a barrel of laughs.

On Chad Billingsley’s New Contract (And Notes)

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Fun fact: over two years ago, on January 26, 2009, I wrote about Zack Greinke‘s extension with the Royals and wondered how this might impact Chad Billingsley. (This was before Greinke’s ridiculous Cy Young 2009 and Billingsley’s second half collapse that year, remember.) At the time, this is what I proposed Billingsley could end up with:

I mean, there’s no longer any remaining question about whether we want him around, right? So why not buy out his three arbitration years and the first year of free agency with a 4 year, $36 million deal?

And what did Billingsley end up with yesterday?

Source: Billingsley’s three-year deal with the #Dodgers worth $35-36 million, including buyout of option for fourth year.

Okay, that was pretty close; if you include the $6.275m he’s making this year, it’s essentially a four year deal worth approximately $42m. I say “pretty close”, because at the time, it would be buying out all arb years with just one free agent year, while this deal is of course buying out more higher-priced free agent years. (I’ll ask you to kindly ignore that I also said at the time that Billingsley was definitely superior to Greinke, and allow me to pretend that I’m some sort of soothsayer over here.)

In all seriousness, however, I’m very satisfied with this deal, and I think it’s fair for both sides. Billingley’s always been somewhat underrated in my book; of the 87 pitchers who have thrown at least 400 innings since 2008, his FIP of 3.42 is tied for 14th with Ubaldo Jimenez. That’s better than names like Johan Santana, Jered Weaver, Roy Oswalt, Francisco Liriano, and Matt Cain. Is that an ace? I’ll save that discussion for another day, but if you wanted to say that more than half the teams in baseball don’t have a pitcher as good as he is, you could certainly make the argument. (Kershaw, of course, is 12th on that list, with the best still expected from him.) This also provides the team with some cost certainty, thus avoiding not only the question of what kind of arbitration deal he might be in line for next year, but what might happen when he hit the open market the year after.

Eric Stephen at TrueBlueLA and Jon Weisman at Dodger Thoughts are both also happy with the deal, comparing it to deals for Ricky Nolasco and Justin Verlander, respectively, and even better, Dave Cameron at FanGraphs thinks the Dodgers made out very well. It’s a long read, so I won’t paste it all, but here’s the fun takeaway:

Perhaps most interesting, however, is the extension that Wandy Rodriguez signed with the Astros just a few months ago. Rodriguez was in his final year of arbitration, so he was at the point where Billingsley would have been at the end of the 2011 season – when his new deal actually kicks in. Rodriguez signed a 3 year, $34 million extension with the Astros covering the same years that Billingsley just gave up to get some security. His career numbers – 985 innings, 62 wins, and a 4.18 ERA.

If, this year, Billingsley threw 160 innings, posted a 7.43 ERA, and won just three games, he would end the year with those same career numbers. If Wandy Rodriguez’s deal set the market for what the final year of arbitration and first two years of free agency are worth, Billingsley essentially locked in a price that would be fair (based on career numbers) if he was the worst pitcher in baseball this year.

Perhaps he really wanted to stay in Los Angeles, and he had motivations beyond simply squeezing the Dodgers for every last penny he could get. Whatever the reasoning, though, it seems pretty clear that Billingsley left a lot of money on the table with this deal.

Barring trades, you can now expect to see Billingsley alongside Clayton Kershaw for at least the next four seasons. That’s a beautiful thing, and for the more optimistic among us, it means it’s no longer totally unreasonable to think that we can dream about a front three of Kershaw, Billingsley, and Zach Lee one day. I’m very pleased with this deal from the team’s perspective, and even if Billingsley did leave some money on the table, well, he also just made about $35 million, so fair deal for both sides. Good job, Ned.

******

One update to my prospective 25-man roster: Jay Gibbons is likely to start the season on the disabled list due to his continuing vision problems. From a pure baseball perspective, this doesn’t bother me all that much; after all, I did argue just last week that he wasn’t worth a roster spot, and this does almost guarantee that Xavier Paul makes the club. Still, after all Gibbons has been through (some of it self-inflicted, to be sure), it’s tough to see his triumphant comeback story derailed by something as unexpected as this. This is actually a better scenario than an outright DFA, though, because not only does his $650k salary become guaranteed, he’ll be eligible for a rehab stint in the minors when he’s able, and assuming that takes a few weeks, we should have a lot more clarity on the roster situation at that point.

We don’t yet know who will get the extra spot, and you could argue that any of 4-5 names are in the mix. My strong preference has to be towards A.J. Ellis, however, because all indications are that Hector Gimenez is an emergency catcher at best.

******

Over at Baseball Prospectus, Ben Lindbergh has put together a list of positions where contending teams have decided to go with decidedly unpalatable options – guys like Jeff Mathis and Yuniesky Betancourt. It shouldn’t come as any surprise that the Dodger left field mess made the list.  

LF: Tony Gwynn Jr., Dodgers (.233 TAv, -0.6 WARP)

The Dodgers’ stillborn left-field timeshare really deserves a group mention here, but while Los Angeles may have chosen to stick a fork in the position, at least its other two tines—Jay Gibbons and Marcus Thames—project to earn positive value. Gwynn can’t hit, so he has to be truly extraordinary in the field to merit a roster spot, which FRAA doesn’t think he succeeded in doing last season. With Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier holding down center and right, respectively, Gwynn doesn’t figure to play much at the outfield’s more demanding positions, but he’ll likely be the starting left fielder for as long as Jay Gibbons can’t see. Since even a sighted Jay Gibbons doesn’t present much of an obstacle, Gwynn stands to see significant time. Unless he rediscovers the competent stroke he exhibited in 2009 or turns in another defensive performance FRAA can be proud of, that’s not good news for the Dodgers, who might soon find themselves missing the “Mannywood” sign.

While I attempted to look at the positives for Gwynn recently, I did so with a fair bit of wishcasting and plenty of “if’s”. If he can overcome a horrendous 2010. If he can hit at even a mildly acceptable a level. With Gibbons out, Gwynn will get the bulk of LF duties to prove himself, and I hope for everyone’s sake that he can do it, but it’s not hard to see where the doubt comes from.

******

Yes, Jonathan Broxton “blew a save” last night, and while I can’t believe we’re even discussing a blown save in an exhibition game, I’ll point out that Ivan DeJesus botched what would have been a game-ending double play, remind you that the winning run scored on a sacrifice fly, and let Jon Weisman’s words describe exactly how I feel:

I’m seriously considering complete abstention from debating the merits of Jonathan Broxton for the time being. The season hasn’t even started, and already the fur is flying about his value. No, he didn’t do his job. Neither did De Jesus, Jansen or Lilly, but no one will question their manhood. I’m willing to admit I’m concerned about whether Broxton’s all the way back from his late 2010 troubles, but I just don’t know if I can spend yet another year arguing about the man’s courage, spine or gumption. It’s completely subjective, and people are just going to believe what they want to believe.

I agree 100% with Jon on this; for whatever reason, the opinion of many towards Broxton is so skewed that if he struck out 99 of 100, they’d be asking what happened with the last guy. Still, I’m not sure I have the strength to do what Jon’s contemplating, and that’s avoiding the topic entirely once the season starts. I’ve been one of Broxton’s staunchest defenders, and even I’ve admitted that his rope is short if he doesn’t get off to a good start. All I ask is that we be fair about it, and realize that minor league second basemen booting ground balls have a pretty big impact on getting outs as well.

******

Selected thoughts from scouts on the Dodgers, courtesy of Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune:

“I think they’re going to be offensively challenged, and defensively challenged. The other day, (shortstop Rafael) Furcal was 4.9 running down the line, third baseman bobbles the ball and he’s still out in plenty of time. Saw (Matt) Kemp misplay two balls in the same game recently. He looks terrible in center field. Kenley Jansen is pretty damn impressive.”

“I like Xavier Paul more than the Dodgers do and would keep him over (Jay) Gibbons or (Tony) Gwynn Jr. Paul needs a change of scenery. His bat is OK. He has a good swing and can run the ball down. Hector Gimenez is a just a good-looking hitter. I’d take him as a backup. Ivan DeJesus, he’s stayed inside the ball well. Sands, I like his bat. He has a really nice swing. He looks OK in left field.”

“I think Rubby De La Rosa can pitch there right now and he’d be fine. He was up to 97 and good angle to plate, good feel for changeup, and I think the breaking ball will come. I think this guy’s a starter, and I don’t think he’s far away.”

“I think they’re going to be battling it out for third place with the Padres, and the Padres know how to play better.”

“They could be a disaster with all of the ifs.”

******

New ESPN SweetSpot blogger David Schoenfield has been putting together preseason All-Star teams for each division, and today he touches on the NL West. Of the eleven spots, four are Giants, and three each are from the Rockies and Diamondbacks. The Padres don’t merit a mention, and only Kershaw (as lefty starter) makes the list from the Dodgers.