Category Archives: Xavier Paul

Oddsmaking For the 25th Spot

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Buried within the fifth paragraph of a story about Juan Castro‘s improbable homer yesterday, Tony Jackson may have inadvertently broken some news that could impact how the roster comes together (emphasis mine):

Castro is one of four candidates this spring, along with veteran Aaron Miles and prospects Ivan DeJesus and Justin Sellers, for the second utility-infield spot. Although the Dodgers are up to their chins in outfielders, some of whom can also play on the infield, general manager Ned Colletti now says there will be a second utility infielder on the Opening Day roster.

Though we’d long expected that would be the case rather than carrying a sixth outfielder, this is the first time I’ve seen it laid out so explicitly, and that qualifies as news. It would also seem to doom Xavier Paul to the waiver wire or the trade bin, though more on him in a second. If Jackson is right, that means that one of these four guys are almost certain to make the squad when it heads north. Who will it be? Let’s lay some early-March odds on this quartet.

Juan Castro: 65%. I’ve been over Castro what feels like dozens of times in the nearly four years this blog has been around, since he seemingly comes back more often than Brett Favre. I don’t think much of him as a ballplayer, but the man cannot be killed, and that gets him some credit, I guess. Seriously, though, I think I said all I needed to say about Castro when he signed his minor-league deal back in December:

I’m hardly breaking any major news by saying that he can’t hit, because everyone knows he can’t hit. He’s never come within sniffing distance of even a league-average OPS+ of 100, and he’s never actually even hit 90, and that’s what happens when you’ve never had a season where your OPS has topped .678. So Juan Castro is not a major-league quality hitter. We all knew that.

But what I was very surprised to find out is that Castro is one of the worst hitters in the entire history of baseball.

No, really.

Castro has somehow accumulated 2,834 plate appearances over his 16 big league seasons. 1,664 other players since 1901 can say they’ve had as many or more, lead of course by Babe Ruth’s superlative 206 OPS+. Castro, on the other hand, checks in with the 4th-lowest OPS+ of all time. Of all time!

Rk Player OPS+ PA From To Age G H BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Bill Bergen 21 3228 1901 1911 23-33 947 516 .170 .194 .201 .395
2 Hal Lanier 49 3940 1964 1973 21-30 1196 843 .228 .255 .275 .529
3 Tommy Thevenow 51 4484 1924 1938 20-34 1229 1030 .247 .285 .294 .579
4 Juan Castro 55 2834 1995 2010 23-38 1096 597 .228 .268 .327 .595
5 Bobby Wine 55 3467 1960 1972 21-33 1164 682 .215 .264 .286 .550

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/12/2010.

I went on to explain that while his bat is atrocious, he got on for years by virtue of a plus glove… which is no longer plus. Look, you don’t need fancy stats or in-depth analysis to know that Castro was never very good, and at 38, is no longer a major league quality player. You know that.

So why the 65%? Because he’s a known quantity. Ned Colletti has already added him to the club twice during his tenure, and Castro’s .277 average in 2009 is probably seen as useful, even though it was completely empty (he had just five extra-base hits and drew six walks). Despite the declining defensive metrics, I’m guessing his reputation outweighs the facts, and as I joked on Twitter yesterday, the homer off Jeff Francis almost certainly carries more weight than it ought to. If anything, putting him at 65% might be too low.

Aaron Miles, 20%. With the exception of the Dodger history, you can – and I have – say a lot of the same things about Miles as you can about Castro:

No, really; among players who have had as many plate appearances as Miles had since he debuted in 2003, only three players in baseball have been less valuable. It’s a special kind of “not valuable”, though. If you’re simply awful, you don’t get to stick around for that long. Miles has really hit the sweet spot of being bad enough to hurt his teams for years, yet not so bad that he gets outright drummed out of the game. It must be his A+ levels of “grit” and “scrap”.

Rk Player WAR/pos PA G AB H 2B HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Geoff Blum -1.0 2839 902 2592 635 131 59 303 .245 .298 .369 .667
2 Mark Teahen -0.7 2994 753 2713 727 159 63 318 .268 .330 .415 .746
3 Juan Encarnacion -0.3 2653 663 2431 656 136 79 358 .270 .320 .437 .757
4 Aaron Miles 0.6 2574 796 2373 668 93 16 184 .282 .321 .354 .675
5 Shea Hillenbrand 0.7 2647 648 2468 705 139 78 358 .286 .324 .444 .768

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/7/2011But what’s really important here is the last sentence of the dodgers.com story above. Miles is likely competing with Juan Castro and Ivan DeJesus for a second backup infield slot behind Jamey Carroll. Since I don’t believe that DeJesus would get stashed on the big league bench over playing every day in AAA, that means you’re rooting for either the 4th worst player of the last seven years in Miles, or the 4th worst batter in major league history in Castro.

Um, yay. I don’t really see him beating out Castro without a scorching spring, though he does have that creamy veteran pennant-winning goodness Colletti seems to love so much, so…

Ivan DeJesus, 10%. We’ve talked about DeJesus a few times this winter, notably pointing out that he’s fallen completely off most Dodger top prospect lists, nor was he invited to the club’s winter development camp after not getting a September callup last year. Back in October, before Juan Uribe was signed, I looked at whether DeJesus should get a shot at the 2B job and decided that while I wouldn’t totally be against it, it seemed better off to have him in AAA or as utility man.

I’m no longer convinced that DeJesus has what it takes to be an everyday player in the bigs, though it should be noted that he impressed Don Mattingly in the AFL and has put time into learning how to play 3B as well. Still, he’s got an option left, and you know how much the club likes to hold on to as many players as they can. I think there’s also some feeling that after missing all of 2009, it’d be better to have him play every day in the minors rather than riding the big league bench. I’d still prefer him to Castro or Miles, but I can’t argue with that either.

Justin Sellers, 5%. Sellers is someone who I’ve never talked about much around here, and I’ve been meaning to for a while. Despite looking like he’s about 14, his 2010 AAA stats were impressive: .285/.371/.497, with 14 homers. Don’t put too much stock into that, however; while I can’t say for sure because the great minorleaguesplits.com is no longer around, the power displayed is almost certainly a result of the Albuquerque environment, since he had just 17 homers in five previous seasons.

Still, there’s reason to like him. Most of the reports I’ve been able to dig up claim he’s an above-average glove, possibly making him the best defensive choice of these four, and he’s shown improvement in mastering the strike zone. In two seasons as a Dodger minor leaguer, he’s put up OBP of .371 and .360, thanks to a very good K/BB ratio of 115/99. In January, Baseball America gave him the title of “Best Strike Zone Discipline” in the Dodger system, and you don’t need me to remind you how starved this team is for that right now. Though it’s early, he’s off to a good start in the spring, having walked three times without a whiff. Unlike DeJesus, he did attend the winter development camp.

If there’s a knock against him, it’s that he’s been exclusively a middle infielder, though with Jamey Carroll and Juan Uribe both able to handle third base, that wouldn’t seem to be an issue. He’s not a highly touted prospect, clearly, so at 25 and on his third pro organization, I wouldn’t be all that worried about having him riding the major league bench as opposed to playing every day in AAA.

The more I read about Sellers, the more I think he’s my choice, but I still don’t think he’s got any sort of a real shot here. Like DeJesus, he can be sent back to the minors, and with Chin-lung Hu in Queens and Dee Gordon unlikely to start the season at AAA, there’s playing time to be had. Unfortunately, I think we’re stuck with Castro. On the bright side, this roster spot is constantly churning, so hopefully it won’t be for too long.

******

As for Paul, this would seem to sign his death warrant as a Dodger. His only prayer is that he plays out of his head and Jay Gibbons totally chokes his job away, but that seems very unlikely. I can’t imagine that a guy with a .302/.380/.502 AAA line slips through waivers, so I expect him to be shipped off in the second half of March for a Delwyn Young-esque return. It’s too bad, because while he hasn’t been able to establish himself in limited MLB chances, he’s done nothing but produce. Is Gibbons really going to be better? Tony Gwynn? I’m not sure that’s so clear.

Is Tony Gwynn Jr. Better Than Xavier Paul?

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That seems to be the conclusion the Dodgers are making, judging by today’s signing. Gwynn, like Paul, is a lefty reserve outfielder. Gwynn, 28,  is a career .244/.323/.314 hitter. Paul hasn’t shown much in limited time in the bigs, but has been productive in the minors (.808 career OPS, a mark which he’s bested in each of his three AAA years).

I’m not sure I agree with the club here, but Paul is most certainly on his way out. The upside is that he should be worth at least something on the open market.

Update: Clearly, I wrote the above very quickly while running out the door. The more I think about this, the less it makes sense. While Gwynn is a plus fielder in CF, and that’s nice, the last thing the Dodgers need is another lefty outfielder, particularly one who’s not that great of a hitter – .304 OBP last year!. Is he going to spot for Jay Gibbons? Andre Ethier? Of course not. What they needed was two righty outfielders, not to replace the extra lefty outfielder they didn’t need with a lesser version.

On the other hand, this should put an end to any and all Scott Podsednik discussions.

Xavier Paul’s Fielding Just Cost John Moses a Job

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Normally, a minor-league hitting coach losing his job isn’t something I’d spend much time on. However, I was taken aback by what former Isotope hitting coach John Moses told Tony Jackson about why he was let go:

“They said it was because [Dodgers prospect] Xavier Paul didn’t improve in the outfield,” said Moses, who also had the responsibility of working with outfielders at the Dodgers’ Triple-A Albuquerque affiliate. “I was shocked, let’s put it that way. A lot of people were. I think the job I did spoke for itself, if you look at the things that happened offensively over the last three years. … But the way I look at it is, it’s their loss.”

Now, I have no idea if Moses did a good job, and neither do you – though Paul did have some outfield adventures in his short time with the Dodgers. It’s kind of shocking to a specific player’s skill called out like that, though, isn’t it? That’s probably a conversation the Dodgers would have preferred to remain private, though perhaps the public nature will motivate Paul to improve.

******

As you’ve probably seen, the Dodgers elected to pick up their half of Scott Podsednik‘s mutual 2011 option today. He has until midnight Thursday to decide to stay in Los Angeles for a $2m salary or test free agency. You don’t need me to remind you how lousy he was for the Dodgers, or how much I don’t want to see him back. Fortunately, most observers seem to think he’ll turn down the option and look elsewhere. If he remains, well, Ken Gurnick has some ideas about his role:

With Matt Kemp in center field and Andre Ethier in right, Podsednik could be the starter in left field, work in a platoon with Casey Blake if the Dodgers acquire a power-hitting third baseman or be a fourth outfielder if the Dodgers acquire a power bat to play left.

Obviously, Podsednik as an everyday starter would be a disaster, and moving Blake to left field seems unlikely. As a 4th outfielder, though? I suppose you could do worse as a guy with a bit of speed off the bench, though he’s a poor defensive outfielder. For $2m, it’s not the end of the world, but what I do find most interesting is what that’d mean for the makeup of the roster. Like Ethier, Podsednik’s a lefty batter. Most think that Jay Gibbons will have a spot, and Paul’s out of options, so something will need to be done with him as well. Certainly, not all of these guys are going to make the roster, but they’re all lefties, so if Podsednik does return, that may be the end of Paul as a Dodger right there.

MSTI’s 2010 in Review: Right Field

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Andre Ethier (B+)
.292/.364/.493 .857 23hr 1.9 WAR

Looking back, one thing strikes me about Ethier’s season, and that’s that I barely talked about him at all in the second half. I pointed out that he got on base six times in an August game, but otherwise, the focus was always in other areas. That’s partly because the team’s overall collapse and the series of terrible trades overwhelmed our attention, but also because Ethier could never re-capture the magic of his amazing start after returning from injury. That’s probably unfair to him, because he was fine over the last two months. But look at what we had been saying about him in the first week of May…

Ethier’s line is an unreal .371/.440/.722. A .722 slugging percentage! Not that I expect him to keep that up all year, but if he did, that would tie him for the 23rd highest mark in major league history. (And that moves up to 15th highest, if you don’t respect the work of Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, and Mark McGwire.)

Seriously, look at the NL leaderboard right now for the Triple Crown categories, and remember that this is a league with guys like Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Hanley Ramirez:

And that really could be his face on all three of those, because he’s tied with Kelly Johnson for the home run lead, and “Arizona” just comes before “Los Angeles” in alphabetical order.

And just a few days later…

I’m running out of adjectives to describe Andre Ethier. After three more hits and two RBI, he’s now up to .393/.452/.732. He’s leading all of baseball in batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS, and by quite a bit. We’re getting far enough into the season to almost consider this less of a “hot streak” and more of a “damned good player having a career year.” Of course, every hit increases the chance that the Dodgers won’t be able to afford him when he hits free agency after next year 2012. Hooray? Still, that’s a worry for another time, because what Ethier’s doing right now is historic, at least in Dodger terms.

That was after the game of May 10. The Dodgers won the next three games, with Ethier getting on base nine times, including three doubles and a homer, putting his line up to an absurd .392/.457/.744.  But while taking BP before May 15th’s game, he fractured the pinky in his right hand, which ended up sending him to the disabled list.

Ethier rushed back to return on May 31, missing only the minimum 15 days, but he’d clearly come back too soon. He was horrendous in June (.229/.280/.333), and from May 31 to the All-Star break in mid-July, he hit just .267/.313/.393, a far cry from his earlier line.

Now, it wasn’t all that bad. After his awful June and mediocre July, he was much better in August (.872) and good in September (.812, but with a .388 OBP). So it’s true that I didn’t pay all that much attention to Ethier as the year went on, and that’s unfair. While he was nowhere as good as he was early in the season, it’s unreasonable to think that he would have been able to keep that pace up all season long. Really, the only thing that Ethier did wrong this year was to get injured and come back far too soon, and even then it’s hard to blame a guy for wanting to get back on the field to help his team as soon as possible.

Despite the injury, Ethier had his third straight excellent season (OPS+ of 132, 131, 134 in 2008-10), making his first All-Star team and proving himself to be one of the top hitters in the game, despite seeing his defensive marks decline once again. However, he still has much to prove in 2011, because he was unable to make any progress towards his greatest weakness this year, and that’s hitting left-handed pitching. I mentioned this problem in 2009′s season in review:

This year, Ethier destroyed right-handed pitching to the tune of a .960 OPS and 25 of his homers. Against lefties, he had just a .194 BA and a .629 OPS and only 6 homers. It’s actually been a pretty clear downward trend for him as far as a lefty/righty split goes:

2006: .842 vs RH, .846 vs LH
2007: .830 vs RH, .816 vs LH
2008: .953 vs RH, .692 vs LH
2009: .960 vs RH, .629 vs LH

As he continues to improve against righties, he’s quickly becoming unplayable against lefties, and the four years of stats clearly show there’s not any improvement happening here.

In 2010, he had a .960 OPS vs RHP, and a .625 mark against lefties. He’s not getting better at hitting southpaws; he’s in fact getting worse. Since he’s turning 29 in the spring, he’s in his prime and there’s not a whole lot of hope to think he’s going to improve this flaw. Can you consider a guy a superstar when he’s not a great outfielder and you absolutely can not (or at least, should not) play him against lefties? That’s why I was hoping the Dodgers would sign a Jeff Francoeur type (good fielder, hits lefties) and that’s a question the Dodgers are going to have to answer as he moves towards free agency after 2012.

Reed Johnson (C-)
.262/.291/.366 .657 2hr 0.2 WAR

This was far more the fault of Larry Bowa than it was of Johnson, but I absolutely have to start with this, from mid-August:

Finally, we have the game-ending play where Reed Johnson tried to score from first on a bloop single. Yes, read that again, because it actually happened. What in the world Larry Bowa was thinking was beyond me, but for someone who’s not shy about talking about Kemp in the paper, we need to realize that he played a pretty large role in this loss as well. I can’t even accurately express to you in words how much Johnson was out by, so I’ll let Chad from MOKM‘s animated .gif do it for me:

I mean, that’s not even close to being close. I realize with a punchless offense you try to take chances where you can, but good lord, give the runner a chance there, Larry.

God, that kills me every single time. Back to Johnson, I was a bit surprised when he was signed, because every indication at the time was that the Dodgers were looking for a left-handed backup outfielder. Still, for what he was, I was okay with it:

I’m somewhat unimpressed with Johnson on the whole, especially coming off a broken foot which ruined his 2009. That said, the Dodger outfield has two big needs. First, they need someone who can be a plus defender in left to spot for Manny, which Johnson clearly can. Second, though few people want to admit it, they need someone who can replace Andre Ethier against lefties, because Ethier is useless against fellow southpaws. Johnson fits that role perfectly – for this career, he’s lousy against righties (.707 OPS), but is just fine against lefties (.841 OPS). That split was even more pronounced in 2009. If you’ve got lefty-killers Manny and Kemp, and replace Ethier with Johnson, that’s an outfield lefties should be terrified of.

So assuming that the money isn’t big and the term is just one year, I’m okay with this idea.

That’s more or less what happened, though Johnson was slightly less than advertised. Sure, he was good against LHP (.301/.324/.466 .790), but a sub-.800 OPS isn’t quite good enough to make up for an absurdly bad .520 mark against RHP. Then there was the lack of hustle that helped to blow a game against the Angels…

Reed Johnson ran for Belliard, and was pushed to second when Martin walked. Now Jamey Carroll comes up to hit for Blake DeWitt against the lefty, and it’s all on the line: two on, two out, Carroll vs. Fuentes. Carroll – who I hate to admit, has grown on me like a weed – gets the job done by blooping a single to left, scoring Johnson to tie the game.

…except, no. Now bear with me because there’s so much stupid going on in this one play that it burns the soul (and I hope you still have “Yakety Sax” running). Johnson, instead of running home like his house was on fire, jogs home. Jogs. With the tying run with two outs in the 9th, on a ball that was in no way a home run. That’s stupid #1. Stupid #2 is Martin, running from first, overruning second base (assuming that Juan Rivera would be throwing home, I suppose) and gets caught before he can get back to the bag… before Johnson, slacking it down the line, crosses home. I mean, this play was so loaded with stupid that FanGraphs did a breakdown on just this sequence alone.

…plus the fact that he’ll be 34 next year and missed a month this year with a back injury means I’m not all that invested in seeing him return. Which, of course, means that he’ll absolutely be back.

Xavier Paul (D)
.231/.277/.314 .591 0hr -0.6 WAR

I’ve been on the Xavier Paul train for years, arguing that a strong-armed outfielder who’s managed to raise his yearly OPS every year from 2005-10 and who has crushed AAA pitching (.320/.380/.502 in parts of three seasons) deserves a shot to make his mark in the majors. I still believe that, but at some point he’s going to have to make it happen, and the .591 OPS in three 2010 stints plus the inability to stay healthy is seriously imperiling that.

Paul originally made it up in 2009 when Many got suspended, but barely played before getting a staph infection while scraping his knee in Florida and then breaking his ankle in the minors. Still, I thought he’d be a great fit as the lefty-swinging 5th outfielder after the Dodgers signed Johnson. Unfortunately, the Dodgers signed Garret Anderson for that role, a decision which bothered me in the spring…

Of course, the correct option is right under our noses. Wouldn’t it be great if there was a lefty bat who’s likely to be as productive as any of these three, and not only won’t kill you in the outfield but has a strong arm and would be a great defensive caddy for Manny? Sounds like Xavier Paul to me, and as Jon astutely notes, the Dodgers have not had a good history with 35+ reserves. Let’s hope we don’t have to add another name to that list.

and in June…

By the way, Garret Anderson went 0-3 today and is down to an almost unfathomable .146/.170/.225. Meanwhile, AAA outfielders Xavier Paul (2) and Jamie Hoffmann (1) combined for three home runs today. Just sayin’.  Hey, George Sherrill‘s coming off the DL on Tuesday, with no obvious candidate to go down. How bout a nice DFA’ing for our friend Garret?

and later in June…

Finally, Anderson went hitless in five at-bats today, striking out four times and popping out to first. I’m just completely out of things to add to this situation. I hate to bag on a guy on his birthday (he’s 38 now), but to say that he’s a waste of a roster spot is about the kindest way I can think of to describe it. He’s now hitting .180/.197/.287. What do we have to do to finally end this already?

Xavier Paul’s hitting .345/.402/.633 with 12 HR in AAA, by the way, and three of those homers have come in his last ten games. But no, I’m sure he’s not a better fit for this defensively-challenged, injury-prone outfield, right?

and again in July.

Meanwhile, Xavier Paul is hitting .348/.404/.635 for the Isotopes, and lest you think that’s a stat line which is entirely due to the ABQ atmosphere, note that he’s still got a pretty tasty line of .320/.381/.534 on the road. This is the fifth year in a row in which he’s increased his OPS in the minors, and he has a 103 OPS+ in his limited time in the majors. 90% of the rest of baseball would be falling over themselves to give a prospect like that a chance at a full-time job. Granted, most of those teams don’t have an outfield like Manny/Kemp/Ethier, but to say that you’re going to play a husk of a corpse of a cadaver like the 38-year-old Anderson, who has proven that his value is zero, is obscene. It’s hard to say that the Dodgers are doing everything they can to win when you see situations like these, isn’t it?

As for what happened when Paul actually was up, we saw him three separate times. He came up in late April when Manny made his first DL trip, getting on base ten times in six starts until being sent back down in early May while being told by Ned Colletti to “work on being a big leaguer”. He returned for the last two weeks of May when Ethier was on the DL, getting on base ten more times in eight starts, returning again in early July when Manny went back on the DL. At the time, I wasn’t the only one ringing the “Paul over Anderson” bell, as Jon Weisman devoted an entire post to it at over at Dodger Thoughts.

Unfortunately for Paul, he struggled greatly in his third and final trip to the bigs, hitting just .188/.232/.234 in 24 games (15 starts) in July and early August. He would have been all but assured of another call-up in September, but was instead shut down with what sounded like a relatively minor neck injury.

So it was clearly a disappointing season for Paul, one that puts his Dodger future in doubt. He’s now out of options, meaning he can’t be sent to the minors without first being placed on waivers. It’s hard to say that he forced his way into a roster spot with his play this year, but his performance in the minors has been so good that you can’t just let him be lost for nothing, either. He’ll be 26 in the spring – he’s only five months younger than Matt Kemp – and he’s already proven himself in AAA, so all he needs now is to stay healthy and get a chance in the bigs. Maybe that’s with the Dodgers, and maybe it’s not, but he’s at least earned the opportunity to not be passed over for another washed-up veteran again.

******

Next! Clayton Kershaw is awesome! Chad Billingsley proves his doubters wrong! Hiroki Kuroda will be missed! It’s starting pitchers, part 1!

So That’s How You Stop a 10-Game Losing Streak

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…you play the Dodgers. Vicente Padilla was allowed to go just 59 pitches deep, allowing three runs in four innings, before Joe Torre decided to empty the bullpen. Ronald Belisario, George Sherrill, Octavio Dotel, Jonathan Broxton, & Kenley Jansen all paraded in in hopes of keeping the game close; other than Broxton, all did, particularly Jansen, who struck out the side. Broxton’s velocity was there tonight, but his control was once again off, unless he really meant to park meatballs down the middle. At least we don’t have to hear people say “it’s the pressure of the 9th inning” tonight, right?

As for the offense? Well, nine hits is nice enough, but once again they didn’t do anything with them. One of the two runs came off of a Scott Podsednik homer, which would have been impressive if it weren’t so terrifying that it increases his chances of being retained to lead off every day in 2011. Besides that, John Lindsey didn’t get to bat off the bench, but Ronnie Belliard, Jamey Carroll, Jay Gibbons, & Reed Johnson all did, and not a single one got on base.

Really, it’s the same old same old. The pitching was acceptable, and the offense was useless. There really can’t be any argument that this lineup is not the same without Manny; now, since I said it was time to let him go I can’t complain about that too much, but it’s time to admit that it’s not happening this year, and to start playing some of the new guys. (Well, it was time for that a month ago, but still).

Considering that (other than the sweep of the woeful Brewers) the Dodgers have lost two of three in each of the last four series against NL contenders (CIN, COL, PHI, SFG), we can at least hope they’ll split the next two.

******

Tony Jackson reports that Australian outfielder Trent Oeltjen will be called up from ABQ on Tuesday. He will be, I believe, the third fourth Australian to play for the Dodgers, after Luke Prokopec and Jeff Williams (and Craig Shipley, who I initially omitted). Williams somehow managed to play in parts of four seasons for LA (1999-02) without my having any recollection of him at all, though that’s probably because he pitched in just 37 games in that time, and it overlapped with my college career, in which I paid little attention to the FOX-led Dodgers.

As for Oeltjen, he was signed by the Dodgers in July after being released from Milwaukee’s AAA club. Oeltjen’s had his share of success at the plate, putting up OPS of .823, .862, and .906 in AAA the last three seasons, spent with farm clubs of Arizona, Milwaukee and LA. Judging by the quotes from Brewers exec Gord Ash that I linked when he was signed, he’s a pretty lousy defensive outfielder, which is what’s holding him back from the majors. (Though it didn’t stop him from starting four games in CF for the DBacks last year). The outfield is pretty crowded right now, so I doubt he sees much of a chance, but he’s auditioning for a bench job in 2011, just like everyone else.

The 40-man roster is full, so unless there’s an unexpected DFA in store, I’d think that Xavier Paul is called up and placed on the 60-day DL, as he’s out for the season with a neck injury.