Yet absolutely none of that matters today, because we’ve been lucky enough to receive this gift from the lords of high comedy: Guerra & Loney photobombing celebrities and randoms at the Eastbound & Down premiere party. What’s that, you say? Loney popping up behind random girls doesn’t do anything for you? How about Guerra photobombing Marilyn Manson, of all people – twice?

Frankly, if the shot of Guerra leaning around the pole (#2 in the set) hasn’t become a widely-known Photoshopped meme by morning, we’ve all failed.

One of my favorite television moments from when I was a teenager was when Norm MacDonald returned to host Saturday Night Live in late 1999, less than two years after he’d been fired from the show. Norm dedicated his monologue to trying to figure out how he’d managed to go from unemployed to headlining the show in such a short period of time, finally coming to this pointed realization:

So I wondered, how did I go in a year and half from being not funny enough to be even allowed in the building, to being so funny that I’m now hosting the show? How did I suddenly get so goddamn funny? It was inexplicable to me, because, a year and a half, let’s face it, is not enough time for a dude to learn how to be funny! Then it occurred to me… I haven’t gotten funnier. The show… has gotten really bad! So, yeah, I’m funny compared to, you know, well, you’ll see later. Okay, so let’s recap. The bad news is: I’m still not funny. The good news is: the show blows!

I’m an admitted Norm fanboy, so I’ve had that speech bouncing around my head (particularly the “bad news, good news” line) for years. I bring it up today because I started thinking about what to expect from James Loney this year – trust me, there’s a connection that will make sense in a second – and that’s exactly the line I started thinking about.

You see, the National League in 2012 has all of a sudden found itself in a severe drought when it comes to non-Joey Votto options at first base, traditionally one of the most productive offensive players in the lineup if you’re doing it right. (Which means that other than one good year from Nomar Garciaparra in 2006, the Dodgers haven’t been “doing it right” since… what, a few good years from Eric Karros in the 90s? Steve Garvey before that?) Albert Pujols is off from St. Louis to Anaheim, and Prince Fielder joined him in the American League with Detroit. The other notable masher at the position, Ryan Howard, is probably going to miss several months recovering from his Achilles injury – even before that he wasn’t as valuable as most believe anyway – and it’s anyone’s guess as to what his NL East colleagues in Ike Davis and Adam LaRoche can do after missing most of 2011 with serious injuries. A league that once had Pujols, Fielder, Howard, Adrian Gonzalez, and Adam Dunn & Derrek Lee when they were still productive now has only Votto and a whole lot of question marks.

This is a league where if the season began today, the collection of starting first basemen might very well include Bryan LaHair, Mat Gamel, Ty Wigginton (or Jim Thome!), Jesus Guzman, Aubrey Huff, Carlos Lee, and Garrett Jones. (“I’ll take ‘guys who aren’t Lyle Overbay‘ for $200, Alex.”) I know that won’t be precisely the list – hey, maybe Brandon Belt or Yonder Alonso can beat out the incumbents this time around – but it’s not far off, and it’s hardly intimidating. Even the teams with first basemen coming off productive years have to worry about advancing age – I’m on your lawn, Todd Helton & Lance Berkman – or sophomore slumps from solid-but-hardly-elite youngsters like Freddie Freeman & Paul Goldschmidt.

Look at it this way: the average line from all NL first basemen last season was .270/.350/.450 (.801), narrowly beating out right field for the top offensive position in the league. Now take out 692 plate appearances of .981 performance from Fielder and replace them with Gamel, who is just a year younger but has still managed just a .684 OPS in parts of four seasons with the Brewers as he’s been unable to prove he’s more than a Quad-A player. Take out Pujols and replace him with Berkman, who actually outperformed Pujols last season as Albert dealt with a wrist injury but who few expect to repeat his 2011 at age 36. (Bill James predicts him at .894 next year, slightly less than what Pujols was able to do.) Take out some portion of Howard’s .835 as he recovers, and the 606 plate appearances of .819 that Carlos Pena left behind in Chicago. Take out the excellent .336/.401/.601 in 354 plate appearances that Mike Morse had as a first baseman in Washington as he moves to left field, numbers which LaRoche can’t match, and depreciate some of the .850 over 491 plate appearances that absolutely no one expects the soon-to-be 39-year-old Helton to repeat. (I’ll acknowledge that if healthy, Davis should improve the Mets’ 2011 performance at the position.)

Taking all that into consideration, it’s not all that hard to think that the OPS production by NL first basemen in 2011 (and I shouldn’t have to note that I know OPS isn’t the best metric, but for a high-level look like this, it’s fine) is going to sink south of .800, a number that it barely topped last year with Pujols and Fielder. If everything really goes wrong – if Helton and Berkman really fall apart, or if Davis can’t make it back from injury, or if the Giants refuse to get over Huff, or if the new Marlins park is as pitcher-friendly as we’ve heard and that impacts Gaby Sanchez, etc. – it could be considerably lower than that.

And then there’s Loney, looking up at the group with his .288/.339/.416 (.755) line from 2011. He’s been the definition of mediocrity in his four years as a starter, with the only change being that in 2011 he decided being decent-but-no-better for the entire season was boring, and that it’d be far more fun to be gawd-awful for two months and then be red-hot for two months, with his final line coming in at basically the exact same place it always had. The problem was never that Loney was a terrible player (other than the first six weeks of 2011, of course), because there’s value in a slick defensive player who can hit 10-12 homers and bat in the .280s, but that the bar at first base was set so high that by comparison he looked terrible.

Now, it seems, the bar might not be quite so high to be a decent first baseman in the National League, without even considering that Loney owns one of the better gloves in the circuit. If he repeats his 2011 exactly, his total package could make him average or just-below as far as NL first basemen go. If he’s anything like he was over the last two months of 2011, he’s one of the three best in the league. (And of course, if he’s anything like he was in April and May, he’s on the street by June.)

Is James Loney really any better than he’s been before? Unless you really, really believe in the way he ended 2011, probably not, and believe me, I’m not thrilled about the fact he’s making $6.375m this year. But when you compare him to, well, you’ll see, maybe it’s not so bad. So, to recap… the bad news is, Loney likely isn’t suddenly a top first baseman. The good news is, well, just about no one else has one either.

…from Maine to San Diego…

Well, West Covina, anyway. Tomorrow morning is the Dodger Blogger softball tournament we’ve been talking about for a while, sponsored by the Left Field Pavilion. Team MSTI plays against Vin Scully is My Homeboy at 8am at “Fenway Park”, Dodger Bobble at 10am in “Dodger Stadium”, and Sons of Steve Garvey at 1pm in “Tiger Stadium”, plus the inevitable playoff games that follow our victorious trifecta sweep, led by manager Dave P. Kudos to Mike from the LFP for putting this together, and if you’re attending, don’t forget to bring an item of canned food to benefit the Los Angeles Regional Food bank.

Frankly, it sounds like fantastic fun – look at all the rad replica fields – and I’m sorry I won’t be there in person. If there’s a sequel in 2013, mark my words: I’ll be there. Not that it’ll necessarily help Team MSTI, that is. But I’ll be there.

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Oh, and Russ Mitchell made it through waivers after being DFA’d the other day and was outrighted right back to Albuquerque. No surprise there at all.

Seventeen years ago today, the Dodgers signed Hideo Nomo out of Japan. Nomo won 81 games over two stints and seven years with the Dodgers between 1995-98 and 2002-04, winning the 1995 Rookie of the Year and finishing 4th in the Cy Young voting in each of his first two seasons. The year before Nomo arrived, Chan Ho Park made his first appearance with the team and stayed through 2001. Nomo returned and was joined by Kazuhisa Ishii for the next three years, and though they each left after 2004, Hong-Chih Kuo made his Dodger debut in 2005. With Kuo now in Seattle and Hiroki Kuroda off to the Yankees, the 2012 club looks like it will be the first edition of the Dodgers to not field any Asian players since 1993, a sad state for a team once seen to be on the forefront of international scouting.

Enough about the past, though: there’s plenty to talk about regarding the future, both in terms of prospects and in the ownership process.

* At ESPN, Keith Law ranks each farm system in baseball, and I have to admit, I’m somewhat surprised to see him place the Dodgers 12th:

If pitching wins championships, the Dodgers are in pretty good shape going forward, as their system is loaded with power arms but is relatively light on position players.

* Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts checks in with an interview with DeJon Watson, a lengthy and fascinating look at a variety of young Dodgers who should be seeing the big leagues within the next year or two. My favorite part:

With the six-pack of Eovaldi, De La Rosa, Lee, Gould, Webster and Withrow taking up so much conversation time, there was hardly time to discuss others — such as lefty Chris Reed, the 2011 first-round pick from Stanford who has impressed Watson — especially given the need to address other areas of the system.

We talk a lot about how the Dodgers are really lacking in offensive talent throughout the system, particularly in the infield, and while that’s a valid concern, perhaps we do allow it to overshadow just how solid the pitching coming through the pipeline really is. In addition to the seven names listed above, you’ve got Clayton Kershaw & Chad Billingsley in the big-league rotation, Javy Guerra, Kenley Jansen, Scott Elbert, & Josh Lindblom in the MLB bullpen, and Shawn Tolleson, Steven Ames, Angel Sanchez, Ethan Martin and others making their way up. Even assuming the standard rate of flameout for young pitchers – this one’s for you, Chuck Tiffany, Greg Miller, & Justin Orenduff – that’s a pretty deep list of arms that ought to help stock the staff for years to come.

* Throw another name in the ring as far as owners go…

Michael Heisley, the billionaire owner of the NBA’s Memphis Grizzlies, has emerged as one of the remaining bidders for the Dodgers.

Heisley, 75, leads one of 11 bids that survived the initial cut in the Dodgers’ ownership derby. His bid, which had not previously surfaced publicly, was confirmed Wednesday by three people familiar with the sale process but not authorized to discuss it. (MSTI: Shaikin later tweeted that if Heisley were to get the Dodgers, “expect Jerry West to play some sort of role with team”.)

…and then take another one right out, because despite his own claims, Josh Macciello did not actually make it to the second round of the bidding. I think we all knew from the start that this was never going to be anything that would go anywhere – I believe I initially placed his odds at something along the lines of “less than Juan Uribe winning the MVP unanimously in each of the next twenty years” – but it’s not hard to see why his supposed rags-to-riches story really resonated with people. I have no idea if he’s really got the cash he claims that he does, but at this point it doesn’t matter – and he was never, ever going to get approved by Bud Selig anyway.

* Yesterday, Shaikin wrote that obscenely rich Patrick Soon-Shiong is all but certain to get involved but had yet to decide which group to partner with. Soon-Shiong is well-known to be a good friend of Magic Johnson, which is great news since Magic’s group is my preferred choice, though he did take a meeting with the Joe Torre group as well. This is really the massive wild card hanging over the proceedings, because not only does Soon-Shiong bring a massive amount of wealth, he’s also taking the time to choose the group he thinks has the best chance of winning. Whomever he joins has to be considered the overwhelming favorite… so lets hope he chooses wisely.

No one ever likes going to arbitration, and Clayton Kershaw is no different – he’s avoided next week’s showdown by agreeing to a two-year deal worth $19m. That breaks down to a $500k signing bonus, $7.5m this year, and $11m in 2013, making it an incredibly rare backloaded two-year deal from Ned Colletti which I don’t hate.

This isn’t really as big of a deal as it sounds, because the contract is essentially the average of what he was likely to get in arbitration over the next two seasons anyway. All it really does is avoid the awkwardness of having to go to the arbitration room and try to pretend there’s actually reasons where you can refute claims of his awesomeness, so that’s something, I suppose. Considering that Tim Lincecum made $23m over the same two years of his career after winning one more Cy Young than Kershaw has, it’s a pretty fair deal all around.

Kershaw’s eligible for free agency following the 2014 season, so this doesn’t completely buy out his arbitration years. That’s fine, but it’s also the route the Phillies have taken with Cole Hamels, and they’re set up for a difficult situation as he enters his walk year with no long-term contract in place. Obviously, the Dodgers are in a different situation – they have just one other large deal as opposed to several, and the ownership situation hangs over everything at the moment – but it’s clear that whomever is actually in control of the club going forward needs to spend every moment of the two years this deal covers attempting to sign Kershaw to the long-term contract we’ve wanted him to have for quite some time.

The Dodgers now have 18 players under contract for 2012 for just a touch under $88m. Include approximately $4m more for the various minimum salary guys, and the active payroll stands at about $92m, not including deferrals and buyouts. That number increases to $92.4m contracted for 2013, though to just 11 players – Matt Kemp gets expensive, and Colletti’s odious two-year deals all ramp up – before dropping back to $33m committed in 2014 to only Kemp and Billingsley. Obviously, by that point you’ll have other young players in arbitration and plenty of other holes that will have need to have been filled.

Update: Tony Jackson reports that $2m of this year’s money is actually deferred to 2013.

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Unrelated and obviously far less interesting, the Dodgers have signed 37-year-old veteran Jamey Wright to a minor-league contract and an invite to camp. Wright was a first-round pick of the Rockies way back in 1993; he made his debut in 1996 and was in Dodger Stadium three days later for his second career game against a Dodger lineup that featured Chad Fonville, Mike Blowers, and Greg Gagne. Despite being a soft-tossing righty, he has manage to last for sixteen seasons with eight teams, with two stops apiece in Colorado and Kansas City. Wright got into 60 games for the Mariners last year and actually posted a career-best 3.16 ERA, though the 4.30 FIP doesn’t quite back that up. As far as non-roster guys go, he’s par for the course and fine by me, though I’m not exactly sure I see how he has a prayer to make what looks to be a pretty full roster unless the injuries really pile up in camp.

Jared Kushner, born into a prominent New York real estate family and son-in-law of Donald Trump, has emerged as a candidate in the bidding for the Dodgers.

Kushner, who became owner and publisher of the New York Observer in 2006, has played a key role in expanding the family business beyond real estate. At 31, he would be the youngest owner in Major League Baseball.

I’ll admit that the idea of a youthful owner is attractive. It’s part of the reason why the potential of groups led by Joe Torre or Peter O’Malley don’t really interest me. I’d much prefer someone energetic and with new ideas, rather than relying on dinosaurs with the same tired direction. On the other hand, well, I’m not all that far away from being 31, and if someone who is just a few months older than me were to own the team while I am decidedly not anywhere near the stratosphere of owning a baseball club, I’d probably find that a bit depressing. (Thanks, mom and dad, for not being media moguls.)

Age aside, of course, there’s some giant red flags here. Regardless of your political viewpoint, I have a hard time seeing Donald Trump as anything but an enormous scumbag who ought to be avoided at all costs. Kushner’s father, Charles, was sentenced to two years in prison back in 2005 for tax evasion and illegal campaign contributions; the elder Kushner’s brother-in-law Robert was convicted on similar charges in 2009. (Okay, I’ll get political for just one second: Charles Kushner is a major donor to Democrats. The Donald, obviously, is a far right-wing Republican. That must make for some hilarious family meals for poor Jared.)

Now, Shaikin notes that the bid does not include Charles, but would be funded primarily by the Kushner family and… you know what, let’s just stop right here. Two nightmare fathers with criminal pasts, a guy who married into Trump money, seems to have little professional experience other than playing with his family’s money, has no sports experience… just no. If you remember all the reasons why I disliked Steven Cohen, this falls into the same category. I don’t want any part of this, no matter what kind of money they have.

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In a related topic, no one – Shaikin included, and he’s unquestionably the media leader as far as this story goes – seems to want to acknowledge the existence of upstart Josh Macciello. We still haven’t seen any official word that he’s made it to the second round of bidding, other than suggestions from his own Twitter feed, but it’s beginning to sound like he’s prepared to drop a ludicrous amount of money to get in the game. How much? He tweeted last night that his bid was “almost double” that of others, and then this morning Mike Szymanski in something called the Studio City Patch (where the picture at right is from) puts a number to that bid:

Sources close to the deal confirm that the bid he laid out recently is about $2.2 billion for the Dodgers and the stadium. Macciello would only confirm that, “with the money I’m bidding, I could buy three sport teams.”

Is that for real? I have absolutely no idea. But I do know that if someone like him is going to have a prayer of a chance in this, he’s going to have to completely blow all of the other bids out of the water, and I can’t imagine anyone’s topping $2.2b right now.

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In happier news, David Laurila at Fangraphs has a pretty nice interview with Logan White today, touching on the process in drafting high school pitchers and specifically speaking about Zach Lee, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Reed, Allen Webster, and Ethan Martin. Some highlights…

On Lee:

The Biomechanical assessment was very important to our decision to draft Zach. We rank guys on athleticism, and he’s in the upper percentage in terms of that. Mechanically — how his delivery works — he was in the upper echelon. The only negative he had in his delivery was that he threw across his body a little bit, but we feel that is correctable. A lot of significant pitchers have thrown across their body, so you just have to fix their line a little bit. But in terms of arm action, Zach’s front side, his lead arm, how his legs work, his lower half and stride to the plate — all of that — was in the top percentages. I’d say he was in the upper 10 percent of the draft.

On drafting Clayton Kershaw over Tim Lincecum:

Getting back to the original question, we didn’t have any of those guys ahead of Kershaw on our list. We took him based on the fact that he was the best player. From there, everything came together.

On Reed:

He’s 6-foot-4 and athletic as can be. He’s in great physical shape. He throws 95 from the left side, with a hard slider and a good changeup. We’re also talking about a guy with good makeup who is bright. To me, if he would have gotten seen more, I don’t think there’s a chance he gets to the 16th pick. I think we got lucky. Time will bear that out. We might be wrong.

The entire piece is a fascinating look at the draft process, and it’s well worth your click.

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In addition to Russ Mitchell getting DFA’d by the Dodgers yesterday, former Dodger Blake DeWitt was cut loose by the Cubs. I have to say, I’m somewhat surprised by how many fans I’ve heard from suggesting that the Dodgers go and pick him up. I suppose I understand the thought, because Adam Kennedy is both ten years older & useless, and DeWitt was a popular player here, but what people need to keep in mind is that DeWitt really hasn’t done much to prove himself in Chicago. A .265/.305/.413 line in 2011 isn’t a whole lot to lust after, and it says a lot that he was cut in favor of Adrian Cardenas, who has no position and not enough of a bat to make it anywhere but the middle infield.

All that being said, DeWitt is still young and was a plus defender at third base, where the Dodgers have absolutely zero organizational depth, so if he’s willing to take a minor-league deal and start in Albuquerque, then sure, why not. Otherwise, let’s not lose any sleep over it.

When it comes to the Dodgers, we’re all biased in one way or another. We’re in too deep. We worry if Adam Kennedy was really better for the last spot off the bench than any minimum salary has-been who might as well have been Adam Kennedy. We worry if signing a sorta-decent veteran reliever like Todd Coffey is going to push a sorta-decent prospect like Josh Lindblom to the minors for a few weeks until someone gets hurt, perhaps even Todd Coffey. (Perhaps that should go further, something like, “we are aware of the existences of both Todd Coffey and Josh Lindblom.”) We discuss guys who are inevitably going to come in something like ninth place in the ownership bidding as though they’ll matter. We complain about the color guy broadcaster who only works road games, but not even all road games, just out-of-division road games, at least those which haven’t been picked up by ESPN or FOX or TBS or MLB Network. (On the other hand, Steve Lyons is pretty awful.)

The point is, as much as we think we know, as much as we think we’ve got this team pegged, we look at them with far from a fresh perspective. How can we? We’ve been watching the same ownership/GM team for over six years now. Been there, done that, hated this, despised that. So at times it’s helpful to take a step back, get some air, and see what outsiders are saying about our favorite baseball squadron. At least, in theory…

Grant Brisbee, McCovey Chronicles:

Look, I’m a Giants fan. This blog started right as the Giants became the worst-hitting team in the National League and stayed there for what’s going on seven seasons. I have no right to make fun of another team because of how they hit, or how I think they’ll hit. No right. But I still look at that Dodgers lineup and think, “Holy crap.” I mean, holy crap. Pick the third-best hitter in that lineup after you account for position. Is it Loney? Rivera? Gordon? Uribe? I mean, holy crap.

Joe Lemire, Sports Illustrated (18th in power rankings):

The Dodgers very quietly went 34-20 over the season’s final two months to finish with a winning record. Now, 2012 will be a pivotal year for the franchise, as it’s sold to a new owner who will (presumably) allow for a payroll budget befitting a team in the nation’s second biggest market (choosing whether to extend Andre Ethier will be decision No. 1). For now, GM Ned Colletti is scraping together small parts around superstars Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw that should keep the team around .500.

Phil Rogers, Chicago Tribune (14th in power rankings):

While the Dodgers epitomize mediocrity (162-161 the last two years), they are as well situated with foundation pieces as any team. Matt Kemp, the 27-year-old center fielder who was runner-up to Ryan Braun in 2011 MVP voting, is signed through 2019; Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw is under control through ’13.

Tim Brown, Yahoo! Sports:

The rest – as GM Ned Colletti adhered to a $90 million payroll – was bottom-feeding at its most Pittsburgh-ian; from early November to mid-December the Dodgers signed Juan Rivera, Mark Ellis, Matt Treanor, Adam Kennedy, Chris Capuano, Jerry Hairston Jr., Wil Ledezma, Aaron Harang and Josh Bard.

Though Ellis is a reasonable enough guy at second base and Harang seems capable of pitching in the NL West, any exciting news would have to wait until April, when the new owner was due to be installed.

In the two seasons since the Dodgers maneuvered and played themselves to consecutive National League Championship Series, they’re a game over .500. Since coming up a pitcher or two short in two Octobers, they’ve finished fourth in the NL West, then third.

Know why?

They drafted Kemp, developed him, rode out the rough patches with him, watched him become the best player in the National League, and then – over an entire season – batted him directly in front of (deep breath) James Loney, Marcus Thames, Juan Uribe, Jerry Sands, Jay Gibbons, Rod Barajas, Casey Blake, Aaron Miles, Juan Rivera and/or Andre Ethier.

They drafted Clayton Kershaw, developed him, showed him the strike zone, watched him become the best pitcher in the National League, and then had the ballclub fall apart around him, because there would be no more fluke trades like Manny Ramirez, and there would be no more signings of high-end free agents, and there would be plenty of teammates who were simply too old or too young or too incapable.

As a result, the Dodgers have let a soft division get away.

Mike DiGiovanna, Los Angeles Times:

Worst: Mark Ellis, two years, $8.75 million, Dodgers.

Ellis, 34, is an excellent defender and clubhouse leader, but shouldn’t a little offense be a standard feature with this sticker price?

Ellis hit .248 with a .288 OBP, seven homers and 41 RBIs for Oakland and Colorado last season, and his 1.3 wins above replacement (WAR) rating was third-lowest among major league second basemen.

Ned Colletti’s really built himself a nice little low-risk, low-reward team, hasn’t he? There seems to be little chance, short of a crippling injury to Kemp or Kershaw, that we’re in for a 95-loss disaster. On the other hand, a whole lot of things have to go right – a whole hell of a lot – for this club to sniff 90 wins and do more than pick up an “also competed” ribbon in the playoff chase.

Update: Ken Rosenthal reports that the Dodgers have DFA’d Russ Mitchell, opening up a spot on the 40-man roster for Coffey. It’s somewhat surprising to see that Mitchell went over Trent Oeltjen or Ramon Troncoso; on the other hand, Mitchell isn’t very good and is recovering from wrist surgery. When he doesn’t get claimed on waivers – and he won’t – expect Mitchell to end up back in Albuquerque for another summer anyway, potentially meaning we haven’t see the last of him in Dodger blue.

Kuo was by far the longest tenured member of the Dodger organization, having started his career with one game for the 2000 San Bernardino Stampede (a club which also saw rehab stints from 41-year-old Orel Hershiser and 37-year-old Devon White). Along with the now-departed Jonathan Broxton, he was one of the two only remaining members of the dreadful 91-loss 2005 Dodgers from last year’s squad.

Assuming this is it for Kuo in Los Angeles, he’ll leave behind a whole lot more memories than you’d expect from an oft-injured middle reliever who managed fewer than 300 big-league innings in seven seasons. Sure, there were the multiple elbow surgeries and troubling bouts with anxiety, but there was also the out-of-nowhere playoff start in 2006, the greatest bat flip of all time, and a 2010 that was so overwhelmingly dominating that only one left-handed reliever in baseball history (minimum 60 innings) has ever topped it in terms of WHIP:

Kuo’s performance that year just can’t be overstated; lefty batters managed just six hits against him all season, with only one extra-base hit among them. Of course, his 2011 quickly fell apart as continued battles with anxiety and yet another arm surgery made his non-tender decision a given. I’m not sure where he stands in his rehab, but since he’s just a year off that historic 2010, taking a gamble on him for a minimum-salary or minor-league deal would be a no-brainer for any team. I wish that had been the Dodgers, and I would have thought that he may have not wanted to entrust his health to a training staff which isn’t familiar with him, but it’s also not hard to think that he may have welcomed a fresh start elsewhere, and Seattle is obviously an appealing destination for Asian players.

When longtime Dodgers move on, we often offer a halfhearted “best of luck” without really caring what happens to them. (Pretty sure I’m talking about you, Brad Penny.) In this case, I think we’d all agree that even if it’s not for the Dodgers, nothing would make us happier than to see Kuo return to health and mow down the American League. I know I’ll be watching.

Got that out of our systems? Good. As for Coffey the pitcher, he’s an eminently usable bullpen piece. 31 last September, he’s a veteran of seven MLB season with the Reds, Brewers, and Nationals, and he’s known more for his durability than anything else, having entered at least 69 games in each of the last three seasons and setting a career high with 81 in 2006. His career 4.17 FIP (which he’s beaten in two of the last three seasons) closely matches his 4.08 ERA, and he’s generally induced more grounders than flyouts over his career. Coffey heavily relies on his slider, throwing it 44.3% of the time in 2011 for Washington, and it’s really the only pitch he throws alongside a fastball that averages 93 miles per hour. He’s struck out about 2.3 times as many as he’s walked over the last two seasons, but most importantly, he’s got a huge platoon split, crushing righties (.540 OPS in 2011, .725 career) while being unusuable against lefties (.867 in 2011, .859 career), which is basically what we call “the Octavio Dotel special”.

So a durable, pudgy, entertaining ROOGY for $1.3m? Can’t argue that, even if you can make a pretty convincing argument that he’s a better reliever (younger, better FIP, higher K/BB in 2010-11) than Matt Guerrier, who received 9.2x as much cash last winter over three years. But that’s neither here nor there at this point; more important is what this does to the complexion of the bullpen. It was just yesterday that I was wondering what would change on a roster that seemed all but complete, and Coffey’s addition would seem to round out the seven-man bullpen. This may mean that the club isn’t convinced that Blake Hawksworth‘s elbow surgery will allow him to be ready to start the season – though it happened early enough in the winter that it really shouldn’t be an issue – but it certainly does complicate matters for Josh Lindblom or any of the non-roster guys who were hoping to have a shot at breaking camp with the club. That’s without even considering the case of Ronald Belisario, who is already in Arizona at the team’s complex, but will have to sit out the first 25 games of the season serving his suspension.

I’m not entirely sure that another veteran bullpen arm was strictly necessary at this point, but Coffey is useful enough and for the $1.3m he’s getting, you can’t really argue with it. Works for me.

Update: Carlos in the comments reminds me that the Dodgers already had a full 40-man roster, so someone’s going to have to go unless there’s another move in the works. The bell tolls for thee, Trent Oeltjen? Ramon Troncoso probably shouldn’t get too comfortable either.

Catchers (2): A.J. Ellis, Matt Treanor

Infielders (6): James Loney, Mark Ellis, Dee Gordon, Juan Uribe, Adam Kennedy, Jerry Hairston

Outfielders (4): Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Juan Rivera, Tony Gwynn

Rotation (5): Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly, Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano

Bullpen (6): Javy Guerra, Kenley Jansen, Matt Guerrier, Mike MacDougal, Scott Elbert, Blake Hawksworth

Even the questions about the final two spots aren’t exactly fraught with drama, those being “will Jerry Sands get the final spot on the bench?” (I say yes) and “will a second lefty reliever push Josh Lindblom back to the minors?” (potentially, but I lean no.)

But it’s never really that simple, is it? Last year we thought that the six-man rotation was overstuffed, until Jon Garland and Vicente Padilla each got hurt in camp and forced John Ely into an April start. We laughed at the NRIs, until injuries allowed Aaron Miles, Mike MacDougal, and Lance Cormier to all make the club. And who among us remembers now that Hector Gimenez was actually one of the 25 players who went north? (Or, I could ask, that Hector Gimenez was even ever a Dodger?)

Whether it’s an injury to an existing player, a non-roster invite (perhaps even a distant Ortiz relative) making a short-lived splash that is in no way sustainable, or unexpected progress in the ownership process which causes drama, something is going to happen in camp that changes the roster as we anticipate it right now.

What’s it going to be?